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Welcome to the Megyn Kelly Show your home for open, honest and provocative conversations. Hey, everyone, welcome to The Megan Kelly Show. I'm Megan Kelly, and wow, what a night. We still don't have answers. I guess we didn't really expect to have them, but we were kind of hoping we might. And in my view, this this race now comes down mostly to Michigan, also Pennsylvania. But my eyes are on Michigan. Trump still has a path to victory, though.

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It got a lot narrower when he lost Arizona. That's 11 electoral votes he really needed. And he needed to hold sort of his base states, given how tenuous his situation was looking in Michigan and in Wisconsin. And he didn't he lost Arizona, which means he's got to he's got to win one of those two states in the Midwest that he doesn't look so strong in right now.

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Anything could still happen. Pennsylvania, he's better positioned, even though there's going to be a bunch of legal challenges. And we should know more as the day and certainly as the week goes on. Look, we're joined today by some great guests. We've got Charles, C.W. Cooke, we've got Crystal Ball, we've got Sagarin getI. And I'm going to get to all of them in one second. But first, let me just pay some bills and talk to you about one of our favorite advertisers.

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Now, without further ado, Charles, C.W., Charles, thank you for being here. Can we just talk about overall thoughts? I haven't really gotten into too much with the audience here, but my my assessment at this hour, we're taping early in the morning.

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You know, mid-morning on on Wednesday is it doesn't look good for Trump. He didn't hold Arizona and that made his challenge bigger in the upper Midwest. And the votes as we slept last night, Michigan got a lot tighter. He's a worse off in Wisconsin. And the only way he can really win right now is by holding the outstanding votes he's got. He's not going to win Arizona. People think that somehow we're going to flip that result back around.

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I trust the Fox News decision desk when they call it for him, for for Biden. And so if that stands, he's probably going to win Nevada. He probably will win Georgia. Looks like he's well positioned in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, but he still can't get it done with an Arizona loss without winning Michigan, Michigan or Wisconsin. And Michigan was his best chance. And it's extremely tight. And there's a bunch of vote outstanding. And typically that doesn't look good.

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If the mail in vote in Michigan comes in in the same percentages that it's been coming in, he's going to lose because Biden's been winning that vote. According to what I read by about two, two to one or at least or possibly more, maybe even better margin anyway.

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So he could still do it. But he looked better last night when I went to sleep than he looks this morning now that I've woken up. What do you think? I think he's lost. I ran some numbers myself, and I'm not especially good with numbers, but I'm good enough to do elementary math. And given the number of outstanding ballots, I think he's going to lose. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, along with Arizona and Nevada, probably squeak through in Georgia, but that's just not enough.

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I think it'll take a few days.

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Nevada is not going to report until tomorrow, which I find bizarre, frankly, but I think Trump has lost unless there is some strange voting pattern in more than one state we've never seen before or a legal challenge cleans it up for him after the fact. But if I were to place a bet on it today, it would be that Joe Biden has extremely narrowly won.

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Why do you think he's losing Pennsylvania? The latest news this morning from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette is that Trump is leading by 12 points, about 650000 votes, but they're waiting for the mail in votes yet to be counted. But that's a pretty healthy margin.

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Well, it is, but there's one point four million votes yet to be counted. And unless The New York Times analysts that I was reading are wrong, those are going to go overwhelmingly for Biden. The numbers have been almost four to one.

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I think they revised that this morning to one million outstanding. But well, then I see your point a better chance.

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I stand corrected, but it's still not enough with the loss of Arizona. And I do think Arizona's. I think Arizona is a lot closer than it looked last night, that that one's gone in the other direction. But it won't be enough. He would need another state. And it doesn't look to me as if he's going to get it.

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Well, look, if he can reverse Arizona and the reason I'm saying I don't think he can is because I've worked with the Fox News decision desk for years. And those guys, they they don't call it unless they are 100 percent certain. I mean, they just don't. And they've been out on a limb before on many states. I've seen this with them year after year. They've gone out on a limb. They've called it. They've gotten pushback.

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You called it too soon. I've never seen them lose. I've never seen them be wrong and have to reverse it at any point other than the debacle of 2000 whenever everybody got Florida wrong. So my history with them tells me they get it right right now. I know it's getting tighter in Arizona, but they look at all that. They look at the outstanding counties. They look at they wait them to see, are they mostly Democratic or are they mostly Republican?

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You know, what are the percentages that typically go this way or that way? They'll factor in a secret Trump vote. They'll factor in all of that. And they wouldn't have called it unless they were convinced Trump could do it in Arizona.

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So if he flips it, though, if he does do it, it's he's back in business because then he'd only need Pennsylvania. And I mean, of course, assuming he gets Georgia and North Carolina and the other ones we were talking about, but then of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, he'd only have to hold on to Pennsylvania and he could lose Michigan and Wisconsin.

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That's correct. I have a model which is a very fancy way of saying a spreadsheet that shows Trump losing Arizona by sixty thousand at the end of all of this. So it is just about possible in large part because. Maricopa County, which has historically been Republican but has been moving toward the Democrats in recent years, is a big suburb, essentially. It's an enormous sprawling. Suburb, and you can't always tell how those votes are going to come in.

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Much as Trump has struggled with suburban voters, but I concur. I think the Fox just got that right, although they did call it very early, surprisingly early. And I don't think it's going to turn around. Michigan, the latest numbers are Biden's losing by about thirteen thousand votes, but there are some three hundred and sixty thousand estimated votes yet to be counted. And again, they've been they've been going I think it's 67 percent to 32 percent, Biden v.

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Trump. So if the mail in votes and so if that continues, you can see why people would think Biden is going to win Michigan now. You know, so we don't know. But I think we're both on the same page that as of this morning doesn't look that great for Trump.

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Can we just talk about the other messages that you took away from last night? Sure. Well, the fact that we're having this conversation. Is extraordinary, given the polling. Now, I never believed that this race was as one for Biden as the press and the pollsters suggested, I often felt self-conscious feeling this and I developed this gap between my gut and my head. But I couldn't talk my head into supporting what I was feeling given the polls once again.

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The polls. Well, off, they were dramatically off, and it's not just in America that this is the case, they were often Brexit in Britain. They were off in the 12 19 British general election. They were often the Australian general election. There is a problem with polling and in the media in general. And I think it's two fold. One, it just for some reason does not pick up centre right voters, especially center right voters in working class areas and increasingly centre right voters in Hispanic and sometimes African-American areas.

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And the second problem is that I don't think anyone in the press really knows any Trump voters or knows what it would feel like to be one knows what it would feel like to be on the other end of our ongoing culture war. And as a result, what we saw was a prediction of a Trump.

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Landslide defeat, and it didn't come to pass. I mean, he almost won, it is still possible at the margins that he will win.

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And so I think that even though Biden is likely to prevail here, this was a terrible, terrible night for the Democratic Party.

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This was an embarrassing night for the Democratic Party. They didn't get their landslide. They didn't flip Texas, they didn't flip Florida. They have, it seems, one in the Midwest. But there was no repudiation. The Republicans seem to have. Kept control of the Senate and in fact, by the same models in my spreadsheet that I mentioned, I have the Republican Party losing only one seat net here and they've picked up seats in the House. They've picked up seats in state legislatures.

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This was not how this was supposed to go. This was not what we were told to expect. And it is time, even if it is the case that Biden is beaten Trump for people who tell us authoritatively all the time what is true and what is happening, to realize that they don't have a particularly strong grasp on reality.

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Yeah, I totally agree with you. I think my biggest takeaway last night is how these pollsters don't know anything about America.

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They just don't understand anything other than their, quote, elite liberal tend to be media circles and it's an echo chamber.

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And there was a secret or QAI Trump vote. We saw it come out last night. And as I said in this podcast a few times prior to yesterday, the only real question in the election was how big it would be, how big would it be if it did exist. And shockingly to some, you saw it exist in some minority communities.

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And that's really just stunned the media and the Democrats we heard on TV last night they could not believe that Hispanics went overwhelmingly for Trump in places like Miami-Dade County, and he did well with them in Texas. And they you know, they've spent four years telling us he is a xenophobic, racist bigot and they were melting down when you saw Trump do very well with a group who the exit polls tell us are really focused on the economy, that they're not into these identity politics.

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They want to do well economically. They want opportunity.

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And all the just the pearl clutching we've seen over four years about how awful he was. And Trump pushing back, saying, no, no, no, no, no. It's it's your refusal that the governors hold the governed in contempt.

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And I'm here to expose it resonated and it may not have pushed him over the finish line, but boy, oh, boy, I don't think without a serious reckoning by the Democrats in the media, I just don't think anything's going to change. I think we'll go right back into bad polls and in the midterm elections and we'll have two to four more years over this next election cycle of similarly biased coverage. I don't know what it's going to take for them to get it.

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You know, maybe it would have taken a clear Trump win, which, again, he could still do. And one of the topics that has been dear to National Review's heart of late is this illiberalism that you have begun to see in the media, in the academy in Hollywood that drives people who disagree with whatever prevailing cultural sentiments it is assumed they should believe out of the public square, either that silences them preemptively by raising the cost of them, saying what they really believe or of actually trying to get them fired or to participate in a struggle session or what you will.

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And that's bad enough. But I think where it gets really sinister and really totalitarian is that those who have inflicted this illiberalism on the country seem simultaneously to have started believing that its results are real. And so you've got a real social cost to anyone who supports Donald Trump or thinks that his message should resonate, but also this disbelief from those who are imposing that social costs, that the people upon whom it's being imposed actually don't really believe it.

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And so they convince themselves, I think, over time that they've won, that they've re educated the population. But of course, you can't take that social pressure into the voting booth. I mean, I voted in Florida by mail. I sat at the desk, which I work every day, and I filled in a little circle and I put it in the. And the post-box. Nobody came and looked over my shoulder. Nobody threatened to fire me.

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Nobody told me I was right or wrong or reprehensible or virtuous. And this is this is an increasing problem because it's created this disconnect between how people actually behave in their own homes and when they get to vote secretly and and what people say in public and as well as being bad in and of itself, you just don't want that sort of a liberal culture in a free country. It's actually really harming the left because it's taking away from them any real opportunity to work out what people truly think, what they believe, what's important to them.

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And again, that we were just having a conversation about whether Trump is going to squeak this out, given what we have been told is utterly extraordinary. And I don't think we should lose sight of that, even as Joe Biden looks likely to become president elect. The the need to hold on to identity politics as the as the source of all, you know, everything good and bad, if it's good, they say it's because they triumphed.

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And their message, if it's if their results are bad, they they say the same. They say it's because people didn't listen to their virtue signalling. And what we saw last night was people like Jemele Hill, who is just I mean, she sees everything through the prism of race.

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She retweeted polls don't have an algorithm for racism as as Trump was doing well in the States.

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And then she tweeted, if Trump wins re-election, it is on white people, no one else. Meanwhile, the only group that Trump underperformed with in twenty twenty versus twenty sixteen, according to the exit poll so far, is white men.

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He he improved his margins with everyone else. And yet you have, Jamelle, you have people like Arne Duncan, Obama's education secretary. This is the guy who made who got rid of due process for young men on college campuses when they've been accused of sexual assault. I mean, got rid of it entirely and he's never apologized. He came out with a tweet. We need to talk a lot less about red and blue and a lot more about whiteness that they won't let go.

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They're not they're not going to see this even a Biden win as some sort of proof they should move on from that message. The message itself is destructive. But it's also. Farcical if you go down to South Florida and you talk to. Hispanics from Cuba, Venezuela, Colombia, increasingly Brazil, presumably in the future. Chile, given the socialist reforms, they're on the verge of making. And you try all of this. Faddy University led new speak with them.

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They won't just reject it and say, no, I don't like that. That's not what I believe. They will look at you funny. I mean, this phrase, Latin X, this term, it's not just that that it's silly. It's that no one in the real world has actually ever heard it. If you look at polling on this. About five percent of Hispanics of all. Walks of life in all locations, Hispanic is a very wide group, California Hispanics are different than Texas and Hispanics are different than Floridian Hispanics, but all of them are baffled by that if they've heard of it at all.

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And one percent of them like it.

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The disconnect between Jemele Hill and normal people and when I say normal people, I'm not saying real Americans, I'm not talking about people who agree with me or don't live in particular areas.

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All normal people getting on with their lives, going to work in the morning, raising families, driving to the liquor store and back.

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They just have no idea what the mental health of the world are talking about. And again, that's something that needs to be fixed because it she may as well have put out a bunch of tweets in Latin and it's just extremely sad.

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But she she does speak for a faction, a large faction of the Democratic Party that that sees the country as awful, and especially when it does something they don't like electorally. The actor John Cusack, who's been terrible, he sent out a tweet last night. This is an utterly damning portrait of decadence and decay. These aren't votes for policies or ideologies. They are votes for a man who is mentally ill and killing people in a pandemic and a child abducting rapist and racist.

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The soul of the United States is deathly sick.

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Like who are these people?

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They don't you know, meanwhile, you have sane people like Joe Trippi, who we had on the show yesterday, Democrat pollster and analysts saying, look, Biden is going to win. He said he's going to get the 270. But this is a rejection. It's been a rejection of elites. We we scoffed at the attacks on Joe Biden as a socialist. We rolled our eyes. But this was a rejection of elites.

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And he says and as someone who's who's read polls for 40 years, it's all broken.

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People don't want to hear this, he said. But we have to come out of our silos and talk to Republican voters.

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Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the socialist attack, as it's called. Because I was struck last night by how patronizing some of the explanations I saw for the way that Floridians voted, especially were the explanation that popped up almost immediately, was, well, Trump and his friends went down into South Florida and they tricked the voters there.

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They tricked them into circulation as if they're idiots. And they're not that they're not normal human beings that know better or worse than anyone else. But if your view is that the people that you are dealing with, our children who can be easily tricked, then you're going to behave a certain way. And it's probably not a way that's going to win many majorities. Mm hmm.

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We spend one minute on just how wrong the polls were. I mean, Nate Silver had Donald Trump with a thirty one percent chance of winning Florida. Thirty one percent chance Washington Post had Biden up 17 points. Going into this election, you go through the list of like the the the margins that they were giving Biden in state after state after state in states. It looks like Trump is still going to win, right? I don't know.

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I mean, his polling over what does this do to polling? I don't think they know much more about what's happening in America than I do. And it's sad because. Polling is a useful tool, it's perhaps an overused tool. And that also goes to our tendency and perhaps the tendency in any democracy to assume that if a majority is in favor of something, it must be good. But it is a useful tool and and it's used for more than just predicting elections, it's used as a calibration tool by politicians to work out what to think and what people want.

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And something I've been thinking about recently is if the polling is so off when it comes to predicting elections.

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Maybe it's completely off when it comes to finding out whether a policy is popular or not or voters think that a proposal is a good idea or not and that's a problem.

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I'm really enjoying dunking on the posters, as has happened over and over again, but I wish they were better. What they do and to be honest with you, it strikes me that we're just going to have to have a complete rethink, whether it's partly because the pollsters are biased or insular, whether it's partly because people don't want to talk to them for whatever reason, or whether it's partly because people's habits are different now.

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If you watch any movie in the 1980s, they stand in the kitchen with the phone and there's a cord that goes from the phone up to the. The cradle, that's obviously not how people live now and polling hasn't really caught up with with that, it's still built around an older model.

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Well, and it's also it's also affected by what happens in the media, which is 100 percent against the Republicans and certainly Donald Trump.

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And so even if you have the best method for connecting with people, this is what your father has been saying, that they're going to tell you the truth. You know, that's that they're there. We saw evidence of that yesterday with this, you know, the QAI Trump voter. I I want to ask you two quick things. So you mentioned that you think the GOP is going to hold the Senate. How confident are we of that? I mean, they needed a flip.

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If Biden wins, the Democrats need to flip a net of three seats. It doesn't look like they're going to. From what I've seen. But how confident are you that's not happening?

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I'm fairly confident that there will eventually be a Republican majority at the moment. The remaining seats are Maine, where Susan Collins looks as if she's going to win. Are North Carolina, which hasn't been called, but Tillis has declared himself the winner and no one has argued with him. Alaska, which I'm not worried about, Michigan, I think John James, unfortunately, is going to lose at the last, but that won't change the overall balance. And then the two seats in Georgia.

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So this could change. What about those? Is that there. There are weird I don't totally understand the Georgia situation. I just know that it's there's some sort of a runoff they may have like, it confuses me. It's like a pair of undetermined races in Georgia that may require yet another vote. Is that going to affect the Republican likely control? Yes.

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So what happens in Georgia is if a candidate doesn't get to 50 percent, then there's a runoff election. So in one of the races, Perdue versus also there are two candidates. And as long as Perdue makes it over 50 percent, he will win and he will be certified immediately. In the other race, there were three candidates, there were two Republicans and one Democrat. And so none of them obviously got to 50 percent. So that race is going to be held in a few weeks, I think, in early January.

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And that will be between the Democrat Warnock and Kelly Loeffler, who beat Doug Collins between the two Republicans in the race.

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So if she is. If she'll make it, then they would go down to 51. But they would still have a majority. All things being equal. Can you imagine what life is going to be like, Charles, if you have Biden in the White House in a GOP controlled Senate? I mean, what's what does that do to the Biden agenda? I mean, there because these Republicans are going to be more motivated by, I think, Trump politics than ever.

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They've been rewarded for them at their level. You know, the voters may have not like the man Trump, but if the Republicans hold on to the Senate, a different message has been sent about the promised Biden agenda.

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Yeah, it'll be interesting in that Joe Biden, if he does prevail, is going to be the first president of the United States since 1988 not to come into office with a majority in both houses.

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Every other president came in with control of the Senate and the House. It's nineteen eighty eight and that's going to change the locus of power. And usually the president comes in his new he's exciting, he's popular, he's in his honeymoon period, and you get your first 100 days, you get this explosion of energy and effort. And the congressional party, which tends to believe it is there on the coattails of the president, goes along with it helps because that's not going to happen this time.

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You're going to have presumably Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell with a completely different agenda to Joe Biden's.

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So a lot of the things on Joe Biden's wish list will just disappear until like tax hikes.

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Well, tax hikes, gun control, court packing, the abolition of the filibuster, pretty much everything on that. The public option, any changes to fracking on federal land that can't be done via regulation. All that's gone. And of course, although they will have to be some compromises on judges, crazy left wing judges will probably be rejected. Where you might see some harmony in Washington for once will be and you've guessed this, Maegan, spending lots of money because there's going to be a bipartisan desire to mitigate the shock of coronavirus.

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And there is still a bipartisan desire, especially in a more populist Republican Party, to do some infrastructure. Never got done under Trump. It probably will get done under Biden.

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But other than that, you'll be looking at relatively calm waters unless something unforeseen happens. What what happens now, I don't I don't mean to pronounce Trump's death sentence in this race because he is still in it. Charles and I are just being realistic about the numbers that are outstanding and using the percentages of votes that have been allotted to each candidate based on the vote coming in so far. So he could still win.

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So I don't mean to be too dower on his chances, though. Math is math. You have to have to be realistic.

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But what happens now if Trump did not win?

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Because we've been talking about legal challenges and so on. As I said, those are mostly going to be Pennsylvania, North Carolina legal challenges. I haven't heard a lot about likely legal challenges in Michigan or Arizona.

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So it could be a quote unquote, clean win if he loses in those states as opposed to and maybe wins in Pennsylvania.

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But does he do you think he would concede? And and what of the Republican Party? You know, his imprint to me seems pretty secure. I dread the coming weeks, I dread the coming weeks if Trump has lost, because I suspect that he will claim that he has won, the idea that he was going to barricade himself in the White House was always far fetched, and it also conceded too much. It's not his decision whether he wins or loses, and it's not his decision whether he stays as president or not.

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But he does have a bad habit of pretending that he won things that he didn't think back to the popular vote in 2016 of throwing around charges of fraud where there was little evidence and of trying to bludgeon his way through difficult situations. This is a difficult situation. It's a sensitive situation. It's the situation none of us wanted. And the instincts that he showed last night were, frankly, disgraceful, and, you know, they are why he's not.

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Taking a victory lap this morning, having won a bigger victory, a cleaner victory, he's his own worst enemy that he behaves in this way is why so many people couldn't vote for him and just don't know what you're talking about.

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He he came out, declared himself the winner. He said, yes, sorry, I have won. Yeah. He's I think we have actually solved by just in case. Take a listen.

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We will win this. And as far as I'm concerned, we already have one. So I just want to thank you.

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Yeah. So he they haven't already won it. That's not true.

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And he got a lot of flack for suggesting that because it's one thing to stretch the truth or be full of puffery on a subject when it's relatively low stakes or people can understand that that's all it is. But in a presidential election, it's extraordinary to have one candidate say that before all the votes are counted and when it's very much uncertain, yeah, it's an apparent lie and it hurts him.

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Two, there are two reasons why politicians should not do that. The main one is that it hurts the country. It damages the office and it erodes trust in our institutions, which matter. That's the main one. That's the most important one. The second one is that it's against their self-interest. You actually gain a lot in life by saying we will wait and see. I want this process to be fair. If I've lost, I've lost. If I've won, I've won.

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And I hope to see the results upheld, because then if you do claim that you've won for good reason, people don't think that you're just blustering through and lying. Well, he's now said something that isn't true. That's not to say he hasn't won. He could still win. But what he said was untrue last night and it's untrue this morning and it does bode ill, I'm afraid. And if he carries on like that, then whatever his long term effect on the Republican Party and on the country, much of which has been good, will be it will be clouded out and he will leave under a cloud.

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You know, he doesn't want that to be the final message, but I don't know. You know, I'm sure the legal teams are poring over every single thing that happened last night in Michigan.

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When I went to bed, Trump had a lead over one hundred thousand. And then apparently what happened was in in like an instant, it was cut in half. And people were saying, where did all those votes come from?

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You know, there's all sorts of conspiracy theories, but they're one thing I'm comforted by is that the Trump team will make good insure that if Biden has won this thing, every vote is as legitimate as we can know.

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And I'm in favor of some legal testing here. I really am.

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I think it's kind of nuts how in Pennsylvania they're talking about, you know, well, maybe, you know, we're going to try to figure out if a postmark is smudged, whether it really was dated prior to Election Day or on Election Day. Like, that's that's nuts. That can't happen. That's exactly how voter fraud happens. And there's no leeway in the law for these vote counters to be making those determinations. That was never considered that some vote counter would be making subjective decisions about how to figure out whether this vote counts or not.

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It's like if the post-box clear, you can count it. If it's not, it's got to go in the to be contested pile at least anyway.

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So for what it's worth, that's that's our predictions. I mean, Charles and I are on the same page when it comes to the math. I will confess it's never been my strong suit.

[00:35:15]

But people, people who are smarter than I am are saying this is how it looks for Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and so on. Charles, thank you so much.

[00:35:24]

Thank you so much for having me. So in just a minute, we're going to be joined by Crystal Ball and Sagarin Geddie co-hosts of Rising on the Hill Dotcom for their take. But first, let's talk about Norton 360 with LifeLock. How much is your personal information worth to cyber criminals, do you think? Researchers have compiled an overview of the average price of stolen personal data for sale on the Dark Web? And while online banking logins cost an average of 35 bucks, the range of documents and account details needed to commit identity theft cost around twelve hundred eighty five dollars.

[00:35:59]

The bulk of the stolen information comes from large scale data breaches. You put your information in so many places online, don't you?

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Sign up today and save twenty five percent or more off of your first year by going to Norton dot com slash mark. That's 25 percent of Norton 360 with LifeLock at Norton Dotcom. OK, before we get to our guests, I want to tell you about a woman named Jodi. This is part of Our Devil May Care All Stars feature that we want to bring to you. This is these are people standing up against council culture or the ridiculous identity politics we see everywhere.

[00:37:14]

And this woman comes from all places. Smith College, one of the most liberal we might be No.

[00:37:19]

One could be number one most liberal college campus in the nation. And I highly recommend looking at her video online, because when you meet Jodi Shaw, you see she's not particularly forceful in her delivery.

[00:37:33]

She's a Stafford Smith. She's not on the faculty, which she makes sure to point out. But this woman is kind of a badass. She's taking a stand against their desire to push everyone around based on skin color. And Jodi has decided to do a series of videos offering specific examples of what's happening at Smith and pushing back against the faculty and the student body and shouting out to the other folks on Smith who are sick of it, saying, come talk to me.

[00:38:03]

This is protected discussion. We cannot be fired for pushing back against this nonsense. And she's leading the charge. Here's a sample of what Jodi has to say.

[00:38:12]

I ask that Smith College stop reducing my personhood to a racial category. Stop telling me what I must think and feel about myself, because I feel like you do that a lot.

[00:38:29]

I know you do that a lot, and I, I need you to stop doing that. Stop presuming to know who I am or what my culture is based upon my skin color, because you don't know that, you don't know that about any body except for yourself.

[00:38:46]

Stop asking me to project stereotypes and assumptions onto others based upon their skin color, because I feel like.

[00:38:54]

That's what you asked me to do incessantly. Over and over again for the past three years, and I'm not going to do that pretty great and listen to her, it's so simple. I'm just not going to do that. I just I refuse. This is one of the ways forward.

[00:39:12]

A lot of us have been talking about what is the way forward when you're when your corporation pushes you like this to to judge everybody based on pigmentation? Well, Jody Shaw says the answer is, I'm not going to do that.

[00:39:23]

I love that she went out to say, look, we have the right to work in an environment that is free from the ever present terror, that any unverified student allegation of racism or any other ism might crush our reputation, ruin our lives and even endanger us or our family members. And so I kind of been thinking for a while that sort of using the law to protect these discussions and people's right to not be judged based on skin color might be the way forward in this ridiculous cancel culture and shaming of people based on pigmentation.

[00:39:57]

And I think Jodi Shaw is on the right track. So she said devil may care all star for a reason.

[00:40:04]

OK, joining me now, crystal ball and soccer and getti of the hills rising. Great to have you here this morning, guys. Thank you for coming.

[00:40:12]

Oh, it's our pleasure, as always. Good to see you, Megan. So, OMG, I mean, that's pretty one.

[00:40:18]

That's my full analysis. That's it. Right. It's like it was a nail biter. It's still ongoing. I'd love to start with just where you think we are right now and how this likely shakes out. And I'll I usually start with Crystal, but so as not to be a sexist pig. I'm going to start with you, Saagar.

[00:40:34]

You go well, Megan, it's ten thirty nine a.m. here on the East Coast. As you and I are talking right now, it looks like there are enough votes for Biden to pull it out with extraordinarily small margins in Michigan and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and in Arizona. And he would actually only need to win Michigan and Wisconsin and Arizona in order to eke out the Electoral College victory if Georgia also comes in with a small margin as well. But there's a lot of lessons to be learned here.

[00:41:05]

I mean, the Latino over performance for Donald Trump is nothing short of astounding and something Kristol might have been laughing about all day is that the only group that Trump underperformed with last night was white men over amongst black men, black women, Latino men, Latino women, white women. I mean, could you find an MSNBC analyst who would have predicted that one?

[00:41:29]

It totally ruins the narrative. Yeah, it's incredible. I mean, something I'm personally obsessed with is this Zapata County down in Texas. I'm from Texas and this is in the Rio Grande Valley, a ninety five percent Hispanic district that Hillary won. Sixty five to thirty two last time Trump won that county, won that county by fifty two percent of the vote. This time around, I never in my lifetime thought that I would see something like that happen.

[00:41:57]

He also won forty seven percent of the vote in Stark County, similar nearby in the Rio Grande Valley. Ninety five percent Hispanic, one of the poorest districts in the entire country, and a section with new border wall. So again, these are just these are things which fly completely to the narrative that the media has presented here.

[00:42:16]

But, Saagar, I was told that the reason he won with Hispanics and Latinas, Latinos in Florida is because they were all Cuban-Americans who, by the way, MSNBC explained to me last night, are actually white.

[00:42:29]

And you're not allowed to refer to them as Hispanics when they vote for President Trump.

[00:42:32]

That's the pretty much the exception to being a Hispanic. You lose your right to say you are one. But these are not Cuban-Americans. You're talking about these Texas counties.

[00:42:43]

No, not at all. These are some third, fourth, fifth generation Hispanic Americans, many of them even identified as white, Hispanic. Again, these are things which nobody in the mainstream media is capable of really understanding. But there's complex dynamics, which is that people do not vote in monolithic groups. They are motivated by different issue areas. And the overall bet that they were just going to come in because of no quote unquote norms or going back to normal and more was a dramatic miscalculation by the Biden campaign.

[00:43:13]

Now, look, it worked out in Arizona. We have to be honest here. It did work out for him in Arizona largely, I think, because they spent a decent amount of money in that state. But they wrote off or they want to take for granted Texas Latinos last night and they dramatically made a mistake. They had a good get out the vote.

[00:43:29]

The Democrats had a good get out the vote effort in in Arizona.

[00:43:35]

Can I just tell you, as of right now, the Trump team is saying that they are going to win Pennsylvania, that they're confident. And he is ahead a lot in Pennsylvania right now, but they still have to count all the mail in votes, which they weren't allowed to count until yesterday, starting yesterday. So the Trump team still thinks is going to win Pennsylvania. But of course, that isn't a ballgame because since he lost Arizona. So it appears he's he's got.

[00:43:58]

Win Michigan, he's got to win Michigan, and the Trump campaign is saying that they believe they will win Georgia. He needs that, too. They believe they're going to win Michigan.

[00:44:07]

They believe they're going to win Nevada, which I don't know about that. And they say they'll they'll win all of those if we count all the legal ballots, if you count all the legal ballots. Now, I don't know exactly what that means. But, Crystal, I will say I understand the legal issues are going to go after in Pennsylvania because they extended the vote. They've been already fighting that one out, saying you can't take mail in ballots that come after that are postmarked on Election Day and that aren't read until after Election Day.

[00:44:40]

And they are doing that. They lost that legal fight. They had similar fights in other states that the US Supreme Court said, we're not going to review that now. But if this becomes a thing where we have a split between the states and so on, we might take it up. We might. And so, boy, that's the Hail Mary.

[00:44:56]

If somehow the Trump team manages to cancel out the votes that were mailed on Election Day but not opened until after, oh, my God.

[00:45:06]

Then this country is in for some sort of a hellhole week of brutal bloody knuckle legal brawling. Yeah.

[00:45:15]

And frankly, I don't think that that is likely to occur because based on there isn't much of a legal ground to stand on in any of these states, maybe in Pennsylvania might be the one where there's the diciest questions. But given that they lost Arizona, the fact that Biden has now come now has a narrow lead in both Michigan and Wisconsin that is expected only to expand. I think it's a pretty tough landscape ultimately for President Trump. I mean, look, the way I look at last night's results is a sort of pathetic all the way around.

[00:45:49]

I mean, it's pathetic for Donald Trump, an incumbent president, to lose to Joe Biden, who's let's just say not at sort of the apex of his power and ability, who ran on very little other than like, I'm going to wear a mask and not tweet mean stuff. That's pathetic for an incumbent president to lose to such a lackluster message. And it's pathetic for Joe Biden to so radically underperform in key what Democrats have really taken for granted as this rising coalition of the ascendant that they thought was just going to be with them no matter what.

[00:46:19]

And the fact that he so radically underperformed with some of these communities is pathetic on their front. I really think a lot of the analysis after the fact is going to be, look, it was close because this is a very divided country and a very divided electorate and people are polarized. And it was what it was. I don't buy that for one second either. One of these candidates could have notched a landslide victory if they actually offered an affirmative, clear, positive economic agenda for the country.

[00:46:49]

And the fact of the matter is, neither one of them did on Joe Biden in the Latino vote. This is something we've been talking about on rising for months and months now. Even back during the Democratic primary campaign, we would talk to the Sanders campaign and their chief adviser, Chuck Roja, who really architected their strategy with the Latino community and said, look, it's not rocket science science here. First of all, you have to actually care and show up and spend the resources and start that conversation, something that the Biden campaign did not do.

[00:47:21]

And second of all, yeah, you're not going to get there just by throwing some diversity on the top of the ticket and thinking you can pander to identity and that that's going to be enough. The Sanders campaign was extraordinarily popular with Latinos because why they focus on bread and butter issues, health care, wages, jobs, edit landed. They invested the time and the money and not one person run. The Biden campaign bothered to reach out to Bernie World to say, hey, how'd you pull this off and how might we do this again?

[00:47:51]

It's no mystery here why it was white suburban voters who were most enthusiastic about Joe Biden and who will ultimately it looks likely to give him the presidency. It's because that's who they centered the entire campaign around this will restore the soul of the nation or whatever the very sort of generic messaging they were putting out here. Let's go back to normal. That was all aimed squarely at white suburbanites and it landed with the target population and ignored broad swaths of the country.

[00:48:19]

I mean, what we didn't see last night was a complete repudiation of the hideous, awful, bigoted, racist, xenophobic, sexist Trump. We did not see that. And that's even the Democrats that I was listening to last night were lamenting that, you know, I think Rachel Maddow is out there saying there's there's been no blue wave. There hasn't even been a ripple. And a lot of Democrats are upset because they wanted to see him done. They wanted to see the stiletto heels squishing him into the dirt.

[00:48:46]

And what we saw instead was he did incredibly well with Hispanics, improving his margins markedly from twenty sixteen.

[00:48:53]

He did well with the black voters. Charles Blow was tweeting a. Today, how black men are in greater and greater numbers voting for the Republican candidate. That was five percent for McCain, it was 11 percent for Romney, was 13 percent for Donald Trump, 16, 18 percent for Donald Trump in. Twenty eight going up after being told for four years that he hates black people, he loves white supremacists. He praised Klansmen. He, you know, like that.

[00:49:19]

And on and on it went the latest apology. Just show that with LGBT community to you, you got 20 percent of them, which is double what he got in 16. I mean, my take away from that is oh, by the way, Charles Blow, notwithstanding that 18 percent of the black men voted for Trump, his his take away last night was we are surrounded by racists. That's actually his takeaway to this morning. We are surrounded by racists.

[00:49:41]

So to me, you tell me, I think this this incessant, focused focus by the Democrats on identity and name calling and dismissal of anybody's personhood because they whatever you know, they said something about whatever issue that the Democrats didn't like. And in Trump, there's a long list.

[00:50:02]

It's done. It didn't work. It was rejected.

[00:50:05]

If I could just pick up on this point, because this is something I've been saying for a while. When Kamala Harris was put on the Democratic ticket, what did the media tell us? They said, oh, this is going to drive up the numbers with young voters and with minority voters in particular. Why not? Because of her policy stance is not because of what she might do as vice president, simply based on her identity. Now, not only was there zero basis for that belief, but there was actually negative evidence for that view.

[00:50:37]

You might recall Kamala Harris ran in the Democratic primary and she did not do particularly well with any of those demographics. That's why she wasn't the Democratic nominee. So I would be hopeful that somebody in the Democratic Party would look at this and say, look, these hollow identity politics divorced from any policy whatsoever. And what it means for your life is completely dead and broken. Do I think they're actually going to do that? No, I do not, because ultimately, look again and I don't want to I don't want to oversell Trump's performance or undersell Biden's.

[00:51:13]

Ultimately, I think Biden is going to be the next president. And weeks from now, Democrats are going to look at this and go, wow, that was nerve racking, but we got to win. So they're going to forget any potential lessons that they should learn here. But make no mistake, if you base the party just around college educated voters, this is a country where two thirds of Americans do not go to college. How are those numbers going to work out for you ultimately down the road if you allow this realignment to continue to occur?

[00:51:42]

And I also want to say there's nothing, as Democrats are learning, Republicans also need to keep in mind there is nothing set in stone about the way that these coalitions are moving or working class voters of all different races could come back home to the Democratic Party. They could continue to drift over to the Republican Party. This isn't static and it's not set and you can't take people for granted. To me, that is the bottom line above all else, sonographer Republicans out there who are feeling dejected that Trump may have lost this thing.

[00:52:15]

There is some good news when it comes to the Senate because we would have been looking at a very different landscape if the Democrats had won the Senate, the White House and increased their margin in the House. They actually that the Republicans increased their margin in the House, won yet another thing. The pollsters completely blew. And the Senate races are interesting to me, because if you look at the numbers that Republicans got killed on spending in the Senate races, the Democrats spent seven hundred and twenty six million bucks to the GOP's four hundred and twenty three million.

[00:52:46]

They they were projected, of course, to lose by all the know it all pollsters.

[00:52:52]

You look at some of the outstanding races this morning, Susan Collins in Maine, who everybody said was done. She's up fifty one to forty two percent over her, her challenger. And most prognosticators this morning are saying the Republicans are going to hold the Senate and we're going to have four years of divided government. So what does that look like?

[00:53:10]

It's incredible. I mean, Chuck Schumer, I don't even know how he must be feeling today. Just to give his perspective. They spent a collective two hundred million dollars to lose by a combined thirty five points to Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell. What kind of money allocation is that? It just goes to show how much dumb money chase dumb polling. I mean, we were told Jamie Harrison was tied with Lindsey Graham. He lost by 17 points. That's the exact same margin that the previous challenger to Lindsey Graham, who was a little known state senator, lost by.

[00:53:44]

That's just incredible. So one hundred million dollars basically made zero difference whatsoever. And it's the same story across the entire GOP Senate. Cal Cunningham underperforming relative to Tom DeLay. Thom Tillis actually outperform. President Trump in North Carolina, that is something nobody thought was going to nobody, Susan Collins is the same story. I mean, she was supposed to be dead. Woman walking and now it looks like she could be walking right into the chairman of the Appropriations Committee in the Senate.

[00:54:13]

It's, again, incredible to see, I think, that the winds in the Senate and the down ballot winds are just, again, this kind of dramatic realignment. I saw Hispanic these Hispanic districts and more pro GOP Hispanic voters and others winning all across the state of Texas in some of these House races. Will hard seat was picked up by a Republican that wasn't necessarily something that was in the cards. So overall, the down ballot story is just as interesting as the presidential race.

[00:54:43]

And if anything, the polling missed was even bigger this time around.

[00:54:47]

I saw you tweeting today about how wrong the pollsters got it. And you were just you sounded fired up about just just how how misled we were, you know, in Trafalgar.

[00:54:58]

Didn't get it all right, either. He thought Trump was going to win, but at least he had it more right in that he accounted for the shy Trump voter and tried to understand flyover country and Republican voters in a way it does not appear the mainstream pollsters did.

[00:55:13]

Yeah, I'm really furious about it. I mean, we place a significant amount of trust in these companies and in these pollsters and hundreds of millions of dollars the news organizations spent. And look, I mean, Wisconsin was supposedly told to us by ABC News was plus 17 points, 17 points. That's ludicrous. I mean, it's barely within a one point to twenty thousand vote margin, which is exactly what it was in twenty sixteen. Except this time around, it looks like Joe Biden is doing a little bit bit better.

[00:55:41]

And so in terms of the polling industry, I am just beginning and I said this today on our show, which is that I do not think it is possible in order to poll properly with a figure like Donald Trump. And I would conversely say somebody like Bernie Sanders, these people who just do not track onto the traditional political system, who excite various different types of voters, who are not necessarily Bakhtin, and that pollsters have actually gotten lucky just because of how standardized our politics have been over the last 30 years, and that when Trump came along, he realigned the parties.

[00:56:13]

But he also realigned the way that we're going to have to think about polling. I'm never going to look at it the same again after this election.

[00:56:19]

No, me neither. I mean, we we were we were told for so many years, trust the polls, trust the polls. And they did tend to be right. And then came Trump. And everything has changed. No one's figured out how to do it and now will be equally confused four years from now, because no matter what happens over the next few days about Trump v. Biden, Trump's not going to be on the ballot.

[00:56:38]

I don't think I guess if he loses if he officially loses this one, I suppose if you come back.

[00:56:47]

But anyway, we don't know how they're going to be able to pull future Republican candidates or whether the Democrats will just try to make every future Republican Trump member. They tried to tell us Mitt Romney was a sexist pig because he said binders full of women, which was just an attempt to say, I have binders full of resumes from women. And from that they spent a week saying he was a sexist jerk who couldn't be elected. All right. Let me ask you a quick question, though, because everyone who's been on the show is saying the same thing, which is it doesn't look good for Trump.

[00:57:16]

But I do want to spend just one minute on Michigan because it was weird because of Trump.

[00:57:21]

I think he looks good in Pennsylvania.

[00:57:23]

And if he could win Michigan and hold Georgia and Georgia, North Carolina, he could still win. And he looks good in North Carolina, too. So it's really to me, it's about Michigan and Pennsylvania. But Michigan, he was up in Michigan last night. He had two point two million and Joe Biden had one point nine nine million just rounding.

[00:57:44]

And then in an instant, all these new votes came in and Biden went up to two point one three million and Trump stayed exactly the same. So a bunch of new vote came in and every single vote went for Joe Biden. And it's not just a conspiracy theory with crazies on the right saying are legitimate, folks today are saying we need to ask him questions about how that happened.

[00:58:09]

Michigan is too important to ignore what we saw with the vote there.

[00:58:13]

Any thoughts on it? I mean, what we saw is Detroit coming in and coming in in a way that was overwhelmingly for Joe Biden and fairly consistent with past trends. So I didn't see anything suspect in the data that was coming in. And in fact, look, one of the things that we try to prepare people for on our show was specifically in the states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, that it was very likely because of the nature of how they cap, how they count their ballots, that you would see a very strong Trump early vote because those are the Election Day votes, which we knew in person was likely to be more GOP and that that would reverse over time as the mail in ballots were counted.

[00:58:53]

And that's exactly what we're seeing in Wisconsin, is what we're seeing in Michigan. And, you know, I'm not the the super number cruncher, but based on the analysis that I've seen, I actually think Biden is in fairly decent position to ultimately win Pennsylvania based on what is still out and what he's been performing in the mail in ballots so far. So we'll see on that one. But with Arizona in the bag, he ultimately doesn't have to get Pennsylvania.

[00:59:18]

And he's also got a good shot, even maybe perhaps favored in Georgia because of a significant chunk of the Atlanta vote is still out and still remains to be counted. So I think that's what the landscape looks like. And I didn't see anything suspect or suspicious in the way that the votes came in, ultimately.

[00:59:37]

Yeah, I think that's. So what do you think happens now, Saagar, what what what happens now if we if this week plays out and there's, you know, the legal challenges may go, but there's going to be some decisive information coming out of at least a couple of these states that should should tell us what's going on, what happens next.

[00:59:58]

I just saw the Biden campaign manager say that Jen O'Malley Dillon say that they expect to hear from the former vice president sometime later today and that they fully expect that he will be the clear winner as president by this afternoon. So that's what they're saying publicly. That's quite a declarative statement. Obviously, the Trump campaign is throwing some water on that. However, I would say there is no instant recount in Wisconsin as they are trying to claim here. It's essentially the same margin that Trump won last time around and there wasn't a recount then.

[01:00:29]

It's going to be the same story, I think, in Michigan and Pennsylvania. I think we're not going to know Pennsylvania for two days. But if Biden does begin to take the lead there in the mail, in ballots, and I do think it is game over in terms of an actual concession, I think we're probably a week or so away from that because there's going to be exhaustive Last-Minute efforts. And look, it's just true. Joe Biden did not run away with this election.

[01:00:53]

He put himself in a precarious situation. I don't doubt the Trump campaign. The GOP's going to fight like hell for it. But right now, I think they're the underdogs.

[01:01:02]

And Crystal, what happens as you as you cleverly phrased it, if if Joe Biden ascends to the the presidency while, quote, not at the apex of his of his power and ability, that's so gentle. You're very diplomatic.

[01:01:20]

What happens? I mean, I think a lot of us are looking at him thinking, can he do this?

[01:01:25]

See up to the job? Are we really about to swear in President Kamala Harris?

[01:01:31]

I mean, here's the reality, Megan. The Biden campaign promise next to nothing in this campaign. As I said, he promised to wear a mask, be Donald Trump, wear a mask and not send mean tweets. I think he will 100 percent be able to live up to those models. And look, a lot of analysis is like, oh, my God, this is so bad for Joe Biden that he's going to have a Republican Senate. Likely those are not certain yet, but looks likely that it will be a Republican Senate.

[01:01:58]

I don't see it that way. He ran on a pledge to not fundamentally transform anything. And now he's got the perfect excuse. The Republicans are keeping him, blocking him from being able to do anything of significance. And there's nothing Democrats love better than a good excuse for their utter impotence and inability to actually effect meaningful change. So I think it's a pretty good setup for him and a relatively depressing one for anyone who's looking for some significant reform wages lifted, better health care or any of the sort of, you know, the issues that really do unite Americans across partisan race and gender lines, geographic lines, education lines, et cetera.

[01:02:38]

Mm hmm.

[01:02:39]

Well, I'm sure a lot of Republicans just heaved a sigh of relief in response to utter impotence for the next four years. I'm sure they're not looking for big government action if Biden takes over you guys. Such thoughtful analysis. Love hearing from you. Thank you so much for coming on. Thanks, Megan. Our pleasure, Megan. Wow, what a situation.

[01:02:57]

Right? It's like we're going to have real answers soon, but we know a lot more right now than we did this time yesterday. And, you know, we're just trying to call it call straight for you. Not not putting a thumb on the scale, just trying to call it like we see it with the data coming in and assess what it means, assess what it means not just for, you know, the outcome, but for the country.

[01:03:18]

Right. I personally like divided government. I've always liked divided government. I think Americans like divided government. I think they usually correct it if it goes single party for too long, because you do see sweeping changes that can be a little scary. That's how we got Obamacare. People were like, whoa, what did we do? Wait a minute. They found all those Democrats out two years later and the Republicans took control and did some stuff. So we're going to know more.

[01:03:42]

But I just think. Hold on, because the thing I want I want to tell everybody today is the same thing I want to tell them four years ago. We're we're fine. No matter who actually won this, whether it's Biden or Trump, we're fine. If our our thankfully our lawmakers don't have that much power over us, they really don't. They definitely touch our lives in some ways. But I think more and more in this country, we are leaning toward private industry and toward individual responsibility and decision making.

[01:04:10]

And there's been a collective effort, at least on the right to squeeze government out of our lives as much as we could over the past 10, 15, 20 years. And, you know, you're responsible for you. There's very little that Joe Biden directly can do to affect your life. And same with Donald Trump. Now, we did see some things under Trump, of course, but the country's fight and will remain fine no matter what the final count.

[01:04:34]

The tally is on these votes. Look. One thing you might not be fine on just around back is your cybersecurity. Was that a smooth transition? No, I am still figuring it out. But I do want to tell you one more time before we go about Norton 360 with LifeLock, because, as they say, no one can prevent all cybercrime and identity theft or monitor every transaction at every business, but not Norton 360 with LifeLock is a powerful ally for your cyber security.

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And if you sign up today, you'll see 25 percent or more, 25 percent or more of your first year just by going to Congress. OK, that's 25 percent off. Norton 360 with LifeLock at Norton Dotcom again. We will be back later this week with more analysis and hopefully more results. Thanks for listening to the Megan Kelly show, no bias, no agenda and no fear. The Megan Kelly Show is a devil may care media production in collaboration with Red Seat Ventures.