Hey, Patrick Mahomes quarterback to the Kansas City Chiefs, and you're listening to the Fantasy Football podcast. Welcome to the Fantasy Football podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike, right. Welcome in. Oh, yeah, baby. They're getting you pumped, that got me pumped, I feel like he was really overreacting to the beginning of the show you got me. I thought it was terrible. You caught me Thursday, April 1st, the fantasy football podcast.
You got me Andy, Jason and Todd.
Oh, April Fools. Oh, we won't linger on the. That's.
Is that an April Fool's joke that you're really into the old names, which I will say this we won't linger on it.
I tweeted about April Fool's because it's stupid. Is the stupidest holiday incorrect gone. It is. It's so. But you guys are diametrically opposed. We are ok. Yeah, but Jason loves pranks. Jason loves like when people feed him dog food and he didn't know. Yeah. I thought it was ok but like pops and he runs out the room angry and then later he's like wow, that was really awesome. That's right. That's such a strange about face of reaction.
But anyways, we were talking about it in the office.
This is hilarious hijinx from Volkswagen that it leaked out a couple of days ago that they were going to go by Volkswagen because they're switching to all electric. Yeah. What a name. Oh, man. Turns out that was a hilarious April Fool's joke that they shot out on March 30th. What is happening, which is real. I mean, that is, Mike, you're not gonna be able to know handle that. No, I won't, because now where does it stop?
Oh, where 15 days in either direction. Where 15 days. Like, where does this stop? Like, where can I pull a hilarious gag and and then say it was April Fool's?
I'm going to tell you the truth. It should be 365. You should be able to do it whenever you want.
Yeah, that's going to be funny when we start pulling the spider pranks on you. Yeah, well, there are limitations.
I don't think there are, like you say, live cobra. OK, obviously you got a bit scared. You were of that cobra. It's not poisonous at all. De-brief seriously. You should go to.
Yeah. We have the overreaction after a big baby. It's a perfect timing because Jason would say Mike is overreacting to April Fools. Yes, sir. And this is one of my favorite episodes. This is we've each chosen a couple of things from the past year in fantasy football that we are warning you desperately not to overreact to national pastimes. For fantasy players, overreacting is one of them because it's the best. Oh, it absolutely is. And sometimes it's because we we like something that happened.
It may not be repeatable, but, hey, we'll take that to the next step.
It's going to get even better for that player I like will overreact to that degree or sometimes it's bad and we think something that's going to go wrong is just going to completely destroy a situation. You know, last year on this episode, I know one of mine was Mike Evans, not overreacting to losing Jameis Winston and that everything's going to be the end of the world. He's a good player. Yeah, I mean, the overreactions the thing is, is it's fun for sports fans to overreact.
Yeah. Like, it's fun for me personally to overreact to just things. And so we've got to we still want to win at fantasy football. We want to be the champion.
And so they don't overreact about these six things.
By the way, Mike, my you know, I dropped the guitar drop I put on the last episode. Yes. April Fool's joke. I figured. Fifteen days.
Hey, what a goof. What what a pistol. Ultimate draft. Kim Dotcom head over there. Check out the ultimate draft kit for twenty twenty one. We also have the UK plus which has the dynasty pass. You can get access to that content right now.
Speaking of the dynasty pass, we have just begun our second rookie mock draft. As soon as that is done, that will be up there.
I ended up with the last pick you did and it's not a snake because it's a rookie draft. It's not a snake. So it's really it's not a snake man.
But the unique plus for those of you that don't know or you've been with us for a long time, you've had the Utica, the Utica plus also has a new draft analyzer tool. So you're going to be able to input your team or import your team and get a player for player team based analysis in grade for your roster.
And this is going to be invaluable because people ask us every year the demand is high for validation or validate your direction or, you know, guidance like do you have a weakness on this team? And we're going to be able to tell you some of the weaknesses on your team, the strengths grade your team. And that's all going to be part of the unique plus as well at Ultimate Traffic.com.
I'm going to give everyone FS. Yeah, I mean, oh, you fell for it. Oh, is it an April Fools, guys? We shouldn't have started this person by myself. Let's do it. Buy or sell presented by pristine auction. What what repressed memory does, Mike? It's not like acting out against with April Fools, what happened to you, something when you were eight years old?
My hope is not a repressed memory at all where you promised a sibling by your parents and then it was like a fake pregnancy. They were like, nope, you're going to be not going to be a big brother, Mike. Nope.
It is simply the fact that when someone is not getting divorced, when someone expects me to tell them the truth and they're and they believe it and I'm like, oh, I got you. I was lying. I'm more on your side than I am Jason's, but, you know, different strokes for different folks. All right, I'll kick us off here. Yes. What do you know what we're talking about? Yeah, we're we're in Boston. Oh, did you think we're in a different segment?
I was just ready to kick ass off, man. All right. Kick kick us off here with DeAndre Swift. Are we buying or selling that he's going to be a top 15 back in twenty twenty one. He only played in 13 games with 20 20 and he was the RB 18. That was in his rookie year. They've talked about building them around him a little bit, but they also signed Jamal Williams. You know, if he takes a step forward and plays 16, is he going to land in the top 15?
He's obviously. You mean play 17?
Oh, that's right. Oh, man, it's all changing.
But, you know, he's he's obviously talented back. I think all three of us would say yes.
Firmly agree. He's he's a very good player. Right. The situation isn't perfect. So fantasy managers are going to have to decide on draft day, like, will he overcome his situation based on talent or not? And I think the the top 15 is the right barometer.
Yeah, I was going to say the top 15 is within his range of outcomes. No question. Do I think he'll get there? No, I don't. I will sell D'Andre Swift top fifteen running back.
I don't make a habit of betting on the running game in Detroit and a single talent coming out of that backfield and contributing for fantasy football. It hasn't happened very often. I don't think it makes it a higher probability of happening when you swap Matthew Stafford, who was able to at times put the team on his back and you saw it for Jared Goff. I know this team wants to run the football, but Jamaal Williams, that's a significant passing down addition to the team that I think will.
Prohibit DeAndre Swift from being a top 15 fantasy running back, so I will sell its stuff because it comes down to the passing where Matt Stafford historically throws to his running back a lot. This was this wasn't just scheme. This wasn't just DeAndre Swift. He throws it to the running back like Philip Rivers, you know that Matthew Stafford is going to give his running back a bunch of targets.
Jared Goff. Has I mean, we have a couple of years here where Todd Gurley from Jagoff, eighty seven targets, eighty one target. So it's not a we have some proof of concept of concept that Jared Goff has been a checkdown machine and that's what it comes down to. We've seen since in since 1990, only two rookie running backs have had forty five or more receptions and fewer than 14 games like it's he was out of control with his five receptions every single week.
Receptions, very quick path of the top 50.
And so top five, this is more of an ekler type of angle, maybe with with the passing game work propelling them. Should Ekler was able to do that right. Be a top right guy with what, one hundred carries but DeAndre so is going to get a lot of catches.
I agree with you that Jamaal Williams is an actual problem for fantasy, that Jamaal Williams is an excellent player as well. And take some of that worktop fifteen. I will buy because you're thinking. Like one essentially one running back per team, you know, can be a running back one, or is there running back one? Like how many how often do you see two running backs from a team being the top 15? So with half of the league.
I've just I would call it swift in my top 15. Yeah, I. Process of elimination. He certainly is talent wise. But I'm going to sell this. I don't believe for fantasy purposes that he finishes inside the top 15. They don't have an offensive line that I think is impressive. I don't think they're going to be in the game scripts to run the ball as much as they would prefer. I don't think the touchdown opportunities are going to be there.
So in the end, I think he's probably a solid running back to I will sell the top 15.
Like, do you like DeAndre Swift based on your buy more or less than Clyde Edwards, a player in twenty twenty one? I would take Clyde. So you think Clyde is a top guy. I do. OK, yes. That was buy or sell brought to you by our friends. A pristine auction user code Ballan, the pristine auction Dotcom Vollers, these fine gentlemen.
Thank you very much. I just had a birthday. You did? In a box. A little box came in the mail. It's a medium kind of medium sized box. That's why you've got to I knew it was the size of the box. I knew it was a helmet and it was a Justin Jefferson. Matt Vikings signed helmet. Where do you think we got it? It wasn't you didn't go get it from Justin himself?
No, that's too much work.
Christine and baby, we also have a Jefferson jersey on the wall today. So check it out. Our dotcom. Sorry, Jason, one more segment before you can get things started for us.
Some news. News & notes from around the league. All right, I'll kick us off here. The NFL has officially approved a 17th regular season game for the twenty 21 season.
Is that what it's like to not be hosting the show? You just sit here and listen for you. Yeah. And and then I react, though, right? That's right. What do you think? Well, 17 games.
Oh, we're going where are we going to play this? All right. Steelers have signed running back. Oh, what happened?
I didn't hit it. I was getting into I was going to say, though, a in April Fool's shtick that I have got behind was moving Jason over into the hosting chair. And thanks for bringing it up. Well, I just thought of it now. Yeah, that would have dangerous.
Yeah, I think it would have been fun.
A lot of extra lessons on that. We would have started with some different segments. I know that.
Cannibalize one year contract with the Steelers.
Yeah. I skip to the big news, though cannibalised, was so involved in Los Angeles last year. We do have some bigger news. Yes, Seahawks are giving Tyler Lockett a four year, 69 million dollar extension to nice 37 million guaranteed.
That's a lot of money we're talking, Nelson, lower levels of K'iche this off season, it's a lot more than Nelson. Yes, it is. It's but, you know, the free agent market, there wasn't really one. And so this actually does make some sense. You know, when you extend a guy now while the market is a little repressed, you can give him big money in this market and it will actually turn out to be good for your team as the salary cap goes up.
That's actually yeah, it's super smart of them because it's so foundational to their inconsistent passing game.
Yeah, that is well said. Yeah. Last year finishes the number nine overall fantasy wide receiver. A reminder. Forty fourth inconsistency. So never been a top 20 consistency player, always been an elite receiver in actuality, and so valuable for Russell Wilson in the team, you know, his absence would go a long way towards damaging fantasy value for Russell Wilson.
And now he's locked up and a phenomenal best ball asset as well, because he's he's been atop 15 wide receiver the last three seasons. You're going to get all of his big games and he won't be in your starting lineup for his duds in a basketball format. All right. One more piece of news. I'm going to call it Bycel with Bruce. All right. It's a it's a new segment I just started. It can't wait. Bruce Arians says a lot of things.
By the way. He also got himself tattooed. Yeah, all those are pretty nice. He finally came through. We've got the Tampa Bay Times with one of the things that he said, oh, OK, yeah, there you go. Here's three comments from him. OJ Howard should be ready to participate in the offseason program, the Achilles injury for Howard. Do you buy that? Yes, OK, yes. All right. He doesn't know who will be is twenty twenty one starting running back to you by yeah.
Oh I buy that one thousand percent. He doesn't know who is starting running back is going to be every single week of the week. All right.
So in that case, his last comment, Bycel with Bruce.
He expects Keyshawn Vaughn to have a breakout year in twenty twenty one. Do you buy that?
My heart chooses to believe this, but my brain says my heart wants to believe it.
No, I do not believe that at all. I think that is is obligatory fluff piece. Try to build the player up. And but in the end, I don't think you know David Johnson.
You're too with Bruce. Yeah, but David Johnson, you're one with Bruce Arians was awesome.
But I bet Kirschenbaum wanted to be awesome. That is true. And that's that's the problem is that I thought Khieu Samphan would be a solid player. So the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they they drafted him in the third round and then he could not get on the field, however, to. Try and spin something for von Hiwa, he was on the cover list, right? If I'm remembering what he did during the training camp, whatever it was, he was on the actual covid list.
So he had some things against him for his first year. It's not impossible for him to contribute to the team team, but are you signing up for it? It wasn't necessarily a good sign for sure. Depth chart clogger that Fournette is.
I mean, but at this but at the same time, you got you put your Super Bowl band back together and they did not pay Leonard Fournette much money at all. I think if I were the Buccaneers, that's an easy move to make. Just to bring him back. Yeah, even even if he doesn't play in, Vaughn takes a spot in his Ronald Jones and Keyshawn Vonne paying Fournette to be the third string running back when you know he can jump in and contribute to the team.
I think that was the wise move.
All right, Jason, I know you can't hold on any longer, so we'll get to the segment you're most excited about. Do what you all think I'm going to do, which is. All right, I'm going to kick us off here. Oh, my goodness. People are overreacting to Ezekiel Elliott's down year, and I totally understand we see these top flight running backs take a step down and then, poof, they're done. Todd Gurley was just on top of the world.
It was great. He takes a step down and then, poof, it's it's over. He's due in. People are starting to act like this mentally with Ezekiel Elliott. I was in a I was on the pod appearance, the wizarding world of fantasy football, and we did a four round mock draft. Ezekiel Elliott almost hit the second round of that mock draft. And I've seen him going behind Chubb, behind Ekler, behind J.T. He's usually right now about the running back eight.
I think it is a mistake to overreact from what happened last year to think that Ezekiel Elliott is done, that he's washed. Look, while Dak was there last year, he had five games with Dak. Ezekiel Elliott was the running back three. He was phenomenal. The first five weeks of the season. The offense was good. He had to top three weekly finishes in that stretch. And he's not an old elder statesman. I know it feels like it because he came into the league very, very young.
But he's he's younger than Aaron Jones.
That's crazy, right? It doesn't feel right. He's the exact same age as Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt. They're all within like a month or two of each other. I think Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott are three days apart. So they are they're the same age. This is not an old man. Here's what happened. Dak Prescott, your great quarterback, went down to injury, your offensive line dealt with injuries and your offense struggled.
Even your backup quarterback, Andy Dalton, missed a couple of games. It got rough. Then Zeke missed the game for the first time ever. And it just felt like, well, this is the beginning of the end.
And in that game, Tony Pollard had a breakout performance. Yeah. And that's why you think, OK, well, Pollard is going to get more involved. Zeke is older. A lot of wear on the on the tires. I don't believe it. I think that overreacting to what happened in a bad year for the Cowboys is a mistake. I believe that Ezekiel Elliott is firmly a top five back. He will be great for fantasy. He will play this whole season.
He is there. He is their guy. So I believe Zeke is still a phenomenal running back.
And if you're in a if you're in a dynasty league, I think you can you can make a move to get Zeke for a lot less. Are you letting him go, Brooks?
Don't you have Zeke? I do. But you're a Dallas fan. That doesn't weigh too heavily.
So what's interesting about the overreaction episode is that we get to other than the ones we have crafted, we get to react to your thoughts.
And I tried to go in as blind as I could with your guys is, you know.
Points here and the initial reaction to Zech is kind of fatigue, there's a level of fatigue that happens even though he's great, it always happens. And part of it is last year, part of it is, I guess, knowing what the ceiling probably is, which is a good ceiling, but it's just knowing what the ceiling is.
And what does that ceiling to you? That ceiling is a very consistent player, no break away plays. Hopefully you get in the red zone a lot double digit touchdown guy, but it's a volume play, top end of the season, not. Do you feel like top three has that ceiling has vanished for him?
I think it would be tough for Zeke. Yeah, I think top three I probably come out on, but top five I'm not out on. So it's right there. And all your points are very well received. I think it's it makes a lot of sense. And he's built like the kind of running back that has a long, sustained career. He is not C.J. Spiller who loses the wheels someday or he's a player that is going to get you chunks, not big time breakaway runs, but just give him the ball.
He gets better as the game goes on and his head gets bigger and bigger or whatever happens, he just beats up the defense and those kind of players.
That's the Emmitt Smith, you know, that just continues to give you season after season of productivity and win when these players just poof at the running back position, there's usually a sign a like Todd Gurley. We we knew about the knee issue. We knew that he was being sat and rested and he had this degenerative knee that was we coming into his career that he was going to have a problem. Right, with Eddie Lacy when he puft it was like he puffed up and then all of a sudden it's like there you can see it.
There was nothing to me on film that said Zeke is not a good back anymore.
Yeah. And the team is you know, it's a winnable division for them. I think they're going to be in in the thick of it. And, you know, nine and a half I think was the win total coming out of Vegas for Dallas. And they've got a lot of upside to that. So it makes sense. Do you mind if I go next, Mike? Is that going to bother you at all? Well, I mean, it's going to turn into a Dallas Cowboy show if I go next.
We don't want that. No, we'll we'll stay in division. No, no.
I'm going to talk to you about I'm going to do the dirty work up the dirty job on this show. I believe that you should not overreact to the four games of Jalen Hurts that you saw last year. And I want to warn the world about what can happen to Jalen Hurts and what I think will happen. My kids collect Pokemon cards and they catch them all, they love them, right? And when you buy a pack of Pokemon cards, there is infinite potential within that pack.
You do not know what's in it. You may pull the shiniest, hollow, whatever words they're telling me are the best cards you can get. That pack has infinite potential in his fantasy players. Our PAC always has the insert card, our PAC almost always has that elusive I'm the luckiest man alive situation inside of it, and I am very, very concerned that Jalen hurts when you open the package and you see what's inside is going to disappoint fantasy players.
Now, every one of these upside quarterbacks comes down to the dilemma of price, right? What are you going to end up paying right now? He's going is the QB nine around a six round pick? Well, you're out on Kubi, not if he's sitting there. Then the risk is is not high, it's not extremely high because maybe that reward is there as the Russian quarterback that that Jason wants him to be and and the potential for Jalen hurts.
However, we have an NFL draft coming up. And if you add a piece to the offense that that that unopened pack can wrap its mind around, Jalen hurts hype, can get a get out of control. And I feel like one of my gifts and curses on this show is smashing the hopes.
Of people who want to hype up quarterbacks on this show, last off season, it was Big Ben and Garder Minshew and specifically with Minshew. I have some of the same concerns that I have with Jalen Hurts. The team was not. They were committed enough to move down from six, they were committed enough to trade their franchise quarterback. Is that what you're calling Carson Wentz?
That's what he was. I don't think you've called him that on the show in a long, long time.
No, no, no. That's who he was to them. Not to me, but to them. Like they were ready to move on from Carson. Wentz That does not mean they're ready to move forward with Jalen Hurts forever because the fighting, the financial commitment to Jalen hurts is not the kind much like Gardner Minshew that would mean that you cannot move forward if something goes south. You have had offseason hype around players with running game potential in the past.
Daniel Jones got a lot of hype. He runs the ball a lot. He shows you that you can run the ball a lot and not be a great fantasy. Quarterback Cam Newton twelve times into the end zone last season. Good running quarterback finished at sixteen at the position Marcus Mariota. I remember the hype coming into the year, the amount of rushing efficiency that he had in the touchdowns. There is a negative outcome here for Herts. That's point one, that there is a possible negative outcome.
OK, if you look at what he did last year, you had. Welcome to the NFL, 18 rushing attempts to set the world on fire, his rushing attempts went down. Every single game you got game film on on Jalen hurts.
You also had completion percentages that declined 56 percent than fifty five and fifty four than thirty five percent in the final game. He is not a player that I trust the passing prowess of. And the one of the best points I think I have against Jalen hurts is how extremely happy were you with Lamar Jackson last year? He's an MVP who runs better than anybody in NFL history. Now, I don't think any of us think Jalen Hurts is a better runner.
No. Then Lamar Jama'a is a clear buzzer. But to answer your question. Thrilled. Well, you were because you trained and the champion don't submarine what the point is, you know how champ, champ, champ, people that drafted Lamar Jackson disappoint tens of middling outside the top 10 performances.
For Lamar, who's a better runner, there aren't past coaching options that get you enthusiastic in Philadelphia. And let me let me put a bow on it for you. Just this is just cursory.
Don't overreact to Jalen. Hurts is the next big thing. Here's his home schedule. OK, you already know the division he's in.
I think Philadelphia's dead last in that division. I firmly do. I've said that all off season. So this is the Garden Minshew problem. If you're not a great team, you're going to run into some issues. OK, he plays. He's got Washington at home, number one against in passing yards per game. You got San Francisco at home forthe Los Angeles. Fifth, you've got Dallas. They were sixth. You get to play the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers and then the chiefs at home, you get to play the Saints eighth against passing at home.
I mean, an improved Giants defense. OK, whatever.
What about against running quarterbacks, though?
I don't look, if you don't have both of those pieces, you're not getting that that quarterback from Jalen hurts. He's his the way the teams will get to play Jalen Hurts changed over the end of last season and they will change next year if he cannot throw the football. So I am just throwing out there the if this keeps creeping up, if this is the QB seven, the QB six, the QB five, everybody wants the PAC to come with the perfect card.
I'm just saying they can go sideways, that's all. I don't I think people are overreacting. I'm not necessarily talking to Jason.
I'm just I feel like you're talking to. I'm saying that people have overreacted with Jalen hurts. Is it my turn yet? So you have to either overreact after you react to react. All right. This is I saw this here. I knew before he put it in he was going to have a Jalen hurts, don't overreact. And to his credit, he was absolutely right on on Gardner. It Philadelphia is a terrible team that struggles and has a basement dwelling option in that division.
And then, yeah, it's probably not going to go well. I believe Jalen Hurts is is good. I think he will be a top quarterback. So I have a proposition that I don't see how you turn down here, Andy.
Oh ho ho ho ho. A water bet of a top eight quarterback.
I think that's I mean, he's quarterback now and you're saying this is there's some overreaction happening water, but I don't mind it. Let's do it. Yeah, definitely.
Definitely looking for the. Water, but I don't I don't want the water bit to submarine the message of the show, though, OK, where it's like this is not boom and bust. This is not like I'm picking a best season. I'm picking a disappointment proportional to overreaction. I think people are not seeing what's there in front of them. This was not a smash.
You know, draft this quarterback top of the board type of player.
There are a lot of holes in his game. And they came out in the completion percentage over the entirety of the year.
If that and I don't see the pieces around him that are going to make that change, especially in that division.
He certainly does not have a well are receiving corps right now. Jalen Reagor hasn't proven anything. They let Al Shango, they let Digex go. So it's Greg Ward and Jalen Reagor that does not inspire confidence. So we'll see. We'll see what happens, but. It's exciting, right? You got it. It's exciting to not know what's going to happen and sometimes we take that over. What's Resta shirt?
Just the the my only reaction to it is if people are still in the FPC, are taking him at QB nine, I would say that they are not overreacting to the possibility and the promise of Jalen hurts. So can I kind of speak to that? Sure. When you draft in those leagues, you are drafting for big money and big potential. And so you're not necessarily approaching it the way that a draft league might approach consistent play at the quarterback position you're looking at Jalen hurts and seeing prolific running numbers and saying, boy, if I catch a Lamar Jackson year with Jalen hurts, I win the entire at.
So I think that that threshold, like I would have liked to seen maybe what the temperature is like in redraft world, because if it's further down from six, there's not a lot to lose there. You just pivot. But you know, I don't know if it speaks to the same thing at a rate roughly. All right.
I'll go with my first one here. And what's interesting about this, this topic that I want to bring up is I I have two players because they're going back to back. I looked up some consensus rankings and I don't know which player is being overreacted to. All right. And I alluded to it. That is going to be a cowboy show. But Amari Cooper and Kathy Lam are being are being consensus ranked right next to each other.
I found that really fascinating. I did not know that till I saw this today, which is wild to me.
And I guess that the my overy what I think the overreaction is people bailing on Amari Cooper too long or too quick. And if you've listened to this show for any length of time, you know that if I have a chance to take a shot at Amari Cooper, I'm going to take it.
This is the life for my guy. We're seeing a pro, Amari Cooper. We're seeing maybe it's April 1st. So maybe it's an L.A. city limb. But that also sounds ridiculous because I love City. The player in the first four games similar to Zeke Amari Cooper with Dak Prescott was averaging thirteen targets a game. He was averaging nine receptions and one hundred yards per game. Now, granted, the Cowboys opening schedule was weird where they kept blowing leads and they would have to come back at Dak.
Prescott was putting up insane numbers and KD Lamb, to his credit in those first four games, was averaging five for seventy seven now, according to pro football. And those were his actual first four games.
Yeah, those were in the NFL, his actual first four games. According to pro football focus, Cedi Lamb took the highest percentage of his snaps in the slot of any wide receiver. One hundred and one of one hundred and nine targets of KD Lamb's targets were from the slot. Now, Cedi Lamb, it is an incredible player and you can be a productive fantasy player from this. If you are a full time slot player, it's not impossible, but it is very difficult if you are a full time slot player to really be a fantasy superstar, which is where it doesn't make sense to me that he's being drafted right next to Amari Cooper.
Interesting. The top ten here, the top ten slot snaps are wide receivers taking their snap from the slot, Juju Cedi Lamb, Greg Ward, Tyler Boyd, Cole Beasley, Anthony Miller, Keelan Cole, Larry Fitz, Tyler Lockett and Zach Pascal. There's not superstars, there are not a lot of superstar fantasy wide receivers sitting in that list, and Amari Cooper's not all just like Ziegel and Michael Gallop. Didn't we just have the stat where he gets the no snaps from the slot?
Exactly. Gallop is an outside wide receiver. Amari Cooper will move around, which and you want your you want your wide receivers honestly to move around. You want your you want Julio Jones to sometimes go into the slot. It it's part of the game, get a mismatch. But if you're there all the time, that means you're getting those you're getting a low average depth of target. It's just it's far more difficult. Amari Cooper will be twenty seven this year.
He is not at an age where he is going to be automatically surpassed by the new hotness who doesn't get to play on the outside. Exactly.
So do you know what the overreaction is here? No, I don't play. So I feel like the overreaction is overreacting to Chris Godwin and Calvin Ridley. These these players who they were the young hotness. They were on a team that already had a star and both of them overcame and became the number one for their team two years ago. Is Godwyn over Evans? Last year it was Ridley over Julio. And so now it's like, I want to get the next shot.
I want to have that next one. See, Liam is right there. I mean, he is he is unbelievable, is great. But I think you're right. If if we're just talking redraft here, dynasty, I would take KD Lamb ahead of Amari Cooper. That's fair. But in a redraft looking at this season, the most fantasy points, you've got to go with the primary first read Target, who plays on the outside, who's always been good in Amari Cooper, who also has one hundred million dollars to his name.
So like I think Amari Cooper and KD Lamb going right next to each other is is a little weird.
I think Tyler Lockett might be the the fair comp for KD lamb type of season this year. Like your ceiling for Cedi Lamb could be some explosive. You know, it's not like Ty Hilton, Tyreek Hill. They move into the slot, they run deep, they catch a touchdown. Lamb's going to do some of that.
Yes, but the Tyler Lockett what I wanted to stardom versus somebody more consistent. That's where that decision may be more difficult. Lockett was one of the names you brought up is frequently playing from the slot.
Yeah. So I, I think my official verdict is that people heard my guy, Amari Cooper.
That was the official verdict of the over and that is April Fools on me.
It is this I am I am getting myself. I think the reaction overreaction is that Amari Cooper is being drafted too low or is being ranked too low.
OK, well, look, Jason made the pie vomited in my mouth just now.
The new hotness is very attractive, especially when it works out with a consensus like Godwin. And it's it's the the girlfriend meme of old guy turning over the shoulder. Yeah.
And it was a tough year to watch Dallas without Dak on the offensive side of the ball. And you you look in like the Julio Calvin Ridley thing that would it's not one of the ones we're talking about today, but that's in the honorable mention is the Julio Jones has done. Calvin Ridley is all there is. Like Julio has potential to drop to the point where the reaction to last year is going to be. All right, Jason, I believe you are.
You're up, all right? And I read this one. Mm hmm. And I was shocked and then persuaded. All right. Well, I am telling everybody, the foot clan, especially people that have listen to the show and they're up to date on what has happened in Seattle to not overreact to the whole news about Seattle wanting to run the ball. They do. They want to run the ball.
They want to run the ball so desperately that they fired Brian Schottenheimer, who is like Mr. Run the Ball because he didn't want to run as much. Right. The whole let Russ Cook.
We saw this here. Bill Callahan turned the job down because they didn't they didn't want to run that much.
Yeah. You know, we all know the splits last year where Russell Wilson, MVP shoe in the first half of the year, throwing the ball left, right and center.
You know, the first eight weeks at at the break, at the halfway point in the season, you had Dick Metcalf as the wide receiver two and Tyler Lockett as the wide receiver for Russell Wilson on fire. They started to turn the ball over, lose games. Pete Carroll said, no, this isn't how we play football. We're going to change it. So they ran the ball more. They passed less is the is what people think happened. They fired Brian Schottenheimer and they brought in someone to really get back to defense and running the ball.
Here's what happened the second half of the season, this great Dick Metcalf, the number two overall, he was only the wide receiver.
Seventeen from week nine on disappointing Tyler Lockett. Even in his inconsistency, big games, bad games was the wide receiver twenty for the second half of the season. So these aren't great options. And I think people might try to overreact and take that second half stretch and say that that's the truth about D.K. Metcalf, that that's the truth about Russell Wilson, that that's the truth about Tyler Lockett. This is a team that's not going to throw the ball that much.
They're going to have, you know, their opportunity to get a big play over the, you know, over the top after the defenses has sucked in. But this is very similar to how I feel about last year with with Mike Evans being left for dead in a lot of places. Tyler Lockett is good. Say what you want about his consistency, but he's a great wide receiver. Seattle thinks that he is good, right? Well, I had this in here before the news came out that he was going to get a 69 million dollar extension.
You know, you look at the data of when Russell Wilson's targeting Tyler Lockett, he's basically a perfect quarterback. D.K. Metcalf is is far better than Tyler Lockett. These players are great and they will produce for fantasy football in weeks, 10 through 17. If you look at the difference of Russell Wilson, he went from throwing thirty seven pass attempts a game to only thirty three. This is not that big of a gap. What happened was he was really inefficient.
He wasn't very Russell Wilson just wasn't very good the second half of the year, which is kind of the opposite of his M.O. in years past, he ended in fire.
Right. And so, I mean, I think we would all bet, unfortunately, on Russell Wilson being good, getting the job done, winning ballgames like this. Unfortunate. I'm an Arizona Cardinals, OK? This is where it was coming from.
But the point is here, the talent will win out. And I think that if people are afraid of believing in these wide receivers as top options in Russell Wilson as a top quarterback and just looking at the second half of last year and the coaching change and saying they're not going to pass the ball a lot, I think they're going to miss out on really good fantasy options.
Yeah, it's that whole binary. Yes. No problem that you can have. I mean. I'm with you if if if Russell Wilson is still the quarterback on day one. All right, if he is, it's because he's been persuaded that this team is going to not completely muzzle what makes him great, which is throwing the football and being efficient. You can't expect him to not demand a trade out of there if they're going to take the ball out of his hands entirely.
There could be a very balanced offense. There could be an overreaction to the narrative. So I think that's a good point.
And it's still going to make it difficult to know which wide receiver to grab and in play. But that's been a problem for years, regardless of how pass centric they are.
All right, I've got my second overreaction, it's when we've talked about collaboratively, but it's a reminder it is to not overreact to the touchdown or outliers.
You're speaking my language over here big talking about math and statistics. Yeah, it's just one of those things that is easy to do. A couple of, like, kind of talking point players might be, you know, a couple of wide receivers, Davante Adams, Adam Thielen this past year, Devonta Adams. He's a touchdown scorer. Yes. Eighteen. OK, that is, that is abnormally high. His average was ten. That's great. But that is almost double his normal average at the wide receiver position over the last four years.
Adam Thielen average over the previous four years with six touchdowns he had fourteen. Don't forget Devonta Adams missed two games and eight touchdowns in fourteen games.
And both of those players were they had seven touchdowns inside the five yard line. That's the most of any wide receivers over the last five years. The average for that is like three point four. So those are a couple examples of players that far surpassed their averages at the touchdown position.
But I do have lists of the top ten players who have the highest percentage of their fantasy points associated to touchdowns.
Touchdowns are not predictable.
They fluctuate year to year. We've seen it.
Alvin Kamara, a year to year, even Davante Adams, even great players, left Bell in his prime was like some years. He'd have a ton of touchdowns, some years he wouldn't. Touchdowns are not guaranteed. So just to bring to light and I'm going to bring the names up in some are a little bit. Concerning and some of them aren't, but Adam Thielen is the number one, 38 percent of his fantasy points came from touchdowns. So that is that one jumps out is like, hey, be a little bit careful there.
Mike Evans. Thirty six percent. Not that surprising. Yeah, it makes double digit kind of guy. And he wasn't at an outlandish total that was outside of a career arc.
Devonta Adams, 35 percent. Again, you expect him to score touchdowns? AJ Brown No. 32 percent.
You know, it's not a high volume player in AJ Brown. So if he doesn't score, you could see some variability with AJ Brown, TYREEK Hill. Thirty one percent. You still can see variability with him. Hollywood.
Thirty one percent of his fantasy points to touchdowns that he will need it.
Yeah, and that was all like the last four or five games of kind of touchdowns every week. Yeah.
And then on the running back side just to bring some to light, Alvin Kamara is the number two highest percentage of fantasy points associated to touchdowns. Thirty seven percent. Nick Chubb. Thirty six percent. DeAndre Swift thirty six percent. That one's kind of interesting. Antonio Gibson, thirty five point eight percent.
Donnie Gibson scored a lot of touchdowns. The funny thing probably shouldn't.
The funny thing about Gibson, though, because I wanted to bring him up as an example of a concern. And we brought that number up a lot this offseason, it's like, oh, my gosh, we haven't touched you had like one hundred and something carries I mean, that was the one counterbalance. There was like, OK, you're crazy efficient, but you had a low amount of keris. Maybe you get some balance.
How I feel about AJ Brown as well. I think his touchdown rate will come down. Gibson's touchdown rate will definitely come down, but their utilization rate might go up. It's just to be irrelevant in the end. J.K. Dobbins, 33 percent of his fantasy points are connected to touchdowns. That is, you know, that jumps out a little bit to me because Mark Ingram had a big touchdown Dependent's a year. And that offense and, you know, you miss a few screen passes in the numbers change.
These next two are hilarious. Josh Jacobs and Kenyon Drake both had thirty three percent. Jacobs you forget he had I think, twelve touchdowns last year.
What on the ground really. Yeah. He's got like this cloud over him that makes it hard to like comprehend that he was like a top ten running back in fantasy and scored a lot and.
Yeah well rushing, well rushing touchdowns.
So the one that sticks out to me from this list, we talked about him earlier, but it's DeAndre Swift. I mean, if thirty six percent of his touch is fantasy, value came from touchdowns and then you go, I don't know how much how many touchdown opportunities here Detroit Lions are going to have.
Yeah, Swift had eight rushing touchdowns. Yeah. That's one hundred and thirteen carries. A little bit of worry there, so it's important to recognize those guys and maybe Brooks, who maybe we can tweet out those lists just so that people can reference them down the line. But it would be it's just one of those things you want to keep in mind.
You don't want to pay. Let's put it this way. Trading value.
You don't want to pay 18 touchdown value for Devonta Adams, even though he's Davante Adams. You don't want to pay, you know, whatever it was D'Andre Swift's eight touchdown value if you don't think the opportunity is going to be there.
So just be be careful because they fluctuate. Yeah, and I actually have a little bit of that built into my next overcaution, I don't even know what it is. I want to talk about last year's darling who turned into a bit of a disappointment. Clyde Edwards allare running back for the Kansas City Chiefs. And I just want to lay out, you know, what he did. There's some players being drafted ahead of him that I think it's a little a little egregious.
But it's a reminder to last year, Clyde had 11 hundred yards from scrimmage in 13 and a half games since 1990, rookie running backs who hit that threshold in fewer than 14 games, Marshawn Lev Bell, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs and now Clyde Edwards allare the season wasn't as catastrophic as people are making it out to be. So Clyde hit the eleven hundred yard mark, thirteen and a half games. Myles Sanders a thousand sixty four yards from scrimmage in twelve games.
My champion Antonio Gibson had fewer yards from scrimmage than Clyde Edwards earlier. He had a thousand and fourteen or eight thousand forty two yards in fourteen games. Here's the problem. Consensus ranks out there have Myles and Gibson being drafted as a running back, one as a running back one. Meanwhile, Clyde is being drafted as a middle tier running back to. Running backs that you think of as these are elite pass catching running backs, Aaron Jones, 63, targets, Dalvin Cook, 54 targets Clyde had.
That's Clyde Edwards had fifty five targets last year, and here's where things went Suwaidi suck. Here is where things went south. Guys right around him in in total touches. OK, Todd Gurley scored a touchdown on. He averaged twenty four touches per touchdown. Ronald Jones twenty seven touches per touchdown. Kareem Hunt twenty one. Clyde averaged a touchdown every forty three point four touches the average of top fifteen running backs. Their touch to touchdown ratio is twenty five and Clyde was at forty three.
He was sixteenth. That total touches by the way, for the running back position he had. He was snakebit with Touchdown Lucke. He still produced he before the injury. He was still, I believe, the running back sixteen or so. And I just, I think people are overreacting. The pendulum is swinging too far. I'm not saying that Clyde Edwards, a liar, is going to be a top five running back. I'm not saying it's it.
Looking back now, if you took him at one in your rookie draft and Jonathan, you passed on Taylor. Yeah, that sucks that with that now, I think was the wrong decision. But I don't think that we need to bury Clyde as being a middle tier, running back to while we're just full on locking in Myles Sanders as a running back one.
Yeah, it's interesting because I'm sitting here and I'm pondering why. There's some hesitation around Clyde, because the numbers that you're saying like that, especially that positive regression number, the 43, you know, the touchdown every forty three point four touches, that's asinine.
And I think what it is part of is the draft capital in the hype, and the big part of it was, do you believe in maybe, Jason, you can answer this in a completely neutral fashion. Do you believe the team wants to hand the keys to the backfield, to Clyde Edwards, a lair like Myles? He's the guy, Antonio Gibson, he's the guy. Something about Clyde season, I think, made us feel like I don't remember him taking over and I don't remember feeling like this team like Kareem Hunt took over.
I don't. Something was missing there for me saying. Well, I don't know what the future of Clyde is, does he does he does this role increase? Do we have any guarantee of that? Like, that's my reaction now. I don't know if it's an overreaction, but Jason, what do you think? Yeah, I mean, I. I was I was down on Clyde before the NFL draft last year. I so I was not thinking he was the best prospect ever.
Obviously he went in the first round and was disappointing for fantasy for where he was drafted. But when I watched the games last year and there was some infuriating utilization choices, I did feel like some of this is the fact that he is a rookie, you know, ahead of Pat Mahomes. I do think that he will be more involved this coming season than he was last year. So, you know, he had 181 carries. I expect that number to go well above two hundred this coming season.
Obviously, he'll have more games to do that. But with the touchdown regression paired with, I believe, more utilization in the offense. Yeah, I think he will I think he will go north. I think he's been under under drafted right now.
It's pretty difficult to find a situation you'd prefer more than Clyde on that offense. So and I added it wrong. He left one hundred yards in twelve and a half games. He missed three games, so he missed three and a half games and he was sixteenth in total touches at the running back position. So there's an opportunity there. There is still a large amount of opportunity for for Clyde to bounce back and finish as a as a low end running back one.
He's still on the highest powered offense. And there will be there will absolutely be maddening times like Andy Reid with his running backs. Even it was Jamaal Charles, I remember several times after I gave a press conference. Hey, Andy, why didn't Jamaal Charles touch the ball more? I wanted to I knew I should. My bad. I'm going to get him more involved, like it was your choice. So it's going to happen.
So let me let me ask you this, because it'll kind of connect the dots on a couple of these points on Overreaction episode. Michael Sanders, Philadelphia, I told you, I don't think that they're an upper echelon team, I think their a bottom third team. Let's just be generous there. I'm sorry, Philly fans.
I backed you up for two years about Carson Wentz. I predicted you to win a Super Bowl. I'm not. This isn't payback. It's just reality.
This could be good for you Philly fans this year. You guys won the Super Bowl. You come back from the future. That's true. It was the wrong alternate. Nineteen. They're all happy right now.
Yeah, they're thrilled. The Philly fans thrilled. That's how I associate them, but. Miles Sanders in a situation with Jalen Hurts or Clyde, who you said, you know, you said Miles is going to head on your board. Are you drafting Clyde ahead of Miles? I am. I had announced you would taken off for the day, but I had when I was researching for surprising. Yeah. A big slacker I had announced to the office.
I'm like, I'm done. I'm done with Myles Sanders. Oh, my. He absolutely can still be excellent for fantasy football, but I had it.
And aside from two two giant plays, which both were against both of those and both ruined My Frequency's, I'd be the champ without those plays. But go on.
You would be the champion had Myles Sanders not ripped off the huge. Was it the same against Pittsburgh? The Saints. Yeah. So the two best Rindy. All right, sorry, but I was like, if this is what if this is how people value Myles Sanders, I'm out. You can have him.
I'll take the L if you had a hard time. But I'm out here with Miles in. Yeah. From starting the year injured to, you know, having to count on a breakaway play other than. It was. It was not fun to have him on your roster last year. People are still in, but Jalen hurts, fixes all, yeah, well, we'll see what happens. Apparently we're water betting on Jalen hurts already.
I'm not surprised about that.
I'm not I would be surprised if that wasn't the second or third one we've done. I don't even know how. I can't wait for for you both to forget that that happened. And before the season, it's going to be Jalen Hurts top five quarterback from. Oh, just a different back is just going to keep moving. He's going to move it up better than seven. We each water each other.
If you've not if you're new to the show. I mean, it's not the worst time to to bring this up. It's it's March 31st if you're brand new to the show or April 1st.
He was just. He was getting them. Yeah. April 1st, April Fools.
We haven't we don't talk about it a lot. But if you hear us make a waterbed on the show that ties in, that goes way back.
So the origin story there is we have an app that we made and that even goes further back to when we used to play ping pong and foosball. And we would just if you shot somebody out, you got watered and you spin the wheel and there's a different way that you get a cup of water poured on you in a humiliating fashion. And so there is a free app out there.
I think it's still out there. Wheel of water dotcom.
There's a website as well. And you can go grab that app and make bets with your friends. That's what we do. And that's what Jason brought up with Mr. Jalen Hurts.
So. All right.
That'll do it for today's episode of the show.
We'd love to hear your feedback on Twitter at the Fallen Back with another episode very soon, as well as a bonus episode to join the full dotcom goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy football podcast, join our fantasy football community on Join the Dotcom and follow us on Twitter at the footballers.