A very good evening. The Republican primary in South Carolina is just four days away. Were the state's former governor, Nikki Haley, to win it, it would probably be the biggest upset since Buster Douglas duffed up Mike Tyson. It just ain't going to happen. The latest poll out today from USA Today puts her almost 30 points behind Donald Trump with an even slimmer chance ahead. Even if Haley reprised her modest success in New Hampshire, in every state that's voting over the next four weeks, Trump would still be over the threshold by March 19th, when the big states like Florida, Illinois, Ohio, hold their winner takes all primary. So this afternoon, speculation was growing that maybe a concession was in the offing, but not a bit of it.

I hear what the political class says, but I hear from the American people, too. That's why I refuse to quit. South Carolina will vote on Saturday, but on Sunday, I'll still be running for President. I'm not going anywhere.

In case you don't believe her, her team provided new details this afternoon about plans post-South Carolina. She's spending more than $500,000 on a new TV ad set to run in Michigan tomorrow. After Sunday, she has a travel schedule that takes in nine different states. The schedule includes at least 10 high-dollar private fundraising events. The truth is that in spite of it all, Nikki Haley is raising money at the fastest rate of her political career. Tara, what is going on?

Listen, the biggest gift for Nikki Haley is Donald Trump continuing to attack her, which his campaign continues to do. Given how far ahead he is, they should just be ignoring her and acting as though he is the nominee because I firmly believe that there is no path for Nikki Haley, and Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Now, what's fueling her is the fact that she's still able to raise money. Everyone knows that money is Gravely important in politics, and as long as there are donors out there willing to fund her, she will stay in this race and continue to troll Trump for as long as she possibly can. I think their calculus here is that something happens to him, whether it's through the court system or something between now and the convention, and she gathers delegates, even though she's not winning states, she's gathering some delegates, and they can make a move at the convention. This was what Ted Cruz tried to do last time around in 2016, and it failed miserably Probably for him. Ultimately, he acquiesced and supported Donald Trump, which I think is where Nikki Haley will end up in the end.

Yeah, let's pick up one thought on that, that something happens to him. Peter, let me put the calendar on the screen for people, and you'll understand what might be going on here. Obviously, we've got the South Carolina primary on Sunday, then Super Tuesday, fifth of March. Somewhere between that date and the Republican National Convention, which is the 15th, 18th of July, we may get, depending on the Supreme Court, we may get the start of the federal election interference case in Washington. Are they betting that at some point his presidency or his nomination becomes untenable in the course of that two or three months? He doesn't give her very much time.

I'm sure that's the bet. When you're that far behind in terms of the sheer numbers, all you've got to do is basically bank on something falling from the sky in those terms. I'm also interested. I We don't know what's inside Nikki Haley's head or why she's doing it, or will she eventually pivot and back Trump. But there are some people in the Republican Party who see this not just in the classic political terms of a race who's going to win, but something more important than that, whether we should actually, or whether they, rather, as a Republican Party, should push back against this almost cult which has taken over the party and has propelled this entirely unseetable, narcissistic semi-sociopath into power one time and could do it a second time where the results could be much, much worse. I think there might also be a bit of principle there that whilst there still is a hope of stopping this, if you're a member of the party and have been for a long time, then that's something you perhaps want to do, to try and almost take it back.

Tara, in practical terms, does it matter? I mean, he's co-opted the RNC. He's put his own people in charge of the committee. To all intents and purposes, he is the nominee. Most of Most of the senators, most of the House Republicans have come out in support of him. What does it unlock for him when it is decided?

That's really the big question everyone has here. What is the point of Nikki Haley staying in this other than to, for those of us who don't want to see Donald Trump win the presidency, is to weaken him in the general election, to give a permission structure to those softer Republicans who are uncomfortable with the path that the party has gone down supporting him in a cult-like fashion, a permission structure to vote for Democrats, to vote for Joe Biden or stay home, because the prospect of a second Donald Trump term is just unimaginable to many of us. Also, it has an impact on the United States around the world as well, as we see Donald Trump praising Putin and using the Navalny murder as a way to complain about his own situation in the US. I mean, it's him saying that he wouldn't support NATO. I mean, these are all things that are concerning not only at home, but also abroad. So what does it unlock For him, it really wouldn't be any different. He is basically, like I said, the proverbial nominee at this point, and he's raising money. The RNC has his people about to be, have his people there, and it's just going to be an extension of his campaign.

It really wouldn't change the calculus at all for him, other than that he can't help himself but to attack Nikki Haley because of his narcissism.

I suppose, though, Tara, if you were Nikki Haley and you wanted to cement in people's minds that you are the alternative, bowing out now just after New Hampshire, you perhaps bring in the rest of the field that were there back in Iowa, don't you? But if you stay in longer, all the way to July, August, you were the second candidate. You are the obvious pick. Is that somewhere in the calculus?

Perhaps. I think it's difficult because she does not have a coalition of other Republicans, major Republicans in the party who primary voters actually listen to backing her. The people who are backing her are few and far between, and they're not people who the primary voters, obviously by the polls that we see and how far behind she is, she only represents a small portion of the current Republican Party. She's mainly being boosted by independence, even in her own home state of South Carolina. It's independence and liberals who are supporting her that she thinks that maybe she has a shot at making a dent. It is a difficult road for her, and she constantly has to answer, What is your path? Why are you doing this? But when Donald Trump makes comments like he's made recently, particularly on foreign policy, which is an area of credibility for her as a former UN ambassador, it gives people hope that there's an alternative. But hope is not a strategy in politics.