The presenting sponsor of Positive America is zip recruiter, if you're a business owner, you've got a lot on your plate. You might be trying to reopen, trying to figure out, you know, you need masks, hand sanitizer, all kinds of other stuff. Lots going on for employers. You know, John, I really I think you can't stress that enough.

There is a lot going on for employers. How about that? How about that analysis, business analysis?

That's why you should let Zipp recruiter handle your recruiting. That's one thing you can get off your plate. Lovett ZIP recruiter does the work for you.

They're smart. Matching technology finds people with the right skills and experience and actively invite them to apply to your job. ZIP recruiter also notifies job seekers who are the right fit for your job after it's posted. So you start getting matches for your job right away. In fact, four out of five employers who post on ZIP recruiter get a quality candidate within the first day with a seamless experience from start to finish. Zip recruiter takes care of your recruiting so you have one less thing to worry about.

See for yourself.

Right now you can try zip recruiter for free at zip recruiter dotcom slash crooked that zip recruiter dotcom slash crooked. Welcome to Positive America, I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer on today's pot dads conversation with political message guru and not Shenker Osorio. About twenty twenty campaign ads in the race class narrative. This is part of his campaign Experts React series, which you can find, of course, on YouTube.

Dotcom slash crooked media smash that subscribe button, right, Dan?

That is correct. And you missed one thing, which is when you do campaign experts react. You need air quotes around experts. It's a very important part.

No one can see that I wasn't making them before that.

We'll talk about today's jobs report, what it means for the twenty twenty campaign, and then we'll answer some of the questions you all sent in over the last few days.

But first, check out parts Save the World this week, Tom and Ben unpack all the details about the explosive reports that Russia paid Taliban linked militants to kill U.S. troops in Afghanistan. They try to understand why Putin would do this, how the US should respond. And the latest on the intel with Congressman Adam Schiff.

If you haven't already, check out that's the ticket, the new iPod Save America bonus series where Dan and Alison M. Monaco break down the vice presidential selection process. Episode one is out now. New episodes drop on Fridays.

Dan, what are you guys talking about this week? This week, we are talking about how Joe Biden's decision to select a woman, how that's going to affect the process.

And we take dig deep into the two previous times a woman has been on the ticket, obviously, Sarah Palin 2008, but also Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. And what lessons can be learned from how those played out in Elyssa talks to Rebecca Traister about Joe Biden's selection and what challenges the eventual nominee will face in the media? Can't wait. Check it out, guys, tomorrow, Friday. All right, let's get to the news. So neither of us knew it was jobs dadin because we forgot.

Tomorrow is a holiday and because we've lost our conception of time and space here.

And Donald Trump's pandemic ridden health escape was a surprise this morning.

Nonetheless, the Labor Department announced this morning that employers added four point eight million jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell to eleven point one percent.

But we're still 15 million jobs short of where we were in February. And there are signs that the job situation is actually deteriorating now, that a spike in covid cases is causing businesses to close again. One point four million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week, and more than 800000 filed for benefits under the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Program. In the number of permanent job losses actually rose this month to two point nine million.

Dinham. I'm sure you reacted to this news the same way that Donald Trump did this morning, who said the following at a brief press conference where he took no questions. It's all coming back.

It's coming back faster, bigger and better than we ever thought possible. These are the numbers. These are not numbers made up by me. These are numbers.

Your thoughts? I mean, you what I I turned it on this morning.

As you mentioned, we did know this jobs day. The reason the jobs numbers are coming out on a Thursday instead of a Friday is because apparently tomorrow is a holiday, which I forgot. I forgot that there were distinctions between working from home and just being at home.

I don't know. Holidays are still a thing, which is weird because I had huge plans for Fourth of July weekend for usual. Huge, huge.

So I watched them this morning at six thirty a.m. our time, which is how I like to start all of my days. And I turned it on just a little bleary eyed from waking up too early again this morning. It felt almost like I was watching C-SPAN classic, like what he was saying was so disconnected from the reality is like if you just were to, like, parachute in and watch a press conference, you would not realize that we were in the middle of a historic recession.

You would not realize that coronavirus cases were surging all across the country and businesses were shutting down again. And he clearly is trying to hang on to the thinnest reed possible of good news. But I think it like that press conference is part of what has been a large part of his political problem over the last several months, which is he is not operating in the same reality in which the majority of Americans are not at all, I thought.

There was an interesting difference between the last month's jobs report when he came out and he sounded fairly triumphant, and I think some of the media coverage of last months was like, oh, this is a surprise.

Maybe the recovery is going to go faster than we thought. Maybe this is like a boon for Trump. And this month it felt a lot different, partly because we just hit 50000 fucking cases per day.

Yesterday, the highest spike in covid cases since the pandemic began, even at the height in March and April when New York was getting hit really hard. And as businesses start closing again because of what's happening across the south and the west, I think like Donald Trump, like you said, Donald Trump coming out there and saying, oh, these numbers are great, we're on our way.

And at one point he said he talked about the virus. He said, we're getting it under control. It's got a life and we're putting out that life because that's a bad life we're talking about.

Like he had nothing to fucking really say about the virus that is causing the recession, that is continuing to deepen the recession. And as you saw, like some of these, basically the job gains are all concentrated in some of these temporary layoffs that happen as sectors closed and then started opening back up again, but permanent job losses started rising again.

So it does not seem like this is anything for us to cheer about, for the country to cheer about, and certainly not anything for Donald Trump to brag about.

What's also the the reality is worse than these numbers, most likely because for folks who don't know the jobs numbers derived from a survey that's done one week, the month and that week is in the middle of the month. So the what the quote unquote survey week for this jobs report was more than two weeks ago. So it does not reflect what has been happening in Texas, Florida, California over the last seven to 10 days where businesses are starting to shut down again.

And this is just pretty big states. Yes, there are large state, pretty big states that, yeah. That represent a large share of the economic activity in the country.

Like, it's just it is bad messaging for sure. Right. Like, if you like, this is something that we obviously dealt with a lot in 2009, 2010, which is you have to be very careful in how you tout something that sounds like good news when that good news is separated from what the vast majority of American families are feeling on a daily basis.

It is very clear, anecdotally, based on research, that people are very scared for their health and for their economic situation. And so when you go out and tout numbers like this that people may see on the news but not feel in their homes, that is, you know, you are you're going to lose people in that way. And that's that is I think Donald Trump has been tonally off from the situation from the very beginning in this pandemic, and that continues.

I was trying to imagine what Obama would have said if he was in this position and these numbers came out. I mean, or any normal president, but just because we worked for him, like he would have walked out and said, you know, yes, these numbers are are slightly better than expected, but none of us should be satisfied until every American has a job again. And these numbers only remind us that the most important thing we can do to get the economy moving again is to defeat this virus.

Here's how we're going to do that. And these numbers remind us that we need more help for people who are hurting in this economy. That's why I want Congress to pass the Heroes Act and more stimulus.

And, you know, like you could come out and be determined about how these numbers make you want to fight harder, to put people back to work and get the economy going again.

And then at least you look to people like someone who is fighting for them and not someone who is on another fucking planet like Donald Trump seemed today.

I mean, I think I even think that Obama would handle it. Even less triumphantly than you suggested, it was not very triumphant at all, because my guess is that Obama will look at numbers like this. He would know and I know what his economic advisers say is they would say these numbers are not reflective of reality, because when the survey is and our big concern about this is it's going to give people, and particularly members of Congress a reason to not pass the large economic recovery package we need.

So I think he would actually come out and say these numbers are good, but we know what is happening as more and more businesses are doing that and say doing the right thing to shut down. And that is why it is all he'd almost say, ignore these numbers, because, I mean, obviously that's the right thing from a substantive point of view. But if you were being you know, if you were playing chess right, you would think the best way to improve the economy between now and November, when I the president will be up for re-election and therefore have the greatest individual interests in a good economy, would be to first get the virus under control, but also to ensure that we pass a large economic stimulus.

And if you tell these numbers too much, you're going to undermine the political will for that in Congress. And so, like this is that's why I say it's both a message mistake and a strategic mistake, because he made it much more likely. Jeff Stein from The Washington Post reports today that based on conversations with people familiar with White House economic officials, you're looking at a much smaller recovery package, if another one and hard in opposition to extension of the unemployment benefits, which would be devastating to the economy if that's the case.

Well, let's talk about that.

That was actually our first question from listeners. Juliette Hope asks, Can you discuss the upcoming time bomb that is the extra six hundred dollar unemployment insurance payment running out and people maxing out on regular unemployment insurance and school not going back full time or at all? It's about to be a giant fucking catastrophe. So then you started talking about this with the extra six hundred dollar unemployment insurance payment. I believe this runs out at the end of July.

I think that's correct. Yes.

So basically, Republicans, their position now and it seems like Donald Trump's position in an interview, I believe this week is that they don't want to rip up the six hundred dollar extra benefit that comes with unemployment insurance to people who are, by the way, staying home through no fault of their own because their businesses are closed or they were furloughed or they were laid off because of the fucking pandemic.

And the idea behind this program was and this was Democrats who pushed this Democrats in Congress. Unemployment insurance gives you a certain percentage of your income. They wanted to make sure that people who are home for now, through no fault of their own, were getting one hundred percent of their income.

The easiest way to do this is to average it out across different salaries.

And it basically came to if you do everyone's unemployment insurance benefits plus about six hundred dollars a week, you'll get close to people making one hundred percent of what they made when they were at work. That's how that's how that program came to be. Republicans and Donald Trump are now saying we don't want to do that again, because that is incentivizing people to stay home and not go back to work.

They can't work because their businesses are shut down because our president was too stupid to contain the virus. That is why I mean, it is morally offensive, right?

Like at the bare fucking minimum that we should do as a country is to make sure that people have enough money to live in their homes, have food. Right. Be able to put gas in their car. All of those things like that is the bare minimum we should do under the best of times, let alone the worst of times. But if you want a a strong economy, what the economy come back, then the people have to have money to buy goods.

So let's say you don't extend the six hundred dollars. Right. Let's say you are just some rapacious Republican asshole who does not care about the unemployed people when they don't have money, they are not going to pay the rent. When they do not pay their rent, they will be evicted. Therefore the landlords will not get money right. The stores will have less revenue and less profit because people are not able to buy things. It is a recessionary spiral.

The reason the economy is not much, much worse than it could be is because we gave people something to help them get through this time. This time is still happening. The coronavirus is getting worse, not better. In the idea that we would cut people off in the middle of it when they cannot go to work is insane. Yeah, that's the thing.

Seems like, you know, a lot of small business owners and people and restaurant owners and everyone else is like saying to people, well, we're not getting employees. They don't want to come back because they're making as much or more money at home.

They don't want to come back because they're afraid to get the virus, because we haven't controlled it. Like that's a legitimate reason to not want to go back to work more than legitimate reason.

And if you work in a restaurant, because we have such in large parts of this country, still a incredibly outdated, cruel minimum wage, you work on 10. And when restaurants are a 25 or 50 percent capacity, then you're not getting enough money to get like it's yeah, just pay people and get the virus under control. It's not like we do not have to choose. It is so stupid as a policy choice. To have a shitty economy right now is a policy choice to force people to be to choose between paying their rent and potentially dying of a virus.

And so I think where this is going to go is Republicans are basically saying we want to do another stimulus and extend unemployment insurance. But what we want to do is give people like a one time back to work bonus, which basically incentivizes people to go risk their lives at their workplace if their workplace is open. And then Democrats are hopefully going to fight for the extra six hundred dollars plus an extension of unemployment insurance. And I guess we'll see how that battle goes on in late July.

But I think politically, it is a good battle for Democrats to fight and also the morally correct battle for Democrats to fight as well.

And I think some Democrats, including Schumer, I believe, introduced a bill that would make the the expanded unemployment benefits extended and only turned off by getting by the situation in your state on the virus, on the economy, which is, I think, a really smart way to do it. And if Donald Trump is so confident that this virus is going to disappear, he should have no problem supporting a bill like that because that would be over very quickly.

Do you want to talk about the impending disaster of school not going back full time or at all?

I mean, like we obviously have a child care crisis in this country at the best of times because we are incapable of having universal pre-K and other things that most of the normal world thinks is an important part of having a functioning society. But how are parents supposed to work right when you have your kids at home like there are two parts of this. One is my family is very fortunate in the sense that Kyla's only two and therefore we are not for it.

Like it is easier for us to sort of play with our someone works is turn off it. Like we don't have this obligation to like do four hours of Zoome social studies every day. Right. And but like, a lot of my friends have kids who are of school age and it is impossible for, you know, for single parents to family parents to, you know, to work or two working parent families to do this all the time. And so what is going to happen there?

And then what is going to happen to all of the teachers and all the people who work in schools who will not have jobs come the fall if we can't get this right? And it's really I mean, and the problem is, is because we don't know what's happening with the virus. No one can give people any ability to plan because they do not know what is going to happen in school. It look like there's the reasons that schools are having trouble opening up is we don't know a lot about the virus.

There's some evidence that it's not as transmissible with children.

But no matter how many precautions schools take, whether there's distancing, where this mask, gloves, santita, all this kind of stuff, which, by the way, is already hard for public schools to spend money on and do.

It's always going to be true that if your school is in an area of the country where there's more virus, there is more danger there.

And so the best thing we can do to help schools open again is to tamp down the virus and to defeat the virus. Right. And it's clear that Donald Trump, the federal government and a lot of state governments have prioritized opening up fucking bars and restaurants over schools, which is absurd, right?

Like because now they've opened up bars, they've opened up like a big gathering place, stuff like that. And now we have virus spikes in places like Florida and Texas and Georgia and Arizona and California. And now there's so much virus that like no matter how many precautions you take in public schools, it's still going to be dangerous.

So it's like, again, just like the economy, whether it's the economy, whether it's public schools, whether it's education, whatever, it may be like the number one economic plan, the number one education plan is beat the virus. That's it. That's that's the most important priority. And the federal government has just decided not to do it because Donald Trump's in charge.

Juliet also ended her question by asking, where is my Dan Ben all crossover episode?

Can I love that I love you inroads to get together and just start. I don't know what you'd rant about, but something I.

I got to be honest about something. Sometimes I rant and sometimes I enjoy ranting. I do not enjoy being known as a ranter. Now that's no one's fault but my own. I recognize that. But it is, I'm very uncomfortable with it. And sometimes like when I back when I was allowed to leave my home and I would travel and I was doing like book events, you know, you get a question for the audience. They would say, can you give me a Paul Ryan rant?

And it's like I wrote a book about Recognize. I put out Paul Ryan Ryan in the book. But it's like I wrote a book I'd like to talk about. The book is that you just yell on any topic. As long as it involves Paul Ryan, we don't care. Just yell for us. And like, look, as I say, this is my fault. Not happy about it. I would love to talk to Ben Rhodes on a podcast, off a podcast.

I may end up ranting, but I. I would want to be part of some sort of rant special.

I will say our friend Ben Rhodes, when he started to save the world, you know, he still had his sort of I go on cable TV, I'm very you know, I'm polite.

I you know, and as he got into positive the world and the rants began, that really is the the real Ben Rhodes that we know. Yes, it is. Enjoy. It has been enjoyable hearing Ben go on a few rounds of the world. Really find his voice. All right. Well, we'll try to schedule that sometime in the future.

OK, so possibly related question on the unemployment benefits from someone calling themselves Kitchin, which what is the number one thing that the Biden campaign needs to do that you haven't seen them do yet?

I mean, the context of this is that Joe Biden is in a better political position than anyone ever possibly could have imagined, and just last night it was reported that he outraised Trump. Both the campaign and the combination of the campaign and the DNC outraised Trump, the RNC. So that is a huge deal. And it involved a very enjoyable dunking on Brad Paskeville.

So they're in a very good place, so don't file this under the unsolicited advice for Joe Biden tab on The New York Times op ed page.

Get out of the basement, which is right next to the racist authoritarian rant tab.

Look, I think that the next step for the Biden campaign is to undermine what remains Trump's last remaining strength in this race, which is even despite everything we just said about him, about the state of the economy and his response to it, he is still better trusted on the economy.

And voters, including a number of voters who are supporting Joe Biden, believe the economy would be better if Donald Trump is re-elected than if Joe Biden was elected. And so I think what comes from that is fleshing out what he would do right does have to be a giant. Like you don't need an entire book full of policy papers, but you need a pretty quick rundown of things that make sense.

I think they are things that need to be consistent with what he has been supported before and what he worked on with Barack Obama, but also adjusted for their current reality we live in, which I think calls for bigger and bolder economic solutions than you would have expected when he started this race. Yeah, I mean, when I talked to Ron Klain last episode, he said that in the next couple of weeks, Biden will be coming out with a more detailed economic plan, particularly a jobs plan.

I would imagine that, like, you know, first point of any five point economic plan for Joe Biden is contain the virus. And you can look at one of the reasons that Joe Biden is leading significantly in the polls right now, even as Donald Trump retains this economic advantage, is and you saw this in The New York Times, Siena College polling, like large majorities of Americans, thinks it's more important to contain the virus, even if it hurts the economy in the short term, then reopen the economy if it means the virus might spread.

So while a slight majority might still trust Trump on the economy, that's not the overriding issue of concern for them. Right now. It is controlling the virus. And so, like Joe Biden may win this race, even with people trusting Trump more on the economy, that's very possible.

But you're running a campaign. You've got advantages on Donald Trump everywhere else. This is the one place he has an advantage. You might as well work pretty hard to mitigate that advantage. And I think Peter Hamby has a great piece in Vanity Fair on this today or yesterday talking about this. And he cites some research from a pro Biden super PAC that's out there, Unite the country that actually went through and did focus groups with a lot of these swing voters.

And, you know, they found that when you talk about what Joe Biden did on the Recovery Act with Barack Obama when he was vice president, when you talk about Joe Biden's middle class roots, when you talk about what he plans to do in the future and what his vision is and how he wants to fight for middle class people and fight for you as opposed to rich people like Donald Trump, that actually gives some of these swing voters some confidence that Joe Biden will do as well, if not better than Donald Trump on managing the economy.

Yeah, this is all about the continuing effort to define for Biden to define himself before Trump defines Biden. And all of these in policy is a proxy for character and values. Right. And so Trump wants to paint a certain picture of Biden.

And the more Biden fills in the blanks before Trump does that and policy helps do that and helps do it in a way that the press will cover. And it makes the Trump campaigns pretty tough task even tougher. All right.

Next question is from Mark Coleus. What do you guys think about the Lincoln Project crew? Are they effectively moving Republicans away from Trump or is it not as effective as it seems to be on the surface?

This is just one of many questions that we received about the Lincoln Project. And what do you think?

I'd like to hear your answer first. OK, so here's my here's my thought on the Lincoln Project. To me, the Lincoln Project ads and their effectiveness make me think about the focus group. I sat down with an Arizona for the wilderness that was the Romney Clinton voters. People voted for Romney and then voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and most of them were former Republicans. And their problem with Trump is all of the things that the Lincoln Project ads depict, right.

That he's chaotic, that he's out of control, that he has, like, betrayed us in a million different ways, like all the great ads that they have are like definitely designed to move Republicans, independent leaning Republicans and probably like undecided voters who are like maybe college educated white men.

Right. That seems like the target for the Lincoln it now.

Are those the only undecided voters or those the only group of swing voters? Absolutely not.

They are one slice of voters.

So, you know, noncollege educated white voters who voted for Trump, who may be upset about the economy or upset about their own financial situation with the Lincoln Project that move them, maybe not people who aren't decided whether they're going to vote at all, who tend to be people who are younger and voters of color who come in and out of the electorate, like are the Lincoln Project ads for them also?

Probably not. But in this one small slice of the electorate, I do think they could be effective and we don't know that for sure yet.

But what we can tell in a lot of this polling, especially some of The New York Times polling, they when interviewed these voters, when they talk to people who voted for Trump in 2016 or former Republicans or Republicans who said they're going to vote for Joe Biden this time, what you hear from these voters reflects what you see in a lot of these Lincoln Project ads. So I do think they have some effect there. I don't know.

What do you think? I mean, people, because of campaign experts react the YouTube series that you makes me.

Do you people ask me about the Lincoln Project on time? They're constantly tweeting every Lincoln project out of me. And it's always in this context of why can't Democrats be this good?

And so I think. A couple things about this one, I think some of their ads are excellent. What they are very good at, addition to just being fast, which I think is impressive, but is they're very good at generating viral content that shapes media narratives, and that is an important function in any campaign like we need that. Republicans have a lot of that on their side. Democrats are of limited and because they are Republicans, that gets more attention.

Right. It's just it has this sort of imprimatur of legitimacy that it's a bunch of people who try to get Mitt Romney and John McCain elected and someone who has breakfast with Kellyanne Conway putting these ads out. Right. And they but I think it is easy to confuse, particularly for political junkies like us.

Veraldi inefficacy write and add that, you know, sort of titillates everyone on Twitter is unlikely to be a piece of content that is particularly persuasive to voters who do not feel strongly about Trump, who have mixed feelings about him, who are skeptical of politicians generally and Democrats specifically. And so I think it's just like I think they are serving a very useful function. A lot of times they put these ads out, they usually run, they often run them in D.C. on the hopes that Trump will see them and react to them.

I think the purpose of this ad they put out in Russia last night, I just saw they bought ads in South Dakota because Trump is doing an insane virus fire rally for the Fourth of July. And they're trying to, you know, because they know all the reporters will be watching that and will react to it. I think that's all very clever. But there are a bunch of Democratic super PACs who were just out there doing the work right. They are running ads that are effective.

They are not as sexy. You know, they are unlikely to get a thousand tweets or not let them get a bunch of, like Hollywood celebrities tweeting them out and praising them like they're not really celebrities. Like, it's sort of it's a little like Mark Wahlberg in The Departed. Right.

You know, a lot of you know, a lot of these Democratic super PACs are the ones doing their jobs ads like a project with the other guys. And so, like, they have some very good ads. And we discuss one of them on next week's episode of Campaign Experts React. But I just I think that we just have to recognize that sometimes very, very effective ads are boring to political junkies. Oh, most of the time there most of the time they are because well, and partly because political junkies look, I think part of it is there's a class and education divide here, right?

Like the when we pull the ads that are most effective, tend to be ads about like economic populism, Trump taking away your health care, Trump's trade deals hurting farmers, the fact that, you know, like other kind of economic issues and they're targeted at voters who are particularly cynical and frustrated with government and sometimes both parties, because they haven't delivered for them, because their financial situation is very tough and it doesn't seem like anyone in Washington is doing anything for them.

Those ads tend to be effective among a large groups of swing voters that we're trying to get. Those ads don't tend to be very sexy to people who are in media, in Republican consultant circles, in punditry circles, Hollywood circles, all the people on Twitter who are retweeting all the time.

But again, like I think it is very valuable to try to shape the news cycle because people make up their minds about elections, not just through ads, but through media coverage. And to the extent that the Lincoln Project, people can have figured out how to game media coverage and help shape the media narrative.

I think that's very useful and we can probably learn to do that as well with some of our ads, even if they're not, like, directly targeted to the voters that.

Yeah, and there are some people like the new PAC Midas Touch who have got who are doing that and. Yeah, several similar effectiveness.

The other thing I think to the credit of the Lincoln Project, like there's a lot of Griffing going on in Trump circles, you know, a bunch of people who've decided that the way to get attention is to be a Republican against Trump, you know, the sort of the Scaramucci Omarosa world or John Bolton. And it's right. There's a way to get some pretty big checks be, you know, being one of those lonely few, if you will.

But the Lincoln Project folks are doing something that is not getting a lot of attention, which is they are actually running ads to help the Democrats take the Senate back. They have an ad up in Montana that is a mostly positive spot about Steve Bullock that takes a shot at Steve Daines. And it's one thing if they like, they obviously have a lot of enmity towards like Lindsey Graham and McConnell and the people who facilitated Trump and they think are seeking their party.

But when you take on Steve Daines, like, that's a sign that you think the way to solve the problem in the party is to give Democrats full control and make the Republicans have a reckoning. And I think they should get credit for that. This is not just a bunch of viral anti Trump videos, followed by some contracts, like if you're going to help Steve Bullock get elected, you know, I applaud that. And look, you don't have to love all of the policy positions or political positions of the people in the Lincoln Project.

Politics is about building alliances towards shared goals. And when when when our goals sort of separate from theirs, then we don't need the Lincoln Project where we can go back to fighting each other.

Right. Like, it doesn't mean like because you like Lincoln Project that you, like, have to say, oh, they had a great position on the Iraq war. None of them did. But right now, Donald Trump is an immediate and urgent threat to democracy.

And it's like, let's take all the help we can get from all across the political spectrum to beat him. And then once he's gone, we can all go back to fighting over other issues.

Parts of America is brought to you by liquid, I've talk about the ways you try to stay hydrated throughout the day. Do you have a favorite water bottle?

Do I ever you know what? I one thing that helped me was I stopped wearing a trash bag around under my clothes. Yeah, that's not that's dehydrating. That's dehydrated. Dehydrated. Who knew? Look, I. I drink water all day long.

Do I have any neighbors eating habits and any interesting habits to remind yourself to drink water. Yeah.

When I'm bored and don't have anything to do, I walk to the fridge and fill up, fill up the water. I need a drink.

But let's hear a time that you can hear Tommy swallowing if you listen closely.

Yeah, right. Well I for one struggle to hydrate because I drink a cup of coffee in the morning and then I forget that I have a fucking body till dinner basically.

Interesting.

So believe it or not, dehydration occurs daily in three out of four people with liquid IV, you have the fastest, most efficient way to stay hydrated. Each serving helps you get as much hydration as two to three bottles of water. Look at that.

Proper hydration is crucial for your immune system and can boost your immunity with Liquid IV, the fastest, most efficient way to stay hydrated. Plus, it's packed with potassium, vitamin C and other vitamins known to help your body defend against infections.

Also, it's delicious. It's a great, nutritious, delicious substitute. It's a drink, a glasses of water.

It's a dress. I love it. It's a drink. It's a drink. Just saying it's got Ivy in the name. People might think we're, you know, you drink it. It's a delicious drink, drink it and you hydrate a delicious drink.

You drink it to your skin in your veins. You in the desert, right. The mouth, mouth, mouth drinking, classic mouth drinking.

It tastes great too. Basically you put it in water, you put liquid I.V. in water, you mix it up, boom.

You got as much hydration as two to three bottles of plain water and it tastes great and it boosts your immune system.

What more could you ask for?

It is, in fact the perfect balance to help you hydrate more quickly and effectively than water alone. One stick of liquid I.V. and 16 ounces of water can give as much hydration as two to three bottles of plain water.

It's a stick. You put it in the water now. Put it in the water, not in your veins.

Tommy, don't events like what I mean is donating two point three million servings in response to covid-19 products are being donated to hospitals, first responders, food banks, veterans and active military like whatever is available nationwide at Costco.

Or you can get twenty five percent off when you go to liquid ivy dotcom and use the code crooked media at checkout. That's twenty five percent of anything you order when you use promo code. Crooked media it liquid ivy dotcom get better hydration today. Liquid ivy dotcom promo code crooked media.

All right. Saffy Khaleel asks, does Dad think there's a contradiction between believing the tipping point states and the Electoral College will be very close, but also advocating for more reach Senate candidates?

If you believe we're winning Wisconsin by no more than two to three points, we're probably losing Iowa by more than five. And Teresa Greenfield, she's the Democratic Senate candidate in Iowa, is a solid candidate, but unlikely to win in that environment.

Great question. What do you think? It is a great question. And maybe you really can reconsider a lot of the things I've been doing recently. So thank you. I mean, I certainly understand the question.

I understand if you're a one individual and you're like, I have one day to canvass. Right. Does it make more sense to canvass in Wisconsin where or in Iowa? And I would say wrong answer canvass in North Carolina. But so, yes, like you like everyone should prioritize what states or races they care about most. And I don't know that Joe Biden is only winning Wisconsin by two to three. I mean, the most likely scenario three months ago was he's winning by one or losing by one.

Right. And maybe he wins by two or three. Maybe he wins by nine. Right. I mean, Obama won by seven not that many years ago.

And but just just like Joe Biden, the Democrats need to create as many paths as possible to 270. The Senate Democrats need to create as many paths possible to fifty. Right. So because you don't know what's going to happen. Right. Like right now, Mark Kelly and John Hickenlooper look very strong, but who knows what will happen in those states or particularly in a in a situation with a pandemic. So, like, if we can invest in Teresa Greenfield and Bill the opportunity and sort of, you know, build a surfboard.

So if a wave comes, you can catch it, we should do it. And the other part about that, I think is important is every well-funded, organized race, whether you win or lose makes the next one easier. Right? Like maybe Teresa Greenfield wins. Then we have an excellent if not. But if she runs a close race against Joni Ernst, we're going to walk out of that race with a stronger Democratic organization. And Iowa more volunteer is better data that can be applied to the next time there's a statewide kid in that race.

I think the national political environment contributes to about, I don't know, 90 plus percent of the final outcome.

In a lot of these statewide races, and I think the partisan makeup of that state, the partisan makeup of the state, plus the national political environment gets you about like 90 percent there, maybe even more at this point because we're like more polarized than ever. But candidate quality, individual races, individual messages between both of the candidates, those things matter.

They still do matter. And that's why you get results like Jon Tester winning in Montana in twenty eighteen, even though it's a state that Trump won by double digits, we still had a Democratic senator hang on in that state. Now, we had a bunch of other Democratic senators in states that Trump won who lost because they just couldn't hang on and they couldn't beat sort of like the national sort of political environment and the partisan makeup of the state. But every once in a while, you have candidates who sort of who beat that.

And I think it usually happens every cycle. So will it be Teresa Greenfield? Will it be Steve Bullock? Will it be Doug Jones? Will it be like we don't know who that candidate is going to be? That sort of beats the partisan makeup of their state in the national political environment. But like you said, you might as well bet on a whole bunch of of candidates to see which one of them is going to do it.

Shane Smith asks, Can Washington, D.C. achieve statehood with a simple majority vote in the House and Senate and the president signing the bill? Or is there more to the process? Also, how close is Puerto Rico to becoming a state? Ostensibly, this is someone named Shane Smith. But I do believe it was actually a question sent in by our producer, Michael Martinez, a longtime resident of DC, longtime advocate of D.C. statehood. So, Michael, will just answer your question, but you could have just asked us on Slack, but we'll answer it here.

So I think if we have a Democratic House and Senate and we have Joe Biden as president and notably we remove the filibuster, then yes, that's how that they can make Washington, D.C. a state that that simply. Right?

Yes. I mean, you're ignoring the obvious need for a very expensive process to redesign the flag. That's that's true. You know, we can we can worry about that, and we also have the name Washington, D.C., something like that, like, oh that's right. That's actually in the House bill. I think they don't they rename it the. Commonwealth of Douglas, yeah, I think I was just going to say I think Douglas is in there after Frederick Douglas.

Yes, that's wonderful. I love that.

Let's just start. I think we should just like we don't even have to keep Washington having Washington, Washington, Washington State, Washington is confusing. Let's just.

Right. That's a good point. Yeah. We can do anything.

It's a blank canvas. People let the people of DC decide. I will say the last time they voted on something like this, they ended up renaming The Washington Post, the Washington Wizards. So maybe this could go very poorly. Yeah, that's true.

And on your question, on Puerto Rico, in May, Puerto Rico's governor announced a non-binding referendum that will be on November 3rd. Twenty twenty that will ask voters in Puerto Rico if Puerto Rico should be admitted as a U.S. state.

So and look, we do not want these become states just so that we can have a couple of Democratic senators from D.C. and Puerto Rico.

It's important for the people, the Americans who live in Puerto Rico and Washington, DC, to be able to determine whether they're admitted as states and to be able to get representation in the United States Congress, real representation. That's why this is important right now. But, yeah, I think, you know, because Republicans have decided that they don't give a shit about this, about having people who are Americans who are not represented in the U.S. Congress by any representatives who actually have real voting power.

It's going to be up to Democrats to do that. And so but, yeah, if we have a Democratic Senate, Democratic House and Joe Biden, we could we could do that in the first couple of weeks. Great.

Amy, Hendriksen asks if there's a retirement on the Supreme Court or.

I just I just got a bad feeling in my stomach just reading that either Alito, Sam Alito or Justice Thomas, Clarence Thomas or both. Oh.

Is there any way the Democrats can prevent McConnell and the Republicans from rushing a confirmation before the election? Yes, there is, and I was like, oh, but I think I was going to I wasn't sure about this one down. I mean, oftentimes I've brought this up a few weeks ago to you and you, as you often incorrectly do, accuse me of doomsaying. I mean, I was having a good day until you sent me that story.

I'm just I'm just I'm I'm trying to give you the information you need to make the appropriate decisions about your moods. Right. How you choose whose information is up to you. But there are the there are a decent amount of rumors flying around Washington that either Alito or Thomas is going to retire, in part because Trump's political position is so terrible that they feel like they would be lucky if they do not retire now. These independent Supreme Court justices would never retire under a Democrat.

So they're locking themselves into four more years of being on the court. It has been reported that Donald Trump would like a Supreme Court vacancy because he thinks it would help him politically because he has convinced himself of his own narrative that Brett Kavanaugh helped him by giving Democrats the largest popular vote margin in House races in history, you know.

So I think this is not something we should discount, right, as a possibility, but in order to get that done, Mitch McConnell is going to need the votes of Susan Collins, Cory Gardner, Martha McSally. And so we do have the ability to put tremendous pressure on them to not violate the standard that they themselves said four years prior to this that they would be forced to violate the quote unquote, McConnell rule. And frankly, and Mitch McConnell to that list of people need to put real political pressure on in their states.

Yeah, now I'm going to be the pessimist.

There's still a I guess it's a possibility we could stop that, but that still requires Susan Collins to do something courageous or independent or even in her own political interest, which I'm not sure that she knows what that is anymore.

So anyway. But, yeah, I guess I guess Democrats could do everything possible to gum up the works, slow things down, and then just it would be a tremendous pressure campaign on the Republicans who are up in 2020. And, you know, the window is closing, right? Like they have to nominate someone. There have to be hearings. It's now July. I guess the retirement would be announced sometime this month or maybe even in August. I think we've had August retirement announcements, too.

So then it would be man, then the fall campaign, September, October would be like a campaign in the middle of a pandemic and a recession against Donald Trump and Joe Biden with a Supreme Court nomination happening in the background.

Jesus, it doesn't make a great dent. That would be it's basically the cavernous schedule all over again, right? Yeah, except with the presidential instead of a midterm and in a pandemic.

And wonderful. Steve Garrison asks, I've always wondered when a campaign loses like all the other candidates in the primary did, what happens to the money they raised? Do they keep it? What is the answer to this, Dan? I know they don't get to pocket the cash. Well, they most cases campaigns end with close to zero money and oftentimes negative. Right? Right. So it's pretty rare that a campaign ends in the black. But when that does happen, they can keep it in their campaign account, which could be used for future campaigns, for federal office.

Presuming we're talking and we're obviously talking about presidential campaigns right now, or they can make unlimited contributions to party committees. So Michael Bloomberg ended his campaign with, I think, 18 million dollars in this campaign. Now, it was his money to begin with, but he had he had donated to the campaign and he gave all of that money to the DNC. Like that was his big contribution. Let's just say hypothetically, Bernie Sanders ended with, you know, seven million dollars, his account.

He could give that money to other campaigns in line with federal limits, which I think may be I think it's a PAC limit, but it's in the thousands of dollars. Or he could give all of that money to the DNC to help take the Senate or something like that.

Yeah.

But also campaigns, often there is a huge and very long audit and shut down process at the end of campaigns. I think it's very possible that certainly our 2012 campaign, 2008 campaign are still open for the shut down process, like that's how long it is. And so a lot of that money is spent on, you know, filing reports and complying with the audit. So it's not they don't get to, like, go buy a second home with a right or anything like that.

That's good.

We got two questions on our adopted state program. Has CPS written asks I'm a Canadian living in America. Can I adopt a state or is that some FEC violation? Quick answer. If you're a foreign citizen, you can't donate, you can't vote, but you can do everything else.

You can volunteer, you can contact voters. You can't. When we used to knock on doors, you can do that. You can phone bank, you can sign people, you can do everything but those two things, donating money and voting. So please adopt a state. Help us out here in America. We're now we're now calling on the world to help us with our dire straits here.

Donald Trump related question. Matt Mojica asks, Is it possible to make up those trainings for votes of America that happen every Thursday, have been able to make it training, but would love to make them up? Go Team Michigan? I think he meant Arizona. Yes, they're all online YouTube, dot com slash cricket media.

Smash that subscribe button. If you go to YouTube, Dotcom's media, all of the trainings are right there. We had just an amazing group of people sign up. I think they were like sixteen thousand people on a Thursday night for thirty days in a row to do these trainings. It was it was very inspiring to see everyone show up to these and learn how to organize better. So thank you for everyone who participated and everyone go to YouTube, dotcom slash cricket media and check it out.

A few more fun ones. Hey, guys, this is Masche from Toronto. My question for both Dan and John, what novels are you currently reading?

So I just finished The Vanishing Half by Brit Bennett, which is a truly I just I just I just started it. Yeah, it's like last week and I just started a death in her hands by a Tesa Mashco. I think I might pronounce Mispronounce her name, but she is a American author who wrote a book called Eilene that won a lot of awards a few years ago. And is this is a bit of a sort of a literary murder mystery.

And I'm only 10 percent in which I know that because I read on a Kindle. But it's superb. I want you to know what I did the other night.

And I was so stressed out by the news and especially like all the pandemic news, I finally just looked at my phone and I said, I'm done. I deleted the Twitter app from my phone.

So I did not know it's not back.

Because what I said to myself is when I sit down at my laptop like I am now or on my my iPad, which are all in my office except the Twitter apps there, especially my iPad, so I can scroll there, but at least it makes me go into my office and sit there and scroll. And so like when I'm walking around the house, when I'm in bed especially, no more scrolling through Twitter. And instead, you know, I started reading The Vanishing Half and before bed.

And it has put me at ease a bit more to just not have the news scrolling in my mind.

This was my post. White House changed my life, which is no phone in bed at night. It's plugged into the wall where I can't really reach a better and end like reading books now the morning's not so great by the night. That has been my plan. It's been. I'm not saying that I am the picture a fucking mental health these days, but it's better than the alternative, I guess. Follow up from Brady Minter.

What are some of your favorite book recommendations on American political history? Any era? I know, Dan, you and Tommy both read this, which is why I am Nixonland by Rick Perlstein.

I've been reading I've been trudging my way through logbook and logbook loan book for me. And also These Truths by Jill Lapore is an outstanding history of America that I would recommend to anyone. I've been reading that as well. What about you?

So it kind of depends on I have a long answer to this because really all I want to do in life is find a way that I could just like read and talk about books for a living.

And so, like, it's kind of part of what you want. If you want to learn about politics in campaigns, there are sort of like three books that have been read by every person who writes about American politics, who covers American politics. Every politician is read Richard Ben Cramer's What It Takes, which is the sort of the the first all of the inside the room like glorification of strategists, like campaign trail books that, you know, we now know about, like game change.

All came from that book. And it's an amazing book, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail. Hunter S. Thompson spoke about the 1972 presidential campaign. It's the book that every political reporter has read and they have all styled their lives after at least a start, at least the most recent, not the current generation, most recent generation reporters where they're out there throughout the campaign, they're at the bar at night. The hard drinking, hard living political reporter all comes from that.

And then, you know, Timothy Crouse's boys on the bus about the reporters covering the 72 election is sort of helps you understand the modern how we got to the place where we've been covering campaigns like sports for decades now.

You know, there's like a gazillion biographies that you can recommend to people, whether it's Robert or books about LBJ or, you know, everything Doris Kearns Goodwin wrote about Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt. But I sort of think the most interesting books to read are the ones that are not about sort of, you know, the these are the great man theory of history, these people who are bending the world to their will. And these books are almost invariably about men, which is why I said it that way.

But there are two books that I think are about sort of the country and the forces that shape the men and women who lead the country that are incredibly want to read. One is The Warmth of Other Suns by Isabel Wilkerson, which is about the Great Migration. And the other one is Republic of Suffering, which is by Drew Gilpin Faust. That is about the effect the Civil War had on the country because of the tremendous trauma, like everyone who died was an American.

And it helps explain it sets the context for the conversation we're having right now about the Confederacy and statues and all of that. And it's a it's a dark read, obviously, but I think a really powerful one of understanding the impact of war in general in that war, in particular American people. If you phone one's Eileen Cryonic asks Dan, is that big foot on your wall? I am not sure what they're referring to, but I think they're referring to it as an artistic rendering of Allen Iverson stepping over Tyron Lou in the 2001 NBA finals that my book publisher gave me to congratulate me on the publication of my first book.

And so the fact that he knew that that is a gift that I would love and be put on my wall is why we've worked together for many years. The publisher.

Yes. Yeah. Ashley was asked, when is the last semester Minako going to get a podcast with you guys? She's a gem. Of course she's a gem. First of all, that's why she's doing that's the ticket with you, Dan, because she's the country's foremost expert in the vice presidential process and the gem and a pleasure to listen to. She's also a co-host on Crooked Media's Histeria podcast, which is celebrating its one 100th episode today. Happy 100th episode to Erin and Alissa and the whole crew at Histeria.

But yeah, the more or less of the better is really our our theory here at cooking media.

I mean, that's been our theory for the last 13 years. Yeah. That predates crooked media. That's basically been your plan for the twenty first century is more or less right now, literally since the day I graduated college. Crystal, ask Dan, I got a new job and I'm moving to Delaware. What's the best thing about the state?

Best Delaware food. I can't wait for this one. Do you remember that restaurant in Union Station in D.C. called America?

Yeah. And it's shtick was they had food from all 50 states. So New York is pizza in California, something Mexican and Texas barbecue. And I'm sure maybe Ohio's chili or something. And Delaware was a chicken salad sandwich.

Now, to be fair to the state of Delaware, it is. That is not like I lived there for many, many years and I've never known that to be the food of Delaware. Delaware has a lot of really great restaurants, you know, because it is adjacent to Philadelphia. It is a place where cheese steaks and hoagies predominate and subs. Delaware is a great state. I don't know what sort of case I can make for it, but it gave us Joe Biden.

So that's good. It did it.

Delaware did give us Joe Biden. So there's that. Forget about the food then. The last question. I'm just going to go ahead and answer. It's it's from Lisa from Facebook.

And she asks, who would win in a dance off between me and you? And the answer is everyone who didn't have to watch.

I mean, I don't know that I have a great like we've been to a lot of weddings together. I was at your wedding in your right mind. I don't know. I think it speaks to how fun those weddings were that I don't really remember your dancing, but I'm relatively confident I would lose.

There would be no winners, but I would definitely be, like I said, just a dance off between.

I don't think anyone would want to watch that. But thank you for the question. All right.

When we come back, we will have Danz conversation on campaign experts react with political message guru and not Shenker Osorio. It's going to be about campaign twenty twenty ads and the race class narrative.

Putting America is brought to you by taxpayers, we all have a bad habit, we want to change, maybe it's less social media speaking directly to me, less coffee also, or more exercise, but without support, taking action can feel next to impossible.

It's true. It's true.

Luckily, talks based online therapy can match you with a licensed therapist right away, all from the comfort of your phone or computer. Talk to your therapist every day, whether you're working through something or want to stay accountable to a new habit or goal.

Tocks based therapists have experience treating depression, anxiety, substance abuse, trauma, relationship issues, food and eating and much, much more. We all need to talk sometimes, right, guys? Yeah, for sure. Look at that. Those two need to talk and talk. Space gives us the support we deserve at a price we can afford to match with your perfect therapist to talk space dotcom or download the app.

I had a dream where I was in a crowded elevator and nobody was wearing masks. What do you think it means? I know that sounds terrible. What do you think it means? Oh, I know what it means. But that means.

It means you're in Florida.

Then the elevator operator endorse you for president. Yeah, but I was naked. Happy ending.

Cool, cool, cool, cool, cool.

Cool match with your perfect therapist to talk space dotcom or download the app. Use promo code cricket to get one hundred dollars off your first month and help support the show.

That's tocks Face.com Promo Code Cricket Positive.

America is supported by Disney Television Studios, which produces award winning in culture, defining programming for all platforms, including little fires everywhere. Homeland Pose. This is US Modern Family, How to Get Away with Murder, Blackish, the Politician and so much more. A lot of good shows. We love Disney Television Studios, right? I got to tell you, you think the characters from Poes and the politician met the characters from Homeland. There'd be some weather, but talk season two of the politician.

It's great. I'm very excited. Great. Oh, you're watching it. Oh, we should. Yes. Oh, the season one was fantastic. I don't want to spoil anything. Season two. But it is it grips you from the very beginning. It is wild.

And I will say little fires everywhere. There's a cameo from none other than Andy Fabara.

Oh, I don't know that. But he's a little fires everywhere, so check it out.

So Disney Television Studios comprises 20th Century Fox Television, ABC studios and FOX. Twenty one television studios, television academy members. Be sure to check out DTZ Awards dot com now to watch over 50 Emmy eligible series for consideration in all categories.

And I just want to say I really appreciate the correct usage of comprises in this ad copy. It's not comprised of it comprises these these things. It says it's well done. And I am. I just think that's cool.

I've been doing a video series that breaks down, as in the twenty twenty election called Campaign Experts React. We're going to play our most recent episode. Now, the first ad we break down is very visual. If you would like to watch the ads, you can find the series at YouTube, dotcom slash crooked media. I have been hoping for and yearning for and tweeting about and screaming into a microphone about the need for there to be more positive ads about Joe Biden.

Trump is the protagonist of our ads.

I mean, honestly, getting me.

Welcome to another episode of Campaign Experts Reacts when we break down 20 20 ads and political media, explain what the people behind them are trying to accomplish and decide whether or not they did a good job on Dan Pfeiffer, former communications director for Barack Obama. Joining me today is messaging and communications expert ANot Shenker Osorio, the founder of Asso Communications and host of the podcast Words to Win by ANOT. Thank you for joining us. You are actually an expert, so we are very excited to have an actual expert on campaign experts react.

So thank you for joining us. And I was wondering before we got into these ads, you could tell our viewers what the race class narrative it is and what drove you to do that work.

Yeah, and first of all, thank you for having me. That's an all too kind introduction. And basically what the race class narrative is, is it's a three part structure and the order really matters.

In every winning race class narrative message begins in a shared value that could sound like no matter what we look like or where we come from. Most of us believe that people who work for a living ought to earn a living. If you're going into a union message or whether we're white, black or brown, all of us want to move through our communities without fearing for our lives or our loved ones. If you are obviously about to talk about what's happening presently with the protests and then it moves second to a statement of the problem and the way that we state the problem is by talking about deliberate division.

What that sounds like in language could be. But today, a wealthy and powerful few divide us from each other based on what we look like or where we live, so we don't join together to demand the health care all our families need, if that's what you're talking about. And then thirdly, it comes to a full circle with an insistence on cross racial solidarity. So that could sound like by joining together across race and across place, we can make this a place where freedom is for everyone.

Keith Ellison certainly uses this message. Elizabeth Warren notably would use it. AOC does versions of it.

And I'm proud to have been fighting for systemic solutions like Medicare for all federal jobs guarantee and the end to mass incarceration.

Today is a big day for people who have been left behind.

One of the ads we're going to be talking about is the first time I've seen Biden do it, at least in sort of 40 ad kind of way.

That is a professional Segway right there. Let's start with our first ad, which is from Black Vision's collection, which is one of the ads that you suggested.

Full disclosure, my team, we made that ad with Black Vision's collective, where it showed significant inroads was in terms of changing people's perceptions about the protests and specifically mobilizing black voters and other people of color. That is where it really shined across all the ads that we tested.

What that ad is, is it Nereids black excellence and it nereids black joy and it narrates black life other than the one image of the woman receiving the respirator. It is not a harms and horrors ad. And one of the most important findings that I've hammered through my career. I first saw this with work that I did in Australia and people seeking asylum in twenty fifteen is that when we depict harms and horror. So specifically in that case, when we showed images of people seeking asylum behind bars, it actually reinforced the opposition's story that immigrants were animals.

You can get people maybe to feel sorry for those people, which is by definition still otherwise. If you're feeling sorry for those people, that's not you. And so what? Showing black Troian black excellence and mobiles, people throughout a life cycle, children, babies, et cetera, labor woman in labor, it actually creates that bridge to empathy.

That ad blew me away for all the reasons you said. But also it is so important to get people's attention in this day and age, because if it's a digital either scrolling through their phone quickly or it's a television ad, they may be about to fast forward or doing a two screen experience where you look at Instagram while the commercials come on.

And so you have to catch people's attention and that one does it in so many, you know, quote unquote.

Political ads look exactly the same and they sound exactly the same. And they sort of like announce at the beginning, don't believe what you're about to hear, that this is coming from people you do not trust.

It's the equivalent of when your romantic partner says to you, we need to talk. And so as soon as they say to you, we need to talk, whatever it is they were going to say, you're already like like I hate whatever it is you're going to say.

So ads that look like political ads or essentially that equivalent, we are signalling to people, I'm going to talk to you about a political issue which we know famously people abhor people or hate politics. They don't like politics. I don't like talking about politics. So we tip our hand and then we start talking to them.

You're not going to believe what the producers have put on my script. And in fact, this is so stupid, I can't even read it, but. They want me to say, quote, The data is in and that when I say, quote, smash that subscribe button, people are more likely to subscribe to this channel, subscribe to smash something, subscribe to something I don't know.

The next time we're going to look at, as you previewed, is an ad from Joe Biden's campaign. The country is crying out for leadership, leadership that can unite US leadership that brings us together.

I look at the presidency as a very big job and nobody will get it right every time. And I won't either. But I promise you this, I won't. In fear and division, I won't fan the flames of hate. I'll seek to heal the racial wounds that have long plagued our country, not use them for political gain.

I'll do my job and I will take responsibility. I won't blame others. I promise you, this job is not about me. It's about you. It's about us to build a better future.

That's what America does. We build the future. It may in fact, be the most American thing to do. This is the United States of America. There's never been anything we've been unable to do. We set our mind to do it and we've done it together. I'm Joe Biden and I approve this message.

So what was your reaction to how Biden used the race class narrative in that ad? And why do you think it works? Yeah, I don't just think it works. I actually just completed a test of it. It's one of the most effective ads in terms of a high degree of statistical significance across a broad swath of the electorate, especially moderates, at moving people away from Trump and toward Biden. One of the most interesting things about it is that it doesn't name Trump.

It does actually show images of Trump. But if you follow the script, Trump is never named. And the way that it narrates the evil that he does is fanning the flames of hatred is deliberate division. The other thing that it does really fascinatingly, it actually says almost nothing about Joe Biden's resume. It is a pro Biden ad that doesn't present us with I did this and I accomplished that. Nor does it really say much about his personal characteristics.

What it does is it focuses in on the job of the presidency itself. So interestingly, the discourse isn't so much about Biden is. It's about what the task at hand is.

I have been hoping for and yearning for and tweeting about and screaming into a microphone about the need for there to be more positive ads about Joe Biden. This is really about the Biden campaign. But just progressive generally need to help define Biden before Trump defines Biden. And so this is a positive Biden that second, the best positive ads are implicit, if not nearly explicit, contrast with the opponent. This is an ad that is positive for Biden, but is really about Trump and why Biden is a solution.

That and the third reason why I love this ad is I remember when Biden announced his campaign, he talked about healing the soul of the country.

And that felt to me a little off the moment when it happened, right where it's sort of like we were going to bring Republicans and Democrats together and Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell and would be everything to be better post Trump. And that's just not my view of politics and that my view the Republican Party. But. When healing the soul of the country is actually about the soul of a divided country in this moment, as an antidote to Trump ism and what Trump ism is wrought, I think it works.

And so I thought it was an excellent ad that was authentic to what is best about it offers and encapsulating metaphor at the end.

So this build a better future. I think that claiming this future, even in this tenuous time where people are feeling rightly, really, really anxious and scared is incredibly important, especially when you consider that held up. In contrast to make America great again, the beautiful tomorrow that Republicans present that Trump represents is nostalgia, which requires no imagination. All you have to do is think, oh, I've seen that before on a poster or I've seen that before in a TV show.

Absolute bullshit, but easy to conjure in your mind. One of the hardest things about progressive messaging is it needs to provide a sense of that beautiful tomorrow. And that is where being on the left is just really, really hard. We've never lived in an America with racial equality. We've never lived in an America where working people actually had a fair return on their work.

But we have to manufacture that out of pure imagination that we look at it from Republican voters against Trump, which is yet another superPAC started by Never Trump Republican consultants.

Where is the president in a time of national emergency? Hiding, hiding in a security bunker, watching his shows, afraid alone, not a leader.

Supposing he brought the light inside the body, not a president, just a scared, incompetent. A couple of days it's going to be down to close to zero embarrassment.

You know that those who have worked with him know that the former defense secretary, James Mattis, accusing President Trump of being a threat to the Constitution. Our allies know that. And our enemies know that. Everyone knows that it's time for a competent president, let's elect one. We picked this ad for a couple of reasons. One is that it is different than a lot of the ads we've seen recently.

There's been this trend, particularly since the Trump administration ordered the violent clearing of peaceful protest in Lafayette Square for that photo op, the like a real sort of resurgence in ads and political videos that depict Trump as an authoritarian. And this one takes the opposite. And it, I think does in a relatively clever way. But I'm curious to get your take on the ad.

So if you actually look into soft Trump supporters, people are on the fence, people are still with him, but not sure, etc. When you look at what is that source of attraction, it pretty much boils down to these not politic. He's not P.C. He makes decisive decisions. He's strong. If you understand that, that's the Gordian knot you need to untie for the people who are still movable.

Then what what would you attempt to attack Trump by calling him an authoritarian strongman? You are actually feeding into the source of attraction, which you don't understand, I don't understand, but some people hold instead. What we see is that the mode of attacking Trump, it actually is most effective is through this lens of a loser, this idea that he is afraid he is weak, he has no power.

When I first saw that ad, my initial take was that one the best.

Republican lawmakers are working to defeat Trump because those ads are better just from a pure craftmanship point than any of the pro Trump ads I've seen, but also that I thought it was one of another one of these ads that the Republicans, like the Lincoln Project are doing.

They're designed almost entirely to get Trump to react so that he tweets and then they raise a bunch more money and they throw like and they throw him off his game, which I think has some modicum amount of value.

The way you say it, it actually serves probably two purposes. It probably drives Trump insane because he obviously knows he's weak and a loser does not like to be called a weak loser, but is influential with voters. Now, when you sort of think about the task for defeating Trump, it involves two things, right?

There are some group of voters who are soft trump that we need to get.

And then there are some group of people who did not vote in 2016 that Biden needs to persuade to get to him.

Do you think the weak loser message works best with both of those compared to the authoritarian message? Yeah, if you've decided you're going to talk about Trump, what I actually think works best is that you not talk about Trump. I think that endless discourse about Trump is how we got Trump.

I need to mention that to our podcast producers. So that's a large part of what we do every week.

We've rendered this person the storyline. We've rendered this person that the main character. And that is bullshit. I mean, we are living in a moment in which an incredible organized group of black leaders across key states are literally risking their lives to go and confront a brutal police state. And and Trump is the protagonist of our ads. I mean, honestly, I'm fucking kidding me. Like, there are actual heroes doing work to make America what it pretends to be and what it wants to be.

And what I have to believe, perhaps because I'm pathologically optimistic it has the opportunity to be and we're not talking about them. We're not putting them at the forefront of our and as many people have remarked. Right. Martin Luther King did not get famous for saying, I have a complaint, nor did he get famous for saying I'm a multiple with a list of policy proposals perhaps to actually be a dream.

You have to turn people out for something that is a very, very powerful message that I hope all of our all of our candidates, our campaigns here are not. Thank you so much for joining us. It was so much fun to talk to you. And hopefully we can talk again before this election's over. Awesome. Thank you.

Thanks to a lot for joining Dan, and I hope everyone has a happy and safe July 4th, wear that mask, stay home, you know, and we'll talk to you next week by everyone by.

Parts of America is a product of cricket media, the executive producer is Michael Martinez, our assistant producer is Jordan Waller. It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Soglin is our sound engineer, thanks to Tanya Nominator, Katie Lang, Roman Papadimitriou, Caroline Reston and Elisa Gutierrez for production support into our digital team, Alija Konar Melkonian, Elfriede and Milo Kim, who film and upload these episodes as videos every week.