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My next guest has compiled a list of what he perceives to be the greatest threats to global peace that the world faces in 2021. And Brett Brune is a former adviser to the Obama White House and president of the Global Situation Room at Bretheren.

Good morning and welcome. Good morning. How are you? I'm very well. We have a list of five that you furnished to us before the events on Capitol Hill, but we go through them anyway.

And when we come to the relevant one, we will expand a little bit. We first go to number one on your list, which is China.

Why is China a global threat where we've seen indications over the last several years that China is shedding some of their prior reluctance to exert power and both internally in obviously the case, the workers in Hong Kong, but externally as well, trying to throw weight around, whether it's at the United Nations or indeed in cyberspace. I think we will see this only expand and they're going to try, especially with a Biden administration, to show that they are now a power to be reckoned with.

Now, one of the last things well, who knows? And Mike Pompeo is doing, of course, he decided that they would permit communications at government level between the U.S. and Taiwan. And that looked to me to be a spoiler for the the incoming Biden administration. Yeah.

And there's a there's several of these last minute policy changes, whether it was with the Houthis in Yemen yesterday in the case of declaring Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism.

And as you mentioned, in the case of Taiwan, you know, in some ways these moves are beneficial to an incoming binded administration because they allow them leverage and and more room for negotiation. So I would expect to see Biden's team, many of whom I worked with in the last Obama administration, come in and say, yes, we're glad to, for instance, reenter the Iran deal, but we're going to need some changes.

Yeah, so so they will play with what Mike Pompeo has left them before we move on from from China and the activities of the outgoing administration. Are there any other areas that you think Mike Pompeo will launch a few curveballs before at the 20th of January?

Well, I do expect that we're going to see some additional ones. Certainly when it comes to his favorite topic of religious freedom. The United Nations has been always a an area or a popular target for him. So those are places that he's going to want to make his mark. Because let's not forget, Mike Pompeo has ambitions for running for president himself, likely in 2020 for.

Well, so many on the Republican side, it'll be quite a crowded field, it brings us, therefore, to add the global threats for 2020. One in second position, you put the outgoing president, Donald Trump. Does what happened on Wednesday last change that you had a heat when I'm right.

But in this case, as you had mentioned, identified end of last year that through conversations with Trump's advisors and others that are close to the administration, that he plans to take this show on the road.

And he is going to particularly come to Europe, to Africa, Middle East and Latin America with the intent of aligning himself both with populist politicians.

And it is going to be a mix of both the political but also the financial for Trump, where he can try and curry favors with governments and governments who are perhaps looking to hedge their bets, will throw a few million dollars for a Trump hotel or a Trump golf course. And if he should emerge either as president again or just a strong political player here in Washington, they'll feel like they have it.

But is he not a spent force? No. I mean, he's been abandoned.

We know the PGA will not have any part of any Trump golf course for the foreseeable as a private citizen and perhaps one who has been impeached and shamed.

Governments don't have to bend the knee anymore. I mean, Trump people despised him at the heads of government, but they deferred to him because he was president of the United States. When you don't have that anymore and you're only an ex-president, I mean, he doesn't have to have a welcome on the mat at all from any of the Western European administrations.

You know, it's interesting because it largely comes down to whether or not the U.S. Congress will pursue not just impeachment. You'll recall, having gone through this before, that it's not just the impeachment in the US House of Representatives, but it is then the trial in the U.S. Senate.

And then after that, a very important decision has to be made to ban Trump from public office henceforth. That would be a powerful message.

I've got an article coming out in my Business Insider column this week about how impunity and impunity for Trump, for Rudy Giuliani, for Donald Trump Junior and their actions and responsibility for the attack on the U.S. Capitol would send a very destabilizing message to the world. Whereas if Trump is banned from public office, it does to a certain extent create a deterrent and it neuters his political power in some way. That being said, you know, Trump is going to take his grievances and use them to try and fuel his movement, both here and abroad.

He has no platform at the moment online and whatever the president of the United States can say from the White House on which will be covered as a formal presidential announcement, he can even have a press conference and take questions. He can no longer fire out tweets at all hours of the day and night to embolden his supporters. That avenue is closed to him, and I think his enablers know that they're likely to be dumped as well if they try any of this stuff.

True, though, he has obviously a still very strong base of supporters. I mean, there's talk that he will build his own media channels. I think there is a real risk that this could make America great movement will find its own platform and essentially create a conversation for spreading their own misinformation and recruiting support through a network that is detached literally from the rest of the world.

Now, Trump obviously faces all sorts of potential problems, whether or not he manages to swing some sort of a pardon or otherwise, he faces litigation, federal litigation, he might escape.

But as state litigation, he cannot in New York, perhaps even in Georgia over that famous phone call.

So he may be quite busy, even though he has gathered the funding to protect himself legally and to hire the best legal minds. He could be quite busy over the next while.

Indeed. And, you know, there was an interesting quagmire that was pointed out yesterday, and that is Trump was told apparently by his lawyers that if you pardon yourself, especially for the responsibility for inciting the insurrection last week on the capital, it requires an admission of guilt and that opens him up to civil liability, which is one whole front of lawsuits that we can expect to see.

Separately, there are state level lawsuits. Let's not forget that, for instance, in the state of Georgia, there was, you know, it seems like ages ago, but only a week and a half ago, a tape of the president trying to intimidate the senior election official in the state to quote unquote, find me the votes. That's illegal under state law. And he could certainly be prosecuted. And he didn't do himself any favors with the governor of that state in his attacks on him.

So a lot of those chickens are coming home to roost now for Donald Trump.

Moving on to the next and certainly not a surprise to see Russia on your list of global problems for 2021.

Yes. And obviously we've had many discussions about Russia, but they have come back with a vengeance in their wide reaching hack, both government systems as well as major corporations. The level of sophistication that Russia continues to demonstrate is very worrying. And I worry that we continue to prepare for the last version of their attack versus where they're headed. And we really have to skate to where the puck is at this point. And Russia is going to take full advantage of what we have seen transpire here in the U.S. They're going to continue not just in the United States, but as I pointed out in a column on Friday, the damage to democracy, to democratic systems from what we witnessed at the U.S. Capitol cannot be overstated in Russia sees this as just a golden opportunity for them to try and further weaken the institutions, the ideals that we have long cherished.

Hmm. Now, obviously, people would be saying, well, Americans have interfered for decades in other people's jurisdictions, notably, I suppose, in what was termed the backyard Central and South America, trying to do the same to Russia, because many people would say, do you know, tit for tat stuff?

The difference being that America is a very open society compared to Russia and trying to get into their systems digitally or otherwise, much more difficult than for them to get inside American systems.

Yes, and this is where I think we have to be a bit more creative when we're giving Putin some of his own medicine. The weakness, whether it's with Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping or Kim Jong un, is that they are propped up by a lot of their own propaganda, by a lot of systems that are obscure. And I think where not only the United States, but, you know, I would argue in concert with other allies, especially in Western Europe, can work is to shine a bright light on some of those dark corridors in Moscow and Beijing and Pyongyang.

And that is going to send chills through the halls of power there. That is going to be a major deterrent. And I say this from some experience. When we did it in response to Russian disinformation efforts in Ukraine back in 2014, we saw the Russians retreat. And I think we've just got to assert ourselves. We've got to say we will not only respond with statements and with strong words, but we will understand the nature of this threat and we will be willing to stand up and to put some of this this power of of transparency to work.

Now, the next the fourth on your list of five is the post American era. And this, I suppose. In an era where the United States is no longer the dominant world power, I mean, Donald Trump retreated from so many international obligations, can Biden simply not rebuild this?

This is the dose of reality that I think it's important for both Americans, but also a lot of our European allies, not least of whom are the Irish that that want America in many respects to pick back up the mantle of leadership and to ensure global stability and security and adherence to certain standards.

It's not going to happen. The United States is badly damaged after not just four years of Trump, but part of my theory of a post American era says this has been happening for a while. I mean, going back to Bill Clinton in the case of Kosovo, saying, well, we will try and protect the Kosovars, but from above 10000 feet, I it is a far cry from Franklin Delano Roosevelt's four freedoms that we will defend anywhere that they are under threat in the world.

And unfortunately, I think what it creates is a time of greater friction. We're seeing it play out and we will see the likes of whether it's Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, the Philippines, start to try and throw around more weight. And and I would pay attention to the next couple of months, because what many of those leaders are looking for is to both pocket some of the advantages that they secured under President Trump, but also to test the new administration.

And finally, the continent of Africa, I mean, for decades now, they've been saying, you know, this continent so rich in natural resources, young population, the potential is enormous.

It never seems to be realized.

And it has been, at least by the United States, forgotten for the better part of the last four years. It was never well looked after in prior administrations. I think the risk both from, you know, a global health standpoint, but also from some of the Democratic gains that had begun to emerge, as well as obviously the security risks are quite great. And here I would make the point that Ireland has both a special burden as well as an opportunity.

I mean, Ireland has just taken a seat on the UN Security Council.

It is now an essential partner to the United States as a as our closest ally remaining in the European Union. I think there is a role, particularly with Ireland's history of peacekeeping and development and aid, to put Africa back atop the global agenda to focus on these issues before it's too late.

Brett Brown, former adviser to the Obama White House and president of the Global Situation Room. Thank you very much for joining us.

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