
Will train strikes derail Keir Starmer?
Sky News- 114 views
- 18 Dec 2024
Sky News' deputy political editor Sam Coates and Politico's Jack Blanchard share their daily guide to the day ahead in politics in ...
The world is becoming increasingly complex and volatile. How can we make sense of it all?
I'm Richard Engel.
And I'm Yalda Hakim.
And we present Sky News' latest podcast, The World. Each week, we'll cut through the noise to guide you through the week's global events and explain to you why what happens out there matters to you wherever you are.
We're on the ground in some of the world's toughest places. Listen now to the world with Richard Engel and Mihalda Hakim wherever you get your podcasts.
Hello there, and welcome to Wednesday's Politics App Check and Sam's Daily, the podcast that gives you everything you need to know about the day ahead in British politics in under 20 minutes.
It is Wednesday, December 18th. My name is Jack Blanchard of Politico. With me, as you can hear, is Sam Coats of Sky News, and raise up the union, Jack. Sam, because get excited, Keir Starmer is in the country. He is here.
The prime minister is here. He's in the UK, and he will be attending the last prime minister's questions of the year. Feels like a real red letter day to me.
Before he heads off to go down people's chimneys in a week's time, for Christmas Day is a week, today. You can very much get the sense that politics is is winding down, just at the moment. But we have, his weekly final weekly clash with Cammy Badenoch, today. And then tomorrow, there's, his appearance before the liaison committee.
Just just let me let me tell you something, Sam, from, from Playbook this morning, which, my colleague Dan Blum has has written. He says that David Lamy, the foreign secretary, is expected to head to Brussels today to join a meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky and the heads of government from Germany, France, Italy, and Poland. Apparently, Starmer has decided not to attend this and has sent Lamy and Ted. Has Keir Starmer actually decided that it might be wise for him to spend a day in the UK today given it's the last PMQs of the year? Could it be that he's actually turned down a trip abroad?
Stranger things have happened.
Or could it be that he made the possibly well advised choice that, in a competition between seeing world leaders and seeing the British media, which is what he's doing this evening at a drinks party, he is probably better advised to do the latter.
Oh, I can't think of anything worse than drinks with the lobby in number 2. Alright. Definitely go and see. Anyway, last PMQs of the year, today at lunchtime. And Carrie Badenoch, the lead opposition, very helpfully released a video on, on what we used to call Twitter last night, where she appears to have given us a good steer on what she's going to on her sort of new lines of attack.
I don't know if you watch this, Sam, but she basically is trying to pitch the idea that Labor cave in on every possible deal that they try and negotiate. And she references the Chagos Islands deal. She references the, the pay deals that she struck, laborers struck with various striking public sector workers, including doctors and including, rail workers, of course. And she the sort of inference that she's drawing is that when Keir Starmer heads off to Brussels in the new year, as we know he's going to do, to try and renegotiate the Brexit settlement, or at least tweak it, or improve it, or whatever. That Labor, once again, will sort of bow down and fail to get the deal that's good for the country as she is framing it.
And it wouldn't be surprising, Sam, given she put this video out last night, sort of a rather stern Kenny Badenoch talking into the camera, and telling us what she thinks of Keir Starmer. It wouldn't be surprising to hear her try and frame some of her questions today around that sort of theme.
I have to say, I sometimes wonder whether Labor MPs want Keir Starmer to back down even more than Kemi Bazinor says that she does at the moment. Obviously, the big rumpuses with the Labor Party have included the 2 child benefit limit, from before the election, the winter fuel payment, abolition from just after the election. And then there was a an announcement yesterday that has left quite a lot of Labor MPs aghast. And I and I would be surprised if this issue comes up at prime minister's questions, which is about the so called WASPI women, women who were born in the 19 fifties, whose retirement age was changed, in the 2000. But the allegation is that they weren't given proper notice that this was happened.
The government wasn't legally obliged to do this, but, but, Ombudsman has found that they should have done it, and the government has decided not to spend up to £10,000,000,000 in compensation. Now, on its own terms, I think the government thinks that they're on pretty strong ground because they weren't obliged to do this. But because Labor under Jeremy Corbyn backed WASPI women and compensation completely firmly in the 2019 election, and there were very, very strong hints in the last parliament that compensation could be coming, Loads of members of the now cabinet standing in holding sort of signs saying, we back WASPI women and compensation should be looked at. There is now a a sort of political backlash inside the Labor Party about that. So Keir Starmer standing firm on some things, but, not necessarily the things that his own side wish he would.
I'm I'm struggling to see that, so called caving in on the Chagos Islands is really going to be 1 that really cuts through with the public. I do think it's 1 that's gonna rear its head in the New Year, though, once Donald Trump comes into the White House. We keep hearing from Nigel Farage, who is, of course, Donald Trump's mate. And indeed, Nigel Farage has written, in, in The Telegraph this morning that there's going to be big trouble over the Chagos deal in the new year once Trump comes in, and he's going to try and unpick that. And so you could see that sort of blowing up for Keir Starmer in a diplomatic way, even if I doubt very much it's top of the list of people's complaints about the Labor government out there in the country.
The railways 1 is an interesting 1 for her to seize upon, Sam, because, Labor did, of course, settle with the rail unions pretty quickly. And indeed, the very next day after they announced that pay deal to sort of much fanfare, look, we finally fixed this problem. 1 of the rail unions went and announced a whole new set of strikes, and there was very much anger at the then transport secretary Louise Hay for allowing this sort of choreography of that to happen because it just looks so bad that labor, like, yeah. Okay. Here's your money.
We've finally solved this deal. And then the unions just start walking out on strike again. And with, of course, great timing, we heard yesterday, Sam, that there will be another fresh round of rail strikes, over the New Year.
Of all the political stories that are around at the moment, I think what's gonna happen on the railways and its link to politics is possibly, 1 of the things that will be pretty high up on a lot of people's minds over the next few days. It's the strike action and the problems on the railways aren't on the front pages at the moment, but I wonder whether this is gonna be a big theme of our politics in the next few days. And if I'm being honest, Jack, I don't know if you think this, but sometimes the state of the railway network railway network is is the thing that makes me wonder whether the UK is a serious country or not. It it it is so poor, and I speak as a part time driver, but you just cannot rely on either the big intercity routes or, or or catching a casual connection without sort of reasonable risk of, disruption. And and the reason that matters in politics and the reason that matters in this podcast is because 1 of Keir Starmer's biggest cause is to make effectively all of the problems on the railway his problem because, of course, his flagship policy for the railways is to renationalize, bring back into public ownership everything to do with the railways.
And, you know, I'm just we'll we'll I'll get into it in a second. But, you know, in America, when there's a holiday season, they put on more flights for Thanksgiving. In Britain, looking across the railway timetables, it's gruesome. Everywhere looks like there are cancelations, and that's before you get into the strike announced last night. It it it is something I think that is where politics actually makes people's blood boil quite a bit, and Keir Starmer has just taken a lot of ownership, a lot more ownership.
So by this time next year, the rail timetables really, really will be the prime minister's problem.
Yeah. It's a bit of a punt, this policy, I have to say. I mean, if if you look at the rail routes that have been taken into public ownership in the past and, of course, the Tories kept having to take them into public ownership even though they hated the idea because the, franchise system that they set up was so appalling that, the franchisees, the the the rail companies kept collapsing. And even the Tories were forced to take matters into their own hands and run the run certain lines for certain periods. And when they did so, the results have largely been pretty good.
Consistency and reliability has improved. Money has come back into the coffers of the treasury. Like, there is some good sort of factual data as to why this might work, taking these, these, lines back into public hands 1 by 1 over the next few years. However, as you say, it comes with enormous risk for Keir Starmer because once these rail lines are back in public hands, and it will take a few years to sort of scoop them up 1 by 1 as each contract ends, as you say, it is then very much the government's problem. And instead of being angry at these sort of random, don't really understand what they are massive corporate, private, foreign owned rail operators, suddenly, those of us standing on platforms waiting for never appearing trains are gonna be angry at the Prime Minister.
And that is definitely, a downside risk, for Keir Starmer. In terms of the rail networks over Christmas, well, what they say, Sam, is that, fewer people travel, over Christmas and in these periods, and therefore, it's a good time to be, restoring the railways. It doesn't sound like you really buy that argument.
I find it confusing that, the point of the year where people want to get home to their families, people are traveling with children, a different profile of people use the railways. I think there's no doubt about that, the the the rail service is obliterated. As I say, you put on more services in America at at holiday time, and you seem to put on less, here. Just very specifically to look at the sort of news around this today, the Ivanti strike is is quite is is quite, important just to to analyze what's going on there. That that is, there was a, referendum, a vote, a ballot, by Ivanti train managers, and 83% of them rejected, the, offer, and, on a sort of 83% turnout.
And what's striking about this is the approach of government shortly after they came in did look like and particularly when Sue Gray was there, that she wanted to enforce a sort of no strikes, situation. She wanted to make sure that, things like rail units didn't didn't take industrial action. She thought it was a bad look. And and I think that was partly 1 of the reasons why some of the settlements that you got over in the summer, were higher. But now there seems to be a different approach.
Sue Gray has obviously gone, And you've got a change of transport secretary from the very union friendly Lou Hague, to Heidi Alexander, who we haven't talked about a lot since she became transport secretary. But she was known when she worked at Transport for London for taking a much more robust attitude towards the unions. And I and I think talking to people, there is a bit of a sense in the unions that having had a lot of goodwill and time for for Lou Haig, they sort of wiped the the slate clean with Heidi Alexander and are prepared to play hardball, do do more industrial action. And and for her part, I wouldn't be surprised if Heidi Alexander faces tries to face down the unions a lot more, but potentially with with consequences like this. What that means is that on Tuesday, 31st December, New Year's Eve, Thursday, 2nd January, and then every Sunday until May 2025 May 25, 2025, there will now be, industrial action.
Put that on top of every other bit of disruption. You know, if you wanna get in and out of London on East Midland Railways, well, they're closing St Pancras and customers traveling to St Pancras have to transfer to rail replacement busses between bed Bedford and Milton Keynes. If you're coming to and from London from the West, Great Western Railways, well, they all stop, the the all services, from the 27th to 30th December terminate and start from Redding. If you look at, LNER, there are bus services replacing, the trains kind of in in parts of the north. Everywhere you look, there's basically a sort of almost a in some places, a weeks long disruption over the holiday period.
And, I'm sure some work will be done, but it does feel concentrated for all of those families who are trying to get home. And I do wonder whether it's 1 of those things, whether fairly or not, politicians in the years time have judged over.
Reminds me of the old joke, what's the 3 most dreaded words in the English language, rail replacement bus. And, of course, net the network rail boss, former network rail boss, Peter Hendy, is now a minister in the, in the labor government in the lords. And so don't expect any fresh radical thinking about the way these sorts of maintenance works are carried out. Sam, he's very much put him right in the middle of it, and this is the way it's always been done. Away from the train, Sam, the the, the other issue that may welcome up come up at PMQs today, if he gets a question, is Nigel Farage, whose beaming face is peering out of many front pages, at us, this morning.
If you're going through the newspapers that that soon to be already probably quite famous notorious picture of him standing with Elon Musk, at the Mar a Lago resort in Florida on Monday, along with reform's new treasurer, Nick Candy. It was like quite a big moment for Nigel Farage that he's he's written about it in the papers today. He didn't actually get to meet Donald Trump, which you would think he's probably a bit sore about having gone all the way over there. But he definitely got the nest next best thing in terms of, an hour with Elon Musk. Do you think there's any credence in this idea that Elon Musk really is going to start throwing money at British politics?
And is it even allowed that a foreign businessman can pour a £100,000,000 into British politics, a far bigger donation than anyone else has ever done in the history of British politics, should should that just be okay for us to say, yeah, sure. Why not? Why not just chuck your money into, chuck the money into politics and change the game here, Elon?
There's a lot of hand wringing around largely in labor circles, but but if I'm being honest, it it there should be hand wringing all over the political system about about this. Back in 2000, the Labor Party introduced rules when Tony Blair was prime minister to ban foreign donations, But they did so by banning individuals who are based abroad and, foreign nationals from giving money. However, there was a loophole, which is that UK companies can always give money, but it's often quite murky where that where that money comes from. And so there is an argument that if, for instance, the UK subsidiary of x was to give a lot of money, and it just happened to be kind of from Elon Musk's sort of parent company, then, that could be a route that Elon Musk could be used to fund to quite considerable, sums to sums not seen before in British politics, reform. Because now there are a class of people with a lot of cash, who look willing to, particularly, in America, who look willing to fund that party.
And the question is, is that allowed within this letter of the law and is that allowed within the spirit of the law? Well, I'm sure there are plenty of labor folk who would say, no quite clearly. If Elon Musk wants to give money and he's just using a UK company, we've we've got to stop that. Indeed, there are it looks like some moves afoot. Lord Khan in the House of Lords, who's part of Angela Rayner's ministerial team, is hinting that there's some kind of look at donations at the moment.
But the question isn't, are the laws fit for purpose? But, really, is the electoral commission strong enough if he wants to if it wants to step in, and look at this decision should it happen? Because all the electoral commission would have to do is say, hang on a moment. We all know that Elon Musk is the ultimate donor for this gift to reform. That makes it illegal.
But that would require the electoral commission to act more robustly and more firmly than they ever have done in their frankly quite weak 25 year, lifespan. It's an organization that has tiptoed towards big decisions and then kind of fallen backwards, initiated prosecutions that never happened, and is very happy to, in infract political parties over small and medium stuff. But if it looks like it's big stuff, it they really have a track record of of taking it on. So the question is, is the problem the laws, about foreign donations? Is the problem or is the problem enforcement about foreign donations?
Or do people collectively think that Elon Musk or people like Elon Musk should be able to use their UK com companies to give, given that, frankly, that quite a lot of other people look like they're giving from abroad through this method, and, it would be a wholesale change that you couldn't just apply to 1 person.
Right. And I'm sure Nigel Farage supports us to say, why shouldn't we take money if it is within the letter of the law? Who knows what the spirit of the law even means? And certainly in his piece today, Farage says that following such intense media speculation, the issue of money was discussed with Elon Musk, and there will be ongoing negotiations on that score. You just know he's loving the attention of this.
If nothing else, Nigel Farage is, amongst many other things, a wind up merchant, and he will be enjoying winding up, the Labor Party and indeed the Tory party with the suggestion that he could suddenly be, head of the wealthiest party, in the UK by miles and miles. I mean, we've never seen sums like this sort of thing, being discussed. And, of course, but to Elon Musk, I mean, it's just pocket change. I mean, it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to him if he gave the money or not in terms of his own funds. And he might rather enjoy trying to, blow up British politics.
I don't know. I've never met the guy. I'm speculating there.
And the point that remains valid that we touched on a couple of weeks ago after that spectator dinner is, in the past, it was said that money makes much less impact on British politics than it does on, say, American politics because you can flood the TV airwaves in America with adverts paid for by donations. Whereas in the UK, you couldn't do that because of the rules around broadcasting. That has gone out of the window because of the Internet, because pretty much most people spend more time looking at their phones than they do at the telly by a many, many, many factor of many, many times. And there are no rules or next to no rules about what can be put on social media sites and other places, that people look. And frankly, we're in a world now where politicians use cash to generate their own content.
So you and me as broadcasters and, and journalists compete not only with each other, but also against homegrown content by politicians. And that's what the cash pays for. And generating good videos and making sure they go everywhere and they flood the scene is what this cash can do. And we have just allowed a wholesale change in the way our political system operates by kind of let now people might think it's fine, people might think it's not fine, but structurally, British politics has changed massively just in the space of 10 years by letting this happen without anybody really intervening. And the the the discussion about Elon Musk or or other people who are billionaires wanting to fund our politics now, is is of a different order of consequence than it ever has been before.
The other thing Elon Musk pioneered in the recent US election, Sam, was using his he was obviously helping to fund Donald Trump's campaign, and his Super PAC set up sort of paid grassroots organizers going out and doing mass door knockings in key states around the US. Now, of course, Reform UK doesn't have that much of a grassroots operation at least yet. It's a relatively new party. It's still building out its basic operation across the country. It is not impossible given a large amount of money that it could try and set up something similar, where it is literally paying people to go out door knocking and leafleting and flying in a way that on a sort of scale that we haven't normally seen in the UK, where normally that sort of stuff is done by helpful volunteers and networks of volunteers who've been on the ground for years.
So who knows how else Nigel Farage might spend his vast sums of money in 2025 were some to come his way.
Right. That is all we've got time for. That was the alarm. Inflation has risen to 2.6%, up from 2.3% in November. And I know that because Andrew Griffiths, the shadow business secretary, has just Whatsapped me a lengthy statement denouncing the government.
Unsurprising. I'm sure more bad news for Rachel Reeves will be something we touch on tomorrow. But until then, have a lovely day.
Merry Christmas. Alright. See you in the morning, sir. Cheers.
The world is becoming increasingly complex and volatile. How can we make sense of it all?
I'm Richard Engel.
And I'm Yalda Hakim.
And we present Sky News' latest podcast, The World. Each week, we'll cut through the noise to guide you through the week's global events and explain to you why what happens out there matters to you wherever you are.
We're on the ground in some of the world's toughest places. Listen now to the world with Richard Engel and Mihaldeh Hakim wherever you get your podcasts.