
NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The Pacific and Central Divisions With Ryen Russillo and Joe House | Starring Booker, Giannis, Haliburton, and AD
The Bill Simmons Podcast- 238 views
- 16 Oct 2024
In Part 2 of a three-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Ryen Russillo and Joe House to run through NBA win totals for the Pacific and Central Divisions.
(0:46) Suns
(8:42) Kings
(13:54) Warriors
(20:56) Lakers
(27:27) Clippers
(34:56) Bucks
(43:09) Cavaliers
(51:27) Pacers
(57:39) Bulls
(1:05:29) Pistons
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Ryen Russillo and Joe House
Producer: Kyle Crichton
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Coming up, part 2 of the NBA Overrunners podcast, the annual extravaganza. Next. All right, this is part 2 of the annual NBA Overrunners podcast with House and Rosilla. If you missed part 1, well, we're doing part two, so that means part one is already up. Let's bring in Pearl Jam one more time.
All right, it's part two.
We are doing the Pacific division to start. That is the division that has both LA teams in it. It also is the Phoenix science. Having over under... Is that gone up past 47.5 right now in Fandil?
I see 47.5. Okay.
They are plus 150 for the division, which to me is a bet.
You don't know. Nobody does.
They are 13 to one to be the one seed, which I think is semi-enticing as an OKC backup bet. In general, new coach, Coach Butt is in town. They added Tyus Jones. They're finally going to have a point card. I like Plumly. I like Monty Morris. Rosillo. I love this team for the over. I think the 47.5 is beyond tasty and beyond enticing. I think this is a low to mid '50s win team. Bud is going to have them shooting threes. Durant Booker coming off the Olympics. I was out last year. I'm in this year.
When we last saw them, Paul and I, Minnesota. I know. Everybody laughing at them. I get it. Bradley Beale. It's funny. You want to look at some misleading numbers. Look at Bradley Beal's overall numbers and then his splits and all this stuff. Look, I'm with you. I am really impressed with what they were able to do on the margins, considering they had no options to have Tyus Jones as an option. You can have Booker on the ball later if you want to do that. Grace Allen was incredible. They kept Royce O'Neill. This Ryan Dunn thing is even weirder because he was going to be- Yeah, he's been a preseason.
Is this going to be like a Phil plantier situation or do we believe this is a deep-cut early '90s baseball joke?
I'm really excited about it. But look, There's no way. Here's why it's an over for me. They had the worst offense in the NBA in the fourth quarter and the worst net rating of 30 NBA teams. This team had the worst net rating in the fourth quarter. It makes no sense. There's no way that happens again. I think it's an over because even through all of their nonsense, they won 49 games last year.
It's a super over for me as well. I think that the Coach Bud thing is one of the quieter developments in the West and what that does to propelling this team. I think they're going to be in that four-seed, maybe even battling for the three-seed.
I have them as a two-seed.
In the Western Conference?
I do. Wow. That means you have them over in Minnesota. I think it's them over in Minnesota. I have them right next to each other.
You have them over Dallas?
By the way, I like Vogtle, and I think he's a good coach who won a title. I just think he was the wrong coach for that team.
It was terrible timing, too. They threw that whole effing team together.
That team was never going to be good on defense. You bring in Vogtle, it's like he's going to bring in defensive. It's like, you know what? This team's not going to be great on defense. You know what they're going to be really good at? Offense. I think Bud is just going to... You can see it. He's like, shoot some fucking threes. Get those threes up. That's That's who they're going to be.
Yeah, you're all good shooters. Bradley Bill, if he can just play 60 games. He hasn't done that in five years.
I don't even know if it matters with him. I'm serious.
It would be a bonus.
Yeah, he's a bonus. I'm saying it's... Exactly.
But that's the range between 51 and 55 wins for me if he shows up. Can I read you some Bud stats?
I love that people love Bud again.
Regular season Bud with all this talent.
I'm going to give you some stats. Career, 801 and 484, 60.4% winning percentage. He had 550 win seasons. Two of those were 60 plus. Here are all the coaches that have 800 plus wins, 60% winning percentage. Phil Jackson, Red Arback, Steve Kerr, Greg Popovich, Coach, Pat Reilly, Jerry Sloan, and Coach Bud. That's the entire list. It's a good coach. The Milwaukee thing got super weird. You could go back and you could watch those games, and you could watch that Miami game, which I think blew your brain. You did. It blew my brain out. I think you just did a solo pod for seven hours after that last Jimmy Butler game. I think I did an emergency pod.
I think I did an emergency pod for that game.
I think the pod accidentally turned on. You were just talking to yourself, and we just somehow were recording it. Really good chance. That's also true. But yeah, I just think Milwaukee got weird. It was time for him to go. I like everything I've read about him. Everyone's like, this guy's in great shape. He was a mess in Milwaukee. Now he's refocused, needed the year off. But this is like a mad scientist team. This is a team that would be really fun to coach or a nightmare to coach if you're the wrong coach for it.
That's where I think the Vogtle part of it because it came together and these guys had all the answers, so they weren't going to listen to Vogtle. It's like, actually, you got embarrassed by and you guys. I think whoever the next coach was, post Vogtle, is probably somebody they're going to respond to a little bit because I think they thought they had the plan last year.
Right. We just rolled the ball out, Coach.
If it were reversed, who knows?
Well, he has Nerkage trying threes. I don't know if he's going to actually shoot them during the season.
I hope they get off to a good start. I do. I hope they get off to a good start because I think the Durant stuff was heading towards weird town, possibly this summer. But Phoenix, remember, you and I were doing the pot around the draft. Esp was saying they wanted to trade him. Then I had to even talked to somebody that said, You can say right now on The Pot with Bill tonight, we're not trading Durant. I was like, I hope you're not lying to me, and they weren't. No.
Look, as you know, I completely overrated Olympic basketball at all times. But I think it was good for a Duran Booker. That's just a Patriot in you. I think it was good for Duran Booker that we had six dudes in fucking nut crunch time that they trusted. I thought it was a great experience for Booker.
That's my Booker position. All the Booker shit that I take. It's a huge win for him. Booker, Tatum, and everything. There's a reason why I stand up for this guy all the time.
Tyus Jones, who I think the diehard League Pass people, and I include the three of us, we really like that guy, and he was really good on Memphis, and then house had him.
That's all you could say. Still shot over 41% from three on four times a game.
The whole philosophy of we don't need a I will never believe that for the rest of my life. I think you need point cards.
The Billy Miller of NBA Point Cards.
Who's Billy Miller? Billy Miller.
Our Billy Miller. Baseball Billy.
It's still amazing. They got him.
It's amazing. Because it seemed like- They had no outs, and then it was, okay, resign and pay too much for this guy. Where was everyone else?
Monty Morris. That's another one.
They did a good job. New Owners syndrome.
Don't like your centers.
New Owners syndrome is back. It Mishpia is fucking making moves, man. I'm in on this Suns team, so we're all over 47 and a half. My guess, we have 8, 9 days left. I think that keeps going up. I bet that lands. When people watch what the Suns are doing, how many threes they're taking, they're going to be really hard to play. The thing that makes me nervous is Durant. He was in the 2007 draft. We were watching a game last night. Remember the show Greg Oden in the stands? Greg Oden just like an old retired player, and he was in the draft with Durant. It's just once you get into year 18, year 19, I never feel awesome. But I think, is Booker like a stealth, stealth, stealth MVP candidate? Super duper long shot?
I don't know. If they're going right, it probably means Durant is cooking again. I mean, he was 52, 41, 86 in 70 games last year. I mean, Durant. But then to watch what happened in Minnesota, you're like, Okay, this isn't working out.
They have odds for him, too. 75 to You don't have to sell me on Booker. Booker, 100 to one.
No.
If they're a one or a two seed, they're at least going to be in the conversation. I just think those are crazy values for a team that I think can be the two seed. All right, next team, Sacramento. They're over is 44 and a half, which went down. I think it was 45 and a half. Might even got 46 and a half. It did. They're plus 240 for the division. They're minus 170 for the playoffs. They were 46 and 36 last year. What they did was they turned Harrison Barnes into DeMard de Rosen. They start Sabonis and Murray and DeRosen and Fox, maybe Ellis, Monk, coming off the bench. Monk, Monk.
Monk, Monk. You're going to get it down this year?
Monk.
You're going to try it again? Monk.
Trey Lyaus is there.
What do you think the origin of that is?
Listen, I can't control my.
I have weird ones, too. I have a weird- That's a weird one. Weird one.
This team, I don't know why. They were 40 and 30 Four, two years ago and 46, 36 last year, when I did my Ringer 100 voting, I had them 19, 27, 46, 90, 97. I had five of their guys in the top 100, including two in the top 30. They also have some trade bait. Herder is 16.8. They have Liles, McDaneo.
If you want to ruin your entire team's chemistry.
Carter? Sorry. I should have given you a warning on that. But they have moves they can make to get one more guy. I think I'm over. I think they're a top eight team. I like their team. I think they're going to be hard to play.
I'm an over, slight over, but I think the Derozen thing raises their floor because Harrison Barnes would also be a first-team selection of did he play tonight? He'd be like, You just watch him play 38 minutes.
It felt like he was getting a little worse, too.
It makes sense for San Antonio, but when I run through it, they've got a Keon Ellis thing where they probably really liked his defense, which also made them feel like they could move on from Davian Mitchell, who they'd spend a lot of their pick on, who, let's face it, he's probably a rotational guard. Never going to be a starter for anybody that was pretty good. De Rosen, three years ago, the Chicago deal, I thought, Man, we'll see how that ages out. It aged out beautifully for them. I just like where it puts their floor. They're going to try to run you up and down. They're not going to be able to defend anybody. Who cares about the playoff projection for them and playing bigger teams? We saw against New Orleans last year where it was just one of those moments where you go, This is an awful matchup for them every time they play. I just think De Rosen, you're plugging him into those barns minutes and Fox and the rest of everybody else is He's young.
I'm not going to- It was a lot on Fox last year at the end of games, too.
Yeah. House. No, and that's Derozen.
Yeah. That's just fine, right? Two places to go. House, really good League past him. I could see you falling asleep in front of the couch in the East Coast for many times.
I need to see- Isaac Jones. The The Red Mamba at all times. Maryland guy, the Red Mamba, Kevin Porter.
Come back. Not a lot of people are predicting come back here. I don't know if you want to do an investor relations call. When we call in, quick.
It's a tiny bit of stock. I don't know.
Kevin Herder, investor relations call.
Yeah.
Hey, look- Marcelo, you're actually compromised here. What do you do?
All right. Here's the deal. When you're on your boat in 20 years. You've sold all your comedy CDs. You're doing pretty good. You got a boat. Do you want to look at the guy's boat next to you and you want that guy's boat to be bigger or smaller? Because if you get out of this herder position now, you're going to be a fucking tender. You're be running groceries and shrimp and ice to that guy's boat. If you want the guy next to you running the supplies to you, asking anything else I can do for you, that's why you're staying in this herder position right now. You want to get out like everybody else who's going to be in the small boat? Go ahead. Fucking grab some ores. Grab some ores. It's a league that loves shooting. Yeah, maybe you get in a sailing, and I'm talking emergency sailing. You want something high-powered, generators the whole deal, hold.
I agree.
To hold. It's a hurt or hold.
We're doing it. We all love shooting. I love guys who can make open threes. So you're over house?
I'm over because you side by side the Pelicans and this team, and I like this team better than I like the Pelicans. I have the answers that I want to what this roster is going to look like.
And also when you're logging in Derozen, you want to talk about something I've never even worried about? Like, okay, cool. He'll just get along with everybody and he's better than the guys you're replacing.
And also plays really well against good teams. Every time he played the Celtics, I always felt like they had so many problems with him. The Celtics were like, you would think the perfect type of team to defend him, but he always got shots. I have them in that 6, 7, 8 range for seeds, maybe even getting a 6 if Memphis can't totally get their shit together. I probably have them 6. But I think in that next batch of once you get past OKC Phoenix, Minnesota, Dallas, Denver, and you go into that, Memphis, Sacramento, Houston, Golden State, New Orleans, Lakers, that group, I think I like them the most.
Sure.
Also, really good home court. It matters. It's a team that- Light the beam, baby. Will probably give a shit there in the NBA Cup. I'm not positive everyone's going to care, but I think they will.
I like this.
Let's look at that. All right, we're over as for all of them. We're going to keep moving. Golden State Warriors. I mean, one of the toughest over-unders on the board.
Do we all like what they did this offseason, considering?
43.5 is the over. So the FanDuel didn't like it as much because they won 46 games last year.
I like the over.
You like the over?
I liked it at 42.5, more than 43.5, because I think it's a perfect number for this. Let me throw this at you. On January first, they were 15 and 17. It was something I was tracking for them in particular. From that point on, they went 39... Excuse me. They were 15 and 17 on January first. They went 31 and 19 the last They were eighth in net rating. That's with Draymon playing 55 games. I like the depth. I like the multiple options that they have with these different mixes and matches that he can do.
He's fired up for this one.
I would hope that Draymon, he doesn't seem super... He's never going to be regretful. He's defiantly not regretful about any mistakes that he'd make, but I don't know that he's going to have the same season like that. Then you just plug Steph in here again. I think when you look at that run over the last 50 games, that's what they talk themselves into. It's a pretty big sample size. Yeah. So I'm going over.
One of the reasons I went over, and the over is 43.5, is because of the depth that he just mentioned. They go 12 deep. What's interesting is in that Ringer 100 exercise, they only had two guys for me in the- Drayman.
I think two guys, Draymon and Curry. Pajemski and Curry.
Well, and then Pajemski maybe has a chance to play himself in there. I couldn't quite put Kamenga in there. But But when you think they're starting Draymond, Komingo Wiggins, Pajemski, Curry, they're bringing in slow-mo off the bench.
Looney. Jackson Davis.
Melton. Healed. Jackson Davis. Moody. Gary Payton, the second. I think you need to think this way in the regular season or the third.
Either one.
I thought it was the second. I'm just kidding. I thought this really helped the Celtics last year. Depth, giving guys nights off and then having people come in who could actually hold the fort. The wearers are going to be the best example of this. They're just deep. I think you need to be deep in 2024. House, where do you stand?
I agree with the idea of the depth. The depth doesn't really blow me away. A couple of guys have been at a couple of places haven't really distinguished themselves.
But yeah, all of that, right? Buddy Heel.
Everybody's waiting for Buddy Heel to really be that guy that's knocking down 6-3.
What happened the last two years with Buddy Heel? Yeah, why couldn't he get off the bench? I like him in theory so much more than the basketball.
Those Sixers games We were like, Dude, what? He had to one after everybody was so frustrated that he didn't want to seem like he wanted to shoot.
Do you think Buddy Hield's agent called the Sixers or just was like, Yeah, I don't even need to call. He did the token call? Yeah. Hey, it's Bob. Hey, Darryl. Just checking in. I know it wasn't a great season for Buddy, but if you want to talk about a deal.
Golden State is an under for me because I don't think Steph is going to play 74 games. It's just That's not simple. I love Steph. I want to see him play as much basketball as possible. I hope he plays, but they have no margin for error if he doesn't play. None. There's no backup plan. No, they're screwed. Kominga is balling out. Congratulations.
My big question with this team was, did they find a younger, deeper, happier version of themselves? Because I don't think last year, last two years, we're not exactly super happy. They had a lot of guns for hire and just weird kinds of...
I don't know if I pick them against anybody in the playoffs.
Right, but all we care about is regular season. Their record is they don't make the playoffs two of the last four years. The bigger question to me is, is this just a trade machine team? They couldn't get a deal that they liked this summer. They put together a lot of assets, and they're just open for business, really starting Thanksgiving.
Who wants what they have?
Well, they have a bunch of pics.
Okay.
It would be Kaminga continuing to improve, and then he's in the deal with-He's the centerpiece of the deal with pics. Here's all of us.
Yeah, and expiring contracts. I'm not talking Zack LeVine level. Obviously, they weren't interested in Ingram. But if an actual star becomes available-Well, they tried the Paul George thing, but I just don't think there was ever a fit there.
I think there was a bunch of teams that tried on Lowry that were offering real things, and then it didn't happen. But it would have to be somebody like, Can we stop with the Steph LeBron stuff that they're going to play together at some point?
That doesn't really make a ton of sense. They just did. It was fun. We just watched it. It was the Olympics. They're not playing together. They played six games.
Steph got hosed in the MVP.
Maybe. Warriors' play-offs minus 102 plus 120 is the no. Yeah, plus. The play-in game is plus 140, Rasillo. This team looks very play-in-ish.
I hate the playing game because it keeps getting rid of Steph.
Right.
It's fucking stupid. You're on 10-playoff team? Yeah.
To expand the T of the play-off teams? Yeah. No, Can we stand the T of the playoff to 10 so the Warriors can get in?
I'm trying to think now, if I look at it again, Golden State wouldn't even have been in the playoff last year. I think it was, was it 22 when I was at home and I went, cool, now Steph's not in the playoff. Awesome. I think it was 22. That was the Lakers game.
Over for me, over for Rasillo, under for Haas.
Under 43 and a half for me. Absolutely, positively.
That leads us to-21. The Los Angeles Lakers right after this break. The NBA is back, and FanDuel is America's number one sportsbook, and they want you to catch up on all the action because right now, FanDuel is giving everyone three months of NBA League pass. All you have to do to catch every tip off from Buzzer Beater is place any $5 bet on the NBA, and then you get League pass. You can see if Wembenyama is to put up a 30, 20, 10, and 10. You can see if Luka is going to go for 75 points. You can watch my favorite team, the Boston Celtics, the Defending Champions of the National Basketball Association. We're talking about all the story lines on this three-part Over-Under podcast. But next time you get a hunch on who's going to win or how many points a player will score, you can watch your pics come to life live. Just visit fanduel. Com/bs to get three months of NBA League Pass, courtesy of Fanduel Make every moment more with FanDuel official sportsbook partner of the NBA. Must be 21 plus in President Slec States or 18 plus in President DC.
After a three-month free trial, the full price of League Pass will be automatically charged monthly. Cancel anytime, no refunds. Terms, restrictions, embargoes apply. Limit one pass per customer. See terms at sportsbook. Fandil. Com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 Gambler or visit rg-help. Com. Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers of Los Angeles. 42.5 is the over-under. They're plus 440 for the division, minus 110 for the playoffs, plus 135 for the play-in. They added JJ Redick as a new coach. They added Dalton Connect. They lost Dinwiddie, they lost Prince. It's pretty much the same team except the coach changed.
They added somebody else.
Who do you got?
Coloco. Coloco? Yeah, that Arizona kid, big guy. I liked him. He turned a couple of years ago.
Throwing Coloco. So JJ wants to shoot more threes. Will this work?
They were incredibly lucky last year. So they're 47 and 35. They were expected 42 and 40, so they played over that. This is a super easy one for me. Incredible. Anthony Davis here back on the map. Lebron makes it through all the way healthy. The fact that they got that from those two guys, and they still are just an afterthought.
Lebron had his best shooting year, probably ever from three.
Incredible. I'm not banking on that again, so it's an It's easy. How's it?
It's so effing low. 42 and a half is so goddamn low.
But-if one of the two guys goes down, got it. That's it.
71 for LeBron last year, 76 for Anthony They've 76 games for Anthony Davis last year. Reddick does want Davis to be shooting more threes. Does that help? Does that keep him on the court if Anthony Davis is shooting threes?
They were eighth in three-point percentage last year, but they only took 31 threes a game. So on paper, you're like, well, shoot more. So they're playing Davis, who shot, I think, 27% from three last year. Vanderbilt, who can't shoot. Camranata, who can't shoot. Wood, who can't shoot. And Gabe Vincent, who only really had one decent three-point shooting here. Then LeBron was career high. Then Russell was like, Cool. Can I shoot more threes? I can shoot eight? That sounds great. Could I be like Steph? I don't think it's going to work. I just think it's a team that It doesn't make sense to me.
The 33 games that Russell, Reeves, Rui, LeBron, and AD were the starting five, they went 23 and 10. So that's your case for this team. And God, 42 and a half is so goddamn low.
So you're going over. The AD three-point thing, I don't know if that's the Royal Jolly deal or the old Sean Marion thing with Dan Toney, where Dan Toney would just be like, as soon as you catch it, let it fly. It actually just made Marion a better shooter because it was something It was never a bad idea for him to shoot. I don't know if that's... I have a hard time to believe it's going to be that free wheeling as the seven seconds are left. Phoenix Suns here. But Davis hasn't been able to hit it from the outside now since New Orleans.
There's only one case for the over for me because I actually think this team is going to be in the mid to high 30s. I just don't think, especially with how deep the West is. Lebron, his age, the fact that you know he's going to miss 25, 26 games because that's just what's been happening in the last few years.
Except for not last year. He played 71.
Davis getting... He's going to be 40.
I mean, did he look slow to you in the Olympics?
If he plays that... Well, it was six games in the Olympics.
The games were 40 minutes.
That's the thing. I even fell for it during the Olympics. It was a little bit of fool's gold where you had to play six Olympic Games, and those guys hadn't played basketball in 10 months, and they were just working on their bodies in shape. Then it was this brief sprint. This is an '82 game season in a really good league that's as deep as it's ever been. I think it's a lot to ask to run everything through LeBron at his age at this point. I went over on them the last two years. I don't see it this year.
They barely squeaked that over last year. It was a miracle.
So the only case for it, Rusillo, is that they're on their pick. Their first-run pick goes to New Orleans. They have no incentive to be like, Oh, LeBron's hurt.
I'm not even thinking about that, though.
Yeah, but I'm just saying they have to actually compete the whole year. There's no reason not to.
It's simply you're not getting the same AD LeBron participation. That's all it is.
It's totally fine. I'll go under. I'm under. I thought you were going over. 42 or 40. It's such a low number. It's absurd. But how do you forecast- Somebody's got to be bad in the West. 147 games again out of those two guys.
If they were in the East, would they be in 8 seat for you guys? Yeah, I think so. Against Atlanta, Miami. I still don't think I would have Miami over them in the East.
Oh, God, that's disrespectful. Well, we'll talk about it. That's very disrespectful.
All right, we're all going under. Rasil, Was this a Zack Levine panic trade waiting to happen? 43 million this year.
Ron's always liked them.
So yes.
I think it's going to be really aggressive, like the passive-aggressive. It's going to be super passive-aggressive. Lebron, if he's putting it together and there are a few games out or wherever they are, and they own their pics, and people thought that was going to happen this summer. I just don't understand why if LeBron were 30, I'd be given into him. I'd do whatever he wants. I'd draft his kid, but I don't the purpose of, let's do whatever this guy wants at 40 years old, even though he's pushed the boundaries of what we think is possible.
They're going to hit a dangerous spot, the Laker fans, because you can't really mortgage anything else. We've already seen that the ceiling of this team is what it is. The teams around them are getting better.
I don't know if it's an ESP. I don't understand. I'll see a clip pop out like a day and be like, so-and-so doesn't like their championship. And I'm like, why are you guys? No one's even thinking about that anymore.
There's a separate league with OKC in Minnesota and Dallas and the Celtics and the Knicks. This team would have no chance in a serious game.
No serious person talks about the Lakers with a payoff run.
Well, ESPN, well, it's probably leading NBA today, today.
Well, ESPN let a guy no longer works for them hijack the first game of the goddamn NBA Finals with Laker news about a head coach that never was going to effing land there. But great job. That's definitely Let our perspective be colored by ESPN's editorial decisions.
The house is really letting them out. Were you in the PA program in the late 90s? Jesus.
I was so upset. It was the NBA Finals. They were doing a car wash of like, Well, we're really going to put the Connecticut coach to the test to be the potential coach of the Lakers. House doesn't like car wash. Get the F out of here. Jesus. I just want to watch the finals. I want to watch good teams play.
Well, the Lakers won't be one of them, and neither will be this next team, the Los Angeles Clippers. Over 37 and a half. I feel like that's dropped. I think that was higher before Kauai was like-It was 38 and a half.
It was.
Kauai was like, Yeah, I don't know. You ready for it in the night? I don't know.
When does it start again?
October 23rd, you're saying?
He's trying to make plans with me. He's just like, Oh, that's this year? We're doing that? Yeah. Wasn't there a lockout?
Yeah, we're having dinner after. We are? 12 to 1 for the division. Plus 235 to make the playoffs, plus 185 for the play-in. And last year, they were 51 and 31. They lost Paul George. They lost Plumly. They added Derrick Jones, Chris Dunn, nick Batum. Can you imagine having season tickets for these guys?
It looks like an incredible stadium. And I think getting to watch the West, you go to that stadium- I'm back.
I'm back to why I got the tickets in the first place. It's going to be super fun. Going for the other teams. But the stadium- Wemby's in town. Let's go.
The stadium all by itself, I think. The way it looks, the report so far, it seems like- It's amazing.
You've already gone?
The guy I shared tickets with went yesterday and was sending me videos. I was like, That looks fucking amazing.
You haven't been yet? I haven't been.
Can't wait.
Are you going tomorrow night? I'm not. Or Thursday? No.
Why? You want to go? Into it? I'm tempted.
You guys should go.
I don't know. The stadium is the thing. Tell me because I have to leave now to get there in time. Yeah, it's actually- Wait He's the same 26 hours.
I've been boycotting London football, so I'm like- Smart.
I like it. That really wasn't related. Here's the season ticket package other than the arena. An aging high usage, James Harden, probably my least favorite player to watch in person of all the good players.
I don't know if there's a player more excited about this upcoming season.
It's like, Kauai, take your time. Limping Kauai, a bunch of role guys, and they have no first-round pick because they're okay to get this right.
They don't control the draft for the next five years. Yeah.
Wow. It's brutal. It's so bad. It's brutal. But the stadium is going to be amazing. They basically chose James Harden over Paul George, which is just I thought the hard number was a little high, and I still can't believe they didn't do a 4-3 with Paul George.
But I could also see them being entirely over this thing that has not worked out, even though at the time, if you're trading all of this for Paul George, also guarantees you getting Kawhi Leonard in free agency, you do it. You just do it.
I don't think it's-We said at the time, you got to do it.
Anyone that's going like, you shouldn't have done it after the fact. Just think, you gave all that up to then get Paul George and then to have all of this stuff happen. But the Kawhi part of it, it hasn't been right since Toronto. It's really unfortunate because it looked like they finally had executed the plan. You hoped to be able to do one time.
They sent Kawhi home from the Olympic team. They were like, Let's make up an excuse. You can't be in the team. He had a surprise knee surgery. He needed knee surgery. You can't be in the team. You're not healthy. Then the preseason started and it's like, Still not healthy, but he's going to be ready for opening night. Then it's like, No, he's actually not going to be ready opening night either. Worst season tickets for 2024, '25.
Draft?
We don't need to do a draft because there's only five teams. But who do you have first? Who would you want to have season tickets for the least?
This is the easiest question. It's obviously Washington.
Wizards are in this draft.
I had them as well. Yeah. Is Brooklyn, too?
Well, you were just there. There's Really good pizza places there, right?
Really good food. So you go. Feany Pizza.
No, I don't think Brooklyn's too.
Plus, Ben Simmons.
I'm just saying, season tickets. I have to go to the stadium. I have to see this team for the next six months. I'm going for the other team.
I think it'll be Portland.
I think it's Charlotte.
Oh, that's a great point.
I like Charlotte.
Oh, we're going to have a fun conversation.
I wouldn't mind going to see Charlotte.
Yeah, but you can't say season tickets and then go, but there's a lot of golf in the area. It's about the basketball.
I'm not talking about that. I'm saying I'm going to the game. Do I like watching the players in the court?
So Brooklyn, the pizza is so good that you're going to watch 41 of those games? No, I had Brooklyn second.
I had Brooklyn second.
Okay, we have Brooklyn second. We're on the same page.
I have the Clippers third. I'd rather see Chicago than the Clippers. I'd be like, Josh Gidey, Kobe White. You do want to see Kobe White. But Zellas.
I think Toronto needs to be mentioned.
Wow.
Over Portland?
He went right there.
I have a lot invested emotionally in Portland.
Okay.
If I were there, rooting on my guys.
So You'd have Toronto fourth.
It's freezing.
Yeah, that's a good point. All right, Toronto fourth.
Like, oh, cool. Quickly took 27 shots.
Scottie Barnes's crunch time numbers are getting better.
I love Scottie I don't even have a Stadiivarn.
Apologies to Jay Skitts.
It's fine.
Washington, Brooklyn, Clippers, Toronto, Chicago, Portland would be our bottom six. The point is the Clippers are in the top three.
They are.
But you're going for the other teams again. Atlantic could be an honorable mention as well.
Just personally, he might be a nice guy, James Harden. He might be a sweetheart of a guy. He might be a great friend. People love him. He's a good family guy.
Great rigger content.
I'm sure he's a great teammate. He has. I just don't like watching him play basketball, and we've been watching him now for almost two decades. The fact that this offense is now going to revolve around the heliocentric shit.
Fourth and MVP.
But he's 35 years old. It sounds horrible. It sounds horrible.
I'm excited He just made a statement where he was like, Everybody said I couldn't do it, but look what Luca just did. As if Luca-I saw that. It was like somehow Luca got an oh no from him. That meant because Luca made it to the NBA Finals, Harden was always right. It reminded me of when part of my take brought in Skip Bayliss, and Skip complimented himself three times within 45 seconds. He thought he was actually complimenting them, but it was like, You guys are the next.
Well, him and Steven A created that show.
They created two guys talking to each other. It's fucking unheard of.
Nobody had thought about that before. No, it's unbelievable. Under, and it's a lock for me, the Clippers, 37 and a half. I think they're going to be awful. What do you have, house?
It's an under. I'm not sure whether that's a lock, but it's an easy under.
Under. Under. Under. What do you have?
Under. There's no way I'm touching that over. That's a healthy number. You know what I mean? I understand that Vegas is already in all the different variables here.
There's a funny Ty Lou thing, too, where people go, Well, Ty Lou, he's an amazing coach. Ty Lou is 312 and 217 as a coach. He's a coach way less than people remember. He went 0 and 6 for the 2019 Cavs and got fired. The 22 team went 42 and 40. If you don't have the roster, you don't have the roster. You can't be like, Oh, Ty Lou will make them good. It's like, All right, if you make them good, they'll be 41 and 41. That would be a miracle.
Put Nielsy on the blue line.
We're going under for all those. I had for my playoff teams, OKC Phoenix, Minnesota, Dallas, Denver, and Memphis/Sacramento as the top six, just for the record. We're going to move to the East, and we're going to do the Central as the second part of this podcast. We're going to do it right after this break. All right, come back. We're going to do the Central. We were just congratulating ourselves during break for not having the Brian and James conversation. I've never been prouder of the three of us. The Milwaukee Bucks are our first team in the Central. Their over-under is 50 and a half. They are minus 105 for the division.
Speaking of nebidism.
They are 18 and one, best record, plus 850 for the one seed. What they did this offseason house, they added seven, eight, nine guys. They added Prince and Wright and Trent, who I think is actually going to start for them. They're a little deeper. My take is they're too old, but I'll give you the four, and then I'll weigh in after. What's your take on the bucks?
Yeah, it's an under for me. I think they are just running it back. Gary Trent's already hurt. Middleton is hurt. We're in the Middleton when is he due back? How effective is he going to be? Conversation already, and Dame It all really boils down to Dame, and he was there for every other game. Every other game, Dame.
We talked about this on the pod last year when you become a once a week, I'm really good guy in the NBA. They usually happen in your mid-30s.
You're not talking total games, you're talking output. No, I'm just saying- Because he played 73.
No, I'm saying once a week, he puts up 36, and he looks really good. Then there's that other game when he's 6 for 19.
Yeah, he was in a better spot because he could just put up a million shots and never had any expectation. It's cool that he wanted to go somewhere else. But Portland, it was actually safer for him as opposed to some of the limitations. When you talk about just pure shot making, he's on a very short list of guys, even at this age in the NBA, where I think you feel like that firepower is what you want in the playouts. But the age on this, man, is starting to get scary. A lot of these draft picks, granted, it's not like they were drafting super high, but I don't know which ones I feel good about.
Lopez, 36, season 17. Middleton, 33. Season 13. Dame, 34. Season 13. Giannis, 30. Season 12. Pauertis, 30. Season 10. Wright is 32, Season 10, and Connaughton's 31, Season 10. And Connaughton is 31. Season 10. I was trying to think of other old teams that did well. My mind drifted back to that Celtics run in 2012. Basically, that 2010 to 2012 range where the team got old. Pierce was at the tail end of being peak pierce, but Garnett had the knee surgery, wasn't the same. Ray Allen was moving to a different point in his career. It was just hard for them to get it done during the regular season. It was that one year, they were 25 and 25. Then they were able to flip the switch in the They made the finals. 2010, they made the finals. 2012, they came close to making the finals. It feels like that's more of a buck season to me, but I think the league sees it. They left Giannis off on Christmas. I think because they didn't think they were one of the best 12 teams in the league.
That seems ridiculous, though, because Giannis is the main... I felt like even in the end of last year and going into the playoffs, he gets hurt at the very end. He misses the entire playoffs. Lillard's hurt. He only plays four of the since play of games.
You were thinking MVP for him at one point.
Yeah, I still think I voted him second. Did I vote him second? I think I did.
But they were 49 and 33 last year, and he played the whole season. Right.
I don't want to be I'm respectful of him, but when I went through and looked at all of this stuff, I think of the top 10 guys in their two deep, there's only one guy in his 20s.
I was thinking about If I'm building a team that I want to at least succeed during the regular season, forget the playoffs, I want to be able to guard point guards, and I want to be able to guard swings like the Tatum types. This team can't really do either because the middle 10 has not been the same since that final's It just seems like his knees or he's at a different point in his career.
He's been a minus or a zero on defense.
Really for two years now.
Turnover rate is up. His free throw rate is down. When you're looking for aging numbers, even if he can get it going on a certain night, but there will be numbers going, okay, he's not grabbing as many rebounds. He's not getting to the free throw line as much. It's not the same guy. Just stuff you would expect an older player to be like, I don't want to do all these things. But defensively, the way they match up against on the wings. That's why when we start talking about the rest of the East and Boston, there's some teams where I go, I don't think you have an answer for what Boston has, where there's one team in particular where at least I can understand your approach and who would throw at some of these dudes.
He's played 88 games in the last two years, too, combined. Dame D minus defender, F plus, F or an F minus? What would you go with F?
You want to know why I had so bad is because when the sideline person starts talking about the person's bad defensive reputation and why he's actually a lot better than people realize that's immediately enough.
I always enjoy that. Yeah. He tries harder at that end than he gets credit for.
No, Doc says a lot of people think that Luke Cornet's quicker.
So So what if this goes bad, the house? What if they're 24 and 26 after 50 games? What is Yannis?
I'm just I don't think so. You're trying to speak into existence.
I'm not trying to speak anything into existence. Why would Yannis- I just think that guy's crazy competitive.
He's been super loyal along the way. He has. He has tried to drag the organization.
I think he cares about titles, man. I don't think he wants to be on a shit team that can't guard anybody.
Well, he's on one. I know. That's what he's on right now.
We'll see. So the best case scenario would be the 2011 maps. Most important ring in the last 10 years. Yannis?
As far as the conversation around the person being fair or unfair, imagine how different the conversation- I guess LeBron went again in 2020.
I was going to say that 2016 helped out LeBron and Kyrie, the combo. Kyrie's career is completely different if they don't win game seven, right?
Yeah. We're not even- I think that Game 7 result almost is misleading for him, not LeBron.
I don't know where Yannis could go, though, when we talk about, Well, he's going to ask All right, pick a team. Is he going to go to Brooklyn?
You're the only one talking about him asking out. I don't think he's going to ask out.
I think he's a top four player in the league, and I think his situation is through.
If it falls apart, I think it's going to be the old line that I've used all the time is it's usually not the international guys because it's not. It's the American guys that ask out. Eventually, he's going to be the international guy.
It almost fell apart last year, just FYI. But Thanasis is not on the team. Well, he got hurt, though. Him and Gigi Jackson, they ran into each other.
Yeah, but he's not on. He's a free agent.
Oh, he's literally not on the team?
Yeah, let me double check it, but I'm pretty sure he- It did almost fall apart last year.
They fired the coach.
So if Miami just signed Thanasis?
I'm telling you, everybody needs to be on Thanasis alert.
Why? Thanassis alert.
Let's cut that into a social. Make sure he's not on Miami. That's this alert. Did Miami sign him? That would be the most Miami thing ever, wouldn't it?
Well, dude, the Lakers had the other one. Then as soon as I think Giannis signed his extension, They're like, Cut him.
You're under, Rosillo?
I'm under.
House is under?
I want to still stay respectful of Giannis.
Me, too. Of what he's capable of. But by the way, we all went under, or I went over on Jokuj, but on Denver, you went under. It's the same situation. I like Denver's team a lot more than Milwaukee's team.
I do not. I don't like that.
You like Milwaukee's one through 9 better than Denver's.
I don't think they're going to be able to guard anybody who can get to the basket. Yannis is going to have to guard everybody in the other team at all times. By the way, Lopez might just hit a different point in his career one of these years, right? He's been in the league forever.
It could be this year.
It could be this year.
He's on the trade block.
Here's a team I'm guessing that all of us, like the Cleveland Cavaliers, they're over under his 48 and a half. I think there's been some action on that. I want to say that was a little lower. They're plus 240 for the division, which I would encourage as a bet for people out there. They're 1101 for a one seed, which is an interesting hedge against the Celtics. If you think weird Celtic shit is going to happen. New coach, Kenny Atkinson. And more importantly, they brought everyone back. So new coach, healthy Garland. Mitchell settled. That situation settled. They took care of Mowbley. Why isn't this a 50 plus win team? House?
I have no idea.
I think people are sleeping on- I don't understand. How is this team not going 52 and 30?
The aspect of this, especially, that is going to be eye-opening is Kenny Atkinson. I think he's going to be incredible with these guys.
We loved him in Brooklyn, and then Durant and Kyrie showed up, and neither of them played that year, and somehow he got bounced anyway.
No, they signed there because of the culture.
Yeah. Remember? Then they bounced him.
That was my favorite.
Joe's eye culture.
They've done a really good job here with Dinwiddie and D'Angelo Russell and develop these guys. It's good culture.
Top Ringer 100. I had Mitchell 13, and then I had the Garland Moby, Jared Allen, 45, 47, 51.
So four top 51.
Four top 51. Sure. That speaks to the 50 plus win thing. And then they signed Alan to a really good contract extension that if Mobile, if it's starting to look like maybe he could play center, Alan becomes a really fun trade piece for them. But I don't think they're going to do it. To me, this is a conference winner. I'm not a conference winner, a division winner. I like the plus 240. I love the over. It's a lock for me, Rosillo. What do you got?
Couldn't agree more. Totally aligned on this. I just think when you look at all of those guys together, I would expect it to go over. Their offense is okay. Their defense has been terrific now for two seasons, statistically. They shoot it okay enough. Remember, they went 17 and one last year. Garland missed 25 games. I think the injuries were fluky with him. Whatever you want to say about the Mitchell overlap thing, when they get to the playouts with those four guys, I'm no longer into it anymore. The spacing isn't good enough. The Mobile-Allen thing is redundant. Sure. But that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about just Mitchell has these stretches during the season where he looks absolutely unstable, which is even with his imperfections, why so many teams would have gladly taken him. They end up resigning basically all these guys. So all the speculator, it should just be a happier team. I think there was doubt with Bickerstaffe, too, that led into some of the problems they were having. So I'd expect them to be a 50-win team in the East, but the playoff thing is a completely different conversation.
Totally agree. And the math is crazy. All of their most important guys missed around 20 games last season. Every one of them, the four most important guys. So we were talking- And they won 48.
I think my three favorite overs are OKC, Phoenix, and Cleveland. Just the three I feel the best about. We've hit the super boost. We've hit three years in a row, I think, for FanDuel. Super boost. There's an easier one that's OKC 55 plus wins, Phoenix 45 plus, and Cleveland 45 plus. That's a little under two to one. That would be the safe one. There's one where we could do OKC 60 plus, Phoenix 45 plus, Cleveland 45 plus. That's a little over 4 to 1. There's a Mac Daddy one, OKC, 60 plus, Phoenix, 50 plus, Cleveland, 45 plus, plus 7,13. Or you could throw Cleveland, 50 plus and go get it to 10 to But we haven't decided yet.
I like the way it's going to be in one of those. I would take the OKC 60 and pull it down just because 60 is such rarefied area, even though I believe in... I'm in not Cleveland.
So we could do the OKC 55, Phoenix 45, Cleveland 45, around two to one and get them to boost it.
I would be okay with OKC 55, Cleveland 50, Phoenix 50. That's the way I would do it. What do you think? I'd like both those teams at 50 wins.
Well, if I like all three of them, you You can't... What was Phoenix? 49.5 in our exercise?
No, it was 47.5..
It was 47.5? Yeah. So you're going to get north of 50? Yeah.
Just at 50, right? Yeah.
But you can get super conservative and do... Anyway, they have Dando has a bunch of NBA Futures profit boost token they can do. We're going to do a page. We're going to do a Super Boost. So keep an eye on all that stuff because they are going to have a Bill Simmons NBA Futures profit boost tied to this Going live Friday, October 18th. Three futures that will be eligible for the boost, so we'll figure that out. But it's going to be, I think those are the three teams, right? Okc, Cleveland, Phoenix. We like those three, or is there another one you would get excited about?
No, because I think the payout on it.
Yeah.
Right. I mean, look, Phoenix, even if we can all sit here saying, Hey, it's going to be over. It's going to be better, they're going to understand, they're going to point guard a new coach, and all these different things. They get hurt all the time. Right.
So 45 Five is safer than fifty.
Okay. Investor conference?
It's an investor relations call. It's a double call.
I'm so confused.
Two names? It's- Two stocks.
Darius Garland stock. Where are we sitting?
Broke his jaw last year. I made so much on it early.
You sold?
It was just ridiculous. The profit was staring me in my...
So you jumped out?
No, I didn't get out, but I took some profits.
Took some off the table. Took some off. Took He came off the table. It's fine. Smart. If you think it's at a high, you take a little off.
You thought he stunk.
How dare you? You did. Broke his jaw last year.
No, in the beginning.
I thought he was a mess. I thought he seemed small. I got talked into it.
He does disappear sometimes.
I'd like to recommend- That's fine. I'm not selling these. Can I make a recommendation on the call?
Yeah.
I'd like to go back in and buy a little more. When Spotify was down to 75, it's like, yeah. When Netflix dropped to 250.
Was that after the Markel pod?
That was a good one. I'd like to go back in and buy more Garland. I think he had a fucked up ear last year. You've broken jaw, and then you have to play basketball.
These chips aren't going to buy themselves, Bill.
All right, let's go to Evan Mobley. How are we feeling? He got a giant contract.
I loved him when Allen wasn't playing.
So is that the answer? That's the reason to buy more stock, because ultimately, Jared Allen is probably not going to be on this team, and Evan Mobley will be the.
They're a fucked up team that I like.
That's one reason. But what if Mobley and Allen can play together? What if Kenny Atkinson encourages What if Evan Mobley has been putting up a thousand threes a morning? Every morning.
We'll know in the first week if he's looking super comfortable.
Go ahead, guys. Are you serious? Like, Mobley is all of a sudden just going to be draining threes.
It's 23 He's 10 years old.
There needed to be some real tangible improvement on the ball skills with him to round him out and being the player we could hope that he would be. It feels like that's not happening. But I still like what I saw in the Boston series when Alan wasn't out there. So you sold your stock? I don't have the same price target on it that we did three years ago.
My price target was too high. Those guys are incredible.
It's a tiny by low. After the stock goes down 30%, be like, It's over here. It's so and so investments. Have we changed our price target? After you lost me 30% in my position.
Are you locking down Cleveland over?
Yes, it's a lock. 48 and a half. I have it as a lock as well. Absolutely. Not even close. No hesitation or reservation. Rosilla?
I don't know. I don't think you've locked anything yet. We'll do it at the end of the end of the-I'm waiting on the lock. End of part three, we'll do it.
I'm going to see where I'm at. Okay.
Next team, Indiana Pacers. 47 and a half is the number. They won 47 games last year. They made the conference finals. Why wouldn't they be better? Basically brought back the same team, including Siakam, who was there for the full year.
That's not the same team.
But the same team we saw in the This is my question, Marcelo. Are we sure this isn't the everything went great for this team last year team? Everything went awesome.
We're not sure. You did the Atlanta Hawks, basically, like the fluky conference finals run that we had from Dallas. Yeah, it was great.
Took some people by surprise for six weeks.
Atlanta is the best example of it because Atlanta talked themselves into thinking that they were in that neighborhood. Portland had one of those against Golden State where they got destroyed by them. Dallas in '22, maybe with Golden State a little bit because it's not the same team, but as far as having Luka. So that one's not as fluky as those other two. I understand your point. The Knicks at the end of it, who's left?
They beat Milwaukee without Giannis. They beat the falling apart Knicks, got swept by the South But the games were a little closer than a sweep.
The first game, they gave game one away. It's the single thing that I hold against Halliburton more than anything else.
They blew two of those games in an epic fashion. Yeah, they did.
Epic.
Forty-one games with Siakam, though. Only 41 games.
I thought this was the single hardest over under. Oh, I'm so surprised. I changed my mind on it a hundred times. I'm like the tiniest of tiny unders. I think they go 47 and 35. I couldn't get into the 48, 49, 50 range because I just think a lot of things went right for them last year.
Here's why I would distinguish this team from some of those other teams that went on playoff runs, and then we didn't really see them being able to hold it up. Nemhardt was an effing revelation in the playoff, and I don't think he's a flash in the pan. I think that's sustainable. I think that dude can be counted on. When you see that level of execution, that efficiency offensively, that's not an accident. Then Matheron didn't play. Matheron wasn't part of that team that went on that run, and I think he's good. I think they're deep. The thing they have to do is play some goddamn defense. It's on Rick Carlyle in this offseason to figure out how they're going to play. See, I can should help with that. Should. All they need to be is middle of the road defense defensively. They need to not be bottom five defensively. They can still play at the pace they play at, and that pace is effing badass. They asked, Boston, who do you fear in these playoffs? They're like, Indiana, because they play such a unique style. Well, they're a super hard matchup. I'm on the over for this team.
I can't really fight any of that. What do you have, Marcelo?
I had the under because McDermott's no longer signed. What? I went back to the over because they got friend James Wiseman. There he is. He's in a rotation. There he is. That's an over for me. There he is.
He's only 24.
He's just scratching the surface.
It's like when Darko ended up on- Orlando. You're like, Yeah, Memphis is tapping into something here.
Orlando gave up a lottery pick for him. I don't feel- I think that was a Rodney Stuckey pick.
I don't know. Double check. I just thought this was super hard. I'm against you guys in this one. One thing on Halliburton, I'm glad House brought them up. I was thinking they don't do the All-MBA the same way where we don't have to pick two guards, even though I still do it because I like to stay a little traditional. But I was thinking about how hard the All-MBA crop is going to be this year just on paper, because Luka counts as a guard, SGA, Jalen Brunson, Curry, Edwards, Mitchell, Booker, Fox, Halliburton, John Morant. And then you even go into this Kyrie, Jamal Murray, Tyrese Maxx, Harden, Damian Lillard, Mikael Bridges group. It might be the deepest list of A-list guards that we've had. I can't believe I'm looking at this list. I had Halliburton as my Ninth best guard heading into the season. Halliburton was really good last year.
Remember how good he was before the All-Star break, which I also think is part of the conversation- He got hurt. That we're having, that I think is worth at least bringing up. 43 games pre-All-Star, 22, 4, 12, 49, 40 shooting splits. The assist are just out of control at that point. Eight threes a game. Then he's got the groin thing. He was missing time. We didn't know when he was coming back, and the shooting went from 40 to 30% from three. The assist went down The points went down. You know what? Fuck it.
I'm changing.
There was going to be less shots because of Siakam. It's my first change. But I love that house brought up the Matheron part, too, because look, maybe Matheron is not a long term two guard, small forward, where you just pencil in for 20. But when that guy comes in, second unit is just attack, attack, attack. I think they still want to see if they have something to walk or the lottery pick from Houston. Maybe that's why McDermott's not on the roster anymore. In the GM survey, too, they were like, who runs the best offensive system? It was overwhelming. It was Rick Carlyle.
I changed my mind.
Over. T. J. Mcdonald was on this team.
Nemhart turned into. They're good.
Sometimes it scares me about it. It feels like they're trying to... Why is it so low?
Halliburton at the Olympics was incredible. All of his Caitlin Clark stuff. Halliburton, his girlfriend, her friends with Caitlin and her boyfriend. They got their whole thing. I just like, I think he's a good like.
I'm going under now. What was that?
That was I want to make sure Tommy Altaer is still listening to the pod. Segway.
No, I'm mentioning it because I like the glue concept of it, right?
No, he was an awesome teammate.
You want your leader to be a glue guy.
Back to over. I didn't understand. I'm going.
That's all?
You don't like Caitlin Clark?
They signed Wiseman and you were back in. All right, I'm changing my pick.
I'm going over.
You guys talk me into it. I just want to be right. I want us all to be right. Chicago Bulls.
Yes, under. I hate this team. I like Gitty, Lonzo. I'm thrilled. He's going to be playing the first game since January 14th of '22. Or is it, wait, is it '21?
I had him in the depth chart with a question mark next to him because I don't know if he's going to play, but I hope he does.
Oh, that's right. Yeah, it's going to be almost three years. They resigned Patrick Williams, I think maybe because they heard-For a lot of money. They heard Presty liked him.
Is that true?
No, I couldn't believe that contract. I would have believed that. He hasn't really even done anything yet. I thought it was awful.
I thought it was awful.
I'm excited. This team-I like Buzellas. This is a team stuck in something that's not good.
A lot of Buzellas, bud. House was talking about him yesterday. He made me go to Google.
I did go to 10:1, Rookey of the Year.
House bet him for Rookey of the Year.
Still have some Dale and Terry shares.
I just think that Buzellas is going to get run. When you look at the rookies that are going to get minutes with this lineup, with this team, with this constitution, I think the kids are going to get some shine. They have a top 10 protected draft pick. But here's the thing that makes it hard for the over-under. You can be among the 10 worst teams and still win 30 or 31 games. If you look at last season.
I don't know if that's going to be the case this year, though. Also, when you're top 10, you can't really fuck around. You really have to get in the bottom eight. Okay, fair enough. Bottom eight is like 28 down.
Is it worth it? Because I did the five worst win totals in the last five years. And it's higher than you think it is.
For what? The eight spot?
No, the five worst win totals. So who had the least amount of win. So last year, it was 14, 15, 21, 22. Two years ago, 17, 22, 22, 27, 33. 33 wins was the fifth lowest. Fifth, yeah. I think it's important to do these just as we start getting in some of these. I agree. Three years ago, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25. Four years ago, 17, 20, 21, 22, 22. And then it was a disaster five years ago, '15, '19, '19, '19, '19, '20.
Something that has to do with how top heavy the league is, though. It feels like the league is top heavier this year than usual.
When we've done this now for years, at least with me being invited into it, which I appreciate, I've had overwhelming theories on how to handle the bad teams, and you go, okay, well, the Cooper flag is the prize, then it's going to get really weird here at the end. But I thought that was going to be the same thing with Wembenyama, and it still felt like it took too long. Tanking doesn't feel as extreme today as it was years ago, and that's probably partly due with the playing game and flattening the odds a little bit on the lottery.
39 and 43 last year, and House made the key point. Top 10 protected pick owed to the Spurs?
I'm taking the over because I think that they are going to win 28 games.
Yeah, right. I mean, sometimes with the explanation of the over, it's like, What's wrong with you? And you're like, No, I still think they're terrible.
Yeah, they are terrible. So you're going over? Yeah.
No, I'm going under. They've got a million guards. I feel like the Levine part of it, that boy, I mean, he just...
Tough summer for Zack.
I don't think... Did he not iron?
Didn't have the investor relations call for Zack. So This team the last nine years was 310 and 401, which is six worst. I finally was able to get StatMuse to give me that after I searched it nine different ways. Are you sure it's right?
It seems right. You need to check it.
It seems right.
I swear to God, StatMuse is just a huge joke. They're just back there in a room. Just fucking with us? A guy just asked for the Celtics home and away record in the '60s. Tell them that Steve Carlton had 40 complete games in a row.
That'd be amazing. If it was all the wrong information.
I don't understand where this is going. I already did it at the top.
How many championships have the Bulls one? Eighteen.
This may not be what you want, But...
And then they push the subscriber button where it's like, for StatMuse subscribers, get all this. I'm like, you're not even worth the rent.
Andres Galeja was originally from. What the fuck is this?
Anyway, after this year, because they're going to be bad, they're probably be the bottom three for the last 10 years. But I was looking at the Reindsdorffs because this is now year 10 of the We Don't Really Give A Shit Plan. They paid the luxury tax once. They haven't won a playoff series since 2015. The Last Dance was probably their highlight of the 2020s. Just that showing on TV.
Good job.
They have six titles. They put those out. But their franchise has either quadrupled or quintupled in value over the last 10 years. There you go. They might be geniuses. There you go. Maybe they're playing this perfectly. Why pay the tax if you don't care about the team? Your franchise is going up anyway. You have the illusion of hope every year with something. This year, it's like, Hey, we got Josh Guitty. We got Kobe White.
This is the family that owns the White Sox.
Right. Hello. Good point.
Yeah. They give zero shits.
Well, Levine is untradable unless the Lakers panic. I thought Rusillo just made a key point. It's players that you would like separately But maybe not together. Kobe White with Gidey, with Lameen. I'm not sure I'm excited about that.
There's just so many guards. I don't understand. Lameen was miserable. Maybe he'll be thrilled that Derozen's gone not taking his late game possession. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe a little overtaste for you there.
Billy Donovan is not going to like- When I was talking about it, I was like, boy, his uniform wasn't iron.
You can't even get the wrinkles out for It was a picture day?
We like Bud Zellas, though. Maybe. Maybe?
Yeah. I mean, he was fun. He was raw. He was a fun draft prospect to watch. But if he can't shoot it, he's toast.
There were some interesting training camp quotes from the coaches and teammates that they seemed unusually high on him. I know they have to say whatever about the rookies, but they were like... Donovan, after the first practice was, he's going to play for us. He was just point blank.
Okay.
I'm going to this now. There's going to be no G League for this guy. He's playing for us. So we'll see. It's a Josh Gitty investor relations call.
Wow.
I'm not here.
Not interested. He's not subscribed to the call.
No, I don't want to talk to the investors.
About Josh Gitty?
Yeah, I just don't know.
Are you going to play dumb because you bought so much Josh Getty stock? Yeah. Racil and I were the only two people who liked that trade last summer. We went all in on I liked it for both teams. I just thought, I'm in on Josh Getty still. I think he's a good basketball player. I don't want to take the under because I was actually rooting for them to be fun to watch so that we would be right about the Getty Trade. But that 28.5 is too high for me. So I am going under.
Well, it's 27.5. Does that change your mind?
Is that what it is right now? I thought so. No, it went up to 28.5. Are you kidding me? Yeah. Hold on a second. No, it's 28.
I have to get out of this.
That's it? One win? 29?
I'll stay in. 29 is still pretty crappy.
What do you mean 29? That's what it is now.
I understand. I got you. Over. Then I get rewarded for my commitment.
Yeah, it's 28 and a half.
Yeah, I get it. 28 and a half. I'm going to stick Am I over?
Stab news. What is the Chicago over under? Here's the weather in Tampa.
42. All right, so house is over. Roussel and I are under. Last but not least, the Detroit Pistons. They're over under as 25 and a half. They have a new head coach, J. B. B. Bickerstaffe. They won 14 games last year. They added Tim Hardaway Jr, Malik Beazley, and the one and only, Tobias Harris, who finally is Unleashed.
Right system, right time.
Plus 980 for the playoffs, just throwing it out there. Cunningham. After the All-Star break, 25, 5, and 8, 39% I was going to have an investor relations call, but I think we're good. I don't think we need one about Cunningham.
It got really scary when there was that Ringer piece from Zack on Cade. I'm going to go, Wait, he's a super inefficient high volume guy. I hate these players. Why don't I still in? Then things got a lot better, but not great. I can't believe this team won one less game with this roster than the Wizards did. Monty Williams, this has got to be one of the worst coaching jobs. He sounded as during the season, he was surprised about players on his own team.
It was a robbery.
Yeah. Apparently, he didn't want it.
It was like Dennis themes, too. Monty Williams goes to Detroit.
He was closing games with Killing the East. He steals $80 million from them. Think about it. We're closing games with Killing the East.
Who's not in the league.
Who's not in the league as a lottery pick.
Over Ivy. Yeah, we were talking about it when it happened. I like the over, 25 and a half. I love the over. I think this team is going to be frisky. Oh, wow. All of us.
Me too. They're trying. With these acquisitions, show that they're trying.
Can you just go through the team?
Is there a better point guard depth chart than Cade, Sasser, Ivy, Wendell Moore?
It's pretty good.
Solid. Maybe the best in the league.
Listen, Thompson, I thought had some interesting moments last year. He's at least a rebounding defense guy. Fantechio was so good. Utah was like, We just got to fucking get rid of this guy. He's going to fuck up our draft pick.
Bobby Clinton, finally in the league. Ron Holland.
Big stew.
They have Fred Vincent. They hired Fred Vincent to come in and help these guys learn how to shoot.
Lamar Stevens gives you solid minutes.
Well, last year we were watching them going, who put this team together and were they drunk? Why did they just have all these big guys and guards and no shooting? And what made anyone think in 2023, this was the type of team you wanted to put together? Now they have shooting. They figured out, at least we got to just play Ivy and Cunningham together and let them figure it out. They have rebounding. Their center is one of the, I think, four best rebounding title odds this year. Then Harris, I don't know. I'm rooting for him, and I don't know why. Mainly because it would enrage Brazil if he scored 24 a game for Detroit in the first month. I am happily over on this. So, Priscilla, you're over? And House is over.
I am. I wouldn't be mad at Tobias Harris scoring Buckets. I feel like Philly didn't even appreciate him.
That was tough. For the Tobias Hyve, it was tough with the take charge. The, Hey, how are you taking a charge since 2019? Remember that?
Keep the game moving. I loved it. Less whistles.
So out of Toronto, Detroit, Chicago, Brooklyn, and Washington. I think I like Detroit the most out of those five.
Say it again.
Toronto, Detroit, Chicago, Brooklyn, Washington, and I'll throw in Charlotte, too.
Chicago might be, even though I went under on it. I I don't know. That was a reach. Last night when I went to bed, I didn't know what to do with this number, but it's just the last-ditch effort of the K to Ivy Weisman. I'm just kidding. Weisman's on the Pacers.
All right, so here's what we did. Phoenix, 47 and a half. We all went over. I made it a lock. Anyone else want to lock that down or we're going to wait. House is locking it down, too.
I don't have to wait.
Okay. Lock.
You're locking it, too? Yeah. Okay. Wow. We have that. We had the Sacramento Kings, 44.5. We all went over on that. Golden State Warriors, 43.5. Roussel and I went over. House went under. The Lakers, 42.5. I really want to put a lock on it, but I don't want to waste one. We all went under on that. Then Clippers, 37.5. We all went under, and I'm putting a lockdown on that, too, because I don't think that team is going to be very good, and it's going to be sad. Then in the central, Milwaukee, 50.5. We all went under. Cleveland, 48.5. We went over and me and house locked that one down. You want to lock that down, Rosillo?
I'll give you my I'll get a locklist when we're through it all. Because I changed my mind in the course of today.
Totally fine. Indiana, 47.5. You guys talked me into it. We all went over. Chicago, 28.5. Under Meander for me, under for Rosillo, over for House. Then finally, Detroit. Over 25.5, we all said, That sounds great. There you go. All right, that's it for part 2. Thanks again to Kyle Crain and Steve Serruti for producing. Don't forget, you can watch all these episodes on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. And get ready for part 3 because that's coming very soon. See you in part 3. On the wayside, on the wayside, let'a run say. I don't have a few years with them. On the wayside, on the wayside, let'a run say. I don't have a few years with them. On the wayside, on the wayside, let'a run say. Must be 21 plus in President Select States for Kansas, an affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President DC. Gambling problem? Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help. Com. Call 188-789-7777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp. Org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma. Org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support, Massachusetts, or call 1877-8 Hope, NY, or text Hope, NY, in New.