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Welcome to the Fantasy Football podcast with your host, Andy Holloway and Jason Moore and Mike. Right. Welcome in. Oh, yes. Tuesday, August 25th, the fantasy football is back with you only Mike and Jason, I. Well, Jason and myself, we didn't we didn't know that intro was coming. That was that was all Mike and. Someone else, one of our esteemed producers. That was, you know. Something special. You know, it, someone's sultry, you can get the ultimate draft carried ultimate gay.com, get ready to go for 20, 20.
So excited about the show today, we have breakouts. We're going to be working through some feelings. At the top part of the show, it's always a good thing to do. Yeah, and we appreciate all the new listeners that are subscribing, tuning in, getting ready for the twenty twenty season. Thank you for the reviews on Apple podcast or wherever you listen. I feel like now I'm in just a oh, I'm gonna call them baby. Yeah, let's get into that quick question.
That's sort of like Mitch Hedberg.
Let's talk about let's talk about some Kenny G.
It just waffles and pancakes with syrup traps. All right. Players to forgive him. Who is the player that you're willing to forgive from last season?
So every season there's a lot of hype, there's a lot of excitement, there's a lot of expectation. And sometimes players come out and they have a good year, not a great year. They don't live up to the hype, so to speak, and they need to be forgiven. Other players get hurt. Other players, you know, it's they call them post hype sleepers for a reason. Sometimes you're a year off on a player. But I want to know, gentlemen.
Who are you forgiving? I'll jump in here, I am forgiving James Connor, running back from the Pittsburgh Steelers. There is this tier of running backs right around there.
That corner is involved with what Todd Gurley, David Johnson, all guys that look, you're going to have to work through your feelings and forgive somebody if you're going to draft them. And for me, it is James Connor, because to me. The only thing stopping James Connor from being a top ten running back is health. Now, the health is a very large question, but those other guys in that tier, there are larger questions that have to be answered.
Along with health, we saw Connor Connor still put up three top 10 weeks in his limited amount of work with terrible quarterback play.
Let's let's also not forget Ben Roethlisberger is back. All reviews for the quarterback at a training camp have been glowing. It's still being reported. Know James Connor is the guy for this team. We'll see if he can play his way into another contract. But for this year, if James Connor is healthy, he's going to be a complete draft steal.
So you're forgiving? I am. Did it take you a long time or was this a quick. Well, optional, so he was my guy for me last year, I was all in on James Connor and that's a deep cut. I mean, it was it was it burnt here. Here's the thing about James Connor, and we've said it on the show in the past. He's not going to finish where he's being drafted right now. He's the kind of player that if he's the guy and he's healthy, he's going to be much higher in Final Fantasy finish for twenty twenty or he's going to be hurt.
They're going to share time. It's going to be multiple running backs. And then he won't be a fourth round pick.
No, no. So interesting minds in that same category, that same range of running backs.
And as David Montgomery, David Montgomery is a player that I think people have a hard time liking after last year, the excitement, the preseason hype, how good a running team Chicago was the year prior to Jordan. Howard, it all fell apart for Matt Nagy. If you remember the press conferences with Matt Nagy, it was like, yeah, I want to run the football. But they were running it like thirty nine percent of the time and trusting Mr.
Bychowski. Sixty one percent of the time it wasn't a good situation, but as a rookie, I mean two hundred and seventy seven opportunities are carries in that audience finished at number twenty five at the position sometimes gets lost in the equation and if he should be the only goal line option for Chicago. So if things improve on offense, he's a very capable pass catcher. I think what he did last year, probably the basement of what you're going to see from David Montgomery.
So I'm going to draft him on the hopes that and his camp reports have been glowing as well. I mean, he he has taken the the health and the fitness to another level, allegedly. If you're new to the show, I always talk about I love when running backs lose weight. I love when wide receivers gain weight. I don't generally like when a running back says no, I'm going to bulk up and put on weight so I can make it through the season.
We've just seen it change the athletic profile for players too many times. It takes away from that player what they they are. But when a running back loses weight, they're in excellent shape. The hard part for forgiving David Montgomery is he was around the whole time like there's you can't point that an excuse really for David Montgomery other than he wasn't that good for for fantasy. Like you said, the opportunities were there. He was there every game. He just had such little fantasy production that it it's it's difficult to to go back.
He's actually for for a player to get over two hundred seventy five carries. This is something that Brett Evans pointed out.
He basically had the lowest finish of any place from Brad.
Well, when he posted to seventy five that number, you generally finish inside that top twenty four.
It's a matter of them getting into the red zone. I mean you have these players on board. This is my fear for any of these bad offensive situations.
You three now, three now three now not no red zone opportunities. No inside the five opportunities, he's a tackle breaker. He was one of the best in football. He just has a mediocre offensive line and a bad quarterback situation. But I love knowing that he's going to get two hundred seventy five to three and an opportunity.
Well, the the good news for David Montgomery, obviously, they bring in a new star player to the offense who's been tearing it up in camp, which should help the offense. Their star has been reportedly Jimmy Graham. So now that they've added Jimmy Graham to the Bears offense all up from his ankle, come in.
Yeah, for me, this this is look, people are wondering, is it is it Philip Rivers? Now get river out of my life. I'm not ready to forgive yet, but Zach Ertz was a player. You're not going to swim. Who last year. I don't know if you guys remember the. No, I'm not swimming in Pee River, Mike. Not again. I don't know if you remember last year, those of us who had Zach Ertz do remember, but he really stunk the first half of last year.
I mean, like really bad six of the first eight weeks, he wasn't in the top twelve as tight end. He was brutal. It's a wasted pick it tight. It was a wasted pick. It was terrible.
And you ever have one of those guys where you've got them for their bad stretch, trade them and then they're great. That's what I experience. And that hurts. Doesn't feel good. You actually did the opposite with Greg Olsen a few years back. You watched him dominate the NFL and then traded for him for that, right?
Yes. So I did the same just in reverse order. But I never forgave Greg Olsen. I am forgiving. So he's on our bathroom wall. He's awesome. Yes, I hold grudges, but was Eckert's I've been rising on him. You know, the hairline fracture for forgotten the nebulous situation of the receiving corps, the questionable health of Alshon Jeffery and age of Deshawn Jackson. In the end, Zach Ertz is just going to be. A really valuable tight end, and the nice thing is he keeps dropping every live draft that I'm doing, I just see Zachares fall to the people don't want him know he's being disrespected.
Yeah, he is. And I like that for my emotions and for more importantly, the value. So I'm back in on Eckert's. And honestly, he's been one of my targets in the last few drafts I've been doing. So let's go.
I think he's also feeling left out from the like bag of cash party that's going on with George Kittle and Travis Kelsi Dallas Goderich came out today talking about how Zachares deserves an extension and he's in his contract year.
I think he's got two years left. Oh, really?
OK, but that didn't stop nobody. You can count. Kelsey had time left. Do you can find us on Twitter at the footballers, the community. Over ten thousand strong join the foot dotcom is your chance to get into the mega ball tournament right now and join the foot dotcom, that's where you can get access to foot clan leagues. The extra weekly episode, tons of sweet perks for our listeners. Supporters edge on the foot dotcom, the websites, the fantasy footballers, dotcom.
Let's talk news.
News& notes from around the league. I have a note in here, Jason Moore, former co-host of the Fantasy Football podcast, was spotted in a body bag Monday after two of his my guys were injured.
He will be missed. A lot of people saying I'm I'm trying to take your Rieper title, which is not one I want.
I'm happy to not have that. But it was not good news.
I spotted in a walking boot Monday, Tyler Lockett exited practice early. Thoughts? Well, I tweeted my thoughts that someone needs to go protect Maki's Brown immediately, who's actually the more injury prone of the three, someone go keep him safe. Well, it's not what you want. Obviously, I want these players to be healthy. It's not what I can predict. You know, that's one of the hardest parts of fantasy is you talk and you do the research and you do all the stuff and injuries.
You know, it's like you said with James Connor last year, you are all in. You didn't get to see it on the field. And both of these guys are presumed to be OK. They should be fine for week one. But I just don't like you know, people are saying, oh, it's it's precautionary, but with Kindred's precautions, weird things where he said that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
Why are all of your players in a walking boot than they.
I mean, that's how I read it. I was like, wait, can you drink? Said, I'm good. Then he posts fingers crossed. Like, what do you make of that, Jason? Do you know what this symbol means? It means, I sure hope what I'm saying is true or or I'm lying or I'm lying.
Look, I hate to say it, but I was a believer that Chase was going to have a considerable role in this offense. Regardless, at this point, he's he should be an imperative for a Kenyan Drake, somebody who's rostering Drake because. Much like the Michael Sanders news, if they have to come out and say he should maybe be ready for San Francisco the first week, what is the chance that Drake gets a full workload? Is there a chance that Sanders in that first week, Drake in that first week, at least just those weeks, doesn't get a full workload?
I mean, how are you not looking at Edmunds the same way you would look at Madison and in Minnesota, he's pretty close for me in terms of priority.
Draft priority, like Chase Edmunds is a great player. We saw what happened when he was the starting running back when David Johnson sort of was playing that one week except to turn to the Chase Edmunds show. So, yeah, St. Edmunds is he is a priority later round running back for me.
Not necessarily that if I draft Dalvin Cook, I am drafting Alexander Madison. I don't have that same conviction of if I drive Drake I have to get Edmans.
But his Madison the only one in that category in general for any of insurance backups. Yeah. I'm not drafting backups because I would prefer to draft your backup.
I want the opportunity as they to stay away from Tyler Lockett exited practice early. Doesn't appear to be anything of grave concern.
Ice up now in speaking of much healthier players, AJ Green resumed running on Monday.
Congratulations. And so just to be clear. AJ Green running, Tyler Lockett not running. I'm going to enjoy this one, sweet, sweet five seconds of time in today's News and notes Deontae Johnson, he's missed the last five days of practice.
Steelers wide receiver. Like Canada, he was the hot, hot breakout candidate over the off season.
Still is. Yeah, no, he still is just saying that this is he has very little to work with Ben Roethlisberger.
So it's worth at least, you know, noting that if he's missing a week here, he didn't really play with Big Ben last season one game, whereas Juju is now going into, you know, the third year with him. You just drafted Juju personally in a home league. Mike, I, I, I really hope to choose the guy. You know, he's one of those, I think, just super talented players. And if Big Ben is back, I, I do believe Juju is going to have the breakout.
The Steelers are wild there. While there's two layers of questions, there's do we get the AB style? Five thousand passing yards, Big Ben offense. That's layer one. And then who's Big Ben's favorite guy? Which should be joujou if they can get some guys down the field, James Washington, take the top off, let Juju work underneath, it's going to be interesting in Pittsburgh.
All right. Tyrell Williams diagnosed with a torn labrum. He says he's going to attempt to play through it. That is not good news. He tried to play through some injury last year, basically went into fantasy irrelevance. They've got Brian Edwards, they've got Henry Rug's, they've got Hunter Renfroe, they've got Darren Waller. Yeah, it is absolutely rookie time for the Las Vegas Raiders being the hugest bump up. Here is Brian Edwards, who has we look for the what's been dubbed the the drumbeat in fantasy football of the you want the drumbeat to be sustained and grow louder over time, over the off season, over training camp and the player who has risen the most like that, that beat is going.
It has been Brian Edwards. This was before Tyrell Williams was had the torn labrum in his shoulder. So now the opportunity is even greater for a player who has been impressing Derek Carr has been gushing about Brian Edwards. He has absolutely moved into that later round. You want to take a rookie wide receiver? It's not generally it's not my favorite draft strategy. I don't like going after these rookies, especially this year is very bizarre. But like Jalen Reagor, Jerry Judy, like Brian Edwards is reaching that category of I'm willing to take my my last position will pick on Brian Edwards, see what happens.
I agree with you that he is the big beneficiary here of Tyrell Williams possibly being injured or hampered or slowed down by the shoulder. The question still remains, are this team if you're taking a rookie wide receiver, have you made the switch from rug's to Brian Edwards? Are you still taking rug's first? Whoof.
Man, I think it's probably I think and last night my answer was, I think it was still drugs. It's still drugs for me. I still Leena's rug's. You got to go with the first round pick, I think Eileen Edwards.
But but I don't blame people for Mandy. We see the flaw.
Well, I just think that I want the volume shot, not the big shot. I think Edwards is just bigger, faster, stronger. Not fat, not fat.
Yeah, it's definitely got bigger, stronger and more of a refined root tree.
I think I would go that direction as a personal preference of what I want on my team. It depends on where you know, where this guy factors into your wide receiver corps. I think I do want to remind people, because we lose this completely with all of this Raiders talk and their opportunity. John Paulson tweeted earlier this month, a reminder, Derek Carr finishes the number fifteen fantasy quarterback. Last year, he lost Antonio Brown right before the season began.
He lost Tyrell Williams during the season. They've added rug's. They've added Edwards. They have you know, you saw it Renfroe did at the end of the year. Williams was really never right last year. I think Carr is interesting. I think he's ahead of Big Ben on my rankings.
Wow. Super flex. I see Derek Carr being relevant as he is. And I've said this before. He's my favorite target for a third quarterback because that's basically in the range where he's being drafted. He is being forgotten and left for dead. But, you know, he's had Michael Crabtree in Amari Cooper on the same team before and and he was an MVP candidate that year. He was an MVP, but not for fantasy.
He's never been a quarterback, one in fairness. Yeah.
He's never finished the year that way. He has. Palsson also pointed out severe HomeAway blitz over the last two years for Derek Carr. Sixteen and half fantasy points at home. And the idea that maybe with the covid situation and the fan situation, he may not be as great on the road. All right. Alex Smith has not shown he's in a position to really challenge for the quarterback job, according to ESPN Junkie. Mm hmm. We'll see. Yeah, we will see.
I think, obviously, this team, if it's close, this team, I imagine, wants to go with the future of the franchise.
Yeah, I would imagine they go with Haskins, give him every chance to to either take the job or lose the job before they make the switch to Alex Smith. Before we get into today's breakout, I want to thank today's sponsor, Hello, Fresh Shellow.
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I'm going to get us into the breakouts, but first I want to just make sure we share this sweet offseason hype. Here's the quote from Stealer's Camp, who practice after practice, the rookie is making non rookie like plays after running non rookie like roots and making non rookie like catches.
I feel like I know who it has to be. But it could be. It could be two. It could be two. Guys, you have to please, please, please. You have to give it to me. Is Chase.
Yes. Oh yeah. Chase Claypoole baby. Let's go. All that another player to the mix I that's good. Big juju back in this flush. Honestly I was, I reached for Chase Claypoole in our rookie draft.
This is why I'm so excited.
I took him knowing in my heart like Chase Claypoole is he. He'll take some time because you had all the the hullabaloo out of Notre Dame, just a giant man off the charts athletically. It had targeted height, weight and speed. Score is absolutely ridiculous for Chase Claypoole, lower production for lower college production because he's from the Notre Dame system. And I thought it would take some time. But you consider Graemes Washington, Washington to be a hit or a miss for the Steelers draft?
I think we don't know yet. He is he's the on song hero right now. It's really important, right, because they go every other on hits with their wide receivers.
Oh, then. So if he's at all. Yes. Totally pulls a super total, but he's a very scientific. All right. Breakout.
Breakouts. Breakouts, bus chase, Claypoole, breakouts, bus values, sleeper's this week on the show, we have done some early breakout pick shows back in June. I am curious if you I'm going to ask real quick before we get into each picked one for today. You can see all of our unique breakouts, adults and Androv Gay.com. In mid-June, Jason Hollywood Brown, I feel like you are still on board, I would agree he would be my pick today, except he's already my guy.
Go back and listen to Thursday's episode.
Mike, you had Daniel Jones. Are you still in for mid-June? Yes, I am. I had with Mr. Daniel Yolked Jones.
Oh, you've yoked yourself together with him for this season. I know that.
RAYMO in on Rahim Mostert. Yeah, I think so. I think less so.
A little bit less. Is it the Jerick McKinnon? Yeah. I don't want more bodies back there getting handed the ball. But Moser's camp reports have compensated for that. McKinnon hype has been one of the best players at Forty Niners. It does seem like he has taken the starting job, which was this very bad trade.
They did, yeah. Yeah, they pay.
But the anomaly of last year where Tevin Coleman was the starter every single week and then the guy who was better was where he most was like the the sixth man in the NBA is better than your. Yeah. But we need him to be the sixth man. Yeah.
They're one of the teams that keep things very close to the vest as well. Like Kyle Shanahan values not putting things out into the media, which is going to be interesting to follow this year. But yeah, I think I'm still in I'm looking up at the if you're watching on YouTube, there's a graphic up here.
Oh, I got to break out. Mike and I are finally behind bars. I always think of the old arcade Atari game breakout. I think of the Kool-Aid man.
I think that one actually makes the most sense. It's like, bam, I'm here now. What's that? Oh, you. Oh, yeah.
Do we have can we get our ball? You're not on the you don't have that intro voice already do. OK, shaking his head. No he can't say no. No he doesn't want to change change our view of.
Oh you all right.
Breakout candidates. I'm not going first. Jason's going first. I'm going first. Oh my. Oh me. Oh my. Well let's start here. Yeah. I love it. Look, it's, it's a little bit deeper. We've been talking about, you know, obviously our my guys tons of huge breakout stars, Terran MacLaurin, Maki's Brown, who we really believe in. But this is someone that I've been rising on. And part of this came I talked yesterday about I went and I watched Drew lock tape to see what I actually believe.
And it convinced me that I think, no offense, is this year's breakout tight end. You have a lot of things in his favor, namely the fact that no offense is a freak of nature athlete. We're not talking, you know, put on your sunglasses.
If you go to the player profile on a website for Noah Fant, he's in the second Barkley range.
I mean, the only he's ahead of George kick off the Chase Claypoole range. Now, Jason, you wish. Look, Noah Fant is not only a superstar athlete, but he was drafted to be an important receiving option. His big problem coming out of college was blocking it. He was you know, that was like a weakness, even though he's a super strong guy. He was known as a pass catching tight end. And, you know, in years past, those guys would drop in the draft, but he was selected number twenty overall and he was pretty good.
He finishes the tight end, sixteen. Now, that didn't that didn't win people. You know, last year he was mostly irrelevant. But that's what rookie tight ends do. We talk about that a lot? Rookie titans pretty much don't ever breakout. Evan Ingram had a good rookie season, you know, pretty much end of list. That was the thirteenth best finish in the last twenty years for a rookie tight end. And it was the sixth best finish for a first rounder.
So he showed enough flashes, big breakaway plays I watched when I was watching Drew Lock. I watch a lot of shout out to Denver, the city, because their coverage of nice weather. No. Well, yes, but no, no. Like they I see why we have how you do in Denver. Broncos fans are always writing in so passioned. They clearly have an extremely passionate fan base because I'm watching.
It's the it's the oxygen. They're not getting enough. They must not be. But it's also the media. The media there was doing such a great job, you could basically watch their training camps. They had Peyton Manning sitting in there for an hour where they're showing the they're broadcasting the camp and the practice. It was really cool. Watch a lot of it. And I saw several plays designed for fans and several plays were when he got the ball, boom, he's gone.
You know, look, Fant had the second highest yards per reception, fourteen point one for a rookie tight end over the last twenty five years so that he had a couple hundred and thirty yard receptions.
And you want to know who had the number one since he was number two can last twenty five years. Mark Andrews.
OK, so there are a lot of things. Hear that say this is a year two leap for a special player who is on an offense that could take a step forward. And the nice thing is because you don't expect him to be higher than third and targets, at least I don't for his team. I think he can get up around 80 or 90 targets in this offense as as a as a ceiling. But he's the type of player who could be extremely efficient.
You know, you saw last year, Jared Cook, just dominate with these 19 yard per receptions, tons of touchdowns. That's what I see could happen for no offense. And if I have to take my shot on him or T.J. Hart considers one of these young titans to break out. I'm calling for the breakout on no offense.
Yeah, he will have to take the step forward in year two. But I'm with you. I mean, you and I have both have him inside of our top ten at the position. I love the breakdown. What would you consider a fantastic finish for him? What's the ceiling?
I think he needs to be top five. I think a breakout has to be top five, that tight end. And I think that'll be tough. It will be tough.
But the volume the volume will be the I could easily see him having eight or more touchdowns, which would put him up in that category.
Oh, my. Oh, my. What about you, Mike? You are you are not calling for the breakout, at least based on the floor. No offense. I can. Can you see the path. Oh one hundred percent. I can see the path. What's wild. And maybe we just have you know, we've blocked it out from previous years. But this year in particular, when you look at the tight ends, what is ranked seventh through twenty, you go, oh yeah, I could see the path for almost every single one of these guys.
Maybe we get like a renaissance period here for the tight ends that we can get at it. Probably not.
Look, I'm trying to bring hope to the people over here, and you're just squashing it down. Well, every year. I mean, I think you're going to have the breakout tight ends and then you're going have the disappointments like OJ Howard last year. That was supposed to be the big breakout. But I you don't have to take no offense with a fifth round pick. I know that's what I love. And that's part of why I picked him.
It's not just because I think he's worthy of a fifth round pick. It's because he has the path to breaking out and he costs you nothing. No offense is not being drafted in Dynasty leagues. He is. But in in a redraft league, no offense is a double digit pick. The major breakout candidates are tied in. What I look for are those big play capabilities because that is a differentiator from being knee just down in distance. First down weapon.
Yeah. Last year he had a seventy five yard reception in one game, a forty eight yard reception, a forty three yard reception. Reminds me of the Mark Andrews, the George Kittles, those type of players. That kind of upside I'm on board for. Would you if you were going to lock somebody into your lineup today like you don't get to change them out.
This is the best ball type of question. Are you locking Jonie or are you locking Fanton?
Jason, I would lock Fanton because while I think Jonah's week to week baseline could be a little bit higher, I don't think John, who has the games that, you know, end up with one hundred and twenty five yards and a touchdown, the way that, no offense can can have a weak winning performance. All right.
My breakout candidate that I'm going to bring forward today, it's Ronald Stinking Jones emphasis on the middle part, Ronald Jones.
I think he has just an incredible opportunity this year.
He's being drafted as the RB.
Twenty nine. Last season he finishes he finishes the RB. Twenty six last season. You know what he did that on? He did it on thirty six percent of his team's snaps. Thirty six percent. Last starter. He and Peyton Barber is gone. Ronald Jones is the goal line back. And I want to draw your attention in particular to what the primary ball carrier does for Tom Brady offenses, the opportunities that they have over the last going back to twenty fourteen, the lead running back for Tom Brady.
I mean, great opportunities inside the red zone team rushing touchdowns inside the five, Jonas Grey 10 carries inside the five yard line, Miami, Sony, Michel, double digit touchdowns all the way back to twenty fourteen for the lead ball carrier for Tom Brady's offense.
Ronald Jones had four of those opportunities last year, four chances inside the five, all four touchdowns for Ronald Jones. You look at what's taken place in camp. Keyshawn Vaughn is getting the Bruce Arians, always treats his rookies this way treatment, he's irrelevant to me. He is when Bruce Arians doesn't mince words. Yeah, what's his role? He's punt returner, maybe, maybe special teams. David Johnson got the same treatment when Chris Johnson was the guy.
And I think the difference in talent between Ronald Jones and the other weapons that they have, I mean, the real McCoy is there. Yeah, but Ronald Jones was a very, very good runner. A high percentage of his runs over 10 yards. He had breakaway capabilities and he has bulked up. He's gotten stronger and looks the part. I know he doesn't catch a lot of passes, but when he catches passes, he does a lot with them.
He was, I think, over nine per catch last year. That's very he was also very reliable in terms of targets to take catches in at the end of game, something Bruce Arians needs.
They get caught twelve or thirteen fourth quarter passes. He's not getting a lot of chances there, but he's so explosive that when he does get them, you know, it's like Derrick Henry a little bit. You know, Henry doesn't get a ton of opportunities in the passing game, but he finds a way to do a lot with them. If Ronald Jones is the guy for Tom Brady, double digit touchdowns is a very reasonable projection for him. And that will outpace RB twenty nine by a lot.
I know that we have a lot of folklore and listeners who are more seasonal. They don't necessarily listen all off season which upgrade upgrade your fantasy list in the off season. But if you're just coming back and you're waiting for me to jump all over Andy and be like, but Ronald Jones sucks, then you have missed what I've been talking about this offseason.
I've gone back, I've watched the tape and I am in I'm in on Ronald Jones at running back twenty nine.
The opportunity versus the cost, the risk versus reward is is outstanding. And I, I am happy to draft Ronald Jones where he's going right now for the chance of the goal line, for the chance of a of a true breakout. It is a nebulous situation there where if they just decide to kind of give him a little bit more of that third down work, he can he can vault up. I don't expect that. But I think he's going to be a great depth piece and very much outdo his fourth highest yards after the catch at the running back position last season in doing doing it on thirty six percent of snaps.
It's kind of ridiculous. So if we expect the offense to move, I think you're going to need him to score touchdowns, but I think he could do it. All right. My breakout pick, I'm going with Yo Riddick. I'm going with the other rookie running back that people are targeting Jonathan Taylor for the Indianapolis Colts. And the reason for this, I have bumped him way up in my rankings. And it's it's go time. It's time to make seventeen up to seventeen for Mike.
It's time to make the stand on who you are in on who you are out on. And I believe in the talent of Jonathan Taylor. Thomas. Yes. What an actor. The Yes. One of the best covers of teen pop of all time. The come for Jonathan Taylor is the Incredible Hulk. If you're going to compare him to anybody else in the universe. The Colts traded up to get him. When a team trades up for a running back, you have a huge hit rate of success on top of he was a second round pick, so they traded up in the second to go and get him.
You had Jim Irsay before the draft. There was reports that Marlon Mack there working on a contract extension. Irsay went out of his way to say, oh, that's not true. And that's a really strange thing for for the owner of a team to come and say, no, we're not actually going to give him an extension. In college, Jonathan Taylor averaged over 2000 rushing yards a year.
And look, look, that's pretty good. Let's talk about the pass catching. Yes. Jonathan Taylor is not the best pass catching running back in this this group of rookie of rookies. But he still had a ten percent target share in the final year and he gets Philip Rivers. Over the last two years, Philip Rivers has sent an average of twenty eight percent of his targets to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. And I want to remind people, Melvin Gordon, let me just ask this is Melvin Gordon, a pass catching running back.
You're saying is he like a prototypical pass getting noticed when you think of Melva Gordon?
I do. I do. Get the ball in the NFL. Yes. Yeah.
He wasn't used like that in college in in Wisconsin. You had so his sophomore year, two receptions, junior one reception. Then he shot up to nineteen his final year. Johnathan Taylor had twenty six last year. Like he like I said, not the most fluid compared to the other guys.
I think he's pretty fluid, but I don't actually worry about his skill set out as a pass catcher at all. I watched all of his training camp tape. I watched all of his route running. I watch all of his catches. He wants to prove that he's that guy. I don't worry. About that one bit. I am so glad you're saying that he was better trained men because he is a good pass catcher like he is what I want.
I think he's more than a capable pass catcher.
Go watch Leonard Fournette, combine drills and then watch Jonathan Taylor's combine drills and you go, oh, one of them has that little hitch, that little securing the ball getting called the Howard. Yes.
Scored the Ronald Jones. Yeah. I mean that's fair. But no Jonathan Taylor looks great when he catches the ball. My question is not whether he can do it.
It's he has to be they have to use him that way.
In my response, that is Philip Rivers will even if Jonathan Taylor doesn't turn into the third down guy, let's say not him, Hines is the guy. Excellent. Third down, back. That's a prototypical pass. Get your money back. Melvin Gordon was getting receptions on first and second down because that's where Philip Rivers go goes with the ball. It's behind the best offensive line in football. Yes, Marlon Mack is there. But reading through the coach speak, how I am interpreting it is they're saying, yeah, Mark Lomax, a starter, but we're going to ride the hot hand there.
They're leaving the crack there for Jonathan Taylor comes out weak. One looks much better than Marlon Mack in the realm of possibilities. And as Jonathan Taylor as the starter from here on out, I am all in on Taylor. I love you.
So I love the point that you made, though, to start your argument, you absolutely have to draw a line in the sand with Jonathan Taylor and the draft capital and what you're willing to do now. You've you reached a different conclusion than the one I reached. But you have to do it now. I am. You made me want to make a formal statement that I am. I'm out on the rookie season of Jonathan Taylor Fair. I everything that I've read around camp, I know it's it's it is what it is.
But Marlon Max had an outstanding camp yesterday. Incredible day. Big runs name Hines been the most active running back in camp. Jonathan Taylor is a specimen, one that I think will be put a little bit on layaway for next season. So I'm officially drawing my line on the not enough work great player can catch the ball, won't get enough this year will disappoint you. Mike is all in. Moved him up to seventeen and I would be far more on the mix side.
I believe in the talent and while I agree with what Andy is saying to start the season, I do think it will be a one, two, three punch with those three backs by the midway point when the playoff push is happening and they need to win games. He is their best player by not a small margin. And this is coming from someone who believed in Marlon Mack as a good running back when they were on the clock with their first pick in the second round, they were hemming and hawing.
They did. They said it was tough between Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, but they looked at their team, right?
I mean, they needed another wide receiver. That wide receiver two has been a catastrophe. What does they have, Marlon Mack? They have nine months. So they went Pittman. And then they're like, yeah, we made a mistake. I still love our teams better with Jonathan Taylor. Traded up just a couple spots later and grabbed him. I'm I'm in here's an interesting parallel.
He's just too good. He's very good. And like I said, Marlon Max had a great camp. How much do you see this situation? Like, I see the Ravens backfield in maybe a similar light. Mark Ingram is going to have one more year there. Jaquet Dobbins waiting in the wings. Here you have Marlon Mack on a contract year. You guys both think they'll make the transition sooner because obviously you're both in on Ingram. You're not in on JK Dobbins in the same fashion.
Right. Even though he's got a massive he's got a quarterback advantage over Jonathan Taylor. He's got a similar offensive line situation.
He's got a lot of talent, but you don't see those situations. He has the quarterback edge in terms of the Ravens are going to score a whole bunch of points. Jonathan Taylor has the quarterback edge of that. His quarterback targets the running back a bunch over under twenty receptions in his rookie season for Jonathan Taylor.
Oh, because I will take the under on that.
And that will not get it done for me.
I have I have the overstored it out so I will take the over. All right. You guys want to want to get into a little bit of mailbag. Sure.
I got to find that you've got to find the bug to find the job while you're looking for my mail bag. Apologies to you when I find it, I find it OK, sure, I see that now I have Jonathan Taylor started out for 25 receptions, so I'm taking the over.
Still disappointing. All right. Well, this is this would be a fun one to watch. I mean, I. He's such a talented player, there will be either great joy or great frustration when it comes to Jonathan Taylor's work, possibly both.
We're doing our funny a little bit of family home league where we're getting people who've never played fantasy before. My wife was on the clock. She's never played. She she she needs a running back. And she says, who's someone that is, like, really talented, but you don't maybe expect them to you don't think they're going to score that much or be involved this year. But they're just really good. And I couldn't come up with anybody for a minute.
And then eventually I was like, oh, wait, Jonathan Taylor's amazing. But I don't expect him to have that role and she draft them, so. All right. Mailbag question. Amen. In Tucson, Arizona, Calvin Ridley or Hollywood Brown for PR dynasty.
OK, that's that's the real I think we'd all take Ridley over Brown in a redraft. Do you take him over Brown in a dynasty?
I do know Calvin Ridley is twenty five. He'll be turning twenty six in December. Man, that is that is a tough three year gap to two and a half. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. What's what's hard is I'm going to start with the redrafts side of it is the probability of being a top 15 wide receiver. I think that the probability still lies with Calvary, despite him being the number two option at best on his team. We've we recently talked about, you know, how it was impossible to see Chris Godwin overtaking Mike Evans.
And honestly, it seems impossible right now to see Calvin Ridley overtaking Julio Jones. And but it's one of those things, and it certainly could it will happen at some point. It will, yes. Julio Jones, at the same thing Julio Jones had to overtake Roddy White, which seemed like an impossibility at one point anyway. So back to my point of the probability that Calvin Ridley is a top fifteen wide receiver is higher than Marquese Brown. But Marquese Brown, his ceiling, if everything goes right, is higher than Calvin Ridley to me.
All right I, I think I see their ceiling. Similarly my son face down the AJ Brown versus Calvin really decision yesterday.
How do you view like if you throw him into the mix, AJ Brown, Hollywood Brown and Calvin Ridley in a dynasty I would go AJ Brown first and then I at this point I would probably still take Calvin Ridley over Marquese Brown. You know my love for Marquese Brown. I would, I would like him but the you know when you're in a dynasty startup draft, it's one of those things where the rookie drafts you could take a little bit more shot, a little bit more risk, but you're going to have this team forever.
And I, I really when I'm in a dynasty startup, I'm going to take the known commodity over the higher upside if there's, you know, a questionable decision here. And I think we've just we've seen more from Calvin Ridley in two years of being able to command more targets. We have yet to see Hollywood necessarily stay on the field. I expect the breakout this year, but I don't want to just have my dynasty startup roster's be projections of the hopes and dreams, hopes and dreams of the brightest future.
Because there aren't always the brightest futures. Here is another spin on the question, though. Calvin Ridley percentage chance that he is better than Julio Jones this season. Nobody would have made that bet necessarily on Godwyn over Evans. What odds do you know who those 31, 32 years old, what odds do you give Calvin to be better fantasy wise? He's found a way in the end zone that that Julio has.
Yeah, I would say fifteen percent. And it and that's exactly how would come. It would be touchdowns. Ridley ends up with ten touchdowns, Julio gets his six and if they are close in receptions, obviously Julio will have the yardage. But you know I think there is fifteen, I put it in about ten.
Julio Jones keeps his six touchdowns real close. Yeah. These are my six and you can have them.
All right, let's go to a voicemail question.
Hey, Paul, this is Paul from Chicago, big fan of the show. My question is, what offense do you think can surprise people in 2020 and actually be very good for fantasy? Thanks, guys. Keep up the great work.
OK, so fantasy surprise for me it is is pretty easy and obvious. I'm going to give the second shout out to the Rockies, but I think Denver could be a fantasy surprise if Courtland, Sutton, Jerry, Judy and no offense all come through. That means that lock came through and that means that there's golden opportunities for Melvin Gordon. I you know, I've been very pessimistic on this offense until recently where I'm starting to see a path to where, yeah, they they if they click, I think it will be a surprise and it will be really good if it clicks.
Mike, do you have a candidate that jumps out to you? I think the Raiders are in that category for sure. I think more viable fantasy options in Las Vegas. And I am going to go with something that would be a complete surprise, but. It could happen, and it's because I still believe in Sam Darnel, so I'm going to bring up the New York Jets. It was a you have to throw last season out. Le'Veon Bell was in my he was my initial injury for forgiveness.
Yeah. The dude had mono. I look, I get it. It's, it's, it's funny, it's funny that he had mono, he had a kissing disease that kapanga in.
Yes, yes, yes, yes. See, that's why it's funny and I hope that Sam can look back now and laugh and be like, yeah, that was unfortunate, but it happens all love and smooches from our side. People can't get backed into high school sometimes for months. And this guy forced his way back onto an NFL field. There's no way that Sam Donald was right and he showed.
Oh, yes. Voice of public opinion. My guess is this, too.
Yes, he has to overcome some things. But if you go back going back into last offseason, despite the hiring of Adam Gase people, there was excitement for what Sam Donald could do in his second year because his rookie year, you saw some things toward the end of the year. This is a growing quarterback. Maybe he really is a franchise.
Might physically have been growing, too, at that age. Yeah, that's that's no joke. So that's that's my the one that would surprise me.
But I, I see what you're not I'm not completely out on Sam Donald yet, but I feel like that the question would have to be which one would shock you, not surprise you, but shock you. I want to throw one other team out because I think this is a great question. There can be a lot of fantasy gold to be found by the entirety of of NFL teams turning around one way or the other. Surprise downsides. But post hype sleeper as a team.
I think last year I called for the collapse, but the Browns this year, I think could be much, much better.
I like Chubb. I like Hunt. I'm curious about Odell Beckham if he's going to be back in Austin. Hooper apparently has been despite my, you know, calling for how much I do not believe in his fantasy value. This year, he's been dominating camps by all beat writers, you know, reporting. So there certainly a post hype sleeper and they don't cost what they did last year.
Yeah, I agree with that. The Jets, the Jets popped into my head, I you know, the contrast that is most frustrating for me and I think we talked about this in the studio a little bit. It's true of every sport is true of every great player. You have one, you know, it's talent opportunity. It's also landing spot for these guys. Some players just end up in incredible situations. Some don't. Josh Allen in Buffalo, you know, drafted in the same draft class, the same Donald Arnold Darnel was drafted ahead of him.
Most people believed in the talent of Sam Donald far above Josh Allen. And, you know, Buffalo has done a better job of taking the player they drafted, equipping him with the kinds of weapons that compliment him. You take the worst deep ball thrower and give him the best deep ball receiver in football. Seems like a nice way to help bridge the gap on a challenge. Yes, they've given John Brown let him run the football. And here I go.
And I look at the Jets and I say, boy, you game Jamison Crowder.
Um, oh, no, Bershad Perriman. And you just haven't quite equipped him. Maybe this offensive line's better. Maybe it's not. It will go a long way to helping Sam Dahle not make mistakes, not see them ghosts.
But you kind of wish that you could almost put all the players into a computer and run a simulation as them as the starter for every football team and see who's the real best player like you can't do that. I love what Donald is better than his situation. And honestly, that's a good way to put it next year.
I think Donald, like I would be willing to target Donald very cheap in a dynasty league because I think when he is freed of the number two, which will be next year, make no mistake, you can't you can never stop a number two from you can always you can always stop for so long time.
It's time. And then it's released and. Oh, my.
I think that that light lightening that load will be good for Sam Donaldson.
Here's here's the truth, though. You can be you can get you can get finished by your circumstances to David Carr is the biggest example in my mind. Recent history. Yeah. You you get pummeled for three straight years. You lose your confidence. You're still young.
You've not had the opportunity. Then it's hard to I mean, anybody think Josh Rosen is going to have a fair shake the rest of his career, new number 10 overall pick.
And he was in a really bad situation in Arizona. And then it's over. I mean, I don't think Sam Donald I mean, they could bring in another coach next year and that could change things. That's what. But this is a make or break year for me. Yeah. And, you know, he could he could go the way of Ryan Tannehill, who took a while to get out of the shadow of Adam case, and then was like, oh, all right.
And then he got the bag.
Yeah. All right. We want to thank Christine auction speaking to know if I signed Broncos mini helmet. No offense, 55 oh oh oh.
So you can check out pristine auction.
Dotcom used the code ballers and get a ten dollar credit. That'll do it for today's episode.
It was a good one. Yes. We will see you tomorrow. Ficklin. Be safe. Good bye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy football podcast, join our fantasy football community on Join the Dotcom and follow us on Twitter at the F.