Foot clan, it's always a good time to avoid the hustle and bustle at the grocery store and Hello Fresh delivers everything you need to get dinner on the table right to your door, contact free, go to hello fresh dotcom, slash 10 footballers and use the code 10 footballers for ten free meals, including free shipping. Welcome to the Fantasy Football podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike, right. Welcome in. The fantasy football is back with you Thursday, February 25th.
All right, gentlemen, there is a lot on the plate today and plenty that I don't necessarily want to remember from 20/20.
However, however. There are some things well, we're not remembering the the bottom 10 things to remember from 20, 20 here, this is the top 10 things to remember. And the best part about it, the bottom 10 is bad. The bottom is not great. It was not great. But the best part is that this is top 10 things to remember for fantasy football. So no matter what, it's going to be fun, because I realized, I think today that I love to talk about fantasy football.
You just realize that.
Yeah, and I was like, big revelation, epiphany moments like me. And I love talking about fantasy football.
Thousand plus shows that that's what it took. We got here. He's this way in, but we're dragging him along this whole like a pair of pants.
I'm on board now, though, fellas. That's good.
And we have we've done this show each and every year. We you know, the season is long and full of terrors. There's a lot that happens. There is a lot that goes on that we need to remember. And in recency bias in the way your season ended up and the way players played at the end or the beginning, you know, there's a lot that we learn each and every fantasy season. So we like to have these shows to gather that information together.
Each of us brings three different things to remember from the past year lessons we've individually learned, things we want to apply to twenty, twenty one to make us better fantasy football players, to make you a better fantasy football player. So that's what we're getting into today. Very excited about that. I'm going to be honest with you. I didn't look at your guys. Oh, I don't test it. There's a chance I copied it. I don't I mean, I wouldn't even know.
Maybe it's like eight things to remember, but two of us agree on them.
I do not know. So I'm looking forward to hearing from each of you what you guys have on the Ten Things to Remember list both tours. Go ahead, Jason. Two of mine were you know, we talk about the reason we do the shows because it's so quick and easy to forget the lessons we learned. And we always think like, oh, I'm not I'm not going to repeat this mistake again. I'm not like, I will remember this.
And then after doing this show for years, every time, you know, in the beginning, it was like, OK, we're going to come up with the things we want to remember. And I'm like, man, I knew I had so many, but what were they?
And over the last couple of years, I've started actually like when I learn a lesson in mid season or, you know, towards the end of the season, I actually, you know, in my own little fantasy journal, I'm dropping these things down like I want to remember this. So this show helps amplify that. It's literally the lessons that I personally want to remember for the next year. And two of mine were were things that I wrote down.
And I'm so happy I did because I probably would not have remembered. And hopefully this this becomes a prescription for me because, like, if I don't say it on the show, I probably will forget it again.
Yeah. Especially the older you get. I mean. Yeah, mean, I say you're getting up there and I hope it's more of a lock and key diary situation where you run into the room, you pull it out from under the mattress, you look for the key, you find the key, you open it up and you scribble it in there.
It's actually one of those those voice activated ones where, like, the little brother tries to break in. Not today, JR.
And your reveal those secrets on today's show? Well, just a few of them.
And Mike has stuff to say, too, I mean, Mike, you have a good memory, though I do have a good memory, so I know Dirie necessary big news, big, big news.
This is the last show before March 1st, which means this is my last chance.
My birthday's coming up, everybody. Oh, great. Get your gifts in the mail.
Gosh dang it. We got to buy him something again every year. Going to be your birthday boy again.
Now, we did buy me a present, I don't know, three, four years ago, we got him one of those like something on a Kickstarter. And it was supposed to deliver like in three months. And he is still waiting.
I think we're on for years and I think in four years, which means if it comes soon enough, that will be this year's birthday. I feel like almost putting them on blast. Maybe that's the key.
But I carry advertising and they don't deserve anything. OK, well, I won't do that. But Mike, it's in the mail. It'll be here soon.
Hey, go over the ultimate draft gay.com right now. Like I said, this is our last show before March 1st.
March 1st is your last chance to be entered to win the very first listener league spot for twenty twenty one. How do you enter while you preorder the Utech right now? Because you get the most amount. What you get the biggest discount, you get fifteen dollars worth of gift cards, you get early access to stuff if you get the UK plus you get the dynasty pass and you get a chance to win a listener league spot.
So this is a very important yeah. Oh yeah. Yeah. The people love it. Yeah.
The socially distant studio audience really enjoying that promo. Ultimate Traffic.com though. Check that out. It is going to be very exciting to give that spot away.
And and I would just add to that, you know, we're making a big deal of the listener spot that we're giving away. And that's just a cool giveaway for someone that is an early adopter of the ultimate draft. Kiip, don't forget that the ultimate draft is actually freaking outstanding. It's it's going to help you win in your leagues and win a championship. So it's well worth it.
All right. Let's go out and do some bycel. Buy or sell presented by pristine auction. Well, today's buy or sell is a topic I really don't even enjoy talking about at all. So really no, I'm tired of talking about this.
I think I am I'm worn out talking about this. So let's you guys can rejuvenate me maybe with some optimism by yourself. Josh Jacobs having more than thirty five receptions in this upcoming twenty twenty one season. Josh Jacobs in reception speculation is, well, it's just always going to be there, he came into the NFL with a very small sample sizes of between the tackles runner and a producer on the ground and a big sample size of being a great pass catcher that Jon Gruden doesn't necessarily want to use that way all the time.
In twenty nineteen, he had twenty receptions and thirteen games last year. I think we shot for the thirty five mark. He fell short thirty three in fifteen games he finishes the RB eight. So why do I feel so bad about Josh Jacobs if he goes from RB eighteen to RB eight.
I don't think there's a lot of his, a lot of his production came in some big games and you know, I think it was more about a little bit, you know, a lack of consistency and also just a disappointment off of week one, because even though he was good throughout the majority of the week, one was he was he was the running back one. So you start twenty twenty as the best running back. He was your my guy.
So you're on cloud nine has, you know, a hundred total yards, has three touchdowns, had had the receptions. Right. Six targets, four receptions. You're on fire, you're ready to go.
And then it was like OK, well this was, this was what could be. But it's not what we're going to do with them. So that's why he was disappointing. As far as the receptions, though, if you got to buy or sell thirty five, he was already on pace for more.
And if you look at, you know, I think the issue here, if you're going to sell is injuries. He's sure he has had a difficult time really staying healthy. Even when he's playing, he's playing through some of these injuries that are clearly having an effect on his utilization. His usage is snap percentage. So I'm going to buy because I think he's clearly got the talent for I believe they want to do it. And I'm not going to I'm not going to just project injury for a player who has, to this point played through most of the injuries.
So it's not one of those, you know, one of those guys who just bows out at every little thing. So I think, you know, if he plays sixteen, he'll beat that mark.
And thirty five is not a huge mark. I'm looking at it right now. We had twenty three running backs that hit that mark, including James Counter, Chris Carson, Devin Singletary. So, I mean, it's just barely over two receptions a game. Grouted Come on man, stop being a curmudgeon and pass Josh Jacobs the ball a little bit more. You, you told us all about how you wanted to get him the the ball in the receiving game last year and you give us thirty three receptions is diabolical, the things that you did to us last offseason.
And this is why I am tired of talking about it, because we said all of that stuff and we still didn't get the full payoff. That being said, you make some good points, Jason. I should be more optimistic here. I will buy thirty five. I think that that's doable. I'm not going to presume injury, like you said, over the last decade. Forty seven running backs have finished with at least a thousand rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns and thirty five receptions.
They've all been RB ones. So he obviously proved last year, yes, he had a great week. One, you still have to have about fourteen other good weeks to end up as the RB eight and he got there, so. Seems like he's going to be along with Derek Carr again next year. That's the way he's looking. Yeah, I'll buy it because I don't think thirty five is very much all right.
That was buy or sell brought to you by our dear friends at pristine auction, pristine auction dotcom. Use that code Bala's bars and you get a ten dollar credit when you use the code, you do need to use kind of a sultry voice when you enter it when typing.
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No. Are you Adam Lefko? How many stop signs do you see?
All right, Christine.
Action, Dotcom. Use that code. Let's get into the news. News & notes from around the league. Now, to be fair to us, I've been doing that Bala's echo bit, I've been doing that way before. I even knew who this Adam Lefko guy was. So you've changed a little bit. It is now.
It's got a different name to it now.
Yeah. Used to be like ballers. Now it's like ballers. Yeah.
Yeah, it's the. Yeah. Totally leafcutter I feel like would be Batman all of a sudden. All right. News & notes. Big bands, player Reps of the Steelers have confirmed they want him back for twenty twenty one. He sat down with the team. They're going to work on the contract. He'll be back. I mean, that's that's the message we get to be that we had his full statement from the team acknowledging all these things.
But at the end of the statement was, now we've got to fix the contract. So, yeah.
And they're going to the. Did you see Juju say he desperately wants to be in Pittsburgh? He wants to retire there. He wants to have his legacy there. I just don't know how they afford him. I don't think they want to afford it, right, yeah, it seems like he. That's really nice that you want to do that. Do you do, um, will you take three million? No.
Yeah, maybe Big Ben can. He said he didn't need to get paid. Maybe he can donate, uh, towards the cost. We'll see. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reporting. The Cowboys want to extend Dak. That's the news.
Yeah, I know, but they want to do it right now.
Well, he can play out twenty twenty one with a fully guaranteed thirty seven point seven million under his second consecutive franchise tag. Or they can extend him and the deadline's March 9th.
Or they can or they and they can tag him while they work on an extension to.
Did you guys realize the franchise tag window is now open so players can be tagged as of today going forward through March 9th? All right.
Some free agency news. Chris Godwin says he wants to remain in Tampa, but he wants to get paid to do so, doesn't want to give him a hometown discount. Top ten wide receiver is getting paid 16 million plus per year right now, according to Sport Track. He seems like a great franchise tag candidate, Yako running back franchise to win that thing is brutal. As for the player, yes, I mean, imagine being that player, you you have earned yourself a multi year contract extension to be one of the highest paid wide receivers in the league.
This is how it works. You prove it. And the that money keeps going up and up and up. And then the teams like, well, hold on, we'll give you a lot of money, but it's only for one year. Don't get hurt. I think you're right. I think you're right. It is a little rough. Yeah. I mean, you do get paid, but only for one year. You've got to prove it again and you've got to stay healthy.
And whatever you do, don't get older. Yeah. Just whatever you do, don't get older.
Exactly. There is a seems like a high probability that some of these guys are going to have a down year. God could get hurt.
And all those things that you said, Kenny Golladay, a candidate for the franchise tag, would that be under the principle of trying to trade him for a draft pick or just give Jared Goff a weapon possible?
The trade speculation makes the most sense to me. You're they've acknowledged that they are rebuilding. They've they've burnt to the ground now. They need the ashes to rise like the Phoenix. Why would you? Why why would you franchise tag Kenny Golladay, pay them all that money for one year when you could get another piece to try and rebuild? It just it doesn't make sense to when you have the foundation that they have, you don't go and get the wide receivers you you need to build at other positions of need.
Yeah. And you could always spend a lot less to bring in a one year. Right. Wide receiver kind of placeholder if he needed to there 20 million over the cap after taking on golf's contract. So I don't think he's hanging around. I don't see him as a candidate for the franchise tag, honestly, but Aaron Jones could get up to 15 million a year in free agency. This is reported speculation from the athletic. Um, there's only three that get paid that right now seems Kamara is going to be tough with the salary cap going down.
He's going to make a lot of money, but I don't know if he'll get up to 15. The there are is the the interest of the dolphins. The Dolphins would be an incredible landing spot for Aaron Jones. He would see a ton of volume. The the team would the offense would be built around him. So if you've if you've gotten Jones on your dinosaur team, you better be cross your fingers for that one. Jason Aaron goes to Miami or Aaron Jones back to Green Bay, which is better for you?
I would I would prefer him in Miami. You have fewer scoring opportunities. So even if his total fantasy points at the end of the season happens to be slightly lower or the same, I feel like the way they come is going to be far more consistent. You're going to have every single game. He is, you know, the the centerpiece of the offense, at least the complete centerpiece of the running game. Whereas, you know, you look the year before last when he was the running back to but was not even a top twelve guy in consistency.
That's what can happen when you're in this three headed time-Share. You know, Jamaal Williams, I expect him to resign with Green Bay. They've got AJ Dillon there. So the touchdown opportunity will be less in Miami. But I still think that, you know, you saw what they did with Myles Gaskin and Akhmad. And, you know, if they took Aaron Jones and gave him fifteen million a year, he'll be one of my absolute favorite running backs.
It's interesting. I actually would go the other direction myself. I oh, you're wrong.
Oh, well, you know what? That makes sense. Know the warning. The warning bells are going off for me. Get paid. Ben, historically, what, like a 200 to 220 type of Kerry guy on a great offense, high efficiency. This is like I've used the example before. It's reminded me of the, you know, Miami Lamar Miller. Two hundred carries five and a half a carry. You go to an offense where you're going to get the ball more.
You're not going to score sixteen touchdowns like you did in twenty nineteen. You might not get to nine like you did last year. Um, and then you have I mean that's a lot of volume in the passing game that is all of a sudden going to be translating to a I mean forty nine receptions in twenty, nineteen, forty seven in twenty twenty. I think I'd be slightly less bullish on him in Miami personally, but I know that's a destination people want a running back to go to.
I just not sure what it's going to represent next year. I'm with Jason, I would be very excited and speaking of Dolphins' news, we do have a verified ESPN account tweeting Deshaun Watson would approve a trade to the Jets, the Dolphins in the Panthers. There could be more teams we don't know about, but those three have been confirmed. And which of those teams will make you the most excited for Watson? And we're all excited for Watson. I get that.
But which of these teams would you be most excited about?
Carolina. Carolina had they've got the receivers that give me confidence and they have a head coach and flashes from last year seems to be coming back. Like if he went there and they don't lose the AMC, I think that would make me the most excited of our destination. Well, Jason, where it would make me the most excited, it's actually not one of those three, but it is technically the second highest Vegas odds on favorite right now.
So he hasn't confirmed that he would approve it. But the Broncos are are coming after him with a lot of heat. And that's one of those situations where we've talked a lot about this. Jerry Judy related. It's Courtland, Sutton, Jerry, Judy, and no offense, all three. It's it's I like the players and I don't want any of them on my fantasy rosters next year. But if all of a sudden they inherit Deshaun Watson, I'm like, let's let these talented players be relevant for fantasy and give me confidence in them.
I'd be all about that life.
Well, we're going to find out what happens, it's going to be a very, you know, impactful piece of news for all the peripheral pieces, you know, from if he leaves Houston.
We'll find out, we'll find out what happens to more Robbie Anderson. Oh, baby, there's no player this offseason that's going to affect more other players because you had Stafford change teams and golf changed to Carson wants to change teams that they didn't really affect that many players all that drastically. But the new destination, those wide receivers and pass catchers will be enormously impacted. And then conversely, you're still impacting, you know, Brandin Cooks, who's a great fantasy option right now, becomes far less relevant, or David Johnson.
So, yeah, he's going to be a monumental piece of news before we jump into the top ten things, not the bottom 10, the top 10 things, top ten things to remember. We want to think that a sponsor can't boom, boom, boom.
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Don't forget to remember these things. That's good advice. You don't want to forget to remember them, you know what I mean? If you or do you? I can't remember. Thank you for the set up there.
Ten things to remember from 20/20. Mike is going to kick it off.
All right, Battan, I forgot that was happening, but here we are. This happened to me this year and I was guilty. I'm on a fantasy football show. We are giving waiver advice each and every week. But here's the thing. It's better to be a few weeks early on rookies to stash them than it is to be too late and look for the by weeks.
Those have been a very strong signal in the past that a team is going to make a switch to running backs. I mean, you look at look at what JK Dobbins, DeAndre Swift carmakers, all of them, the their opportunity wasn't the clearest to begin the year. I mean, some of them were still drafted like it was there.
But these rookie running backs who have established veterans in front of them, they get drafted early. And a lot of the times these players get dropped because the first three to four weeks, they aren't as involved as you want. And then when you get into the middle of the week or middle of the season, just start stashing these players like who or who else are you going to I mean, you can pick up a guy for a one week thing, but you got to think long term.
You got to start getting ready for the second half and for that playoff push. And no one is going to give your team a boost like a rookie running back who inherits a starting job or takes over a starting job, especially after that by week. Like, Look, Dobbins, after the bye week, week eight, he was the running back seventeen. And it was done like if you had waited to pick up Dobbins at that point, congratulations. You're spending your waiver priority.
Any fab you have left, you're going to have to drop it on him. This same thing for DeAndre Swift coming off the bye week, the running back thirteen and then carmakers after the bye week. It was a I believe it was the the highest running back rush that he had seen over the season after the bye week. And then eventually he started picking it up and getting huge volume and winning people weeks at the end of the season. So stasch these guys.
It's OK, be early. Let them sit on your bench. Let them, you know, over time, like a fine wine wise, it's hard.
It's I did give you my experience with this in the advice is important because it bears itself out every year, but it's still very difficult because I was the case of adding carmakers is a mid season ad and when a rookie sits on your bench for a couple of weeks doing nothing and you are scrambling and you are streaming other positions and you are making injury adjustments, holding on to him, I didn't hold onto him.
I let him go back into the free agency. So it was something that I regretted, obviously in the end when carmakers was on fire. But it's still a very difficult thing to do. And yet year after year, you bring up this year's examples. You know, Myles Sanders came on so strong the year before and it happened a couple of years ago, right? Yeah.
And it's like you're saying, keeping a rookie running back on your bench. Well, you're like, well, this this wide receiver four is producing. I have some by week's coming up here that I'm going to I know that this guy is actually producing this. There's running back isn't doing anything. I think in the long run, it's better to hold on to that rookie running back and then figure out the wide receiver who has to fill in on the bye week and and just be ahead of the curve a couple of weeks.
That that is the approach that I will be taking next year.
Yeah, part part of the reason we do these, you know, things to remember shows is the difficulty. It's the fact that it's not it doesn't happen naturally. You're not going to have a rookie stink three weeks in a row picking them up halfway through the season and want to hold on to him. We have to remember to hold on to him because it's it feels unnatural. But we've got enough history and evidence to say, you know, let's do it.
And that, I think, leads in well to my next tip, number nine, number nine. All right. There's going to be tough. It's emotionally difficult to do this, but I am going to remember to sell my wide receivers who are on fire one month into the season when I have a I know it's there's no way. No, no, no way. I know.
Now, there's feel like you really need to follow up on this one. Yeah. Yes, I do. Maybe trade them to me now.
I know. Absolutely. I want to remember this a month into the season. I need to, like, set a timer right now to him to remind me to bring this up on the show one month in, because I believe in what I'm saying here. This was one of the notes I made to myself, you know, mid to three quarters of the way through the season. And I'm not talking about the the superstar of superstars. Right. If you draft Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams and Michael Thomas and they're great, you paid a ton for them.
But there are always these wide receivers who are just dominating and you think it's never going to go away here. Here's an example. The top 15 wide receivers going into week five included Tyler Lockett, who was the number two. He was unbelievable. Just couldn't ever cool down Amari Cooper, DKA Metcalf, who would have gotten you anything you want in fantasy? Odell Beckham, Robbie Anderson, KD Lamb, rookie sensation, already top fifteen, and Cooper Kupp, who was had a great start to the season.
These guys can net you a lot and here's why I'm saying to trade them. I talked about this all throughout the season. We talked about it a lot on the truth of the Wide Receiver series. Wide receivers, all of them outside of like the number one, two and three guys are super inconsistent. All of them. So if you know that you've got a month of good games, you know that they're not going to keep doing that. It's just not going to happen.
It's the exact same thing as a wide receiver who has four great games later in the season. And yet it feels completely different. Right? If they have four great games at the end of the season or they sucked and then they just got lucky. But if they have four great games at the beginning of the season, they are legit. They're for real. It's part of the game plan, then it's never going to cool off because they because you think that they could be.
They might be. I mean, the new normal, especially with someone like Robby Anderson, because I want to relate this again to to real life. I had Robby Anderson. He's in a new home. He dominates for four weeks.
This is the new normal for Robby Anderson. I resisted trading him. I thought about trading him.
I didn't trade him. I wish I traded him and I get it, and it's not to say that this will have a 100 percent hit rate, nothing in fantasy football, nothing has a 100 percent hit rate. But the statistics say that these guys are not going to keep up the pace they start with when they're dominating the first four weeks of the season. And it never feels like they'll cool off. They've been great for four weeks. You can sell them for a king's ransom.
And at that point, I mean, let's say they let's say they don't cool off. Right. Stefon Diggs right now, he would have been a mistake to trade him after four weeks. So if you're getting value hopkins'. Yeah. If you're getting that level of value in return, then so what if you still could make a good trade, having traded Stefon Diggs away? But if it turns out that the statistical probability of these wide receivers not staying this consistent and hot through the rest of the season comes to fruition, you're going to maximize your value.
So a month into the season, I'm going to be trading my wide receivers who are on fire. It's going to be tough. It's going to be difficult. I'm going to have to watch the segment again to remind myself this is the right move. All right.
I think it's my turn. Number eight. All right. We started from the top and now we're here. I took a look at the first twenty picks in this past year's draft. Those price picks, those spectacular guaranteed superstar picks, nine of them, nine of the top 20 picks, quote unquote, delivered for your fantasy team. That is less than 50 percent. This is something that it bears repeating every year. Six of them failed, struggled due to injuries.
We know CMC and Barkley and Michael Thomas and like injuries are going to be a piece of the equation in the top 20 picks for five other ones, underwhelmed severely. Zeke, maybe that's the offense and what happened. Clyde Kenyan Drake. Here's the thing. We said every single year you don't win your league, get the draft. You have to say water. You have to remember to roll with the punches and you have to continuously build depth throughout the year.
The mindset that would be the most problematic for a fantasy football player that we need to remember each and every season because we spend the entire offseason painting a beautiful picture of our team. And you've got your two running backs in your two wide receivers and you've got your flex. And everything is it's like chiseled into stone. You think that they're locked, you think you you have a position locked down and you just don't and this this number that I'm bringing up here, number eight, is to remember the fact that you will never get to autopilot your season based on the draft.
You will never get to autopilot it based on maybe you're in a league where you've secured three or four picks in the top 20. That still does not mean that you have the season on lockdown or on autopilot. And so I thought it was interesting to look at those top 20 picks and just see how, you know, sideways it can go on any given season. So it's better to have people waiting in the wings. It's better to never kind of rest on their laurels of the draft and know settle for whatever you have on your bench.
You need to be making moves. You need to be keeping up with it each and every week. Agree, when you when you are building a house, you lay down your cement foundation and then you're not done.
You don't call it a day like I got I got a super sweet slab. This is where I'm sleeping now. Oh, man, you got to finish the house.
When your slab gets some cracks in it and the foundation breaks, calcium is gone. You still want to have a house, right? You got to got to do what you gotta do, man. Fix it up.
We're really into construction over here and things.
It's back to you, Mike. Oh, No.7. All right. Number seven, this is a reminder.
And we all we all know this, but I just want to take a second to I don't want to forget to remember and I want to highlight what happened last year. Rushing quarterbacks equals fantasy football. Here are the top ten quarterbacks in rushing yards last year. Lamar Jackson, Kyla Murray, Cam Newton, Russ Taysom Hill, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. Of that list, only Cam Taysom Hill, Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts were not top 10 quarterbacks at the position.
But of that list, only two guys, Cam and Daniel Jones, would be considered a disappointment. Look at Taysom Hill in his four starts, he was averaging twenty one point six points per game. Jalen hurts in his four starts, averaged twenty three point seven points per game.
That would have been top ten at the end of the year. It's just the way that fantasy is scored. You cannot you cannot underestimate how powerful or overestimate, I should say, how powerful the rushing ability is to the the quarterback when ten yards is a point compared to twenty five yards is a point. It just is a difference making machine. Seek out the players who rush at the quarterback position. That's who you want to be looking at if you are.
I know that Lamar kind of disappointed for relative to for a relative hopes and dreams. Yes.
But he still finishes top as as a top ten guy. And he is because of the rushing that he was able to come back. And when you are looking at next year's draft, that's why Jason is so bullish on Jalen hurts. That's why I am so bullish on him as well. I don't I don't care how good he is because he runs the football is also good.
OK, but I don't want to steal your point because your point is accurate. Go on.
But but that's why we can we can disagree on Jalen hurts.
But I agree that he's going to run the ball a ton and that just turns into a safety net for fantasy football.
And even Cam Newton, Cam Newton was an incredible disappointment, but he still had his moments where you could plug and play Cam Newton due to all the rushing in, the rushing touchdowns. You just wish you would would have thrown the ball a little bit better over the course of the season. So make sure when you're in your draft, you are targeting someone at least who runs the ball a little bit more than just the it's hard to be the statue, true pocket pass and quarterback and really be in elite fantasy football quarterback.
It's not impossible, but it's just much easier for these guys who run. Yeah, I agree completely.
It always is disheartening because, you know, I, I look at some of these guys and, you know, Jalen hurts Lamar Jackson. They're good examples of like they're not they're not great quarterbacks. But at the same time, they're just for fantasy. They're as good as you can get.
And was that your attempt to, like, just make Jalen hurts and Lamar Jackson just in the same sentence together, like they just belong in same company?
Well, it was it was more than an attempt because I did it. So I would say that was it was a success.
These guys, these guys, the MVP and then Jalen hurts. Right?
You know, those those two guys that are so similar to the MVP and Jalen Hurts Futrell Lamar Jackson did win MVP his first year in the league.
Well, we know who Jason think's going to win it in the second year next year. It's that hurt. So good. All right.
Let's get number six. Number six. All right. I want to remember that mid round wide receivers are better than mid round running backs. And really, OK, I could title this mid round running backs suck. That's really the point. Mid round running backs. And and I've got to guide us here because mid round, a lot of times just thinking like, OK, does that mean like round like six or ten. I'm speaking after those first two round.
The first two rounds are so valuable in fantasy. Everybody knows it. If you've never played before, you can understand that. Of course, the first two rounds have the best players outside of that rounds.
Three through seven is what I'm talking about as mid round wide receivers are so much more valuable than running backs. I thought this going into last season, it came true again. And if you really look at those rounds, three and four especially. Just don't grab a running pack, man, and this is why, like last year, we want to say water, we want to be fluid.
And if the drought falls to us, I'm not locking myself in that I have to go running back, running back, or I won't take a running back later. I'm never going to lock myself in. But I want to remember the truth that usually those Mitt Romney running back suck and Mitt Romney wide receivers have a lot of hits, a lot of really potential value there.
And let me give you an example here. So over the last five years, there's been 112 running backs taken in rounds, three through seven. Sixty two percent of the time, they miss on their value, they don't provide value. Twenty two point three percent of the time, almost a quarter of the time, they are completely in mind, just a lighting that pick on fire. They finish twenty five spots behind their ADP and less than 10 percent do they provide like league winning value.
Look at this. Last year, round three and four, you had James Conner, Miss Chris Carson, miss with injury. Todd Gurley sucked the now you had Johnathan Taylor at the back of the third. Now that was actually the best pick bailed out. But you got right, Andy, you dropped this was bad.
You drafted Jonathan Taylor. Did you were you happy with that pick midway through the year? Well, I think the bailout Mike is referring to is just Mack being hurt, too. So, I mean, no, I was mediocre, really impressed.
Sure. And he had the great end of the season. So he was the best pick. The next best pick in the rounds. Three and four was Melvin Gordon. That was actually a hit. It was a good girl. He was a hit. Gurley was a hit for a while.
Yeah. So it really was a hit for a while. But then he sucked and no longer has a career left. Bell sucked. David Johnson was a good Leonard Fournette Raheem Mostert like they're all misses. Now look at the fourth round wide receivers Adam Thielen, Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, AJ Brown, Robert Woods, DKA Metcalf. So Belltrees why you draft running backs early. Exactly.
Because if you want that wide receiver early or super late. Yeah right exactly. So you know mid round wide receivers, they're just, they are much better odds on. They're much better good.
It's a good thing to remember mid around running backs.
Yeah. I went and I took a look back to twenty seventeen and was you know evaluating these eighteen by their ATP like it.
Did you finish at least a couple spots within your ATP or you could way exceed it as well. But say you're drafted as the running back twenty. If you finished as the running back twenty two I counted. That is you was fine, you were, you basically returned value rounds three through three through six. Just an absolute negative correlation, a negative return on investment when you're drafting running backs there. Meanwhile, over at the wide receiver position, you're at least 50 percent or better in a a weird anomalous thing though for me in my research, round seven for running backs, those those guys returned or exceeded value at a at a very rapid pace.
So the reason for this is because we're getting we're getting better as analysts, as an industry at projecting the correct running backs. And so they they are in the first, second and then those next couple of rounds after that are all the well, it could be the older there's there's always a bunch of reasons why they couldn't hit, but they could be. And a you need three.
Tarricone has to go somewhere.
I mean, he's got to go in the middle and somewhere.
No, it's a good thing to remember. I love it. Let's let's get to number five. Number five.
I'll keep it brief, guys. Great Titans or my new best friends. All right. Great Titans. On my new best friends, I got to experience the absolute joys of being a tight end, one fantasy manager this year in multiple leagues. And frankly, I could get used to it.
It's one thing to strategically accomplish the whole tight end streaming world. We try to help you do that throughout the year. It can be done. Most people have to do that. Most people have to do that. That's that's a good reminder there. And you know what else is fun, finding George Kittle in the late rounds or Mark Andrews in the late rounds? That's fun, too. That being said, Kelsey Wollar, you don't got to deal with any of that.
You just plug them in your lineup. You won the position each and every week. You got an extra roster spot on your roster. Each and every week. You can strategize whatever else you want to do. You want to put your mind energy into streaming quarterbacks or streaming your defense or depth for injuries. Guess what? You have one less thing to make part of your strategic decisions each and every week.
And I'm telling you, Kelsey belongs in the first round. Having it on lockdown was absolutely a delight. My opponents feared me every week.
And I mean, you get extra FAPE like you write draft draft drafting. Kelsey gives you extra five or more waiver priority over your opponents because you're not using them at the position.
What a neat way to think about it when you are drafting Travis. Kelsey in the back of the first round are drafting Kalsi plus twenty five or Kelsi plus thirty plus thirty five because I mean that's the truth of it.
You are not spending that on a speculative Jack Doyle ad or Cox or you know, Trey Booboos. Why did I just name three Colts.
Maybe that's a problem. But yeah, you know next year you look at it and you say Kelsey Kittel. Waller distinct strategic advantages more than ever before in the wasteland of tight ends, so for me, that was that was one of my big takeaways in 20, 20. Number four. All right. Easy like Sunday morning. Sunday mornings roll around your frantically looking for news, you're setting your lineup, you're done, set it, forget it. Let's go watch some football.
Don't be lazy.
And I'm talking to myself because I missed a few times on these as well.
When you have a player who becomes IRR eligible, move them, move like this, make sure this is part of your Sunday morning process, move them to the E.R., get that extra roster spot and go add somebody. This is your chance that you found a scratcher on the ground as you're leaving the grocery store.
And it's it's just there. You know what? This thing's probably you're going to scratch it. It's probably going to go right back in the garbage. But it is a scratch. Or it could it could get you some sweet cash in. You just found it and you get you beat everybody else to it. A couple examples. Last year, Jordan Reed, I picked him up on a Sunday morning because I had an extra spot. Now, it didn't work out.
I got to slam dunk on Jason.
And that felt really good. It felt bad and that felt good. And and like I believed in Jordan Reed, too. But I got thank you. I could have perhaps taken that moment to try and trade Jordan Reed to Jason, a guy that I picked up for free.
Jason was going to spend up to get him in the playoff run, the forty Niners running backs.
And and here's the thing. You're looking at your waiver wire go and there is absolutely nobody there. This is your chance to play.
What if what could happen? What if a running back here gets an opportunity in front of him? This is really well with stashing rookie running backs also, by the way. But I looked at the forty Niners situation and Jeff Wilson was coming back from injury and it was, well, OK, what if something happens to Jeff Wilson is also the the starting running back for the forty Niners. That and I picked him up on Sunday morning. I had no fab that week.
Jeff Wilson stumbled into a whole bunch of opportunity and that singular move won the league for me. Our league of record. I have I would have had no chance if I had not picked up Jeff Wilson right there. I would have not had a chance to pick up Jeff Wilson on the on the waivers because I would have had to I didn't have fab. I couldn't do anything about it. So make sure you don't be lazy Sunday. Do this with all your leagues where you can move players onto the IRR.
That's where I'm really looking in the mirror at myself. I would I had I would hyper focus on a couple of leagues. I'd go check my my my roster on some other league and I go, oh man. Julio was out wasn't he? I forgot to put him on the IRR, so don't be lazy on Sunday morning.
Just grab somebody who has potential a you were you're very good at that this year.
Not to mention I mean, even if you took away the fantasy points, you received the ability to strut after you make a move like that that next week, you know, you did it with Jordan Reid.
It didn't pan out in particular with being able to do that, that walk that dance right next to somebody and say like, oh, let me go pick up that await you. Pick them up when whenever you get a person before the breakout. Oh, yeah. And I feel like a super genius. You get to strut and it feels real bad to be the other person. I can speak to that. All right.
I believe that means Jason is up next.
Number three. All right. This one is the early bird gets the worm. And I'm not talking about having to wake up before your opponents to get a waiver wire in. I'm talking on the course of the season, and this is really, truly, truly, truly one that I need to remember. You, too. You get it. But I struggle with this every single year. It's been two years in a row. I've told myself I'm going to be better and I haven't.
Here's the point. Spend your waiver priority and spend up at Fab early in the season. I struggle with it. I never want. I'm like, well, what if what if it doesn't pan out? What if it doesn't work out? What if I spend a lot and it's not the right guy? I want to hold and wait until I know that. Sure. Fire guarantee is coming.
Jason, when you were a kid and you got it was your birthday, you get 50 bucks or whatever for your birthday. Did you have that problem back then to where you'd go to the store? You have all your new money and you just couldn't pick out a like a toy or something. Did that happen to you?
I don't think so. I think as a kid, it was well, I can have it right now. So yes, please, it's late. So I need to be more childlike in my in my favor to my my fab decisions favor. I went fab and whatever its favor, it's a favor. Yeah, I like it. The favorite. The favor favorite. It's my favorite wire.
My my point is this, there's, there's two advantages here. Advantage number one is that the true breakout players are going to get their opportunities earlier. You know, you look at James Robinson, you look at Justin Jefferson really early in the season, they broke out. And the second half of it is it's just math. It just makes more sense.
Look, if I spend fifty five dollars for someone in week one, I have the chance of 16 weeks of value. That's that's three five dollars a week versus if I spend fifty dollars doing budgets now, I mean, I'm just mathematically it makes sense.
You get more per dollar if you spend early in the season than you do. I spend you do fifty dollars on, you know, a player in week ten then I think that's ten bucks a week.
If there's two things that Tupperware in the fridge and you don't know whether either one is good, why not take the one with more in it.
Exactly. So I'm I I'm speaking of myself here because it's two years in a row. I have missed out on some players that I thought about going after. I didn't go hard enough after and I should have.
So next year, that week one, I'm going to I'm going to, you know, see who I believe is has the best chance of having me.
I mean, I don't want to overcorrect, but at the same time, like I remember week one waivers are show. I was talking up James Robinson. I said, look, you're a good example. I believed in him. He was the one that I would have put my first waiver priority on. Now, we're not in a waiver priority system. We're in a fab system. And I didn't spend enough.
He was who I believed and I did not spend enough to get him because I just want to save, you know, be frugal and. And what what happens later? I wish I spent up and grabbed him. I'm going to do it next year.
Yeah. It just don't do that now that Mike's bringing up being a kid, when you get that, like, wad of cash for your birthday and you go to the store, I love how kids, they will tell you they're saving all their money for one particular item. You get to the store, that item is out of stock and they are going to spend that money that day no matter what.
Yeah, no, no, no. I really wanted this more than anything.
All right. I guess I'm back up No.
Two. No big slices from little pies.
OK, you don't get a big slice from a small pie. Beware. And we talked about this throughout the season, in particular with Lamar Jackson and Marquese Hollywood Brown. Beware of low volume passing offenses. That's the reminder. You cannot get enough value out of these offenses no matter how talented these stars on the team seem to be. And I went and looked this past year, the bottom ten teams in passing yards produced two top twenty four wide receivers was AJ Brown and number nine.
There are low volume offense but very efficient.
And then Terry McLaurin sneaked in at twenty three. Good work Terry. You know who is not on that list? Any Ravens, any Jets, any Patriots, any Giants, any Broncos, any Browns, any Eagles, any Bengals? None of them made it into the top twenty four. The pie was too darn small.
We always optimistically hope that talent trumps all, but it is really, really, really hard for that to happen consistently enough to finish inside the top twenty four, you get the Jamison Crowder breakout week, you get a Sterling Shepard weak like the end of the year. You get a Jarvis Landry weak, but they can't do it enough because they're passing volume.
Pi is too darn small and then the predictive, you know, it's really hard to predict success for breakout wide receivers when they are starting behind the eight ball. And Hollywood was the example a lot through the year. But like Denzel Mims in his chance at a breakout, Jerry Judy and his chance at a breakout, you need a bigger pie just to be. It's hard enough predicting it. You need another nobody. You'd rather have the number two for a high passing volume.
Team, the number one for a low passing volume team is just statistically it's the truth, but it feels bad when you're grabbing up team's second player over. I can get this team's number one player.
Yeah, and we've seen that a little bit even in the running back room where, you know, the Saints for years had multiple options. You could play in fantasy, but then you could have the Belko on a low, a bad rushing team, and they just never paid off. No scoring opportunity. So you do need to read into those offenses. You do need to think about volume.
Right, because Baltimore is a good offense still.
I mean, maybe not this year like they were last year, but still considered a good offense. You had good weeks from the Browns without question. You had good weeks from the Eagles or even the Bengals, but it wasn't passing volume.
And that really, really hurt all of those teams in the bottom ten passing yardage. So I think that's a good reminder. The Hollywood rule maybe is what it'll end up being called in the end. But yeah, no, no big slices from small pies.
No one wants number one, guys. It is what it always is, this is the opportunity every year where we remind you so importantly to fix all your league settings. This is when you do it. This is when you start the conversation. This is when you start taking a look at, oh, you know what? They always talk about fab. We've got this old waiver priority system. We should switch to fab. Oh, they always make fun of us because we're playing in a 17 championship and we will always make fun of that.
Well, we're very rude. We're very won't make fun of you this year to year. We will if if you are. No. This coming season. This great season. Is that happening this year? It is in twenty, twenty one. So everyone should be a week. Seventeen championship team this year if you play in week seventeen leagues. Look you were just ahead of the curve, you don't stay in week seventeen. You don't need to fix anything for weeks until your commish just weeks seventeen.
And for everyone else move from week seventeen, 16 to 17 because there will be 18 weeks in the NFL season next season. Seventeen games and you don't want to play your championship game. Do we get paid overtime for the extra week. I don't think so man.
So pretty. We don't have to pay the producers more do we. Oh no, no, no. We haven't given them a raise in five years and we never will. All right.
Yeah, I was I just trying to check our budget here.
Yeah. Oh no. Oh, Hal found the button Brooks gives himself raises.
That's right. That's what we, we lean on him for that. Now there are a lot of things to kickers. Do you want kickers in your league. Super. Oh you don't want to change format. You want change keepers, you want to do any of that stuff. You want to do it late February or start talking about it in February, March, not a week before the season when everything is kind of set in stone. Wow. And kick people out of your league if they stink right now and find somebody else.
I just realized as we're talking about this, you know, we're we're getting close to the time of the year when we start stat now, every single team, every single player, I mean, we we literally give we're not that close, are we?
We're we're not that far.
No, but what I'm realizing is that everybody's stats are going to be so different this year because of the extra game, like, oh my God, thousand yard rushing season will be like everybody you get, you're going to have to readjust.
Oh my. No new default it will. I mean, thankfully, I usually stat people out on what I think per game and then extrapolate that out.
So but already where you giving me Jalen hurts season long stats and the historical context. That's right.
Thirteen thousand rushing yards. Oh, that's true, and we're going to we're going to help you reset your brains for fantasy numbers and NFL numbers this year, I guess we'll be like I'm I'm already locked in on.
He has to be my guy. Oh, my gosh. You've got to wait for that ADP first.
Yeah, that's true.
Well, I'm going to have to really spend some time in prayer deciding how much I want to oppose you this offseason. That's going to be fun, though. All right, that was our 10 things, top 10 things to remember from 2020. We hope that you enjoyed it. We hope that they were at least somewhat helpful. And look, if you have some things that you wanted to remember, I'm sure you can leave us some comments on Twitter at the followers on our YouTube channel, YouTube dotcom slash the fantasy football.
Let us know what you learn this year.
Look, learning lessons is not always easy. A lot of times it's hard, but if you remember them for next year, you don't have to learn them twice.
So that's the goal. That's the goal. All right.
That'll do. Don't don't forget. Don't forget. Last chance to get the listener league. If you want to get it, go to the ultimate draft kickoff. Get the ultimate draft kit, the cheapest price. You are automatically entered into the listener league drawing about. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy football podcast, join our fantasy football community on Join the Dotcom and follow us on Twitter at the F.