All you want to do is sit in a cafe and quietly enjoy this podcast when you can, I have it all Hemi, Demi semi half caf McClarty. Oh, and can you served in a macchiato class? Oh, give me strength.

Cut the nonsense and keep it real.

With Trebor, pick up a refreshing boost of Trebor Extra strongman's or a cherry trees of Trigo soft mints that pot Kenny show on news talk with Marter Private Network during current restrictions. Don't ignore your health concerns. Our expert team is ready to help. Joined now by Professor Luca Neal, professor of biochemistry at Trinity College in Dublin Luke. Good morning and very happy Christmas to you.

Yeah, same to you. Now we've got the good news and the bad news. The bad news. Let's start with first. There is no place on earth that is free of covid. Yeah, this is striking.

It's got to Antarctica now. This is one of the most remote places as you've just part of the Chilean base there. It's called the Bernat O'Higgins base. And he was a famous Chilean, as you may know. He was of Irish extraction, I guess, but they've had 36 cases on that base. They've tried really hard to keep it out, by the way, in all kinds of restrictions. But now that they've started about two weeks ago, two people got infected and that was 36, 26 in the army and 10 civilians.

And again, illustrates just how contagious this virus is in a sense, because but the best of it in the world, it's now got to Antarctica. And it's a grim no out fact in a way, but it's now all over the world. Basically, every part of the world has been affected by this virus.

Well, at least they don't have any difficulty isolating. That's why they were so isolated. And I presume it was people coming in, flying in with supplies and so on from outside that led to the infection, the catastrophic extremity.

They stopped tourists going there and they stopped lots of people going in and out. You know, they really restricted it. It must have been just one person on the. Exactly. Or maybe got a piece of cargo or something to trying to figure out exactly where it came from. It could have been someone had it and then they developed it a month later. There's disaster, which is interesting scientifically, but I would have been in that person chronically, you know, and trying to find out where it came from.

It just shows, you know, what on earth has escaped the virus. Really.

OK, now, speaking of virus strains, we know at the WHO, at Dover KALLET and all of that about the strain that was isolated and now appears to be the dominant strain in the southern part of England. But they have a South African strain as well. What do we know about that strain?

They do. It's very similar to the new one in the U.K. There's a couple of tiny differences between them, but they're quite similar. That's the first thing. And then the big question now. But is it more transmissible? That's that's still a theory, strangely. I mean, there's some evidence for that. And they're confident this might be the case. But as we speak, they're trying to prove that those two strains are easier to catch, basically.

Now, the evidence would be in favor of that at the moment. You know, I mean, for example, they're now infecting mice and hamsters and trying to test at one way. And then secondly, the big question is the change in those two strains is in the spike protein, as we know. And the spike is the bit that sticks into your lungs. And these two variants have a slightly stickier spike, is the idea that are going to latch more onto ACE to the receptor.

And there's reasonable evidence to support that.

But it's still strangely it's still slightly hypothetical because it could partly be again, human behaviour will be part of this, by the way, for the reason for it spreading. But it's a combination of the two, I guess.

Now, much was made of the allergic reaction to the Fizer vaccine in the UK when two people who normally carry epi pens reacted to it.

And now there's been a little more analysis of exactly what might make people respond to the vaccine in this way. What's the science?

Well, we've got tremendous news here, but in a way, one point six million people have never been vaccinated. With that Phizer vaccine isn't an incredible, huge number of people have never been vaccinated not to be in the US and in the UK and a couple of other countries, that there's massive new data on these one point five million people. And the great news is that the safety holds up. So this is a very safe vaccine. That's the first thing you may remember.

The trial was only 20000 people and that was safe in those. But of course, there's always a slight concern. If you got 100000, 200000, you might see one or two adverse events, as we call them. But it looks as if it's a really safe vaccine. Now, eight people have an allergic reaction at a one point five million. Isn't that amazing? So a tiny, tiny number. Now, contrast that there's been one point seventy three million deaths from this virus so far, remember?

So in other words, it's really good to vaccinate, obviously, an extremely safe. Now, the big question is, what are they allergic to? And it's a thing called polyethylene glycol.

Now, probably it's not antifreeze.

It is anti precisely. It's similar to antifreeze. Exactly. And and it's in the vaccine to stabilise it. OK, so they've added it in now. It's in many places. It's in shampooer, it's in toothpaste. You know, even laxatives, strangely have polyethylene glycol in them. So it's a well, well known chemical. And there's a tiny bit in the Moderna and the vaccine and it stabilizes it, as you might remember, that these vaccines, that the little fatty bags, basically with the RNA molecule in the fatty, the lipid bag, it's around the outside of the lipid, it's called regulation is the name for this, then this is a well-known thing and it looks as if a tiny number of people have reacted to the party ethylene glycol.

So now we know the basis for the the allergy. And it's very rare. This pig allergy. I mean, not many people have that allergy anyway. But now that scientists know that they can exclude people who might have that allergic reaction and then very importantly, but all eight were treated very effectively, you know, they gave them adrenalin or even antihistamines worked. So now it's a kind of a well, I suppose, relatively well known thing. I guess these people have had this allergic reaction, but it's good to know that.

Is it possible to have this allergic reaction and not know about it yourself that you might be walking around with? You might never know, you might share, but it's extremely rare they've seen this, in fact, Madonna had flagged it and said we have probably ethylene glycol in our vaccine and there's a remote chance of allergy to the kind of the kind of start coming in a way, you know, and it wasn't revealed in the trial because it's so rare, you know, but now you can possibly they are talking about testing for that actually or from people who are allergic to it might have antibodies already in their system, you see, because they've already, you know, developed those.

So you could test for that mixed with them. But it's so rare and it's easy to treat that probably won't be an excluder, if you know what I mean. Now that they are still talking about people that are severely allergic to things and have EpiPen, they may exclude those in this current phase because that could also be just a general immune boost with the vaccine. Remember, because you are kicking the immune system hard and that might give rise to allergy as well.

So they're watching that closely, too.

And that's why you have to stick around after you get the shot for a few minutes to make sure you're not going to react in this way. And allergic reactions normally happen quite quickly, don't they? Do you're not going to get it 24 hours later or anything like that?

Yeah, it's called anaphylaxis and it's a well known thing. And when you get a slight drop in blood pressure, you get a slight shortness of breath. Your heartbeat might go up slightly. And of course, the doctors will spot this immediately. As soon as that happens, you see, and then you treat them immediately. And that's why, as you say, they're going to keep people for 50 minutes, first of all, just to keep an eye on them.

But if you're if you're if you're worried about this and you have a history of allergy, they might keep you for 30 minutes instead and just keep you up a bit longer just to monitor this. So it's easy to measure basically, and then it's easy to to treat afterwards.

Now, the strange thing is and you have told me this, and you're going to explain this mystery, if this covid-19 coronavirus had happened, say, 50 years ago, 60 years ago, fewer people would have died.

Explain to me exactly if this is a great comparison that this had cropped up, say, in the late 60s, there'd be a lot less deaths. Now, it's very simple because the average age was lower than, in other words, people. The average age of lifespan was 71.

I mean, you would have been dead already. Be dead already. Precisely. Exactly. Isn't that amazing? So if a coronavirus had evolved and infected people decades ago, not many would have died because there weren't enough old people, I suppose is the way to think of older people to infect. Isn't it strange? You know, the average age of fatality rate is 82 at the moment from this virus.

So we know it's a disease of old age as we as we've always been saying. But it's funny, isn't it, that there wouldn't have killed that many years ago because because the average age of death was 71 years anyway. You know, that's a strange one.

Now you're looking ahead to to the vaccine delivery and the vaccine approval. And we know we've had Moderna in the United States as well as Pfizer. We have Pfizer approved in Europe and Budarin are sure to follow. And then AstraZeneca. What happens after that?

Well, this is fantastic as well, but the rollout is very clear now. And in fact, the EMA are looking at 47 different vaccines at the moment. So the FDA and you cannot predict, you know, what's going to happen next. So AstraZeneca will be approved in January, Johnson and Johnson in March. And that's a single shot vaccine, by the way, that could be more convenient. Novavax in April, Keroack and Sanofi in May, Arcturus in June and Merck in September.

Now, that's that's those uncertainties almost as far as we can be certain about anything in this business. But all those vaccines will be approved in that time scale. Now, what that means is you get to June and the six vaccines now available. But that's a really promising prediction. That's very sad.

And they all want to make a few shillings so they will manufacture in spades. So there should be no shortage, at least in the developed world.

Each of each of those companies that are already making millions and millions of doses now, a bit like Pfizer did remember, because Pfizer had made millions ahead of being approved and now these people are even more confident because of what's happening. You see, so they're stocking up at millions and millions of doses. And what this means is supply will not be an issue. And we can comfortably predict in Ireland, we are aiming to have 13 million doses. You know, by the time we get to Q2 next year, we have 13 million doses of vaccines in the country which would allow us to vaccinate everybody.

So, again, it's alarming, but in a way, how wonderful this is, if you like like why couldn't we have done this with other infectious diseases? You see, you know, in other words, if we mobilize behind malaria like this, malaria could be gone. And that's the future. By the way, we're learning from Calvet how to mobilize a vaccination campaign, basically. And and one prediction I saw as well for the deputy CMO in the U.K. He said that 99 percent of the vulnerable population in the UK will be vaccinated by February.

So you've protected 99 percent of the vulnerable, which is amazing, isn't it? So amazing. You can see what happens then if you're protecting 99 percent of the vulnerable, the death rate plummets to negligible and then the big debate will begin. Will governments know, loosen up based on that number alone? In other words, you don't need to get to herd immunity. That's going to be very difficult to achieve, of course, to vaccinate 70, 80 percent of a population that that will take a year or more.

But you won't wait. You don't wait for that if you're protecting the vulnerable. We're in a much better place, you see. So that's a really optimistic prediction based on protecting the vulnerable.

Suppose you protect the vulnerable, but you know, some. How you end up with the condition covid-19, what about therapies? We know that Donald Trump got to the Rolls Royce of therapies when he was sick. I mean, what's coming down the tracks for the general population?

Again, we can predict that, but this is great as well. So so they're predicting all these trials that are running that we've been taught you and I've been talking about for the past six months. They will read out in January, February, March, BCG. Remember that? We were discussing that a while ago. That'll read out in January. Two huge trials. Now, if they get efficacy with BCG, there'll be an issue with should they use it or not, because it won't be as good as the vaccines like the vaccines are giving 90 percent efficacy.

As we know, by the way, that was a huge result to yet because the NIH and the FDA said if we get to 50 percent, we'll be happy and they hit ninety. So that's a massive performance. Isn't a subsidy, won't be as good as those.

But still, it's a very safe thing and and down the line and it's cheap as chips and available widely so as a as a holding operation in particularly in the developing world, get everyone vaccinated with BCG at least to kind of put your finger in the dike and hold the tide of covid back.

One prediction is that BCG will be rolled out for everybody from now on anyway. You know, they need to be used to use BCG a lot. Why not bring it back, especially if it's protecting against covid. So you might see a situation where children are again being given the BCG vaccine routinely, as you say, that would be a protector anyway for them. You know, and then all the therapies, the several antibodies are even better than the Regeneron one.

Remember, Trump got this antibody from Gendron. There's one I saw yesterday. It's four times more potent than that. And that'll get approved to watch very quickly. And then, of course, my business, the anti inflammatory drugs to protect people who are getting an inflammatory long reaction. There's one collectedly mob, which I'm actually involved in, partly that trial to read out in January as well. And that's looking very potent as a way to protect people, see if all these different drugs will now begin to read out and then what that means.

Doctors have more options. Then if people are in hospital, they can be treated.

Now, another positive thing, I saw this during the week, a report in the UK in many journals or many newspapers, a company called Vacek, which is promising a saliva test for covid-19 and other people, have been testing this, too. What do you make of the saliva test?

Yeah, that's that's absolutely going to be the next thing. So instead of swabs, which are a bit uncomfortable, as anybody who's had a test will tell you, saliva will replace the swabs, that's the next prediction. And that would be January, February, March. We'll see more and more saliva based test being approved. And that's one company, as you say, that's a very sensitive test and it's an interesting test they've had. It actually almost picks up the live virus.

I remember we said the other week that we can pick up a live virus in someone's saliva. You can see who's a super spreader and who isn't. And that Batek tests is claiming that these are claims, of course, but they're claiming that that test part is based on using ACE to the thing that the virus actually binds to.

You know, instead of using an antibody, you can use the natural thing that the spike latches onto when you're detecting kind of a viable virus in that I say, OK, so so you're putting an ace two into someone's mouth to get a saliva and you're offering this two receptor to the virus. And if it's around, it'll jump onto the EU. And that gives you a readout in the test.

Exactly. And the clever, slightly more natural way to pick up the virus, I suppose. And it's the claiming huge sensitivity. This is the natural thing that the virus sticks onto, if you like. So why not use that as a test, you see, and then you take the EU as a sort of a reagent, as the reason you can even take the virus. So they're making some very interesting predictions without that one. And then the fact that the saliva can be used instead of a swab, that's a big advantage because because that makes it much more convenient.

Brilliant. Brilliant. And now some of the questions coming in. Could you ask Luke how we can make Christmas safe? My elderly parents are coming to us for Christmas dinner. My two teenage boys have been in school, and I'm now terrified that they may have picked up this new variant unbeknownst to us. What can we do in our house to keep things safe? That's from Carmel.

Well, again, the guidelines, Karamat, are very good. If you go onto the gov website, how to have a safe Christmas. It's very well laid out there and it's all the usual things. I think if there's a fear or a worry that the people have been exposed to the virus, that there's a teenager who's been doing a lot of socializing, that's a concern because they might have picked the virus up to just make sure they're wearing masks, keeping distance ventilation in the room.

You know, these are the guidelines. And if you're really concerned about someone who might have picked up the virus, keep them away from the vulnerable. That's that's a really important thing to say as well.

Could cover droplets, stick to footwear and get carried into homes, kids crawling around floors, etc..

No, that's very unlikely. I think that's become clear that as well. It's very fragile. I'd say the body on surfaces. So if it goes onto any surface, it has to be a very high dose really to be, you know, likely to be there on the surface. And I wouldn't worry about footwear and things like that in general. We are we can worry less about picking this up off surfaces. It doesn't mean you shouldn't wash your hands, though, because that's a good thing to do anyway.

You know, but overall, any surface to be at footwear or anything really extremely low risk.

Can you ask Glueck and other news talk texta don't have a name. How long it'll take to know is the South Africa. Invariant, how will it impact the vaccine efficacy and that would apply to the southern England one as well?

With no worries about that actually, because remember, what the vaccine does is that it's the spike protein that's in all the vaccines. You make thousands of different antibodies that cover that spike. It's like a fantastic trick of the immune system. These variants only have seven different say from the from the other one. And therefore, even if the antibodies won't recognize those seven bits, there's hundreds of other bits they can recognise. So we're very confident the vaccines will protect against these variants.

And that's not a fear that we have.

OK, so that's we've had the good and the bad news, mostly good news. Look, it has to be said. So when the next we'll speak live on the radio, it'll be 20, 21, and we'll already have our first jobs in people's arms in this jurisdiction. So exactly. Lots to look forward to with positivity for 2020, I think.

I mean, we're in the thick of it still, remember, I mean, all over the world, people aren't having Christmases as we know, and the virus is still dangerous and still out there. So we've got to keep doing the things we're supposed to do in the numbers look grim, don't they? But the truth is, 2021, we're going to beat it. And it's just a matter of, you know, three, six months on, we'll be in a much better place.

We're very confident of that.

Well, now people love listening to. But I wonder, is this about to change? Look, we have a piece of music from yourself.

Some good things. Explain, explain, explain.

This is this sounds self-serving, but what? Well, we did I thing the metabolics when asked the play of the Irish College of General Practitioners Christmas Zoome this is last week and they asked us to sing a song. I remember three of our band are doctors themselves whose wives are GP's.

So we thought we'd sing to the GP's and over a thousand GP's tuned in and then they asked us to play a song. So we decided to play Slaid. Merry Christmas everyone, except we've changed the lyrics. It's Mary KOVR-TV Christmas and they loved it, but basically and it was recorded. So I thought the listeners might like to hear a little bit of Mary Kowit Christmas as we move towards Christmas Day. All right.

The Metabolics featuring Luke O'Neill on lead vocals, as you've never heard him before, take it away.

So. Well, Tony, to me, he hasn't been listening at all. Have you got the guts to take it, if it's like. When the metabolics, that's shocking.

I hope people were not offended by it, but we thought, you know, the Davidson Duberman says, what a load of metabolics, very happy Christmas to look at all of the show.

Is there no end to Luke's talents?

Truly a god amongst men, says Patric's. Luke, thank you for everything in 2020. And we look forward to continuing our conversations of positivity in 2021.

And a very happy Christmas to you. All the best by.

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