Welcome to NFL Daily, where we have finally arrived at the best weekend of football of the year. That's right. It's divisional round weekend. And to celebrate, to preview the best games of the year. We had to get on the best guests, and we decided to do it a little differently than we've done our preview shows in the past. We have one special guest for each game. And in some of the games, it's guys who cover the team closely. But for our first game, and let's be real, it's the best game, it's Bills and Ravens. I had to get on my favorite football mind in the business. It's Brian Baldinger of NFL Network and so many other places, including my radio. When I'm driving around, I hear you there, too. Welcome, Baldi. I appreciate you coming on.

Yeah, my pleasure, Greg. Good to be with you. It is a good time of the year. It is the marquee game of this coming weekend. So Let's dive into it. It's a rematch game, as we know. Going back to week four, it wasn't pretty for the bills. But as everybody knows, these games can be different week to week. So let's get into it.

Well, it's funny. You mentioned that right off the top Let's go then. What do you think you can learn from that game? Because I went back and it was probably the Raven's best game of the season for the first 12 weeks of the season. What do you think, specifically, that does have some carry-over should give Ravens fans confidence in what the matchup worked for them that time around?

Well, they just finished off the Stealers, right, Greg? So they played the Steelers three times in eight weeks. You can't know an opponent. I don't even know if that's ever It's not going to happen before. But three times division opponent. First of all, you see them on all the breakdowns all week long. You know that it's Derek Henry in the Lamar Jackson Run Show. You know everything. You can go out there to your walkthroughs, and you can have all your car drills And you know that we got a read option coming or we've got a misdirection coming off the read option. The Steelers actually, they have not seen these two guys before. They've seen them three times in eight weeks. The countdown by Derek Henry for 44 yards. I mean, there's Patrick Wien, Mika Fitzpatrick, and Sean Elliott all waiting for Lamar to go carry the ball. They're completely removed from the formation. You just go like, you can't make those mistakes. And so what's the carry-over? So First play of the game, week four. I mean, Derrick Henry goes 87 yards on a very first play of the Ravens offense. It's a wham. Patrick Ricard whams Ed Oliver, and Derrick Henry gets an Valley, and literally everybody froze, and he ran by everybody.

And so you go, Well, that can't happen again. Okay. You could start there and go, You can't start the game down seven, nothing, and give up the longest play from scrimmage by the Ravens all season.

Yeah, that was a brutal tone-setting game. If you remember back then, if you're watching, the Ravens started off with a couple of losses. So these games early in the season felt big to climb out of that hole. And I do think that gets to what the Bills defense needs to be at their best in this game and would concern me if I was a Bills fan like our producer Eric, is that, and you can tell me if I'm wrong, this Sean McDermott defense over the years. If they've had a weakness, they're very well coached. They're fundamentally sound. I think they're better in the secondary this year than people realize. But they're not a big defense, just pounds-wise. They try to play physical, but you look at the Ravens' offense, especially their offensive line, it's a big offensive line. You got a couple of ridiculous guards in terms of their size, and you just think size is a big advantage for Baltimore Do you think the return of Matt Milano can help? And he's not a big guy either. Do you think they can hold up physically just against this Ravens front?

They don't have enough fat guys, is what you're saying. They don't. I mean, Faulalele is 390 pounds. He's the right guard. If Ed Oliver is there, either in front of him or in the three gap or one gap, wherever he's at, he gets swalled up pretty fast now. Now, really, it's not like people have I stopped Derek Henry before. They have. You got to get him before he gets you. You can't let him get started like he did in the first play. When he gets that alley, like he did the other day in the 44-yard countdown, you can't let him get started because his speed and his ability, his light feet, even on the countdown run, Greg, I was just looking at his feet just getting through traffic. He still has very light feet for a guy that big. It's a rare combination. But then you say, okay, now you're at a mesh point, and now you're worried about Lamar. And anybody that saw Lamar last year, and you see him this year, he's significantly lighter this year than he was. He wanted to be faster. He wanted to be quicker. And that's what he's been.

He's been both. And so that's the dilemma is at that mesh point, and it could be out of a one back with an option with Derek Netjum or in a pistol, or it could be anywhere. At some point, the ball is going to be put in the belly of Derek Henry. And is Henry taking it? Is Lamar keeping it? And it's a conundrum. You can walk through it. You can plug all the gaps. And if one guy is out of the gap or you put too many people up there and he gets through, he can go a long way. So there's a balancing act. But the big thing is you got to get a lot of bodies at the line of scrimage and not let him get started. The problem is Lamar. And if he sees that, his ability to pull it and go, or just even in a drop-back pass grade, where he drops back to survey the field and he just sees an opening and there's really nobody to detract him. He could go a long ways like that.

Yeah. And when he does drop back to pass. I'm curious what you've seen out of the Bill's pass rush. I thought Von Miller had a good game last week. Greg Ruso, we're talking about physicality. He's a physical player, certainly. But I do think there's more vulnerabilities there for that Raven Jackson's offensive line, maybe on the inside, to get after Lamar Jackson. Do you think this Bill's pass rush is the group that could bother Lamar?

It can. I thought Von Miller could be a real X-factor, but I watched Rosengarten go up against T. J. Watt last week, and he pitch a shutout. He didn't have any problem at all. Now, they helped. They chipped them, and they did some things that would be a good game plan for any type, but not much less a rookie. But I thought he played really well against T. J. Von I've always been in not constant contact, but I've been around Vons a lot. I do a SAC summit out in Las Vegas. I've talked to him over the years. It was interesting. I was up in Rochester two summers ago, and he was up there, and I was just asking him, do you do a SAC summit with Epinesa and with Rousseau and Oliver and all the guys? He goes, not really. He goes, all those guys are good pass rushers in the wrong way. What I really tried to convey to them is the moment. When is the moment when you got to win? And I feel like Von Miller, he's one of the really rare guys that really understands the moment. It's a third down.

It's the fourth quarter. We got to get off the field. The game's in the bounds. Super Bowl three years ago. The game's in the bounds. This is when I got to shine. And I feel like Bon constantly preaches that to his guys. And so I feel like But if the game does get played a lot closer, can those guys win in a moment against the Ravens when they got to have it and they got to get Yolamar either chased or to the ground?

I love that point you make about Von Miller, who's one of the all-time greats that I've had a chance to watch. And his ability to get hot and to make plays at the exact right time, going back to when he first entered the league throughout the Broncos. Even when he was having bad years with the Broncos, he just had a sense of the moment that was unlike anyone else. And that's what this team needs to have. They've been through it. They've been to the playoffs. These two teams are so similar in so many ways in terms of their quarterbacks wanting to get over the hump, their franchises wanting to get over the hump. And it's going to take guys like Von Miller, like a Matt Milana, who I thought looked really good last week. Veterans who have been around playing their best at the biggest moments When you look at the secondary for the Bills before we flip sides of the ball and think about when the Bills have the ball, DeMar Hamlin has had a good season. Taylor Rapp got victimized a little bit. Christian Bedford is an underrated player, but maybe not coming off his best game ever last week, at least to my eye.

If Zee flowers plays in this game, and we're not sure as we're taping this if he will or not, is that an area you think Baltimore can get after there? The safeties, maybe getting, cheating up to the line of scrimage and then hitting them for some big plays.

Well, before I answer that, Greg, I just want to make one point about both these quarterbacks. And I was talking to actually Warren Sapp, about it this weekend at the Hula ball. And what you don't want either Lamar or Josh to be able to do is to get vertical. You want them, and that's to your point about Matt Milano and his speed. If Lamar is coming out and he pulls the ball from Derrick Henry and he's going East West, you want him to keep going East West. Or Josh, as soon as they go vertical, they're so good and they're so hard to tackle. That's when you get big chunk yards. But if you can flatten them, because Steph was telling me about playing Mike Vick, and you never wanted him to go vertical once that option happened, and he kept it. You wanted them to be able to flatten. And that's where speed, Derek Brooks back in the Tampa days, that's where the speed… Flatten them to the sideline. Don't ever let them think that they can get vertical on you and go north-south. That's one point I just want to make clear. But Lamar…

I said this a couple of weeks ago, Greg. I said Lamar might miss a pass, but he doesn't miss a read. His eyes and where he's supposed to go with the ball, he's rarely wrong right now. The countdown to Rasha Bateman the other day, there was a reason why Fl Lahrs has been the lead receiver two years in a row. He knows how to uncover, even if he's not the primary receiver. Both tight ends are excellent at it when the original Xs and O plays is now over, and now Lamar is out there. He's looking to throw first, run second. That's a shift from him a couple of years ago. He's really looking to throw it more than to run it right now. So that's a concern for that secondary in Buffalo is you You've got to make that decision, plaster the receiver or go after Lamar. You can't always be right, but at the same time, you have to be aware of the situation.

Yeah, it's such an amazing time for these two guys to be playing each other because what you're saying about Lamar not making the wrong read, that's such an awesome point. It also reminds me of how Josh Allen has matured. Ben Rathesberger is always the quarterback, I think, of the where he had his physical skills. And at some point in his career, it actually was after they were making the Super Bowl, the mental side of it clicked in and he just became a totally different and more mature and better player, and you're seeing that with both these quarterbacks, too. Not that they ever were awful in those areas, but of course, the experience, they're so much better with their reads. Tell me what you've seen out of Allen's maturity. I thought that performance in the wild card round was really typical of his season, not always having to go for it, but hitting the big play when it was there and his decision making and deciding what to do has been on point all season long.

Well, coaching matters, Greg. Coaching matters. Joe braided is an upgrade. Joe braided, I remember talking to Joe Burrow about him. He had him at LSU and they won a national championship. What Joe wanted, he wanted five guys out every route. Then, teach me the progression based on coverage, based on front, all that stuff. Teach me the progression. And Joe's a magician, but I think Josh has gotten a lot better at it. In fact, if you look at the countdown to Ty Johnson last week, it's a fourth and 2 play. I mean, Josh gets outside the pocket. And Ty Johnson, it's a great throw. It's a great adjustment. It's a great catch by Ty. But there's also, I feel like, as opposed to maybe early on in Josh's career, and even up until halfway through the season a year ago, I don't know that he always had the answers to the test when he started scrambling. He would scramble because he was looking. But now I feel like there's more of a definitive pattern of where to go. Okay, where's my back? Where's Kincaid? Where's my secondary receivers that weren't part of the route? I feel like if you take that IQ test, and part of the IQ test is spatial relations, and you take a snapshot picture, and then you got to remember where everything is.

And I feel like Josh's snapshots right now on the move are very clear about where his people are, are going to be. And that's led to a lot less turnovers than what he had in his past years.

That's why I would do bad on IQ test. I just know it. That's where I'm a dummy. A lot of areas I'd be strong, but I'd be so bad. You're an offensive lineman. Very often, they were the smartest guys in the room, so you'd probably do well on the IQ on the spatial awareness.

It's not my strength either. But I'm also be terrible in jeopardy. I can't think that fast great. I know the answer, but I need time. So the buzzer goes off and I'm still...

I need a little time to think It's good that Josh doesn't have that struggles and Joe braided doesn't. And yet when you think about this team, one stat that as I was preparing really stuck out to me from last week, Alex Anderson, who we've talked about on this show, they do six offensive linemen more than any other team in the league, and he's that sixth offensive lineman. And Deion Dawkins is playing tight end for them when they're doing that, and they just smash you to bits. One stat stuck out to me last week. Alec Anderson only played five fewer snaps, their sixth offensive lineman, than Amari Cooper. Amari Cooper also played less than the two tight ends. So they want to smash you, and they can, and they're in what they do. Obviously, Josh Allen adds a lot to what they do as a running game. When you're going up against this Ravens defense, though, do you think that is the most effective way to attack them? Because they are big up front, and you want to be physical against the Ravens, but their strength has been in run defense. Do you think the Bills will be able to get what they need on the ground with James Cook and Allen when he needs to?

I do. Aaron Cromer is the coach. Outside of Outside of week 18, Greg, they've started every game together. You go right across the board, Deion, Edwards, McGovern, Cyborg, Spencer Brown. They've started every game. They're very, very well coached. Dawkins took Benito, just took them right out of the game last week. I mean, they're up to any challenge. They know Chuck Smith coaches the pass rushers in Baltimore, and we've seen incredible development from Owey, from Matabike, Travis Jones, Kyle Van Ham. They're all playing great football. They They have been able to pressure the quarterback with just their front four. But I don't think it's going to be as easy as it has been in some of these games. This is a very talented group. They're very well coached. Yes, Alex Anderson steps in there in his role. They don't try to fool you. If they want to run the ball, they want to run the ball. They want to get James Cook going. He's an elite back with great feet and vision. It's a great matchup in the trenches between these two teams, run and pass. They've got their run stuffers there in Baltimore that can just keep Rokwan free and all that stuff.

But they like to pull their tackles more than anybody else in this league. And so that's their bread and butter play. They're going to pull Spencer or they're going to pull Deion, and they're going to start an extra guy to that side of the ball and try to play some power football with you. It's coming. Can you stop it? It's one of those games within a game that's going to take place on Sunday night.

Yeah, and the Ravens just have so many different bodies they can throw at you. Matt Abouke and Travis Jones and Michael Pearson. Adaphe always playing really well as a pass rusher. That's where he does his work. It's an incredible matchup, and I just would have a hard time taking the ball out of Josh Allen's hands. You want it in his hands as much as possible. And they do have so much depth. When I mentioned Amari Cooper had those amount of snaps, he was fifth in the wide receiver room in terms of snaps. It was pretty close, one through five. It's all close. They all have different roles, and they can all play well in their roles. Do you think they have an advantage maybe against some of the Ravens' secondary depth? Where do you see those matchups, how Nate Wiggins has come along, and Brandon Stevens, and maybe that's where Buffalo can get it done on Sunday?

Well, I think they're going to get Todd Johnson on some of the linebackers. I remember when he was with the Jets, and like the Jets do, they just let Where good players go. But he had elite speed, and he was a third back in that. He's got great speed. He's a great receiver. And so they're playing Detroit a couple of weeks ago, and it was a shootout game. But they had one of those backup linebackers off the street in Detroit. They got Ty Johnson matched up on them. They got James Cook matched up on them, and they went to work on their linebackers. And so I think there's different ways to find matchups. It could be a back on a backer. It could be their tight end. You saw last week, Dalton Kincave get vertical late in the game when they had the game one, but they got a 35-yard pass against man coverage, and he can run like a receiver. So they're going to find the matchups. They're going to get to them. And so it's your question of, can they execute?

Yeah. It's almost unfair when two teams this good play each other in the division around. I hate the narratives that are going to come after this game because one of these two teams has to lose, and it's going to be really It's disappointing. To me, there's five teams. It's these two. It's the Chiefs. It's the Eagles. It's the Lions, where if they're holding the Lombardi trophy at the end, that just would make a lot of sense to me. And they're all pretty close, where any team could win on a given day. I'm having a hard time deciding where to go. I picked the Bills before the season started, so it just feels like, why go away from them now? They're a slight underdog in this game. Maybe the Ravens have been playing better lately, and they've had the matchup advantage in this matchup over the years, but it's been a pretty magical Bills team. I got no questions about the quarterbacks. I think they're going to play well. Is there one thing that helps you lean one way or another? I'm not going to make you either pick it, but if you want to, you can.

And if there's a matchup you're just looking at, like whether it's Roquan Smith or whatever it is that you think gives one team an edge over another because they're so evenly matched. No, no.

I You go back and forth all day long. It's an analyst dream. You go to the kicking game on this one. Justin Tucker and the win. Can you trust him versus all the kicks that he's missed this year? Is he a player on the downside of his career? Can he play through it? You could go in so many different directions here. Both these coaches, coach with Andy Reid, at one point. You go all the way back to the nest and where it all started. And it's just a lot of different factors. And ultimately, both quarterbacks know that they're going to be measured on winning Super Bowl. And the MVPs are great, and it's an honor. And nobody's going to not accept that award, but everybody's chasing the homes and Super Bowl. One of them is just going to be left behind going, we got to wait another year. And it's just to your point, it's going to be incredibly disappointing for whichever one loses. And And it's always more than just a quarterback, but so much is put on both shoulders, especially if it comes down to a final drive. And who can execute that?

And so Lamar had the heartache of losing to the Chiefs last Last year, Josh has had that heartache of losing Mahomes before. They don't even get a chance to get there, whoever loses it. They don't even get a chance to maybe meet Kansas City there. Who know? I'm not right in Houston all, but you don't even know if you're going to get that chance to go meet Mahomes and Andy Reid. So the loser is going to be... That's going to be some real tears.

I know because we just spent 12 months just to get back to this point. It's the same four teams. And I don't put the Texans in their class, but it's just so hard to get to a Super Bowl in the AFC. It's like when braided and Manning were there, you had to get through both of them. But now there's three, and there's Burro sticking around, and it's just brutal. I'm leaning bills, but that's more to be real about just sticking with a preseason pick because why not? And because it's home. It is a little crazy to me that they're underdogs at home. I know it's only a point, but it is an advantage to be there in Buffalo. And they have been, as much as the Ravens have been through some playoff, heartache, certainly. The Bills have played even more of those games. They're a little more experience. Maybe they get it done. And it is crazy that it could all be anticlimactic. Either one of them could lose to the Chiefs in the end.

Maybe the Josh Allen overtime rule will come into effect. Yes. That rule was changed because Josh Allen never got a chance in over time to get the ball after Mahomes scored. So who knows? Maybe the Josh Allen rule will come into effect in this game.

Okay. Yeah. I can only hope so because this is the final game of the weekend. It is Sunday evening. We're going to be heading into the studio to recap it all right afterwards. I can't wait with Ravens fan Patrick Claibon, but it's the best game. So that's why we had to start this show. You're the best, Baldy. I appreciate you.

Yeah, thanks for having me, bud. I appreciate it.

I appreciate you. And yeah, we're going to stick in the AFC. After the break, we are welcoming in Seth Payne. We had to have him back after I said last week was going to be the last time we talked to Seth Payne for the season because I thought the Texans were going to lose. He's back on the show. We'll We'll talk a little Texans Chiefs right after this. Back on NFL Daily, staying in the AFC. And I had to have our next guest on because I'm eating crow. I welcomed him on last week, saying this will be the last time we ever get to talk to Seth Payne. The Texans will never be relevant again. He's headbanging. You know him from 610 Sports Radio in Houston, where he does The Morning Show and at Seth Payne Show on YouTube. It's entertaining. He's loving spiking the football on me because his Texans are in the divisional round.

They're in the divisional round after against all odds somehow against what everybody thought was just the unwinnable game because they were three-point underdogs. I'm still disgusted. Rex Ryan, everybody else acting like, Texas, three-point Underdogs. Nobody's ever pulled that off in the NFL. Oh, single-digit underdogs. Not even the high single digits.

No, I fell for it. I really thought the chargers would roll. How could a team named the chargers, possibly blow it in the playoffs?

Yeah, Jim Harbaugh had exercised all the demons. They just beat the Raiders.

Greg Roman in a spot against one of the best defenses in the league where the number two receiver is Will Disley? I don't know. No, I was surprised, and it was an awesome performance by the Texans. We'll flip it to this game very soon. But one of just the best defensive games, and you're a former Houston Texan defender, Seth, you must have loved seeing defensive football because I will defend that game. That was a good game. I know it ended up not being close at the end, so it wasn't a great game. But I was like, this is actually great defensive football from both teams, and one of the best for a while, and then one of the best defensive performances I've ever seen by any defense in a playoff game.

Honestly, it was midway through the second quarter when the or it was somehow still 6-0 because the offense wasn't doing anything. The Texas defense looked awful on the first drive, but they came up big with a third and two stop. But I was thinking back to 2002, the first year of the franchise, Guys, we won a game against Pittsburgh in which we had 47 yards of offense. And Aaron Glenn, future Saints head coach, unless I've missed a higher or something. Aaron Glenn scored two touch downs defensively in that game. We'd scored three defensive touch downs, I thought, All right, well, maybe this defense can pull it off. But it was going against Justin Herbert, who'd thrown three interceptions all year long. Yeah, everything that the Texans have been able to do this year defensively, which is they're very opportunistic. They take the ball away a lot. They came through big time there. But the offense clicking, the offense able to run the ball in the second half, we really haven't seen hardly any of that this year out of the offense. So the really encouraging thing is that, okay, maybe something clicked. Obviously, the Chiefs are a completely different ball of wax than the Chargers, but at the very least, maybe something clicked with C.

J. Stroud in the offense that this can be a different version of the Texans.

Yeah, and you guys got to be fired up before we even hit record. What did you call me? A bourgeois Patriots fan that I started to get-I said that you were back in the day, you used to describe the fan base.

It sounded to me like that bourgeois malaise of like, Oh, I have everything I have ever wanted, and yet I'm still not happy. Why are us Bostonians so angry all the time? I enjoyed it.

I felt like I enjoyed it. I knew I enjoyed it at the time, and I knew it would never get any better, which is why when braided left, I was like, Well, what's the point? That was the best it's ever going to be. The Texans are not there. They're climbing. They've never been to a AFC Championship game, right?

No, they're the only team in the division, with all the lofty expectations Texans at AFC South, they're the one team that hasn't reached a conference championship.

They're huge underdogs this weekend, and they should be because the Chiefs finished up this season. I know I'm falling into the trap again.

No, this is a This is different this week.

I think they have a chance. I do think they have a chance. I don't think this is like... There was one of those Texans-Patriots divisional round games where everyone knew they didn't have a chance, and they didn't have a chance. Then there was one I thought they'd be close, and they weren't ultimately. I think they have a chance in this game because we got to start on the defensive side. That's the fascinating matchup. When the Chiefs have the ball, when the Texans are on defense, this is best on maybe best. I think the Chiefs often started playing their best late in the season, actually, in that Texans game. I thought Andy Reid did a lot of good things against Demeco Ryans, where it was a bit of a coaching game, and every snap, Patrick Mahomes knew where his receivers had the leverage, and he always just kept hitting him. And I was like, wow, this is the Chief's offense I was waiting to see all season. The scary thing is, they did it again on Christmas Day, and they finished out the season playing their best football, and the Texans game was a big part of that.

How do you think they can be different this time around, the Texans?

Well, I think for one, the one good thing the Texans did in that game, at least, is there weren't a huge number of explosive pass plays out of the Chiefs. Again, it's regular season Chiefs versus postseason Chiefs. I understand the difference there. The weakness for the Texans defense this year has been in allowing some of the explosive plays. Part of that's because of youth in the secondary, because, man, Kamari Lasseter has been awesome, but he's also a rookie. Calin Bullock has been way better than I anticipated or expected. I thought he was going to be a two or three-year project, and he's played really, really well. They've gotten a boatload of interceptions, but they've also had glitches that have allowed some huge plays. We saw it in the Chargers game there with Lad McConkey in the second half. They just had a little bit of a glitch there. Really should have been a PBU if they had played it right. When it comes to Pat Mahomes and Andy made, scheming and finding their opportunities versus guys like Xavier worthy, that's the big concern. I think down in and down out, they can limit and hold the Chiefs from being too explosive because the Chiefs haven't been super explosive all year long.

It's some of that. The other on the positive side of things, they have Aziz Alshire this time, which they didn't last time. And I know talking about a middle linebacker, that's going to be the huge X factor. It's not going to be the one thing that puts the Texans over the top, but they're a much different defense with Aziz on the field than when he's being unfairly persecuted for playing football.

Yeah, by my Bosses, bosses, bosses, boss. We put him down three games. No, he is that important. I think in Dimeco Ryan's defense, not to oversimplify it, but the linebackers are the leaders in some ways, and he is that guy for them. You got Christian Harris back, too. He's been healthy, right? And that matters. My son's favorite player, and weirdly, one of the reasons... Well, favorite player of the divas. One of the reasons why he likes the Texans is the first or second ever football card pack he had, he pulled the Christian Harris rookie autograph card, and that helped him on what's been a pretty good ride as a Texans fan the last two years. You can't complain in a divisional round the last two years.

Except that, yeah, the Texans have this history of... They play They're really well in the wild card round. As much as we get to crap for always playing that Saturday 3:30 game or 4:30 Eastern, whatever, they tend to win. They've got a winning record in those games. Yeah. But the divisional round, It hasn't been so hot. Christian Harris, your son, your son should be concerned about Christian Harris just because he's had this mysterious calf injury all year long. He only played seven snaps in the game against the chargers. But he's week to week, I think. It's one of these that it flares up and then it goes away. But that is a big factor in just being able to line up and play a base 4-3. They're really not able to do it without Christian Harris. They don't feel great about the other guys out there. If Christian Harris is healthy and available and to play a lot of snaps, it could be a big difference.

Look at you. You found a way to turn my football card story into a sailing point.

To steal your child's joy.

My concern is Hunter, and Will Anderson, they just need to impact the game more than they did that first time. I know I'm basing it a lot on the first time around, and I want to take what the Texans did last week and value that. But it was so recent, and it was so much part of, I think the Chief's team we're going to see in this game, which their playoffs did start there. My theory is they convinced themselves, We got these three games in 11 days or whatever it was. Our playoffs start now. Then suddenly, they were a different team. If we win these three games, and we get this by week. Suddenly, Mahomes getting the ball out faster. I think that injury almost helped him, although he scrambled really well in that game. The Texans have been bad against scrambles all year. And I think that's huge because I doubt the Chiefs can run. That's one advantage I give the Texans defense. I don't expect Pacheco in that running game to get going because it really hasn't all year, and the Texans are pretty great at stopping that. So it's going to be Mahomes going through his reads ultra fast.

That's what makes him different than he was even five years ago.

I'm glad you brought that up because I had forgotten. That was a big talking point after the game was that Mahomes got rid of the ball as fast as he has all year. I'll tell you what, my goodness, I made a little joke about Pat Mahomes being injured and still playing well. I honestly just meant like, Yeah, he's got an ankle injury, but look at him. Chiefs fans are so sensitive right now. I did the YouTube video, and I said that my point was, yeah, he's done this before. He's had these ankle injuries. I was attacked. I set a record for numbers of dislikes on a video on YouTube just because they all assumed I was saying that he was faking the injury or something. No. Is he a little bit dramatic sometimes in letting everybody know about it? Sure. But he was definitely injured. He always does this. It doesn't matter if he's hobbled, he's able to run, but he also got rid of the ball very quickly. The big thing about that game was the Texans were getting a good pass rush, but they couldn't get a hobbled pat Mahomes on the ground.

That can't be. You got to figure out a way to keep him from just getting all that easy yardage, even when he's injured. I say it's easy yardage, to the shutdown run he had, both the setup to the countdown and the countdown itself. He punked some Texans defenders. He bulldozed some dudes.

They test you, too, with the quick throws of you tackle in space. And Lasseter, like Stingley, they're great at it. Maybe the safety position without Petrie, that's something you can attack more. I think Xavier worthy really found his role late in the season, which was the Rashi Rice role from a year ago. They stopped asking him to do stuff. That's where the big place could go. You mentioned being a little dramatic with the injuries. Now, your old teammate... Wait, were you teammates with JJ Watt?

No, no, no. I'm much older than him.

I lose track of the year.

No, I'm just laughing at how old I am.

I did have a theory in that Stealers Ravens game. There's a little bit of that with T. J. Watt, too.

He's a little... Oh, really? I got to go back and watch because I… Okay, real quick.

Just a little extra. J. J. Used to get a little grief for that, which he's one of the all-time greats. Still, people talk about Aaron Donald as the best defensive player of this century. And I still say I think JJ Watt's peak, those three years, was actually the best defensive player I've personally ever seen.

That four-year stretch where JJ won three defensive MVPs, his averages, various categories like TFLs and other things like that. His averages over those four years were higher than any number that any of those guys like Aaron Donald. I don't want to turn this into like, JJ Watts is awesome, and Aaron Donalds suck.

Aaron Donalds was incredible. No, they're the two best, I think. They're the two best.

But his averages were higher than numbers that Donald had ever attained in a single season. It was just freakish how productive he was as a defensive lineman.

So, yeah, I know I'm getting way off topic here. I do think they can win those matchups against the tackles. They can get a little quicker pressure. I think they can prevent the run, force the Chiefs maybe into some more third and longs, which obviously Patrick Mahomes is good at, but they do have a couple of cornerbacks that could make that difficult on them, even if he finds the matchups. I think it might be more of a Kelsey and a Juju in D when he's over the middle type of game. But I just feel like they're going to have to be special because I think the best you can hope out of the offense is good enough. So you just got to hold the score to 20. 20 or 23, or you're going to need to force two turnovers. Am I wrong thinking? In the play-off, I just feel like your strengths have to be extra strong, and you got to somehow win that matchup to give C. J. Stroud in the offensive champs because you can't just Did you just think that the offense is suddenly going to put up 27 points?

No, they just haven't consistently been able to do it. Even in that game with the chargers, the offense clicked with that 99 yard, countdown run. But it was because the game was only in reach because the defense had played so well up to that point.

That was their seventh drive of the first half. You never get that many drives.

The time of possession was so lopsided. It was bad. Yes, and I agree with you 100%. To go back to the old Patriots teams. I mean, this is an oversimplification, but I think it's true. The reason the Giants were able to beat the Patriots and turn them into a mortal team was because they could get a four-man pass rush. I think that's what the Texans are going to be able to have to do, which they did in the chargers game, especially in the second half, is that the pass rush, which was really humming, they were getting really good rush out of the defensive tackles as well as the ends. You got to be able to allow guys to sit back in coverage, and you got to get there. It got better. They started leaning on the four-man rush more in the second half as it heated up, but that's an absolute essential. Then they'll have the opportunities for their turnovers. D'amico, of all the playoff performances, I was looking at some of the grades of when teams were in man coverage. D'amico played man as little as any other team on Wild Card Weekend, but they were the most effective in man coverage.

A lot of that just comes back to Derek Stingley and Kamari Lasseter.

They were so good, and they can mix it up. You mentioned the interior pressure. Daniko Autry, like you, a lifer in the division that America forgets and had a monster game.

Yeah. And just like, I thought you were talking about the Pass Rush Monster part of me. He was definitely more than that. The whole thing about Daniko Autry is that he originally... The timeline was this. I know everybody watching was dialed in on the Texans offseason acquisitions, but Daniko Autry was signed basically to be the edge rusher opposite of Will Anderson. Then they found out that Danil Hunter interested in that was an option. They said, All right, well, basically, Daniko rushes from the inside really well. We'll go ahead and we'll sign Daniel Hunter to a two-year contract and move Daniko Autry down inside when Danil's out there. He had some really good snaps at defensive tackle in that game. The whole four-man pass rush includes you've got defensive ends that rush well from the tackle position.

Yes, shout out to nick Casario. Some of the ex-Patriots building guys do well. It's just the front office guys. The coaches don't ever do well, but Dimitraff did well. And then Atlanta, Jason Light is a former Belichick guy in Tampa. He's done well. Let's flip to the offense. And I know Chiefs fans will be like, Oh, this is such a Texans Leaning podcast. Where's our time? You've got enough time. You've got all the time. You've got your time. It's probably coming up. I don't want to doubt the Texans again, but it's probably coming up.

Let me give a quick message to Chiefs fans again about this. Listen, you guys have won three Super Bowl. All right? This is what comes with it. I know. Look, I personally don't buy into a single bit of any of the officiating controversy or anything, but this is the stuff that comes with wearing the crown. You're never going to... I don't know at what point people think that Oh, once we get really good, that's when we'll get universal praise and admiration. That's not how human beings work. Just enjoy the scrutiny. Enjoy, frankly, the delusional conspiracy theorized and everything. It's just this is what comes with success.

Well, plus your offense used to be one of the most fun offenses I've ever seen, and it's just not. It's efficient and it's great. It's the same reason why I would get a note. People complain in 2018, like that Patriots team, the last one that won us. By then, it wasn't as fun to watch. I got it. Just visually, it's not... I think Mahomes can get back there if they get the right people around them. Of course, it's not about Mahomes, but they're just grinding it out. That maybe keeps Houston keeping the score relatively low. Let's talk about the Texans offense before we go, because one thing in that first game, and yeah, I clearly went back to watch it, and so I'm really leaning into that of like, Hey, I did the homework. Because I think it's relevant. I thought they actually picked up Spagnola's blitzes pretty well. I thought CJ threw with anticipation. I know the Tankdel injury is what we remember, and it fell apart from there. But overall, CJ is so streaky as a quarterback, and I don't think he played particularly well overall in the wild card round. I think he did in this game, and I think that's what it's going to take because they're just going to send those rushers.

The offensive line played decently well, I thought, actually, against the Chiefs the first time around. He took a lot of hits in the end, but a lot of those hits, he was making completions with anticipation. That's what you need out of him. You just need him to be a real dude for four quarters, not for two or three, which is what he's been for a lot of the second half of the season.

No, and I think that's exactly. If you think about the Chiefs this year, where the first half of the season, they're winning all these close games, and you're thinking, Well, this is the experience they have. They're good in the fourth quarter, all that. But you didn't know for sure, and then they just kept winning and kept winning. And in that Texans game, I think it was the perfect representation of that, which is the Texans were hanging in there. Tankdell was having a great game until he caught that breakdown and his knee got blown out on the same play. But even after that, the Texans drove down into the Chief's territory, into the red area. But then CJ made a couple of bad mistakes, took a sack he shouldn't have. There was a procedural issue. And then the Chiefs came and just had just a clock-draining drive. All those things that, yeah, the really experienced veteran Championship caliber teams do. It was the way they operate in the fourth quarter. I mean, it was as stark as could be the team that wasn't... The Texans just not ready to be in that moment versus the Chiefs, just very comfortable in that moment.

So the whole four-quarter aspect of it and exactly what did the Texans do in the fourth quarter, did they genuinely take a step forward? With CJ, I think the really encouraging thing that happened in the Chargers game was it just felt like after the fumbled snap that turned into an Xavier your Hutchinson reception, it seemed like you let the game come to him a little bit more. He's gotten better as the season has gone along at doing that very Pat Mahomes-type thing of taking the check down when that's what's there, doing the smart things like that. It's taken CJ a while to get comfortable with that. But then he also started running the ball when there was easy yardage. Greg, I blame our generation for giving these young quarterbacks good advice, which is, listen, you want to be a pocket passer. You just want to be sure you don't rely on your legs all the time. But the game has changed, and I feel like guys like us have been telling these young quarterbacks for years, like, Yeah, don't let them type I asked you, you're a passing quarterback. Show me the awesome quarterbacks anymore who aren't also running quarterbacks.

Like, Pat Mahomes runs really intelligently and really effectively, and it helps the passing game. It helps the game management, all that. And nobody's acting like, well, he's not a pure pocket passer. I think CJ is starting to understand, and Joe Mixon has been trying to tell him this all year long, take those yards. You're athletic enough to do it and run for it when it's there. And I think it's starting to... At the very least in the second half of that game last week, it looked like that part of it really clicked for him.

Oh, yeah. When he made that scramble in the drive to end the first half and D'Amico starts yelling, that's what I'm effing talking about. You could almost tell it was from the I'm a defensive player point of view. That's what we need a little more of. It's funny. You just made a point. I heard it was me in a show with Dominique Foxworth, too, and they were getting on Jordan Love for the same thing. It's so funny. Now we've gotten to the point with these quarterbacks, and Herbert was similar in his game, where we're actually saying, No, you got to run more, bro. You guys are so athletic. It's hard. 20 years ago, you never would have thought that we would have said that. But I think there is something to that with CJ He is a good playmaker, and that play that he made at the end of the first half, maybe that is how you're going to be able to beat Kansas City, because if they have a weakness on defense, and this wasn't a great Chief's defensive year, it was very good most of the year had a dip, and then mostly got it back during that three-game streak, and they looked like the Chiefs that we expected.

And, hell, they got a lot of pass rush, even in that game without Chris Jones. That was on Christmas against the Steelers. So they are scary, and I think probably playing their best, but they weren't as good this year. They have some weaknesses in terms of their slot position. It's Shamari corner out there, really their second cornerbacks out there. I think if the Texans were a better running team, it could be a Joe Mixon game. But Joe Mixon is running so damn hard that as a defensive player, he must be someone like, he's got to be one of the toughest guys to tackle in the entire NFL.

Yeah, he's really... I mean, and there's times this year, too, as the run game has struggled to get going. There's times where it looks like Mixin has done a little bit of what CJ has done, which is, man, you know that you need a big play, so you're trying a little too hard for the big play, but because they can't trust the blocking in front of them. So that was where the really encouraging thing in the second half was, is that, all right, man, he had actual holes to run through. They were actually getting some easy yardage. They had a game ceiling drive. The offensive line for the Texans has just been shuffled around and improving in some ways as the season has gone along. But when they moved Titus Howard to left guard because all the left guards got injured, I think it's been good this time around. Titus hasn't been good as a guard in the past. This time it feels like he's really embraced it, and he has blemishes. You can tell he's playing out of position. But there's a certain factor. There's a certain part of just having a guy his size and with his athleticism that allows them to get some movement that they really weren't getting in the run game before.

So if they can lean into that a little bit, there's going to be some bad plays, but I think that there's just more of a chance that they can have more successful runs than they were able to have for most of the season.

Yeah. And They've had a lot of negative runs, and you mentioned the negative, the penalties and the sack. They just can't be taking those. That was the game where they kept throwing these bubble screens and getting negative threes and everything. That's right. They just You can't take those negative plays. You can't let George Karloftas and Mike Dana beat you. There was a little more of that. When I said they handled the blitz well in that game, they did. The communication was good and everything. But the Chief's four-man rush actually got home a decent amount. That's what I mean about winning with your strengths. I think CJ took 11 QB hits in that game, and Mahomes, who had gone through a stretch of getting battered and bruised, only took four. If it's that lopsided, the game will be lopsided. They'll cover the number. I'm not going full upset here, but I'm going, they're covering the number. That it's like a six-point game or something, and they make them sweat.

I think that's the part of it, too. I rarely get inserted by basically what Vegas and the computers are saying, but it did open up as a seven-point spread, and now it's moved up to nine. I feel like that's America saying that they're just, Okay, this is the playoff Chiefs, and it's going to be the same old Texans. So I'm assaulted by those points. I think that I cannot... It's 100% valid. The Chiefs are a different team in the playoffs than they are in the regular season, even in the years where they're really good offensively in the regular season. I think that the The fact of the matter, though, is that it's not like they've been blowing teams out this year. It's rare that they score more than 30 points in a game. I feel confident it's going to be a better game than maybe people are expecting.

Maybe a little vibes of the Deshaun Watson Texans game against the Chiefs where they had in the playout. That was a division all right with Bill O'Brien, and they get out to... I'll never forget, I was sitting next to our friend Chris Wesling for that game, and they get up what? 21-0 or 14-0?

24-0. It's 24-0. It's 24-0.

We're like, Is this really going to happen? It's funny. The Chiefs were so good on offense back then. Even then, you were like, Well, they got a lot of time. We'll see. But it's like, Is this really going I don't think it'll be like that, but I do think there's something we'll see what the rest. I don't know. That's a long time to not be playing football. I could see a Texans 13 to 6 lead midway through the second quarter, and the Chiefs fans are sweating it out, or maybe it's a halftime lead, something like that before the Chiefs pull away. That's my final prediction.

There's no cushion that will make any Texans fan feel comfortable. With the final score, that game ended up being 51 to 31, I think. Greg, the Chiefs ran out of gunpowder to fire the cannon in the end zone. That was the only bad thing that happened to the Chiefs that day once they started their comeback. Then the Chiefs went on to... That was the year they came back from double-digit deficit It's in every single game, I think, to win the Super Bowl. Their first.

That was their first Super Bowl run.

And we got it started.

That was their first Super Bowl run. We'll see if the Texans can end their bid on a three-peat. I hate to say it, but I don't think we're going to see you anymore this year.

I'm not going to get assaulted by it this time around. I was deeply assaulted. I thought about it all week.

I'm not sure you did. I'm forgiving you. The production value, by the way, over at Seth Payne Show, his YouTube channel is fantastic. I don't know how many people you have working with you, the editing, and the jokes are on point. I don't know if this has taken a lot of takes or what. Minor, Bosa. There was just a lot going on there. Bosa Minor.

I really appreciate it. Bosa Minor. I constantly... The little I do everything myself. I've just learned. That's my thing that I'm trying to learn to stay mentally sharp. Video editing, which I've learned is one of those things that it doesn't matter how much you improve, it's going to take the exact same amount of time because there's just always nine million things you can do to improve it. I think I'm up to maybe a 16-year-old editing on his phone level. I'm right there. I just want to get up to maybe like, freshman graphic design major, and then I'll start farming it out.

No, it's good. It's good stuff. We are asking all of our listeners, go subscribe, go check out Seth on YouTube. We will see you next time. We're not even going to take a break here. That's it for the AFC. Those games were fantastic. We're going to go to the early Sunday morning game, Eagles and Rams. Yes, I'm throwing it to myself with Bo Wolf. All right, back on NFL Daily. Didn't really go anywhere. With my friend, Bo Wolf from the PHLY, Eagles podcast. The Eagles are his business, and business is booming. It's a perfect Eagle season. You guys are dominant. You're heavy, He favorites in the divisional round, and no one in Philadelphia is happy. It's like that's exactly what you would want.

That's exactly right. It's just how you want it. And I do have to say at the top, I was confident that the arc of history would make it worthwhile for me to take João Fonseca in the 10th round of my major's draft with my brother this year. But I didn't think it was going to pay off this quickly. I'm happy to be here on Courts of Thunder.

Oh, my gosh. Yes. For the seven people listening that get that reference. I had a podcast about tennis, and I loved it with my friend Glenn Clark. Maybe it'll come back someday. And yes, Bowulf, an eye for talent, picked maybe the next big thing in tennis. I'm not going to say he's the next Alcaraz, but I think he's going to be the next something we're going to be watching for a long time, and he's making some big noise at the Australian Open. But yes, let's get to the eagles.

The vibes in Philly are exactly as you would expect. They were Saquon Barkley not taking a knee or sliding down at the end of that game away from winning by three touch downs. And everybody's furious because the passing game just cannot seem to get unstuck.

Wait, is it really Furious?

It's not Furious is overstating it, but it is hesitancy. There is reticence because everybody thinks that if this team is going to get to where they want to go, the passing game is going to have to improve.

Well, they've been up and down all season. At times, they They've actually been very efficient and played their part very well. At other times, Jalen Hertz's numbers haven't passed the eye test when he holds on to the ball a lot. This is something you guys talk about on your podcast. I think it's right You said you see it at training camp. When he holds the ball for a while, good things often don't happen. The positive here is you look back at that first Rams game and you think about the match They're one of the few teams that made the Rams' pass rush look mortal because they have the tackles to do it. Like, Jared versus is totally erased that game by, I think it was Mylata most of the time. And The matchups on the outside, I know that should have been true last week, too, but AJ Brown and Devante Smith against Akela Witherspoon and Darius Williams, you would think that would really work. Why hasn't the passing game working? Now I'm caught in your Webb, we're going negative at the beginning.

It's a good question. To first talk about that first matchup, that was the Eagles best offensive performance of the season by all the advanced metrics. They were awesome in that game. I mean, Saquon Barkley had 300 yards from scrimage. It was an insane rushing performance. But A. J. Brown also had over 100 yards, and they didn't have Devante Smith in that game. You do think match-up-wise that it should favor the Eagles's offense. A. J. Brown has owned Akela Witherspoon over the course of their career. They've played several games against each other. But A. J. Brown had one catch last week, and A. J. Brown and Devante Smith are both a little bit banged up. They missed some practice time last week. The problem with the offense is that so often, The Eagles win on Sunday, then you watch the Monday night game, and the things that the Rams and Vikings are doing on offense to just creatively get guys open, they're absent from the Eagles offense. So often, it is the game route concepts that they run all season long. It's hard to disentangle what is Jalen, what is the offensive scheme. But in week 18, when they played with Taylor McKee, you saw the under-center play action game.

You saw these things that have been absent from the passing offense. It's a little bit of both. Obviously, everybody shares in that. One of the things that's confounding to me is when this team is so run heavy and they only have 20 to 25 dropbacks a game in the ideal script that they have, the less volume you have of passing plays should mean that you can be less predictable. Why are we running the same route concepts? And one thing that has really been absent from this passing game, shockingly so, because one of the things that Jalen Hertz does best is throw the ball deep. They do not throw the ball deep right now. Last week, the only ball they threw downfield was the fake push-push that was incomplete to A. J. Brown. That, to me, is like You just think about it philosophically. If you know that this team faces loaded boxes more than anybody else in the league, and you're pounding Saquon Barkley into the line of scrimmage, why can't we just pop a couple of balls deep? It seems so silly.

Well, this is That's funny. We really are just talking about what they're struggling at, and yet it's all true. I don't need to disentangle it that much more. Maybe you guys need to be more sensitive because you're local, and Jalen Hertz is a serious man and a good football player and has had a lot of success. It always looks like the Jalen Hertz often. So maybe that's it. Because you bring in Kelen Moore, and they have the same passing DVOA as a year ago, or right around the same. It's close to the middle of the league, the strengths and weaknesses, and it looks similar. And then, yeah, you bring in the backup, and suddenly it looks like the Kelen more often. So Hertz has his strengths. He has his weaknesses. I think if you lean into those strengths in the right matchups, you can go win a Super Bowl, especially with this defense. I mean, this defense is better than it's ever been. But I think you're right. In this game against this secondary, you You got to push the ball a little bit more down the field. They are a different offense when they have Godert, Devante Smith, and AJ Brown on the field together.

Which they've only had for four games this season, including.

Right. And they have it. I'm willing to accept the idea that they didn't need it, the offense, that much last week. Little game manager. And it was Hertz coming off of a long layoff. That was almost there, like get into the playoffs type of game. You guys threw out that idea, and maybe you'll see a better version of the offense this week.

I think that's reasonable, at least to hope for, with some degree of confidence. And listen, the last full game that Jalen Hertz played before he got injured in the Commander's game, before this playoff game, was against the Steelers when he had his best passing performance of the season. This was coming on the heels of A. J. Brown saying, what's wrong? And he said, the passing game. And they came out the next week and were bombs away, and they had a great first half throwing the ball. And so oftentimes Sometimes we talk about the Egos organization as being rabbit-eared, and whatever the big conversation of the week is, they tend to address it with their game script early on. And so I actually do think we're going to see some early shots downfield just because that's what people have been talking about. And again, I know that it's ridiculous that we're complaining about a team that is a six and a half point favorite away from going to the NFC Championship game, but the stakes are the stakes.

Well, everything else is so great on this team, and that is why it is ridiculous that there is a path to them being the 12th best offense, passing the ball in the league and winning a Super Bowl. If you're the best running team and you're the best defense, that's a winning combination. Your special teams don't blow it.

And there's the joke of because Jeffrey Loury, he wants a pass-heavy offense. That is the joke, right? At the Super Bowl parade, Jeffrey is like, Thanks, nick, for winning the Super Bowl. But that's not how I wanted to do it. We'll see you next year. I'm going to hire a new coach.

It It is hilarious to look at the all-time winning percentage records of coaches in history. There's nick Seriani right near the top. Win-loss is a coaching record, is a coaching stat, and his win-loss record is incredible. Now, this is his second chance to make a run. He obviously had the one and dones a couple of times in the playouts, but the four playoff appearances. I know we're not talking too much about the Rams here. I think if the Rams defense, before we flip the other side, is going to win this game. Their linebackers have to hold up in the running game. I think they looked a little small last time around. That was an eye-opening game. Our co-host, Jordan Rodriegue of the Athletic, talked about this was a front that was maybe feeling themselves a little bit, and that was a humbling game for them. It was the bottom of a decline that they had in terms of their young pass rushers, and especially holding up against the run. And they have bounced back pretty well since then. Now, that might just be a matchup thing where they got beat by a better team because Saquon, in that game, of course, he has some crazy stats, but only a handful of times in the next-gen stats era has a player had over 75 yards before contact in a game and 100 yards after contact in a game.

So all the The Eagles numbers in terms of before contact are best in the league. And this is a Ram's front that you can push back. And then Saquon was also too physical a lot of times for this Ram's defense. To me, they're just going to have to show up, and it's trite, but they're going to have to be more physical, like the Eagles defense was last week. They're going to have to come out hitting and somehow make up that poundage gap that we see in a lot of these games this week. Bills are way lighter than the Ravens, and I think the Rams are way lighter than the the Eagles.

I think the Eagles will lean into that physicality on both sides of the ball. They want to be the team that is punching the other team in the mouth. It's not a nice thing to say, but they knocked out three packers from the game last week, two wide receivers, and Elton Jenkins which changed the game because the packers could not hold up in pass pro. I think the Eagles would, in their minds, welcome that fight.

I think the Rams defense has gotten better and better, versus winning with power doesn't necessarily match up as well with-There was the one play from that game where he ran over Jordan Mylata.

It was like a highlight play, but other than that, he was held quiet.

I think that was literally his only pressure. It was his quietest game of the season. But you do it. It's a four-man front. You have Kobe Turner, you have Braden Fisk. It's a young group. You have Byron Young, who's been sneaky awesome all year. I just think their only chance of winning this game or creating a lot of pressure and forcing Jalen Hertz to hold the ball, get confused. They got a little more creative last week with some of their disguise pressures, late blitzes. They really haven't been much of a creative defense throughout the season, but I think they saw what the lines did to Darnal and copied it, and maybe can work against Hertz, too, who tends to hold the ball a little bit.

And take sacks. And to the conversation from before, what is a little bit disappointing of the Jelen Hertz experience is that for a guy who is as athletic and mobile as he is, it is true that the longer the players go on, he has a lower success rate, which is a little bit surprising. He does not make a lot happen unless it's a scramble the longer he holds onto the ball. So he takes a lot of sacks. And I do think that the Rams are going to be doing a lot of rotation post-snap to try to muddy the picture because there was a lot of concern last week, like how rusty is Jelen Hertz going to be? And I think that some of that plays out a little bit more in what he's seeing than necessarily the way that he's playing as a thrower. Although there was some inaccuracy last week, which was a little bit atypical.

Yeah. No, he usually is on point, I would say, with the ball. I will point out, though. I listened to your recap pod, I believe it It was before you guys knew the opponents. You were talking about all the different opponents that you could face. I think there were three possibilities at the time. You didn't know if it could be the Commander's, Ram's, or White's.

The overwhelming reaction was people wanted the Rams.

Yes. Maybe it's just because of the experience the first time around. So Sean McVay, I don't know if you're a big NFL Daily guy. There's some other people within the Rams that are NFL Daily listeners. There's your poster to put up. Phly, they all wanted the Ram.

53% of respondents, yeah.

That's better than Dan Campbell just telling Kevin O'Kunal, We'll see you in two weeks. That was the most ridiculous bulletin board material I mean, O'Neill didn't even say it. O'neill was probably thinking, Oh, yeah, I'm not getting through another game with Sam Darnold. This guy's turned into a pumpkin. So you got your wish, you got your Rams, and yet this is a rare offense that the Rams are running When it's clicking, they have the better quarterback in this game when it's clicking. He's been a little up and down, but on balance, he's been better. And certainly, at his best, I think he's better than Jalen Hertz. And it's a passing attack that that maybe could give this Eagles defense some problems.

Yes. And so the big concern for the Eagles this week is the loss of N'Kobi Dean, who suffered a torn patellar tendon in that wild card round game. And he's probably going to be replaced by Oren Birks, who replaced him in that game. Vic Fangio said this week that Jeremiah Trader Jr, the fifth-round rookie, might rotate in there as well. But that's going to be the weak spot that I think everybody in Philadelphia is worried that Sean McVay is going to pick on. And Zach Bond, who has had this unbelievable all-pro season. Vic Fangio likes to rotate Zach Bond down to the line of scrimage and change the math of the fronts. And if you do that, then all of a sudden, Oren Birks or Jeremiah Trader Jr is left alone in the middle of the field. And that's not going to be an ideal matchup in terms of having to cover anybody with the misdirection of the Rams' offense. And so I think that is the big concern. And in that first matchup, there's so much said about the history between Vic Vangio and Sean McVay, and how it He changed the landscape of the NFL for a few years.

I know Jordan has covered that better than anybody.

Yes, back in the... The Patriots won the Super Bowl when the bears put that five in front. And yes, Zach Bon, that's why I think Man, if I had a vote, he really might have been valuable. He really might have been the most valuable because he was the guy who unlocked their ability to flip between defenses like that 2018 bears team was able to do.

Yes. And he's also been really good in the middle of the field. You saw his interception of Jordan Love last week, and he talked about how he had to earn the Vic Fanjo trust to be able to freelance a little bit like that. So I'm curious to see what Fanjo does in the middle of the field. But even though Fanjo has mostly gotten the better of Sean McVay, that first matchup, it looked like a blowout, but there were three three and outs in the middle of that game. But other than that, like the opening script, the Rams went down the field, no third downs, went right down the field into the Eagles's red zone, and then Kyron Williams fumbled the ball away. Next possession went right down the field, scored a countdown without even needing a third down, and they moved the ball in the second half as well. And so this was not quite as demonstrative a blowout on that side of the ball as it might have looked in the stats.

No, the success rates of the two offenses were very even And there is something about Stafford that is scary. He just goes into this FU mode, and he is a streaky quarterback, and he can beat good coverage. Now, they're a team that does more motion than just about any team in the league. The numbers say that the Eagles are the best at handling motion.

They're the best at it at all. They don't chase it. They play their keys.

Right. So they're very disciplined They're well-coached. How has been covering Vic Fangio? I feel like he's made way less headlines this year. He's a dream. Yeah, why?

Because he's brutally honest. He does not worry about the obvious obfuscation of like, Oh, well, I don't know. We had to decide. We haven't made that choice yet. He will tell you exactly the truth. I mean, Bryce Huff, the guy who they signed for $17 billion, he played one snap last week. He was asked about that. He was like, Well, we were good with our It was a three-man rotation. We didn't need him. He's fine.

Yeah, they should be good. They got Nolan Smith, who's playing at a Pro Bowl level now.

I cannot remember ever covering someone who I feel like has improved in season as much as Dylan Smith has this year.

Yeah. So you have him, you have Josh Schwet, who's been very effective. I do think that that Eagles game with the Rams is interesting to look back on because it really changed the Ram season. They were just getting their offensive line back, they thought, for the first time and healthy. They played so poorly in that game that they actually went back to the undrafted rookie, Bo Limmer at center every game since and benched... Now I'm blanking on his name, not Ragnout. Benched their big free agent pickup from the Lions, and they've gone with the same offensive-Jona Johnson? Jona Jackson, right. He played center in that game. They've had him on the bench. He's making $20 million a year, very similar to Bryce Huff. He's not playing. They're going with the undrafted rookie at center. You get Avula over at Yard, and they've played quite well in terms of protecting Stafford and especially running the ball since then. They've had one of the highest success rates in the league with Kyron Williams, and I still do think that's ultimately the way to get at this Eagles defense is just be patient and get four to five yard runs and be diverse doing it.

I think actually the Rams, about as much as any team in the NFL, are set up to do that, to try to go on some twelve play drives where Stafford doesn't make mistakes, and it's very run and play-action-based. And so I think that could be a concern. I'm almost shortening the game as an underdog.

Yeah, I think the fewer possessions in this game, the better for the Rams, no doubt about it. I think the Eagles run defense. They feel very good about their run defense. If it is the thing where it's three yards of pop and they're just converting third and shorts, they'll have to do that. But I don't worry about the Eagles getting run over, really, in the running game. Josh Jacobs had that great run last week. To be fair, there were a few more missed tackles last week from the Eagles than we have been used to seeing the second half of the season. But up front, I think they feel very confident about winning.

Well, they're good at everything. There's no particular weakness. They're deep in the secondary. They're healthy right now, right? Everyone's practicing in the secondary?

Yeah, Slate was a little bit nicked up in that game, but he's not going to miss this game.

Right. So the matchups are fascinating, what you do to try to take out Puukunakuwa, and it's tough because he's in motion because there is no more offense in the league that's more focused on one player than the Rams are, which is why I think Tyler Higby showing up last week, and they say he's going to play this week after he was spitting up blood and went to the hospital. It's like, Oh, yeah, he's playing this week. He looks fine. Good to go. It's fine. Football is insane. That he is important for them because Cooper Cup is not really a two anymore. He's just a rotational receiver. I'm not going to say he's Jehan Dotson, but this is probably his last game as a Ram if they don't win it.

Interesting. You talk about how the Ram season was changed. Eagles defense was changed after the buy when Cooper Dajine took over as their nickel corner, and they've been so much better. What he's allowed them to do is stay in nickel personnel and still defend the run really, really well because of his willingness to be physical.

Where are you leaning for this? You're not allowed to pick against the Eagles in this game, but do you have them covering the spread? I was a little surprised that they were so heavily favored in this game.

Yeah, I mean, I'm leaning towards the Eagles covering the spread, but the fact that I'm leading... I mean, it's a typical thing. I'm leaning that way, so now I'm worried that it's going to go the other way. But I think the passing game is going to bounce back a little bit. I think the Rams will be able to move the ball better than the packers did last week, but I'm expecting just a frothing Eagles crowd. It might snow now for this game. It's going to be 20 degrees. And so I'm going to just tilt it towards the Eagles.

Yeah. And the Rams history of going East.

But I can also see the Jordan postgame story about how Sean McVeg has finally slain the Vic Fangio giant. And This is how many years coming?

Look, it would make the women in my house happy. They're Rams fans. And I thought this going into the game, I picked the Rams, and I thought they might win And I think I had them by six or something like that against the Viking. I just thought that was going to be their moment, that that was going to be their emotional. It's been a lot out here. They were personally affected. It's indoors against this Vikings team who I personally think they wanted to play, that they literally were looking at the matchups and thinking, oh, I hope we get the Vikings, and felt good about. And now it's a short week, and it's not... I know it's the playoffs, but it is a short week. You're on the road. It's cold. It's a lot to ask. You put a lot into that, and you look at these two teams, they're not even. Over the course of the season, they're not even. That's what the numbers are telling you. They're telling you that the Eagles are one of the very best teams in the league, and that the Rams' offense has come and gone, on, and that the defense has been opportunistic, considering what they have, but they're a little uneven.

They're very front loaded, and the back seven can be taken advantage of. But who knows? Maybe this Eagle's passing in to go back to what we talked about. They're not the team to take advantage, and they can keep it close. I'm leaning on the Eagles's covering, actually. Yeah.

Maybe Jelen Hertz hasn't turned the ball over, and maybe he turns the ball over. I think the eagles need to lean into being the bad guy, being in the playoffs, because I mean, everybody, every neutral person is going to be rooting for the Rams. I would be, given everything that they have gone through. If the Eagles then get to the NFC Championship game, I mean, everybody is going to be rooting for the Lions.

Even more so than the Rams, as much as I'm sure everyone has sympathy for us.

And if they get to the Super Bowl against the Bills of the Ravens if it's one of those teams. In 2017, the Eagles were the plucky underdogs. Everybody's rooting for them against your Patriots. Everybody thinks like nick Siriani, jawing on the sidelines is like a hateable thing. They've got C. J. G. G. Johnson Johnson and Dylan Carter jawing people. I think they need to lean into being the big bad, some real heel stuff.

I've loved the Chauncey Garner Johnson. I don't know why to say revival, but he wasn't that good this year for a lot of the season. And suddenly at the end of the season, he's in the middle of everything. He's making plays, he's jawing, he's getting thrown out of games. This is perfect. I want this play off run. You're absolutely like, Right, lean into it. The only way that doesn't work is if there's a Chief's rematch in the Super Bowl, which is the matchup that no one really wants. A, we've seen it. B, it includes the Chiefs. And then C, it's like, yeah, the Eagles are just the team compared to the others. You're absolutely right. That just like, it's like, Okay, that's fine.

Yeah, there's no more national juice, I think, given the fun stories of all the other real contenders.

Their juice, it's just like, why do the Eagles fans got to be so hateable? I love them. I love you guys. But just enjoy your life. Enjoy your team. You're the envy of many other teams. We should be getting Alec Haleby, your assistant GM, a job out there. And the only interview I can get is with the Jets, him and 15 other people.

And they're interviewing 17 guys.

I mean, look at this roster. They're like a dynasty with Siriani as their coach. You know how good you have to make that?

I was actually looking something up on that point. The Eagles are the only team... So if you start in 2020 when they flamed out and Doug Pearson gets fired, they won four games. So 2020 to 2024, total wins, and then also draft pick value based on the trade charts that they've used over that time, given all the moves that they've made, They're the only team that's in the top 10 of both of those things based on all the things that they have done. There was the Carson Wents trade, the Saints trade, and that doesn't even factor in the A. J. Brown acquisition. They really have done something unique League over the past four years with being able to win and have all that draft equity with their roster.

They're the best roster in the league. They really are. The problem is it's a quarterback league, and of the eight quarterbacks remaining, the only one I'd put Hertz over right now is C. J. Stroud, and that's just how they're playing right now. Even that's long term, I'm definitely taking Stroud. If you told me this week, he plays that. His ceiling is probably higher even this weekend, than maybe Hertz and so that's just a small little thing to overcome, but they are a juggernaut. I want to see him in the NFC Championship game ultimately, because I think that will be an awesome game as long as it's not Eagles's Commanders, but I want to see that Lion's.

I have felt all year long like it was headed towards that game. I'm going to feel robbed if we don't get to actually see Eagles.

Lion's, Eagles. Yes.

I think we will. I've been waiting for that game all year. I want to see it.

It'll be good for your business. It's going to be good for your co-host, Zack Bermans.

I might kidnap Zack and we'll do a road trip to Detroit. I'm threatening him with that possibility.

That would be amazing. Check out Bow Wolf. You can see him on all the socials. He's on Blue Sky, he's on Twitter. But most importantly, go check out the PHY eagles podcast. I like Fran Duffy on that show. You got Vinnie Curry, who adds a lot of spice to it, a lot of voices. We will see you. And yeah, good luck because I know it's good for business. Now you have to root for the home team.

I would never do that, but it would be good for business.

We will be back after the break. We're going to wrap up our previews talking a little lions and commanders right after this. Back on NFL Daily, wrapping up this supersize divisional round weekend preview with the man from SB Nation, J. P. Acosta with to talk a little Commanders, Lion, JP, one of the sharpest football minds out there. He's on Blue Sky, which I appreciate posting heavily like myself, but he's on Twitter, too. You can check out his established the fun column. Every Wednesday, I believe it comes out, and it's awesome. Jp is a really smart young mind, but not as young as you were the first time you came on, JP. What's up?

Actually, I feel good that I'm not the youngest this time. I'm not the youngest person this time. I have grown, but I have also, like you said, writing an establishment fund every week. I'm really excited for this divisional round, playoff, divisional round of playoffs. I did this last week where I was like, I don't know what I want to talk about, so I'm just going to talk about everything. So this week I was like, I don't know what I want to talk about, so I'm just going to talk about everything.

Let's do it. We're going to talk about everything. I'm narrowing you down related to this game. And yes, the other guests we had on JP. We're team-specific guests. But I know you can talk ball about anything, so that's a compliment to you. You're not directly connected with this Commander's team or this Lion's team. And yet there's so many fascinating ways to look at it. I want to start. Let's talk about Jaden and the Washington offense first. When you look at this matchup, you think about what the Lion's defense likes to do. It's so man coverage-heavy. They do what they do. They They blitz like crazy. They blitz even more and more effectively over the last half of the season. You wouldn't figure it's going to change up too much because they don't change up what they do against anyone. And yet, Jaden Daniels, very good against the blitz, a good decision maker in general. How do you think that chess match with the pressure is going to play out?

I think this matchup is so interesting because of how largely the commander's offense is Jaden Daniels-centric. It operates on Jaden Daniels' scrambles. You're able to move the ball because Jaden can run it and his growth as a passer. I think for the lions, I'm not sure if I would blitz him as much because you're leaving those lanes open to scramble, but I talked about it for established This is going to be a big game for Jack Campbell and Alex Anzaloni, who are the two perfect guys that you want for this situation. I think they play off each other really well. I think Anzaloni will take more of the Zack Ertz matchups in past coverage. And I think Jack Campbell will I have the unfortunate duty of trying to spy Jay and Daniels. But this game is going to be so interesting because there are so many different variables at play for this Lion's defense, because the Commander's offense is built to take advantage of teams like these that are a little undermanned at corner. You're a little undermanned up front, so you got to blitz a lot, and you just worry about leaving the door open for the Jay and Daniels, Terry McLaurin go ball.

Right. You mentioned it's just built around one guy in such a unique way. I think Cliff King is has had his best year as an NFL coach coordinating this offense. Just at the moment, you thought it was getting stale. They added some new wrinkles late in the year, and he's looked really good. If you get into a situation where it's a single high safety. He's throwing to McLaurin. You said it's so based around one guy. I wrote a very similar note that I just can't remember a good offense being so much about two guys, that it really is McClore And last week, we saw the deep crossers. He can do anything, but that hasn't been as big a part of their offense. And you start the game with the big shot down the field. It really does come down to that. And even on the RPO, slant game, you just could see them feeding McLaurin like that. What do you think the matchup there is to try to slow down Scary Terry? Because it's been tough.

I think you tell Amik Robertson that Terry McLaren wears team like Justin Jefferson, and you just let them go. I think this team, they are so built in who they are and what they are. It's admirable. But I also think they have guys who can thrive in these situations. They have a guy like Amik Robertson, who they signed off the street and immediately became their CB1 as Carlton Davis went down. I think, like I said, having Jack Campbell and Alex Angeloni back will help shore up some of the middle of the field issues. I don't think some of that access over the the field be the same like the commanders had against the Bucaneers. But I think for the Lions to win this game, something that I noticed with Jane Daniels is he's still a little bit of boom or bust when it comes to pressure. He has a great shutdown rate, really explosive, but he also has a high sac rate and also a higher interception rate. But that's the variance game you play when you have a guy who can throw the deep ball and it can scramble as well as Daniel. So something that I've always wondered with the lions against these types of quarterbacks is, do you just lean into the variance game and say, Hey, if you want to beat us running around and throwing the ball like insane, we'll throw our hands up, we'll tip our cap and say that that's fine, but we're not going to change our game in the most important time of the season.

That's a really interesting point. And yeah, his scrambles, according to NextGen, by far led the NFL. He had more than 600 yards in scrambles. So it actually wasn't a ton on design runs in terms of where he got his production. You're right, takes a lot of sacks. And yet, I do think he's a good game manager. He seems to have that innate sense that very rare do you see this out of a rookie quarterback. Almost never. Joe Burrow maybe had that, although he was injured for part of his rookie year. He seems very calculated in when to go for things, when not to go for things. And I am curious how patient he'll be in the pocket in this game because he left He leaves early a couple of times against Tampa. And I think the matchup is similar that I think he'll have time because most quarterbacks do have time against Detroit. So it's when does he want to pull it and go? When does he want to hang in the pocket, like he had with the shutdown throw where he had all the time in the pocket. That'll be really important. Even though he's a rookie, I got a lot of faith in him to figure it out, even if he makes a bad decision or two.

He usually calibrates it so well. It's very veteran-like.

It's very, like you said, calculated. Even with the scrambles, it never feels frantic. It feels like, Okay, there's nothing there. I'm going to go get enough that I need for the first down, and I'll step out of bounds. Or it's, Okay, there's a free runner. I'm just going to run right around him, and then I'll get the first down. It never feels like he's doing any of this without the intention of, Okay, nothing's there. I got to go, rather than a lot of young quarterbacks tense up and panic at the side of pressure. He gets the pressure It's like, Okay, I know where I'm going with this. I know that this offense has it built in, that I can just go if I feel the pressure and I can get that first down.

It's fine. You mentioned Campbell before. I don't know if we've talked much about Jack Campbell on this show. The lions get a lot of pop for surprising people with that Jamir Gibbs pick, and the Campbell pick got criticized. Where are you at with some Jack Campbell right now? Because it's funny you say that he would be the spy, and he is He's a perfect person to do that. It's tough for any linebacker to have that athleticism, but that is good for his role. Where do you think he is in his development as a second-year linebacker?

I think the best thing for Jack Campbell was losing Anzaloni to that broken arm earlier in the season because he stepped into the mic roll and took on a little bit more responsibility. I think he's a hammer in the run game. He does so much when it comes to both inside and outside the tackles, and he's so much quicker to the ball this season. And he's a good blitzer. I mean, early in his career, they had him rushing off the edge because they had to at that stage in his career. But now that he's playing off ball, you can use him in a lot of different ways. And he and Anzaloni play off each other really well. Whereas Anzaloni is a little bit more coverage, a little better in coverage, you can have Jack Campbell be the hammer on all of these stunts and all the games that Aaron Glenn is going to want to play. Or if you want to just sit back and let him spy or play or play a little bit of an aggressive spy against Daniels, he can do that as well.

Yeah, it's interesting. They missed Anzaloni so much, and they also missed Derek Barnes, who was a really nice presence for them at linebacker. But Campbell has gotten better and better. That's why JP is the best. I mean, I don't know. He's got 32 teams to cover. I don't know for sure if he's got a great Jack Campbell answer, but he comes prepared. He comes ready. I ultimately think this is a good matchup for the lines defense relatively because I do... I mean, I guess this is true for any defense, but I do think a diverse, deep receiver crew with a real deal quarterback that can spread it around is probably the offense that's going to give him the most amount of problems. And then when you flip it to the other side, it does feel like Washington's going to have to try to keep up in a shootout. Now, they won a high scoring game against Philadelphia. It took them a while to get going. That's happened a few times. They won a shootout against Cincinnati. It is a route that they could be competitive and win a game with. But I do think that that's going to have to be the route because flipping to the other side, I know I've dismissed this commander's defense at times this year, and they've played hard, and they're pretty sound, I think.

But just talent-wise and answers and where they are at in Dan Quinn's first year versus Dan Campbell's fourth, that other side of the ball, I could be wrong, feels like the biggest mismatch of divisional round weekend is Lyon's offense versus Commander's defense.

Yeah, especially if David Montgomery is healthy. They said he was a full participant in walkthrough. He's playing. If he plays, you just worry about them having too many answers for everything. Something that Washington is not that great in past coverage, but what they do is they hit people really hard up front, and they'll always be attacking, and they try and force the issue on you and try and speed you up. That way, they take some of the pressure off of their coverage that isn't that good this year. Dante Fowler Jr. Has been really good in this defense. Of course, you have John Allen, Daron Payne, and then you just get all these And as Frankie Louvou will also rush off the edge, and they just try and hammer you, play in, play out. But I worry about that from a Washington perspective, because Detroit's offense can just take those little yards that you'll give them by being so aggressive up front, and they'll turn it into explosives. I think until Tampa completely fell apart in their last drive of the game, they had some success rushing along the edges of the defense. They were getting a lot of outside zone, a lot of toss plays with Bucky Irving.

And now you face Jamir Gibbs, who is really good at that, and they have so many different ways of getting into it. I worry a little bit about this Washington defense wearing down up front. And if they're wearing down up front, they get pressure. And if you can't get pressure, that coverage is going to fall apart.

Yeah, it's a good point about them hitting hard, because I do think this is a game where on both sides of the ball, they're going to force the secondary to make tackles on short throws. Washington's offense will do that, too. And that's going to be important, just tackling. But you get to the running game, and this is where it's hard to imagine. The Lions have the most explosive runs under center by so much. It's preposterous. They have 56 explosive runs from Under Center this year. The next closest team is 32. And this is where our friends at NextGen, that helps me out because it passes the eye test. Washington gives up the highest success rate to runs under center, one of the highest explosive run rates, one of the highest yards before they make contact. And it's been a theme on this show. You're following in the footsteps of greats here, JP, Brian Baldinger, Seth Payne, Bo Wolf from PHLY in his podcast. It keeps being a pattern. In all these games, one of the teams, maybe except Texan's Chiefs, are just way bigger than the other. And man, it just feels like the Lions are going to be...

They're well coached, but they also can just lean on this Washington team in a way that I just have a hard time seeing them hold up for four quarters. Maybe I'll be wrong, but that's what I see.

Yeah, I just worry about Washington's defensive line having to constantly constantly get hit in this game with the run game. The best way you can slow down a pass rush is if you hit them really hard in the run game, force them to think about the run, and then you can get the play action, which is basically what the Lion's offense wants to do. They want you to think about having to defend the run. And as you're trying to defend the run, boom, you hit the over route to Laporta. Then you get Ammon Rossant-Brown involved, and you're opening up the entire part of that offense. So I just worry about for the Washington defense, them being so focused on playing the pass on the way to the run that the run is going to come first, and they're just going to give up explosives. If the Lion is just going to lean on you and Goff doesn't have to make all these complex reads or decisions, and you can't blitz them out of it, you worry about this game becoming a Detroit Lion speed run game.

Right. Because it's very similar. The Bucks have a really good offensive line. Baker had good pockets in that game. So many plays in that game, no one even got close to Baker. And if you give Goff that time, he's an even better version of a pocket quarterback. And Seth, we were talking about the evolution of quarterbacks and some of these athletic quarterbacks like Jordan Love and Justin Herberts who don't run enough. And he was asking, who left in the game doesn't run? That's great. And there's one answer. It's Jared Goff. And he's playing I think the best football of his career, and I think he'll be able to pick out some of these mismatches, whether it's Wagner or Chin or Marshawn Latamor, who came back last week. He's had the ham string injury. They basically bench Benjamin St. Juice. Latamor had a rough game. I know it was against Mike Evans, but the lines got great, great receivers, too. I include Jamison Williams in that group. If he's a little cooked in this game, there's just too many mismatches for the lines to go after.

Yeah, there's too many options here. I worry so much for Washington about the Jamison Williams of it all because Jamison Williams is a really weird receiver where some plays, you might not know what he's going to do, but the other play is going to be an 80-yard breakdown. And you just worry about the explosive aspect of this offense with Jamison Williams on the field. And that opens up so many more problems to where you're so worried about the run game, so you think you have to come up to defend going to run. And James Williams goes flying past your corner in safety for a countdown. And now you're like, Oh, no, we have to defend the explosive pass. And that opens up Amon Ra and Sam Laporta over the middle of the field. They just have so many answers and so many layers to this offense that, again, if Washington cannot get any negative plays, it's a very Dan Quinn defense. They are built on sacks and turnovers and tackles for loss. If they If I can't get them behind the sticks or getting negative plays, I worry about this flow of the game going really bad for Washington very quickly.

Yeah, and they could. We just need to see more. Jonathan Allen hasn't looked like his peak self since coming back. Daron Payne is a talented player. Newton in the middle. They have players, and if you're going to try to find a weakness in the lines, offensive line, it would be on the interior. It's absolutely possible. Also, you've always got the X-Factor of the Frankie Louver cheap shot. I know you watch the film. It's like every week, man. There's something, man. He had one against Mike Evans last week. He has one every week, which it just gets the people going. Maybe it gets someone kicked out of the game for a fight. I don't know if that's a strategy, but I feel like something weird has to happen like that for this Washington defense to hang in this game.

They need the signature Frankie Louver, like ECW Pro wrestling chair shot. They need Frankie Louvou to be the peak WCW wrestler that brings him the Kendo stick. They need to be Sandman or something. He's got to bring chaos to this game, and that's something that Frankie Louvou does really well. He brings chaos to this defense. For them, like I said, to create those negatives and get an offense that's so regimened off balance, you have to have the chaos.

I like to take a step back when I'm looking at these matchups, and it doesn't mean you're going to get it right, obviously. But this This is year four of the Campbell era. He said in that locker room last year, when they lost that game, there's no guarantee we're going to get back. They've come back this season and handled being the favorites so well. And that's what the commanders want to be. And they've got a really inspiring coach who's getting more out of them than you would expect. But they're in year one. They're way ahead of where the Campbell lines were in year one. And I look at these two teams at the level where they're at. And this is the game that I'm going to do my my picks against the spread with Cynthia. We post that show on Friday mornings, but this is the game I feel most confident in. And I don't care how many points it is. I do think the lines We'll get there. The commanders could still score 29 or something like that, but it could be 40 to 29 or something like that. That's ultimately how I see it.

I don't need to make you make a pick, but if you want to, let's go for it, JP.

Yeah, I feel like this is going to be a Ryan's win. I feel like this offense just has too many problems and has shown, like I said, for the Washington defense to win, they have to try and get Jared Goff off schedule. But Jared Off has actually... I feel like Jared Goff has... I've gained a lot more respect for Jared Goff this season in terms of how he operates, how he works in that offense, and how much he's grown since he first really started with the McVay offense in at the peak of their powers. I feel like this is going to be the perfect game to show that Jared Goff is really good, but also that this Lions team has been here before, even though they don't have all their stars. They have been in this situation. They get a home game in front of their crowd, and they can just lean on them. I think it's a lion's word.

Yeah. Sorry to cut you off there. People forget 30-year-olds in the NFL. They can improve. They can keep getting better. I know it has a a Patriots fan. Tom braided really was better at 34 than he was at 28. People remember the '07 season and stuff. But overall, in terms of his quarterback, he got a lot better at 34, 36, 38. I mean, even though... And Jared Goff wins in a similar way, and I'm totally with you. I think he has significantly improved, even from last year, where he was already improved. So we're both on the lions. Let's play the music, Eric. This was a banger. It was a long show here. Jp, appreciate you. Thank you. It's not going to be as long until you come on again. You killed it.

As always, thanks for having me, man.

Jp Acosta, check him out at SB Nation. We will be back, like I said, on Friday with Cynthia Freeland and the Picks. And yeah, when we're counting out the commanders, once again, you know football is back. We'll see you Friday.