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[00:00:00]

Foot clan, we're all kind of looking for a bright spot right now, are we not? Well, I got one for you. There's a hilarious new series on Apple TV Plus starring Jason Sudeikis called Ted LASO.

[00:00:12]

It's about an American football coach who heads to England to take a shot at managing one of the world's most competitive professional soccer teams.

[00:00:20]

It's an age old story, of course, if you like a show with big laughs and a lot of heart, then this is the one you've been looking for. Watch Ted LASO right now on the Apple TV app subscription required for Apple TV plus.

[00:00:36]

The time is coming swiftly. Rounds are now in place for the unscary, yet here you are unprepared for. This season, you'll find all kinds of. You know, to watch your drownded, crumble waist picks account to be rock ultimate drop kicked. A neuron that can bend to its will. And it does show how. It was weird that you would send your opponents back to the ship because you shall not pass on this chance to send your mates into the deep.

[00:01:25]

Flying fools to Oakham dropped kit dot com. Welcome to the Fantasy Football podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike, right. Welcome in. Thursday, August 27. The fantasy football podcast, back with you, Mike, the fantasy hit man, right, is here I am here, I cannot believe with his schedule. Yes. Our good friend that Gandalf I mean, Gandalf is pretty busy. Yes. Like you see the local wizard.

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Oh, is he? He might be someone's local wizard.

[00:02:29]

How dare you insult them and call him a local wizard? He's the world's wizard of a national Middle East regional. I mean, come on, man. Jason Moore is here. He's got magic. I am hyped. I'm excited for this show. It's got me going.

[00:02:44]

We have bus and values on today's episode of the podcast. And you can find us on Twitter at the footballers, the communities join the footy, you can get in on the global, you can find some foot clan leagues, you get an extra episode every week. Join the Footaction. And as our good friend Gandalf reminded you, ultimate Draugr Gay.com, if you want all the tiered rankings, if you want all of the Sleeper's breakouts, bus and values, consistency charts, 100 plus player profile videos, sometimes people message me on Twitter and they say my draft is tomorrow.

[00:03:27]

Do I have time to really get up to speed with the ultimate draft kit? And I think the answer is yes, because not only do you have time to cram, but there are tools for the active draft.

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You have the app and you can mark players as drafted. You have the printable cheat sheets that you can bring and give you an advantage at the draft.

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Yeah, I was going to say, I mean, it's it's nice to get early where you can do the prep and look at all of the stuff. But the truth is, if your draft is about two minutes from now, that's when that's when you're going to use it the most, as you know. Look at the tears, look at the rankings, the the cheat sheet. That's my number one two. So this weekend should be the biggest draft weekend of the year.

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It's possible. Yes, it is. What else is going on? You guys doing all right today?

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Yeah, I'm doing great.

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I think holding up I think we're going to have that is the best you can do in twenty twenty. Yeah. Hold on.

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Just hold on. Just hold on. I went. We've been very busy a lot of these days. We have multiple shows like today we're on Sirius XM later this afternoon. I haven't had a lot of time for chores around the house and it's been very, dare I say, warm in Arizona. Yo, that's fair. I walked around my back yard last night nude. No, no, no.

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I have my clothes on my back off. But thank you for adding some flavor to that story.

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It really seals it. But I'm telling you, like like at least a quarter of the plants in my yard are just dead. Oh, they gave up. They let go. I have a tree in my front yard that's just like I'm out of here.

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I mean, they're just crumbling into I mean, this is like the scene from is it Terminator? Oh, just blows through the fence. The dream. Oh yeah. I mean it's over. They gave up like we were supposed to get rain.

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We've had thirty four days so far this year with over one hundred and ten degrees.

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How do you know stats about that.

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Google. You were just Googling them. Yeah. On my screen. OK, I'm following I'm adding to your story about whether Callander professional over here.

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There are just plans that are have given up on any rain any more. So but I thought it was like a little bit of a metaphor for twenty, twenty years.

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We're just holding on the plans in the backyard or holding on old. We do have a season. And how many days away is the season now?

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Brooks think we're two weeks, two weeks away. Mm. Let's talk news.

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News& notes from around the league.

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All right, just after the show released yesterday, we had the startling news that David Montgomery was out for the season and it was it was rough.

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That's how it seemed a day after I forgave him for last year. Yeah.

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Rieper noncontact injury carted off. That was the initial thing said. And then it wasn't quite so true. He was able to limp off and then taken back on the car. And then it comes out that it was not his knee as it was first reported to my groin. He he hurt his groin. And thankfully, it does not appear to be a super long term injury. He's not going to miss this season. In fact, right now it's being reported two to four weeks.

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Do you ever hurt your groin? I have not. I have heard a groin area is unpleasant, uncomfortable. I think we have the audio from when that happened.

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There it is two to four weeks. He does have a chance of being available for the opener against the Lions. We will. We thought about what kind of analysis. We want to bring something to the table here, but we're still kind of learning what they're going to be doing depth chart wise, they don't have anything traditional behind David Montgomery in the running back room. You have to, Cohen. And that is the instant kind of fantasy football reaction is.

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But but the truth is, is Tarik Cohen has not been a very good runner for he's a satellite back, his exercise guy.

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He's like it's like Darren Sproles. Yeah. He'll get some carries, but you can't give Tarik Cohen to carry someone else has to step into that role. And right now, it seems like that's going to be Cordarrelle Patterson, who it was a wide receiver and is now converting to running back. But he's had great success in the rushing game. Will they add a veteran? I, I would put the probability as they will add somebody. Now, what happens with David Montgomery in the draft?

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We I'm citing that David Montgomery is going to be out for up to four weeks. On top of that, you have the real risk of re injury here. If he comes back too quickly just throughout the season, it is something you're going to have to worry about. So do you take the draft dip because he's not going to be won't be a fourth round pick anymore? A guy, if you're not even sure he's going to be ready for week one, he's going to drop down to what what would you guess, round three or maybe even eight if he has a chance for being available at the open?

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Look, today's show is values. I had a paragraph and a half written up on David Montgomery. He was my value pick coming into the show. He is not my value pick today. But when you have a player that has a high probability of two hundred and seventy five plus touches in an offense, has a chance of being back in week one. And you can get that in the sixth, seventh, eighth round, so you're you're going to buy the injury?

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I would consider it, yeah. I mean, because he could be back in week one and get two hundred seventy five carries this year. And that is a price that, you know, who are you grabbing in that realm.

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Right. Are you going to take carry on Johnson in your draft ahead of David Montgomery right now.

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That's that's a good name to throw out there, because obviously one is the presumed starter and one is the presumed 5050 guy in the backfield. And, you know, the thing with me is I have not been in on on David Montgomery. I just think his ceiling is basically a repeat of what we saw last year with, you know, an extra touchdown or two.

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That being said, if he does drop into the eighth, ninth round where I'm not relying on him as a starter at all, I'm just grabbing a guy for my bench.

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I don't think that, you know, I've got to I don't think you're going to find a better bench guy for depth.

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You know that in that part of the draft. Here's a great question for you.

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Are you taking David Montgomery if you're drafted today over Tarricone? Oh, that is a good question, because that realm of carry on Johnson, there's James White, there's only Michelle, there's Philip Lindsay, there's Tarik Cohen in that in that range because of where that is in in the the range of roster construction, I would probably take David Montgomery.

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I'm not relying unless I'm going zero RB. If I'm going zero RB, then I'm going to take the the pass catching higher up side. I'm going to need this guy to start for my team. This might be one of my first two running backs I'm selecting, in which case I'd go. Tarik Cohen. Otherwise, the way that I construct my roster, I would I would be taking David Montgomery in that range. All right, we'll keep you up to date on whether the bears add another body, they have Ryan Knoll as well with his career of two carries for eight yards on the on the depth chart.

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All right. Joe Mixon has not been at practice.

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The report this morning was that is due to migraines. Now, Melvin Ingram on Hard Knocks has set a precedent for what we might start seeing, which is the hold in, not the hold out. And you've had doubts about Dalvin Cook coming to the surface. Oh, Dalvin Cook. You know, Adam Schefter came out and talked about oh if he doesn't have a new contract I'd be worried about Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, another player that's been pining for a new contract.

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Some concerns about a hold in. But now this report of migraines, so do you believe that I mean, is this a situation that you're just monitoring?

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You can't really make any distinct call on whether he has migraines, whether he is, you know, doing this as, you know, contract negotiation, you know, peace. What you do need to be aware of is that he is in a contract year, does want to have a bigger contract than there is at least some risk of that boiling over. I don't expect him to miss any games. But, you know, when you're on the clock and you're drafting in that round in that range and you're looking at Joe Mixon or someone else, you at least need to be aware of it when you make your decision now.

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And he's one of your my guys. Does it give you any pause when you're on the clock? You know, we just had our family league, right. And you went back to back my guys with Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon. Is there any chance you would not have taken Joe Mixon if this was an important league to you? That was starting today with these conversation pieces until the migraine report from NFL Network came through this morning? It terrified me like the fires of Mordor.

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Mm.

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Hey, I mean, it's it's not something you want to hear. I was going to ask you the question. Do you think he will consider, you know, me in this whole equation through the way I went out on a limb for Joe Mixon? Do you think that I will be part of the bridge to a new contract? Thoughts? I'm from Cincinnati. Like, well, we weren't going to do it. And we heard the confidence well, the my guy thing and I'm not taking him back again.

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So, yeah, I think you I think you are the glue in this situation here. And so you you should give confidence to draft him.

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It's not a good rieper day for me. No.

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Well, they've already offered argue it's a really good rieper day for you. For it just a matter of tomatoes is a strong point. I don't think Joe Mixon is going to miss games.

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Yeah, well, that's good, Mike, thank you. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll.

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Said he he had seen Adam Gase talking about Frank Gore and he said, I can I can do that.

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Pete Carroll says Carlos Hyde will quote. Be a big factor for us. Yes, I've I've heard Pete Carroll talk about. His players before and here's what they are, they're incredible, they are in great shape, they're ahead of schedule, they're going to be a giant piece of every play.

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Yeah, but ahead of schedule. So that's a comment in the favor of Chris Carson. But then Carlos Hyde in a big factor, being a big factor for us is against Chris Carson.

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So do they cancel out all Pete Carroll comments? Cancel each other out? All of them? Yes. You just there are certain coaches. You just here's here's the actual truth. When Pete Carroll says something negative about a player, that's when the alarm you that's when you go, OK, that's a problem.

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Different angle, though. Two hundred and sixty one opportunities for Carlos Hyde last year. Here's the thing, though. It's a big opportunity to me is he will be on the field. He can't say he's going to get touches because Rashaad Penny was a factor as well. Now, for fantasy purposes, Carlos is going to have ten opportunities a week, which is more a thorn in the butt cheeks. If you are rostering Chris Carson and not so much a you could play Carlos Hyde unless he happens to get, you know, the ten carries for 40 yards and the touchdown.

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And then so I'm not drafting Carlos Hyde, but he is. He's the backup, he is the backup, if you are trying to you know, if you want to lock up the entire Seattle backfield, it's I don't just but maybe someone out there does it. It's going to be colossi. This this, to me is more of a indictment of Rashaad. Penny is is not ready to go. And we don't know when he's going to be ready to go.

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We don't know if we've considered it, we need a thorn in the butt cheeks episode. OK, yeah, because there are I mean, there are a number of places that exist only to bring you pain. Yeah. They're not going to provide anything good for your fantasy, but they're going to ruin. I mean, one of the reasons why they're always in the backyard, the void that the thorn in the butt cheeks. Yeah. You don't want that.

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You never backed into a rose garden. Oh, back.

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Back to.

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McRoy Oh, it's just going great, let's compound that Jordan Love has quote yet to provide even a glimpse of why the Packers traded up to him.

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That is the camp report from the athletics match Schneiderman. Now, here's the thing, of course, is accuracy issues. This quote was actually from Aaron Rodgers.

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Oh, yeah. Oh, that would be great.

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Quarterbacks take a long time, print it, you know, to to develop in certain situations. And the glimpse for why they drafted him could be, you know, down the road a year or two down the road. But why they traded up to draft a guy no one was clamoring for makes no sense.

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I guess I could have saved that piece of news for once we start the bus segment.

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Maybe, maybe, maybe we'll give it a year or two. Yeah, but initial reports, Aaron Rodgers not being threatened by Jordan led loves progress. All right. That is it for news.

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Not unless Brooks has something for us. Brooks, do you have anything breaking? Nope. This is the time of year. You got to pay attention to that.

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Even while we're recording so well, we've got a breaking news drop. We're we're we're equipped. All right.

[00:18:01]

We're going to talk about busts and values. Before we do that, I want to thank today's sponsor, Navy Federal Credit Union. If you're looking for ways to save more each month, look no further. They offer their members great ways to lower their interest rates and save more. One easy option, transferring your credit card balance to a Navy federal platinum credit card and saving with a low interest apre. That's a smart thing that you can do member save more when they refinance with Navy Federal.

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[00:19:08]

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[00:19:12]

And ladies and gentlemen, fantasy football time means that you need to get your fantasy football hardware. You got to get the trophies, you got to get the rings. Well, guess what? You can get both of those right now and save quite a bit of K'iche fantasy champs dotcom. That is our go to source for for the hardware so that we can make sure everyone else knows that they are a loser and we are the fantasy champs. And right now, if you buy a trophy or a belt, you can get a free fifty nine dollars championship.

[00:19:45]

Ring it look. You want the ring, you want the trophy. You can't decide why not get both. Use the code free ring. If you buy a trophy or a belt, get that free fifty nine dollars championship ring fantasy stamps.com use the code free ring. Get ready to talk some busts.

[00:20:04]

Oh I think so.

[00:20:08]

Buzz. All right, but some values on today's show, we had an early bust episode back in June. I'm going to bring those names up again, see if you are still on board, and then we'll bring you a new name today. Mike, back in the middle of June, you said Stefon Diggs. You think he could be a bust for fantasy football players. Are you still on board at that take? I am still on board with the take that Stefon Diggs is going to be he will still be hot and cold.

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I think it will be even more extreme with Josh Allen instead of Kirk Cousins. The the where he's being drafted has altered me, me saying, you know, just banging the table, saying I'm never drafting Stefon Diggs. But he is a guy that used to play. I as much as I love Stefon Diggs, I don't want to draft him on my fantasy team this year.

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All right, Jason, you know, part of this show we said we're stay in water. Yeah, Jason. And we don't just bring you the analytical, we bring you the holistic view.

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You said Austin Ekeler in middle of June was a now, is that awesome, Ekler or Austin? Excellent.

[00:21:22]

I don't I don't remember which had some excellent, awesome, excellent just superlatives. But are you still on board with Ekler being a potential bust for fantasy football players?

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So when I said that he was being drafted as a running back one in June, he was near that, you know, early second round pick.

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He's dropped quite a bit by Mike or by other people know by ADP. But he's he's dropped quite a bit. And now he's according to what I'm looking at, the twenty fourth player off the board. He's at that two, three turn.

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Man, I have a hard time. That's the life. I would not label him a bust there. I do. My point in that was that I think you're going to see a major downturn in his receptions and that's where his real fantasy value came from. I stick to that. But if he's being drafted outside the top twelve running backs, he should he should return on that. So he, in essence, should not avoid Pike River because that provided him with the volume in the passing.

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Oh yeah, if you're past sketching, running back, that's a delight. Get your trunks. We will talk about that later. I brought up Tyler Boyd at the time in June. I have no different feelings about Tyler Boyd. OK, there's just a lot of sketching options there. Ed Green, mercifully back at practice, Tee Higgins showing out. You've got John Ross involved. Tyler Boyd's very reliable. I just don't get excited about him in drafts.

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I haven't really I know I haven't taken him anywhere, so. Just kind of on Tyler Point, I think is a reliable number two receiver. Yeah, I mean, the team like a right number two on an NFL team. Yeah.

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The reality is he had so many targets last year and was OK. I mean, if that's his, you know, if he's just OK when you have that level of volume and now the volume goes away, he's not someone I'm excited to have.

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I wouldn't imagine drafting. All right.

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I'm going to let Jason kick off our bus picks on today's show because his is a perfect transition from the news that there has been a lot of talk in Jets camp. So I'll let you have the floor.

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All right. My best candidate for 2020 is Le'Veon Bell. And last year he was the running back seven, which was, you know, in and of itself a bust from where he was being drafted. But nowhere to go but up.

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Right lateral, I think.

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And down you go down. Just nowhere to go. I think we have a No.

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Two problem of No. Two. But here's the thing.

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I'm not just talking about Mr. Hall, Adam Gase. I'm talking about the number two running back on the team is a problem. Last year, Bilal Powell was the number two running back in carries. He had fifty nine total carries on the season. But wait, Powell had nineteen carries in week fourteen when Le'Veon Bell wasn't there. So when Le'Veon Bell was out, there were forty total carries on the season that went to the backup level.

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Got everything you know outside of Christian McCaffrey. Le'Veon Bell was pretty much the next most used guy. And if you remember on our recent My Guys episode, which if you haven't listened to, please go back. It was excellent. I talked about how that's what the people are saying. That is because the people are smart, the people. It was an excellent show. It was it was an awesome show. Still is.

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But you'll remember when I was talking about as well in twenty seventeen, an awesome Kenyan, Drake was on pace for over fifteen hundred yards in the final nine games and then Adam case brought in a thirty five year old old school type, a running back Frank Gore and he gave them a hundred and fifty six carries. Now you might think well yeah. One hundred fifty six carries in twenty eighteen. I should leave that.

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You weren't wrong about his age at the time. I know right. You just said that in the very first thing I did was did Jason write down Frank Gore's current age. That's what I thought you did. No, no, that's thirty seven.

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I brought in a thirty five year old Frank Gore gave one hundred fifty six carries. No, you say. Well, that's old school. Frank Gore. He's he's past this time last year. I don't know if you know this. He had ten more kids. He had one hundred and sixty six carries last season. What is infinite. But the thing is he's eternal. He is all he I Adam Gase realizes now that Frank Gore's past, his prime, he's old.

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He's busted. Well, wait, what's that? We have audio from literally yesterday. This is Adam. Let's hear what Adam Gates had to say yesterday on Frank.

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Gore looks the same as you did twelve years ago. It's I can't explain it. It's unbelievable how. When I watch him, I'm in a flashback to 2008. He looks the same. I don't I don't know how. It doesn't make sense. But Frank has been one that refuses to listen to what anybody else says. And he goes out. There is a old school football player and he looks good, looks good. His vision is never going to change.

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He's just that's it's going to be like that when he's 60. And Frank, is Frank special? I mean, there's a reason why he is there an all time emotion that's not a guy.

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You already heard that clip. And I hit me fresh today. I heard that yesterday. It's he's just as insane today.

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He's not getting 40 carries like Bilal Powell got over the course of the season. When love is out there and the narrative is, well, if Love Bill has, you know, enough workload, just volume, he gets a thousand on the ground, 500 through the air. He's he's going to be a top 15 back. There's just no other way.

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But I mean, he didn't do it last year. He didn't even have eight hundred rushing yards last year.

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Well, he was three point to a carry. So I just think Love Bell is not someone I want on my roster. But I want to make this distinct point, because if you look at where he's being drafted right now, he is actually being drafted. After I have him ranked in my running back rankings. I have him ranked, I think, running back 18 or 19 right now. He's being drafted as like the running back twenty. Once he said, well, how could that be a bust?

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Here's how that could be a bust for fantasy. Right now, he is being sandwiched in between two my guys in the draft. You can grab Cooper Kupp and Tyler Lockett right where Le'Veon Bell is going. If Le'Veon Bell is the running back twenty and beats his ADP, he is not going to really help your team the way you need him to. So to me, I can't imagine taking Love Bell this year. I am concerned.

[00:28:20]

I know the argument. I will say this argument for that Bell's been about improved efficiency, improved defensive line, improved pass catching and the touchdown totals. Other than Leonard Fournette, he was the most anomalous in terms of opportunities to touchdowns. Those things can fill in the gap to maybe get back to last year better. I'm concerned because Le'Veon Bell's posting about this. I'm I'm not concerned about a beholds press conference the first time ever. I never said that before.

[00:28:52]

I'm concerned about and the story for Frank or last year was he actually started the year he had he had three finishes inside the top twenty four to start the year with high volume in Buffalo. He basically disappeared over the back half of the year, which is something that we've seen happen time and time and time and time again with older running backs. You fade in the second half. That could happen to but left Belles posting about this. You have this tension, this ribbon of tension in Jets camp for two years.

[00:29:23]

I didn't really want him here. That's what Adam Gase began this whole journey, paying more money than anybody. I didn't really want him here. Then I give him all this work and he's not that good. Then it's, oh, we're just giving him a little rest and then leave bells coming out yesterday and saying, boy, I'm I'm twiddling my thumbs. I don't really know what I'm going to be doing. I don't know why I'm on the sideline.

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I'm used to vroom vroom and you know that he say I'm no use.

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And he used emojis to show, like, the running man with a couple of smoke coming behind him.

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This is what I'm used to, the vroom vroom. He's not happy. He'll get the work. He is in his room. I'm him down. I mean, I was an advocate for him two weeks ago. We are paying attention to camp. He's been moved down in my rankings. He's not in my top ten, not in my top twelve. I still think like I said, I made the arguments at the beginning. I think there's an opportunity.

[00:30:22]

But I don't blame you one bit for putting him in as your bust. All right. I didn't like that quote, I I'm going to jump in here and this is dicey. This is dangerous and. I'll just I'll get it off my chest. Look, my fantasy bust keyword being fantasy is wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals, DeAndre Hopkins.

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Well, OK, let me start let me start here. He is elite. He's. Thank you. That's all that's how I feel. All right, let me cover my shirt. This is how I feel, having to bare my soul to the fantasy community, put myself out there, because this is not this is not an easy man to take a fantasy stand against. He is elite. He is one of the top three wide receivers in the NFL.

[00:31:19]

He's still going to be good for fantasy. And he's on our team and he's on my favorite team. Why? He's being drafted as the fifth overall wide receiver off the board.

[00:31:33]

That's the problem for Hopkins. Over the last five years, top five wide receivers have averaged one hundred and fifty six targets. That's that's the volume on average that you have to get. Now, some guys don't do that because they have like the huge touchdown year last year. Hopkins had one hundred and fifty targets. He barely snuck into the top five. And games played last year with Deshaun Watson, the quarterback who he's played with for years and years now, he was pulling in thirty one percent of the targets while he was on the field.

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That was the second highest number behind only Michael Thomas. Last year on the Arizona Cardinals, Christian Kirk had the highest target share when he was on the field. Christian Kirk came in at twenty four percent of the targets. That is a very large gap to go from the number one guy getting twenty four percent all the way up to thirty one percent through the first five weeks. Arizona was running the actual error rate system that Cliff Kingsbury wants to run before the personnel kind of crapped out and Cliff realized he couldn't do that.

[00:32:40]

But for through the first five weeks, over 50 percent of the plays for different wide receivers were on the field. Now, if you want some context for how insane that number is. Through that same time period, Washington was second in using four wide receivers on the on the field, the same time, 11 percent people don't use this. This was this is why people were so excited for Cliff bringing in the air raid system. What's it going to do?

[00:33:07]

How will it work out in the NFL? And an elite wide receivers, we've seen them change teams a few times, and it's just been such a poor hit rate for people going all in on fantasy, on someone changing teams, the offense just spreads the ball out too much for me to to truly believe and project that Hopkins will be in that one hundred and fifty six target, bringing in Drake, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, Dan Arnold, Andy Isobella, Hakeem Butler, Keyshawn Johnson.

[00:33:36]

Right. And I mean, I don't want to get into a whole bunch of math, but you can break down the numbers of 70 percent of the targets went to wide receivers for Arizona, which is by far the most in the league.

[00:33:48]

But still, when you break down the targets and you try to give DeAndre Hopkins the one hundred and fifty five, one hundred fifty six targets, it leaves absolutely nothing for Larry and Chris who are going to get targeted.

[00:34:03]

Can I ask you a question? Yes, because I feel like, you know, sometimes people know we're from Arizona. They know where Cardinal fans sometimes we get accused for oh, you call them for the breakout or there's going to be good. That's because you're a hometown fan. I feel like we've been in a different bubble with the DeAndre Hopkins draft price. It's been in the like I don't even we haven't been in anywhere where we're drafting him in that one receiver, five range.

[00:34:30]

But when you make this argument, how do you see it playing out? Because he's in a lead Hall of Fame caliber wide receiver. Do you see it playing out in terms of purely consistency issues in Arizona where Hopkins is? I don't think any of us would deny going to have monstrous game.

[00:34:47]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I'm starting this argument with he is elite. He's going to be great for fantasy. But if you're drafting him as the wide receiver five, I don't think you're going to I don't think you're going to get the the level of consistency that you want from the wide receiver.

[00:35:01]

Five, I don't think you're going to get the Final Fantasy finish that you want when you're drafting a guy who's the wide receiver.

[00:35:06]

Five, he should still I have him outside of my top ten in my projections. But that's like by a just a small margin of points. I expect him to be a wide receiver one. But when you draft the guy at wide receiver five and you're in, he ends up in the ten to twelve range. It's disappointing.

[00:35:25]

Yeah, I have him as my wide receiver. Five. My projections are you've been in that camp. I think the pace of play is so much faster for Arizona and the total volume, he won't need to hit thirty percent of target market share in order to have targets like he's seen back in Houston. They didn't throw the ball as much as Arizona does. So I actually do think he has a good season. But I still wouldn't draft him at five because when I'm in those first two rounds and I'm looking at I mean, I've said this before in those rounds, I am risk adverse because everybody's great.

[00:35:58]

Everybody's seeling in the first two rounds is the oh, maybe they could be the number one at their position. Hopkins maybe he could.

[00:36:04]

But changing teams and all the variables that are here say that there's a larger percentage chance that I'm wrong on my projection. Then I like to have when I, you know, take a look, invest that kind of capital.

[00:36:21]

Yeah, he may have more of an impact to an offense. He may be number one in football on moving to Arizona and the impact he has on that offense. But that might not translate to fantasy. You talk about risk aversion. My bus pick. Juju Smith Schuster is being drafted ahead of more, he's being drafted ahead of AJ Brown, he's being drafted ahead of Cooper. Kupp is being drafted ahead of Calvin Ridley.

[00:36:44]

The metaphor that I have in my mind for Juju Smith Schuster, you know how when they release a new television show, they like to have it be right around the biggest hit on the network at that prime time slot? Yeah, yeah. So they can pick up right afterwards, right after friends. That was the magic slot. Looked at primetime at primetime show was Antonio Brown. That debut show was Juju Smith Schuster and it came on right after.

[00:37:08]

And man, it had a great first season.

[00:37:10]

First two seasons. Yeah. First two, even better, even better second season. But you have now removed that that that benefit of the doubt that and he still riding the coattails of that number one hit and. The price that you're paying in fantasy drafts is a result of still thinking about that sophomore season that he had and then a tendency for us to want to forgive, throw away last season in its entirety. It's hard not to. Well, it was trash and you the things you do with the trash, you throw it away.

[00:37:47]

Yeah, the types of targets that they were getting in Pittsburgh from the variety of Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph, they weren't very good targets. But it's 20, 20 guys we have the technology to look at.

[00:38:02]

I don't think I said that word very.

[00:38:06]

We've got it. We can go look and see. Was he really bad, uncatchable targets last year? And the answer is yes. He was really bad. He was 58 and football in terms of catch rate on actual catchable targets when his own teammate, Deontae Johnson was 16th in football at the exact same yards per target, these were the same types of targets. And Juju was actually worse. He was he actually took a step back. I don't think you're going to get what you got in that sophomore year ever again.

[00:38:42]

And one thing that I haven't brought up very much or we haven't talked about in the context of Juju is this is a contract season for Juju Smith. Schuster, there was preseason discussion already about this team's not going to extend Juju. They go out. What do they do? We say pay attention to what the team does. They go chase Claypole in the draft. The argument for Joujou is, well, maybe that volume from the Abbey years goes down, but maybe the touchdowns come up.

[00:39:09]

Chase Claypool's, kind of a big guy. They brought in Eric Ebron, a red zone. Monster variables around Big Ben. Yes, he may be back. He may be the same Big Ben. Maybe he's not. Maybe he is. But the volume isn't there because this defense is so exceptional. They still have Deontay Johnson and James Washington and other weapons in this offense. So, again, all busts are in the context of what it costs you in the draft to acquire the player.

[00:39:35]

I am always shocked at where Juju is going. I have no other explanation for it. Then it is riding the coattails of these great seasons gone by and throwing out last year. I'm not willing to do it. I want AJ, I want AJ Brown.

[00:39:49]

I want more. I want Cooper Kupp. I want Calvin Ridley. So I'm not going to take to do that in the third round.

[00:39:57]

Yeah it's, it's upsetting because I do believe he is whole segment is upset. I know. Why do we are so sad. I do know who is exceptionally talented and while there's been reports out of camp that I was going to say that's the one thing I haven't mentioned. Yeah. That you know, he had an exceptional camp last year and has disappeared this year. He's nowhere to be found. Maybe then we get the reverse season.

[00:40:20]

Well, let me ask you a great oh.

[00:40:23]

That you just said that the key to a great season is a bad camp. Is that what I just heard, Juju?

[00:40:28]

I will say the way I read into that report this morning of from the athletic saying, you know, it's hard to find his reps are limited. I think they're trying to keep their number one wide receiver from being hurt. And do you think they resign him, though? Because the money that Juju will want, being the age that Juju is, it doesn't seem compatible with the Steelers like historical philosophy on signing players.

[00:40:52]

I mean, to some beat reporter, some beats, some beat.

[00:40:59]

I've listened to beat reporters talk about how they think that there is a a decent chance that they end up franchise tagging Juju. OK, yeah, I would say it comes down to does Juju have a good year? Does he have a good year? And I fully believe that Juju Smith Schuster can. And just a reminder to to last year on top of the quarterback problems, Juju did, have he hurt his foot and it's no injuries. It's always funny to say, well, guy had a toe injury, but if you've ever had a toe injury and then tried to run, when did he get the toe injury, Mike?

[00:41:36]

Week one. That is correct. So he was hurt right away. Then he had the knee sprain in the concussion towards the end of the year. It was just that's what I'm saying. It was a trash year for everyone in Pittsburgh. And you just you're crumpling it up. I'm forgetting that it ever happened and I'm moving forward.

[00:41:55]

All right. I have two final questions on this for you, Andy. Last year in the Sleeper Ball League with Juju, did we draft Juju in the first round? To troll Joujou, yes, the answer I'm sorry, I missed because of all the extra words, did we draft him in the first round? Yes. And did we win the championship? Yes, we did. Oh, well, I don't like your point is. So you heard it here.

[00:42:23]

First bad camp, first round pick. That's what I've got from Jason. There's a reason we didn't just do bus on this show. We don't want to bring it all down to a screeching halt. We want to bring you something a little bit more valuable, more upbeat.

[00:42:41]

Values, our early values show, I'll make it quick back in June, Mike, you said Deshawn Jackson. Is he still a value to you? One hundred percent, Jason, you said Robert Woods.

[00:42:54]

Is he still a value to you? 100 percent. He he was almost going to be my value for this show, OK? He's always right. You want to know who's going to be value next year? Robert Woods.

[00:43:05]

I said Ronald Jones back in June. I completely believe Ronald Jones is a value, maybe even more so now. Today, we're bringing you one more value. Pick each. I'll just get mine out of the way here. Yep. He's being drafted as the running back 56. Oh, don't be so close, late 13th round. And it's Naim Hynes of the Indianapolis Colts. You can go back, you can play my audio clips on the breakout show, which I think was, what, Monday when he talked about the value of Philip Rivers is your quarterback.

[00:43:41]

If you are a running back that can catch the football, if you're even capable, you're going to get it. Doesn't matter if you're capable. The ball is coming your way as a running back because when it's almost like a yeah, and then it's out of his hands towards the running back. The most checkdown completions in the NFL since twenty seventeen. No. One, Philip Rivers, one hundred twenty four checkdown completions since twenty seventeen, that is what he likes to do.

[00:44:07]

He likes to take what the defense gives you most often the defense is going to give you some opportunities underneath. And we have all the debates and the merits of is it going to be Marlon Mack for the first part of the year, is going to be Jonathan Taylor. These guys are going to split some careers. Look, regardless of who gets the first and second down work, there's going to be a ton of name Hynde's. I truly believe it.

[00:44:30]

He graded out as one of the better, most efficient pass blockers at the running back position. Kind of important when you're a third down bat. Kind of important when you have Philip Rivers and his two feet in the cement. And he's he's great, he's a speed demon, he's ninety nine percentile for three eight, give him the ball in some really I don't.

[00:44:51]

He's fast, fast and he fits that Philip Rivers mold we just talked about awesome ekler.

[00:44:57]

And all the camp reports on name Hynde's is that he is not just a little bit part of the mix, he's essential. He's essential to this team. Marlon Mack Pass Catching Wise. He's never done it. Jonathan Taylor at a minimal inexperience in the NFL in that type of role. I think you're going to have just the dynamic weapon in the backfield. A name Hines throughout the season, high volume situation. Sigmon Bloom came out and he tweeted a quote that came from the athletic.

[00:45:25]

Those watching Colts camp says, it's been two straight weeks. A Colts camp. Hines has been everywhere. He said he's never seen Hines more active in this offense, maybe talk of him having seventy five catches, isn't that insane? That's the Austin Ekeler recipe. So and Ekler was like a six round pick last year where we kind of said, OK, this could be a big year. Mike was super in on him credit to Mike, saw it from from the outset.

[00:45:52]

And Hynde's is not going to have a lot of first and second down work. Ekler had that to open the year. You don't expect that kind of a year, but RB fifty six, a free player at the back of your draft?

[00:46:03]

Yeah, they're in a full PPR league. He's he's a really safe late guy that you can just watch the screen and get to go point. Yeah. So I really like him.

[00:46:12]

I think he's a great value in draft. He's somebody I'm going to be trying to pick up.

[00:46:16]

Here's a player I have been getting often in drafts. I find, you know, when it when it comes to the Robert Woods types, this is someone who's just undervalued. And Mike just brought him up on the fantasy time machine we should talk about last week, though. But the point is, you brought him up as a Calvin Ridley possible breakout. I'm saying that without that breakout happening, Michael Gallop is still a value. He is a value for where he is being drafted.

[00:46:41]

Right now. He's the wide receiver. Thirty one. And last year he was the wide receiver. Twenty two and fourteen games.

[00:46:47]

So I have a game to play. I want to play the game. Gentleman who had more fantasy points per game, Michael Gallop or second year breakout, Calvin Ridley. Michael Gallop, yeah, that is correct. OK, on other so you're all done with this game, is this is this really a game or is this just you're highlighting Michael Gallup had more points than all of these players that you're going to bring up.

[00:47:23]

We're going to find out. That's the game. Who had more fantasy points, Jason always wins on a per game basis last year, Michael Gallop or second year breakout wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Oh, well, let's let's go with Michael Gallup. Yeah, that is correct. OK. All right. Let's get a little harder now. How about Michael Gallup versus D.J. Chark, who had more fantasy points per game last year? Michael Gallup.

[00:47:50]

That is correct. And the final one, D.J., more superstar wide receiver to break out, who also missed games, who had more fantasy points per game, did more. Michael Gallop hits. Michael Gallop answered before.

[00:48:03]

You don't feel good about myself when I was also 30 because more technically played in his final game where he got knocked out on the first play.

[00:48:12]

But my point also dirty because I brought this up before Michael Gallop at a three touchdown week 17.

[00:48:17]

That didn't matter for 17 out take weeks.

[00:48:20]

If he had two touchdowns on the year through through week 16, he was the wide receiver thirty. And that was while missing two games. He's being drafted after that. My point is he's of value. And and the reason he's of value is KD Lamb. KD Lamb is coming in and everybody is worried that the gallops not going to be able to repeat. The truth is KD Lamb could make this offense better and be a good thing for Michael Gallop.

[00:48:47]

Randall Cobb left and he had eighty three targets as a starter. Now Cedi Lamb comes into that role. Here are some rookies who had around eighty three targets. Tyreek Hill's rookie year eighty three targets D.J Moore's rookie year eighty two targets. AJ Brown last year Supastar eighty four targets Juju Smith Schuster is great rookie year seventy nine targets Allen Robinson eighty one or Dez Bryant the man. He's kind of where in the number right had seventy three targets. Cedi Lamb is going to come in and have about the same targets that left from Randall Cobb.

[00:49:22]

Michael Gallop last year was the wide receiver.

[00:49:25]

Twenty two in fourteen games and he's being drafted where I, I, I take him almost every time I'm on the clock where he's fallen to.

[00:49:34]

I'm not, I'm never reaching for Gallop. I'm not trying to say that he's a guaranteed top fifteen wide receiver, but this is about where can you get value. And the last point I want to make before and he's grimacing faces get in here is this. When I was thinking about what type of player I want to value in fantasy football, Julian Edelman is a value.

[00:49:54]

Yes, he's being drafted way, way later than he will finish. But the thing is, is he's not going to finish as good as he did last year. And he doesn't have this he doesn't have this ability or some some thing that could happen on the field that will take him to the next level. Whereas Michael Gallop, what I'm talking about as of as just a gentle value, he's going to return more than you draft among not the gentle value.

[00:50:19]

I like you like he's it's just not a breakout.

[00:50:23]

You see, it's a it's a God as harsh a gentle Virginia, not an aggressive a slight value.

[00:50:29]

You're going to get a quality wide receiver above thirty one, above thirty one.

[00:50:33]

But that is his floor and he has ways to break it. He's coming into his third year.

[00:50:41]

The touchdown for the touchdowns are the most significant one. Yeah. Touchdowns go up two touchdowns in 16 weeks. Fifteen gets injured again.

[00:50:49]

I mean, there's, there are so many ways where he could be much better than a gentle value.

[00:50:54]

OK, and as a gentle value, though, are you willing to put Michael Galab into your lineup instantaneously? Is it your wide receiver? Two with no discomfort.

[00:51:03]

I will start him week one as my wide receiver, two with zero discomfort. All right, and then I guess because gentle, I mean, yes, exactly. Usually when things are gentle, there's no there's a lot of comfort. Yeah.

[00:51:16]

Now you said weeks one through 16 is the wide receiver 30 last series being drafted at 30 while missing two games.

[00:51:22]

Yes. OK, all right. I'm going to bring up a quarterback here. I think he is a tremendous value quarterback at the end of drafts. Let's say you are playing the late round quarterback game and other guys, just like I was going to target Cam Newton was going to target these other players. And then he seems like your plan has has gone to pieces. It's just left in shambles. Fear not, my friends, because Jared Goff, the quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams, he is still there.

[00:51:52]

He is a value. He is being drafted as the 19th quarterback off the board. His first two years with McVay, he averaged these are his averages, over a 63 percent completion passer, over forty two hundred yards, thirty touchdowns. And he averaged those touchdowns with a five point eight touchdown.

[00:52:14]

First, Jared Keith Jarrett Guriev announcing the five point eight touchdown percent, which is a completely it's repeatable for the Sean McVay system and Jared Goff. Last year, he still had the yards. Forty six hundred yards. What are the like? They're throwing the ball an absolute ton, but you saw the touchdown rate drop from that average of five point eight percent down to three and a half percent. He only threw twenty two touchdowns. And that was the difference between Jared Goff being just outside of the QB one range and the difference between him being a weekly starter that you are very happy about.

[00:52:58]

If you give him simply the league average of throwing a touchdown on every four and a half percent of your attempts. That puts him at twenty eight touchdowns that would have been the QB six on the year. So that's how close Jared Goff was. You just him playing average with the volume, the yards and the touchdown call just average. He would have jumped up to the QB six had he been able to sustain his five point eight percent, he would have jumped all the way up to the QB three.

[00:53:31]

Now, I don't think he really could have done that. The reason for the huge volume increase was because the efficiencies did go down. My point is simply you make Jared Goff average again and he's easily in the top 10. Look at the weapons that are being drafted for Jared Goff. He has two wide receivers being drafted in the top 20. He has a tight end being drafted in the top 10 carmakers is just outside the the the top twenty four at the running back position.

[00:54:01]

Probably by next week or so, carmakers is going to slip inside there. Why would you not want the the quarterback who has the carmakers is going to slip and slide their.

[00:54:15]

Who doesn't love a good slip and slide, but like Jared Goff is being completely overlooked because he he burned me last year, he burned bad games are really bad. The bad games will really turn the ball over twenty six times last year. Yes. And but the the actual output changing him from what he was last year to being right back in the range of a weekly starter is very small. Yeah, the touchdowns are a huge deal here because if you think about how much has been said about the outlandish touchdown number that Todd Gurley had last year, the Rams had twenty rushing touchdowns last year.

[00:54:54]

Right now, without Todd Gurley, that's not happening. That's part of why Jared Goff only had twenty two passing touchdowns.

[00:55:01]

You can't pass a touchdown on the drive that it's rushed in.

[00:55:05]

And that's an excellent point, just a fact. And so if if some of that regresses to the mean, you're going to have more more touchdown opportunity. The the one downside was that I did watch hard knocks and I saw how now granted it was Aaron Donald, but my goodness, it was just like sac sac. It's funny, the sac, that part was pretty funny. You know, I don't know if maybe some of the interception because the interceptions went up last year to sixteen.

[00:55:32]

I don't know if some of that was he gets a little bit shell shocked from taking a hit early in the game. That concern the pressure and he gets rid of the ball too soon. His sacks went down last year from the year before, even though that's shocking. But the interceptions went up still double, still double digit fumbles.

[00:55:48]

Did you see they gave it all right. Did you see that? They gave Aaron Donald a veteran day off. And did you see what he's still got a few sacks, as you say. Well, McVay said about it, though, it wasn't I genuinely don't think it was to give Aaron Donald the day off. He was giving off the defensive line of break. He's like, we've got to let the offensive line have a couple of good days.

[00:56:08]

Comparing anybody else to hawk over Aaron Donald is unfair.

[00:56:13]

I mean, that dude is.

[00:56:14]

He is. Yeah. If you put Aaron next to Chad Taylor, he's a bad, bad man. It's Aaron. No body fat at all.

[00:56:21]

Like, I don't know how you can weigh what he weighs and have no body fat, but he pulled it off. All right. That is it for values. We want to thank pristine auction. Yesterday, Kenny Golladay signed Jersey just fifty one dollars. That's forty one.

[00:56:34]

If you used the sign up code. Pollaers It's true.

[00:56:37]

Pristine auction dotcom is to code ball ten dollars credit.

[00:56:40]

That'll do it for us. We're slip sliding out of here. I'll go down now. It's a gentle exit. Oh they for supporting the show. See you tomorrow. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy football podcast, join our fantasy football community on Join the Foot Dotcom and follow us on Twitter at the F. In a reminder of FOID clan, Navy Federal Credit Union offers members great ways to lower their interest rates and save more like their low interest card, the platinum card, it's perfect for large purchases that you might need extra time to pay off or you can save by refinancing your auto loan to another lender from another lender to Navy, federal and Navy federal members are the mission.

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