Take Swap! + Tilt Prevention Tips - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/22
Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast- 168 views
- 22 Aug 2024
Draft tips and a fun new segment on today’s fantasy football podcast! Andy, Mike, and Jason are forced to read fantasy player takes written by each other! Plus, NFL News, and tips to avoid panicking during your fantasy football drafts! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for August 22nd, 2024.
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2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com
(00:00) - Intro
(03:10) - Tilt prevention
(07:40) - NFL News
(14:05) - Take Swap
(39:15) - Mailbag
(41:20) - Kirk Cousins outlook
(46:50) - George Pickens outlook
(49:45) - Half point per first down scoring
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Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
Welcome in. Thursday, August 22nd. Andy, Mike, and Jason, the fantasy footballers, back for another episode. Very excited to be with you. Thank you for listening. Thank you for spending some of your day with us. We appreciate that.
And we hope it's worth your time, that you get smarter, and that you enjoy your day more.
There's a chance. There's a chance that's all true. We do have a pretty fun episode today. We have some news to catch you up on, and we're debuting a brand new segment on the show today that I thought would be fun. And we're calling it Take Swap. So we have written some rather concise but interesting fantasy football takes for one another, and we have not read these takes.
I think what we've done is we've just corrected course for our fellow colleagues. We see where they are just wrong. And so we have done our friends across the table of service, and we have written them what they should be saying instead of what they are constantly saying.
So, yeah, we're getting one another to put some things on record today against their will. And they have to read them no matter what.
That's the rule, right? Wait, what's on these?
I'm just saying no matter what, you got to read it.
All right. Okay.
Brand new take, Jason. We have- Trying to get me canceled?
What are you doing here?
See, that would hurt me, too. I think we're safe in that department.
Yeah. See you later, suckers. Fantasy footballers with Mike.
Yeah, this might have been a mistake. A couple of headlines as we get into the quick question. Just a reminder, the Megabole available open right now. Come and join thousands of Footclan members in the largest fantasy football tournament on the planet. And And that's megalibull. Com. Every Footclan supporter gets a free entry, and you can learn all the rules about the league, the trades, the settings, the playoffs.
The awards.
Every week of the season, we update a standings list, and we often comment about that on this show, so you'll be able to find out how you're doing in the big picture. But megalobull. Com. And the Ultimate Draft Kit available right now, go to ultimatedraftkit. Com. Get all of the tools and resources you need to dominate at your draft. If you want, you can use the app during your draft, to mark players as drafted, to set some players aside as targets, and a ton of other tools available at ultimatedraftkit. Com. Today's quick question. Jumping right in. This one comes in over on X from Trey Snolder writes in. That's the handle.
Of course.
Do you guys have any tips for preventing or dealing with tilt during your fantasy draft, which is real thing. You've got a plan, and the plan can go a little bit sideways.
Yeah, we've all been there, and we all have our plans and all of our break glass in case of emergency thing. And then sometimes that glass is like, Oh, man. It's already been It's already been broken. It's already been broken. Now, what do I do with this shard of glass? What do you do?
I shank people.
Yeah, but oftentimes when you're on tilt, you shank yourself. You know what I mean? You're getting in your own way of successful drafting. I would just say, look, it's backup plans or cry. It's like- That's your plan?
It can be both.
You're saying that your way of avoiding tilt is tears?
I'm saying that if you don't have a backup plan for whatever is about to happen, you will cry and tilt.
I got you. I thought those were companions. If your backup plans don't work, then you cry.
Whenever you're a couple of pics away. Let's say you're four pics away, and there's two guys you like. Stop it. Stop it. You're four pics away. Find four players that you like, or I guess then five players that you like. You can't do that to yourself. You can still tier them. We want you to draft in tiers and have that successful... That's going to also, tier-based drafting, which we've got all of our tiers in the ultimate draft kit, that will help you avoid these massive mistakes because you know where the value is still left over. And so you can usually have that value there when you come back around to your next pick. But really, when we tilt, it's because we're not giving ourselves enough options. We're saying that I'll only be happy if this guy or that guy is there, and you're just setting yourself up for failure.
Yeah. And my answer was just acceptance, because if you're in that situation where everything depends on one player coming to your team, and that means, okay, my next pick... A lot of questions come in. They're like, Do I start running back Wide receiver, wide receiver? Or do I start wide receiver, running back, running back? What do I do? That's not letting the draft come to you. That's not accepting what just happened and adjusting to what took place in the draft. That is really dependent on everything following the right way, which will lead to you tilting. The sooner you accept that that player was taken that you were targeting, the quicker you'll be able to materialize a plan for the future. Just understanding that, look, the draft is going to go different than I thought. It happens every year in our League of Records, and we've been playing with these guys for 15 years. So just accept.
And I think just really knowing who your tilt players are And look, they can't be first or second-round guys. If you're tilting over players in the first or the second, then what are you doing? Get a hold of your life. You know where you're going to be drafting, and you know the range of guys that you're going to be able to And so after that, it's if you know that these are your guys, don't play stupid games, because when you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes, as I tell my children. And just make sure you get those players. You might have to take a player around early, but if that is your guy that you got to have, take them in the fourth instead of the fifth, or take them in the fourth instead of the sixth. I don't know. Just know who those players are, because it shouldn't really be too many. We all have those few players. We're like, I got to get that guy. Just make sure you do it.
I would also add that you might make a mistake. You legit might panic pick somebody. That happens. You get on the clock and you're like, I don't know what to do. Then you make the pick, and then you make the pick, and then you come to your senses, and you're like, Oh, no.
Don't let that spiral. You have no way to recover. When those things happen. Yeah.
And what I'm saying is, redeem the draft. If you do make that mistake, try best to just get back on the horse and make the right next pick.
Implement some box breathing and bring it all back.
Or run away from the draft, screaming, and never come back. Sure.
News and notes from Around the League, presented by USAA Insurance.
Well, Mike Tomlin said that running back Jalen Warren's hamstering injury is not of long-term concern, probably out for this week. That's pretty big I did not make any extensive changes after the news of the injury because I figured week one was going to be okay for Jalen Warren. I'm talking five or six carries, danced around.
Yeah, I really just... I think I took a little away from it, but mostly just moved his risk rating up. I don't like camp strings.
Camp strings, yes. While we are giving all of this news and talking about how a player is doing this week, if they're going to be back next week, it is worth just bearing in mind, NFL kickoff is weeks. It's in two weeks from today. So that is the timeline for when they say they're going to be ready week one, that is two weeks from now.
Yeah, it's a good reminder.
I just hear this week-to-week stuff, and now I start getting the...
Yeah, you get to that second of the week-to-week, and you're playing football.
It's either a week or if it's week to week, then you're missing week one.
All right. Which is, I mean, Curtis Samuel sitting on week to week right now. Exactly. Jalen Waddle returned to practice on Wednesday. That's good. Kyrie Kale held out as a precaution. Waddle had been out of practice since August seventh with undisclosed minor injury.
Yeah, don't like that. It wasn't really loud.
Why you no disclosed?
It wasn't very loud on social media. I went and was like, What are you talking about? And then saw a few posts about it from a couple of days ago. But this was not like... The people in Miami were not sounding the alarm about it, reporting about it all the time, at least the beat reporters I follow. I do have to be like, Okay, I guess it was a minor injury, and they're just letting him be fully healthy.
Dallas Goddard did not practice on Wednesday. Oblique injury. Injuries have been a part of his story for a while.
And not that we ever, ever, ever want injuries, but it is one of the things where when Dallas Goddard has gone down in the past, you just see what happens to Devante Smith. It is wonderful for fantasy.
Yeah, consolidation of targets. Yeah. All right, guys. Oh, man. I mean, I almost feel like sad music belongs here. But Kendre Miller, Saints running back. Early offseason, hopes and dreams. He may be placed on injured reserve to start the season. It would rule him out for the first four games. He pulled his ham string on day one in training camp. They were already changing offensive systems. The Taislem Hill buzz as a running back has been building. You already have Jamal Williams there, and Alvin Kamara is the R-B-1.
And Uncle Cromogen.
Dennis Allen, Dennis the Minus, came out and also said, I know he's talented, but I don't know if he can learn the system. I don't know if he can pick up the system because I haven't seen him out there. What? So now your barrier to success is health and a coach that doesn't believe in you.
Sometimes being a leader means you protect the people who are under your leadership. And you just say, He's He's a really talented guy. It hasn't gone the way that we saw it going when we drafted him in the third round. Really excited to get him on the field, but it's been a struggle.
You don't think that-Easy.
You know what? I made that up off the top of my head. Really? Yeah. Just now.
Like, if a microphone was in your face, hypothetically, you could come up with that.
Just now. I have no experience being a coach talking to the media.
But you're also not stressed out that your job is on the and that you don't know what you're doing. You don't have fears of those.
Yeah. Dennis Allen, I mean, this is- Get out of my life. Not great. Get out of my life. Kevin Stefansky said, Deshawn Watson had general arm soreness. This was yesterday. So he was held out of team drills, has not made a decision on whether Watson will play in the preseason finale. Monitor this, but if he plays in that preseason finale, you should be encouraged.
And then-We are two weeks away. The NFL starts two weeks from today. The whole thing about- I was hoping to avoid digging in here. Yeah, I know. I know you were because you've talked up the Browns and the offense and some of their weapons. But this is a real problem. Deshaun Watson has been injured this whole offseason. His problem last year was injury. He didn't look good when he was on his shoulder.
Deshaun Watson, I don't think you understand this. He can be inaccurate no matter how much practice time he gets.
That is true. He can be. But this is not good. I mean, you had a report like this on Anthony Richardson a month or two ago, which was the expected timeline, but we're right here.
I'm not overplaying it. I'm sorry. General arm soreness. I don't want to over- I know you want Jameis.
I know you want to... Oh, man, I would love to have James out there just for fun. It's one of those things where last year, Deshaun Watson, I didn't think, looked good. When he was on... Even though for fantasy, he had some games- Looked like he had a sore arm.
I don't think anybody thought he looked good. I agree with that.
If he's still dealing with- We're waiting for him to look good. Arm problems in his throwing arm is very difficult for me to believe he's going to be back to the guy he was many, many, many years ago.
The only thing that can make that contract worse is him never playing on it.
Yeah. All right. He's going to do his best.
I didn't know this was happening when I brought Deontha Foreman up on yesterday's show in Hungary for More. But Pierre Strong Jr, the Browns running back who was running ahead of him.
He was the backup.
Suffered an apparent upper body injury at practice on Wednesday. He was placed into an ambulance.
We don't have any more information as of this recording. There you go. It's just wild timing. Remember, Deontha Foreman, he had his own ambulance ride just a couple of weeks ago. So hopefully Pierre is okay, but it's a situation to monitor because Andy's hungry for more is correct of if it's Jerome Ford and Deontae Foreman, both of them should have some value.
That is today's news and notes presented, as always, by USAA Insurance. Learn more at usaa. Com/insurance. We'll take a quick break and come back with the debut of a brand new segment. All right, it is time to jump in.
This is what's funny over this.
This segment. I'm looking forward to it. I have no I have no idea how this is going to go.
Yeah, I don't know how brutal or intellectually honest you guys are going to be.
Oh, well, you're going to find out.
Take Swap.
All right, we're going to start with Jason and myself. We are swapping takes written for one another.
All right.
Jason, are you going to read first? I don't know what the strategy is. I'll- Better to read first or second?
I'll go first since it's in my hand. I have the script from Mr. Hollowway.
Yeah, let's just hear what you've been thinking about lately.
Okay. Hey, everyone. Big Jimmy here with a big time breakdown. A long time coming. It's time I came clean. I've put up a front for far too many years. It's time for the truth. If there's one thing I love about fantasy football, it has to be the way we score quarterback fantasy points, a Especially their rushing yards. Rushing quarterbacks are a true advantage in the NFL field, so why wouldn't they be in fantasy? I'm done kicking against this entirely fair and upstanding scoring setting, and finally coming out in favor of what we all know, a rushing quarterback is more valuable in real life, so they should be in fantasy. Jalen Hertz, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Josh Allen, these guys were NFL MVP caliber players, so of course, they should be our fantasy MVPs. Fantasy quarterback scoring is as perfect as my all-black wardrobe. Nothing tends to change. It's about time we started embracing the truth instead of complaining about it like big fat babies. Russian quarterbacks are here to stay. And so this is the very final opinion on the matter, not to be nullified by any future comments on this topic.
Whoa. Wow.
Whoa. I'm a A little surprised. I'm a lot surprised, Jason.
Yeah, I mean, this is- It's a big about face.
You know what I mean?
It is a very big about face. It's what, apparently, inside I've always believed.
Look at the rushing shutdown scored inside the five by quarterbacks last year. Jalen Hertz, 13. Josh Allen, eight of them. Very impressive performances. I mean, these guys, more and more.
I agree. I mean, a shutdown is worth a countdown, just like is in all of the league I play. Six points. Six points rushing, six points passing. You're right, Andy. We are right together. Yeah, we're very-I tend to forget about that.
When I get mad about the quarterback of 10 rushing yards as a point or 20/25 passing yards as a point, I don't even factor it. My anger is not influenced by... No, there's league out there where a quarterback throws a countdown, it's four points, so they run it in, and it's six. That's so dumb. It's the same exact countdown.
Here's a question for you.
It's perfect because it lets... I mean, obviously, if you look at the greatest of the greats, you're going to... I mean, who's the greatest quarterback playing right now? It's that listing that I just said. It's not Mahomes. It's Cam Newton.
Hey, by the way, do you think teams will adjust to the quarterback sneak situation? Because we've seen so many scoring on that play, that design play. That has become more prolific. There were 18 different quarterbacks that had more than two rushing touch downs inside the five. That was an NFL record. That's 18 quarterbacks that got more than two on sneaks. We talk about the push-push, Kelsey leaving. What happens when there's an adjustment to that? I mean, are you looking at- It's not a sneak anymore.
If you can see it coming, it's not really sneaky.
Oh, I see what you're saying. It's now just a quarterback touch down.
It's just a quarterback run.
Yeah, I mean, they're going to try to stop it, of course, but they've been trying to stop Jalen Hertz for two years, and they haven't been able to. All right, Andy, what do you need to get off your check?
Yeah, I've actually been thinking about something lately, and fortunately, Jason wrote it down for me. Here we go. I have not read this. Have you ever had those great moments of clarity when you notice something about yourself that you need to change? I think I'm having one right now.
Hey, hey, hey, hey. Stay on script.
Thank you, Mike.
And then you never ever, ever change a thing? Well, that's what I, Andy Holloway, like to do.
Really?
Years ago- What? What is happening? That's how I talk. Years ago, I talked about how I don't give enough credit to valuable wide receiver twos on their team. But the cool thing is, I just keep making the same mistake.
Oh, man. That is cool.
Year after year after year. Always the wrong decision. But now, thanks to my incredible incredibly handsome and super funny friend in a black shirt, I'm going to write that wrong.
Good for you, brother.
T. Higgins is a very talented wide receiver. I just haven't given him enough credit because he's a wide receiver, too. Last season, he was a second-round draft pick. And what has changed in his situation to make him drop so far in my rankings, other than getting rid of Tyler Boyd and his 100 targets? Yes, last year, he was injured, and Joe Burrow was injured. It was a bad, lost year for the bangles. But Tee Higgins is really good.
Oh, it's good to hear you say that, finally, Andy.
Joe Burrow is really good, and this offense is really good. And wide receiver twos for good offenses tend to crush in fantasy football. And I am finally going to realize my mistake and become a man, grow some hair on my chest.
Oh, yeah.
And draft T. Higgins everywhere.
Wow, I am. Wow, everywhere?
Everywhere.
That's your guy now.
And that's my opinion on the matter?
I'm happy to hear you say that since it felt like you have been off of T. Higgins with dumb, dumb opinion.
Basically, I admitted my mistake years ago, but then made no changes, and now it's time for me to not just admit it, right?
You got through the first step of the problem.
Yeah, admit you have a problem.
Yeah, but there's a step, too, that you need to move on to.
Which I believe is, fix it.
So Fifth-round pick right now, Tee Higgins.
Wide receiver, 27.
You're pulling the trigger then, both of you.
In ADP, I am. Looking, Joe Burrows, two healthy seasons. He was top 15 in points per game in 2021. Wide receiver, 14 points per game, 13. In 2022, he was wide receiver 13 in points per game. The Cincinnati offense, since they have figured it out, which was a few years ago, they have been just... They let it rip. They let Joe Burrow be the for this team, but we don't have to get mad at their coaching staff for repeatedly running like cowards.
It's just a good thing that despite the fact I'm not sure why, my opinion has finally changed on this.
Yeah, it is. I think the foot plan is going to appreciate it because he's a better wide receiver than you give him in the past credit for.
Okay. Well, it's time for Mike and Jason to swap takes. All right.
I've already read one, so Mike, I'm going to give you yours first.
Okay.
All right. This is...
I'm excited. This is a cathartic today.
Yeah, I mean, sometimes we got to get- Lord, this is long. We got to get stuff off our chest. All right. What do you have to get off your chest, Mike?
I love stats. I love a good behind-the-scenes metric. Some juicy numbers. That's going to help me know if someone is good or not.
Yeah, you do.
All right, Mike, keep going.
But sometimes I will finally admit I get too caught up in the advanced metrics and can't see my nose from my face.
What? Your nose from your face.
I just coined that phrase. It's going to be famous someday. You heard it here first. I can't see my nose from my face. It's so stupid. Anyway, I had a revelation. Joe Mixon, the player I have always thought was inefficient and not actually good, and just yesterday, I said would be a bust, is well good at football. Really? Joe Mixon is a really good running back. I know it mind, sound crazy. I got to read it. Me saying that the Running Back 5 last year is good, but he is. How good did you know that Joe Mixon is the only running back who's been an RBI each of the last three years? That's right. The only one. Not Christian McCaffrey, not Derrick Henry, nor any other RBI in the NFL. Only my dude, Joe Mixon. Yeah. Now he's the bell cow back for a top 10 offense again after getting a new bag of money, new big bag of money. What was I thinking? Of course, Joe Mixon is going to be very good for fantasy this year because Joe Mixon is very Good at football, according to me, Mike Wright. Wow.
That's a big change.
Yeah, that's a rapid change. The last 24 hours.
Yeah, he just had a bust episode yesterday.
Yeah. Well, look, sometimes it takes us saying something wrong to have to correct it. And I think yesterday's bust take, I'm proud of you for seeing it so quickly.
Let's put the ADP to the test for Joe Mixon. James Cooke, my guy, Joe Mixon, I I think both of you are on the Cooke side of that one? Yes.
Yes, I am.
I mean, no.
What about Alvin Kamara, who I feel like nobody wants to draft, but everybody knows will be better than people expect? Or Joe Mixon, Mike? Because that one's one where you're getting… You're dirty on both of them. Yeah. You can't keep getting away with this on both of them.
Yeah. Between the two of them, I would take James Cook. I want I'm going to chase some youth upside here over Kamara.
Well, I think it was Joe Mixon or Kamara.
No, no, no. Sorry. Mixon or Kamara. Oh, well, that's not even a question.
Oh, it's Kamara? No, Joe Mixon, very good at football.
Oh, I see.
But genuinely taking it away.
No, I will take out with Kamara.
But I'm curious for Rashaad White, because Rashaad White is in his own right.
Stop doing this to me.
He is a can't keep getting away with an inefficient player. He's not on his good in office, and he's being drafted ahead of Joe Mixon.
I have Rashaad White-Yeah, where are you with Rashaad White?
He's impossible. He is 100% impossible because it's now been multiple years of him showing the team he can be a Belcow running back, and I think he's just going to do that same thing. He 100% can. But I have some fears that they finally have a player on the team in Bucky Irving who can come in and do the superpower that Rashaud White has, which is pass catching. Rashaud White is inefficient on the ground, but he's a good pass catching running back. He can make things happen in that part of the game. I think that if Bucky Irving gets started to work into that part of the game, that's a huge, huge downgrade for Rashaad White.
The part about Bucky Irving can do that, but literally, Rashaad White is the best at it. And that's what kills me about it. When I think of what makes a running back special in the passing game, I am drawn to the fact that he caught 91 % of his targets. That number is insane.
That is- Sounds truly insane.
Truly It's repeatable.
Well, he was 86 % the year before.
Yeah, I mean- That's a great number, but that's- Eighty-six % is very good. But I mean, 64 of 70 targets, and then 86 % the year before. What you're doing is like, why? If you're a professional football team, you don't change that part of it. That's just my opinion on the Bucky Irving thing. You don't change the best in the league.
Very good at football, Joe Mixon has caught more than 86% of receptions in a season two times in his career.
That's pretty good. He is very good at football. I agree.
But I'm saying that Rashaad White, he might be that good at that part of the game.
Yeah, that's why I don't... Depth is important. Chase Edmonds didn't get it done. Bucky Irving can fit a role, and I just think Rashaad White does the same stuff.
But the concern is maybe you need to get Rashaad White some more rest. So maybe he keeps doing the pass catching, and they start working more guys in on the ground. I don't know. He's a very difficult running back because so much of it was just volume. He's not like a first-round running back that you're locked in, and I know he's going to get Mike, do you feel as though Jason may have something to get off of his chest at this point? It looks like it from what I can see.
Okay, well, let's explore one of my best takes here.
Make sure I gave you the right one. Yeah, we're good.
All right, listen up. It's way too early to give up on Austin Echler. He was a top eight or better running back in five of 14 games. He saw over 18 opportunities per game, including over five targets per week, scoring 11.4 points per game. That's a better mark than Swift, Najee, Warren, Givante. I really, really enjoyed having him on my team last year and was so thrilled, Andy didn't accept my trade for him. If he's got anything left in the tank, Cliff Kingsbury, offensive mastermind, will He'll be the one to get the most out of him. It's like I've always said, I want old veteran runningbacks coming off their most inefficient season and partnered with rookie mobile quarterbacks. If that's not a recipe for success, I don't know what is. Wow.
I thought you had been out after last year's experience. I didn't know you were like... The burns. What was the first line you just...
The first line is, It's way too early to give up on Austin And that is what my therapist has taught me, is that the scars and the burns from last season-Yeah, let it go. They're in the past. Wow. And you want to have a split backfield committee for a rookie quarterback for an aged veteran. Yeah.
And when you think about it, only 61% of his rushing attempts gained three or fewer yards.
That is, when I think of it, what I see.
Hold on. You would word it only- 31% of his carries went for- 39.
Oh, 39, yes.
Based on math.
Austin Echler has been talked about very little on this show over the offseason, and yet he's being drafted as the running back 32, the back of the eighth round. So this isn't a nobody in the draft right now. No. People are going after Austin Echler. Jason is in. Andy, where have you gotten to with Austin Echler?
Well, I think my value pick was Brian Robinson, if that tells you anything. I look at Echler like a re-roll of Antonio Gibson from last year, which is somewhat irrelevant. I do enjoy. Have you seen this quote from Cliff Kingsbury?
Yes, I have. I couldn't figure out- Do you want me to read the whole thing?
Or just maybe I'll get to the part that says, I didn't study him much in free agency. That's the part.
I didn't think he'd be You're leaving out the best part, Andy. Okay, go ahead. When offensive mastermind Cliff Kingsbury said, I'm watching him like, This guy's tremendous. So I'm not sure what it was last year, but he hasn't lost his step. He's as quick and as fast and as strong as I've seen him.
This is a real quote. This was not a take swap with Cliff.
No, that is a real quote. He does continue on to say, I didn't study him much in free agency.
Here's the thing about past catchingbacks, I will say, is that they don't need much to be relevant for fantasy. So when you are looking at him, do I want to take him in the eighth round? I probably will not do that. But could he be a usable flex on certain weeks or in PPR weeks? Absolutely.
In his defense, Echler, on the ground, it was terrible. That's where it was 179 attempts, three and a half yards per carry. That is terrible. He was still eight and a half yards per catch, though, on 74 targets. Got 51 of them. So a low catch percentage for Austin Echler, and you didn't get those sweet, juicy receiving touch downs like you're used to getting, but he was still making big plays.
If he was the free agent pickup that Washington brought in to be their guy because they didn't have anybody else, we would be talking about Echler completely differently. It's the fact of what Jason illustrated. Now, I'm surprised he's not doubting it, but a mobile rookie quarterback with a committee on a team that has got a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator a tough division. All those things combined means that predictability. Look, if we came out and Austin Eckler's surprise with six catches in week one and a shutdown, and he's a free agent pickup, that's not impossible, especially first half of the year. He's dealt with injuries. He played through injuries, we hope, last year, because if he didn't play through injury, he has lost it. We watched him go down the sideline like a fullback. So he better have been playing through injuries for us to have any hope. All right, we're going to take a quick break and then come back with some thoughts from Mike and myself. All right, Mike, let's swap these. You can give me yours.
All right, I'll take this. I will read first.
All right. Yeah. Let's see what you're thinking these days.
As a man known for both tradition and small talk, it's about time we had a little heart to heart about something near and dear to That is, of course, testosterone. It's about time we talked about it. The big T, that grid iron tradition of high T football is a man who likes doing things the way they've always been done, playing the game, the way it was meant to be played. It's time we got back to the roots of the game. Where are my leather heads at?
Oh, man, you shot it out?
Last year, the seven teams that ran the ball the least didn't make the... Last year, the seven teams that ran the ball the least didn't make the play, while seven of the top nine teams who ran it the most made the play.
That's a great find.
Volume, grit, toughness, the fire in your belly, the pigskin in your paws, running that thing left and right and center until the cows come home. Do it like they've always done. Hand that rock off and let them churn out those first downs like the forward pass doesn't exist. That's the way I like it, and you should, too. High T football, it's the way to go, and it might just be the way to go in fantasy football.
I I like that you still call it the forward pass.
Yeah. Yes. Well, it's this new fangleds invention.
Where my leather heads at. Well, I mean, Mike, tradition is something that we know about you.
Oh, yeah. Doing things just because that's how we've done them, that's what I say is the best medicine. And those stats that still get you... I mean, they're great stats, of course, but those stats of, well, this team that won, they ran the ball 30 something times.
All you got to do is if you run the ball 35 plus times, you win 90% of the games. That's how statistics work, Mike.
I mean, that is correlation causation at its root.
Yeah, I mean, you and Duns Mahoney. The interaction between the running game, fantasy football, and the NFL has always been very interesting to me because we've had a lot of seasons where the most effective of running teams, the ones that do commit to it the most, it's chicken or egg to a degree. You get up, you run the ball more.
You're up, you run.
But for a ton of years, I mean, New Orleans, Baltimore, San Francisco last year, and like I said, seven... Or like you said. Like you said, seven of the top nine teams, it was the maximum rushing volume. It has been a recipe for success at the NFL level. But at the same time, we look at efficiency, we look at passing around the goal line, we like it.
Neutral game script.
Correct. But I didn't realize you were such a traditional fan of me.
Does this mean are you thinking about going running back, running back, running back, running back to start your draft?
That's what we're wondering.
For running backs?
People were just asking us about zero Rb, and I say zero anything but Rb. Yeah. Wow.
Well, strong point. Is this my turn? It is. Oh, this is a nice big font. I like this. Jaden Reed. Oh, gosh. I wanted to say this to everybody. Jaden Reed was a product of opportunity. To be last year.
Wow. Could have been.
Tell us why. Well, he's a fine-ish player. His numbers are unsustainable. It's tough to admit. He topped four receptions in only four games. He massively overproduced in the Touchdown Department. And Reid scored a countdown on 13% of his touches, a score every seven and a half touches. Over the last decade, we've seen 16 wide receivers have 10 plus touch downs on 75 or fewer touches, like Reid. The average drop in touch downs next year, 5.4..
That's a lot.
When both Reid and Chr. Watson were playing together, nine games in total. Reid only managed them easily. Two quality fantasy games. And look at those playoffs. The biggest stage, the most important games of the season, Reid? A combined four receptions for 35 yards over two games. He's a part-time mediocre player surrounded by very talented players.
Okay.
That's a scathing review.
If I hadn't changed my opinion to this exact thing right here, I would be upset.
Yeah, but now you know. You know what I mean? Yeah, but mediocrity, or Jaden Reid I'll just put it that way, is he's in a crowded backfield of other- You heard me.quality wide receiver.
Yeah, and the important thing is that some of you out there would be blaming all of the injuries struggles over this backstretch of the season. But I've come to realize that those are irrelevant. He just sucks.
No, he's fine-ish, you said.
Yeah, he's fine-ish.
You were mean to him.
No, I'm sorry. I meant a part-time mediocre player. That's better said. Surrounded by very talented full-time players. And of course, by full-time players, I do mean Chr. Watson.
Yes. He was always available and on the field.
I don't know what I think about my own thoughts.
Well, some of what you brought up is fascinating.
It sounds like some things you've brought up before.
The truth is that he did overproduce in touch downs. It's not a sustainable pace for just about anyone.
For the volume that he got.
To be fair, to my own thoughts, John Dotson comes to mind. If you wanted to find the negative case for the Reid rookie season, it would be Dotson. Dotson overproduced. Touchdown-wise, was efficient, flash as a rookie, believed in the talent, didn't produce as a sophomore. One of the reasons I didn't make Jaden Reid my my guy is because I knew later on, I would write this scathing opinion, where all of my scouting and opinions on him were changed suddenly in the midst of an episode called Take Swap.
Dontavian Wix is obviously better, right?
I might think that at this point.
He He's not mediocre.
No. Yeah, I guess I could be wrong, and he might end up being amazing, and that talent shines through this year, but we'll find out. Let's jump into some mailbag.
Mailbag. How did we not mailbag swap? Oh, yeah.
Well, I mean...
Like make the deucers do it?
It doesn't take long to get the Falcon in there.
Oh, Falcon. Mailbag. Mailbag. Yes. Oh, his- Don't go back. Go back. Oh, yes. Yes. Oh, his face. His face, when it wasn't on camera, he was vigorously shaking his head. No, no, no, no, no, I mean, Jason's right.
He was. Vigorously shaking his head, no.
I've never seen someone sprint without moving before, but that's what he was doing. He was just trying to run out of this room to take a Falcon.
That was great. Thank you, Falcon. You get mad props on that. If you have a question for the show, you can go to the website, thefantasyfootballers. Com, and click the Submit a Question button. Yeah, Falcon said he blacked out. What just happened? You can dial the voicemail, Hotline 30246. Com. For TFFB, and here we go. By the way, what was your thought on our first take swap episode? Did you enjoy yourself?
Yeah. There's some fun things to be had. Hopefully, the audience can understand the difference and what we actually believe. Also, hopefully, maybe a thing or two there brought to light a different shade of our opinion that maybe is a little bit more reasonable in some of them.
Well, probably not for Mike. He does what he's always done. He does what they always do. Yeah, high T. Why are you such a big fan of TD only Leagues?
Because that's the only time that they score in the NFL.
Okay, that's a good point. Perfect. That is the right answer. All right, our first question comes in from Instagram. Josh writes in, says, What is your view on Kirk Cousins? I think he's a quarterback.
Yeah. He I don't know if you guys saw the playlist. Oh, yeah. There was a playlist where Kirk Cousins, it was his birthday, he got to put it out there. And you know what? It was a good playlist. I had no problems with it. But it It's hard to get overly excited about Kirek Cousins because we just don't know if he's going to be truly healthy.
Let me bring a point up if this is okay, just to answer the question for us. Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers are both coming off of devastating injuries.
Different legs, same injury.
Both have, I'm going to just say changed teams. Rodgers got to play zero, basically zero skills. So new offense, new situation. Both have two of the best running backs in the game of football, Béjan Robinson and Maurice Hall, and both have had prolific fantasy seasons, Rodgers more than Cousins. But both have done it in the past. Both have same year up and coming superstar wide receiver, Drake London and Garrett Wilson. We do not bring up, very often or haven't, I haven't heard it, the fact that the Jets offense could be prolific, the Jets offense could be incredible, despite the fact that they have all of those same attributes that Kirk Cousin says, right? But it does get brought up around Atlanta, the thought that Atlanta could just turn everything around. They have a worse defense. Maybe that means you think they'll throw the ball more. But the situations are wildly parallel, from running back to wide receiver to injury to how you've established. I just feel like nobody... Has anybody whispered Aaron Rodgers' name in a fantasy conversation?
No.
When he has all those same things.
There's a lot of similarities, but it was just the upside of the Falcon's skill position players. I just talked about Darnell Mooney. I think that he is still a quality wide receiver. It's hopes and dreams. I get it. But Kyle Pitz still deserves hopes and dreams because of the talent. At least we saw his rookie season. Over a thousand yards as a rookie tight-end, It was nearly impossible to do, but he managed to do it where the Jets, not naming Brees Hall, who's the second best pass catcher for the New York Jets?
Probably Gibson until Mike Williams comes back, I'm guessing.
Yeah. I'm not really factoring Mike Williams into the offense.
It's funny. Williams and Mooney feel similar.
But one of them is not recovering from an ACL. Correct. That's what I'm saying. Not this year. I'm Got it. That's where I'm saying I'm not factoring Williams in as much as Mooney.
They are back to back in draft.
I would add to that that you've got an age gap here, right? True. 36 years old versus 40 years old. So you're 40 years old coming off of an Achilles his injury. And when he was 38 years old, when Aaron Rodgers was not injured, he wasn't that great his last season in Green Bay. I know he lost Avante Adams, but 3,600 yards, 26 passing touch downs, which is very not Aaron Rodgers-like. So I think it's like, well, he's got to recover at age 40 and get back to prior to what he was when he was healthy. That just seems like a tall task, especially for a team that is so darn good on defense that you don't have to push the ball downfield enough for fantasy purposes to have, even if they are one of the best teams in the league, and they can Rodgers has never been a yard guy, though. No. No, but he's been a countdown guy. He's been a countdown guy. And that's what I'm saying. When he was 38, he threw 26 passing touch down.
His career average per year, points per game for Rodgers is 20 and a half. Cousin's career, points per game is 16.2. Yeah.
And in the final year of Aaron Rodgers healthy, it was 14.1. Right.
That's why I- You've given a lot of weight to that season for now two years because we didn't get to see Rodgers on the field last year.
Yeah.
It's just he's old.
Isn't that going to be fun, though?
Oh, I can't wait. We missed it last time. Genuine. I mean, I'm always rooting for all these quarterbacks to do well. But to get back to the original question of Kirk Cousins, if he's healthy, he should be pretty darn good. I mean, This is the Ram system that fits his play style? He's not going to be mobile, so he's going to be one of those guys that's a low-end quarterback one or just a good super flex QB Two type.
Coming from the Ram system, there's a guy in the Ram system right now named Matthew Stafford that has two prolific pass catchers, Dan McVay already. I look at Cousins in that lens. I Cousins and Stafford would be the more... Occasional weekly upside, but probably not every week and probably not top 12 guys.
Yeah, that's where I said I look at Stafford the same way. He's a low-end quarterback one or Probably a quarterback two in super flex leads that you're happy to have.
Yeah, that's right. Instagram question from Mike562. Do you believe that George Pickens can be a league winner?
No, but I'm Probably alone there.
No. League Winner is... To actually receive the moniker of League Winner, he would have to finish top five. Now, can he be top five? He's being drafted as the wide receiver 29 in the back of the fifth right now. The Steelers, as of this recording, a little bit early, the Steelers and the Patriots are the only team to not name a starting quarterback. Now, because Bo Nicks was named the starter for the Denver Broncos.
Did you guys- Which we should have talked about.
Yeah. Well, I'm mentioning it right now. The Steelers' quarterback situation, that's a little strange to me. Russ has missed a bunch of time. With injury, and everything out of Steeler's camp has been, No, Russ is going to be the guy. But then you get or getting the whispers of, Well, the quarterback competition is actually a little closer than most people would think. Do you guys have a read on that? Because that affects the outcome of George Pickens in a big way as well.
I saw the report that it was like, they're the only two teams that haven't declared a starter. Is that really true? Because I feel like Tomlin from day one has said, quarterback one is- No, it is true. So he has come out and said that Russ is no longer the starter? I haven't seen that actually happen.
They never named Russ as a starter.
They named him as the- As the quarterback one. That was the phrase he always used. He's the quarterback one. I don't know what that means, if not starter.
Means you're first up in practice.
Okay.
I think it's a bad sign that he hasn't come out and declared that and reinforced it. I do. That's where I was bringing it up for. I absolutely do. I think most teams have done it. They haven't done it. Frankly, both guys look like they're not very good.
Well, they are the reason why I say no. It's not Pickens. If tomorrow, CeeD Lam's contract negotiations go sideways and there's a Pickens for CD trade, yeah, Pickens could be a league winner playing with Dak as the wide receiver one there. But I don't see a league winner for whoever is the wide receiver one between Russ and Fields.
It does seem challenging. I honestly don't even know who I'd prefer. Russ provided nothing to Denver's past catchers, and at least Fields gave you DJ More's big season. But Fields is a problem behind center, too.
So I still am blown away that Courtland Sutton had 10 receiving touch downs from Russell Wilson. Ten double-digit touch downs, and he was the wide receiver 36.
Yeah, it seems impossible.
It does.
All right. This is a website question from Caroline in Huntington Beach. Hey, Ballers, I play in a half PPR league that also awards half a point for a first down. Nice. How do I take that into account when drafting my positional players? Should I be looking at full PPR rankings? Thank you. It's a great question. This is an interesting topic. There are those out there that would like to push us towards a point per first down format versus point per reception, because a screen pass for zero yards is not as valuable as a pass for a first down.
This is interesting of the half for the catch and another half. You complete the PPR if you actually get a first down.
I'm I'm totally fine with that.
Yeah, I think it's cool. I mean, as far as what rankings to look at, I think looking at PPR rankings are fine for this. But what you want to do is go just Google first downs last year and see which types of players and which players led the league in first downs and rank them and just sort them mentally a little bit within themselves. If they're a behind the line of scrimmage type of screen game guy, that's not going to be the sticks mover.
I'll give you some data if we want it. Top five receiving first down leaders, so receptions that were for first downs.
I bet it's all the high PPR guys.
Tyree Kill.
Yeah.
Ceed. Check. Amun Ra, Ajay Brown, Puukunakuwa. Those are the top five.
No one is surprising.
Those are not.
How far does the list go down that you're looking at?
As far as we want.
Is there any- Who's 356? Jason.
Okay.
At what point in the order is there a name where you go, Oh.
Godwin with 53, which was right at the same level as Nico Collins is interesting. That makes sense. Thielen at 56 is interesting.
Somehow Dix- They had 56 first downs?
Dealing it.
The Panthers?
Oh, the team. Amazing. Maybe interesting, the Hawkinson had 48. Yeah, that's Which was the same amount as Laporta despite missing time.
Yeah, Hawkinson was having a good year.
I'm not seeing anything. I mean, 46 for Jacobi Myers, who is more than Drake Lennon and Rashi Rice, George Kittle. So that's interesting.
Yeah, it's more of the PPR guys at the top are going to be the first down guys because they're catching a bunch of passes. And then the players who, like Nico, it might be a little bit lower because they're big play guys.
Not surprising. Rushing first down-wise, McCaffee lapped the field.
Yeah.
So McCafree, and this includes quarterbacks, any rushing first down. Mccafree had 83 rushing first downs. The next closest was 68. And this is a wild one. The fifth-highest rushing in the NFL, quarterbacks included, first downs, Chuba Hubbard.
Wait, Carolina had that many first downs?
That one's wild, right? Yeah, it is. More than Moster, more than Josh Allen, more than Montgomery. That's a high number.
It is. I mean, touch downs are essentially counted as a first down, so I figured Moster had 20 some of those.
I mean, that is the name that jumps out at the top 20 at the rushing for rushes.
Interesting.
All right, we are going to wrap things up today. We got a mock draft episode tomorrow. We've got our live show on Saturday evening. A few straggling seats remain. You can go to ballerslive. Com if you want to come see us live in Los Angeles on Saturday. We would love to see you. The place is going to be packed. We've got tons of special stuff in store. We're giving away literally 20 autographed jerseys that we're going to be throwing out into the crowd in the mezzanine.
Yeah, shout out to Pristine Auction for providing all those. Shout out to Sleeper for presenting the show.
Absolutely. And we're also raising money for fantasy Cares with the live show as as well. So it's going to be just a really good time to connect before the season and during draft season. So ballerslive. Com for tickets. Get into the Megalibull at meglibull. Com, and we will be back with yet another episode tomorrow. But we will not be doing pick swap during the mock draft, just so you know. Okay.
Goodbye.
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