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Now back to the show. It's called a sudden wide receiver for Denver Broncos, and you're listening to the fantasy football. To the fantasy football podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Now, welcome in. Hey, everybody, what a delightful day. Wednesday, August 12, 20, 20.
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Ultimate drafted outcome for the Utica dollar from every Utica goes to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. We're partnering with them once again in 2020 to help support St. Jude. And let's get into some bycel. Buy or sell presented by pristine auction. We have another wide receiver rankings show today and our bycel. Follows that theme, and we've Brooks has chosen three guys outside of our top 20 for today's Bycel segment. So buy or sell these wide receivers to outperform their current average draft position, starting with.
The man with the strange clavicle, Keenan Allen, yeah, a little bit, yeah, a little bit. That's not how an arm should look. Well, Matthew Betts, our injury guy, did post about it on Twitter and he said, don't worry about it. Yeah, we're referring to Keenan Allen on Zoome on Hard Knocks, which was. It's like the equivalent of the wide receiver with the fingers that are all bent the wrong way. This is like taking it to the next level.
We know it's not supposed to look like that is shoulder grew something special at his current average.
Our position is the wide receiver. Twenty one.
Will Keenan Allen outperform that ADP buy or sell Keenan Allen might be the absolute hardest wide receiver to rank this year because he's OK, he's a great player, he's an elite route runner. He deserves volume, but he he has to see that volume. And aside from, like, I think his rookie year, you know, he was hitting hitting off big plays. But since then, it's just been he needs volume. And will he actually get that if it's Taylor is the quarterback or if it's herbut at quarterback and we well, we just don't know.
I currently have him two ranked two spots behind his ADP. But like his range of outcomes is, he's a great guy. It's wild to me like he could. Could he be a top world wide receiver?
Yeah, it's not without the realm of possibility. I mean, if if Tyrod Taylor ends up being the starter for the whole season, which I think is a realistic outcome, looks OK.
If that were to happen and Keenan goes a little bit deeper and isn't just the guy he could finish there.
I don't have that happening. Mike, did you sell or did you buy? I passed it over to Jason.
This one stop. I'm going to sell I, I, I project that Herbert will get on the field at some point. I think that the deep threat will stay. Mike Williams, this is not Bycel Pass. No, no, no. I'm I'm selling Mike. Yeah, come on, Mike.
I just I set him up with an incredible argument. I laid out all the sides of it and I was making or nothing. I was making it way easier for Jason.
And he has brought this up in the past. But I want to bring the specificity to it. Larry Fitzgerald, in the middle of his prime, obviously great run a great hands best, you know, the second best wide receiver of all time in the middle of his prime after finishing fantasy wide receiver five and well before coming back with, you know, three in a row, top twelve years when he had bad quarterback play, he was the wide receiver.
Thirty seven, seventeen and fifty two in back to back in his prime in his prime. Well here's the thing here to seventeen in there. Here's a spoiler alert. I'm going to buy that all three of these players outperform their ADP. The reason that they have this ADP is because I'm not going to know when they're going to do the damage. The Tyrod Taylor factor with Keenan Allen. I am not confident that Keenan will be a consistent fantasy output.
He will ball out because he's great.
The other two guys on the list, Julian Edelman, a wide receiver, 30, Michael Gallop at wide receiver. Thirty two. I think all three of these will outperform their ADP, assuming they don't get hurt. Do I think I'll be able to predict when it happens? No, I don't have confidence in that which. So would you draft them at their ADP? You're on the clock. You're right here at their average draft, you know, value.
Would you put them on your fantasy roster?
I mean, it's hard to look at Julian Edelman, who finished as the wide receiver 10 last year. Michael Gallop, who finished a wide receiver twenty two last year. Look at them in the seventh round and say, I'm not going to draft them. I mean, sure. I mean, those names are going to be hard to Keenan Allen is going to be hard to pass up in the fifth round when I'm staring down that name versus somebody else.
That has been less proven.
But yeah, I mean, I draft all of them at the draft position.
I think the only person that I'm going to draft at the draft position is Michael Gallop. If you look at the situation of all three of these guys, it's gotten worse for Adleman, gotten worse for Keenan Allen, which is why they're lower. But for Michael Gallop, I don't believe his situation's gotten worse. He's coming into year three, same system, same quarterback. Now, perception is that it's gotten worse because KD Lamb has come in, but I don't think that hurts him right.
About the Blake jawin target Hogg. Well, I mean, you lost Jason Witten and you lost Randall Cobb. Eighty three targets. Each one is going to get his I hope he gets eighty three targets and a week. Yeah, it's Yarwood seasoned.
Yes. It's only when you're buying as Michael Gallop in terms of drafting Mike I, I'm willing to draft all three of these guys.
I mean, Keenan Allen, who's three straight years as a top twelve wide receiver, I get it. You know, bringing up the the the comp, Larry, look, Taylor is an adequate quarterback.
It's not that he is bad at all. It's it's the volume. Would the volume get there?
Well, is he willing to check down a little bit more to to keep his eyes downfield with our running?
Because that's part of Taylor's game. That's why he's good at doing what he what he does. So this is not Derek who is down this road.
And now, Sam, he's proven to be inconsistent forever. But Sammy Watkins was a top fifteen wide receiver draft capital wise when Tyrod was there and destroyed People's Fantasy League. Yeah, Mahomes can't even get Sammy Watkins to do anything. I am Taylor Cam. I am glad you bring up the fact, though, that the comp to Larry isn't completely fair because this isn't an atrocious quarterback. Yes. So we don't know where he is right now.
I mean, the last time we saw him out there, he was not great. He was not great for Cleveland. It has been a while. We know three thousand yards is probably the peak of what you'd get from Tyrod Taylor. So, yeah, those are the question marks. It's funny, though, that you you selected the guy who finished wide receiver twenty two and not either of the guys that were in the top ten last year. If they were to take a step back significantly, maybe they'd be at twenty two.
But I mean arrow up versus arrow down. I look to the future my friends I gallopers an arrow sideways for me.
I'm I'm I'm I'm with with Gallup, and I got apparently a judge, you're going to get him everywhere then? Yeah, I'm with it and I'm with Julian Edelman, too. I like Kim. I believe Kim is ready to go. And the last time we saw a healthy Kim, he was a different quarterback. He was an accurate quarterback. And Julian Edelman is coming off the most yards of his career. He.
Look, injury risk, absolutely, but as my wide receiver, two or even three, I'm with that we could have bought or sold like 10 question marks per player for each question that was buy or sell brought to you by pristine auction recently auctioned.
Keenan Allen signed. Jersey went for seventy seven dollars. Michael Gallop signed. Jersey went for seventy two dollars. They got Phantasy Week starting tomorrow, which is an auction dedicated to active fantasy football players. So they're building out something special for you.
Nice. Very nice. Which means that Blake Darwan jerseys will be available. That's likely. They made more than one pristine auction. Dotcom used the code ballers get a ten dollar credit towards that first sports memorabilia purchase. We don't have any news& notes we're going to get into on today's episode. We have the wide receiver rankings part two today. I will. I know both of you watched hard knocks last night. I saw five minutes of it before I fell asleep, tried to fall asleep, and I saw enough to see, you know, Anthony Lynn tell everybody that he had covid.
And from my understanding, most of the episode was dominated by that storyline. It was.
What was your reaction to the episode? And my reaction on was actually optimism. I mean, we're all inundated with covid news nonstop. Never heard of it. So I get the fact that people, when they're watching it, they're like, oh, here we go again. More covid news. But it look at the NFL. They're showing you what the NFL wants you to see, of course. But they really do look like they are taking the steps that they can take and they can control.
Obviously, they're going to be on the field, running into each other, breathing on each other, spitting on each other. You can't prevent contact then, but all the other times they're working on it. Man, I love seeing McVay up there saying, guys, we got to be better at this. I need to be better at this. Please hold me accountable in there. The fact that that Lynn jumped on that ZO meeting at the beginning of the episode said, I can't promise you, you won't get it.
I got it. And everyone's like, oh, OK. Now I now I know someone who got it. And hearing Anthony Lynn really talk about getting the virus saying, you know, I'm I'm used to fixing the problem and then I got infected and now I'm part of the problem. So it was like seeing the man, Anthony Lane. It's just it was it was refreshing. It's always refreshing to see these players as human beings, because that's my favorite part.
But your thoughts are way deeper than mine, because my favorite part was watching as per the usual. Jason, my my favorite part was watching these. Just I know you're unbelievable. These guys are the strongest. You Aaron Donald with his shirt off. Well, no. Yeah.
Oh, my goodness. That is that's not my problem. Or my my point here is watching them get the tests and worry about the needles and worry about the Q tips in the know. And they're all I want to see him go first. I love it. I love watching these. You can relate superhumanly well because I am being an athlete. Right.
I am like, you know, I know you guys look at me and go, that's a man that's that's a one percent athlete. It just it makes me feel good knowing that I'm not the only superhuman. We'll use the word superhuman that also has fears of things like needles and spiders.
So yesterday was the day that you jumped and hurt yourself because of a an ice cream wrapper?
That is correct. Yeah.
It's going to be interesting. I mean, the NFL or the NHL and the NBA has proven this incredible fact that if you don't have the virus, you can't get the virus.
Right. It's all about in either of those leagues. You've had negative tests that are negative tests. So if players are responsible, if more teams do these bubbles, you're going to have a situation where, yeah, I mean, they're colliding into each other on the NBA court and they're not catching the virus because they don't have it. So hopefully that's the case that we get in the NFL.
Wide receivers, but obviously wear your masks in the car. That is when you're driving by yourself. I don't judge people who want to mess up in the car.
That's fine. They're just so comfortable. I judge them all right.
Number 11, Adam Thielen our consensus. Where are we going? Brooks Top 20 24 today maybe.
Yeah, you're right. All right. Number 11, Adam Thielen.
Fifteen on my list. Eleven on Jason's, 13 on Mike's. Injury plagued season, no more Stefon Diggs coming off of a number 10 and number seven finish in twenty seventeen of twenty eighteen. And, you know, this is a team that made a huge transition last year to being a very low passing volume team, this is Dalvin Cook's team last season. Felin finished at sixty one, like I said, injuries throughout the year and really hurt fantasy owners really left some burns because he tried to come back in week nine against Kansas City and scored zero points.
A lot of people started him there.
He tried to come back and weeks 15 and 16 when he finished. Sixty third in one hundred and twelve. Maybe you gave people started him by then. Yes.
Learned your lesson. But you guys are both pretty optimistic about Adam Thielen having a bounce back in twenty twenty. He was, he was great up until the first injury through those first six games he had three hundred ninety one yards and six touchdowns. And yet look it's a low volume offense but sixty three receptions and over eleven hundred yards. That's what Stefon Diggs had last year, that's what Adam Thielen does not have to compete with anymore. Now it's either first round pick Justin Jefferson or someone else like it's it's not one anyone B who's who's the man for the Minnesota Vikings.
It's Adam Thielen and he if you're watching him play in those first three games, he hadn't lost anything. He just, he suffered an injury and couldn't make it back to health. So I'm still in on feeling that, that I really I would love to draft the one in the third round. Yeah. I'm, I am in on a deal and here's why. Three years ago, he was a top ten wide receiver. Two years ago, he's a top ten wide receiver.
But then last year they changed to being a run heavy team that passes the ball far less. And before he got injured through the first six weeks, he was a top ten wide receiver. So the only time we've seen him healthy on the field, he's been a top ten wide receiver. He's not over the hill, you know.
You think I think last year's numbers were more deceptive, though.
You're saying that because of the touchdowns. But what I would argue is that the volume coming down and being a defense and run first team is going to make the efficiency your passing maybe near the goal line, more more touchdown opportunities purpose then than what it was. But here's the the slight argument I would change from the just efficiency. Only Minnesota's defense has to be good to run the ball. They have to be in, you know, I mean, that's just you can't just run the ball highest in the league when you're down.
It's it's impossible. Minnesota's defense is no longer great. I believe that this year Minnesota's defense is going to stink. I based that on the fact that they've lost a lot of their good players and at the second half of last year, they stunk. And if you look at the pace between Kirk Cousins first half and second half of the season, he was on pace for one hundred more targets in the second half than in the first half because he had to.
And that's my thing with the Vikings, I, I know they want to be defense and run and they're going to do everything in their power to run the ball. And I think they'll be good at it because of Koops. But at some point, I don't think they throw as little as they did last year.
Yeah, the Adam Thielen peson receptions, which is why I brought up the deceiving numbers. He was only on pace for sixty receptions through the first seven weeks. So those weeks, even though he was putting up fantasy finishes, he scored in all but two of those weeks, which was a little bit like the end of the year for Cooper Kupp when you didn't see the passing volume. Sure. And so I think he's a little bit more touchdown dependent than we think and there's a little bit more risk.
That's why I'm a little bit lower. But he is the guy. He's the guy.
I don't think one hundred and thirty targets are going to come his way again myself.
That's that's fair because I you know, when he was living the huge target life, that was a different offense. But I think at the end of the day, he's still a great wide receiver. Who's the clear one for a team that is going to have a pretty good offense. And so that's, you know, for those reasons, Shark Tank, I'm in ok Cooper Kupp OK Cooper Kupp at number 12 just brought him up last year.
Ninety four for eleven sixty one and ten on one hundred thirty four targets. He was outstanding. But the end of the year, we've talked about it a lot. The numbers came down for Cooper Kupp. His good weeks were touchdown dependent. He wasn't on the field as much as Robert Woods, and the team was running some too tight end sets quite frequently. It was funny on. Hard knocks last night, there was a scene when they were running to hurry up and Mikveh shouting, stay in the 12 step, stay at 12 and like, oh, oh no.
Well, and you brought up yesterday on the show to Cooper, Cupps had some struggles getting up off of press coverage. Cooper Kupp is a slot wide receiver. Yeah. And the thing for Cooper Kupp is he is a he is the go to target for this team inside the red zone. So again, hard to predict touchdown totals year over year, but Cooper caps one of those players that I put in the top five with the double digit touchdown capability year over year in a passing offense that passes the ball two hundred more times than Kirk Cousins does.
So if you look at Cooper Kupp, you look at Adam Thielen. I like two hundred more attempts. I like Sean McVay. That's why I love Cooper Kupp significantly higher than Adam Thielen. When you look at Brandin Cooks leaving regardless of the confidence in twelve personnel, where are you with Cooper Kupp Mike.
Because you have him way down. Yeah I do. I'm not confident at all over those. You know that stretch you talked about at the end of the season he was averaging five for fifty six, but he did score in all of them so he, he salvaged his, his fantasy day. I just have I don't know what the Rams offense is going to be. I lean more that they trading away. Brandin cooks the emergence of Higbee and the hope for Gerald Everett that they will be running the the twelve personnel a bit more.
And that that not that that means that Cooper Kupp is is completely Whodini for for fantasy purposes. But he won't return on where he's being drafted in, in my projections. And maybe it was the ACL recovery at the end of the year, maybe it was a lot of things, but it did happen and it was it was very, very bizarre. The numbers you're talking about, Andy, four in reception perception, the numbers available. If you want to look at all these all of these things, when I bring up reception perception, it's available in the ultimate draft kit.
And it's Cooper. Kupp has never finished above the twelfth percentile in success versus man or press coverage like this. He succeeds because McVay puts him in great positions. He's six two. That's not the normal height of off of a slot wide receiver. That's why it works for him. But if there's no slot I have to watch.
Juju has seen success doing right size wise and that's in Juju is a slot wide receiver. And again, I'm not saying calling someone a slot wide receiver as a dirty word, it's just this is where you fit in the offense.
And Jarvis Landry says, Thanks love Jarvis. But so I have my concerns.
I probably won't be drafting Cooper Kupp, but I know you guys are all about it. Yeah.
In the fourth round right now. I do like Cooper Kupp. I believe in McVay, I believe in Kupp. I know that he has bad reception perception numbers against press. But like you said, what is McVay been great at doing with Cooper Kupp. Putting him in a position to win McVay is. You know I, I will say that I believe McVeigh is smarter football than me. I'm going to put myself. You're willing willing to go that far.
That's proud of you. Well, he's very smart.
How is he with needles in with the test. I'm sure he's afraid of them too, Andy. We're all human.
So but the reality is I trust the offense.
And while we saw the back half of the year, the lower passing for him, the lower targets, receptions, yardage, that was also where he was basically splitting time with Brandin Cooks. I think the absence of Brandin Cooks means that the you know, the twelve personnel will basically you're going to have four players of fantasy relevance receiving players. I think both titans will be relevant and I think Woods and Kupp are going to eat. I'm not too worried about the press on the outside.
Cooper Kupp hasn't been asked to do that a lot. Now, if that's what he's going to do, I think that's what he's going to work on.
He's averaged a touchdown every nine point three catches over a three year span. Last year was the wide receiver for for the first half and then wide receiver. Thirty three over the second half. He he's going to be fun to watch. I mean, I think Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, I have both guys in my top ten so I am planting a flag with that offense. Sure. And I've been asked on other podcasts, is there a player you have ranked low that you are concerned is going to make you look foolish?
And my answer is always Cooper Kupp.
I don't feel I'm, I don't feel like a complete and total conviction that Cooper Kupp is going to be a bust. That's just that I'm concerned and I'm not drafting him. All right.
Allen Robinson and number thirteen. Perennially undervalued. Yeah. Also perennially stuck with the wrong quarterback. Also true. Very true.
And we have some disparity here as well. I'm. Eleven makes it nine Jasons at twenty one, his current average draft position, by the way, I should have given that for Cooper Kupp. He's being drafted as the wide receiver. Fifteen, Allen Robinson's up at wide receiver twelve. So this is year seven for Allen Robinson. Lost the year right in the middle with the injury. But seven years of Blake Bortles in midstream risky for Allen Robinson so he doesn't get a lot of sleep.
Thoughts and prayers go out to Owen.
Could be boogied.
That's right. Buoyed by Nick Foles. Is that a Sam Bowie reference. Uh, no, not Sam Boone.
Oh I don't get your reference to Sam who he reference. First of all, I don't know what you're talking about. Like going back to Jordan's dress here. No, it wasn't a Sam Buie things that float on the water that, you know, that's like that's a turn of phrase, really.
I believe it is. OK, yeah. Well, we all learn things every day. I know what a bully is out on the water, but I've never.
And that is the boogie in which I believe this turn of phrase is based upon, not these. Sam Buie of the Portland Trailblazers cannot confirm. But but likely. But likely. Yeah. What does Boogie Booher.
I look it up and it's a Sam Bowie reference moving forward in the episode. Um, third, most targets among wide receivers last year one hundred fifty four targets is ridiculous. And he had a couple of seasons like that in Jacksonville with one hundred and fifty plus.
So I think I know, I know the, the reason the disparity in our rankings exists is based upon that number. It's based upon the belief that for Mike and myself that he is going to be the same thing. He's been, you know, that he was last year, which is a target monster. He was the original, by the way. Yes. On the show, the target monster. And that is a great wide receiver. And those things kind of just raise you to the top.
That does beg the question. We looked at, you know, someone like Keenan Allen. And we took him down a peg because of the different quarterback, sure, but we saw a really different Mr. Bysshe last year than the year before. Not sure who we're going to have this year.
So which one do you want? The one that he was great with or the one that looked promising? You're saying two years ago where he went almost into the playoffs and exactly, but Allan Robinson wasn't quite as great then.
I mean, he's I don't Robert, I want to ask you from two years ago, because I don't think Allen Robinson snapped percentages. I think they're going to mimic what they were last year when he played 16, when he was on the field 94 percent of the time. I mean, he needs to run. They need to run. No, Mitchell to Robiskie needs to run like he when he's running around, they can win games. When he's not, they won't.
He's just an unstoppable wide receiver.
So when you give, you give him the opportunity. I'm definitely the lowest here. I've talked about this before. I I'm not as confident as you guys in the target volume, but I did want to play a quick game, of course. All right.
All right. Here we go. This game's called Allen Robinson or Tyler Boyd. Here we go.
OK, this is data from the last two seasons. Twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen. All right. Yards per game. Who had more? Allen Robinson or Tyler Boyd. Tyler Boyd, Robinson, Handey, you are correct, it was Tyler Boyd. All right, a two year span. Tyler had a pretty impressive season. He did.
This is more about how these two gentlemen play the game yards per reception. Allen Robinson or Tyler Boyd.
That's probably not going to go.
Allen Robinson. Allen Robinson. It is Tyler Boyd. OK, now let's get to the fantasy, the meet touchdown. I don't know. Allen Roberts. Yeah. Welcome to that site. You're to blame for this segment all together. All right.
Allen Robinson or Tyler Boyd touchdowns in the last two seasons. Allen Robinson. Allen Robinson.
It is Tyler Boyd. All right. Here we go. Top twenty four fantasy finishes. Allen Robinson or Tyler Boyd. Yeah, this is going to be Tanner Boyd.
I don't play your game. Allen Robinson. My game is great. It is Tyler Boyd. All right. Bust games.
But exactly how Jason would play this game, which is all the answers, are his guys more bust games, Tyler Boyd or Allen Robinson? Probably Allen Robinson.
Jason. OK, I've stuck with one answer. Allen Robinson. Well, he's tied. They both have fourteen basketball. Right. And this is in a total of Allen. Robinson has only one fewer game. Twenty nine and thirty. So they've both missed about the same amount of games. This is the point. That is I now granted the outlook here. You're getting AJ Green back and Tyler Boyd's outlook for this season isn't quite as rosy. But I do think that.
So you're drafting Boyd over Allen Robinson? That's what I heard. I put my my game of Montgomery versus Todd Gurley. I'm drafting Montgomery. That was my whole point. This your whole point is you're just trying to disparage a man. One of these guys is being drafted as the 12th wide receiver and one of these guys is left for dead in drafts. That's my point. And I think that my real point is that two years ago, Allen Robinson, yes, he was coming off of an ACL.
So was Cooper Kupp this past year. There's no excuses there, is it? That is just being completely thrown out. And I, I think that the truth of fantasy is in the middle of the last two years. Brown Robert. Last year, I think Tyler Boyd was here 23 on Robinson was 11. It's interesting, I mean, it was a it was a good year for Allan Robinson, but they were a team that couldn't run the football.
Mr. Besuki struggled. The defense wasn't as strong as it was the year before when they were a shut down defense, which I think they you know, they obviously want to get back to that style of play that got them very close to, you know, a Super Bowl as opposed to last year style of play, which got them close to firing their head coach or something of that nature.
So, yeah, I mean, you you could be right. You know, 11 might be the ceiling with someone like Mr. Besuki, but what's the ceiling with Nick Foles or Sam Bowie if he doesn't start the season sealing his Super Bowl?
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Mike Evans comes in at number 14. I hate that, I hate it, I hate it. I hate it. It's my fault. And I hate my ranking. I don't like it at all. Good. Because I don't like it either. No, I mean, it's it's absolutely my least favorite coming clean right now. Oh, yeah. I mean, I, I want the truth to be known here for the foot clan that I don't like where I have Mike Evans.
I've got him down for a just over a thousand yards and eight touchdowns, but it puts him at my wide receiver. Nineteen and Mike Evans is not a good wide receiver. He's a great wide receiver. He has the record right now. Four consecutive thousand yard seasons is literally never not had a thousand yard season. He has an upgraded quarterback. I like Mike Evans. I hate my ranking. I just don't know how to get them up in my rankings.
Yeah, well, honest, let's surface some of the concerns or what you're getting. Let's you open up the package. And Mike Evans has sixty seven receptions last year. Eleven hundred yards, eight touchdowns, one hundred and eighteen targets. We know that he's a great wide receiver. We also know he shares the field with another great wide receiver who is at number five on yesterday's episode, Chris Godwin, who's also have you seen the level of hype that Tom, Tom Brady has been putting out on the Twitter?
Mm, I have not. He's become quite the hype master. It's it's practice highlights.
It's a this pass to Gronk, this pass to Evans, this pass to Godwin, two touchdowns.
And honestly, it's got me a little bit I mean, just like he just looks so Tom Brady, he's got a level of determination that is unmatched. I mean, you look at what makes players great at historically and it's just this concentration of well, and he's got it.
And he's getting me on the hype videos because I just saw him connect with Chris Gordon. How concentrated is he if he's spending all this time on social media?
Oh, that's his team, Mike. Yeah, that's the TV. Twelve tweets, TV, twelve tweets. But but you did have what your experience with Mike Evans last year involved ups and downs.
It involved disappearing acts even on a team that pass as much as they did, even on a team with Jameis Winston throwing as many touchdowns as he did. There were weeks where Mike Evans disappeared because he is not going to be one hundred catch type of player. He's going to be a down the field type of guy, which is something that now you can blame the weapons, you can blame the age. Tom Brady has struggled a little bit more getting the ball downfield.
Maybe he hasn't had the weapons to do it. He's good at it, but he didn't do it as often. Yeah, he didn't do it as often. He went deep just over 10 percent of the time compared to Jameis, who was nearly at sixteen percent of his passes. But Tom Brady had a passer rating over one hundred. And when he was going deep like he was, well, he picks his spot. Yeah. And and I mean, that's that was the system he was in.
This is once again, we have Bruce Arians system versus other player. What they have done in the past because last year was OJ Howard. No. Will they use it? And the answer was they keep saying they want to use OJ Howard, but they did not. But but Tom Brady I mean, we've seen other quarterbacks come in to the Bruce Arians system and then change how they play, like Carson Palmer, put up numbers that he had not put up in a very, very long time once he was in the Bruce Arians system.
So this I still believe in Mike Evans and Jason's rookie is Doodoo.
Yeah, no, it's tough because, you know, we saw when Aryans came to Arizona, they moved Larry Fitzgerald to the slot in the slot was a masterful weapon for fantasy production. And then, lo and behold, Chris Godwin proved that to be here. So it's the combination of the deep passing question marks with Tom Brady. Can he do it in the slot propensity of Tom Brady and the Arian system? That I think leads me to have this low of a ranking, but at the same time, Brady will take advantage of his best weapons.
He is smart. He knows when Mike Evans has a guy beat and he's got one on one coverage and he's going to put it up for him. And guess what? Mike Evans is going to get the ball. So it's one of those things where I will draft Mike Evans ahead of my ranking here. Look at the tier that he's in. Read the blurb that, you know, we write about him and get the context to the ranking because he's he's he's good.
And I do wonder this. This is somewhat anecdotal, but I'm going to try to find the research. I feel like from memory, the deep passing over the last couple of years for Tom Brady and Drew Brees has been much better in the first half of the year than the second half of the year.
I want to be able to back that up right now. It's. Just from memory, I'll try to research this after the show, but I'm wondering if that means Evans could get off to a stronger start than anticipated and maybe win in the second half of the year. James had ninety nine attempts last year. If you want to know why, you should question Mike Evans. There were four times you were happy playing him last year based on your expectations for you drafted Mike Evans to be great.
He played on a team that threw the ball more than almost anybody, had more deep attempts than anybody in football. Four times he finished inside the top twenty four. That would be the indictment. Five. Five times can I guess it's kind of good. No, it's fine, it's fine. He he went from but each one of those times, he was a top 10 guy. So he's a week winner. He's like, you know, we talk about Tyreek Hill, the fact that he he busts time.
Are you comfortable with him as your wide receiver one?
No, I'm not.
No, I'm not either one. Even you and Mike is the highest. Doesn't really want Mike Gibbons's is one and he's being drafted as the wide receiver.
I don't like the ATP. Yeah, he's not going to be on my team.
It leaves very little room for Marge. You know what?
Gronkowski is going to be a goal line threat. I don't say whatever you want about Rob Gronkowski. I can promise you Tom Brady is going to look to the one guy he's played with in the red zone a lot. Yeah, my ranking is going to save a lot of people here.
I'm your hero. Well, I mean, I like Mike Evans at a like where I've got him ranked. I'm like too low. But if you're telling me wide receiver eight is where I've got to draft him, you're paying for absolutely not. This has come full circle.
Mike Evans or Mike Evans want to play a game. D.J chart comes in at wide receiver fifteen on our consensus rankings, which is well above ADP. He's a fifth round pick twice on every one of almost all of our teams. Wide receiver, twenty by average out position. Mike Housum at eleven. Jason twelve. I am at eighteen, which has translated into me being a jerk hater, having him two ahead of his ADP. Look, this is still a tough situation.
Jacksonville, I saw a mock draft this morning. Do you know who went number one overall? Jacksonville drafted a quarterback and won overall in the in the twenty twenty one mock draft.
Makes sense, though, you know, if it's a push comes to shove situation, even if Gardner is OK, if your franchise is at the basement, which I'm not saying it will be, but that's the way the mock drafts have Jacksonville at the top for a lot of people. So if their defense is as bad as it is and they have the chance to draft a player that's graded out as maybe the best quarterback prospects or Lawrence. Yeah, yeah.
Trevor Lawrence, highest rated quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in twenty, you know, ten years ago. So what do you do? Do you stick with a six round guy that kind of was OK on a team that loses a lot of games?
If they have the first overall pick, they're going to take quarterback. Yeah, but but that doesn't mean this year. I don't think they're going to be the first overall pick. Gardner Minshew was five hundred as a starter. He was six and six. The defense is their defense was bad last year, too. Not this bad. Just saying if you win, you win four games. You're not the number one pick overall. But anyway, so back to D.J Chark.
He was avid seemingly out of nowhere, but he really was. And he was a second round pick. He had he's very tall, very fast in the in the mold of a younger AJ Green. And you paired him with Gardner Minshew. I love talk about deep passes, but Gardner Minshew had the best passer rating on deep attempts last year. Better than Patrick Mahomes, better than Kirk Cousins. And that part of that is because he has he has players like Chris Connolly and Chark turned into the number one receiver for Jacksonville.
And I can't believe that he's going in the fifth and sometimes the sixth round. We talked about this early, early in the off season whether or not we could make a breakout for our for our ultimate draft kit. And we decided we couldn't because he's already broken out, except not according to where you're drafting him. You're drafting him is the wide receiver twenty? That's not someone who broke up from weeks one to eleven. He was the wide receiver five.
Then he dealt with some injuries or maybe just, you know, regress to the mean, depending on what you did have an injury. He had an ankle injury for the final. Twenty five percent or so of the season. Sure. But, you know, players play through that, get better, get back. But here's the thing. He was legitimately good, statistically great. Josh Herm's Meyer from five thirty eight did this great new right up with a new metric separation overexpectation.
So it's basically how how good they are the player is doing compared to what most players would do in that situation. And Jarek's twenty nineteen. They charted the last three seasons. Jarek's last year ranked first among all players in that metric. He is a separate issue. So you talk about Minshew was good throwing a deep ball. Well, it helps to have the best. Sure. Separator down the field.
You can hear more on D.J Chark on the Fire and Ice episode last Monday, Mike made the case further. AJ Brown comes in at number six on our consensus wide receiver rankings. I have a thirteen Jason and seventeen Mike at eighteen. You are living a boom bust type of life with AJ Brown, but it was really, really boom from week twelve on last year. Just kind of took the fantasy world by storm and one one people a lot of championships that invested in AJ Brown.
The question marks around him have all been around what Ryan Tannehill will you get right, guys? It wasn't pretty with Marcus Mariota at the beginning of the year. Obviously, AJ Brown was a rookie. I kind of, you know, you get a complete free pass with rookie season plus Marcus Mariota. But with Ryan Tannehill, he was a monster, the targets went up, everything went up. Yeah. And AJ Brown, I mean, it took until about week 10 for the Titans to go, oh, maybe we should use AJ Brown the whole time.
And he was stupid. Tajai Sharp.
He was on the field for about 60 percent of the snaps up through that point, which is absolutely ludicrous. But I mean, over 20 yards a reception, that's also ludicrous. It's not happening again.
I can't point nine yards after the catch per reception. I just I think no one in football I cannot project those types of numbers for AJ Brown, but he is extremely interesting. This is it's funny. We have this clump of players, you know, like Mike Evans, a sketch guy. Yeah. AJ Brown, what's the ceiling for receptions for AJ Brown. Eighty on this. Oh, 80. Yeah. You think he can get to 80?
Well, you said ceiling 70. I think that's where he caps out it because we don't know if he's going to end up. Like you said, he was on the field 60 percent. If he's one hundred percent player, if he becomes the read from week one, I don't have him for that. But I think that's the ceiling. But even still, he's not a hundred. Like his best is best case scenario is never going to be a possession consistent guy.
He's going to be a little bit more boom bust.
Yeah, those those games last year, week twelve on is on a sixty six reception pace when he started to get the big boom games. But we have a small sample size AJ Brown, plain and simple. Sure. Very small sample size. I don't think the fantasy community has overinflated his ADP because we thought maybe that would happen. Tennessee had a run in the playoffs. I think it's been reasonable. So he's the kind of player that you love is your wide receiver, too.
He's a perfect too, especially if you have somebody a little bit more stable.
Yes, I was going to say that if you if you were able to get, you know, a Julio or even first round you take Michael Thomas, you get someone with that is one hundred reception guy.
Or what if you go wide running back, running back and Woods and AJ Brown. Oh yeah. I'll take it baby. Yes. Calvin Ridley comes in at seventeen. We all have him ranked at sixteen.
Oh we are clearly on team Calvin Ridley. Yeah. So his his ADP guys. Sixteen. All right.
So the world is on the exact same plane. Oh man. I thought we were like breaking news.
That car really is projected to be a breakout in fantasy football since nineteen ninety only eight wide receivers with their only eight wide receivers of seventeen plus touchdowns and sixteen hundred receiving yards in their first two seasons combined.
So those are names like Randy Moss, Odell Beckham, Marquese Colston, Larry Fitzgerald, AJ Green, Julio Jones who.
That's that's a list I would like. Moaning Now man. Hakeem like your next Chemonics. Yes, that's Butler.
Yeah, I was going Cardinals and Calvin Ridley, so he pretty much mirrored his rookie year.
I mean, statistically speaking he he scores touchdowns. He finished at twenty five last year but in thirteen games. So he's a little bit better actually overall and on a pace. And then he was number twenty in his rookie year so and he played a buzz.
It was very similar to AJ Brown in the sense that he wasn't on the field as much as you would have wanted him to be on the field until he had to be. But Muhammad Sanu is gone and Austin Hooper is gone. So this is this is you're trying to get the Chris Godwin this year. You're trying to get the guy that going into the season, you go, oh, I love him as a number two, but he has zero zero chance to be the number one for this team because, you know, Julio's there because Mike Evans is there.
It's almost hard to remember that last year it felt like I remember us saying like, well, he can't be the one because Mike Evans had been a dominant one. And now it seems like. Well, no, we could have seen you know, it seems impossible that he could be the one after this season, but I don't think that is impossible.
So that's the upside that you're hoping when you spin that sixteenth wide receiver pick on Calvin Ridley after they traded Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley was averaging six receptions and eighty two yards a game.
Like, that's those are those are big boy numbers, and I get that Austin Hooper was injured for some of those games as well. There's a lot of things at play when Ridley really started to take off last year before his injury.
But how many touchdowns do you have and projected for like this season? He put up 10 seven last year, despite missing three games. He has been a touchdown beast while he's someone's got to catch touchdowns that Julio refuses to.
I've got a bad some down I. I only have him down for six. I've got him for eight. Yeah. I was going to say over under of eight based on his how he's his pace has been at or above that push push.
But he, we know he has the ability to be a touchdown guy. He look he is also one of these elite route runners. I hope we're not breaking news. You're telling people about Calvin Ridley. For the first time, the fantasy world is on Calvin Ridley most vacated targets of any team. Don't forget, Austin Hooper is gone. He was a first round NFL draft pick for a reason because he's. Yes, a great wide receiver.
I honestly, I do forget that, like Calvin Ridley was a first round pick by a team when they drafted him. You went really you have guaranteed passing volume there. You just know that Matt Ryan is going to throw the ball a lot.
And Odell Beckham comes in at 18, Odell Beckham Junior finished at 18 last year. Oh, how he finished.
His ATP is 18 this year, finished at twenty six last year. And yes, his first three years in the league, six, five, four in Fantasy Finish. But the last three years have been rough, 83, 16. Twenty six, yes, there have been injuries. Yes, there have been injuries played through. Yes, yes, yes. We have excuses for Odel. But here we are, excuses are no excuses, three straight years of disappointment.
Look, if I'm grabbing, you know, AJ Brown or the back of someone in this range, this he's he's the Ronald Jones of my wide receivers. I was not high on him last year. I didn't you know, I was calling for the Browns to to be a bust. But I look at the opportunity here. You don't have to draft Odell Beckham in the first round.
You're getting him in the third round, the back of the third round as the wide receiver. Eighteen. There's nobody in this range that I think has the ceiling. The ceiling is the wide receiver one. He had a thousand yards last year, plenty of targets and was a complete disaster.
I still believe that is.
I mean, when he when he was putting up the five and four finish, he was getting one hundred fifty eight hundred and sixty nine targets last year. One thirty three. And you get Kevin Stefanski come in. And do you think that the target, the targets could be there in this offense for him to actually finish number one. I think they can be there. I'm not projecting it because we have him down here. I'm just asking. Yeah, I still believe in the talent of Odell Beckham.
And and Andy referenced the fire and ice. Or when did I talk about Odell Beckham? I don't know recently.
But anyways, so I'll make the case you all the episodes and find it really quickly. When I was researching for Odell Beckham, I came across a quote from December that I don't hear people talking about very much. But is Beckham, it talks about something happened to his body in training camp. And we're used to seeing players on the injury report week in and week out. You know, you you just if it's a patriot for sure.
Yeah. Yes. For the Patriots, for sure. But you just it's just a glancing blow. It's whatever is I see them all on the report all the time. But Odell Beckham was hurt. You watch the tape of Odell Beckham. And even with all the tumult that was going on with the team, bad played from Baker Mayfield like. O'Dell was not the same player that we have that we saw two years ago. So I, I make the excuse.
I'm I'm fine. I'm there. I know it's an excuse, but he was hurt. He has the ability to be a top five wide receiver. And to get a player like that at wide receiver 18 is it's wild.
The easy way to not go through the Odell Beckham experience in twenty twenty is to not draft him. So this is a law that would if you don't want to deal with it, like there are certain players that are in adventure, they're not.
This is not Julio Jones. We just talked about Julio yesterday. This is not Julio Jones adventure. Oh, at best. Yeah.
I mean, put on my fedora. Give me my whip. You're not wrong about those narratives, about the injury.
But we know unequivocally he has not done it with Baker Mayfield that it is about Baker, Stefanski, Beckham's health, Cleveland offense, Cleveland in general, because a little bit of a sure baker was bad.
His offensive line was much worse than the year prior and Odell Beckham was injured. Those are the way he gets those wise words. Those are the ways that I think there's opportunity for change where we know the offensive line is better. That's that's barring future injury. That's a done deal. I don't think Baker can be any worse than he was last year. So if he gets better because his old line is better and then if Odell is healthy, all of a sudden, you know, he turns one hundred and thirty targets into twelve thirteen, fourteen hundred yards and ten touchdowns to Hilton at nineteen, Juju Smith, Schuster at twenty.
And our consensus ranks, Hilton is still my favorite pick in all fantasy drafts. He is being drafted is the wide receiver. Twenty four in the back of the fifth round.
Which means I get Ty Hilton is my wide receiver to in any league I want show and I feel good about that because his historical look. Can I tell you something? Sure.
We did a mock draft last night for our League of record, me and my co-owner. Guess what, wide receiver. You got to.
I hear you're darn right. Yeah, that makes sense. I am at seventeen.
I mean, when he's played football, he's been a top twenty five wide receiver, so he's being drafted at his absolute basement with a better quarterback coming into this year. The questionmark. Yes, you could say it's all struggle with the injuries. Last year, historically speaking, he's played the majority of the time, sometimes hurt, but fantasy finishes have been inside the top twenty five every single season that he's played outside of last year when he played ten games and he got he was activated.
There was a little bit of a game when Dwight Hilton was not ready for camp. You don't you never like to see that. But he has been activated three of his first five games last year he was a top fifteen wide receiver.
So he was on he was on track to get it done. And here are the the differences between Jacoby Brissett and Philip Rivers. Jacoby only went deep forty three times. Thirty five percent of his passes were catchable. Rivers seventy nine times went deep in nearly forty two percent of his deep attempts were catchable. Philip Rivers, a sixty five percent completion percent passer Jacoby was sixty percent last year. Like you're getting higher higher fantasy point targets from Philip Rivers and you're getting more accurate targets from Philip Rivers.
Like I worry, you worry about dilators body. I worry about the player's body, if you could guarantee me to I hope is healthy as a horse the whole season, he would he would fly up my rankings like a colt.
Oh, healthy as a colt all season. Well done. But the reality the reality is it was soft tissue issues last year. It's a soft tissue issue this year. He's over thirty and there's no preseason, there's no training. I mean, there's you know, there's there's there's medical analysis that talk about worry for injuries, not having the same level of ramp up that these guys usually have. So I just have I have a you didn't pull out your tape recorder and pressed play on your AJ Green argument.
Did you know? I mean, I put them right in that boat, seven straight years of being a dominant player. And for me, it's the film as much as it is the fantasy finished consistency. He's one of the best wide receivers in all of football, one of the most refined, one of the most regularly winning downfield intermediate routes. Just needs a quarterback. I think he'll have one not that worried about the injury. Maybe you missed a game or two, but historically speaking, he's played the majority of them last year.
Forty four percent snap percentage in the games he played. So he's playing hurt. Last year was almost a lost season. Yeah. Four to hold it all together. So I just can't pass on the draft position. If you talk all these arguments I'm passing on to while and if he's costing me a third rounder. Yeah. I mean, this is like back of the fifth round.
I'm going to have him in every single league.
There is upside there. A little bit of risk, but that's baked into the ADP. So I think that is a fair argument.
Juju Smith, Schuster. Big disparities in our rankings here he comes in at twenty on our consensus wide receiver ranks, but Jason's got at 13. Make it twenty five. Warms my heart. I have met twenty eight, you fools, and his current ATP is very high. It's wide receiver 11.
So even Jason just made a face because he didn't realize he was below ADP. He assumed, based on the environment he's in, that he was below ADP.
But he's not has a lot of money for Burgum. You are asking him.
You're kind of you're boxed in, you're starting Joujou if you draft and where he's going right now, he's in your lineup no matter what, are you going to be happy? That's the real question. He last year was a mess through and through. Yeah, he was not great on the field. We've talked about his struggles on the outside. He is a slot receiver. He has a slot wide receiver. Yes. Now, Big Ben can fix a lot of things really, really fast.
And he knows how to utilize Juju in that slot receiver position. So that be ideal. That's the that's the nice scenario. You might end up with that number nine finish. You got back in twenty eighteen when he had one hundred and sixty six targets. That's a lot. Um, I don't think you're going to get that from Juju Smith Schuster and I think you have to pay too much.
I am surprised that his ATP is is still this high that people are still on him. But I am still on him because here's why. He's a great wide receiver, if you're going to tell me that, betting on the player, if you're going to tell me that last year and the fact that he was not good and that Dontae Johnson was, you know, better, and what are you trying to say? Are you trying to say Juju is somehow not a great wide receiver?
You watch his rookie year, you watch his sophomore year. He's a dominant beast of a man, a great ruler and a great hands. Great with Big Ben putting up fantastic fantasy numbers for two seasons. And then last year, the Steelers just were I mean, that we have to throw that season out from an offensive perspective. They scrapped and clawed and did whatever they could to manufacture wins. But now Big Ben is back in. Juju is still a great wide receiver.
You look at, you know, DeAndre Hopkins comes out and, you know, he's the number five guy in, you know, whatever fantasy in if you're going. Yeah. So in twenty fifteen, OK, he was the number four. He was great. Is his third year after a great sophomore year and then he falls you know in twenty sixteen has you know, pretty much a lost season stinks with a backup quarterback and people are like wow, he's not good, he's not great.
It was just targets. That was the narrative with Hopkins. Oh yeah. But Hopkins was great. Yeah. But this is not DeAndre Hopkins. No it's not his juju and he's great.
Well I'll make the identical argument I made going into last year when I told everybody not to draft dodger Smith Schuster. He had one hundred and sixty six targets. That's a lot coming into last year. I said, is he going to get more targets than one hundred and sixty six when he finished it? Number nine. No, there's no chance. Yes, he was being drafted ahead of number nine. There was no chance the volume was going up.
If he if his peak season that we've seen his number nine overall fantasy finish and you have to count on a bounce back and he's being drafted as wide receiver. Eleven to me, he's being drafted at his ceiling.
Well, you can't say that was his peak season because it's touchdown number was, I think, statistically his peak season. Well, he's got the that's his highest season ever.
You're saying that that is definitely his highest fantasy?
No, but that's not what you were saying. You were saying that that is his absolute peak.
One hundred and sixty six targets is the most he'll ever get in his career. Sure. Pick targets. But the touchdowns were down that year. That was the argument of why he was being drafted. But he's never had them up, right?
I never have seen him. That's all I'm saying.
Like we've never seen him. It's not like a bounce back is like Mike Evans had a down touchdown for Juju is a slot wide receiver, which by extension, a lot of times that doesn't translate to touchdown totals in general does for Cooper Kupp. It does for Cooper Kupp, but that's an outlier, not a norm. I believe that he can put up more than that. His touchdown number can increase from what he put up. I don't know if he'll get one hundred and sixty six targets and the questions of can Juju thrive without Antonio Brown being there to be Batman on the field and unanswered.
Still it's still unanswered. But for the people who are saying, well, anyone could succeed with Antonio Brown on the field they didn't like, it was there was the Antonio Brown Show until Juju showed up Juju, his rookie year. That was the most receiving yardage that the number two option had ever seen for Pittsburgh while Antonio Brown was the number one guy and he did that his rookie year. I will, Jason, that I think he is a great player.
But I also I'm not drafting about ever I will say this, I'm not, I'm not that is I believe in him.
I think if you draft him a wide receiver, someone, you could very well end up happy.
That being said, his risk is not baked in here at that draft cost. I was surprised early in the offseason. I said that he would be appropriately valued due to fantasy owners being wiser. I don't think he is being appropriately valued because the risk is not baked into his ADP. The risk to me being Big Ben, Big Ben's timeline of recovery and his age and having to come back if we knew Big Ben was Big Ben from two years ago, fully healthy.
Well, sure, but that's not the Big Ben coming into camp this year, and that's not baked in. So, you know, I do have a worry there.
And for me, we've had these situations where, like Deontae Johnson in Juju, Deontae Johnson is being drafted as the wide receiver. Forty three Juju is being drafted as a wide receiver. Eleven. I don't see a gap of thirty fantasy finishes spots between them.
So for me as he's just not going to end up on my team if he was wide receiver twenty twenty five and you got the upside a Big Ben coming back, I'd be like it's kind of like the Odell, it's just like Odell upside.
Yeah. If he was a wide receiver eighteen I would be all about that. I'd say who has that chance of the top five finish. He does.
It's just confidence. I don't have enough confidence to take him out at twelve. Yeah. Devante Parker at twenty one, Courtland Sutton at twenty two. Tyler Lockett at twenty three. AJ Green at twenty four. Talked about AJ Green on the Fire and Ice episode. Jason talked about Lockett on the fire. Nice episode. I will have one final comment here before we close the showdown. Twenty two Courtland Sutton starting to question my own questioning of Courtland Sutton.
That makes sense. I did that as well and I moved him. You moved? Yeah. You have him the highest of twenty one. I'm starting to. Starting to think that it might be a little bit rosier than I have believed before for Carol, and so he's just. If you put them in that place where he's unequivocally the number one on the team, which I think is the right thing to do, yes, then wide receiver twenty five looks like maybe a value.
I mean, last year there were struggles on offense. Denver struggled. Lock came out at the end of the year. No, we didn't see the sample size that we wanted to see of Slatten. Plus lock equals fantasy production. But it was a small four game stretch when you didn't see that. So I'm going off of that. He's so talented, but I've watched Courtland Sutton do great wide receiver. And historically, like I said, my argument for Michael Gallop, sophomore wide receivers that cross the eleven hundred yard mark historically is just a great hit rate, saying that this player is going to emerge and be excellent for years.
So this is like how Jesus talked about. He's just betting on Juju, even though you're in this mist where you can't see two feet in front of your face. I do feel that way about Courtland Sutton, but I'm just I'm willing to bet on that player compared to his historical cops. All right.
If you want to see all of our rankings, what are we doing next works? Are we on to quarterbacks or titans, quarterback ranking quarterbacks? So if you want to see all of our rankings, all of our in-depth player by player projections, each of us independently, we go through, we we start out, we adjust, we modify players every wide receiver, every running back one by one. And we are always tweaking and modifying in making adjustments based on the information that we have.
And those things are all in proportion to how those quarterbacks are going to produce for those teams in the offense is year to year and all that stuff's in the ultimate draft kit along with the video player profiles. If there's a player we didn't mention that wide receiver today that you wanted to hear us talk about, like maybe Maki's Hollywood brown.
You can go listen to the player profile and the ultimate draft, get it? Ultimate draft gay.com. That'll do it today for this episode of the Fantasy Football, and we will be back with you tomorrow. It's a long ways from now. We'll see you then. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy football podcast, join our fantasy football community on Join the Dotcom and follow us on Twitter at the footballers.