Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

Welcome in. The fantasy footballers, Mike, the fantasy hitman, Jason Mahr. I'm Andy Holloway. Welcome in for Thursday, February 13th. Any big Valentine's Day plans, gentlemen? Do you do the Valentine's Day extravaganza?

Yeah, I do have big Valentine's Day plans. I'm flying to Kentucky.

Oh, that's right.

That's right.

Is that a common Valentine's Day trip?

This is the first time in my life I will be in Kentucky. Probably the last time in my life.

What are some facts you know about Kentucky?

Well, bourbon capital of the world, so I'm going to do some tours.

You're going to do some bourbon tours? Yeah.

Whisky. See at the Distilleries on Valentine.

And this is just you by yourself?

No, me and the missus. Okay. Going to go taste some whiskey.

Any other Kentucky facts you've got for us?

Me and derbies. There's a derby. They've got fried chicken. That's about it.

Tapped out. Mike, anything I know-About Kentucky?

I did find out.

No, not about Kentucky.

Speaking of Kentucky, and this will sound really dumb to those of you in the Midwest, West or the East Coast or that are educated. But I found out that Kentucky is significantly further east than I thought.

That happens to us a little bit.

Where did you think it was?

I thought it was Kansas, I think.

I'm Yeah, Kansas, Kentucky.

There's no way a lot of us here don't get that wrong.

Oh, if you're a West coaster like us, I'm informing you right now that Kentucky is not actually dead center.

The puzzle pieces could go wherever. Right.

The center, 80% Just put them in a hopper. It doesn't matter.

Just to put you on the spot here, West Virginia. Do you know where that is?

I do. West Virginia is basically south of Virginia, near the East Coast.

Just making sure you knew it was over. Yeah.

Well, he He just found out Georgia had- That's by Oregon, right? He found out Georgia had a Coast recently.

No, it doesn't. Still don't believe you.

Oh, okay. I was like, What? What are we talking about?

Not a coastal state.

No, I was just asking about Valentine's Day plans, Mike. I know your son and Kevin Durant won't be hanging out anytime soon.

No, they were getting into it.

Which is just it. It was quite the surprise. You were at the Suns game, and then I find out your son. Well, one, he goes to the Suns game and roots for the other team.

He was rooting really for Ja Morant. You know what? That's fine. Yeah. That's fine. Yeah, okay. That's fine. Were you at the game rooting for the Suns? No, because they stink.

That's true. But then he started mocking Kevin Durant.

He was trying to I'd jump up people from the grizzlies.

They didn't need it.

No.

They were going to win no matter what.

For Valentine's Day, no, I do not have anything planned.

Yeah, me neither. Does that make me a bad husband? No.

We Well, I don't know what your agreement is, but the agreement in the right household is, don't worry about Valentine's Day.

That's about where we are, too. But if I tell people that, I do get a little embarrassed.

Yeah, but now if you're like, well, Jason's bringing his spouse to Kentucky.

Yeah, we're going to Tennessee.

Yeah, I'm going to go to Maine. So I can be as far east as possible.

Miles traveled equals more love.

That's right. What do you think of that, Jay?

I've been outdone.

We have shocking stats on the show today. It should be fun. We've picked out, I think, five or six interesting nuggets from the season.

Hold on. This is for Kyle because I asked you if you knew where West Virginia was. I was just doing a bit to make sure you knew it was on the east despite it being called West Virginia. I guess I tuned out because you said it was-I said it was a little Basically, a little bit south.

It was a little bit north. Obviously, it's on the western side. Yes, it's north.

It's really just west. In fact, Virginia goes all the way underneath West Virginia, so it can't be south.

Well, right. It's the opposite of what I said.

There must have been people listening going, Oh, my gosh.

Kyle had to make sure we need to stop that.

If we do add a couple of states here soon, Do we think we can get the Dakotas to combine and the Virginia's to combine and maybe even the Carolinas? That'd be great. If we want to keep around 50- Keep it at 50? Because I think 50 is a good number. It is. The 53 United States. That doesn't work.

No, the songs won't be the game. And if you can't find some to combine, we will find some to get rid of. You know what I mean? Oh, that's true. I don't know how bad we need Wyoming. I don't know.

I don't know either.

Where is Wyoming? What is Wyoming in the capital? We got to move on. All All right, we got a quick question of the day before we get into some of those stats. It's a simple one. Do you have an early fantasy football crush? Oh, because of Valentine's Day. For the 2025 season. Yes, I just realized.

Let's bring that together. I'll kick us off here with mine. I find myself higher than consensus on both the dynasty side and the super early redraft ranking side Side on DJ Moore. He's someone that when I see where he's going, I'm excited to take the shot on him. He's only 27 years old right now. He's coming off a season where this might surprise you. He caught the most passes of his career this year. Really? He did. Yeah, 98. Now, his previous side was the year prior at 96. Obviously, significantly fewer yards. Caleb Williams was not the rookie sensation that bears fans and management had hoped. But he did show enough. I believe that Caleb Williams will figure it out. And there's also the Ben Johnson arrival. That's a big deal to me.

That's the really exciting part.

Yeah. I think that Ben Johnson, who was the Bell of the Ball for offensive hires this offseason, and even the last two offseason, he proved with the Lions as their offensive coordinator with a average to above average quarterback, bringing out MVP type of offensive numbers from Jared Goff. He I think he can get the most out of Caleb Williams. And specifically, if you look at that slot roll that is up for grabs, that Amun Ross-St. Brown roll, you're going to have Odunzey on the outside. I don't think Keenan Allen is going to be back with this team. So DJ Moore should be the central first read target, I project, in this offense. If you look at the last two years, only five wide receivers have more receptions. One of them is Amun Ra St. Brown. Only seven wide receivers have more yards. One of them is Amun Ra St. Brown. So that role, while I don't want to take anything away from Amun Ra, part of the role is being awesome. Yes. I just think DJ Moore is also a pretty awesome player, a talented guy, where if you get the ball in his hands in the right situations, lead him, get him in space, we know he can do amazing things.

Kind of like what we hoped and wanted for Terry McLaren forever, and we finally got there.

I'll go next here. It is rookie season. I'm going to go with Trevion Henderson, running back. He's out of Ohio State. No, I don't know where he is going to be drafted. I don't know when he will be drafted in the NFL draft. I would project pretty high here, at least a day two pick, but he is so exciting. We have a lot of really good rookie runningbacks that are going into the league here. And Henderson is just... Besides Genti, Henderson is the one that is the most exciting to me, that if we get with a really creative offense that he is really going to be successful. He is so explosive. He had a 10 plus yard game on 24 % of his attempts. That's number one in the class, even ahead of the Almighty Ashton Genti So I'm really excited. Jason got to talk about him on the dynasty pod here. I didn't get to do it because it was last week. So I'm here proclaiming my love. Right now, he's my number two rookie prospect until we get more information.

Yeah. Henderson is not my number two running back in this upcoming draft class yet. That could change based on the NFL, but it's- All are welcome to join me. Yeah. The thing that I do love about Henderson is he has extreme explosiveness. The speed is there. And so if you're just shooting for upside, he was like... When I watched him, there were a lot of flashes of Jameer Gibbs. He's not as good as Jameer Gibbs by by any means, but he had those plays that were like, whoa, no one's catching him. So, yeah, he's very exciting.

I think he has. I mean, he's a little bit smaller, so that will be the thing to watch. Not that that's the end, as we've seen here, like Gibbs, Bucky. There's guys who are a little bit smaller, it's working. But to me, he has everything except for an extreme amount of power, which his body archetype is not one that's going to have a bunch of power, but contact balance, he's He's got it. Vision, he's got it. Burst, top to end speed. I am so pumped for Henderson.

Yeah, I think he's my running back four right now. I don't have him in front. But for those of you that are new, maybe you haven't been listening to the dynasty show or you're not familiar with this year's rookie class yet, all four are better than... They score better in all my scouting than the number one running back of last year. This is a much better running back draft class, and it's really flip-flops. Really?

You I like these guys more than Brooks?

Yes, more than Brooks and more than Vincent from last year. I think it's a significantly better running back draft class. And then the flip side is the wide receiver draft class. I'm not excited yet.

Yeah.

I was shocked that DJ Moore was on... I hadn't seen your name pop in. I had seen he put Ashton Jenty in, but DJ Moore is like... He's been a player difficult for people to get excited about.

Yeah, I mean, I get it. It's hard to get excited about a player who just had what appears to be a really down year with a quarterback that you're now very unsure. Going into last year, you were unsure but excited. Going into this year, you're really unsure, but you're scared.

I would say excited and scared would be a good combination of words for the name that I have. I'm so excited. That I have Jamieson Williams. I'm so scared. Jamieson Williams is a player that when the ball is in his hands, there is no question or doubt that he has just next-level NFL talent. He's had problems being consistent, being healthy, being featured.

Not betting on sports. That's just the normal problems.

So there have been some obstacles.

There's been some bumps in the road.

There's been some obstacles, but last year, over a thousand-It's some parlays in the road, Jay. Over a thousand yards receiving so explosive on his 58 receptions. I do think there's the opportunity for him to become more and more valuable for fantasy football. He still finished as the wide receiver, 18 missed two games due to that suspension you talked about. Very young, high draft capital, explosive, fits the mold of the type of player that makes a bigger fantasy impact, even than what Amun Ra does. Amun Ra has managed to be the receiver, the slot receiver, the PPR receiver that still produces for fantasy, still gets into the end zone, but not necessarily the prototype, the Jamar Chase, the Jefferson, a Metcalf, those type of guys. Jamison Williams is the Jalen Waddle, the Tyreek Hill. He will score on end of rounds the way Jaden Reid does or Tyreek Hill has. So I think I'm very excited about Jamison Williams moving into the future because I could see a season where you from 58 and a thousand to maybe at 75 and 1400. I don't think that that's with 10 touch downs. He could score 10 touch downs.

So to me, that's a player I am consciously optimistic about.

Yeah, I mean, the arrow is pointing up. It took a while because he had that large suspension early in his career, then the smaller suspension, he had injuries, and this was such a good team. They didn't need Jamieson-Williams. Now he's an active core part. I think going into this offseason and next This year, he'll be better this coming season than he was this last year. And like you said, he finishes the Water receiver 18. The interesting thing to me is where he's going to be drafted come August, right now on early best ball, ADP on underdog dog. He's the wide receiver 23. So that seems like a pretty good value.

Yeah, I'm interested in that.

All right, let's talk some news.

News and notes from Around the League.

While We know it to be certain now, Kelen Moore, the head coach of the New Orleans Saints.

What a wild ride for Kelen Moore. The fantasy nerds, we were so excited for Kelen Moore, got a couple of really good years. Hey, he could be another up and coming offensive mind here in the NFL. And then Dallas is like, No, we'll see you later. He goes to the Chargers. It's not that great. And then immediately gets picked up by Philadelphia, seemingly helps resurrect their offense from the ashes that it was a couple of years ago. And now he's a head coach. I'm saying He was hot, and then it was, Oh, Kelenmore, it's going to fade into the mist.

And now he's a head coach. Yeah, I think the coaching carousel season worked out really well for him in the sense that everybody was scooped up first. This was the last remaining job. He goes to the Super Bowl and wins. I do think it's a good hire. I've been excited about Kelenmore. I think he's a very competent offensive mind in the NFL. I mean, you've had him- It's always... Sorry. Yeah, you've had him lead really good offenses for now three different franchises, essentially in three years in a row. So he'll be on his fourth franchise in four years, fourth different quarterback. But he's had success everywhere. It hasn't necessarily been overwhelming like, Oh, they their top five offense, but he hasn't been bad anywhere.

It's a big transition for him. We saw this literally. The head coach they could have hired that they wanted to hire, it's been reported, ahead of Kelen Moore, who turned it down, was Cliff Kingsbury. Cliff Kingsbury, great offensive mind, turned it around with Jaden Daniels in Washington, and yet maybe the head coaching job wasn't for him, being focused on the offense and not leading a locker room. So that'll be new. Brandon Staley is going to take over the defense, I believe, in New Orleans. So It will look different there. Wait.

Brandon Staley was the head coach when he was the offensive coordinator. Right. Right? And so now... Have we ever seen that?

I don't know that you're mentioning. I didn't realize it until this second.

Were those aligned?

I think those were aligned. Yeah, right? Because yeah.

Wow. Yeah, so they flipped jobs.

So you used to work for-I'm the captain now. Kyle, you got to see if this has ever happened before. Or at least in such quick succession. It's not like, Oh, a decade later, I bring someone back that I used to- This is two years. Yeah, the year after next, you will work for me. I will be that coach. How funny.

That's wild. Bobby Sloek, who he went from the hotness to the nutness, is now the senior passing game coordinator for the Dolphins, who we will talk about on today's show in the Shocking Stats. Oh, man. And we won't talk about them positively.

Yeah. Do Do you believe that when it is, say, second and 11, as the passing game coordinator, he will recommend not passing? Will he say, We should run? Because that's sure what he did as an offensive coordinator.

Yeah, we hope not. Travis, Kelsey says he's going to take some time to decide whether he'll return to the Chiefs. You guys have an early gut guess for what's going to happen.

I don't know if I have a full early gut, but if you actually listen to the quote, it's It's Kelsey on his podcast talking to his brother, and he just lost the Super Bowl, and it wasn't a... They got him thoroughly embarrassed. And I think he's still really feeling the emotions of the loss. So he had... What was it? A week before the Super Bowl, he was talking about how he has so much football left in him. So I think that it is a... He's just dealing with the weight of that massive loss, and I don't know that he's actually ready to retire, but when you're listening to him do this quote, it sure sounds like he's ready.

Yeah. I don't think he wants to go out like that. Not just losing the Super Bowl. I think he could go out on a season where they don't get to the Super Bowl and whatever. But it was a really bad game for him. I mean, there's been so many... If you're on Twitter, you see all these clips. There's a handful of them. Some are not fair to him, but there are some that's like, wow, he missed on this, he whiffed on that. He looked slow or- A missing whiff. A missing whiff. But on that podcast, he talks about how it was a really bad game for him, not just on his play, but on the sidelines, motivating, lifting people up.

He said, I needed to be a better leader.

Yeah. I don't think that is what he wants his final game of his career to be. I expect him to play. I do expect him to continue naturally to get worse.

I think he'll retire. That's your call? It's the first time I've thought that. Right now, I think he'll retire. You're at to get to the Super Bowl, I know you're the Chiefs, but they're not high. So if you want to go out in a Super Bowl, I mean, I know you didn't win it, but if your skills are declining, if you don't have the fire, I believe the odds of getting to the Super Bowl are 85% in the Patrick Mahomes era. Maybe not anymore. Yeah. Maybe we're going to enter the borough zone.

I mean, if anyone is set up for a- Getting the zone.

What?

You hijacked my point for that? When it's in your head, when you got- If you're going to interrupt with a great joke, I'm for it every single time. That was a bad joke.

I will concur and I will agree.

I need an apology.

But I won't apologize because I assume you were saying something that wasn't important. So it's like, we're even.

That's fair. Talking about Travis Kelsey is set up. Most of these guys, I'm sure, have absolutely no idea Yeah. That football has been your life, and now football is gone. What do you possibly do? Travis Kelsey has some stuff lined up.

Oh, yeah. He'll have whatever he wants. Yes. Jordan Addison, filed for a continuation of his DUI case, a pretrial hearing March 12. Don't forget, Addison, big year. Really got it going, but still has to deal with this DUI case. Mike McDonald, Seahawks are working through whether Locket will be on the roster in 2025. I know you guys had talked about him leaving. I had assumed that he would restructure. I don't think he's, at 33 years old, a prime candidate for being picked up and having to roll somewhere else. We'll see what happens. His cap hit is way too high.

Yeah, it's up to the Seahawks as to whether they want to pay for more of Tyler Locket's services, because if they do, they'll have to restructure, kick the money out a little further.

But I'm not I'm not sure if- It looks like that's what they're figuring out, working through whether both sides can agree to something.

Yeah, when they evaluate the play, I don't know that it's in their best interest. I mean, right now, he's a $30. 9 million cap hit and only $13 million in dead cap. That's still a pretty big dead cap number, but I feel like if I was the general manager-For a 600-yard receiver? Yeah, I would just cut ties and move my franchise forward.

Did you guys see Baby Kuba's talking about Ken Bone Walker?

No, but I know what that does to you.

We're living in the permanent state of canine hype.

Yeah.

Well, we only get hype.

He's a hype machine. It's exciting.

The Bone Zone.

It's That time of the year. I mean, that's all we are going to be doing now is breaking down what coaches are saying about their players. And I am very excited.

Well, yeah, the comments were just alluding to throwing the ball to the running back position. There was that, yes. Which he is one of them.

Yes. But he was specifically talking about Ken Walker. This wasn't, We're going to get Ken going. We're going to get Charbs going. It was Ken Walker propaganda, and I accepted.

We just got that from Grub.

Yeah.

I think Grub told the truth. I mean, look how much Ken Walker actually caught the ball this year.

On the truth episode, we did see that when Kenneth Walker was playing, he was very good. He was obviously dealt with injuries. That's a huge A huge issue for Kenneth Walker. He's not been able to stay healthy, but he was good for fantasy.

A reminder, the Ultimate Draft Kit pre-order available right now at ultimatedraftkit. Com. You get instant access to the dynasty Pass, all of our rookie rankings, and a whole lot more available for the dynasty players. Ultimatedraftkit. Com. If you order by March first, you can enter. You'll be automatically entered to win a Listener League spot and get some other sweet pre-order perks, again, by march first, ultimatedraftkit. Com. We'll We'll take a break, and we'll jump into some shocking stats from 2024. All right, let's do it.

How'd you do that? I'm not even mad. That's amazing.

That's a pretty good graphic right there for those watching.

The first time that I saw that, I really stayed quiet.

Except for the part where it went-There was a real long-It did go to black. It went to black.

Hard fade there. No fade. A wipe.

Hard cut to black.

Well, we won't be fixing that in post.

I forget. Al is always like, Please just don't say anything.

Just don't mention it. Don't talk about it. We don't have to show our warts. Yes, we do.

Do we? All right, shocking stats from 2024. We'll start here. We'll call it Miami Vice or Miami's Vice. The Dolphins. Listen to this. 31st in the NFL with 45 total plays of 20 plus yards. That is 31 fewer explosive plays compared to last year. In fact, when you think of that team, you always thought about explosive plays. Tyree Kael had 19 targets of 20 plus air yards that ended up with five receptions and one countdown, which means that these players had more 20 plus air yard receptions than Tyreek.

This is unacceptable.

A 32-year-old Keenan Allen. Wow. A 33-year-old Adam Thelen. I still got it. A Jalen Tolbert. Jalen. An Andre Yoshavas, a two 2-2 at well, and Akei Shon Butte.

So the question is-Are they a buy-low offense?

Unacceptable. Or the beginning of a boring offense.

Right.

They saw what the Chiefs did, and they're like, We got to get in on that.

Yeah, it's a back-to-back Super Bowl by just Dinken and Duncan. Most of the time, recency bias wins, and you say whatever happened last year is what's going to happen next year, just mentally. I think in order to have that take, there has to be additional reason. Here, it seems like there is. One is the end of Tyreek Hill's playing career. He is clearly closer to that than ever. It It looked like he slowed down a bit. Certainly, the stats bear that out, considering he didn't miss any games and had about half the yards of the season prior. But the other is the change of the offensive mindset with Tua, where he gets the ball out way too quickly. I mean, it's just like the ball is snapped and it's out. And I guess it works, especially works against bad teams. But I don't know how much of that is to protect from the concussion, protect from the poor offensive line play. Maybe if the offensive line was more trustworthy, they'd give him time in the pocket to air things out. Right now, though, it's like Tyree Kill is going to be older, and you're going to forever worry about the concussion issues.

So I think it's more of the same this next year.

There is a difference between what works and what we want as fantasy players. We clearly have a Kansas City Chiefs football team that has distinguished between the two. We don't get what we want in Kansas City very often, but it has worked for them.

65% of Tua's attempts were fewer than 10 yards.

To me, it seems like a bit of an experiment by a franchise saying, Hey, we'd rather have this version of the offense, but a competent Tua who's on the field and healthy and not getting hit all the time, then a more explosive offense, which might fit McDaniel's offense better, but would require a different quarterback because they committed money to Tua. Tua can execute an offense, whether it's... He could execute the deep pass offense, too. But it seemed like they made a cognizant decision. And so do we get what we want? It sounds like you're saying no.

I believe we will not get what we desire with our hearts, which is massive explosivo offense. This is also a team that was second place in the division. In Miami's splits, when they play good teams versus bad teams are wild. They're 3 and 14 versus teams with winning records in their three years with him as head coach.

He's got to be on the hot seat.

He'll definitely be on the hot seat this year. He's been forgiven a lot because of the two injuries. But that being said, the franchise, the general manager, it seems like they don't want to go and sign a really good backup quarterback because they want to not just protect two of physically Basically in the game, but mentally, this is to his franchise. We're not going to go out. We don't need a prolific backup, someone that could come in and compete for the job.

But that's the wrong- That's beyond stupid. It's so dumb. I think it has to change after this past year's experience, right?

I don't think it will change. I certainly agree that... I mean, if I was the general manager, that would be one of the number one things I'd be looking at is who's a backup quarterback that can come in here and get us to the playoffs? Because that's my job as general manager is to win football games should another injury happen, which if another one happens- Yeah, you need a Mariota, maybe?

Somebody like that.

Yeah, I mean, I would hope they- They're not a lot of them.

No. It's easy to criticize, but it's hard to find your Flacko, your Sam.

I don't know.

Andy Dalton. Those guys are few and far between.

Flacko could do the check down offense.

Two is under contract until 2029. What? Yeah.

It's that long? Yeah.

But I think, too, as a really great player, is just philosophically, we saw a complete changeover in that offense, which look, if you believe that about the offense, then maybe you have your question marks around Can Jalen Waddle be a prolific fantasy player or not? This is going to have to do a lot with short-area targets.

I think the nice thing will be ADP. All we have to quote right now is best ball ADP, but like, Tyreek is at wide receiver 12 going around pick number 22. And then let me scroll. Where did we find Jalen Waddle? Where are you at, bro? Oh, he's going at... Jalen Waddle right now is going as wide receiver 30. So The risk is being baked into the ADP, which for me means that I'll take some shots on that.

Where it's not being baked in, though, is we saw Achan was at four. Oh, yeah. So could Devon H-in in this offense be the number one overall running I doubt it.

I don't think so.

Can't give you an Echler year in this offense?

I mean, certainly with the past-100 receptions? Yeah. With the pass catching volume, he can be top five. I think for all parties here, for avoiding the quick release, protecting Tua, helping the run game, they have got to make this offseason about the offensive line. Their offensive line needs to be... That needs to be the primary focus. If they want to fix their offense, they have to fix their offensive line.

Shocking stat number two, we'll call it James was cooking in 2024. James Cook, fantasy points via TD, the percentage of fantasy points via a countdown, 43 %. We had a brief moment, I think three or four weeks ago, where I made a statement about James Cook and how I'd be out on him for next year. Very strong reactions as though I thought he wasn't a good player, which was not my point. It was cost in the draft, the fantasy drafts, versus likelihood of receiving a level of production as great as we just received from him. He had fewer opportunity snaps and yards than last year, which is shocking because you had a season last year where you knew you were moving on from competition, and you thought you would be getting a more full-time role. Instead, we had weeks where we were like, Oh, that's a lot of Ty Johnson. And then Ray Davis. Ray Davis seems to be the guy that at a minimum this past year was your salt away the game guy. You're up by a lot of points. Let's just let Ray Davis have the fourth quarter.

Ray Davis had six touch downs on his own, three passing, three rushing, and eight into the passing work. James Cook is a really good catching back. Two years ago, he had 63 % of the running back target share for this team, and that fell to 48 % this year because they had a three-way committee.

James Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns. 43 % of his fancy points came via a shutdown. He was the number one in the NFL in terms of the highest percentage of attempts turning into a countdown. So all of that, look, it speaks to the fact that he's an explosive player. Big runs were in the repertoire. Seven 47% of his attempts were turned into a shutdown. But over the last six years, that high of a percentage was a direct signal in fantasy for regression the following year.

For points coming from touch downs?

Yeah. And so you look If you get that and you say, What odds are you playing here? Can you score 16 more times? And if you can't, it necessitates your volume increasing or your pass catching increasing. Something has to get you back to that point if you're not scoring 16 times. And look, it doesn't matter who you are. If 16 times for Derek Henry, you've got a chance of being down at 11 or 12.

Yeah. There's no way you would bet for a repeat of that. If you put the line at 10 and a half touch downs for James Cook, it would be very difficult to take the over there. So there's going to be a significant regression there. On the plus side for James Cook, though, and what we need to give him credit for for doing this year is he was very explosive, and he's a super good running back. He made a difference. We saw it through the playoffs. The commentators, the world at large, realized James Cook is their second best offensive player. Period. It's Josh Allen is the leader, and their next best weapon is James Cook. So if you're saying that there is a weapon that can score touch downs, can catch the ball, can rush for over a thousand yards on a great offense, right now, he's being drafted as the running back 13 at this point for early best ball. He's outproduced that spot the last two years. Two years ago, he was the running back 11, even though he only had two touch downs. This last year, running back eight with all these touch downs.

Will you still be out? Did any of the arguments online sway you at running back 13 next year for you to consider being in on James Cook, or you still feel like now his role has gone down and the touch downs won't be there?

I I think it's just a matter of whether you believe he can ascend to being one of those top-tier, whatever you want to say, the Saquons, Gibbs, Béjan, Kyren, from a workload perspective. Is that in in the future. No. I don't currently have a conviction watching him play football that that's how they're going to utilize them. I look at it more like Aaron Jones in Green Bay, where, look, you could. On the right year, you will end up around the number 5, 6 at the position. But the team has shown they're willing to use a rotation of backs. They did it to great success. They won the division. I don't know. I mean, that was one of the problems in the playoff.

Aaron Jones is the best comp imaginable because he wasn't a guy that went out there and was getting 350 opportunities a year. This is a guy who was usually 264, 232, and finished as the running back 2, 5, 12, 9, these same finishes as James Cook. And he even had a season with 16 rushing touch downs. Aaron Jones did. The following season, he had nine rushing touch downs. So he was... Obviously, it's going to be difficult, if not basically impossible, for the average back to go back to back 15 plus rushing touch downs. It's tough to just be out on James Cook, though.

All right. Shocking stat number three. We'll call it the target packing order. I don't know if I like that title.

I get it. You know what I mean? Well, once you explain it, That's the packers.

Kyle, not my favorite. The packers were the only team in the NFL without a single player seeing a target share above 19 %.

Did we bring up the-We did. Josh Jacobs quote?

Yeah, Josh Jacobs quote, it was a headline maker. If you listen to him say it, it's softer than the way it came across in the headlines because he gives a lot of credit to the receiving core and the talent that they have.

Sure he drives the bus over.

It wasn't even that to me. It was more like- Like a light pickup truck? It was like, these are guys... And again, let me read that stat again. The packers are the only team in the NFL without a single player above 19 % of the target chair. In fact, Jaden Reid had the fewest receptions, which was... Of any player to lead a team with 11 plus wins since 2015. But his point was more like, here's a bunch of guys that might be able to ascend to become a number one, but it would be nice if we had a number one already. That was the point. It'd be nice if we had somebody that was a proven commodity, and everyone keeps hinting about Devante Adams coming back home, coming back home, because he's probably going to be dropped by the jets.

I don't think Adams wants to do that.

He wants to stay in California.

Yeah, he's like, I've been in the snow.

But that would be a reuniting of Josh Jacobs.

Put a roof over Lambo and Devante Adams is in.

And Devante Adams. I think there were some strong reactions. I think Jaden Reid and Dontabian Wicks, in particular were vocal about their displeasure with the quote.

Oh, I did not see that. I am totally there for that.

He couldn't take a scan of that, to which I say, Go be a number one, and then he will not have said that. Go demand a target share above 19%.

It's really hard to criticize someone for telling the truth. It's not always kind. Sometimes it's insulting. I don't think he intended to be insulting. But if the truth is insulting, you can't be too mad at someone. You could say the quorum. You don't say that to the media. But is he wrong? I guess, let me ask you that. Is he wrong? Do the packers already have a true alpha wide receiver?

No, they do not have a proven number one wide receiver.

Can one of these guys become a true alpha wide receiver one?

I don't think so.

All he did was say what everyone sees.

But you don't do that to your family out in the public with the quote of- Yeah, I get that. Because to say, They all have the potential to be a number one, but we need a guy that's proven to be a number one.

That's why I don't... You don't like that comment?

It's a back-end of compliment to me.

Here's the thing.

You could be it, but I guess we need someone who is because you aren't.

My kids could do their homework all the time, but I would love to have a kid that did their homework all the time. Are you going to bring that one home? I'm testing it out how it feels to put my family on. That sounds bad. Exactly. I'm putting them on black.

Yeah, that sounds like you need a new kid. I think that's a little apples and oranges.

I'm just saying I'm trying to think if it's my team-If there's a free agent kid out there that did their homework, you might sign them. Just saying it would be great to have one on the team that just-Just did it. I could trust did their homework. Proven number one kid. A proven number one kid. That's what I'm saying. If you look at that wider-I love my kids, and they all have the talent and the ability to be my favorite. But they're like number twos. I just wish it was a proven favorite.

I think you figured out a lot.

I don't think Jaden Reid can be that guy. If you look at the pathway, I think Jaden Reid is number two. And I think the only one on the entire roster that could actually do it would be Don Tavion Wix. I think he's the only one. We're at the career place for Romeo Dobbs, where you're not going up. You're just what you are.

I think Romeo Dobbs is a strong supporting wide receiver.

And they seem to have a team of supporting wide receiver. So I agree with the comment, but the big question is, will this change? Are you bullish for the... Would you be bullish about the Green Bay offense going into next year with Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs if they don't have another person? Or are you always going to be playing the roulette at wide receiver with this group?

If they don't do anything to help with the Christian Watson injury, I'll be more concerned. But I feel like I've seen enough of Lafleur and his offenses and Jordan Love's ability to say that the packers will still be a strong offense. With these guys that it feels like we're crapping on, but we're trying to say that they're still competent players. With that group, they were still top 10 in most major statistics, eighth in points scored, fifth in yards gained, sixth in passing, touched down rate, sixth in expected points per pass attempt. This was a strong offense. You can put Tucker Kraft in there of maybe not a number one tight end, but it can be very helpful to an offense. So overall, I'm still going to be in on the packers, but I do hope they add. I do hope they add a number one.

How excited would you be for Jordan Love if Devante Adams came to that roster or somebody of that pedigree?

Yeah, I'd be much more excited.

I'd be very excited.

I would trade for D. K.

Metcalf. Don Tavian Wix is a really interesting name. D. K.

Metcalf, a number one wide receiver?

Yeah. I think he is. I really do.

I think he I think if he had a really good quarterback, yeah. He's at least an alpha wide receiver one from a capability. In muscles, yeah. Yeah, just a capability standpoint. I like-So Romeo just got to go.

He's got to get the HGH and bulls I don't think there's some things you can't do.

You just don't grow as tall.

A lot of DK Metcalf trade rumors again. The team seems ready to move on from him.

I'm glad that you brought up Dontavian Wicks as the one guy who maybe could do it, because I think this season, we all wanted him to do it. He's got the talent. He's always open. He earns the targets. He doesn't catch them very well.

39 of 74 targets. I'm not sure how many were catchable.

I would assume most. But he does have a lot of traits that appear really good. It's hard when you're a packer to not see, and especially with the quotes from Lafleur about how he reminds him of Devante Adams. Do you remember when Devante Adams' first 1,000-yard season came? What year it was?

Yeah, it was year four, I think.

I think four. Year five. Five.

Yeah, because I spent four years insulting- Because he kept getting to like 990 something. Devante Adams because he could get to 990. Because he kept getting to like 990 something, right? But he's not the rule.

No, he's the exception. No, he is the exception. But his first two years, 446 yards, 483 yards. Sometimes we are quick to just kill a player's career.

I think Dontavian Wicks, if he could catch the football, he's got everything else.

Yeah, exactly. So he's just got to learn one thing.

Just learn the- Just learn how to catch. Just learn the one thing.

Get this man a jugs machine.

He needs the receiving part.

They're way more expensive.

Did you look into a jugs machine?

Yeah, I mean- What do you mean we? What you guys did together?

We were talking about this at some point and found out it's a machine that does very little.

There's two little tires.

It seems not complicated to build, and they're like, Yeah, it'll be a couple of $1,000.

There's two little tires. You know what I mean? And then it's like-Oh, Jordan.

Yeah, because Jordan Mason bought one, so we went into that discussion.

Holes that go to the ground. The material cost is like, I don't know, what is it, 50 bucks? You're going to charge me thousands for this?

Well, you got to sink the tires up real science-like.

Someone's got a good patent on that, and they are holding out.

Pat Reilly does. It's Pat Reilly's patent. All right, we'll take a break. We got some more stats for you. Before we went to break, I brought up Pat Reilly's name because he has the...

He's always up to no He's got the 3-peat trademark.

But then I realized he had come to an agreement with the NFL and others to be able to use it. But I also thought when he signed that, it's all contented upon the Chief's winning. You're not printing up stuff.

Pat Reilly's pretty upset.

So he lost. That was a big bet on Kansas City.

Hope he didn't start spending that money.

All right. Number four on our shocking stats today.

I think Pat Reilly is okay.

He's probably okay. Welcome to the Laser So Baker Mayfield's eight finishes.

Who?

Baker Mayfield's eight finishes. Inside the top five, we're the most among all quarterbacks. More than Lamar, more than Burrow, more than Josh Allen.

This is my favorite part.

In fact, that is tied for the most Mahomes has ever had in a season. Eight finishes inside the top five at the position on a season in which 4,541 was the accomplishment. It's wild because I've been thinking about Godwin, right? Godwin has the injury. He's a free agent. To me, the injury might be the pathway to coming back.

I think he's back.

To Baker Town. Then you'd have quite the group for Baker for another year, Godwin coming back at some point, and then Evans and McMillon and Otton and company. So it's interesting to To say, is Baker going to have more than one elite year when you're a pocket passer? Sure, there's a lot of variability, but he ran for 378 yards this past year. He scored three times on the ground. He's 29 years old. How many more top five finishes do you think he has as a starting quarterback, rest of his career?

Like a rest of season top five?

No, the rest of his career, how many times does he finish on the week in the top five?

I didn't mean that either.

All right, hold on.

I meant what I said.

Okay, say it again. Do the play call.

How many more top five fantasy seasons does he have as a starting quarterback?

Got it. So end of season, he finished.

That's what I was saying.

End of season.

Yes.

Zero.

You think never again?

I think never again.

So the thing I agreed with you. All right. You're never.

Back in the top five? Yeah, I don't think he's going to be top five.

You're forgetting about the dog.

He's got that dog in him.

The dog is there.

The dog is barking, is angry.

Not all pocket passers have the dog.

That's true.

That's an angry dog.

This is his seventh season. This was his first season in the top five as a fantasy finish ever. And he did that on the back of... This is the one stat that is very predictably unsustainable for everyone, even the superstars. We talk about this when Patrick Mahomes does it. We talked about this back in the day when Aaron Rodgers, when your countdown passing rate, the percentage of your passes that turn into touch downs, is outlandishly high for your career average, that doesn't stick. That's not a stat that's like, Well, because he did it last year, he has leveled up.

7.

2%. 7. 2. And the years prior, 4. 9, 3, 4. 1, 5. 3, 4. 1, 5. 6. We know who Baker is, and it's not a bad quarterback. He's a good quarterback. Even if he's leveled up, he's not going to throw 7. 2% countdown percentage next year. I bet my house on it.

I agree with that, but his career is so bizarre.

Yeah, I don't like the seven-year argument. He's got two years that we can pay attention to.

His first three years in Cleveland, he was at 5. 6, 4. 1, and 5. 3. So I'm going to put him closer into the five. Sure. Which that's above- I think that's fair. That's above league average. I don't think he's going to get to 7. 2, but we've now seen him as a starter in Tampa Bay for two years. He was over 4,000 yards in both of them. The first year was just 28 touchstones, then it jumped up to 41. I think we're somewhere... I think 28 would be...

If I set the line at 34 touchstones next year. 34 touchstones, do you take?

I would take the under. That's a really good...

I think I take the over.

I think it's a really good line.

I think he'll throw 35.

But if he only threw 28 touchstones and played a full season, and he's at 4,200 yards or whatever, that would surprise me.

That was good enough for a quarterback 10 for what it's worth in 2023. Nice thing about Baker, 17 games played, two consecutive years. They're always fighting for their playoff spot at the end of the season, and he plays through injury.

Because of the way- I'll say one more time, though. The way that his career has gone. One more time.

Maybe not next year.

I like Baker. I think I have him much higher in dynasty startup rankings than most people do.

So you're saying Because I love Baker. I love watching him. I love rooting for him. And I think he's a very good quarterback. But you're saying you love him specifically for fantasy. You are higher than consensus on what you believe he'll score for you.

Yeah, I like the situation. He got a first bound Hall of Fame wide receiver, Jay.

I have Kyler Murray. Sing about it. Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield on my dynasty team, and I genuinely look at Baker, who is a throw in backup in a trade as my better quarterback.

Man, Baker Kyler is That's a crazy conversation.

You pulled up a stat yesterday, Jay, or Mike did, with the all-time... I think it was you, Mike. The all-time completion percentage leader. You were talking about Burrow.

Yeah, it was a Goodbury tweet.

It was something with the minimum games played. He's actually currently if Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow, if his career was to be over right now, would be the all-time completion percentage.

With Bries at number two, and then Kyler was at three?

Yeah.

So Mike, final answer then. How many more top five seasons the rest of his career? I went with one.

I think it is at least one. I will go... Man, top five is so tough.

It's a tough one.

I'll probably say one.

And you're at zero, Jay?

But very useful for fantasy. Yeah, and that is not... I don't want it to come across as me saying that he's not good for fantasy, but top five is really difficult.

It comes across as though you hate Baker, and you're not allowed to root for him ever again.

The people who are listening right now, they listen all year, and they know how much I love Baker Mayfield.

How many top fives for- Who?

Laser.

For Justin Herbert?

How many top fives for Justin Herbert left in his career? Yeah, it's a good question. That's a great counter argument because I certainly would- He's much younger. I would not put it as zero at all. I think he has three more top fives. Wow.

Three more? Yeah.

So Herbert-Better get to it. Herbert's about to be 27, and currently has one top five finish.

I would probably say one more for Herbert.

But I bring him up to just... Yeah, it's a good name. He's a pocket passer. Herbert runs a little bit like Baker does.

How many more for Burrow?

Oh, quite a few. Well, you have to assume he misses every other season, so that's going to lower that number. And then he gets the comeback player of the year. Every other season? Every other season.

Burrow out here nonstop, publicly putting pressure on his team is so delicious. He just did it again. He was talking about the Eagles because they were talking how salary cap works, and he was explaining, well, if we convert some of my contract and move things around, They should just do what the Eagles do. They're paying everybody, and it seems to work.

Yeah, that's a tough sell on certain ownership groups. They just literally had another player request to trade today.

Yeah, but they have so So much cap.

Yeah, they don't like to spend it. Certain ownership groups are better than others. Yeah.

They don't hear cap. They hear profit.

Figure it out, man. Get tea back there.

That'll be our last one for today, then. Bungling bangles. The bangles were leading They were tied on 69 % of their offensive plays in 2024. That is absurd. It's pretty nice. Only the Vikings had a higher rate, and they were the only team in the NFL at 60 plus % that did not make the playoffs. So they were leading and playing well and just one in seven in one score games.

It's the anti-chiefs there.

That was before 3-0 in their final three games. But look, their defense, atrocious across the board in every category. They lost their defensive coordinator or let him go this offseason.

You know how Mike Tomlin is too good of a coach to allow the Pittsburgh Steelers the opportunity to draft the top five future quarterback? He had to miss the playoff. He nerfs them in the playoffs because they don't have a Super Bowl caliber team, but he always takes the caliber he has and gets them to the play-off. So people are mad that he's not winning in the playoffs. He's a great coach. He's just hurting them because he's not bad enough.

Right.

This is the exact opposite situation with the bangles. The exact opposite. Joe Burrow is too good to allow Zack Taylor to get fired. But what needs to happen is... You know what I mean?

Wait, is this the new guy?

No, Zack Taylor is not a putrid, stinky coach like the new guy, like the Dennis Allen. I don't hate Zack Taylor. I don't think Zack Taylor is a good enough coach to… It's doing a disservice to Joe Burrow. I want to see him have someone that comes in who knows how to help a franchise win.

I couldn't be on the more opposite side of you. You love Zack Taylor. The problem was the defense. Zack Taylor was was a promoted quarterback's coach. He's got the best quarterback in football on an amazing offense. The defense was bottom five. So you can blame Zack Taylor for not firing a heralded head coaching candidate. Why am I forgetting his name? Oriamo. Our... Goodness gracious. Where are we? I don't know where we're going. Who's the fire defensive coordinator? The fire defensive coordinator. Kyle, help me out here. Anarumo, not ORIAMI.

Samsonite.

Lou Maruma was the fault. To me, it's like, You got the best freaking offensive football. You're doing all the right stuff.

I know what you're saying there. Obviously, the defense was the issue for this team.

And they went to the Super Bowl with Zack Taylor.

But there are still, just on a game by game basis, play calling a decision making and cowardness that I think is not- You've never forgiven them for P.

Ryan.

Oh, the Super Bowl? That's one of 100, man.

No, you- I didn't even remember that one. You bring it up. Yes, you did. You bring it up all the time because you have particular plays you don't like. And maybe you're right. Maybe this is one of those teams that needs to make the change to take further advantage of Joe Burrow. I mean, the Bulls did it with Jordan. They moved on from winning season.

Yeah, from a good coach to a great coach.

To a great coach. The Warriors did it, right? They won a lot of games with Mark Jackson, went on to Steve Kerr.

Harbaugh coming in to the chargers feels like what I want to have happen for the bangles. But to be fair, I don't know that there's a Harbaugh sitting out there.

I was going to say, is there a great coach that doesn't have a job.

I mean, Bill Belichick was available.

I do not want Bill Belichick coaching my team.

I think everyone thinks that, including NFL teams.

Yes, they have proven that.

It's like, you're the best, but no, thank you.

He's so old. Yeah, he is. He is quite old. But Pete Carroll got a job. He didn't stop Pete Carroll.

Would you have been more excited for the Raiders with Carroll or Belichick?

Oh, that's a good question.

That's funny because my answer is-I think it's Carroll. Yeah, mine too.

Carroll, because Pete Carroll is more willing to do something like bring Chip Kelly in where Belichick will come in. Greatest coach of all time, Bill Belichick with no Tom braided. At the end there, one of them went and won a Super Bowl, the other one fated into the mist.

Why can't you just They have co-head coaches? Two? Brilliant offensive mind, brilliant defensive mind.

That's what the coordinators are.

No, but that's all there is. There's just two.

So there's no coordinators.

It's just two head coaches. No, two head coaches. It's like Taylor and Spags from the Chiefs, co-head coaches.

I don't know.

That'd be awkward locker room.

What is the phrase where it's like when you have two many...

When you have two quarterbacks, you have none. Exactly.

I think that would be the- When you have two head coaches, you have But there are a lot of situations where you're like, you want Zack Taylor's influence on the offense, maybe.

I don't know. Burrow lost season. It was a lost season for the Cincinnati Bingo.

It was not lost for fantasy teams. No, it wasn't. We were having a great time with Joey B.

Do we need their defense to be bad?

It helps. We want their defense to be bad. That is for darn sure.

Leading or tied on 69 90% of all of their plays didn't make the playoffs. That is a shocking stat. The Bangles made the playoffs. The Bangles were... I'm sorry, the Broncos. The Broncos made the payoff, and they were leading Beating 44 % of the time. That's wild.

That's almost like they had a better head coach than Sean Payton.

Yeah. That's what we do. You got What? 31 teams that need a new head coach after their failure of a season. One doesn't. And he seemed like he was going to get fired in the first quarter of the year. All right, we'll wrap it up. One more reminder, head to ultimatedraft. Ca. Jointhefoot. Com. Order by March first. Get in to win a Listener League spot. Come and play with us in 2025. And if you want an extra episode of the show, you can go to jointhefoot. Com. Become a supporter. You get that extra episode every Thursday, the Footcast. Answering your questions, getting you ready for the offseason. And if you want both of those things, that is the ultimate Footcland membership, and you'll get the UDK and everything we have all season long, and never have to think about it again. So you can do that at jointhefoot. Com as well. That'll do it for today's episode. But don't worry, we'll be back. Thanks for joining us.

Thank you, everybody. Goodbye.

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