Alright. Read it and leave. You're not imagining that. That is an 1100 plus fall off in the Dow. In case you're counting, make this 10 days straight that the Dow has fallen.

And this time on news out of the Federal Reserve that rates are indeed coming down as they did today by another quarter point, but that might be it for a while. The Federal Reserve chief indicating, well, things are looking good enough that we don't have to go crazy with these rate cuts. So the expectations for a lot more next year, maybe not as many, maybe not as big. And for Wall Street, maybe not as robust a sentiment that this was a good time to be in the market. Today, it was not.

And in case you're counting with that 10 day consecutive decline, we have the markets now doing something they have not done in the better part of, well, 50 years when Jimmy Carter was president of United States. Much more on that. Let's get to what happened with Alan Nukman, the bull's eye option market strategist. Alan, at best I could tell, the Fed gave what the markets wanted today, another cut, but they seem to signal, don't get used to this. We might spread these out a lot.

What do you make of it?

Well, I think it's really just a a profit taking pullback. You can see we've been in a stair step market now for 2 years, and today's pullback is 3%. You know, yes, it's a big headline in points, but it's just 3%. And get to the Dow, unfortunately, the Dow was not a a good indicator of the market. The Dow being down 10 days in a row is mainly because the UnitedHealthcare is Right.

Up 20% in the last, you know, couple of weeks. And it's a it was a $600 stock. The way the Dow is priced, it's priced by share price. So that says that, UNH is more important, twice as important as JPMorgan, twice as important as McDonald's, Coke, Apple, Amazon, which is really not true. It's just the way that index is con constructed.

Alright. Now if we can just sort of step back and look at the big picture here then, Alan, what Jerome Powell seemed to be saying is, you know, look. I mean, the things are steady as she goes with the economy, which would be normally interpreted as good news. We've certainly seen it reflected in companies and how much they're making. And to your point, even with this 10 day sell for the Dow, the other averages are doing just fine.

The Dow itself is still up north of 50% on the year. Other averages, similarly doing well on expectations that things are gonna be really good with Donald Trump. But did the market get ahead of itself here? Is it is it is it over, replacing big bets on Donald Trump and what can or can't be delivered? We're gonna get into some of the division and fights going on in the house of representatives, and that's just among Republicans.

Is that sinking in?

Well, we're in a momentum market. The market had moved higher before Donald Trump, and the market most likely will move higher after Donald Trump. You wanna see how we react after these pullbacks. Again, it's only a couple percent, and it was only 2 weeks ago that we made all time highs in the S and P, the real measure of the market. And the Nasdaq made all time forever highs, just last week.

So there's a lot left. Powell has done a magnificent job. I know people are gonna argue with me on this. But, you know, you know, setting the markets up with his tough love. You know, when he talks, sometimes the markets use that as a an excuse to take profits, but then people use that as a buying opportunity.

So let's see what happens over the next couple of days or the next week and see where we stand. But I the fundamentals are still remarkably solid. And if you look at the 10 year note yield which people focus on, I'm an old school guide. So if there was a real concern in the marketplace, then stocks would come down and bonds would go higher sending yields lower. That didn't happen.

Right.

This is just profit taking. Presidents don't make markets. Presidents don't break markets, and this is just a pullback until proven otherwise.

You mentioned the tenure. I don't wanna get too arcane and wonky for for our our viewers here, but that is something that a lot of, you know, rates, mortgage rates, auto loan rates are are are paid to, and that is now hanging around 4 a half percent. T. Rowe Price, the big mutual fund powerhouse is saying rates are gonna go at least another point higher no matter what the Federal Reserve does because inflation threats are real. And I I'm wondering if you buy the thought that this is the market's way of saying those inflation threats are real enough for us to say the, president elects planned tariffs and some of this other stuff could boomerang.

Well, we've seen inflation come down dramatically. And is inflation was just not a US problem. It was a global problem, and we've solved that problem a lot better than everybody else. People may not like 2 a half percent, but 2 a half percent is a lot closer to 2% than where we were. And 2% has been the normal expectation.

I think we might have to guide that up a little bit. 2 a half percent is something that we can all deal with. We may not like it, but that's just the reality of the marketplace. And what I'm looking for is I think with the next administration, there's gonna be pressure to push rates down because that's gonna stimulate the comedy, economy. We all know that, pulpit pressure can have an impact in the markets.

I'm looking for the 10 year note yield to go below 4%, and then we could see mortgage rates back in the 5% level, and that would be very, very positive for real estate and for that part of the economy.

Alright. Let's see what happens, my friend. Thank you very, very much.

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