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And by the way, Perry, you should get back to us on what your mom thinks, we're trying to create a parents podcast. We're trying to get Claire's parents on the podcast. I did hear of the head of the DNC.

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I did have a dinner conversation in which Kinsel culture was brought up, not by me, and questions were asked about it. So.

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Hello and welcome to this late night reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast. I'm Galen drunk, and we've just wrapped up the first night of the Republican National Convention. It was a mix of ardent Trump defenders. For example, his son and Kimberly Guilfoyle, his son's girlfriend, mixed in with some voices in the party that haven't been quite as enthusiastic about Trump. For example, the governor, Nikki Haley, Senator Tim Scott, that I also showed off some of the voices of color within the party.

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Again, for example, Haley and Scott with others, such as Kim Classic, who's running for Congress in Baltimore. So it was an interesting night. And here with me to break it down for you, our editor in chief, Nate Silver. Hey, Nate, how's it going? It's going well.

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How's it going for you, Galette? It's going pretty well.

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Happy to live in a mouse free house once again. Also here with us is senior politics writer Claire Malone. Hey, Claire Hagelin and also senior politics writer Perry Bacon Junior. Hey, Perry.

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Hi, Gila. Let's start off with perhaps the prime time hour of the evening, which was that 10 to 11 hour where we heard some of the more measured arguments for the president. Perhaps you could say, what did we make of, for example, Tim Scott speech and Nikki Haley's speech for the Republican Party that they see wasn't the Republican Party that exists in reality, it's the Republican Party of the dream of the post 2012 election plan, which is like, you know, a party that showcases diversity, a party that ostensibly reaches out to voters of color.

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It was kind of the sheen of we're doing conventional politics. Right, like part of the part of this GOP convention, Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle were doing real like sort of Trump World speak with Tim Scott and Nikki Haley were doing old school Republican talking. Right. And I think, you know, we can talk about this more in depth later about like who are those messages for? Are they for voters of color or are they for white suburban voters to make them feel like the party is less racist?

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But those to those two, you know, primetime voices of an Indian American woman and a black man were very notable.

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I think on the on night one, it's the first night of the convention when I saw the programming for the four nights, I thought this was the best night of the year because it has a speakers list that you also have Kimberly Guilfoyle and Donald Trump Jr. You have probably the two most prominent people that actually showed up at the convention and were invited are Haley and Scott that are not explicitly Trump loving Republicans. I thought it was reasonably effective and well put together.

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I think it says something that, like Trump wants to kind of get those rather good speakers out of the way, so to speak, on Monday in the last three nights are very Trump in, you know, the first hour, the first hour and a half. Actually, it was it didn't make the primetime network coverage was also more Trump in nature.

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So I know it was kind of a it's kind of a grab bag of themes tonight. Right. Diversity is one that came through more clearly, I guess.

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Right. But there's also a lot of rhetoric with the gun toting St. Louis couple, for example, that are at least on the verge of issuing some pretty, you know, what's the use? We all hate racially charged. Right. But like, you know, there is a lot of dog whistling in in that segment, for example, and they probably will be the rest of the week. We didn't hear very much about immigration in a negative way today.

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I'm sure we will on the final three nights of the convention. And so, I mean, conventions are often like this, right? You're trying to get out two or three or four different messages. And it may mean no one thing sticks, but like, it's kind of the way you play. You play politics. I'm curious. You said that when you looked at the rundown, you thought Monday was the best night. And because it featured those high profile, not necessarily Trump loving politicians.

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And when you say best, do you mean like most electorally advantageous to Trump in terms of making a message for the fall? Or what do you what do you mean?

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And why is that the most electorally advantageous best both in terms of having the most interesting content for media snobs like me to watch? And I think it's dangerous to kind of complete these two. And I think for reaching out to to swing voters. Right. Look, Trump is not in a position like, say, Barack Obama was in 2012 where Obama was just popular enough and the Democratic base is a little bit bigger than the Republican base. And in 2012, Obama had a pretty good map, the electoral college.

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Right. Obama was doing just well enough where he could rally the Democratic base. He actually lost independents to Mitt Romney in that election and he still won. Right. That will probably not work for Donald Trump. His base is not that. Large, even with his advantages in Electoral College, he needs a win back at the very least, at the very least, win back the kind of Republican that likes Nikki Haley and Tim Scott and is agnostic on Trump.

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He might not get the Trump hating Republicans, but the Trump you know, the mild disapproval, my old approval agnostic, he might get those people back. And having speakers like that would be part of what you'd want to do to persuade Republicans, hey, there are other things, GOP values in the line that we have to vote for, even though Trump can be a little bit you know, if you're a moderate Republican, maybe embarrassing to you at times, Perry did seem to you like the messages that Haley and Scott delivered would get those voters in the Trump column?

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I'm not sure, but I think it definitely came through.

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The tonight was kind of diversity night like you had in the first hour. You had a Georgia state representative, was a Democrat named Vernon Jones, who's a black state representative that supports Trump. You had Herschel Walker, the former NFL player, talk about, you know, supporting Trump. You had Nikki Haley, you had Tim Scott, and you had a bunch of speakers, also some white speakers who sort of talked about issues of school choice for minority communities, issues of like, you know, a lot of speakers basically say, look, the Republican Party is the best party for black and Latino voters.

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And the Democrats take you, take you for granted. That was what was said by maybe eight or nine speakers and that same message. And so I think that did kind of come through. I thought Tim Scott was the best person to deliver that message. His speech, I thought, was one of the best speeches of these five days of convention sort of bar, although that was a really well done speech by Tim Scott. Almost a good speech for him.

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If he's thinking about running for office himself for president or vice president later on, forget about his speeches in some ways, not really about Trump. In fact, it was much more optimistic version of the Republican Party, the kind of speech that you hear at conventions for up and coming people often. So I think tonight was really I did think some of the rhetoric was was really targeted and I think fairly effectively by Scott and Nikki Haley. And basically being like the Democrats say, the Republican Party ignores racial issues and ignores minorities.

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And if you're a sort of a white centrist voter who maybe voted for Romney in 2012, maybe voted for Trump in 16, and you don't mean you want your Republican on issues, but you don't want to support a party that is perceived as being racist? I think Tim Scott, Nikki Haley were trying to say, hey, this party has some good ish good policies on racial issues. And Tim Scott also highlighted some of Biden's kind of bad comments on racial issues and kind of listed them, listed them in some ways.

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I think that was probably a effective message to.

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Yeah, it was kind of it was traditionalism night. Right? Like just from the part with you, right? Well, in a sense of esthetically, it was very traditional. It was mostly a single podium, flags a lot of blonde women. In the first hour, Nikki Haley wore pink. Great. She wasn't wearing a power suit. She was wearing pink. And then I think substantively the message was kind of like humanizing Trump, a bunch of people saying he's not racist and then talking trying to pivot to and here's some of those, you know, GOP policies that we used to talk about a lot.

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And hey, by the way, the Democrats don't talk about policies that much either. So, like, it was kind of this a little bit of a faint to say, hey, this is actually kind of like there's still that normal DNA of the Republican Party that we have in here.

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But, yes, of course, Glenn, there are definitely like the St. Louis couple whose last name I forget, who were also, I will point out through the magic of television, you know, America was familiarized with them, as, you know, like wild eyed man's dwelling cowboy couple. And they were on television sitting in their beautiful mahogany room, you know, pin perfect in their pressed suits. So it was also this kind of like, we're not crazy racists.

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We are, you know, then they went on to have I mean, I would say their segment was the maybe the dog whistle silliest of any of the segments, because they talked about they talked about how don't let suburban neighbors.

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Yeah. And they had this whole thing about don't let low quality apartment buildings into your neighborhoods. I mean, it was basically saying don't let black people and brown people in your neighborhood anyway. So there were obviously elements of Trump ism, but just the the aesthetic kind of trying to funnel them into we're not racist was interesting. And there were those elements of traditional Republicanism.

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Yeah, the McCluskey's, I think is their name. They said that Democrats want to destroy the suburbs, which is perhaps an ironic argument in an era when Democrats have practically never done better in the suburbs and won the House based on their popularity in the suburbs, particularly well-educated, more affluent suburbs around places like Atlanta, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Orange County, etc.. So I want to cut right to the chase. In the messaging and the strategy of the night, it seemed like Democrats were speaking to Romney Clinton voters, at least at the end of their convention, much more than they were speaking to Obama Trump voters who might feel like the economic system is rigged and so on.

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Is it clear who exactly this convention is for so far? Is it overwhelmingly, like we mentioned, the tentative Trump voters, or is it in total so far more for the Obama Trump voters and just basically people who are interested in red meat in the party?

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All conventions try to do a little bit of both. Right. You have quite a bit of programming to fill. I thought Democrats were more clearly picked aside than usual, especially in Joe Biden's closing speech was a fairly explicit outreach to Republicans. Right. They played that video of Republicans that looked like every night or something. Right. The same people talking the same thing every night. You know, you had John Kasich featured somewhat prominently. Even then, there were plenty of base appealing elements as well.

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Right. So it's like maybe a maybe a 70 30 mix tonight was kind of split down the middle, I would say. I would think by the time you get to Thursday, it's going to drift more firmly to the base camp. I think the base camp, I mean, Trump over.

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We'll see if he wins the election, then all these people are wrong, including me. Right.

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I think in general, Trump or your base importance of.

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Well, I mean, I don't mean the forecast is wrong. I mean, the forecast might change anyway if Trump rebounds in the polls, which I'm not sure he will. But I mean, like, you know, I think that Trump vastly overrates how much you can do with his base alone. His base is not that large. He clearly disagrees. You know, tonight there is at least half of it was outreach toward other groups.

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I mean, that seems smart.

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If I were them, I would do the same thing for three more nights and try that. But they probably won't. So we'll see.

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I do think it was like, yes, a lot. I think some of it, like the Haley and the Scott, was was outreach to maybe those suburban Republicans who have strayed or who are kind of intrigued by the Kasich crossover to Biden. But then the other thing that sprung to mind with all of the talk about how what are the Georgia state rep say that that Democrats have like a plantation of the mind? There was a lot of this like I kept on thinking about in 2016.

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There were ads on black radio stations that were meant to depress black turnout. And listen, I don't know how many voters are watching or people in general are watching like the first hour of programming of the RNC necessarily. But I did have I did start to think about like a lot of the or Tim Scott talking about the crime bill and Biden, like there was a certain amount of hate, black voters maybe just don't vote for this guy, you know, like almost like a depressed, you know, depressive demographic groups turn out.

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If not, when if you can't win over their vote, depressed.

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Their vote, I thought was the most striking thing for the night for me in some ways was like Donald Trump in the White House talking to individual groups of citizens. The first group is like medical professionals who worked on covid recovery. The second group was hostages who who the immigration had gotten for other countries. So there was a real attempt to derail, even in Ronna McDaniel, the RNC chairman, statements to say Donald Trump is very kind. He cares about people, he cares about you.

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Donald Trump was trying to engage with them in this sort of like very personal way. So I thought a lot of the night was focused at kind of voters who are nervous about unaware of the middle, who they voted for in 2016. But I think voters in the middle who might be open to Trump's policies, but maybe think he's a meanie, I think there was definitely a focus on trying to say he's a nice guy, he cares about you.

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There was a lot of big, very big focus on the current situation is not as bad as you think it is, which was I would argue the video was full of misstatements on top of misstatements. But there was definitely a position that Trump, Rick Trump's efforts on covid are have been bad. They've read the polls to the RNC staff, to the polls, to they're trying to sort of build back him him back up in terms of I think there was an overall presentation idea tonight that trying to reframe Trump's character.

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I think in the same way that Joe Biden's convention was about, how nice of a guy Joe Biden is, does not attempt to make the they're going to try to make Trump seem as nice as Joe Biden. But there's definitely a attempt to make him seem to just show a sort of softer side of Donald Trump.

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Yeah, I think that's a good point. Right. And that when you look at their overall approval ratings right now, Trump is at about negative 12 and Biden is at maybe negative two, but has ticked up a bit in most recent polls after the Democratic National Convention. We know that in 2016, Trump won in part based on the fact that people who dislike both of them ended up voting. Both Clinton and Trump ended up voting for Trump. So part of Trump's equation is like he better get above that negative 12 or he's going to bring Biden down to him after last week, maybe it's a little bit harder to bring Biden down to a negative 12.

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And so they got to do some work to pull him up and make him seem like a good guy. I do want to ask about the red meat portion of the evening. But first, today's podcast is brought to you by Casper Mattress. Casper has done years of research, hundreds of test, thousands of iterations, and the result is the latest and dreamiest in sleep innovation. Introducing Kaspar's new mattresses, waking up with back pain, they have zoned support Kaspar's unique ergonomic system designed to keep your spine aligned when you sleep.

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That's upstart dotcom politics. Your loan amount will be determined based on your credit income and certain other information provided in your loan application. Not all applicants will qualify for the full amount. Again, that's upstart dotcom politics. So we've talked about the part of the night that appeals to maybe you're more marginal voter who is interested in the Republican Party, but hesitant about some of Trump's brand up until now. We also did, of course, hear from Kimberly Guilfoyle, who was giving a very impassioned speech.

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We sure did. We sure did. She was shouting an impassioned, impassioned we heard from Matt Gates. We heard Charlie Kirk open the night making an appeal, I guess, to young voters, but also very much based on this dark, gloomy picture of who the Democrats are, socialist, cancel culture, things like that. Who else did we hear from who? You know, we already mentioned the McCluskey's, but what did we make of all that?

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What's the goal there, I guess, to to bring the Democrats down? But is there anything smarter to say or.

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I think the real goal was the last week's convention was very much to disassociate Joe Biden from Bernie Sanders, Warren, the squad liberalism.

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And I think tonight was very much to put, like basically all of Tallahassee Coast's Nicole Hannah Jones, AOC, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, like every liberal person in the Democratic Party, but also sort of every liberal idea, reparations. You know, the founders are bad. Take Doug apartness that definitely the idea was to kind of put every controversial liberal idea, the kind of things Joe Biden actively opposes and kind of suggest he's for those things, or at least if he's president, AOC or Pelosi or whoever will force those those upon him.

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It was very much not about Joe Biden's policy ideas because Joe Biden has pulled his ideas and picks only popular ones and very much trying to find more unpopular things to graft on him.

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Yeah, I mean, it was striking that they had a segment in the middle where they basically just flashed these sort of dark and grainy images of Bernie Sanders and sort of flashed like socialism. And Bernie kind of looks like his eyes are popping a little bit. Lots of pictures of Éliane Omar, lots of pictures of AOC. In fact, there was that entire interstitial devoted to the response to AOC. Right. These these to where they sisters who were, you know, entrepreneurs who were kind of like were the answer to AOC.

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We don't want her to co-opt what it means to be a woman, a Hispanic woman, whatever. You know, there was this idea of let's push back against the socialist ideas. Like I mean, there's a reason why they they're constantly flashing her picture. She she stirs up great emotions. As a as a New York City resident and reader of its tabloids, I can tell you that this morning's New York Post had a still shot of AOC as its cover because she had done a video interview with Vogue where she shows her red lip routine while talking about like policy thing, you know, I mean, like innovative outreach.

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But The New York Post had made it this like, oh, she's sharing her makeup tips. So, like, she sells papers, people she sort of people glom onto it. So that felt like kind of your classic, like Fox News segment that that sort of socialism and IOC kind of vein when it comes to President Trump's message.

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For the past several years, it's been a lot based around draining the swamp, anti-establishment, et cetera. He's now the sitting president. He is using the White House and monuments in Washington, DC to host his convention. How did that all work out? Like, is he owning the current situation in American life? Is he trying to say that it's Biden's responsibility? Is he owning the 2019 version of American life? Like what parts of establishment are our current situation?

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Is he owning and what part does he rejected?

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They're not really owning the covid stuff. I don't think I'm not sure how you would, but the kind of argument that like, OK, Trump took decisive action by banning travel from China, isn't that great? Right now we have operation warp speed kind of ignores the part where one hundred and seventy thousand Americans have died so far and our performance is one of the worst in the world.

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Again, I'm not sure what they would say. I thought they could have, like, leaned a little bit more heavily into like, hey, things are actually improving now and there's a comeback. And I guess they're saying, like, the best is yet to come. But like, I do think some voters are going to be like, find that doesn't really ring true, right? I mean, again, I don't know what you do say because of how poorly coronaviruses has been handled by the White House and lots of other people.

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I mean, it's a real problem, right? It may be what ultimately causes Donald Trump to lose reelection, but they didn't have anything that, to my ear, sounded particularly. Smart or effective, again, with that said, I'm not sure what I would would have told them to do, you heard a couple of speakers even note that the economy was really strong until earlier this year. So you could tell that's what the convention was supposed to be about, economic growth.

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And a Culpepper's kept saying basically he's great on the economy except this covid thing. They can't quite say it that bluntly, but that's what they're trying to get, is give him a second term. The economy will get back to normal. And that's the kind of thing that he's great at, because part of the challenge is the things. The big other accomplishment, if you ask conservatives, is judges. But I don't really think the judges is an issue that moves people outside of the base really at all, because I think that's the one thing that you could say.

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Trump has done a great job in terms of cutting taxes, reducing regulations and appointing assertive judges. But they didn't, at least tonight, really want to sell those things. And my guess is this, because those are things that motivate kind of 10 percent of Republicans, but really not anybody else.

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There was one point which didn't some speaker like actually say the economy was going great until the Chinese simply literally said yes. Yes.

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And I mean, the irony is, like Trump's approval rating on the economy, approval rating, the economy is still pretty decent.

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It's like forty eight percent, which is a lot better than his approval overall. So, like, maybe it doesn't make sense, but for better or worse, people seem to be able to separate out covid from the economy is normal. And so it's probably not the worst thing for them to make. It helps that you have seen some bounce back in the past couple of months on some of these numbers.

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By the way, our model, one reason why our model is not as quite as down on Trump as some other models is that it actually assumes that because the economic recovery that's underway that it may not look so bad for Trump by by November. So he's kind of following the 538 model, I guess. And in talking it up, instead of making excuses, did you build a model?

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I built a model. I mean, the model also check out of builds itself, the model build itself really clear. I'm just there to chaperone it, make sure it doesn't make unwise decisions.

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KNAACK So a couple more themes from the events of the day that I want to touch on. One is that it seems like just about every speaker mentioned cancel culture in some form and essentially that the Democratic Party is not a party for freedom of ideas, for freedom of speech, thought, etc., and that they want to basically tear down our history, even some of the speakers who seemed a little more in the mainstream.

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Why was that? Is that like a cultural war issue that they feel like they can win on?

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And does the polling bear that I don't have those specific numbers of hands of someone does.

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Maybe they should cut me off right now.

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But yeah, I mean, I don't think anyone on either side of the aisle would be like, I love cancel culture except for maybe like TMZ or something. Right. Because that's that's good good grist for them. But I thought, you know, Nikki Haley was really you know, I think maybe that's what you're hinting at a little bit. Gailen, where Nikki Haley said, I want to be clear, America is not a racist country. And there was a teacher speaking in the first hour of programming who talked about how unions, which I took to be a stand in for liberals in general, are trying to teach your children an alternate history of America where America is bad.

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And, you know, on some level they're not wrong. Right. We're having an entire national conversation about how we've been denying how important racism and the foundations on which the country were built, a lot of which are really troubling. They haven't been taught to people. Right. So we're we're also having this kind of like you can't say anything that you want to say. People don't want to accept nuance. They don't want to hear past your for, you know, your first sentence.

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You want to give them a paragraph of explanation. They just want you to, you know, repeat the mantra.

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I think in twenty twelve in twenty sixteen. The phrase I think Ben Carson used was political correctness. I think cancel cultures, the new version of political correctness, which is just basically I conservatives, opposition to kind of liberal values on race, religion, identity and so on. Like the idea is my more conservative views on hot button issues are being canceled. And so rather than kind of discuss what those are sort of openly the ideas, the kind of, you know, say my views are being canceled.

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I think Haley, at times I think Haley's line that America is not racist, though, is really kind of getting to the center or really talking about here, which is the kind of the sort of, you know, like we've had Republican congressmen and the secretary of state discussed the 16 19 project The New York Times did about slavery. That's what we're talking about here is like. Some opposition to the Republican Party's idea that America's foundation is racist to some extent, so that's kind of what we're talking about here, but we're using code words to discuss it because it's challenging to sort of defend America's history in some ways on racial issues.

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So in ways, they're saying Democrats want you to feel bad about the country. We want you to feel good about the country. Is that what they're trying to break it down to?

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I think that's right. Yeah, I mean. I mean. Well, sure, yes. That's what I mean. Yes.

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I mean, I think one of the problems with cancer culture is that it's a very online argument and it's something that, like elites care about a lot.

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I am not sure that it's something that regular voters will care about. Nathaniel.

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I think it's filtered I think it's filtered through, though. Right. So elites have cared about it for a couple of years. But I do think that, like, you know, they may not know the online discourse however we want to put it, but I think that that single catchphrase Kinslow culture is making its way through. I mean, doesn't this convention kind of prove it or, you know, the no, because you're assuming these people are opposed to that understanding, public sentiment.

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And I don't know who they are. I mean, I think like using a phrase like politically correct would actually be more effective.

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Yes. That's more familiar to people. Right.

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I like that we're splitting hairs the semantically on those two.

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I mean, yeah, I look, I think Nikki Haley telling people that like, hey, you are not racist might sound reassuring to some, you know, suburban Republican leaning white people. I don't know. By the way, the polling on cancer culture, it's a tough issue to poll because it's true for all polling. But like, it's very, very sensitive to the way that you frame and phrase questions. So if you do the research, they probably would have focused, grouped or whatever, how different messages would resonate or not.

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I think just saying cancel culture might be a not terribly familiar phrase to some people.

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I found a poll actually from Politico and they used the dictionary definition of cancer culture, which is the practice of withdrawing support for or canceling public figures and companies after they have done or said something considered objectionable or offensive. And the result was. Twenty seven percent of voters said cancer culture had a somewhat positive or very positive impact on society. But almost half, 49 percent said it had a somewhat negative or very negative impact. So just to round that out, since we.

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That's one.

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That's right. OK, but like if you also say should we sanction or condemn racist speech or whatever. Right. And people will say, yes, we should sanction it. So I think it's a tricky issue to poll. I mean, I could kind of be persuaded that, like. There would be some fertile ground for the right Republican with the right messaging to to use it to his electoral advantage, I think whoever is nominated 2024 might do that.

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I think with Trump, I don't know if he is the right Republican for that. Right. You mean because people already think he's racist?

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Yes. I mean, half the electorate. Right. And people think that he kind of gets way out of line when he goes on in and talks or rambles about things and that he's not the most polite guy. So I'm not sure that he's the one to do it. I think kind of maybe. But coming from Nikki Haley or Tim Scott, it's more powerful, I suppose.

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So I think you could have get the same argument by saying using the phrase reparations commission instead of carnival culture, because people actually know what reparations are. And that would have like made and it's also reparations are also extremely unpopular. But divide the Democrats in a certain way that would have addressed this. Like, I don't actually think that survey in particular showed a ton of people don't know what cancer culture means. Everyone knows it. Reparations means it would have hit the same.

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I do think I do not think they pulled Kinsel culture. I think they read Twitter too much, too, and are like Nates that are consuming a discourse that is actually not effective. I don't think my mom knows what Cancela culture is. I'll ask her tomorrow, but I think it's like a very political term that's not really, you know, I'm not sure is in regular life the way reparations is, for example, which would have covered the same ground as actually I.

[00:31:39]

I think it's filtering down. Maybe not the phraseology, but the sentiment which people are smart enough to pick up through the the speeches, but perhaps as a sign that we are all elitists who read Twitter too much.

[00:31:50]

We spent an awfully long time talking about Cancela culture, which reminds me the one other thing I wanted to bring up is and by the way, parent, you should get back to us on what your mom thinks. We're trying to create a parents podcast. We're trying to get Claire's parents on the podcast. Well, I did I did have the DNC.

[00:32:07]

I did have a dinner conversation in which Kansa culture was brought up, not by me and questions were asked about it. So for what it's worth, maybe I maybe I need to show my biases here.

[00:32:20]

So let us now. But the last thing I wanted to talk about was Trump's speech in Charlotte today. He and the vice president showed up during the roll call and they both gave, quote unquote, surprise speeches. Trump talked for a long time about, you know, he said basically Democrats are trying to rig the election. They're using covid as an excuse and that voting by mail is fraudulent, etc., etc.. Of course, we know that for decades in both Democratic and Republican states, people have safely and effectively voted by mail.

[00:32:52]

And this is a conspiracy theory of the way. But why? What is Trump doing here? Does he just not think he's going to win? And he's setting the groundwork to contested or like, is there a strategy here? I think you have thoughts on this, but what is he doing?

[00:33:08]

I mean, at other points you had, you know, I think Ronna McDaniel trying to tell people that they should vote by mail.

[00:33:15]

So the message is a little confusing. I mean, look, I think there are a few things going on.

[00:33:20]

I think number one is that Trump's ego would have trouble handling a loss. So he has to kind of set himself up psychologically for like, oh, my God, what if the polls are right and I do lose? I cannot process that with myself. Right. I mean, there certainly is like the makings of a coherent strategy where if you were to cause a big partisan split and who votes by mail and then you were to find ways to prevent from accessing the mail about this being counted as people intended to have them counted, then that could shift things for sure.

[00:33:54]

Right. It's like a fairly coherent plan. Isn't actually what's happening at the USPS right now. I don't know.

[00:34:03]

You know, I think a lot of people are taking activities that are fairly normal and claiming they're extraordinary. Like I've seen this list going around of here are all the swing states where sorting Micheel sorting machines have been removed or decommissioned.

[00:34:19]

Now, if you look at the complete list, there are just as many non swing states with the same thing has happened in North Dakota or Rhode Island or whatever. Right. And so there's no relationship between the swing status of a state or how red or blue it is and whether these machines have been removed or not. I do think that, you know, there are attempts for the post office to cut corners now that may be disconnected from the pandemic, which may have some of the same effects on a minor scale.

[00:34:44]

Right. Whether it's intentional or not, I don't know. But I think people are confusing, like it's a plausible plan. And Trump has kind of said that he thinks that the election will be rigged by mail balloting. I think there's a disconnect between that and like are the actual things we're seeing reflective of any kind of effort to enact that plan? I don't know. I don't know about that.

[00:35:06]

I'm curious to see if the polling starts reflecting this like the polling. Up to now has been Democrats say they're much likely more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are. I'll be curious if the same in two weeks because Trump constantly announcing his vote by mail obstruction plan or his or his intentions there. I would assume a lot of Democrats don't want him to win again. I wonder if the number of Democrats who say they're going to vote in person early goes up and the number who is going to vote by mail changes?

[00:35:39]

I haven't seen that yet.

[00:35:40]

But this kind of thing I'm looking for, because you would think that the Democratic message and I'm already seeing some of Michelle Obama more encouraging, but I wonder if the groups sort of day to day do this stuff, actually start really hammering that, because I think Trump is in some ways, maybe if it's a nefarious strategy, he should probably stop announcing it daily, which is maybe evidence that it's not.

[00:36:02]

And it's more or not. That's kind of what I think. Yeah, exactly right. All right. Well, anybody have final thoughts as we wrap it up for the evening?

[00:36:11]

So my last thought was like last week, sometimes the biggest news was not at the convention. Maybe this isn't the biggest news, but the Conway family both leaving their jobs.

[00:36:24]

You know, George, working with the Lincoln Project, Kelly, and leaving the White House. And it sounds like Jerry Falwell Jr. resigned and resigned.

[00:36:32]

So, I mean, these are both sort of gossipy stories, but they actually also do reflect some important figures in the Republican Party and to some extent, some reporting people that it sort of helped Trump get here in the first place.

[00:36:44]

But it kind of Arnelle a little bit off the stage.

[00:36:47]

Interesting. I agree of interest just for another podcast or for me to select to you guys later, maybe because unscripted reality is going so poorly for Trump.

[00:37:00]

Maybe anything that's scripted is an improvement on that. You know what I mean? Anything you can have two hours and twenty five minutes of somewhat coherent messaging that some person thought about in advance.

[00:37:15]

Right.

[00:37:16]

That's better than, for example, the remarks, his impromptu remarks in his acceptance. I guess we were going to call it speech today. So, you know, maybe we'll see some improvement out of just kind of at least putting in the effort to to say what a normal party would say, along with a lot of things that they might not.

[00:37:36]

I want to ask you if Joe Biden has seen any thing in terms of a convention bounce yet, but one, I want to keep people in suspense. And, too, I know that we haven't gotten much data, so I'm going to ask you that later in the week. And so podcast listeners have something to tune back in for anyway. Wow. It looks like a soap opera, just like a soap opera. Thank you. Thank you, Galen.

[00:37:59]

Thank you. Thanks, Galen. And thank you, Perry. Thank you.

[00:38:04]

And I'll also mention that our colleagues over at ABC News are doing a daily podcast this week on both the Start Here podcast and the Powerhouse Politics podcast. So go check those out wherever you listen to your podcasts. And also check out the five thirty eight stories at five thirty eight dot com slash store. My name is Gail and Tony Chao is in the virtual control room. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast at five thirty eight dotcom. You can also of course treated us with questions or comments.

[00:38:32]

If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening and we'll see you soon. And also, don't forget to subscribe to five on YouTube. See?