Transcribe your podcast
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Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

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Welcome in.

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Yeah, baby. Yes.

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I think they forgot the welcome in part.

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That's okay. Welcome in to the 10th anniversary megalashow live in Los Angeles. We rowdy tonight we are and shout out to sleeper for sponsoring this event. Pristine auction. We're so excited. We got a bold predictions episode on the show today, but a whole lot more. We got news to talk about. Some controversial news.

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Ooh.

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So we'll talk about that. We've got.

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We do.

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I am unaware. I am unaware of this news. I guess I missed the news.

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We'll find out. And how many out there with the UDK.

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Yeah, that's our people.

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That's good. That's good. And you can get the UDK ultimatedraftkid.com a reminder, a portion of every UDK goes to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. We've donated in ten years over $250,000 to St. Jude. And that was because of you guys.

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And us winning fantasy leagues.

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Come on, that doesn't hurt.

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Give us some credit.

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And we have something fun. We like to do this for the live shows. We have a quick question today, and we've had a lot of fun with these over the years, but today we're going to compare a player to a television show. And Mike is going to kick it off.

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I am Travis Kelsey. You may have heard of him.

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Wait, people don't like you said, it's rowdy.

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Do you play fantasy football?

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You should be cheering.

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Whoa. Take it easy out there. Take it easy.

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Don't make us send the sharks after you.

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We'll bring them back out. I appreciate the hometown love, but you're telling me you didn't like Travis Kelsey on your team? You're a bunch of big, fat liars. All right.

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Only Antonio Gates.

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All right, here we go. Travis Kelsey. Look, he's given us some of the best fantasy seasons of all time. His peak seasons will go down in history. I'm not sure there's any tight end coming in the future that will ever match what he has done. The run is probably the longest we will ever see. And that's why Travis Kelsey is. It's the Simpsons, baby. Look, and cuz, here's the thing about the Simpsons. We're coming to the end. And that's okay. It's okay. Look, he may not be the difference maker that he once was. See? The Simpsons? Yeah, but it's like when the Simpsons are on, I'm still going to watch it. I'm still going to enjoy it when we're. You know what we're always going to remember the lamb of Troy, aka Travis, Kelsey, 2018. Marge versus the monorail. Kelsey, 2020. Look, the show isn't what it once was, but if you put the new ones on, you're still going to watch it and you're still going to have a good time. So that's why.

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Travis, Kelsey. Yeah, let me just.

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Simpson. What is it? What does it mean, though? What does it mean, though? If, like, I don't really watch them. You like, if you put the Simpsons on, I'm like, I'm gonna walk out of the room. I don't. I just. I don't really care. My shorts, like the 90.

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Hold on. Yes.

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Feed me.

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You're gonna sit in front of a crowd of a thousand people and say you don't watch the Simpsons?

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Yeah, I don't. I don't. I'm not saying I don't have think the Simpsons is an all time great show. I just don't watch it anymore. Do you guys actually actively watch the Simpsons? Yeah.

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Did you take it as, like, bench Kelsey?

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No, no, I get. I get it. I get what you're saying. He's an all timer. He's not at the top. But I just take umbrage with. I take umbrage with, like, I'm still going to watch the Simpsons if it's on, because it's not true and I'm a man of truth.

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That's great. I can't wait for you to go so I could take a dump on everything you just say.

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Yeah, try it.

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Yeah, go ahead. Go ahead.

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Well, he's going last. Oh, I'm jumping in. We're gonna talk about Alvin Camara and it's a weird.

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No, no. That stories. That is the correct response.

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Yeah.

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No, that is exactly what I wanted to hear. Because get this, Alvin Camara, he is Downton Abbey. All right, now just stay with me on this for a second and enjoy that picture of Derek Carr because he doesn't seem like something you should like in fantasy. The side characters are a bit much. I'm not here for a history lesson. Right. I don't want to remember the magnificent past of Alvin Chimera. That doesn't help me in fantasy. And it seems like he's so boring to roster because he's going to be so boring to roster. Nobody takes him in the draft with a lot of joy. But you're going to watch and you're going to give it a try and you're going to like it this year, because this was a player who is so boring that he still ended up the number two fantasy running back from weeks four to 15. When he came back, I can feel the crowd.

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They're like, do I admit that I like Downton Abbey?

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This is my message.

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I can't tell people that there's only two.

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Two types of people in the world. There are people who have seen Downton Abbey and they know it's great and people that haven't yet seen it, and they go, that looks so boring. Because it looks so boring.

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But what I'm saying is, embrace that boring. Embrace the history lesson. And just don't tell your friends you drafted in, right? Just like you don't tell them you watch down Navy.

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Yeah. Down Navy's full PPR. That is like, down Abby is 100%, like, point per reception. It's more valuable than you think it should be, for sure. All right, I'm up.

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Yeah. Yeah.

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Mike's ready.

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Yeah. You ready to crow? They will. You will boo this one because you. Once, once you understand it, maybe not right off the bat, but Justin Jefferson is the office.

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Yeah, baby.

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Justin Jefferson is one of the best ever. He is awesome. The office is fantastic. I think it might be my favorite comedy show of all time. But there's bad news, foot clan. When Michael Scott left, it wasn't the same. It wasn't as good. And Captain Kirk is leaving. And I'm telling you right now, I know.

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Look at that show.

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Justin Jefferson is great. Obviously, this isn't a. It will be bold takes later. He's great, but he's not going to be great for fantasy in the middle of the first round, without a question, quarterback. The same way that the greatest comedy show of all time was not as good. It wasn't bad, but no one out here is like, oh, dude, I think the better. I think the seasons without Michael Scott were the best. No, that's why it got canceled. Okay.

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And about the lizard, there are a lot of Justin Jefferson Dynasty managers out there that were very sad a minute ago.

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Yeah, well, they're sad. They're gonna be sad this year, too, because you got Sam Donald, and at least you had a bright spot in JJ McCarthy, and that stinks that he's gone.

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You're not a big Sam fan.

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I'm not a big Sam fan. The more that I've dug into the numbers and seen his touchdown rates over his career, it's putrid. And that's where, like, Justin Jefferson's gonna be fine. Between the twenties it's gonna have a lot of yards. He's going to be, I'm not saying he's like the wide receiver, 40, but he can't return on middle of the first round value. It's almost impossible unless you're up at, you know, 910. Eleven touchdowns and Sam Donald's not doing that. Sam Donald is not a good quarterback. Here's look.

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Oh no.

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Sam Donald has played oh no. Mark of the Beast games, okay? He's played 66 games over six seasons. Mark of the beast. The, the real can't be your thing, man. My thing is the mark of the beast. I'm the mark of the beast. Guy.

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Show me another podcast that references the mark of the price.

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It's me. So Warren Sharp points this out.

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Boo.

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On qualified completion rates. Sam Donald's completion rate on his career is 59.7%. His career. His career. That ranks 47th out of 48 qualified quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins is number four of 48. That's gonna change things, people. Why are we still drafting Justin Jefferson ahead of AJ Brown and other guys who have good quarterbacks? It's a. It's not saying that he's bad to use logic and be smart.

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Now, see, Mike, you don't have to dump on his take, cuz he, his rake is kind of like a dump in and of itself.

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Yeah, it is negative. It is negative. I apologize. I know. And honestly, look, I was looking at the show doc today. I'm like, man, I am a hateful dude. Mike. Yeah. My bold predictions are really negative.

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I brought them here to disappoint.

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I want more positivity in the show.

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I got you.

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You got what I want, I think. Andy, why don't you talk about how much you love Kyle Pitts? Make it positive. Why don't you bring cow pits up? You love them.

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Well, no, hold on, hold on.

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Wait a minute, hold on. Because I seem to remember, and I've got a golden ticket.

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I got a golden ticket.

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Yeah. You know how long I've been saving on to this for this show, baby?

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I know.

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Yeah.

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I love Kyle Pitts.

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Yes, you do. Let me tell you how much you do, Andy. Why don't you. Oh, no. Why don't you read the people what you think about Kyle Pitts?

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This is a novel.

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Andy has no idea that this is happening right now.

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Yeah, we knew he was in the dark, baby.

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I wondered what was happening when you brought the name up. Yeah, I was ready to move on.

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All right, well, let's listen to.

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I have to re. Oh my goodness.

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Yeah, it's a. It's a basically another take swap, golden ticket version. Let's go.

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It is the golden ticket. So I guess I have no choice. I'm glad everyone's here. It's time to come clean about something that has been bugging me for quite a while. I love Kyle Pitts and I want the world to know it.

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Nice.

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Oh, okay. Because Kyle Pitts is parks and rec.

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Come on.

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You gotta be kidding. How did you pull this up?

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All right.

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I refused to watch Parks and rec forever. Everyone said it was great and I was snooty.

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That's true.

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I was slow to listen. I said, nah. I said, I'm too cool for that.

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Yeah, you really did.

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And then one day I came to the realization that maybe, just maybe, I was missing out on something great. So I watched. And the beginning of that show sucked.

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It did?

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Yeah. First season was pretty rough. Season one was not funny. It was like they had a bad director. Like Arthur Smith was in charge.

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Oh, why? What a good comp. Andi.

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Yeah, this is good thoughts of mine. But after season one, they cut some characters, reshaped others, and it literally turned into one of, if not the best comedy show of all time.

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Oh.

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And that's what I think is gonna happen with Kyle Pitt.

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Really?

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I really think that a slow start with a bad cast of characters, and then you exit Arthur Smith, exit left, Desmond Ritter. Goodbye, and enter the Rams offense. And Kirk Cousins. Kyle Pitts will finish his career as one of the all time greatest ever to play.

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Wow, that's bold, man.

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Because Pitts is not even 24 years old. And Travis Kelsey caught his first pass in the NFL when he was 24. I'm glad I thought of that. Kelsey had his 1st 1000 yard season at age 27. Yeah, Pitts did that at age 21.

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Whoa. Clearly better.

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Big difference. Buckle up, please. Keep going.

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Do not turn off your tv. Kyle Pitts will break out this year like season two of parks and Rec. He is the steel of the draft. And you heard it from me, Andy Holloway.

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Yeah, that's great.

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That's big of you.

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I'm not sure why you. Oh, the crowd loves it, Andy.

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Yeah.

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Does that mean that golden ticket is gone?

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Yeah. Tear that thing up.

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Tear it up.

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Correct. Why'd you.

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I can't believe you pulled that off.

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You know, don't turn off your tvs.

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Well, like, that's what you do when you're done with the show.

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Yeah.

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Like, and then he's saying, turn it back on.

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Some people will stop watching. I mean, I said after one season.

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Yeah, but we're nothing.

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We're a podcast.

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It was more about watching parks and rec.

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Okay. I'm just saying it was a bad.

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Rep. Have another drink. Have another drink, Mike. We're ready to roll.

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Welcome to ready to roll, presented by Nissan.

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You got animations I didn't know about?

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Mm hmm.

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Yeah.

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Pictures and scripts, and you broke it out.

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It takes a village.

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It's a live show. All right, time for some ready to roll. I thought this would be very interesting. We have looked at some very eye opening stats stuff to get you ready to go for the season. And we looked at juicy opening schedules.

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This is literally ready to roll.

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Yeah. Yeah.

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And we look at those that are going to like. You talk about Jared golf all the time, how the start of the season, it's really good. But we also know that there's turnover on the defensive side, so sometimes bad defenses become better and vice versa. So we wanted to look at every position and whether there were some players, and this is just gonna be fascinating. Are there players that just start hot, independent of the schedule, year after year?

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Like, they're just. They're hot starters. The opposite of Derek Henry and Najee Harris, who finished strong, and James Conner. Yeah.

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So I'll start. We've got two quarterbacks that have been hot starters. I brought one up frequently. He goes late in drafts, but tua, tua tunga, viloa, you had. Those are like late season booers because you can't be a first part of the season booer. There's not a name I can say.

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Seriously, we're hot tonight.

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Yeah, but tua, if you remember two years ago, that 40 point plus, you know, the six touchdown game started as the quarterback seven through the first ten weeks of the season. And then last year, he was the quarterback one in week one. He was the quarterback five through the first eight weeks. And then I traded him to Mike.

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And then, yeah, I cooled him off.

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And then he cooled him off.

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So say, grab an icy dude and.

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Then another player that's not being talked about because of the injury and because I think people are hesitant. But Kirk Cousins, oh, you love him.

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He's one of the greatest of all time.

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Yeah, because of Pits. But over the last three years, he's averaged over 20 fantasy points per game through the first half of the season. And we even forget how good he was before the injury. Last year, he was a quarterback six in fantasy, he has my favorite player, Kyle Pitts. He's got Bijon, he's got Drake. London, you talked about Darnell Mooney is like a late value. Those are two hot starters at the quarterback position that we've seen for multiple years.

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Sure. Now wide receiver Tyree kill. I mean, that it makes sense because Tua has been such a hot starter, but over the last two years, he's averaging over 100, 120 receiving yards per game. Like that. That is an outrageous pace.

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I think that people forget how fast Miami is every start of the year.

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Yeah.

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Like they think, okay, you know, they can't be that fast.

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I mean, it makes sense. I mean, you're in Florida, right? When the, when the cold weather comes in, you just, you don't know what to do. You're used to the heat. And then Stefan Diggs, we all remember last year. Yeah.

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This one's interesting.

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This one is, is pretty fascinating.

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Weeks one through nine, almost 18 points per game. Wide receiver, three in that span last year. Wide receiver ten or a week, ten on. Just absolutely terrible. And this has actually been something that, that he has done to us. It was really magnified this past year. But Stefan Diggs has been a hot starter and not, not as hot at the end.

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Yeah. 16 fantasy points per game in September, 15 in October, 13 in November, 11 in December.

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Yeah.

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For whatever reason, he has slowed down over the course of the season. So I don't know what's going to happen in Houston. He feels like one of those players that we're not drafting a lot of, but I still think we acknowledge that that could be.

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Yeah.

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He a situation where they do find a lot of fantasy value early.

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He could definitely get off to a hot start. Another guy that I'm not drafting much of. But when we're looking at this data where I saw, man, I'm like, am.

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I going to get, you don't want to draft.

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I don't want to draft him, but I'm starting to think I'm wrong here and the data says it and what's going on around the team says is Josh Jacobs the running back for the Green Bay packers? He has, yeah, I mean, okay, people are in. People are in. So here's, here's the data. In 2021, he had over 13 fantasy points per game. He was the only running back not to bust in the first half. The first half, no bust games. Obviously he was great that year, but I don't think we realize last season he was actually the running back. Seven in the first half before, you.

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Know, it didn't feel like last year as a whole didn't feel good.

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Yeah. Well, 2022 RB, seven in the first half. Last year RB. Five in the first half before the wheels fell off. And so you're going like, okay, are the wheels gone? Is he on blocks? You know, is he. Is he a car raised up and.

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He'S just keep him going.

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He's done, or he's been. Start fast. And you know when you start fast? Right now. Report came out today that both AJ Dylan and Marshawn Lloyd are questionable for week one with the hot starter of Josh Jacobs is like, okay, goodness gracious, is it. Is he going to work? So now I haven't done my main drafts yet, and I'm moving Josh Jacobs up and I'm going, all right, maybe there are some players you don't draft to trade. You don't draft them only to trade them. But you go like these players. I know that they can start hot and have the wheels fall off. So maybe midway through the season I'll trade them. We'll talk about one of those guys later. And a tight end. I just want to remind you guys, Mark Andrews has been a model of consistent.

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See?

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Yeah.

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Did you reboot halfway?

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Was that a bit powering down?

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That's just how. That's just how I say consistent. C. All right, in 2021, he was the tight end two. I don't know, through the first six games. In 2022, he was the tight end two through the first six games. In 2023, he was the tight end two, through the first six games. So he's pretty good. And trade him before he gets injured is basically it. But he's. He's a hot starter, and, you know, I think right now I'm scooping him up in the fifth round. Sometimes that's an amazing value. And you can't draft guys to trade them unless they do well, you don't trade, you know, between your draft and kickoff very often. So it's like you want guys that start, start hot. I think Mark Andrews is a great pick for that.

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Yeah, no one makes sense. And I was a little disappointed you didn't take him in our last mock draft because I didn't know if you were starting to fade, but I guess you're not.

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Mm mm.

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You're very consistent.

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See about him.

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Yeah.

[00:20:55]

All right, that was ready to roll. Presented as always by Nissan, find your path in the 2024. Nissan Pathfinder, Rock Creek. Whether that's rocky trails or snowy roads, there's plenty of places to show off this suv. Learn more at Nissan USA.

[00:21:10]

Intelligent four wheel drive cannot prevent collisions or provide enhanced traction in all conditions. Always monitor traffic and weather conditions.

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Yeah.

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Let'S get into the news.

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News and notes from around the league presented by USAA insurance.

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All right. We do have some fun stuff to talk about. Maybe not fun. Maybe we should have gotten you a deck of cards, Mike, but Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin.

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Michael. Michael.

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He said he's not going to name a starter at quarterback, Michael, until the end of the work week.

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The work week.

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Is that a true.

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Michael, what is the work week for them?

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Is that Friday?

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I mean, here's the thing, guys, book it. Week one, Steelers slaughter their opponents because they have no idea who this, they have no clue that Russell Wilson is about to be the starting quarterback for the Steelers. Mister Tomlin, what are you doing? This is an embarrassment.

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You don't question Mister Tomlin.

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I do.

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I do not. He has, what is this, like 17 years in a row of him being over five? He's, he's one of the best coaches in the league. Think that this says something? Yeah, I mean, I mean, I watched his interviews this week before this quote came out and he was still saying like, nothing has changed with the order of my quarterbacks. Now he's saying into the work week, is the, is there any chance it's not Russell Wilson?

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No. Yeah, that's why this is dumb.

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All right, I see that budget magician material.

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Yeah. Now Matt Nagy's like, oh, man, there was about to crush.

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There was a point advantage this offseason where it seemed like they stole Russell Wilson and they stole Justin Fields and that they were going to fix situation at quarterback. How do you feel about them now?

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I think they're going to play good defense and try to run the ball.

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So it brings up points about George Pickens too because. What's the latest on Brandon Ayuk?

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Nothing.

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Anybody know?

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Yeah. Anybody in California here with insight?

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Y'all.

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Y'all live here? What's going on?

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I believe the last report we saw was an active report of. There's nothing to report.

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Yeah, that's not a joke.

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Like nothing to report.

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And I am like, we're drafting now. Like people are, this is like the biggest draft weekend of the year and.

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Who'S, who's drafted their league of record.

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Okay, okay. Anybody drafting right now during the show? Yeah, we got a handful.

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You got a handful?

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And they said yes, but they don't have phones out. No liars. All right, but, but this was fun and games when it was like, oh, we'll just wait to see what happens and then we'll figure out debo and we'll figure out kittle and then on the other side, I love George Pickens. If he's the guy in Pittsburgh. What do you do now if you're actively in a draft and at any moment because the report that nothing's happening also said the trade still on the table. Like the 49 ers, if they can't work a deal out, they can just click, click the accept button. Basically my own. What do you do with Pickens?

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My honest opinion is find your stance. Like don't, don't sit on the fence. Because when you sit on the fence, you know what goes right in the crotch.

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You don't want that fence.

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It's not, you ever done that?

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I think they get, it's not good.

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Yeah.

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Especially don't sit on the pole like, you know, you want to go, you want to go to the whole wide.

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Yeah. Thanks.

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Pick your stance, how it's going to end up one way or the other. To me it's, I, you plays for the 49 ers and that's how I am drafting.

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So wait, wait, wait. I want to, I want to challenge that for a minute.

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Okay.

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Because you're drafting that way. I presume you think it is worse for him fantasy wise if he changes, right? If you go to the Steelers because of the Steelers.

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I do.

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Okay. So right now he is going on sleeper at the three.

[00:25:13]

He's going, he's going like I love, I love Brandon Iook, I, I legitimately in my heart watching him play. I think that he is a, you're a believer, a top tier player who deserves the contract that is that I think he will sign. And if he goes to somewhere like Pittsburgh, over time he will become a true elite fantasy football player. But at this point, if you're switching right now, that's rough. Like it's brutal for this season. So, and I thought he was being overdrafted as a 49 eR. I think he will be a top 20 guy easy and he'll give you spike weeks. But I think like he's being drafted above Deebo.

[00:25:51]

He is, he is, he is wide receiver 13. Deebo is wide receiver 14.

[00:25:54]

And as much as I believe in Brenna, you, I wouldn't do that.

[00:25:58]

Right. I wouldn't either. The, the entire round, other than Stefan Diggs in the third, I would not draft any of those guys over Brandon ayuk as of today, which is Mike Evans, nico Collins, Jalen waddle. Like, I would rather have those guys over Brandon ayuk with the unknown of we don't know where he's playing football.

[00:26:15]

Does the situation change how you view Kittle.

[00:26:18]

So it is a little bit of the flip, right? Debo samuel, I think, is right now being drafted at a good spot if brandon ayuk shows up. Kittle is being drafted at a good spot if ayuk is on the roster. If he leaves, there is built in value that that is already there. So I'm in love with those two picks right now in fantasy, because if Brandon Ayuk resigns and he's there week one, I I don't think I made a mistake. And if he gets traded, I've got incredible value.

[00:26:46]

All right, and then one. One more piece of information here. The preseason, week three, there have been some games played, and, oh, yeah, normally we wouldn't report on this player.

[00:26:55]

Oh, Jason, that was a full spin take.

[00:26:58]

What are you remembering?

[00:27:00]

I literally just did on my laptop. I just remembered what happened today.

[00:27:04]

So it was awesome.

[00:27:05]

It was not awesome.

[00:27:07]

It was awesome.

[00:27:08]

Trey Lance.

[00:27:09]

Trey Lance.

[00:27:10]

I played a full game.

[00:27:11]

Yeah, he did.

[00:27:12]

You got some numbers for me?

[00:27:13]

I do.

[00:27:14]

Okay. Let's see how we did.

[00:27:15]

Trey Lance, 323 yards, a passing touchdown. Eleven for 90 on the ground with a 46 yard rushing touchdown. This is exactly what the Trey Lance hive has signed up for.

[00:27:29]

Those are elite.

[00:27:30]

Those are incredible fans numbers.

[00:27:33]

I do have one more. Five interceptions, five intercepts.

[00:27:38]

You?

[00:27:38]

Fumbles in one game?

[00:27:40]

Well, in the preseason. Against preseason, like the whole game, meaning against backups, how do you throw five interceptions against.

[00:27:49]

Spicy, man.

[00:27:50]

They're playing for a job.

[00:27:53]

What happened, man? Eleven.

[00:27:56]

What happened is.

[00:27:59]

Yeah, it's over.

[00:28:00]

He's not good.

[00:28:03]

All right, that was today's news and notes presented by USAA insurance. Learn more@usaa.com insurance. Are you guys ready for some bold predictions? Let's do it.

[00:28:18]

Ridiculously bold predictions.

[00:28:28]

All right, I'm scanning. I'm scanning the audience here because I wanted to make sure that this guy's. No one's wearing his jersey in the first few rows because I'm not sure you're gonna like what I'm gonna say here, but brace yourselves.

[00:28:44]

No, he loves.

[00:28:46]

Clearly, I love Kyle Pitts. Yeah, he's the best. I'm surprised he didn't give me a jersey to wear. The rest of the show should have. Here's bold prediction number one for me, and I'm not excited to say this. I just. I just believe it. Anthony Richardson is not going to be a top ten quarterback in 2024.

[00:29:10]

I think it's mixed. I think it's mixed up there, and I am.

[00:29:14]

I'm sorry. But this is not happening this year. And he is being. He is unproven, inaccurate, and overdrafted. And in fantasy, this might work out at some point in time. I think it probably will.

[00:29:30]

Like, I'm not Trey Lance any day, baby.

[00:29:33]

Any day. This has a lot of tray Lance vibes.

[00:29:36]

But here's the problem, is that last year he was a rookie in Indianapolis, and he was the 108th player off the board in fantasy 10th round this year, after two games played, which they lost.

[00:29:50]

Two full games.

[00:29:52]

Two full games, two injuries and two losses in the full games that he played, by the way, he's now the 52nd player off the board. So two games, five rounds.

[00:30:01]

Yeah.

[00:30:01]

We like what we saw for Anthony Richardson, people. Yeah, I mean, that. That is true. People are. They're excited about the potential. But here's what blew my mind. He has started 17 total games since high school.

[00:30:15]

1717. That is not true. Double check your work.

[00:30:20]

He has double check your work.

[00:30:22]

Beep boop.

[00:30:23]

Confirmed.

[00:30:24]

Whoa. That was quick.

[00:30:27]

AI's good.

[00:30:29]

No, do not check AI for fantasy days. That's true. Factually wrong.

[00:30:35]

Nonstop, 477 total passes he's thrown since 2019 as a quarterback. So when you talk about inexperienced like Trey, Lance could teach him a thing or two, is what I'm saying. And then. And then I'm telling you, he's also historically inaccurate. Like, in college, he was a 54% passer. That's bad.

[00:31:04]

You take away over half man, you.

[00:31:05]

Take away the screen game. This blew my mind. You take away just screen passes. He's under 50%.

[00:31:11]

Oh, that's under half mike.

[00:31:13]

Crap.

[00:31:13]

Yeah.

[00:31:15]

I have no rebuttals.

[00:31:16]

Last year, there wasn't a top ten fantasy quarterback under 64%. Okay. And over the last, like five years, the high, the lowest was 60%. Now it was Jalen Hurts. And you're hoping for that season out of him. But their schedule is rough. They're favored in four of their 1st 13 games. So rusty Anthony Richardson, who didn't get to play, who's basically like a rookie with a, you know, an asterisk there, a sophomore with an asterisk who's also.

[00:31:44]

Looked like trash in preseason, you take it easy.

[00:31:46]

He's looked really, really bad. And now you have to spend a fifth round pick for him. So, tank Dell, goodbye. You don't get Tank Dell.

[00:31:53]

Yes, I do.

[00:31:54]

George Kittle. See ya. Goodbye, t. Higgins. Nope, not on my team. Because I took Anthony Richardson and so he has to take that big leap forward. And I think the ride is going to be. There's going to be games when you're like, oh, my gosh. Like, he has everything. He's going to run and he's going to get into the end zone just like he did in a couple of those games last year. But I think you. I think you're seeing it with where Michael Pittman's being drafted. I think there are doubts about the accuracy. So, you know, you know how many games that. So he has 17 games played since high school. How many games Jayden Daniels has? 1855.

[00:32:33]

We don't make it up, people.

[00:32:35]

55 games played. He is five rounds later. He is a prolific runner. He has the same opportunity, I think, as Richardson because they're both basically rookies. To me, this is the most overdrafted player in fantasy. I'm sorry, but that's my bold prediction.

[00:32:52]

I actually like it.

[00:32:53]

I'm saying no.

[00:32:55]

I. I hate that.

[00:32:58]

I'm going great. For me this year. My bold prediction was all booze last year.

[00:33:04]

It was. Yeah. To south.

[00:33:09]

I'm done.

[00:33:10]

I'm leaving.

[00:33:11]

I'll do your second one.

[00:33:12]

Yeah. All right, Mike.

[00:33:16]

It is like it.

[00:33:18]

Does it give you pause?

[00:33:19]

It's unfortunately statistically compelling. But I mean, as you learned on the show the other week, I don't care about stats.

[00:33:29]

Right.

[00:33:30]

You're very high.

[00:33:31]

But he runs enough. Maybe you'll be all about feel.

[00:33:33]

Yeah. Fire in your gut.

[00:33:36]

All right. I have a savior for your running back room.

[00:33:40]

Everybody.

[00:33:40]

Do you know, I've been talking about him all off season. My faith has not trembled one bit. No. Joe, mix it.

[00:33:50]

The gas are coming.

[00:33:52]

No, no, no, no. This man is being drafted as the RB 45. He is suave. He will save your teams. Mister.

[00:34:02]

Rico Dowdle.

[00:34:07]

It's quite, quite the introduction.

[00:34:11]

Rico Dowdle.

[00:34:12]

I don't think they like it.

[00:34:13]

Rico suave.

[00:34:14]

I don't care. You know what hurts the most, Jason? The truth. Rico Dowdle finishes this season as a top 20 running back despite being drafted and the double digit rounds. And here's. Here is why. He has a mat. Look, massive opportunity coming up for the Dallas backfield. He's only 26. He has the size, the frame. 511. 213.

[00:34:40]

I like it. Look, I wish it was 215, but I'll accept. Just eat a burger. That's all I'm saying.

[00:34:47]

Right before game day.

[00:34:48]

Yeah, just. Just a full gallon of water. Hydrate up.

[00:34:52]

He can handle the workload. In college. He was a true three down guy last year. He was explosive. Doubtful last year per player profiler. 9th. 9th among running backs in yards created per touch last year, despite the lack of snaps, doubtful had four games of double digit fantasy points. That's the tame. The same as Haj Spears, who people seem infatuated with on a crappy offense like, hey, Tasha Spears, look.

[00:35:22]

That is their voice last year.

[00:35:26]

Last Tennessee voice. Miss the accent. I think I nailed it.

[00:35:30]

Yeah.

[00:35:30]

Last year, 50% of the Dallas drives resulted in a score. They were averaging 30 points per game. Tony Pollard is vacating 16 carries inside the five. And despite the wisdom of Jerry Jones saying, hey, we're all in. I mean, those are words. Those are not actions.

[00:35:52]

He made the grave.

[00:35:53]

Those are, those are not actions of Jerry Jones. His big action of all in was I'm going to bring in 29 year old Ezekiel Elliot, who may as well be 39 years old at this point because he's carried the ball over 2000 times his yards per carry 2000 his yards per carry the last three years, 4.23.83. .5 do you see where this is going? It's going in a negative direction. Look, it is an ambiguous backfield. In preseason, Rico Dowdall was the guy, you know, first six snaps with the starters and then he was put on ice because they believe Enrico Dowdall. All reports out of Dallas training camp. Doubt was the player who has the most juice at the running back position, the Athletic. He has to be the favorite to lead the team in rushing. I shared the stat in the ten tips and tricks of over the last five years, eight and a half teams per year, they don't have a top 24 running back drafted. And yet on average we see five running backs from those teams break into the top 24. And I think that is Rico Dowdall who will lead the Dallas Cowboys in rushing and Ezekiel Elliott.

[00:37:08]

It's done, man. It is absolutely over. I don't care how much power his name carries. When they start playing football and they can't move the ball, just like last year, eventually they're like, this isn't working. Go to Dak, go to CD. And it will work with Rico Dowdall who will finish as a top 20 guy and he will save your running back. But Mike, goodness gracious.

[00:37:32]

Voice of public opinion.

[00:37:35]

How come last year they went away from Pollard and he finished as the running back? 50 total did.

[00:37:42]

That was last year.

[00:37:44]

Your voice is struggling.

[00:37:45]

I don't know. I over screamed in the intro.

[00:37:50]

Look, over the last five years, a top 20 running back, they averaged 900 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Zeke, just a couple years ago when he was still not great and he was 27, he was still a top 20, back when he was averaging 3.8 yards per carry. You give Rico Dowdle more work. More work inside the five, which I think that they will. Clan.

[00:38:11]

Foot clan. Fine. Find somebody that loves you like Mike loves Rico Dowdle.

[00:38:15]

Oh, man.

[00:38:16]

Excuse.

[00:38:16]

We're here to help.

[00:38:17]

Excuse me. Rico Suave. Put some respect on his name.

[00:38:21]

Okay, that's fair. We could call him Rico suave. But I think. I think what? I think you're. You're. You're. You know, you talk about you're correct statistics making sense for Andy. And I think the statistics do actually make sense for Ezekiel Elliot here to finish as a top 20 bat.

[00:38:36]

Oh, no, no.

[00:38:39]

Go ahead. Waste your picks on Zeke. I dare you.

[00:38:43]

I think we got to have a Zeke v. Rico suave water bet. We gotta do it. Water bethe.

[00:38:51]

Easy money.

[00:38:53]

All right, all right, Jason.

[00:38:55]

All right, all right.

[00:38:55]

Let's have you guys want to hear from Jason.

[00:38:57]

My first bold prediction that I think the entire world is behind.

[00:39:02]

Yes. Yes. Yeah. Foot clan, prepare yourself.

[00:39:06]

Dennis allen, the head coach of the New Orleans Saints, will be fired after week five.

[00:39:15]

The biggest cheer of the night.

[00:39:18]

Freedom.

[00:39:23]

You don't like that guy?

[00:39:24]

This dude sucks. Okay, look, it's fun in fantasy. We've had a long lineage of head coaching villains, right? We used to love Duncan on. Oh, yeah. With adam gaseous number two, jeff Fisher. Yeah. Last year was Arthur smith. This year, it's Dennis allen, the short term head coach of the New Orleans Saints. He is maybe the worst coach I've ever seen, but also, dennis Allen is so unlikable, I can't believe it. This dude sucks. His Persona is that he's high and mighty and that he is the brightest, shining star, and instead, he is the biggest whining excuse maker I've ever seen at head coach. This dude sucks.

[00:40:18]

So hold on. I feel like. I feel like 75% of your argument so far is this dude sucks.

[00:40:25]

It should be 90%. Mike. I will work on that. We joked about a month ago that on the footcast, I think it was that Dennis Allen is clearly. He's driving a vet. He's got a corn vet, right? He's one of those guys driving around his vet. I looked into it. We were wrong. He drives a bus, and he drives it over his players, and he drives it over his coaching staff. Okay? Every single time he is at the podium, all he does is blame everyone else. Beep, beep, beep, beep. You suck. Beep, beep. My teammate, my player, you suck. Unless you're Taysom Hill. He loves. In love with Taysom Hill.

[00:41:02]

Oh, my gosh.

[00:41:04]

But, like, if you look at the offensive coordinator from last. Oh, wait, no, you got fired. But the defensive coordinator also got fired. Not Dennis Allen's fault. Not is the coordinators you. Okay, so here it is. Look, I'm saying he gets fired after five weeks. Here's why. I've got a three tiered process. Tier one, his coaching sucks. Tier two, his personality sucks.

[00:41:28]

Okay, all right.

[00:41:30]

Tier three, his schedule sucks. Okay, let's talk about tier one. He's not a good football coach. He was, you might not remember this, and he will be so grateful if you don't. He was the Raiders head coach for three years back in 2012. He went four and twelve year one.

[00:41:50]

We'Re building, we're building, we're building.

[00:41:52]

He didn't get fired despite going forward. So I didn't get fired. Came back another year. He went four and twelve.

[00:41:58]

Okay, we're Billy days.

[00:42:00]

And obviously got no, he didn't get fired. Instead, he went zero four to start the next year. Finally got fired. You know who his quarterback was then?

[00:42:09]

This is wild.

[00:42:10]

Derek Carr, his current quarterback. He lucked into getting the Saints head coaching job. He didn't, like, win the gig. Sean Payton left this franchise in a tissy and like, was like, hey, you, he's the head coach. Okay? So now what has he done? He's been sub 500 with a great defense and good talent. He has the lowest winning percentage of all 32 head coaches in the NFL. He's won 34% of his games as a head coach after going nine and eight last year, which is his greatest accomplishment of all time. Also, he did have the league's easiest strength of schedule. Saints fans were literally raising money online to put up fire. Dennis Allen Billboards in New Orleans.

[00:42:58]

Is that likable?

[00:42:59]

He's that likable. They tied for the second best turnover margin at eleven, yet he had just one win against the playoff team. It. He's just a bad coach.

[00:43:08]

That's tier one.

[00:43:09]

Yeah, that, that's tier one. Nobody has a dude, I can't stand this. If it's not clear, I can't stand this guy because I think it's clear. I watch how he talks about like, I would hate being. I would hate being a player. For a coach like that. You look at how players got out. Jamus got out. Yeah, we'll talk about that in a second. Okay. Number two, his personality sucks. Every interview he looks like a stressed and disappointed uncle. Not a dad, an uncle. He's like, you have no respect here. Why are you talking? Here's what he said about Kendra Miller this offseason. It's hard to make the team when you're in the training room all the time. Also, quite frankly, since we drafted him, there hasn't been a whole lot of new information other than what I saw on college tape, because he hasn't been available. You whiny baby.

[00:44:01]

The guy's been hurt.

[00:44:03]

I don't know if he could pick up the system because I haven't seen him out there. You whiny baby. Look, harbaugh has justin herbert go down and lad mcconkie go down. You don't see him up at the podium being like, I don't even know if lad can do it. He's been injured.

[00:44:19]

Jjdehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe the man has quinton johnston on his team, and I don't hear no. And he's defending yes because he.

[00:44:26]

That's right.

[00:44:27]

A little. He's trying to build up his team. Yeah. I don't know.

[00:44:31]

That player sucks.

[00:44:32]

18. Perry, here's what he said about another young player at pair. He's been fine. Doing fine in anything is not going to end up cutting it. He has to do some things, catch our eye and impress us. And so I'm still waiting for that from him. That was when he was doing good things. This dude, uh, sucks. All right. Tier three.

[00:44:50]

Oh, no.

[00:44:51]

His schedule sucks. So if you are a Saints fan, please root with me for them to lose against the Panthers in week one. This is for the good of your franchise. Yeah, it could be week one because you should win. You should beat the Panthers to your four point favorites. Okay. But if you lose, oh, it'll be so good for the future of your franchise. Week two on the road in Dallas. Week three against the Philadelphia Eagles. Week four against the division winning Atlanta Falcons this season. Week five.

[00:45:24]

Did you just reference the future? Just making sure.

[00:45:29]

Bold prediction, 1.5. And then week five on the road against Kansas City. If he doesn't get fired by then, when he is one in four or Owen five, we're in luck, because two weeks later, Sean Payton comes back to the bayou. That will be fun. And I promise he will send him home with a pink slip. You want to know why Sean Payton personally installed this guy, Dennis Allen, as the future head coach? Because he knew he was coming back to coach, and he's like, dude, I would love one team to be coached by that guy.

[00:46:03]

That's easy. Don't worry about it.

[00:46:05]

That's an easy dub. I mean, last year, I don't know if you guys know the details of this story, but, you know, against Atlanta last year, this year's future champion of the division, they were up. It was like 41 to 17, and the whole team wanted to get Jamal Williams a touchdown. And it came to Dennis Allen. And Dennis Allen said, no victory formation, and so the team goes, no victory formation, and so the team goes out there. James Winston was behind center, and he. The whole team decides in the huddle, we want to get him the touchdown. So they. They disobey the coach, which, first of all, huge sign of respect.

[00:46:50]

Yeah, big time.

[00:46:52]

Clearly. Clearly, the coach has respect and just loves working with his team, and his team loves working with him. And then afterwards, when they got the touchdown for Jamal Williams, the whole team was happy to. Denis Al came out after the major victory, one of his few, and said, I can't. Like, he threw Jameis Winston under the bus, through the team, under the bus, apologized profusely, said that was, you know, wrong of them. He just doesn't care about his. He doesn't care about his teammates and his players the way and his coaching staff the way that he should, and that will result in him getting fired, I think, after week five.

[00:47:24]

Wow.

[00:47:24]

And I think all Saints fans want that.

[00:47:26]

What do we think? I've been.

[00:47:29]

I love it. They love it.

[00:47:31]

Tell us. Tell us what you really think, Jay.

[00:47:34]

Yeah, it's emotional for me.

[00:47:36]

Yeah. No, I pick up on that.

[00:47:38]

Week five is intense.

[00:47:39]

I just think, like, I watch all these press conferences. It's my job. I watch 32 coaches talk, and there's only one that I'm like, this dude sucks. I mean, just like, he would not want.

[00:47:55]

Yeah, that's tough.

[00:47:56]

Yeah. I mean, I wouldn't want to be his friend. Is that too far?

[00:48:01]

No, no. So long ago. So long ago.

[00:48:08]

He doesn't want to be.

[00:48:09]

I don't think he's gonna want to be your friend.

[00:48:10]

No, I think this. We got a knock.

[00:48:12]

Dennis, the minutes.

[00:48:19]

All right, bold prediction number two. You ready?

[00:48:21]

Oh, my goodness.

[00:48:23]

You thought you liked me.

[00:48:24]

Yeah.

[00:48:26]

The Rams are back. They win the NFC West, Puka and Cup. They're both top ten wide receivers in 2024. Now, I'm not going to pretend they love it. I'm not going to pretend it doesn't hurt as a Cardinals fan to have this near me, because it does.

[00:48:59]

But is it sweaty wearing a Rams jersey under your shirt over there?

[00:49:04]

The Rams are back. The Rams are back.

[00:49:07]

Okay, tell me why.

[00:49:08]

And people can't see it, but the Rams are back this year. And it means that both of those wide receivers that you're trying to decide between, they're both finishing in the top ten this year when, when Kyron returned from IR, from week twelve on the Rams average 31 points a game in this offense, that's a lot. Sean McVeigh came out and said, he literally said, I can't believe I ever considered retiring. He loves this team. He loves these players. He says Cooper cup is the reason that he coaches. They went out and found Puka Nicole, who broke every record. Both guys healthy, both on the field. The defense, everyone wants to pay attention to the fact that Aaron Donald is gone, and that is huge. That's a big deal. But this was a defense that was coming along already. They made great draft picks. They put Jared verse into that defense, and they are making great strides in here. Unlike the Saints, they are favored in every single game from weeks five through 13 this season, every single game in that stretch.

[00:50:08]

What about the first four?

[00:50:11]

I am selective in my bold prediction, Mike, but this idea of them being both top ten receivers, this is not as uncommon as you think it would be. Antonio Brandon Juju did it in 2018. Evans and Godwin did it in 2019. Adam Thielen did it twice. That's right. Win once with Diggs, once with Jefferson.

[00:50:34]

I don't remember.

[00:50:35]

Yeah, well, it happened. Tyreek and Waddle did it in 2022. AJ Brown Devontae Smith did it in 2022.

[00:50:42]

Wait, who? Jalen Waddle.

[00:50:44]

Jalen Waddle did it.

[00:50:45]

Oh, that guy's good.

[00:50:47]

No one did it last year. I think both of these guys do it this year. And how does it happen? Consolidation of targets. These are the two best weapons in the offense. When they played together, they both were on pace for over 140 targets each. That'll get it done. They are a dominant pair. What was this?

[00:51:06]

There's the one clap.

[00:51:07]

One clap.

[00:51:11]

Okay. All right.

[00:51:12]

Yeah.

[00:51:12]

No.

[00:51:13]

Now you're happy. It was one person fantasy.

[00:51:16]

Players trying to decide who is going to be the one. They're both going to be wide receiver ones this year. And even though it goes against everything that I believe and want to believe as a cardinal fan, I have to acknowledge the Rams are back and they're winning the division. They're winning the division.

[00:51:35]

All right, pander bear.

[00:51:38]

It doesn't feel like pandering. The Harbaugh fans out there don't like it.

[00:51:43]

A new pander bear emerges from the shadows.

[00:51:48]

How does Los Angeles butt taste?

[00:51:51]

Taste delicious.

[00:51:53]

It does. I've been there.

[00:51:56]

All right, Mike, what do you got?

[00:51:57]

All right. Well, speaking of Los Angeles quarterbacks. Okay, once upon a time, Jared Goff, top five quarterback, and he's going to win the MVP of the NFL this season.

[00:52:12]

Whoa.

[00:52:15]

Oh, my goodness.

[00:52:17]

Motor City MVP. That's right. I appreciate garf, Jerry. I appreciate that.

[00:52:24]

The crowd.

[00:52:25]

Look, you can see beyond the stripes of your own team. That was your guy once upon a time. And seeing him have success, it's great. Look, Jared golf. The Lions have gone from meh, right?

[00:52:41]

No, I think they went from me.

[00:52:43]

Oh, yeah. Okay, well, I didn't go. My sound effects were not all the way back dated. Look, exciting. Upstart NFC north champs. Should have won the NFC championship. And they're putting it all together. Jared Goff, he finally does it. A magical season for both the Lions and fantasy football. When Jared Goff is. When he's got the suds after the game because he's shirtless. You know what's tattooed across that chest? Home and dome games, baby. Home and dome. Cause that's what he needs. Look, he's played 17 games at Ford Field the last two years. Do you know what his full. That's a full season of games. 17.

[00:53:25]

Yeah, you got it.

[00:53:26]

What? He has put up over 4700 passing yards and 43 passing touchdowns.

[00:53:32]

He should play only home games. What are we doing going on the road?

[00:53:35]

When we say Jared Goff dominates at home in the dome, that is not an understatement. Look, six of seven top twelve finishes. Last year they were indoors the dome. And this year, 14 of the Lions 17 games will be played indoors. That hair, the air conditioning, it will be flowing. The elements are the enemy of Jared Goff, but that's what he is. Inside. Look, last year, QB seven, 4500 yards, 30 passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns. We looked at top five quarterbacks since 2018 who are not mobile guys. That's why this is bold. To get in the top five. It is extremely difficult. Brady, Stafford, Rodgers, Matt Ryan.

[00:54:21]

Brady. Brady.

[00:54:22]

Brady.

[00:54:22]

Look, an average of 4700 passing yards and a td rate of six plus percent. Guess who averages six plus percent on his touchdown or on his passing attempts for touchdowns when he's indoors?

[00:54:37]

Jared Goff.

[00:54:39]

Dude. You got it. You absolutely nailed it.

[00:54:43]

Knew it.

[00:54:44]

Reminder, 14 of 17 games are indoors. The Lions.

[00:54:48]

Look, he just said that a minute ago.

[00:54:50]

Yeah, because I got to drive the point in, man. It's. It's a. It's a speech giving technique.

[00:54:55]

Yeah. So nice you say it twice.

[00:54:57]

Exactly. Look, right now, every Lions game, every Lions game has a projected total of over 47 points. The over unders are absolutely six sick for the Detroit Lions. Now, let's talk about MVP. Right? He's a quarterback. Quarterbacks win.

[00:55:15]

And you're the guy who says he's going to win the MVP.

[00:55:17]

That's right. That I am that guy, unfortunately. Like, he's a quarterback. Check. Eleven years in a row, a double digit win team. I'm gonna.

[00:55:27]

That's gonna happen.

[00:55:28]

I'm gonna check that box off for him. And look, the Lions are gonna lead the NFL in scoring because. Did you hear this part? 14 of 17. No. Look, like, in all seriousness, it really matters to Jared Goff that he's playing indoors and hit like, this is not anti Jamir Gibbs by any means. Jamir Gibbs as an elite pass catching weapon. This team can be high tee because of their coach. And yet that dude up there, Dan Campbell, guns Mahoney. He respects the pass. Like, Jared Goff is going to put up great numbers. And I'm calling for an outlier season. I'm calling for a top five finish and the league mvp. Thank you.

[00:56:16]

Was he in? Out of curiosity? I don't know this answer. Was he in my guy consideration?

[00:56:21]

No. Because this is called a bold prediction. This is not called a prediction.

[00:56:28]

Okay. Okay. There's the bold. Got it.

[00:56:31]

All right.

[00:56:32]

Why don't you take it down a notch?

[00:56:34]

Yeah.

[00:56:35]

I will tighten up them cheeks.

[00:56:38]

It's called a bold prediction. However, this is one that I sadly actually believe in. So I will go so far as being bold and call this a prediction. No. Josh Allen goes from hero to zero.

[00:57:03]

Yeah. That's not going to come back to bite you.

[00:57:05]

This is a really, really hard case to make against Josh Allen. I mean, over the last four years, Josh Allen was the quarterback one, the quarterback won. The quarterback two, and then the quarterback won. So you're like. And he's drafted as the quarterback won. Now, he should be as a hero in most people's rankings. He's the quarterback one. I mean, there, there's, there's. It makes sense. He is a great passer and he is mobile. He has a lot of rushing upside. But I want to go over a couple of things now. This bold prediction of hero to zero is really mid year. We talked about earlier how players often have a great start to the season and a bad finish. Look at Patrick Mahomes last year. He was unbelievable. The first half of the season, he looked like he was going to be winning everybody fantasy championships. Him and Kelsey were on fire. How many people had Patrick Mahomes last year? Did you draft Patrick Mahomes I see.

[00:58:03]

People cover their eyes.

[00:58:05]

Raise your hand if you go crying, raise your hand. You won a championship with Patrick Mahomes last year.

[00:58:12]

We got one over here.

[00:58:14]

Two people in the world.

[00:58:15]

Three liars. We have three liars in here. Incredible. I mean, my point is like, he was terrible at the back end of the season and he's the greatest quarterback on the planet. This isn't to say Josh Allen isn't good. It's to say his season, his setup is going to work against him at the end of the season. I don't even mind drafting him. I would draft him where he is at ADP, but I'm going to look to unload him for value. Here's why. The first six weeks of the season, he's the quarterback.

[00:58:45]

Six.

[00:58:45]

The rest of the season is strength of schedule. He has the easiest schedule. He starts with the Cardinals. Yeah, baby.

[00:58:51]

Yeah, that's pretty good.

[00:58:52]

The end of the year is brutal. It's the 26th schedule and the fantasy playoffs is even worse. But let's go over his setup for 2024. He has a new offensive coordinator midway through last year and Joe Brady. Joe Brady, historically, we've brought this up a couple of times. Joe Brady has been in the NFL a lot and he always ends up getting exposed. Now, he didn't have time last year. It was great. They won a lot of games. But if you look at him as a passer with Joe Brady weeks eleven through 18, he went from a 70% completion percentage passer down to a 61% passer. He went from a touchdown pace of 32 touchdowns down to 24 with Joe Brady 40.

[00:59:33]

Richardson's dreaming of that computer percentage.

[00:59:35]

4400 yard pace to 4100 yard pace. If you're drafting him as the quarterback one and he finishes as the quarterback five, that's an l. Yeah, that is. It's not going to work. You have to have someone like how it's been lately, who's been lapping the field and you're going to say, oh, Josh Allen will be fine. But it's not that easy. You have someone who lost so many of his targets. Stefan Diggs is gone. Gabe Davis is gone. They can be the butt of jokes. We could say Stefan Diggs. No, but it still matters. You just talk about total vacated targets and it's tough. 284 vacated targets for the wide receivers is the most associated with any quarterback drafted in the top five since 2018. In that sample, 70% of quarterbacks with just 100 plus vacated targets failed to meet their ADP. And this is the first time ever that the quarterback won in ADP, which is what Josh Allen is, has all of his wide receivers drafted outside of the top 40. It's never been done before. Then you look at that end of season schedule and specifically the playoff weeks where he plays New England outside in cold weather.

[01:00:45]

Last year in New England and the fantasy playoffs, Josh Allen completed 50% of his passes. Anthony Richardson could hit that.

[01:00:53]

Yeah.

[01:00:53]

Zero touchdown passes. And then in week 17 in the championship, it's the jets. Like, he's not going. I really do think he's an okay pick, but the second half of the year, there is a, an easy and obvious path for him to be, let's say, the quarterback. Eight.

[01:01:10]

Why are you so mean?

[01:01:12]

Yeah, I think something happened in my heart. So mean. So look, I mean, Josh Allen's great player. I think he'll figure things out. I mean, he had 15 rushing touchdowns last year. If he repeats that, obviously he's going to be great. Now he's stupid. I would look stupid. This is a guy who's never had double digit rushing touchdowns in his career. It's not like Jalen Hurts. Who. Yeah, he had 15 rushing touchdowns. Why aren't we talking about that? Like Jalen hurts as a starter. Never had double digit rushing touchdowns. This was like, I have Josh Allen currently slated for nine rushing touchdowns, which would be the second highest of his career. And that's great, but that's a huge gap. And if you're drafting him, number one, he gets off to a hot start. I guess really what I'm saying is if you got him and he has the hot start, capitalize and trade him. That's what I will be doing.

[01:02:04]

Thoughts, Mike?

[01:02:07]

It's persuasive. It's persuasive. It's dumb.

[01:02:12]

Yeah.

[01:02:14]

Okay.

[01:02:15]

It, the hard part about fantasy football is you can't like seeing something that hasn't happened, right? And then, and then once the, once history reveals itself and we look back and you go, oh, it was so obvious, like, when you call your shot on something like this, you sound like a lunatic. We'll see if you're a lunatic here to zero the margin between geniuses in insanity.

[01:02:45]

How mad will you be if, like, the saints have a great year?

[01:02:48]

Oh, my gosh, I'll be so upset.

[01:02:51]

Are you gonna be if they, like.

[01:02:52]

Run the, if Josh Allen finishes as the quarterback one? I'll be, I'll be cheering. I'll be, I'll be happy. I will have forgotten this bold take, but if the saints are good. Oh, my God.

[01:03:01]

Oh, man.

[01:03:02]

I shaved my head.

[01:03:03]

I will shave my head back to this.

[01:03:07]

If the saints win ten games, I will save my head now on air.

[01:03:11]

Oh, no, that won't take long.

[01:03:14]

Yeah.

[01:03:14]

The only problem with me saying that is now people are rooting for do this out. I don't like that.

[01:03:19]

To shave your head, that's just like a, like a light breeze, right?

[01:03:23]

Right.

[01:03:23]

I just.

[01:03:23]

I just knocks them all out.

[01:03:24]

I use a towel and I just scrub hard, then it's gone.

[01:03:28]

You guys want to do some mailbag?

[01:03:29]

Oh, yeah, we do. Y'all ready? Y'all ready for the drop?

[01:03:38]

Mike, you getting them ready?

[01:03:40]

Can we get some lights? Can we get some lights on the house?

[01:03:43]

All right.

[01:03:47]

Mailbag. That was an all timer.

[01:03:53]

That was outstanding.

[01:03:55]

It was harmonized standing.

[01:03:57]

All right, we're gonna do some live mailbag here on the show before we give away this beauty.

[01:04:02]

Oh, no. Is that a papa Josh? Call out. Don't do that.

[01:04:05]

No, we don't. Papa Josh doesn't need any attention.

[01:04:09]

Oh, man.

[01:04:12]

All right. How you doing? What's your name? Carlos. Carlos, what do you got for. Good evening, gentlemen.

[01:04:19]

Good evening.

[01:04:19]

Is in a dynasty rookie draft, how do you decide between best player available and positional need? Did you hear that?

[01:04:28]

Yeah. That was in a dynasty rookie draft. Best player available or position of need.

[01:04:35]

How do you make that decision? What is the differentiator for you?

[01:04:38]

I mean, I can tell you from. Maybe, look, maybe this is just my experience.

[01:04:43]

It is not, Mike.

[01:04:44]

But many years in the first round, I have gone, I gotta get this running back. I got this position. I am so shallow. Yeah, sure. There's this, what, top five NFL draft pick, Jalen Waddle. Sure. But. But you know what? I really need a running back or I really need a quarterback, and it has been a disaster each and every time. Time in dynasty, you got to follow the money. Look, there's just. It's all about probability. Of course, not every first round wide receiver is going to be a hit. We know that. We've seen the NFL long enough. But the probability of a first round wide receiver being awesome in the NFL versus a bust for fantasy football, it's a good bet to make, and so it's. And then in the long term, once that player turns on, there's so much more valuable than this. Like RB. Two on your bench.

[01:05:45]

I just think the burn hurts more when you feel resigned to take a position versus the players that you believe in.

[01:05:52]

Never.

[01:05:53]

If it does work out, okay, it worked out. But if it doesn't, you know, you made the mistake at the time, because you wanted. You had a conviction about another player, but you felt like you had to fill a gap.

[01:06:02]

I never. I never do it anymore. I take the best player available on the board, no matter, regardless of position.

[01:06:09]

Team needs are obviously very, very important. There's a devil. They are. They are the devil in the sense that, like, I mean, I've done this. I drafted Trey Sermon way too high because I was desperate for running back. You drafted Royce Freeman way too high because you were. You were desperate for a running.

[01:06:24]

I drafted nobody because I had no picks.

[01:06:26]

When you're saying, do I draft team need or best player? We're just talking about running back. We're just like, I need a running back. And so it's like, do you overdraft them? And I promise you, this. This is the real takeaway. A bad running back will never be a good pick. I mean, that's just the truth. Like, if you draft a crappy running back, it's not going to help your team. So. So don't do that if you don't believe in that player, if you actually don't believe in them, don't push them over a wide receiver. You believe in it. It won't work. In the end, best player available is the way to go.

[01:06:56]

Always.

[01:06:56]

I've never made a draft. Mistake.

[01:06:58]

Next question.

[01:07:00]

You can't make mist.

[01:07:01]

I've never been in a draft.

[01:07:02]

You miss every shot you don't take.

[01:07:04]

All right. Bonjour, guys.

[01:07:06]

Bonjour.

[01:07:07]

Bonjour. This is buckwheat from Germany. All right.

[01:07:11]

Way on the street.

[01:07:12]

Hold on, hold on, hold on.

[01:07:14]

Shout out to my dy. Okay.

[01:07:17]

Like, did you come here just for the show?

[01:07:20]

Yeah, flew in yesterday. What time is in Germany right now? 06:00 a.m. all right, my way up.

[01:07:26]

Make some noise.

[01:07:28]

The man from Germany.

[01:07:30]

Yeah, I'll do it with.

[01:07:31]

Thank you. With the crowd control. What's your question, my friend?

[01:07:35]

All right, so do you guys have, like, any weird rituals or superstitions that you swear help you win your week?

[01:07:43]

Do we have any weird superstitions or rituals?

[01:07:46]

We do, yes. Yeah.

[01:07:49]

There are things that have developed over the years. There.

[01:07:51]

There are things that exist in this world, in the metaphysical, and one of the things, they work every single time.

[01:08:00]

Yeah. One of the things that has happened over time, for whatever reason, is that oftentimes, specifically Jason and myself, because we.

[01:08:09]

Had this divisional rivalry for years, insufferable.

[01:08:13]

And the second the week starts, for whatever reason, we will, like, if something goes wrong, one play one moment will congratulate the other person on the victory instantly.

[01:08:24]

Yeah.

[01:08:25]

And sometimes we've taken that to, like, a pre congratulations card or gift.

[01:08:29]

I have. I have. I have gotten a card and put money in it because no one wants to get. Don't give people cards without money. Okay. Don't do that. That's. You know what I mean?

[01:08:38]

That's not gonna get you a win.

[01:08:39]

No, you gotta open that card. You gotta have money. If it's like a birthday or a victory card.

[01:08:42]

Yeah, I've gotten a card before the week began. Like, congrats on your victory this week with a dollar 20 bill inside.

[01:08:48]

I find. I really do find this. And then this is anecdotally, scientifically proven, that people that talk a lot of trash the week leading up to a matchup, say, the biggest loser who's here and is named that for a reason, you freaking loser. They end up losing. But alternatively, if, like, when I went up against Brooks in the championship matchup instead decide to dote on him and buy him pizza delivered and give him gifts.

[01:09:22]

Did he buy you a pizza?

[01:09:23]

He didn't, and I won. So treat your opponents. You talk all that trash post victory. Okay, don't hear what I'm not saying. Be a monster, but wait until you're a victor first.

[01:09:37]

Kill him with kindness.

[01:09:37]

Kill him with kindness.

[01:09:38]

And pizza.

[01:09:39]

And pizza.

[01:09:40]

Pizza. Yeah.

[01:09:41]

Thank you for coming to the show. That's.

[01:09:43]

Give it up.

[01:09:44]

Bonjour. Next question. You're not.

[01:09:53]

What's your name? Jose. Jose.

[01:09:54]

Jose. Oh.

[01:10:02]

I was missing it.

[01:10:03]

Yeah, I'm pretty much got the.

[01:10:05]

Yeah, get up right now. Shout out to the toad clan. I just want to let you guys know.

[01:10:10]

So my question is, if you only.

[01:10:11]

Got to keep one my guy, the.

[01:10:13]

My guy is my guy, who would it be?

[01:10:15]

Okay, all right.

[01:10:16]

Keeping one my guy of the three my guys. The my guys, I guess. Yeah, maybe cop. It's sneaking.

[01:10:22]

Wait, you didn't make me do that, right?

[01:10:24]

No, no, I can jump in first because I know it's for me. It's Kyler Murray. I just might. My faith that Kyler Murray is going to come through for fantasy football. A smattering of applause. Thank you so much.

[01:10:38]

I Tyler managers.

[01:10:40]

Like, I really believe in Kyler where, like, I mean, I believe in all of my my guys. But certain players carry higher risk than the others. And Kyler to me is. He is in that perfect spot of low risk, incredible reward. You boo. You're gonna be booing when you're playing against Kyler Murray. So that's my, my guy.

[01:11:03]

So I completely understand that. Right. We always have different levels of confidence in our, my guys. And sometimes we're just really sure of one or two. And then when we're searching for others. My, my guy. Yes, my guy.

[01:11:18]

Yeah.

[01:11:18]

I'm gonna go with Devon a chan and, but it is, it's not because I have extreme confidence. I am confident, but I'm much more confident in the, the floor and ceiling outcome of like, Isaiah Pacheco. I don't, I don't think he's safer. But when it comes to, like, who's really the my guy? Yes. One. It's like I'm, I'm willing to take the risk. I'm willing to go and say, like, I don't want to be burned if I'm wrong here. And so I'm all in. And it's really one of those things where early in the off season I just went back and forth. Like there was a point where I was like, I am, I am too afraid to take this guy. And I really, I came around and I said I don't want to be the one because I believe in him. I think he's super talented. I watched him dominate last year and if he comes out and dominates, I will be so mad at myself if I didn't just follow my beliefs. So that's the, so he is like a, my guy. My God.

[01:12:26]

Are you doing Matthew McConaughey right now?

[01:12:28]

Matthew McConaughey did me. All right.

[01:12:31]

Yeah, my people, I think I. Can you guess mine?

[01:12:35]

Calvin Ridley.

[01:12:36]

Yeah, it's Calvin riding. Yeah, we have a whiteboard at the office and we start jotting names down and sometimes they have a little lock next to them when you, when you have a strong conviction. And Ridley's just been down there the all off season.

[01:12:48]

He really, he was the Evan.

[01:12:49]

I mean, for me, it was Evans with that conviction last offseason. So we'll find out if I'm done.

[01:12:54]

Yeah, back the, the curtain a little bit. He went to cv's, he bought nail polish and he wrote it on the board in nail polish. Yeah, super weird, but that's how he ruined our board. Get a new whiteboard.

[01:13:05]

Thank you, sir.

[01:13:06]

Thank you for your question.

[01:13:07]

Thank you for coming.

[01:13:09]

Me squashed.

[01:13:11]

Hey, ballers, how's it going? What's your name?

[01:13:13]

Good Chris from Jacksonville, Florida. What's up?

[01:13:15]

Yeah, got a keep trade cut nasty.

[01:13:18]

Boys edition for, you know, I like them nasty with Jerry, Judy Jacoby Myers and Hollywood. Oh, all right, nasty boys.

[01:13:33]

Oh. For the podcast listening audience and please turn around for our live audience. This man is wearing a shirt.

[01:13:44]

I got golden ticketed and I got tan.

[01:13:46]

Is wearing a shirt with Andy Holloway's face missing a tooth.

[01:13:53]

Yeah, you get both on it. I know. It's not happening again. All right.

[01:14:01]

Nasty Boys edition.

[01:14:03]

All right, nasty boys.

[01:14:04]

That is a bright t shirt. Yeah, that is bright.

[01:14:08]

Keep. Trade. Cut.

[01:14:08]

There's one dark spot on. It's where the.

[01:14:13]

Jerry, these are nasty boys.

[01:14:15]

Jerry, Judy, Jacoby Myers, Hollywood Brown.

[01:14:17]

Hollywood Brown is actually another one of those hot starters, but he's injured going into the year. Yeah, I mean, did you hear they starting to call the three whiteouts in Kansas City fahrenheit 451? Did you see that?

[01:14:29]

Real.

[01:14:31]

There's three numbers. Oh, Rice and Hollywood.

[01:14:35]

And have they read the book?

[01:14:37]

Like a great idea.

[01:14:38]

They might want to catch up on some literature.

[01:14:41]

Hollywood is nasty.

[01:14:44]

Yeah.

[01:14:45]

Jacoby Myers. Like, if you. If you already think Devante's risky, Myers with those quarterbacks. Nasty.

[01:14:52]

Yep.

[01:14:52]

And Jerry Judy has never not been nasty.

[01:14:55]

Yeah, this is gross, man. Why should get in here? Yeah.

[01:14:58]

You don't have any better questions?

[01:15:00]

I, you know, Hollywood is the. Is the clear best player of this group, but I feel like you have to cut him.

[01:15:05]

Yeah.

[01:15:06]

Because you're not drafting an in Judy starts.

[01:15:07]

I think Judy's a better player.

[01:15:08]

Player. You think Jerry Judy is a better player than Hollywood Brown?

[01:15:11]

Yeah.

[01:15:13]

Based on what?

[01:15:15]

I think the opportunity is college film. Like, I just think Hollywood. We're already seeing the problem with Hollywood. Like, the last two years has been injury riddled. And then one play in, like, they get. At least they gave Judy the money and he's going to be on the field every play.

[01:15:30]

Yeah, Jacoby Myers is the best player.

[01:15:32]

This is nasty.

[01:15:33]

Okay, look, Jacoby Myers is the best player of this bunch. He's. Look, I fell off at the end of the year with Aiden O'Connell because.

[01:15:41]

We have three different answers.

[01:15:42]

We do. I am keeping Jacob Myers, but Gardner Minshew and that. That magnificent mustache will do enough for Jacoby Myers. And then I will trade Hollywood Brown and Jerry Judy is my cut.

[01:15:58]

I actually think I'm going to keep Jacoby Myers as well. Yeah, you are.

[01:16:01]

Because he's the best of the three.

[01:16:05]

Trade Jerry Judy and I'll call Hollywood because I. I didn't believe he was going to be good enough before the injury to draft a player who is actively injured going into the season. So I'll. I'll let someone else grab Hollywood and.

[01:16:18]

I'll be that guy that keeps Jerry Judy, despite everything he's ever done, hopes and dreams. All right, thank you for the question. No, thank you for the shirt, though.

[01:16:28]

That shirt was fantastic.

[01:16:31]

All right, we have one more big thing to do here on the episode, which is to give away a signed Cooper cup helmet and a signed Cooper cup jersey, which will also come along with this.

[01:16:48]

And we're gonna pristine auction for.

[01:16:50]

Yeah. Shout out to pristine auction and all the stuff that we've been throwing out and all the stuff that they donated for the silent auction for fantasy cares. So big friends of the show, here's the, here's what we're gonna do for the giveaway. We already gave it away because we threw a lot of stuff out there. And if you caught a hat, there is one hat that has a golden star under the bill. And if you have that hat, you are the winner.

[01:17:19]

People are checking the giveaway.

[01:17:21]

Everyone check your bill.

[01:17:22]

Do you have one?

[01:17:23]

You got it. You got the gold star.

[01:17:25]

The golden star. We've got a winner over here.

[01:17:28]

All right.

[01:17:31]

But we want the hatback.

[01:17:33]

Hey, a number ten. Number ten.

[01:17:36]

Congratulations.

[01:17:38]

No. Congratulations. No, no, no.

[01:17:39]

Hold on.

[01:17:40]

No. Stay in your seat. At the end of the show. You've just come up and we'll get you the.

[01:17:43]

We'll get you. So again, round of applause. Christine Aksham, can I get a round of applause for sleeper? I know a lot of you play on sleeper. They sponsored this event. They got this event going and appreciate everybody that participated in the silent auction. Ballers auction.com. you can keep bidding on that silent auction up till 11:30 p.m. tonight. And all proceeds go to fantasy cares.

[01:18:08]

Yes.

[01:18:09]

And so thank you to anybody that has done that. And thank you all.

[01:18:12]

Yes. Thank you. We love you, foot clan, you guys.

[01:18:16]

2000 shows. Ten years, 2000 shows. Thank you. Yeah. Glasses up. To the foot clan.

[01:18:24]

A toast to the foot clan.

[01:18:26]

Thank you all out there. We will be back in a few minutes to come out and do a live q and A. Anything you have, any question you have, fantasy or not, we'll be back out here in a few minutes to spend that time with you and Jason, I believe it might be time to pick up that t shirt cannon one more time. Thank you, everybody. Thank you.

[01:19:34]

Thank you for listening to another edition of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Don't forget to visit us on the web at www.thefantasyfootballers.com and follow us on Twitter at the ffballers.