Transcribe your podcast
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Okay, this is a true story. I have a friend who once faked his own death so he could have more time to watch his favorite TV show. In my new podcast, Truthless, I'm talking to people about the lies they tell, from forging new identities to taking their love of Game of Thrones a little too far. From Spotify and the Ringer podcast network, I'm Brian Phillips. Listen to Truthless on Spotify or wherever. Wherever you get your podcasts.

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We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. Put up a new rewatchables on Monday night. We did Meet the Parents. We have a sports movie coming next Monday night. Maybe I'll give some hints over the weekend on the rewatchables Twitter feed. Stay tuned for that. Hey, if you missed part one of today's podcast, me and Big Was, and then Van Lathen joined us. We talked basketball, we We talked Knicks and Bulls. We talked about the NBA's popularity these days with why the ratings are going down, and yet the interest seems to be up. That conversation went in a whole bunch of directions, as it so often does when Van gets involved. But we also talked about Mike Tyson and the big fight coming up this weekend in four decades of having Mike Tyson in our lives. So that was part one. Part two is a little simpler. Joe House is going to come on at the very top. We're going to be talking about the Washington Washington, Philadelphia. Thursday night game, the biggest NFC East game involving Washington in a long, long time. And then House goes away. I bring in Nate Tice from Yahoo.

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We talk about Drake May because he's on Drake May Island with me. And then we talk about the five things he's been the most excited about over the course of the season. Really fun football combo. Then bringing House back in to do Million Dollar Picks. And by the way, it's not Sober House tonight. I'm just worrying guests now. So that is the plan for part two. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, taping this first part of the podcast. It is almost 8:30 Pacific Time. Joe House is here. His favorite team, the Washington Seawards, was seven and two a mere five days ago, and it's now seven and four. After two losses in five days. I listened to you on a very good show called East Coast Bias on the Ringer Gambling Show today, and you were saying it felt a little early for Washington in a game like this. So make the same case you made 12 hours ago on that show.

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Well, I've had a couple of drinks just to be blunt about it right from the top. So I'll be able to get half of it right.

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Is it Drunk House or just slightly Overserved House? Buz house.

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Buz house, okay.

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Buz, yeah. Buz house.

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I'll say this. This Washington team has now lost four games on the season. All of their losses are to play off teams from last year. None of their losses came to teams that they were forecasted to beat. They have, against their three toughest competitors, all one-score games. So this whole season is a silver-lining season. And Washington just isn't quite good enough yet. They don't have good enough players. They have good players, and kudos to the front office and the coaching staff and everybody to put out the first competitive team that we've seen here in Washington. Now, we did make the playoffs a handful of years ago with Ron Rivera, with the team that finished under 500.

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I don't remember that.

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Did make the playoffs in 2015.

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Did we bet against Ron Rivera when he made the playoffs with Under-500, too? We must have.

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I mean, it's lock of the century. We had to. I hope we did. Yeah, I hope we did. But for two and a half, three and a half quarters, Washington was in this game. Washington looked fine.

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But you know why he didn't win? Because your quarterback's hurt.

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Yeah, that's the other part of it. I said this on the show. One of my favorite bets for this evening was Jane Daniels' under 43 and a half rushing yards. He can't run right now because he's hurt. He's protecting his ribs. The team is protecting him. The point isn't to win in week 11. The point is to win enough games to make it to the playoffs. I think they need to win three more games. The schedule sets up nice. We have a nice rest.

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Let's go through it. You're home Dallas, home Tennessee next, too. Great. You'll be favored by five, five and a half against Dallas, seven against Tennessee. You got a buy week at New Orleans, home Philly, home, Atlanta, at Dallas again. You get Dallas twice when it looks like they're punting on the season.

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It's wonderful.

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Couldn't be a bit better. You might get to 11 wins anyway.

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Yeah. I think in the NFC, you get to Ted, great chance of getting in there. And this little mini buy can't be overrated, right? They go from this Thursday night game, which I hate. I hate a divisional game on a Thursday night. But now they We're going to have the rest. We're going to get Marshawn Latimer. We're going to get Jane Daniels. Hopefully, those eight days are meaningful to his recovery. The offensive line is a little dinged up. Cliff Kingsbury doesn't think so because he thinks that we should try the short yardage rushing plays. That the Eagles, there were eight short yardage rushing plays. I'll just do my Kingsbury bit for 10 seconds. Eight short yardage rushing plays for Washington. They amassed a total of negative rushing yards. Is it second half Cliff? Or do we have second half Cliff in our lives?

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Are you talking second half of the season or second half of a game or both?

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All of the above. All the above, sadly.

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So if Cliff was a baseball pitcher, he'd be the, I don't want to see the lineup a third time guy.

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I'm tapping my right arm.

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I'm tapping.

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You're bringing in the situation of lifting. Who's the really often coordinator relief? Yes, exactly.

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Well, that was the key part of the game was when it was, what, second and one? It felt like I was sweating the war game. I was sweating out an eagles tease and an eagles parlay. Second and one stuff, third and one stuff. Let's go for it on fourth and two. Fumbled handoff. Daniels tackled three yards away from line of scrimage, and that flipped the game. I thought, and maybe I had some PTSD from last year with Jalen Hertz, but I think it was the Giants last year. I can't remember. With that game, the Eagles murdered literally every tease on the planet when Hertz through that last interception into five guys. And it was like, Oh, I bet on the Eagles. They're in the one game this year when Jalen Hertz just looks terrible and he has seven injuries. It felt like that today in the first half. It felt like he doesn't look right. What's going on here? Are they hiding an injury? His body language gets weird. He starts getting a little hangdog-ish. He's a little slow to get up after he gets knocked down. Your defense was flying around. I felt like maybe you could steal a 13 to 10 type game.

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It was sitting there for a while, and then Saquon Barkley took over.

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And that defense got God bless him, it's all retreads and guys that haven't established themselves with much in the way of pedigree yet. Frankie Louvou is awesome. Bobby Wagner has pedigree. Doran is not bad. She's not bad. I like she. Yeah. There's five or six guys who've established, but you still have St. Juice out on the corner. The kid from Michigan, now that looks like the steal of the draft, Sandra Still. Incredible. They went at him with both A. J. Brown and Smith, and he was with the same route, and he was there for both of them. So knock on wood. It's good. It's a good team in progress.

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How did you feel Dan Quinn's arms up in the air? We're up by seven on a Thursday net game with a chance to blow every parlay and teaser, double fist pump scream reactions. At least from a character standpoint, he seems like he'd be a fun coach to have, considering your last coach was basically, who is more dead, him or Joe Biden? In retrospect, Ron Rivera, Joe Biden.

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I mean, respectfully, Ron Rivera did just beat cancer last season. Why did that have to be the retort?

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I was sending you up for a Biden joke, and now you have to get all serious on me. Jesus.

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We're way past the Biden joke, aren't we?

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Is there a video of Ron Rivera walking in the beach in Delaware like Biden or no?

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Maybe the two of them hand in hand together. Who knows?

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Notice Biden's wife didn't put her arm out. Maybe help the old man as he's trying to navigate some sand. Jesus.

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There isn't a lot of physical contact between those two. Ever since it became clear that he wasn't going to run for President again, you can't catch those two together in a single camera frame. Yeah, it's tough.

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Tough times. We'll see how it goes. Okay, so big picture. I would have said Philly was maybe my number one draft pick for the other NFC title spot against Detroit. Something's missing, and I don't know what it is. Now, granted, their kicker today, they scored 26 points. Their kicker missed two field goals in the PAT, so really, they could have been in the 30s. But I don't know what it is, but They have not won me over as the second team yet. The problem is I don't know who the second team is. We could have the Green Bay conversation. Maybe we'll know more this week. Maybe this is the week San Francisco gets going. Maybe Minnesota will start looking again like they did in I'm better, go on and on. But I just don't know who the team is.

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I still think it's Philly, and I think that they remain a work in progress themselves. You have to remember, this is... And they made a point of it on the broadcast, Alan Eric, America's favorite Thursday night couple. Fandio's defense takes a little while for guys to get. They have two outstanding guys in that secondary, Quinian Marshall and Dajine. And those guys are clearly getting it. Jalen Carter had a dominant game tonight against the Washington offensive line. It's been a revelation. So I think as they put it together defensively, ultimately, they won that with their defense. That's what we would say. I haven't seen anything out of San Francisco. If San Francisco keeps triding out the 30th ranked special teams, get the F out of here. What they did last week- Isn't it worse than 30th?

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It was 30th before all the shenanigans last week. It must have dropped.

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There was a lot of bad special teams. Atlanta's kicker had three missed field goals. But In any event, as you go down the list on the NFC side, it's a lot easier to poke holes than express confidence. I think on both sides of the ball, the Eagles are the second best.

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Yeah, probably by default, but I don't feel good about it.

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Okay. It is only week 11. Remember, this is a marathon.

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How many NFC teams would you take over the second NFC team? Buffalo, KC, would you take both of them?

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Yeah, for sure. Probably the Ravens.

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I don't know. I don't take the ravens.

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Ravens are close.

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Ravens are the most- Would you rather be the Chargers or the Eagles?

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Oh, definitely the Eagles. No, come on. We're not there yet. The Chargers just discovered that they have two receivers that they can use.

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Would you rather be the Stealers or the Eagles?

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Eagles. Those weapons on the outside.

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I think I'd rather be the Stealers because the Siriani factor which did not rear a took away head tonight because maybe on Thursday nights his vacations better. Fair enough. But- Fair enough. So your team's, I'm guessing, a playoff team still. I don't see a scenario where that doesn't happen unless Daniels is really hurt. But even now, you're seven and three.

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Seven and four.

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I'm sorry. You're seven and four. You have a one-game leadover, Green Bay, who's number three in the NFC North. Nobody in the NFC South is catching you. And then in the NFC West, Arizona is six and four, San Prince 5 and 4, and the Rams, who we touted a couple of weeks ago, who now are in a must-win spot against my guy, Drake May in the Pats. So you're 10 Ten Wins feels like it gets into the playoffs, right?

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I agree. I think it's Ten Wins in the NFC, and I like their chances. I think I'm cautiously optimistic.

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Has this been a good season for rehabilitating your Washington commander relationships in your life?

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I mean, look, I'm wearing the hat.

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What text threads are you on? How many different Washington text threads are you on?

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A half dozen, at least. And it's unbridled exuberance. We have a football team where everybody In my conversations, it's around what the future might hold. Everything begins with this quarterback. We must keep this kid healthy. But if we have that foundational piece, then it's been demonstrated, especially in his rookie year, in his first 11 games in his rookie year, he's showing that he belongs in the upper echelon. You get that, then you have a window. And if you have a window, you better jump through it in this modern NFL, right?

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We have the next segment. I'm talking to Nate Tice about Drake May. It's the exact same situation. Yeah. We're like, wow, we now have... Even when this happened with braided for the paths and even with blood so in the '90s, but I was way younger with having my history of football knowledge and just how important a quarterback was. You're like, we'll get a quarterback. When you get older and you realize how rare it is, and then you get one of these guys, it's the number one thing you'd want in any sport.

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Well, and in this iteration of the NFL, this version, because of the way the salary cap is configured, getting the most important player on the team at the cheapest possible price and then trying to build around. It's I admired what Houston did in the offseason, this most recent offseason, in terms of trying to add- It just got aggressive. You got to go. You got to go. The time is now if you have a quarterback like this. I expect Washington with Adam Peters.

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It's like what the Wizards are going to do with Bob Carrington. Same thing.

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Very similar.

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Now that you have your foundational piece- He's the guy. Now you got a bit in Jordan pool. Now you have that one, two punch. Jordan pool, 42 points last night.

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Why did you have to say do that?

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He had 42 points last night.

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All he did, you know what that man did? Delivered a cover. You know the line was 10 and Washington lost by nine.

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Jesus. I think we're in the heyday of betting on- It's a pool party, baby.

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It's a pool party.

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We're in the heyday of betting on huge underdogs in the NBA right now. You notice that? The fucking, what you call it, Hawks were 16-point underdogs and just went into Boston and beat them. There might not even been a money in the game. This three-point variance, it's insane to lay that many points with any team. All right. Anything else in this game? Because we're going to take a break and bring you back later for a million dollar pick unless you have anything else.

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No, I'm pleased. They were competitive, good, happy. Let's move on. Let's get to 10 wins.

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Okay. House, before we send you packing and bring in Nate Tice, I love the NBA Cup. You also love the NBA Cup, Oh, not only do I love it, I gave out a beautiful Group C Cup Parlay on the Fandle Sportsbook.

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I heard that. It's on the socials, baby.

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The C Cup Parlay.

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I love the cup. You kidding me?

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What was the C Cup Parlay?

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The Cavaliers to win Group C in the East and the Warriors to win Group C in the West. Plus $485, baby.

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C-cup. Well, you know what makes the NBA Cup even better than the C-Cup parlay? A Ringer Profit Boost token on FanDuel, which you could throw that house bet on right now. We told FanDuel we want to celebrate the NBA Cup, give out some profit boost. So what did we do? We created the 30 on 30 Ringer Profit Boost token. Boost any 30 plus point scorer bet on the Friday NBA Cup slate, and that's any 30 plus point scorer that has minus 200 odds or higher is eligible for a 30% profit boost. Is your team playing in this on Are they?

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I don't know, are they?

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You can feel the excitement with the NBA Cup. Yeah, your team's playing Atlanta.

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Do you have a 30 point scorer you want to do? That's the only team Washington has beat this year. Let's say Balal Koulibali dropped a 30-piece.

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Oh, my God. I can't even imagine what the odds on that would be.

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Kula Bale, 30-piece, baby.

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I wonder if FanDuel, did they even have the odds for that?

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Probably not because his career high is 27.

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More wagers. Oh, look Look at this. Player points. They don't have Kula Bale.

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How dare they?

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How about Trey Young, Jordan Pooh, Kyle Kuzma, or Jalen Johnson? Could Jordan Pooh have 30 points against the Hawks? Plus 410?

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He's dying to have the chance. He's dying for that opportunity.

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No, we'll stick with... We liked Cleveland for this.

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Yeah, sure.

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So Cleveland has Donovan Mitchell plus 195, 30 points against the Chicago I'll go Bulls in the NBA Cup.

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Great. Let's do that.

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We'll recommend that one. There you go. Hope you like the Ringer profit boost. Again, any 30 plus score that is minus 200 or higher is eligible for the 30% profit boost. We are doing it each Friday during the NBA Cup. House, I'm going to send you a packet for a little bit, bring in Nate Tice, bring you back on the end as Buzze house to do a million dollar pick. See you in a second. All right, Nate Tice is here. I'm taping this in a studio I've never been in before. This is really exciting. I feel like I'm in a futuristic year or something talking NFL. You can read Nate. You can listen to Nate on Yahoo, in the Yahoo Sports Network. We were just talking before we came on about this is the weirdest part of the NFL season. Explain your theory in this.

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It's that little lull before Thanksgiving hits, and it happens every November. And it's team start getting chopped off, but we don't want to say it yet, just in case. So we got to talk about the bangles a little bit. All right, just in case. Well, the Jets won a game, so we have to talk about them still. Now, until we get to Thanksgiving, I think everyone's a little too scared to just completely defeat them out of our discussions, to completely wipe them out. So we have this little lull. Always this little lull from week nine when we do the little midseason awards to week 13. And then we get to Thanksgiving and then December. And then we're like, oh, yeah, here we go. Playoffs are coming up. Here Here we go. Let's rock.

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I like that, the chopped off. Sal and I call it the cross offs where we cross teams off because we're still making pics and stuff. You never really know who can fully be crossed off. So there's almost two forms. One is, hey, do we not have to worry about these teams as play-off teams anymore? Then the other is what you're saying, which is basically like, can we just not talk about these guys anymore? Can we just wait until 2025? I feel that way about, I'm looking at the standings, Vegas. I'm good Never talking about Tennessee again. Jacksonville right on the cusp. There's such a train wreck that maybe part of it. And then Carolina would be the other one. And then the Giants. So that's five. Is there anybody else you'd have?

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No, those That's a good set right there because even the ones that we thought maybe were going to drop off are still, like I said, interesting. I like a good loser leaves town match at this stage of the year. Starting in November, we can start getting those out there. It's almost survivor series time, so we that. So I love a good loser leaves town match. Like, okay, these two teams are playing. Whoever loses, yeah, you're not getting talked about for a few weeks until we start talking about draft order or a new head coach.

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What did we call it in Germany last week? That was a two losers that you're in a left town?

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That was Sunday Night Heat or Saturday Morning Jack. That was the C shows from W. W. Used to have. That's what that was right there.

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House Show. I didn't just bring you on to talk I had selfish reasons because I'm an only child. You planted your flag on Drake May Island about as violently and aggressively as anybody last February, March, and April, which really prompted us to start texting and going back and forth a lot more because I'm like, I like how this guy's thinking. I hope he's right, and I think he's right, but there's not a lot of us. Then watching Drake May finally gets the job, he's got a demon D minus offensive line is generous. D minus receiver is generous. D plus play calling, generous. And I'm just so excited about what he's looked like. So you don't care about the Patriots. You're an objective guy. What have you seen? What are you excited about?

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It is funny when I start playing flags on quarterbacks, I get involved via Twitter and the beats for those teams. So I've been introduced to more Patriots reporters and bloggers than I ever even knew about going into this year. And also maybe why Belichick told them never gave them anything because holy crap, the day to day stuff that was going on during training camp with the Patriots, it was pretty interesting. But this is me raising that flag. I'm like the picture at Iwo Jima. The flag is just starting to get raised up there. I think you're down there. A couple of us are up there. We're all pushing it up. This is why I was excited about him. He's a walking, talking, explosive play. He And I think in the NFL right now, that is what you need at quarterback. You need guys, yes, to be smart and play the quarterback position. I mean, it's like operation and nickel and diming, getting the safe throws. I always thought May could do that better than people gave him credit for. But then you see the first completion against the bears to Austin Cooper, throwing a guy open 25 yards down the field, or the week before, a couple of weeks before, I should say, him just scrambling around when nothing was there, tucking or running against the Titans.

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And against the Jets. That didn't end as well. But tucking or running and getting those opportunities. And that's what he was in college with a bad supporting cast his second year starting, his last year starting. So that's why I was like, no matter what his situation was, I thought he'd be able to still show signs because of just his explosive playability and his used to D minusness around him. But it's not all perfect, but there's so many just encouraging signs of the little things that they're doing that completion that he had before the half against the bears. When he hit, that was my favorite throw, probably he's made as a pro, which was just the inbreaker to pop, to bootay. And then they had clock ticking down, no timeouts. He runs up, they spike the ball, beautiful operation with one second to go, that is so encouraging because that's not only just a cool throw that anyone can watch, it's also just the little things, the awareness of that situation. Again, this is why I was so excited about him with the intangible stuff that we talked about the last time I was on the show, talking about being the little brother, being a good athlete, being competitive.

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You're already hearing stories about him having, speaking to the team or requesting to do that. It's pretty exciting. I'm sure Patriots fans are exciting, but I just think any good appreciator of good quarterback play should be excited about Drake May because he has... There's glimpses right now, special stuff that he's doing.

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I've read all of those stories. There was a whole day of media coverage about when And then, Drake May spoke to the team last week because he didn't love the practice habits in the Wednesday practice and asked to speak in front of everybody. And they're like, Okay, do your thing, Drake May. And he went up and gave a... They said it was a fun speech Definitely kicked the team in the bud a little bit. It was a little awkward, but everybody was like, Oh, he's doing it. He's becoming a leader now. This is happening. I think he had been afraid to... He's the rookie. He's young. But I I think that was one of the things that when you read this stuff about him in college, that was pretty special about him, that he really did get it. He got the whole, I'm the quarterback. This is my car. I'm the driver. I understand this piece of it. You look at some of the other guys that come in. It was notable with Caleb last week watching that Bear's Pats game and how distant he seemed, which I think was a product of they're playing like shit.

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The coaching situation was obviously debacle. It didn't seem like any was on the same page, but who would I rather have? Obviously, I'm picking Drake May because he's on the Patriots, but I didn't think it was going to be this close, Nate. I thought Drake might not play this year. I didn't expect this.

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Yeah, which I was pulling my hair out a little bit because I never thought the mental side for May was why he had to sit, which is why you usually sit a guy. Well, this guy has only been in an air-rate offense. He's never had to handle this. He's never had to handle that. He's never had to be in a huddle, all those things. I watched May, and the in between stuff was a lot of encouraging mental aspects. I saw him changing protections. I saw him doing a lot of aspects that may be encouraged that he could start right away. And I think the footwork stuff got overblown because footwork was like, that's coachable. That's what drove me nuts during that whole draft process, where people acting like that's damning. It was, well, what if he cleans up the footwork that you guys are all worried about? And he's doing these things with bad footwork. And a lot of stuff is just people talking out of their ass, I think. He bounces. You even see him now. And even the quarterback coach talked about, I'm blanking on his name right now, but he was talking about, hey, you look and how he moves in the pocket.

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That's a good thing because he's keeping his eyes downfield because he's looking to attack the defense. And sometimes when another offensive lineman is losing, it can look like he's drifting into another pressure, but he's going away from the initial pressure, which is a good thing. That's exactly what you want. The speech thing, too, is just that mentality. He has that perfect level of golden retriever brain that I love. Josh Allen's got that a little bit, too, where it's confidence and everything, but they still have that little goofiness that's like, okay, you're not just a total robot that people can relate to this. He made the reporters clap for the defense.

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Yeah.

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That was hilarious because it was just genuine. He's just gone out.

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No, it felt authentic. I'm with you. I agree. Right.

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It wasn't like him going like, oh, this will be funny. He was like, hey, let's do it. And one person clapped and he was in phase. He was like, yeah, okay, that was fun. Those little things really add up, especially when you're losing. You can do anything when you're winning. Everything's great when you're winning. But when you're losing, those little things and guys are going like, oh, this guy is not a total diva, or this guy is not a total just homeschool kid, like somebody's quarterback is going to act. This guy is just a player. You hear other receivers talk about them? I mean, they all rave about them. In between complaining about not getting the ball, they all rave about them. Again, these are just the little things when you're not in the building that you look for and go like, oh, okay, these are things I would bet on. And the bet's looking really good right now.

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I don't feel like I'm talking out of school with the story. I sat next to Christian Gonzales at the Celtics Nets game on Friday night. So he went and apparently They were trying to get Drake May to go, the Celtics. And Drake May didn't want to go because he didn't feel like he was playing well enough yet to go to a Celtic game on a Friday night when they had to leave the next day. And I was like, Oh, that's so adorable, Drake May. I'm so glad you haven't lived up to your own standards yet as a QB, but I was super excited to see that. He's checked every box for me, everything I wanted to see. But it's interesting. Obviously, they're using him terribly. I don't understand half of the plays they run for him. One of the things I was saying to a friend of mine was, I don't understand why they just don't look at the 57 most successful Josh Allen plays that Buffalo has run for Josh Allen since 2019. And just start running all of those plays. And I mentioned that to you, and you said that wasn't the guy that he reminds you of, and you dropped the name that I did a double take.

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So say the name.

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Oh, God. This is even more of a lofty praise. Is that the high, high-end comp I have for him, and this was going in the draft process, was John Elway. Yeah, I know. It's that big arm. Elway was... Again, these are the late memories. We remember the Broncos winning the Super Bowl with Mike Shanaher and him becoming more of a bootleg guy and more of an auxiliary guy to the run game, being a Shanaher run game, and he was on the move.

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He was pretty beat up in the mid-late '90s, too. He'd taken some. He was 38.

[00:30:09]

But Prime Elway was running around, throwing launching balls, trying to try all these aggressive throws. And again, this is the 0.001% comparison for me. But that's the guy where I was trying to come up with some high-end comp, and I was like, That's really who I think of. Because the looseness of the athlete, being able to throw a missile wherever he wants, that competitiveness, sometimes that... He's not a dummy. I call him a golden retriever. But Elway was a coach's kid, obviously, very smart, but he would still try stuff. He still pushed the ball. He honed it in as the years went along. The Broncos drafted Tommy Maddox for a reason. But really, it was just that loose athlete, that big arm. And that's where I see the ideal version of him becoming, where it is a guy that throws on the move. There is more polished as it comes along. But even the stuff like the mistakes he makes right now, John Hollinger always, when he used to write the stat write-ups for ESPN, this always stuck with me that he would talk about young players and usage and turnover rate actually being a good sign down the road to star-level play because it's those guys, they have the trust to handle the ball and two, that they're trying stuff.

[00:31:24]

That is the counter of what's happening with Caleb Williams right now is that he's really trying be perfect from the pocket, and it's limiting his creation ability. While May is playing just loose and fast and everything, and yeah, he'll make a mistake, he'll try a ball. I mean, the interception against the bears was just a lapse.

[00:31:41]

He's just going to have two of those a game. And we've already. That's how it's going to go.

[00:31:44]

It's Yeah, but you take the other 48 good plays and you just deal with those overwhelming negatives because he's figuring it out. Even Mayo addressed this. He even said, he was like, yeah, I want him to try and figure this stuff out. You're learning what my ceilings are. I can't do that next time. Okay. And what's cool about May is you can tell he learns from those mistakes. He is so cognizant. It's him talking about not going to the Celtics game. That self-awareness, I think, is just really encouraging. You want that for any athlete, but Especially your franchise quarterback, you take it number three. And again, that's why it's encouraging.

[00:32:18]

Yeah. And the Josh Allen thing, which makes the most sense just because he's recent. But Josh Allen is huge. Drake's big, but he's not big like Josh Allen is. Josh Allen It feels like he's winning collisions. Drake, I'm still nervous in certain collision situations. But we were talking about it last week. I've never had a quarterback. We had Steve Grogan in the mid '70s, so I barely remember, but he ran for over 500 yards. He was a running QB before his knees went. I've never had a quarterback who makes some of the decisions that he makes during a game. He'll go back and then he'll run up the middle. And he'll run up the middle, like trying to get yards and trying to get like... It's not just like, I'm going to run seven and slide down. He's like, I'm running up the middle like I'm Macafre. He'll go to the right and you see, I call it the Zack Wilson, the scramble to the right. Nothing's there. I'll throw it out of bounds. He does the Josh Allen thing where until the very last split second, he's still looking even 40 yards downfield. So it's just really exciting to watch him.

[00:33:26]

To me, it's like, I'm positive he's going to be a franchise as QB. The Elway thing is interesting, though, because I still feel like Elway is the most talented QB I've ever seen. I don't think he was the best. I think Bradley's won the best because he earned it. Montana, I always had the highest from that era because he just felt like he was always in the right hands of them. But I always thought Elway was just... Elway felt like he could just take the shittiest team and win 10 games.

[00:33:56]

Just the size of those two, they're 6'4, 2'25. They're both like... And thank you for saying the Allen thing. That's why I never want to throw out the Allen comp. There are some play style comparisons, but that's like comparing a two guard with a power forward. Right. Yes, they can play a little similar. They do some Wacky things. The sideline throw is exactly a great example. But it's also just like a... Yeah, Allen is 6'5 and change in a legitimate 2'40. And a guy like Justin Herbert, who also gets the Drake May comparisons, Herbert's 6'6, 2'40. And 6'4, 2'25, and 2'40, that is a significant difference.

[00:34:37]

Well, you know what that's like? It's Cooper Flag because Cooper Flag is definitely special, and they're comparing him. It's like, is it KG? And it's like, all right, there's pieces of KG, but KG was 7-1. Cooper flags 6-9, maybe.

[00:34:51]

So you can't- Do you look on KG comps for him?

[00:34:54]

That feels weird for me. Well, they're just talking about him and Duncan, how these guys that that just can affect the game in all these different ways. They just play the game the right way, that are in the right spots, don't care if they score. But ultimately, there's a size difference. The same with Alan. I don't even know who you'd compare Alan to in the history of the league.

[00:35:14]

No. Like, Cam Newton, that can throw even better. But again, you're using different disclaimers with that. Flag was, I watched the Kentucky game.

[00:35:24]

Yeah, Flag's got it. Yeah, he's got something.

[00:35:27]

Just the body positioning.

[00:35:29]

If we're What's he doing this draft again? Is it still the same order?

[00:35:34]

Yeah. And I would say Jane Daniels for me... Well, for me, yeah, because I may want and then kill, too. But I would say Jane Daniels squeezed it closer than I gave him credit for. I had a half-tier gap with Daniels. Still, some of the stuff I've been very impressed with, and I'm eating crow on Cliff Kingsbury, trust me. And I just actually wrote about it today and just the offensive improvements, the cool stuff they're doing, a lot of tempo stuff. And I think Daniels has played to what I thought maybe his ceiling would be. There's just still some stuff I'm still wanting to see in the second half of the year. He doesn't really push the ball. It's very selected when he pushes the ball. And don't get me wrong, I'm talking about both sides of my mouth. He is exhaling when he does it. But it's just they haven't really faced the toughest slate of defenses that have forced them to do it. They faced the stealers who really took it to them. And you could see them just not be comfortable.

[00:36:25]

And we're taping this before the Eagles game, so that might be another defense tonight.

[00:36:29]

That's another And also my little short list I got, I'm talking a little eagles in that, too. But the thing was, I thought Daniels was a half-tier below those guys. And I would say now him and Caleb are more closer for me than I would have gave him credit for. I'm still worried about the skinniness. He has done a phenomenal job of avoiding hits. He is so, so fast. He is incredibly fast. But the thing is, it's a long season. You just take a couple of wrong hits, a couple of big blows, those start to stack up. Body three blows start to stack up. I still, though, I think I still would have him one, two, three like that. But Daniels would be a true number three or more of a two B, two A thing.

[00:37:09]

Do you care about, or obviously you're going to care about a little, but the ages of the different guys. Like, Daniels is two and a half years older than May. That's the part of it. How much of that as an advantage as you're factoring that in? Because it's got to be somewhat of an advantage, but I never know how to calculate that.

[00:37:27]

Absolutely. And that's another thing why Daniels a little bit lower. He's two red alerts, and I would say red alerts, but I guess I was about to say red flags. But two red flags there were age, skinniness, throwing over the middle, the hits that he took. He seems to be able to mitigate throwing over the middle. You can do that if you win other ways. He wins with acceleration and speed. But the thing is, again, what else are we tapping into? This is exactly how he played in college. And it was good in college, he won the freaking Heisman. But again, this does matter because he was an older prospect. Bo Nicks is a super old prospect. Bo Nicks was as old as the oldest quarterback since Brandon Whedon drafted in the first round. That absolutely matters. Drake May was in true air rate offenses that had no detail and no structure. That's why I was bullish on him. Was that, okay, we haven't even tapped into what he could actually become. Caleb Williams in a Lincoln-Reilly offense that takes adjustment to the NFL. I just thought that he had some, and I still do, I think he's actually pretty advanced mentally, but that I thought he would actually transition a little better.

[00:38:30]

But even for me, I was like, oh, maybe I was a little ahead of myself there. But, yeah, they're going to have more of a learning curve, especially then a guy that's 24 who has maybe seen 20 more games. Those reps add up. So, yeah, no, absolutely. Age, especially at a quarterback, is a big thing because it's just reps that these guys have. Like, Anthony Richardson is younger than all these guys. So that's just another aspect of evaluating these guys.

[00:38:54]

We talked about this the last time. It's so crazy that we are no better at this in 2024 than we were 50 years ago. That we can have more and more data evidence of all these types of guys, and we still have no idea who's going to... I don't think Caleb is going to be a bust, but if you told me he's going to be a bust, I wouldn't be like, There's no way. Whereas there's NBA guys that I was like, that guy is not going to be a bust. There's no chance. This guy, unless he gets hurt. But with quarterbacks, we've just seen it too many times where the combination of maybe you weren't quite ready yet. Your team's a disaster, you lost confidence, you took some hits, your eye level moved down. And it's just this chain of events that all of a sudden you're in a different spot. Even like watching Sam Darnold now in Minnesota versus the Sam Darnold I watched that. Although Sam Darnold has been great lately.

[00:39:47]

Yeah, he's turning back into that.

[00:39:49]

But you just think like, how much damage can you put on a rookie QB in a wrong situation where you've now unraveled this to the point you can't put it back in the bottle?

[00:39:59]

Yeah, scar tissue of it all. I think maybe this should be a great learning example for everybody about, we're still discussing Trevor Lawrence and whether he's it or not. But it's like, how much situation matters for even the best quarterbacks. There's 11 guys on offense, there's 22 starters.

[00:40:17]

But we know it matters. The question is, is it 90% of this and not 25%? It's a situation almost everything? Yeah, you know what I mean?

[00:40:29]

I'd say it's at least half. It is. I mean, look at Jared golf from rookie year to Jared golf with Sean McVay the next year. It went from this is the worst rookie quarterback I've ever seen to, wow, okay, we actually got something here to almost an MVP candidate. And also another thing, too, because Caleb got... You get a lot of backlash if you could describe as generational, which is why that G-word should be outlawed. It's a bet that we're making on these prospects. Some bets, like Wemby, the alien, Victor. Yeah, 90 % star here, 8 % starter, and probably a one % bench bust. A guy like C. J. Stroud, he was my quarterback one in that class. I thought his I look at it as star starter, bench bust. It's a basketball one I take for it. But with him, I thought his star was 10 %. But I thought his starter was gigantic.

[00:41:26]

Almost like 65 %.

[00:41:29]

Yeah. I was like, that guy to me felt so safe, even though he was younger and he had questions about his creativity and all those things. But I was like, man, this guy, I just don't see him failing. I just thought his... And a guy like Richardson in the same class, it was like, I see a 20% star, maybe 25%, but I also see a 30 % bust. And the same thing. Caleb, for me, had a huge starter, a good chunk star. And then I just thought he had a small bust potential. It was just, again, but he still had All these guys have it. Even a guy like May, who is one of my highest graded quarterbacks I've ever had, they're going to have that. But it's all for me chasing that percentage of star because that's what you need to win.

[00:42:10]

Would you have for the pie with Bo Nix? What was starter in the pie? You got to name this pie, by the way. Is it like the...

[00:42:22]

I don't know. I stole from a basketball blog.

[00:42:24]

Hakeskin pie or something? I don't know.

[00:42:26]

I stole from Candice Hoopis, and a guy that now works for the Nuggets, actually. He's like an analytics guy there. And I just always like the terminology for it. And that's what I applied. But the one that stuck with me was Zack Levine was the guy did an analytics thing on him, and he goes, hey, I got to bring up the comparisons. Number eight on the comparison chart was Michael Jordan. She was talking about it. He was like, it was all these bus, but then three of the comparisons of his stat stuff was like, well, you got to look at the athlete and all that. And then that was the argument about Zack Levine. It was like, he might wash out of the league in two years, but he has that 20 % chance or 10 % chance of being a star, an all-star, yada, yada. So that's the player that stuck out for me. But a guy like Nix, he was my quarterback five. And I viewed him more as a second rounder. I still thought he got overdrafted. The argument with him, or maybe my argument against him was he had a ton of starts, but he still was so skittish.

[00:43:27]

I thought his footwork was really bad. It He's still as iffy. He just has wonky plays. He's a little too safe with the football. Down the field, his accuracy is not great, but I still saw a starter in there. Even my write up with him was like, I view him as... I think I had... So I did bench starter. Bench to me is like a Jacobi Perset or Garner-Minshuh, maybe a spot starter type. I had him in that tier where it was like, okay, there's a big chunk starter and bench, like 80 %. And then like a 10 %, maybe 15 % box.

[00:43:57]

So he's been better than that then?

[00:43:59]

I don't know. He's been how he is. Sean Payton is doing a lot of good work. That is pretty good last week.

[00:44:07]

Yeah, you're right.

[00:44:08]

He was. And Sean Payton has been in his bag. He really has. The run game is good. The Broncos defense is sick. I think he has improved from what he looked like week one, which was like, oh, my God, you can't play this guy. They chopped out play calls for him, too. So they stopped using motion so much. So again, that's good coaching. Let's make sure you're on straight and narrow. But from week two, I thought he was not going to make it after a rookie year. I thought we had a Josh Rosen situation going on. Now I'm like, okay, you could be a tangible starter. So he's reaching that maybe middle tier that I thought he could reach.

[00:44:42]

Josh Rosen. We're going to take a break, and then we're going to do five favorites. All right, so I asked you to make a list of five things relating to the NFL season. I did not want to know what was on the list, and you can count them down from one through five, or you could build a suspense and go five through one. So what is the list?

[00:45:02]

I'm going to build suspense. And I feel like I went with... Because I'm so boring sometimes. I just went with things I'm enjoying in this NFL season.

[00:45:12]

You're a positive guy.

[00:45:14]

I try to I try to be. I keep my negativity to myself most of the time. But yes, I want... Because there's a lot too much about how sports are worse than they used to be and all that. And it's like, no, it's the opposite. We should enjoy what these freaks are doing every week. So I want things that I enjoy Enjoy watching this season. I'm starting with number five, and this is actually a negative one. This is telling the Cowboys I told yourself. That's something I've been enjoying this season, going, you guys thought you can draft two offensive linemen and start them and not have a running back and not have a second pass catcher. And you thought you can not have a defensive tackle that can stop the run. You thought Eric Kendrix could still play a linebacker. And you thought you were contending and all in. And we told yourself. And so that is something I've been enjoying because it's It's as glaring as the light through Jerry World right now. All the warts that they have have just been popping. I know pimples pop, but same thing. They just are just as shiny, as glossy as you can imagine.

[00:46:12]

Even little things, not really a little thing. Dak Prescott gets hurt. Why aren't you playing Trey Lance? You traded a fourth for him. Just give him some run. You guys aren't winning the Super Bowl this year. Figure out what you got. This is why you trade for him. The Mingo trade, Jonathan Mingo. You know, like a day late in dollar short. But also on top of that, Mingo, even if you look at his height, weight, speed stuff, he's like a gadget slot guy. You know who's best in the slot? Ceed Lamb. Why are you making that trade? You're making it worse. That's not actually a trade that's actually going to have a tangible effect on your team.

[00:46:47]

Well, we liked him in the draft seven years ago. We got to get him.

[00:46:50]

That NFL tape doesn't matter. Hey, look at what he did. I will miss that last year. I know. And guys like Macy Smith, when he gets drafted, they're like, no, he's going to stop the run for us. It's like, he didn't do that in college. What makes you think he's going to get better at it in the NFL? They let a guy like Jonathan Hankins go. He's just a role-playing nose tackle. But he was like their most significant player on the defense. And then they're just like, yeah, we don't need him, actually. He was like, no, you do. You do need him on your defense. So I guess this is a negative thing, but it is something I've been enjoying.

[00:47:22]

No, I like it because the other thing you didn't mention was, and this never happens, but the over-under for them during the summer actually moved down and went from 10:30 to 9:30 wins. And because everybody was like, this team sucks. What are we doing? I can't even find nine wins in their schedule. And then that cowboy infrastructure moves in. He was like, No, no, actually. Once they get CD signed and Dax signed, they stink. That's a good one. That's a good start. It is fun to say, I told you, the Dallas Cowboys. What's number four? It is.

[00:47:58]

Number four is surprising defenses, improve defenses. This is a way. So this was my Eagles one, one of them. But teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, the Broncos, the Lions, even teams like the Chiefs who had a really good defense last year are even better this year. The Bills, who are expected to have a little drop off on defense. Who could have guessed that? Yeah. They are just cooking and doing a great job there. So I'll start with the Eagles. And this is more Vic Fangio going like, oh, yeah, this is why everyone used to want to hire Vic Fangio. And they have a lot of good young players and new faces really stepping up for them. It's been really fun. Quinian Mitchell, their first-round pick, corner from Toledo has been great. As a rookie, rookie corner is really hard.

[00:48:44]

It seems like we've had good Rookey corners this year, just in general. We have.

[00:48:48]

And just really the last two, three years, it used to be like year two, you expect a corner to be even baseline. It's like a rookie in the NBA. Even if they're average, you're like, Hell, yeah. That's good. But with Quinian, it's He's, No, that's a good starter as a rookie. And he takes it two guys, which is really fun. He can actually go against number ones. But then Cooper Dajine, who plays in the slot for them, has been tremendous. Both of these two guys are going to be on the short list for defense or rookie of the year at the end of the year. And that was their first two picks. And Dajine from the slot, it's a very important position in this defense. How much they have to do in the run game, how much they have to blitz because of the soft coverages they run. And he has been awesome. Some huge plays on fourth tackles Jamar Chase in space when they played the bangles. Last week, he tackled CeeDee Lamb in space. No one really does that to those two guys. And there he is as a rookie acting like it's nothing.

[00:49:40]

Those two rookies, I mean, even other guys, Milton Williams is a guy that was a role player for them, is now a starting defense of linemen. He's in a contract here, and he's going to get paid. So even a guy like that, Jalen Carter, a defensive tackle, looks like a future all pro. He's fantastic. And then Zack Bond, who's a linebacker, retread, That he's a former Wisconsin guy, and mostly he played as an undersized pass rusher. And Vic Fangio was like, We're going to try you off-ball. And he looks like a pro-baller. And it's like an inspired player.

[00:50:12]

We're going to- Vic Fangio is back.

[00:50:14]

He's fully back. Fully back, and maybe Howie hit a little magic this year. Howie was getting a little like, okay, that's how we always nail it. And then this year, it looks like he's just rejuvenated all of that. So, yeah.

[00:50:26]

You probably just jinks them because we're taping this before they play it. They're definitely giving up 45 tonight.

[00:50:32]

But even stat-wise, they're seven in the DVOA. I look at, I think, success rate and explosive play rate, and I combine them. People want me to call it sex rate, but then someone today said, let's call it suplex rate. And I was like, Oh, yeah, there we go. But they're second in that right now. And then even the other defenses I mentioned, the Broncos defense is a lot of fun.

[00:50:54]

Out of the defenses you mentioned, I wasn't surprised by the Chargers because their coaching situation last year combined, they had real talent, right? Yeah. The Bills have McDermott. They have the history, at least. I didn't really understand how they were going to get all the players to pull it off, but they did. The Broncos, I don't get at all. The advanced stats for the Broncos are nuts. They're top five all over the place in all these key categories. They passed the eye test, too. I thought they did a great job against the Chiefs last week. It feels real to me. I don't get it.

[00:51:27]

Yeah. They just have a lot of good. Patrick Sertan, if he wasn't heard, he'd be up there with defense player of the year. We'd be talking about him. He's the best corner in the game. He's incredible. But then their other corner, Raleigh Moss, is good. And not even just in the sense that he's the first white corner since Jason Seahorn. He's a legitimately good player. So it went from a bit to like, oh, no, no, he's just good. We don't have to make jokes anymore. So they have those guys and they just play press. Man, take it to them. Vance Joseph is really aggressive. He some weight Phillips to him. So it's a lot of like, okay, we're in man coverage. That guy's blocking blitz. Then they call green dogs and they don't let you breathe. But you have to really perform to beat them. Yeah, they're outstanding. I mean, they give up 70 points in a game last year, and now every metric, they're top five. It's legit. It's very legit. Zack Allen has had a good year. Defense lineman there, the fourth Watt brother. No, they're a very good unit. The Chargers, too, has been very impressive.

[00:52:28]

Chargers, yeah, not surprising at all that they would be good, but I think they're even a little better than I thought. I was pretty bullish on them. We'll see with the bills.

[00:52:37]

The Chiefs game is going to tell us a lot with the bills because there's been a couple of games this year where it's like, Oh, do they have a good defense?

[00:52:45]

But then that might be the good bad team on defenses. I want to see, can they shut down the Chiefs? Because I feel like the Chiefs, we're getting into it with million dollar pics later, but Chiefs has another dog. I'm just always buying every time. I'm just sorry.

[00:53:05]

Plus money Mahomes? Hell, yeah. That's what you do. No, and the Chiefs, I'm trying to find a better term than this, but natural answers to The Bills play all this cover, too. And then Mahomes now is like, okay, he's just going to nickel and dime. It might be a Juju Smith-Schuster game as far as underneath throws, if he's healthy. It might be a Travis Kelsi decent game as well. But the Chiefs, their offense just so brutally efficient this year. It's just they're going to take their five-year gains and you're going to like it. No defense has stopped it so far. So the Bills playing cover, too. They're not very aggressive. It's like, well, you need to be aggressive. You need to take the fight to the Chiefs. Otherwise, they're fine taking these five, six-year gains and punching you in the face over and over.

[00:53:51]

Little Hopkins seven-yearter. All right, what do you got for number three?

[00:53:55]

Number three, and this is just even talking about the Bills, but a cop out here because I want to talk about a few things. Afc juggernaught quarterbacks. This is Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrell, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, the big five in the AFC.

[00:54:09]

The big thing with that is Herbert's back.

[00:54:12]

So back. I was worried. He was unbelievably back. I was scared, especially since I have some dynasty shares in him that I maybe got a little worried about it. But how about the vibes with Harba and Herbert? The buddy comedy with this is just amazing. It's genuine. And you could see Harba really... Did you see any of the videos from this past week?

[00:54:33]

I think that should be its own... I think NFL Network should just have a three-hour show of all the locker room speeches. I love all that stuff. I think it's such a fascinating window into what the locker room is actually like. Who's the leader? Who gives the speech at the end before they go, All right, everybody all in. I just love that stuff.

[00:54:57]

And how the game balls work. Yeah. Are they giving it to the owner? Bomp, bomp. All right. But no, that's a very real thing. Who speaks after the coach? Even that Harba video or the chargers video, they're like, Hey, Herbert. He's like, Justin, just talk to us. And then Herbert gave the little two-second speech, which is perfect. But again, it's a little microcosm of what each locker room is. No, that's such a great point.

[00:55:23]

One of the things I did with over-unders this year, which I'm doing really well on this year, is I realized I wasn't putting enough thought into good coaches versus bad coaches. And even something like the Chargers situation where it's like, well, I don't know, they're over and there's eight and a half, but Harba, and maybe it's a little too high. And I'm like, they're going from Staley to Harbaugh. That's got to be worth five wins. It just has to. There's no way it's not. We've seen it happen over and over again. Same thing with Dan Quinn not being Ron Rivera. I don't know how many wins that's worth, but it's got to be worth a couple.

[00:55:58]

Just having an energy sometimes works or just being competent. With Harbault, it's not like they're doing anything crazy. They're just competent. They don't get penalized. They don't turn the ball over. All their scheme stuff is sound. The defensive coordinator is a star, Jesse Minter, to hook Warhol from Michigan. Yeah, he's not going to be there. He's getting tired. He's gone very soon. They get him for another year. It's a miracle. But again, sometimes it's just having a high baseline. And when you have a dude at quarterback, that's enough. You Even talking about the Broncos with Bo Nicks, Bo Nicks isn't making mistakes, and the rest of the team is competent. So it's like, yeah, now they might be a playoff team because they're just not idiots. They're above the idiot line, the Mendoza line of coaching.

[00:56:43]

Do you buy into the sidelines stuff? Do you watch the sidelines when you watch games? Because that's another thing I find myself doing more and more every year. And the chargers. The chargers have a really good sideline, the reactions. Oh, yeah. You know what I mean? Somebody fights, it's a third of nine, and the guy fights and gets the extra half-yard. And you'll see 15 chargers jumping out in the field getting fired up. And I'm like, oh, that's a good sign.

[00:57:07]

That's real. Well, that's what turned me on to... I was always an optimist with them, but Dan Campbell's Lines was his first year with them was even they're getting their faces battered in every week. That sideline was into it. Yeah. Shannonhans' first year with the 49ers in 2017. Bad team. And defense is trying to tackle everyone. Everyone's going nuts about touch down. There's buy-in or just being locked in. You can see sometimes when someone scores and how other players react to that because they're aware that that call was happening. They're aware that that design was meant to do that. So again, it's just reading in between the lines of, are they locked in? Are they not? I mean, you just watch the bears. You can just tell.

[00:57:51]

It was really dramatically noticeable. And on the flip side, Arizona, where you watch Arizona, you're like, whoa, does this team have good chemistry? It's first time in 10 years.

[00:58:05]

I could segue to my number two, the Cardinals.

[00:58:08]

Let's hear it.

[00:58:10]

They're my number two thing for this list. The thing that I'm enjoying most is just the Cardinals in general. Every aspect of the Cardinals I enjoy watching because they are exactly what we're talking about here. Everybody's locked in. I mean, Marvin Harrison Jr. Fist pumping after a run for a countdown where he has to make a block. The So that's the number four pick overall, who's probably been a star since he was 15. They're doing the dirty work and celebrating someone else scoring. And then I look over, no offense to the guy because I really liked him, Roman Dunesday for the bears. Something happens, he's just like, All right. Which is not how Roman Dunesday was in college. It just speaks to what the buy-in is for each of these teams or each of these players in the units. But yeah, thank you for segmenting me to the Cardinals because on the last show I was on, I was pretty optimistic about them. This, hopefully, was what I was talking about. But offense, they're looking like a top five offense.

[00:59:07]

Were you expecting them to be this physical? That's the thing that I was surprised by.

[00:59:12]

That's what they bought into. Last year, the offense line played way above, punched way above their weight. Having James Connor sets the tone, too. But just they're buying with the tight ends. They had Elijah Higgins last year in Trey McBride, and then they drafted Tip Ryman in the third round. I was like, okay, I see what you guys are leaning We're not getting finessey tight ends. We're actually getting like, brawlers that can actually do stuff. And they're drafting Paris Johnson Jr, their left tackle from last year. They're all tone setter types. So even their other receiver, Michael Wilson, he's big and we'll do dirty work. And that's why I was pretty optimistic about them, was they're doing a lot of... Everything was sound, conceptually. And sound, but very traditional in some senses, but just enough modernizations. It's like watching Scream for the first It's like, oh, yeah, this is a slasher movie. Okay, but you're doing the meta thing. Okay, that's cool. They just do a little bit of motion, a little bit of tweaks and inverting roles. They do a little bit of everything in the run game, but it's really sound. They're not running against bad boxes.

[01:00:16]

Kyler is playing fantastic right now.

[01:00:20]

So our friend Mina threw him into the MVP conversation. She was like, tipping a waiter. I was surprised. I wasn't ready to go there with Kyler because I've seen them win games where he didn't have to do that much. But where do you sit on that? Do you see that?

[01:00:38]

Man, he's got a better argument than most. I'll put it that way. I have those AFC, the five AFC quarterbacks that I just mentioned, basically as my top five. So I think Kyler would probably be the one next one in. First four out. Oh, interesting. I mean, Kyler, QBR is just one stat, but Kyler is second in the NFL right now in QBR. Lamar Jackson is one, Kyler is two, Joe Burrows is three. And this is the most he's playing real quarterback. They give him... This is continuing on my Kingsbury offense stuff was that has a high floor, but the ceiling, I think, is lower because of what they can get to and what they ask of their players. With Kyler and Drew Petsing, their offense coordinator, they said, No, you're playing quarterback. We're putting you under center. You are killing plays. You are pointing out who Who has who in protection. And there's some rough stretches early in this year, even last year, even some of the good games. Now, I would say the last three, four weeks, it's like, you can see it. You can see the confidence really bubbling with him. He's been under center 30 % of the time.

[01:01:45]

This year, the first four and a half years of his career, he was under center for 125 dropbacks total in his first four and a half years. He's been under center for 55 dropbacks this year. So he's already almost getting to half. Oh my God. Yeah. So 125 and four and a Half a year is under Cliff Kingsbury, and half a year of Drew Petsing, 55 just this year. That's real. That ties into the run game. That is tying into their play action games really good. When I mentioned their little tweaks they do, they're modern. I don't say modern, just understanding what to do. Like a bootleg, just a normal bootleg that everyone runs. Usually, you run it with zone where everybody steps the same way. You remember the old Texans, Gary Kubiak videos they would show? What they do, and it's not new, but they're one of the few teams that leans into it. They pull a guard when they run a bootleg. And most teams try to avoid doing that because it can get a little dicey up front and everything. But they're well coached. They do only against the right fronts, and it ties in to what their run game is because they pull so many guys.

[01:02:46]

And once they pull that, it tracks the linebackers. You should watch it against the Jets. It was comical. The Jets' linebackers are sprinting with it because the guard is pulling. So again, they're confident that they can do this little tweak. But again, it sets up everything because they're going under center, because they're running the ball well. They can get to that stuff, and it turns into 15-year gashes to Marvin Harrison or to Trey McBride, who Trey McBride is also playing a top three tight end. So that also helps, too. But it's just a... And then, shoot, the defense is fun. There are- It's crazy.

[01:03:15]

I mean, they were underdogs at home against the Jets last week. Insane. I thought that was one of the weirdest lines of the year. When House and I were doing the Milleandard Picks, House was afraid of it because it was like, what's going on with this line? These Because two teams are not at the same level. No.

[01:03:32]

I know. I looked at the injury report after that because I remember being like, did I forget someone's hurt? Is Kyler out or something? But no, no one watches the Cardinals, and then we We did updates about Jets warmups.

[01:03:47]

We watch them because we're on the West Coast and there's three games in the 125 spot. What's your number one?

[01:03:54]

Well, and this is tying into a little bit what the Cardinals are doing and other teams have mentioned, but it's the run game and the running back renaissance. We're going through this here. This is what has juiced me up about the NFL this year. The Cardinals are a part of this in their run game, but this is not only just the investment teams have made in Runningbacks, which we have seen with Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, even other guys that were signed over the years. James Connor was a free agent addition for the Cardinals. We go one after another, Josh Jacobs with the packers. But also the first rounders teams have made on the runningbacks have been paying dividends. Béjane Robinson, Shamir Gibbs with the Lions. All these teams with- You got to throw Najee in there.

[01:04:36]

I would throw him in. I think Najee has been pretty good.

[01:04:39]

Najee went from... It was funny. I actually was like, he should not be getting the ball anymore. It feels like when I said that on my podcast, after that, he has just run harder than he ever has in his career. He inspired him. Yeah, right. Yeah, just me. Football 301, check it out. But the Steelers, though, they're part of this, too. I've been always an Arthur Smith apologist. And now with their offensive line. Zack Frazier, their center, is legitimately one of the best rookies in the NFL at any position. And then they have another rookie right guard, Mason McCormick, who's playing well. Isaac Sumolo, their left guard, has come back from injury. Now you can feel that beef coming back with their run game, which has been a lot of fun along with Russell Wilson Moonballs. But the Bills run game is really good. I've been calling it spread bully because they'll spread people out or and then they'll just run it down your throat. James Cooke has done a lot better as being more of a sound running back. Ray Davis is really punching people in the face, and it's really just taking advantage of...

[01:05:37]

Defenses are terrified of Josh Allen. So Bills are just like, All right, we'll take six yards.

[01:05:43]

Well, you're also seeing bad teams like Carolina last week. We're like, We suck. Let's just run Hubbard over and over and over again. Maybe this will work. It actually worked.

[01:05:51]

They're on the short list here. But Ravens, I already mentioned them. The eagles realizing, Oh, yeah, Saquon Barkley is good. Let's just get on their center and hand them the ball. No, the Panthers is a great example. They invested in their guards, and that was to help out Bryce Young and keep the pocket, the interior of the pocket clean. But then now it's paying dividends with the Trooba Hubbard, and then they can just pound the rock 20 times. I mean, this really... Defenses are giving you this. So you have to invest in it.

[01:06:16]

So what does this mean for the draft? Is this a running back going to be the same assets they were or are we going to flip this?

[01:06:24]

I think it's still going to be like maybe... Well, this class is, of course, you have Ashton Jante from Boise State, who I have number eight on my big board. I just did a podcast with Dame Brogler from The Athletic. He has him number six overall on his big board. Oh my God. He's incredible. I don't know if you've watched him yet, but he is one of the most fun watches in any sports. Ashton Jante, running back from Boise State. But then there's a lot of day two backs. It's just a difference now where these guys have to play all three downs. The only star running back that doesn't do pass protection is Derrick Henry. But that's Derrick Henry. He can get away with it because he's 6'5, so he's 250, and we can give him the ball 40 times. So we're getting to this new thing where it's like, yeah, you can't just go, oh, runningbacks don't matter in the sense that... I'm sorry. You can say runningbacks don't matter. Don't take them in the first round, but you can't just ignore the position.

[01:07:18]

Like Dallas State.

[01:07:19]

You have to still. Like Dallas State. You still have to invest. Look at the Vikings, who Sam Darnals had a good year, turning into pumpkin a little right now. Defense has got a lot of headlines of Brian Flores. They also took Aaron Jones. They signed Aaron Jones. Totally changed their run game because he's explosive. And now they don't have to rely on another 20-yard Justin Jefferson play. Okay, Aaron Jones can maybe get us a 15 10-yard gain that we didn't have before. So you have to invest in these positions that even it used to be a throw away, but now I think day two, it's going to turn into like, oh, no, we got to take another guy. Even if we have one, we need two if we're going to really invest in this game.

[01:07:57]

It's why I haven't given up on the Dolphins yet. Just because nine and eight is going to be in the seven seed. They didn't even run the ball that well against the Rams because the Rams front has been pretty good. I think the Pats are going to have trouble with it this week. But I think they're going to be able to run the ball as it gets colder, which is unusual for our Miami team.

[01:08:16]

Miami team, right?

[01:08:17]

Yeah, they have a bunch of deals.

[01:08:19]

But no, that's a great- Wait, I have a question based on your thing. Yeah.

[01:08:24]

Do you have a favorite random non-star arrow pointing up running as we head toward fantasy playoffs? Are you buying the guy in Denver? Big wave for our guy this week. Andre Gastame?

[01:08:37]

Yeah. Andre Gastame? Yeah, I am. I was pretty high on him in this draft. He was one of my more favorite backs. Non-standard. Oh, man. Well, Tyrone Tracy, everyone's got him now.

[01:08:47]

No, he's already happened.

[01:08:49]

Yeah, he's already swooped up by everybody. God, no.

[01:08:51]

Are you a Braille and Allen stock buried in your shoe box up in your attic? I do.

[01:08:59]

He's a Wisconsin guy. I've been hearing about how young he is for about five years now. I know. Yeah. No. Oh, Roshon Johnson made me for the bears as maybe just a flyer because I don't know, they invested in DeAndre Swift, but it's like DeAndre Swift is making a lot of mistakes. So like in just other things. And Roshon Johnson is a little safer. So maybe he takes a few more touches there. So maybe that's one. Looking on the tier runningbacks. Yeah. If you're throwing some dark throws. Ray Davis is the other one for the bills, but he's already probably been. I I like him.

[01:09:31]

I like him a lot. To be runningbacks, it's like seeing a good-looking actor or actress or just hearing a good voice and you just know immediately. I feel like with runningbacks, you know right away. It's like, Oh, that guy's good.

[01:09:43]

That's it. It's the easiest position to scout. Yeah. It's the one where you're doing.

[01:09:47]

Like, Ray Davis, you're like, Oh, that guy's good. Oh, yeah, he'll help the bills. You just know immediately.

[01:09:51]

Oh, he keeps getting positive yards. This is good. Yeah. In this class, too, in next year's draft class, there's just a ton of day two guys. It's So there's a rejuvenation of that position that's happening right now.

[01:10:03]

All right, Nate Tice, before we go, I'll give you 75 seconds to not panic about the Timberwolves.

[01:10:14]

Oh, no. I'm panicked. They need a players-only meeting. They miss Kyle Anderson. They miss him so bad. My guy, Slo-mo, they really miss him right now because he was such a glue guy for them as far as just the second unit defense and just also an auxiliary ball handler and all that. I still have faith, but I was also wanting them to make the freaking semis for the in-season tournament so I can watch them here in Vegas. Can we keep the NBA Cup? Can we I was like, Can you guys focus on the NBA Cup so I can watch you here in Vegas? But no, I am a little worried because there's a little bit too much of this lackadaisicalness, especially on the defensive end. Rudy Gober has said, Oh, yeah, it's on me, but that's Rudy. And it doesn't help when Karl-Anthony Towns is dropping 40 something in New York, even though they lost. Still, that doesn't help. So I have a little bit more panic, even though I'm still optimistic about this team because I just love Anthony Edwards so much.

[01:11:14]

I said this on Tuesday Night's pod because we did a pod after NBA Cup, and I was saying with the Timberwolves, it's early. You don't want to panic. Edwards is obviously better than he was last year, so that's a bonus. With that said, I just like the team from March, April, May more. I thought they were so unique. I didn't really know what the ceiling was. It was, but they were a one of one. There was nobody else like them in the league, and now I just feel like they're another team.

[01:11:44]

It's one of my biggest beliefs in sports is you got to zag when everyone else is zigging and going, We need all these swing guys. We need all these wings. And they were like, No, we're getting three centers. And we're going to just go down your throat because you're like a or triple option team in college. Shit, we only face this once a year. Like, oh, God, all right, how do we defend this? Oh, God, they're so unique. And yeah, in a playoff time when you get the repeat matchups. But the thing is, who's still the... Well, other than the Thunder, the Nuggets. They had the best counter for their Nuggets. They could just keep throwing size at them. One after the guy, Jokić and all the guys.

[01:12:22]

I think that Dallas series is really... Well, it's two things. One is financially, it's just so much harder to keep anything together. And it was clearly a financial move first. But I also think that Dallas beat them in a way that made them think like, all right, we solved Denver, but now we have Dallas and OKC to worry about for the rest of the decade, and maybe we should zag again. But I don't like when you You're doing something that you're being mentioned with some of the great teams in the last 35 years of the league at, and now you just seem like you're an ordinary team defenseman. I know they're not ordinary because they have Gober and they have Edwards. Mcdaniels is playing better, but it feels different. I'm not going to panic until 30 games. I know you're an actual fan, so you're panicking now.

[01:13:08]

No, I don't. Well, for me, my NBA fandom really starts after the All-Star game because that's when I'm like, it's perfect. Super Bowl happens, NBA All-Star game. Okay, now I can start paying attention to other things. But now they're on a lot more national TV games, and so I can't avoid them. And so, yeah, I do have some doubt, but I am an optimist overall. I do trust Edwards. I do trust Finch.

[01:13:29]

So are you rooting against Towns like a scorn lover? And he's on a new team. You're just like, I hope that guy goes two for 14 every night.

[01:13:37]

I wouldn't say it's rooting against, but I would just say, you know. Knicks fans get ready for some bad fouls at the worst times and get ready for some frustrating- You're in the Honeybooth phase. Get ready for some frustrating turnovers where you're like, Weren't you a coaches kid? Yeah. You know, get ready for those on top of the moments of brilliance where you watch one of the best offensive big men you'll ever see in skilled guys. But yeah, he's a very frustrating player. I'll tell you, Carl, I've had some swear words with Carl Anthony Talons and myself while watching him.

[01:14:09]

Nate Tice, great to see you. You can read and follow Nate through the whole Yahoo Sports Network. Great to see you. Thanks for being here on Drake May Island with me.

[01:14:20]

Thanks for having me. I'll look over your yard. Let me know if you ever need sugar.

[01:14:30]

All right, we're bringing House back to do Million Dollar Picks. Before we do that, it's time for today's player bundle segment presented by our friends at State Farmhouse. It's tough to crown the best play in football history. No one can deny the magic when the right two players work together to pull off the unexpected. For me, braided and Edelman during the comeback against the Seahawks that culminated in the Malcolm Butler game. Little Edelman-Brady magic. What do you have in Washington history?

[01:14:57]

It's got to be involved It's got to involve John Riggins. It's got to involve Joe Theisman. Joe Theisman handed off to John Riggens, Super Bowl 17, 1983. There we go. That's the one.

[01:15:14]

I remember as a kid, John Riggens, who everyone was saying was a character. When we were kids, we didn't know what that meant, but it could have gone in a variety of directions. But one of the reasons he was a character was he got the Mohawk haircut once. Remember? Years before on another team.

[01:15:33]

He also told the Supreme Court justice to loosen up.

[01:15:38]

He also did that.

[01:15:39]

Loosen up, Sandy, baby.

[01:15:41]

He was a true '80s character and also had a little synergy with Joe Hasman. You know what else is better together? Building your home and auto insurance with the personal price plan from State Farm. The personal price plan, which you call the place so you can choose the right coverage at a price that's right for you. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with the personal price plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer, availability amount of discounts and savings and eligibility. Very by state. All right, we're going to talk some million dollar pics. I'm still upset about what happened last week. We basically split last week. And one of the reasons, even though I felt like we were all over the slate and we We couldn't figure out a good way to bet on the Lions, so we did the Lions first half, Lions game, that lost. We really liked the Dolphins, and we tried to get cute. We did Dolphins plus four and a half with the over 42 and a half.

[01:16:44]

And of course, They just figured out a way to not get to 40 points in that game. I don't know what the Rams are doing. So we lost those two. But we hit Eagles Chargers tease, we had Stewards Washington, we had Cards Jets. I feel like I have a nice feel for the slate, and I like this week. I don't know, do you want to do Chiefs Bills last or first?

[01:17:05]

Let's do it first. Let's go ahead and just crush this because I'm having a hard time with this game. I'm going to confess to you right off the top. It feels like a Bills spot to me. It feels like a great spot for the Bills at home coming off of the last two seasons, regular season wins against the Chiefs. It matters. Now look, with where the bills are with only two losses, it's crucial in terms of the seating for the AFC. So that would be the argument for the chiefs going all out here. The chiefs are not walking in here looking to concede anything to the bills. But I don't know. It just feels like a bill spot to me.

[01:17:57]

As in a bills minus two and a half, you'd want to bet that spot and bet against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, even though his... What is he, 13, one and one as an underdog career?

[01:18:08]

No. Under no circumstances am I betting against Patrick Mahomes.

[01:18:11]

All right. I just wanted to make sure. I thought you... I didn't know if you were a buzz house or I just did Heroin House because there's no way we're betting against Patrick Mahomes.

[01:18:19]

No, no, no, no, no chance. Absolutely no chance.

[01:18:22]

I do think it's probably going to be a close game, and I was looking at a couple of spots to bump that from a plus two and a to either a plus three and a half or a plus four and a half. I think the Chiefs can also win. Of course. I'm saying we could just bet the money line. But the Bills, it's a more important game for them for nine different reasons.

[01:18:47]

That's what I think.

[01:18:47]

That part worries me. I wonder if the Chiefs a month from now when they have all their weapons back will be a slightly different thing. But I just like the football matchup for them with the type of defense the Bills have versus what the Chiefs have just been good at, are these long drives, third and fours, third and sevens, just moving the chains, moving the chains. And I think you can do that against the Bills and then go deep on them. I think the fact that Baltimore looks so good against that Buffalo D that time, I don't think that's not nothing. When they went against a really good quarterback, they got torched.

[01:19:24]

Yeah. What scares me inside the Xs and the O's is how her Buffalo is at the receiver position. If they try to establish the run, then you're in trouble because the Chiefs have a dominant run defense.

[01:19:38]

The Chiefs will swalve that. It looks like Dalton Cacade might not play. Even if he plays this hurt, Amari Cooper's hurt. I don't know what's going to... We're taping this on a Thursday. I don't think this is the right version of the Bills team. Because I think, realistically, you need to get to 27 points to beat this Chief's team. It does seem like. Make them put up points back. But anyway, there's a couple of things I have with Chiefs plus three and a half or Chiefs plus four and a half tied to the lions.

[01:20:08]

Let me ask you this before you do it. Why aren't we just auto-teasing the Chiefs, taking the Chiefs from two and a half up to eight and a half?

[01:20:17]

I looked at that. Couldn't really find the second team that I felt awesome about. You suggested the Dolphins. I don't trust the Dolphins. I don't trust this jockey Mike McDaniel. I don't want to put him in a tease.

[01:20:29]

I I'll confess I've had some misgivings my own self.

[01:20:32]

When Tua trying to tackle that dude on the interception, and it seems like he got hit in that. I just don't want any part of that. So one of the things I was thinking was you could take the Chiefs to plus four and a half. You could do the Detroit first half game bet against the Jaguars, who they're favored by 13 and a half against Mac Jones. That's minus 102. You could do Chiefs plus three and a half, Lyons minus two and a half against the Jags. That's minus 119, basically. I like that one. Maybe that's the move. I like that one. I like that one. Buy that extra half point. Lyons just have to win by three.

[01:21:06]

Yeah.

[01:21:07]

Okay. Now we're talking- Is Mac Jones going to win in Detroit?

[01:21:09]

Nope. No, sir. No, he is not.

[01:21:14]

He's not winning. Okay. So we'll mark that down. Next one, both of us like, the Broncos are home for the Falcons, and this line is under three, and it's a gift from the gods. Denver's defense, first yards per play, second in sacks, third in QB hits, their top 10 against the run and the pass. Atlanta's defense, 32nd in sacks, 31st in QB hits, 24th against the pass, 28th against third down. Here's my point. I think Denver's D can chase Kirk a little bit, make some plays. I think Bo Nix is going to have time to throw, and he feels like he's getting a little bit better every week. Nate Tite talked about it. It's turned into like he's a serviceable starter. They can run the ball. I like this rookie that's going to play for them, that everybody's grabbing, including in our keeper league, I grabbed him. Esteen, Estein, whatever his name is. Yeah, whatever. It seems like they're excited about them, but I think they can run the ball. I don't think the Falcons are good. How about that?

[01:22:20]

Not only do I share this opinion, I think the Broncos, I'm going to be looking at some alt lines to lay.

[01:22:26]

We did that last week.

[01:22:27]

To lay for Denver. Well, no, I'm going to lay extra to get some juice on it for Denver because I think they might beat the hell out of Atlanta. It's Atlanta to Denver, the altitude. It's outdoors. So the version of the Atlanta offense that has been successful, the wins that they've collected, that's not going to be... And I just think this Denver defense is going to be getting up the field and into Kirk Cousins and making him uncomfortable. And Bo Nicks has shown us he's got a string of over 200-yard games. He's competent. Yeah, a couple of touch downs. I think it's a great spot for Denver. Plus, John Payton is not going to lose three straight games. They lost to Baltimore. Fair enough. They lost to the Chiefs in a game. They had one until the last play of the game.

[01:23:19]

Until the Chiefs cheated. Let's be honest. What the hell was that? Have you seen some of the Internet videos of that? Are you allowed to put 19 guys on one side of the line and just They knocked the left guard flying backwards with seven guys? That we outlawed that.

[01:23:34]

That's the A-side team right there. That's the Chiefs. That's the A-side team.

[01:23:39]

Atlanta on the road. They've had four road games so far. We two, Philly. Game was over. Philly fucked it up, and Atlanta scored at the end one by one. Carolina, they killed. Tampa, barely won, easily could have lost. Then New Orleans, they lost. You look at through their wins, and it's just like, they easily could be three. They have six wins. They also easily could be three and seven. There's three plays away from being a three and seven team. I just don't think they're impressive. I thought that New Orleans loss was awful.

[01:24:15]

I don't think there's any difference between these two teams in terms of power ranking and all the rest of it. I prefer Denver.

[01:24:26]

Me, too. I think Denver is like, Oh, sorry, you lost to Baltimore and Kansas City. I still feel like they're- Back to back weeks. Yeah, they're the good, bad team. I'm in on Denver. So Denver minus two and a half, we'll mark that. I hesitate to bring this one up, but Colts plus three and a half against the Jets It feels like a unique chance to bet against a downtrod in Jets team that has sucked the soul and life and spirit out of the fans, out of the city, out of the players and the team. The Rodgers thing, Tim Keown had a thing on ESPN. He had a whole story about the last four weeks of Rodgers. You read that and it's like, This is bad. It was not a lot of smoking gun stories, but it's just like, this sucks. This has gone. It couldn't have gone worse. Their season's over. I don't think they like playing with Rodgers. They built the whole team around him, and he's banged up and probably broken. And then you have the Colts who are getting points. The Jets, they're 30th rushing. The Colts, that's the one way to beat them is to run on them.

[01:25:40]

The Jets are bad at running the ball as anyone as Brees Hall knows. I just feel like the Colts can get on track. But Anthony Richardson is starting.

[01:25:50]

So here's the thing, and I do want to lean into the Colts, but it would be with caution. There is a bet out there that I think is a tremendous bet, and it's Anthony Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards. I think he might run for 100 yards. I'm not suggesting anybody wager on that, but I think that the commitment that Shane Steiken is going to make to getting Richardson's confidence back, the thing that he is best at is moving the football with his legs. They are going to give that man the green light. And the thing that we have seen with this Jets defense again and again and again is they are not tough. That is not a tough defense. They don't like to take on big... What we saw in terms of the Cardinals running the ball right down the Jets throat, the 50-yard play right before halftime with the Cardinals against the Jets, that's the identity of this Jets defense. I I love the Anthony Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards. That's one of my favorite bets of the weekend.

[01:27:05]

So they're plus three and a half. What if I offered you Colts minus two and a half parlayed with Anthony Richardson Over 38 and a half rushing yards is plus 366.

[01:27:20]

Am I allowed to say, Fuck yes on this podcast?

[01:27:25]

You know the answer to that. Because- What are you talking about?

[01:27:29]

I love that one.

[01:27:31]

The other way to do that is just do the Colts money line plus 176. That's plus 309.

[01:27:39]

Where do you think Aaron Rodgers is going to go in the Trump administration? He's going to be the ambassador. Where is he going to be the ambassador? The ambassador to- He's going to be the ambassador of Ascalusa.

[01:27:53]

Is he going to Mexico? Is he going to South America? Turning into my dad. Ayahuasca?

[01:28:00]

Ayahuasca.

[01:28:01]

Where is- Ayahuasca? He's going to be the ambassador of Ayahuasca.

[01:28:04]

Or he could be the ambassador of- And Ascalusa. They could send him to Tahiti. Where does he want to go? He's definitely going to get a job in the administration.

[01:28:19]

So Colts plus three and a half with Richardson over 38 and a half is plus 209.

[01:28:24]

Let's do that. That's fun.

[01:28:26]

Plus three and a half. It's a field goal game.

[01:28:28]

Don't you think that's fun?

[01:28:29]

Yeah. Yeah, that's a good one. Plus every time, Richardson... The fun thing about that is it is fun to watch him run. You sure you don't want to do the plus 366 where they win by two and a half?

[01:28:41]

Two and a small. We did last week, we put 10 ran on some ridiculous, both the Giants and somebody else to win. Oh, San Francisco.

[01:28:50]

That lost.

[01:28:51]

Those two teams.

[01:28:52]

All right. By the way, I don't feel like the Colts are that bad. I thought Flacko, and I thought it was the right move to start him. Flacko was terrible. It's officially over. I don't know what happened to him in the Browns for those five, six weeks, but he's back to being the Joe Flacko we remembered and love betting against.

[01:29:10]

I tried to do my Ursay impression on Monday because I'm so on our East Coast Bias podcast. I'm a thousand % positive that Ursay, after Richardson tapped out and said that in that press conference, he came downstairs and, Get this guy. This guy, I can't have this guy running.

[01:29:31]

He's a critter. Yeah, he just got mad. I can't have a critter running my team, Shane.

[01:29:37]

You got to get this guy. Shane's like, Okay, it's your team. It wasn't the right football decision. It wasn't the right franchise decision. But they did what the owner wanted, and now we're back to the football plan. Shane Steigen has the football plan, so we're doing the right thing here.

[01:29:59]

Next I think we are in violent agreement. Chargers against the Bengos. Chargers laying minus one and a half. Bengals in a must-win spot, a very popular public team. Explosive offense, fourth passing. Burrows been a fantasy God, and yet I love the chargers. Is this our argue pick?

[01:30:25]

I don't know. The concern is burrowed these nuts. We're these nuts. He is on a heater. He's been incredible. Those weapons are unlike any weapons that the chargers have seen to this point.

[01:30:44]

Yeah, but we don't even know if Higgins is playing. It's still- He's got the red flag next to him. Believe me, I have him in fantasy. It's questionable.

[01:30:54]

And they can't run the ball, the bangles. They can't run the ball.

[01:30:57]

Cannot run the ball.

[01:30:58]

This This is the bangles season because they are behind both the chargers and the broncos. And if they lose to either one of these teams, that's it. Season's over. They can't climb back.

[01:31:10]

Hot take. Season's not over.

[01:31:12]

Why?

[01:31:13]

I don't think it's over if they lose the game.

[01:31:15]

Give me the rundown.

[01:31:18]

I think nine wins is going to get the seven-seated in the AFC. Right now, they have four wins. They lose this chargers game. They have at home, Pittsburgh, Week 13, at Dallas, at Tennessee. Those are going to be two wins. Now we're at six. Home, Cleveland, that's seven. They get to play Denver, Week 17. That's eight. And then they're at Pittsburgh Week 18. So it's not necessarily... They just have to split the Pittsburgh games, beat Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, Denver, and they get to nine wins.

[01:31:55]

But they need the chargers and the Broncos both to fall off.

[01:31:59]

They Yeah, but they could take care of Denver by themselves in week 17. Look, it wouldn't be great if they lost this game. I'm not saying it would be.

[01:32:09]

The reason to like the chargers is because very quietly, Herbert is healthy. He's throwing the ball downfield. They have vertical weapons. And Herbert is, speaking of being in his bag, there's a physicality to him. You forget that he's a tough SOB. He's 6'6. That big boy has played hurt a lot in his career rear. We've seen him take shots, and he's taking on the personality of Harbaugh a little bit. I like this little bit of a swagger that I'm seeing out of them. I like the idea of the chargers here. I want to just be cautious. That's all.

[01:32:48]

They have six wins. They're playing... This is the hardest part of their schedule. Home sincey, home Baltimore, at Atlanta, at KC. So realistically, they probably have to go two and two to really feel good about the playouts. But This is where I've landed. I think the line is two points off. I think they should be three and a half point favorites. Wow. What have the bangles done to deserve anything? They're poorly coached. Their defense is awful. Their defense sucks.

[01:33:17]

They have four wins against teams that if you add up all their victories, are not nine victories. There are four wins that come against teams with nine total wins.

[01:33:27]

Their defense, 31st in the red zone, feels worse. 29th on third down, 27th on first down, giving them up. 23rd against the path. I think the chargers are legit good. And then I'll throw this at you. On one sideline, Jim Harbaugh. On the other side, Zack Taylor. I just think they have the advantages. And this is going to be a rare chargers home game where there's not going to be 30,000 of the other team's fans in the building because I feel like there's going to be 30,000 bagels fans there. I think people like this chargers team. There's an energy around them right now. I think Herbert's playing great. They could run the ball. I trust their receivers. Their receivers are getting open in third down. To me, this game reminds me of Arizona Jets last week, where I just feel like the line's off. I thought last week, I thought that Cardinal's line was idiotic, and I think this line's idiotic.

[01:34:22]

The chargers also have Greg Roman in their mix, who has all that experience from his time with Baltimore, going up against this bangles team, going up against this bangles defense. Yeah, I like the chargers.

[01:34:40]

This seems like a very public bet where people look at it and they go, Well, the bangles need the game, and Burrows playing well, so they're going to get it. I don't think that's a good reason. The chargers are a really good football team. I don't think they're on that Chiefs, Ravens, bills level, but I think they're a notch below, and I think they'd be a really dangerous seven-point underdog in a round one playoff game.

[01:35:02]

How about this? I was looking for a possible angle to tease the bangles. But then you look at the chargers wins, they're all by margin. All of the chargers wins have been at least seven points. Their defense Yeah, their defense gets better as the game goes along. They choke the life out of you.

[01:35:18]

Yeah.

[01:35:19]

All right.

[01:35:20]

All right. So here's the game I really want to dive into. Ravens stealers. It's in Pittsburgh. Ravens are favored by three. Stealers are seven and two. Mike Tomlin is a home underdog. A whole bunch of reasons to be like, of course, we've taken the stealers all year. I think we've taken them six times, a million dollar pick. We have a bunch of futures with them. The thing that worries me house This isn't the type of team that should succeed against Baltimore. Because Baltimore, 30 second against the pass, right? You want to throw on them. You want to do what Burrow did last week. Pittsburgh wants to win like they beat you guys in Washington last week, where they want to run the ball, pound the ball, control the clock, then every once in a while, throw deep down one of the sidelines, but win with defense. That's not how you beat Baltimore. You beat Baltimore by throwing the ball on them because they suck on past defense. You have Pittsburgh's 26th, but they're passing offense. Their defense, their top five and a whole bunch of stuff. First down, run, red zone, hits, turnovers. But Baltimore's offense is first in basically anything.

[01:36:29]

I Everything. It just feels to me like Baltimore is going to be able to control this game. Maybe they'll end up in Pittsburgh, end up splitting the series. But I don't like the spot for Pittsburgh. I think this is a bad matchup for them.

[01:36:43]

So how do you see So we just need to understand what we're walking into, right? Because underdogs in this series, which the other team is the underdog, 10, one-on-one against the spread, nine-on-three straight up in the last twelve matchups. So Just that. Each of the last five times that the Steelers have been underdogs, they have won outright. And over history, these two guys, Tomlin and Harbaugh, the underdog, they faced each other 32 times. The underdog is 23, 6, and 3 against the spread. It's just insane. Pittsburgh, the underdog, when When the line is three points or more, 18, 2, and 3 between these two guys. So that's what you're up against when you're walking into this. But look, here's the thing. I'm not going to make the whole handicap about one guy. It's just a big deal for Pittsburgh to not have Alex Hy Smith because what he brings to them pass rush-wise- I got it out.

[01:37:57]

A pass-rush is It's like a cash rush. I got it out. Was it a pass rush, Collinsworth? Yeah, he brought a balance. Now that balance... Because we've seen it where there's been guys missing. Helfa was missing for a couple of games, and it felt like they were back, and now all of a sudden, they're not back anymore.

[01:38:15]

There is not a defense on Earth that can slow down this Ravens team, it seems. So you have to believe that there's a significant advantage, which is crazy, for the Steelers in special teams. It's a rarity to talk about Baltimore being behind anybody else in special teams, but they are highly mediocre, highly average, because Justin Tucker has fallen off a little bit. Their punter shank the punt against the Raiders, and that is how the Raiders came back in week two. The Steelers are doing what they do. I mean, their third DVOA on special team.

[01:38:56]

Maybe it's a stay away.

[01:38:58]

I'd like a tease leg.

[01:39:00]

Oh, come on.

[01:39:02]

To me, I would tease the Steelers up to nine and tease the Chiefs up to eight and a half and just have these classic fist fight, almost like Jake Paul and Mike Tyson brought a classic heavyweight brawl and make sure you're getting enough points on both sides of it. Then just let these teams do what they do, which is play close games and rest peacefully with your winnings.

[01:39:30]

It's dumb. I don't feel great about it. Maybe it's a stay away.

[01:39:36]

It's probably a stay away because we're trying to talk ourselves into the Ravens and every single piece of data over 20 years says, don't do it.

[01:39:46]

Stewards Plus 3 at home is exactly the type of bet that I would do without blinking. I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball on the Ravens at all. So now we're just putting the game in Russ's hands.

[01:39:59]

You know what?

[01:40:00]

The That's the Baltimore's crappy pass defense.

[01:40:02]

If you really, really, really want to bet the Ravens, make sure that Kyle Hamilton, check on a daily basis, how's Kyle Hamilton doing?

[01:40:10]

You're right. He might not play either.

[01:40:12]

What are the reports about how he's feeling, how he's doing? How does he look? Is he a go? Is he not a go? If you have to bet the Ravens, that's the key.

[01:40:21]

So you really like Browns plus one and a half against the Saints?

[01:40:25]

I love it. It's the Jameis return game. Jameis back to New Orleans. It's going right to Commander's Palace and getting to sit down with two dozen oysters. It's the Browns off the bye week. Here's the distinguishing factor. Look at the Browns' injury report. I'll tell you quickly, There are no names on it. The Browns, it's the healthiest this Browns team has been all season long. And coming into the season, there was reasonable optimism for the Browns. I think their win total was eight and a half. Smith. And so that's a team, and the strength was supposed to be in the trenches for this Browns team. Their defensive front seven, their offensive line. Well, their offensive line was basically hurt all the way up until this last two weeks. And because of the way the season has gone, they traded Zazaria Smith in the last handful of weeks. But I think it's just the Saints team, they got the new coach bounce. They got rid of Dennis Allen.

[01:41:29]

They won one for the clogger.

[01:41:32]

That's the best. It's an amazing run for- The cloggers want to know. The Sunday Night, Bill Smith's podcast with Cousin Sal between middle coach, St. Peterson.

[01:41:44]

We've had a good run on Coach Dick James. Yeah. So the clogger got his win. I think the Saints are terrible.

[01:41:50]

They are terrible. Are they going to be able to throw three bombs to Marquez Valdés-Scantling? I can't even say the names. Again, I don't think so.

[01:42:01]

Can I read you some really fun Cleveland offense versus New Orleans defense matchups for this game?

[01:42:06]

It's going to be hilarious.

[01:42:08]

Cleveland's offense, 32nd in yards per play. New Orleans defense, 32nd in yards per play.

[01:42:14]

Yeah.

[01:42:15]

Cleveland's offense, 28th pass. New Orleans defense, 29th pass. There we go. Cleveland's offense, 28th with the run. New Orleans defense, 27th. And then Cleveland's offense, 32nd hits to the quarterback. So last. They've given up the most quarterback hits. New Orleans, 27th in hitting the quarterback. So this is the worst possible offense against the worst possible defense, basically. But as you said, Browns are healthier. Nick Chubb, who had a bye week last week, who was finally starting. Maybe this is the nick Chubb game. Jameis going in New Orleans. I like the Browns. I'm with you.

[01:42:54]

Isn't that fun? Let's do it. Plus, the line is so crazy.

[01:42:59]

Yeah, the The Saints being favored. The cloggers are favored.

[01:43:03]

Look at the price. It's like even money to take the favored team, and you have to lay crazy juice if you want to take the Browns. It's like minus 125 to get the one and a half points.

[01:43:20]

Yeah, why is that? Yeah, they're minus 122 plus one. So this is a money line bet then? Yes, yes, clear. Browns minus 108. Okay. That sounds good. All right, I think we have all right. Was there anything else you liked or no?

[01:43:41]

That was it. That's probably my favorite bet, the Browns, because it's so dumb and hilarious.

[01:43:46]

I think the Rams' Pats line is a point and a half too high toward the Ram's. It's Ram's minus four and a half, but I don't want to bet it. I also don't know why we don't have money in the packers. Vegas, though, number. Minus five and a half against Chicago, but it almost looks like a trap game. All right, that's good. So million dollar picks. All right, I have a handle on it. Let me ask you this. If I told you we could do Chiefs plus three and a half parled with lines minus two and a half minus 119, and we do Chiefs plus eight and a half, Stewards plus nine, T's. Would you want to do both of those or just pick one?

[01:44:33]

Let's do both. We don't have to do enormous amounts.

[01:44:37]

All right, it's time. Million dollar picks, week 11. Last week, we lost $10,000 house. I don't know how we did it. It felt like we were all over the slate. We're still up with $768,000 for the year. First bet, Broncos home against the wildly overrated Falcons. This is only a minus two and a half. We think this gets to three by Sunday, right?

[01:45:06]

Broncos by three on Sunday? For sure. But we're positive, expected. We beat the closing line value here on Million Dollar Picks.

[01:45:14]

Yeah, we do it on Thursday nights. We're grabbing it early. We love the Broncos defense. Not sold in the Falcons at all. They could easily be a three-win team. Sean Payton, them at home. Bo Nicks showing some signs of life. They got three running backs going. Broncos minus two and a half. That's our first one. Second one is one that House liked. Colts plus three and a half against the Jets. Just because if we can bet against the Jets every week, we're just going to do it until Rodgers gets shut down. That's right. Anthony Richardson is in this game. House, you had a theory about what Steigen is going to do with Richardson.

[01:45:52]

I really think that they're going to put the ball in his hands and let him have the green light to run early to run often and just reestablish himself, reestablish the team's confidence in him. He's a tough guy. He's going to show them that he's a tough guy. He's going to get the job done. And Ambassador Rodgers can't wait to go off to his exotic destination.

[01:46:18]

That was plus 209. Colts plus three and a half with Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards plus 209. It's a great bet. Plus 209. We're going to put 100K on that one. Chargers minus one and a half against the Bengals. I love this bet. I think the line should be chargers minus three and a half. The Bengals, people are just like, Oh, the Bengals, they need the game. They can throw the ball. I am in on the Chargers. I think they are a really good, complete, well-coached team. They can run it, they can throw it. They have a top five or six defense. I think the Bengals are really one-dimensional. They make dumb turnovers, they do stupid fourth and two, and they go for it, they get stuffed. Their defense is awful. And I think the chargers win this game outright. So we're putting 200K on them and the Broncos minus two and a half as well. And then we're going to put 200K on the Browns minus 108 against the Clogger and the New Orleans Saints. Make the case really fast.

[01:47:18]

Tough spot for the Saints with the injuries that they have. The Browns are coming off of by with a clean bill of health. Jameis Winston back to the scene of many crimes, none of which have been reported, but he gets to get back to Commander Palace. We love the Browns. Offensive line, defensive front seven. They're going to put pressure on Derrick Carr. No receivers left except for MBS. Good luck to the Saints.

[01:47:44]

A lot of pick six misdemeanors and a lot of picks and crossing route misdemeanors by Jamis. Last but not least, we're going to do something a little different. Put a little more on this Chiefs game because it's Chiefs bills, Chiefs getting two and a half, and we're going to tweak this in two different ways for 150,000 each. First, Chiefs up to plus three and a half. We're going to buy a point and combine it with the Lions minus two and a half against the Jaguars and McJones. The Lions are huge favorites in Detroit, so we're going to use that. That's minus 119. Then we're going to tease the Chiefs to plus eight and a half with the Steelers, where we went back and forth. We have to put money on this game somehow. We've decided this is a breakdown game one way or the other because we argue about it for so long. We realized, Oh, it's in Pittsburgh. Steelers are underdogs. This is a great spot for them. Let's just tease them to plus nine and enjoy it. So we're going to put 150,000 on both of those bets. And the case is, it's the Chiefs.

[01:48:42]

Their record is what? 27 and one and one as underdogs with Mahomes, 127. I don't know how many times he's covered it. He's only lost once in the Bills, home of the 13 seconds game. Bills are a little banged up. I just think the Chiefs have a better team. I think the lines in I think Mahomes should be insulting. So we're putting bets on both of those. So to recap, 200K on Broncos minus two and a half, Browns minus 108 to win outright, Chargers minus one and a half. Then we're doing the Joe House parlay, Colts plus three and a half with Richardson 38.5, Rush, 100K to win plus 209 on that. And then 250K bets, Chiefs plus three and a half parlayed with the lines minus two and a half. Then the Chiefs plus eight and a half, Stealers plus 9 as a tease. But before we go, I have to ask you this, Joe House, do we do the Cousin Sal special with the Stealers? Ravens win first half, Stealers win game, nine to one on FanDuel. How could we not? It's hit three times this year already.

[01:49:48]

How could we not?

[01:49:50]

It's hit three times already.

[01:49:52]

Criminal negligence for us to sit here with this opportunity, this marquee game, and not get in on this Cousin Sal special. It's a Must have here on the Million Dollar Peaks.

[01:50:01]

A little 25K sprinkling?

[01:50:03]

Yes. Have to do it. A dusting? Required. Mandatory.

[01:50:07]

We're not asking. 25k on the Cousin Sal Steeler's Parlay. Steeler Special? What's he calling it?

[01:50:13]

He got to come up with a great name for it. He's a master of branding.

[01:50:19]

We haven't come up with this- The Cousin Sal Steeler Special.

[01:50:21]

Fine. Great.

[01:50:21]

The CSS. There we go. 25k on that. It is nine to one on Fandil. It's hit three times already this year. It would be hilarious if it hit again. Those Those are the Million Dollar Picks for Week 11. House, Buzzed House, Semi-Drunk House. Thanks for staying up late with us. Thanks for not offending us. Good luck with your C-Cup Parley. Would you call it the C-Cup Booster?

[01:50:43]

Well, you didn't get the C-Cup Profit Booster, but I'll live with the C-Cup Parley. I'm going to go to bed now and dream about where Ambassador Rogers is going to land.

[01:50:52]

Good to see you, house. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Joe House. Thanks to Nate Tice. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti. As always, don't forget, you can watch clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons channel on YouTube. I will be back on Sunday night with the Cus. We'll be going live on YouTube as well. You can watch it as we do it if you want, or you can just wait to listen to it later that night or the next day. Enjoy the weekend. I will see you Sunday night.

[01:51:26]

On a Must be 21 plus in President Select States for Kansas, an affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President DC.

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