From.

The New York Times, I'm Sabrinah Tavernizee, and this is The Daily.

This morning in Stepana, Kurt, the capital of Nagornokaribak, the government of Azerbaijan said it had mounted a counterterrorist operation, but the ethnic Armenia who live here saw it as an unprovoked and opportunistic attack.

In late September, one of the world's most intractable conflicts ended, causing tens of thousands of Armanians to flee their homes.

On the streets of Stefanikard, panic took over as mortars pounded its surroundings. Overwhelmingly, the Armerians of Nagurno-Karabak, now a defeated people have.

Decided.

It's safer to flee their homeland than live under Azerbaijan's rule.

Today, my colleague Andrew Higgins, on how that conflict started, why it lasted for more than 30 years, and what its end can tell us about the nature of seemingly insolvable disputes. It's Wednesday, November first. Andy, I want to start by breaking the third wall here to say you and I actually recorded a version of this episode. I was looking back at my calendar just now to see when we actually did that. It was October sixth, and the team had the episode ready to go for that Monday. But then that weekend, Hamas militants crossed into Israel and our attention shifted to another part of the world and we did not actually run the episode.

Yeah, exactly. And put what we were talking about in a slightly less important place.

However, I think what we were talking about is very instructive and important when it comes to conflict and the nature of conflict, how it begins, and most importantly, how it can end. So we're now returning to this topic because other than the struggle between Israel and the Palestinian territories, this conflict, the one we've recorded the episode about, the one between Azerbaijan and Armenia, was considered the most intractable conflict in the world. That is, up until about a month ago, when suddenly, almost out of the blue, it ended quickly and quite brutally. Let's talk about this conflict, Andy, how it became so intractable, how it ended, and what that tells us about the nature of conflict. Where does that story start?

What the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, like that between Israel and the Palestinians, is won over territory. Like Israel-Palestine, diplomats have been talking around and around this issue, how to solve it. They got absolutely nowhere. Multiple meetings, multiple summits, all failed. Then last month it was, in quotation marks, solved through a military assault, which obviously has maybe not implications, but echoes for Israel-Palestine. I mean, can the Israel-Palestine dispute over territory be solved by force?

Okay, so let's walk through the first part of that conflict between these two countries, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Start, Andy, back at the time when the Soviet Union was still alive. Take me through in very simple terms, the basics of it.

Yeah, it all starts in the waning years of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s. Remember, the Soviet Union was the largest land empire on earth, and it comprised 15 separate republics, each with its own people. But they were all Soviets. Two of these were Armenia and Azerbaijanis who lived side by side, not always harmoniously, but Soviet power, kept long historic grievances under wraps, kept them from basically attacking each other. Armenia was by some counts the oldest Christian civilization, surrounded on all sides by Muslim countries, to the west, by Turkey, and to the east, by Azerbaijan. And south by Iran. Then when the Soviet Union starts to fall apart under Mikhail Gorbachev, all these mountains and valleys of difference suddenly start coming to the surface.. Mikhail Gorbachev at this point trying to hold this vast country together, goes down there and pleads for them, both the Armenia and the Azerbaijanis to remember they are Soviet citizens first and foremost, and that they should put their differences aside and basically avoid open conflict..

Does that work?

No, it fails completely. These tensions are bubbling up steadily. In 1990, they erupt in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, where there is a large population of ethnic Americans. Suddenly the Azerbaijan-y Muslim population turn on their Christian neighbors, and in many cases, friends. There's a horrific pogrom in Baku in the early years of 1990, when Armenia are basically hunted through the streets and in some cases, killed by their neighbours. This sets the stage for even more violence. There was a small enclave of ethnic Armenia that remained within the newly formed republic, which became a state, a separate state of Azerbaijan. This place was called Nagarna, Karebach. This enclave was very, very important to the Armenia. It contained many of their oldest churches and was seen as the cradle of Armenian civilization. In one particularly bad incident in Jodjali, a town in Nugurna, Karebach, the Armenia, in retaliation for what's happened in Baku and elsewhere, turned on the Azerbaijanis. This leads to a massacre which leaves hundreds dead. This is probably the worst single massacre of civilians during the whole conflict. By 1993, and here we're two years after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, what had begun as a local dispute between two different peoples has become a full-scale war between two states, the newly declared states of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Okay, so this war between these two new countries has its front line in a place called Nagornakarabah. That place has lots of Armenia and includes many of their most cherished religious sites. But it sits within the territory of Azerbaijan. What did that war look like in its first phase, Andy?

At this stage, the two new countries are very unbalanced in terms of their strengths. Azerbaijan is a shambles. Political chaos, constant turmoil in Baku, the capital, and Armenia is more organised and has a far more disciplined, effective army and moves very quickly to basically destroy the Azerbaijan military. They take not only Noghornokarabach, this area of territory which is inhabited by ethnic Armenia, but a large chunk of territory between Noghornokarabach and Armenia proper. By 1994, when this war ends with a ceasefire, Armenia has not only Noghornokarabach, but a large, wide swath of Azerbaijan-y territory-territory.

What was the feeling among the Arminians at that point, Andy?

At this point, the Arminians are exaltants. They are euphoric at their victories over what an enemy they despise as weak and disorganised, many people I spoke to compare it to the feeling Israelis had after the 1967 war when they conquered Jerusalem. There was this idea that the Armeians were the Spartans of the region that they were all conquering and there was nothing anyone could do to stop them.

What about the Azaries, Andy?

Well, the mood in Azerbaijan, which I visited this time, was one of absolute despondency. The government was falling apart, and in 1993, it fell, bringing in a new leader, the former KGB chief of the region, who slowly, brutally began to put the house in order. By no means did the Azaries give up on what they had lost. In fact, this became a festering wound. For all leaders of Azerbaijan, since the loss of Nugon-Karabak, the only issue that would prove that they were successful was whether or not they got back Nugon-Karabak. It created this terrible, terrible, deep wound that course through Azerbaijan for decades.

Terrible wound for the Azaries. It's like a little piece of glass in their heel as they walk along. What about the outside world? How do people see this?

Well, the outside world looked at this and realised that this wound had to be healed.

Why did the world care about the wound?

Well, the Americans cared after the collapse of the Soviet Union because they needed and wanted to show that the end of communism, the end of dictatorship, the end of basically a police state did not mean just a wasteland of endless conflicts, that there was some hope to be had from the end of Communist Party rule. They were very determined to basically have a success, or at least not a total bloody failure in this part of the world. For the Russians, it was important because they considered this their turf. They saw themselves as the ultimate guardians of peace, and they wanted to show that they could bring about some peace. At the same time, both the Americans and the Russians at this time, unlike today, were working very closely together. In many ways, they were both on the same page. Diplomats who were involved at that time look back very fondly at those days when they said they had very good relations with our Russian and American colleagues, and they were working together to try and solve this problem. Not that they got anywhere, though.

Everybody had a stake in wanting this festering wound to be healed. What did they do?

Everyone also had a plan. They drew up roadmaps, came up with five-point plans, eight-point plans, got the leaders and diplomats of Azerbaijan and Armenia to sit down at various talks, roundtable talks, square table talks, and they all got nowhere. The most famous push in all these diplomatic efforts came in 2001 with George W. Bush, who had just come into the White House, and he was looking for what he thought might be a simple, easy diplomatic triumph.

Little did he know.

No, he bit off a lot more than he could chew. He and Colin Powell, Secretary of State at the time, organized this meeting in Key West, Florida. After months of preparation, they thought they might be able to solve the problem and finally cut this Gordian knot. That had tormented so many of their predecessors. They got the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to go to Key West. Yet again, the effort failed and left such a bitter taste in George Bush's mouth that he supposedly told AIDS, Please never mention the Gordian to me ever again.

Diplomacy was really no match for these underlying tensions, the right to the land, the language, the religion, and the conflict basically bumped along, but in a frozen form. But he was still seething underneath the surface, right? When did that start to change?

The conflict itself has not changed, but the world around it has completely changed after the Key West debacle. Azerbaijan, which in the early part of this dispute, was a shambolic mess, is now an organised basically police state with lots and lots of money coming in thanks to oil and gas, which it's developed largely with the help of Western companies. It's using a lot of this money to buy weapons. This military, which before was just laughed at by the Armenia, is now becoming a serious fighting force. At the same time, Armenia is stuck. Its politics is frozen and stagnant, and it's not a rich country. It's a small country, but it has nothing like oil or gas to sustain a major military buildup. It's falling behind, Azerbaijan, militarily.

Basically, they're trading places, right? Azerbaijan is rising economically and Armenia is largely stuck in place. How does that power shift change the weather in the war? What does it do to this frozen conflict?

Well, alongside this dramatic economic trading of places is a very serious hardening of regime in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, which is run at this point by the son of the previous leader who came to power with little experience, few of the connections of his father, and was basically fairly insecure. But he reaches out to ethnic nationalism as the way to consolidate his position. He starts stoking fairly vicious hatred of Armenia generally and of Armenia living in Nugurna, Karabak in particular.

Like, he's insecure. He needs a tool to prove to the people of Azerbaijan that he knows what he's doing and he's important and he's powerful, that they should listen to him. So he grabs the ethnic nationalist lever.

Yes, exactly. Ethnic nationalism in this part of the world and many other places is basically the first refuge of a political scoundrel. The new president started to use increasingly violent rhetoric, either himself or through his proxies and the media outlets he controlled, whose message was basically the only good Armenian is a dead Armenian. This culminated in 2004, when an Azerbaijan officer who had been sent to a NATO training exercise in Hungary, which was also being attended by Armenian military officers. One night, this Azerbaijan officer went out and bought an axe. This is in the capital of Hungary, Budapest, test. He went back to the dormitory, broke into the Armenian soldiers' room, and hacked him to death with this axe. God. But rather than spending life in prison, he's eventually extradicated back to Azerbaijan, where the authorities have promised Hungary that he will serve as sentence. But instead, as soon as he arrives back in Baku, the Azerbaijan capital, he's hailed as a conquering hero. The President of Azerbaijan promotes him to a higher officer, rank, gives him a new apartment, and this guy, a convicted murderer, becomes a national hero in Azerbaijan because he is killed an Armenian.

The President is clearly sending a message to his people, but also to Romanians here, right? That they will be dealt with extreme violence. He's congratulating that. So where does that sentiment, that ethnic, nationalist tool he's wielding lead?

This sentiment leads to a new war, ultimately. Over these years, Azerbaijan has been buying huge amounts of weapons from Israel, from Turkey, and other countries. At the end of this process, Azerbaijan has a formidable fighting force that Armenia simply cannot match. In 2020, after the failure of yet another round of peace talks and negotiations, Azerbaijan unleashes this military machine onto Nugurna, Karabah, or Azerbaijan, says its troops have begun entering the areas surrounding the disputed territory of Nogonokarabak. In the space of 44 days, they make mince meat of Armenia's far inferior military and take back much of the territory they lost in 1994, but they don't take Noghornokarabah because-What is it? Vladimir Putin of Russia interven.

Overseas tonight, Armenia and Azerbaijan brokered a peaceful deal that ended weeks of fighting and bloodshed.

But for many a fight… In an effort to assure both sides that this ceasefire will actually hold, he commits to send a Russian peacekeeping force of about 2,000 soldiers to police the arrangement. But this ceasefire leaves Nugunna, Karabak, a isolated island surrounded on all sides once again by Azerbaijan, and very, very vulnerable. The Armenia are terrified and they realize it's only a matter of time before Azerbaijanis take back the last bit of what they see as their rightful territory.

We'll be right back. So, Nagourna Karabach is surrounded, and the Armanians think it's only a matter of time before this little spot of land is overrun. What's the beginning of the end of this conflict?

The first very serious clouds on the horizon came in December last year when suddenly so-called youth activists from Azerbaijan start appearing on the only road connecting Armenia to the ethnic enclave.

Youth activists, like people carrying signs?

Yeah, they were self-declared patriots who wanted to recover what they considered their sacred land. This was clearly orchestrated by the governments in Azerbaijan. In April this year, the Azerbaijan military sets up a checkpoint on the road. The only way that Armenia can supply food, medicine, and weapons to Nagairna Karabah.

Right. This is a very important road because it's effectively the umbilical cord from Armenia to this enclave.

Exactly. So, Nagairna Karabah is totally isolated and the population is getting hungrier and weaker and effectively just waiting for the final blow to fall. At the end of September, the Azerbaijani military launches yet another attack. Within 24 hours, they have crushed the Armenian defenses on this territory. The Armenian government in the Gornikar-Karabah collapses. They have a president, they have a flag, they have a parliament, and it just dissolves. This conflict that had been going on for more than 30 years is over in a night.

In.

The wake of that, the population, ethnic, Armeian population of Noghon-Karabah begins to trickle out, and it begins slowly at first. But within the following days, this very thin trickle turns into a flood. Tens of thousands of people leaving each day. The horizon is just trucks, tractors, cars, people on foot, flooding down this single road from Naguna, Karabah, into Armenia proper. Left. So by the end of the lightning military campaign by Azerbaijan in September, 100,000 people have left, which is almost the entire population of Naguna, Karabah. Itwas in exodus. My colleague, Ivan Nachiparenko, and a local journalist, Nairi Abrahamian, went to the border to document this flight of Armenia. One of the most poignant stories they came across was a guy who'd been recording the struggle for this enclave for 30 years on his video camera. And in a few minutes, he decided he had to burn all his recordings from the First War onwards, like 100 assets. He said with tears in his eyes, he set fire to this whole collection. His history and this territory's history for the last 30-plus years went up in smoke.

Why had he burned them?

He was worried that if he had footage of soldiers fighting, which he did, he would be accused of being a spy, of being an Armenian agent, and that he would be prosecated. He said it 15 minutes took him to pack up everything, and that was the last thing he did.

Before leaving his house. God. It's like he's erasing his identity, his essence somehow.

Yeah, and that's what's happening in Nagona, Karabah. Now, the Armenian identity of Nagona, Karabah is being erased mostly through the flight of its people, fleeing what they fear will be a round of revenge killings by the Azerbaijanis. There's very little evidence that that actually happened. But in people's heads, there was this overpowering fear of the fate that they had awaited them if they stuck around. So whether intentional or not, it was an ethnic cleansing, more through fear than actual violence.

What changed between 2020 and now? I mean, as you said, Putin intervened in 2020 to save Nkarnakarabok for the Armanians to block it from a Zari invasion, effectively. What's different?

The big difference, of course, is that in 2020, when Putin invested a lot of time and effort into brokering a ceasefire, he was not engaged in Ukraine. Since February 24 last year, he has had other concerns. It's not only distracted his attention, it's distracted the attention of the Russian military, which is providing the peacekeeping forces on the ground around Nugurna, Karabah. Whereas when they were first sent in 2020, they took their duties relatively seriously. By the time these airy attack came this year, these peacekeeping troops, the best of them had been moved on to Ukraine. They were left with the skeletal crew and the skeletal crew that had no interest in engaging in another fight on the ground of Azerbaijan and Naguan Karabak. They just stood aside. That is one of the most extraordinary elements of this whole saga that the Russian military did nothing when the Azarpanians set up their military roadblock. The Azarpanians inferled a giant national flag within a few feet of the Russian soldiers who just watched on. They clearly had orders. Don't intervene. Just let them get on with it. I think Putin had just checked out. He had far more important things to deal with than the survival or basically extinction of the ethnic Armanian state in the Gornikarabah.

What about the rest of the world? There was a time, as we were talking about, when all of the big powers were focused on this conflict, in particular the Americans.

Yeah, this area was the focus of what became in the journalistic cliché, The Great Game. But by the time this latest conflict of a Gornikarabah-Karabach, the Americans were a much diminished force, at least in terms of their ambitions. I mean, the days of the 1990s, when Washington hoped that the former Soviet Union would become this big garden of blossoming democracy and economic prosperity. That was all gone. As soon as Gornikarabach fell, but only afterwards, the Biden administration rushed out senior administration officials to Armenia, but largely just to hold their hands and offer some cold comfort at their loss. There was no promise of additional aid beyond some humanitarian shipments. There was certainly no move to sanction as a by-John for having used military force to resolve a dispute that the US and the Europeans had always insisted must be resolved through diplomatic means. People have lost interest.

In the end, what finally finished this conflict wasn't some masterful diplomatic push. It was really about the Armanians coming to terms with the fact that they couldn't win, right? That they had lost the Russian backing. The world had moved on, didn't care about it anymore. So wars keep going when both sides know that they can win. And that wasn't the case here.

Yeah, the Armenian side recognized reluctantly, grudgingly, and with deep bitterness that they could not win militarily. That the Azerbaijan military was far superior and throwing Armenian troops into this fight would have been pointless and would have just left Armenia even more exhausted, more diminished than it was with the loss of Noghon-Karabah, Karabah.

Right. In the end, force was what ended it.

Yes, exactly. After decades of elaborate diplomatic formula meetings in expensive hotels from the Key West to Geneva to Moscow, to, and extraordinary diplomatic efforts to solve this thing, what ended it was pure brute force. The Azerbaijanis were more powerful than their Armanians, and they won.

What does this say about the role of diplomacy in these seemingly unsolvable conflicts?

Well, sadly, it shows diplomacy is very limited when two sides have irreconcilable demands. In this case for a piece of territory, a piece of land claimed by two people whose positions are basically unbudging. It's ours, now it's ours. This went on for 30 years. Now this conflict is over, has been declared over, has been forced to be over by military force. But clearly the issue is not solved. The danger here, without a diplomatic solution, is that there will be another eruption on other points of dispute between these two countries. They also claim other bits of land, each side. There are rumblings at the moment that Azerbaijan could be gearing up to strike into Armenia to seize another patch of territory.

It's a puzzle, right? The diplomacy didn't work, but without the diplomacy, the conflict continues.

Well, exactly. That's the underlying disputes, tensions, hatred even between these two countries have not gone away. They could well erupt, in the fairly near future into another armed confrontation, which will put diplomats back to the table, which will set people drawing up new plans. You have to hope that maybe this time they'll be a bit more successful.

Andy, thank you.

You're welcome.

We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. Israel hit a densely populated neighborhood in Northern Gaza on Tuesday, and what it said was an operation to kill Hamas militants there. The Israeli military said that its, quote, wide-scale airstrikes had killed a Hamas commander who had helped plan the October seventh attack on Israel. They said his battalion had taken over civilian buildings in the Jebelia neighborhood. A video from the scene, broadcast by the Reuters news agency, showed hundreds of people searching through the rubble of a collapsed multistory building. The Times reports that a doctor at a nearby hospital said that the facility was receiving hundreds of injured and that dozens were dead. Meanwhile, photos, satellite images, and videos verified by The New York Times showed formations of troops and armed vehicles approaching Casa City as Israel's military moved closer to Georgia's main population center. Today's episode was produced by Sidney Harper and Lindsay Garrison, with help from Alex Stern and Diana Winn. It was edited by Michael Benoît, contains original music by Marion Lozano and Pat McCusker, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsvork of Wonderly.

Special thanks to Alina Lobsina, Iván Neciparenko, and Nairi Abrahamian. That's it for The Daily. I'm Sabrina Tavernice. See you tomorrow.