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[00:00:00]

Hard knock starts today, teams are on the field. Fantasy football is kicking into high gear. And if you're not ready yet, you've got to go to ultimate traffic.com to get the best draft kit in the world.

[00:00:15]

This is Melvin Gordon and you're listening to the Fantasy Football podcast. Welcome to the Fantasy Football podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike, right. Welcome in. Oh, it's hard knocks down. Oh, very nasty, little fancy with that one. Welcome into the show, a crooner, that's what they used to be called, the crooner voice. Yeah. Where they didn't really sing, they just kind of talk the da da da da headed out the door.

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You're not singing. You're stuck.

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You just crooning ba ba ba ba boom.

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Tuesday, August 11th. Welcome into the fantasy football podcast ending Mike and Jason. Hard not to snidey, that's that's what they say would be fun, get some inside information, see how it's going inside these facilities. I'm excited. Yeah, some masks, some face to face shields.

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We have a wide receiver show today, top ten wide receivers, our consensus rankings walking through them on today's episode. You can find us on Twitter at the F Pollaers. Jason said it at the top, the ultimate draft kit available now at Ultimate Draft Gay.com. And I would encourage you to check out the website, the fantasy football outcome.

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We just launched some very wonderful player profiles which have athletic metrics, speed scoring. Osteria Mike is on Antonio Gibson's page for three or four hours a day.

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How did you know that? I've got Google Analytics so I could see your IP address.

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I can see your IP address, just you pivot alt tab between that and Darwin's profile. I just keep refreshing it so it will be the most popular.

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Now, Blake jawin Antonio Gibson very similar athletic profiles, according to.

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Oh, no.

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Oh, no. Darwin's a gigantic human being, but Gibson is very slightly different profile. All right. Quick question of the day.

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Brooks would like us to name a player or situation that will be annoyed to talk about throughout the twenty twenty fantasy season, nothing, absolutely nothing.

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I'm going to be so very happy to talk about everything. Look, I'll talk about it all a hundred times. I don't care. This season is different. Nothing's getting me down. I'm running runni. Fellas, give me the NFL.

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Hey, that that's the right answer.

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That's the right answer because I'm manufacturing. Oh, I'm thinking, what do I not want to talk about?

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I want to talk about it all. You're a hundred. I want to be annoyed talking about Baker Mayfield again. Let's go. I want to be annoyed talking about the Washington football team. Exactly.

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I want to be annoyed hearing Andy talk about AJ Green like I want. Let's bring it on.

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My situation, though, to manufacture an answer for this question would be the Detroit backfield situation, because I I mean, there's no winning. There's literally no way it goes well for me. Right, because. Correct. If Detroit just stinks, which is what I'm projecting. As far as a running game, then what's your answer for last year as well, that it's not you know, it's like, oh, this is not fun. It's not good for fantasy.

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Let's say DeAndre Swift, a player that all three of us loved going into the draft, and his number one guy, my number three, was extremely talented. He breaks out. Who gets what I'm going to get, I guess what I'm going to oh, we all the carry on Johnson love from yesteryear being usurped.

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But yes, right. Let's let's say carry on. Does it.

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I'm not going to enjoy that. Guess how many shares the carry on Johnson I'll have. Oh stop. You won't enjoy it like you. Okay. I would love it. You'll be victory lapping every touchdown he scores. But I don't, I don't actually. I mean I would draft Swift ahead of carry on right now, so that's why I would be upset by it. But you're right. The best situation here. Just isn't going to happen, though.

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So that's all. Oh, no, it's sad, but true. News& notes from around the league. Pick one. Jason. Pick one, carry on, Johnson, either he returns. Well, I mean, I guess not returns, too, but establishes himself surprisingly or Rodney Anderson makes a team. Oh man.

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I would have I would have to pick carry out. And that's OK. But I am very excited for Rodney Anderson. Should be at least two injuries ahead of him on the depth chart happen.

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OK, the Patriots have signed running back Lamar Miller, formerly of the Texans, to a one year contract. We were remembering somehow it was just a year ago when Andrew Luck retired on the same day Lamar Miller tore his ACL and MCL during pre-season. So he is back. This throws even more question marks into the backfield in New England. And the latest report we have on Sony, Michel, is that they just don't know if he'll be ready to go to start camp.

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And Brandon Bolden opted out and so they needed some depth at the running back position. What utilization do you expect from Lamar Miller in this offense? Is this Sony Michel Insurance? Yeah, that's what I believe this is. This is the veteran you signed before the NFL draft. This is, you know, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or, you know, the Washington football team going out and getting Peyton Barber. Right. We don't know who we're going to get in the draft, but we have to have someone.

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This is the opposite. They don't know who they're going to have in the season. They need they need someone there. I don't expect Lamar Miller to usurp or become the number one, you know, the number one player in this backfield. However, I wouldn't doubt that he is actually the best. Yeah. So should Sony start the season on the pop? Maybe he does get a chance and plays well with Cam behind him, you know, but I don't think I'm signing or drafting anyone in this back.

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No Lamar Miller or Sony Michel Stacks for any of your rosters. Oh, I want to lock that backfield up. No, I'm going to have to grab James Wide and Rex Burkhead.

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And Damian Harris. Yeah. And a PPR league. I'm going zero RB James White. That's the running back I would take from this team. I agree.

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This is all Busoni Michelle's health. But look, Lamar Miller should be healthy, you know, we always we're talking about like Preston Williams, maybe somehow Preston Williams is back from his ACL tear that happened in like November. I mean, Lamar Miller was last preseason. He he should be back now. We know sometimes, you know, it was ACL and, yeah. A larger injury. But saying that, you know, sometimes it takes these players a while once they're on the field to actually be back.

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But the last time we saw Lamar Miller, he was actually pretty good for the Houston Texans. He would have had a thousand yard season, but he did miss a couple of games. I, I think he's toast. I don't know. But but based off what you're saying, because he's older and has the injury. Yeah.

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I mean, like he did great. Or who we're talking about.

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AJ Green is on the field playing right now. Lamar Miller or Lamar Miller is about to be wasn't demand for him until now. And Lamar Miller is older, and I think he I mean, it's insurance, like you said, but what I'm saying that is. Weeks. Week six, I'm not projecting this, but with Jason, I would not be shocked to see Lamar Miller is actually ends up being the lead running back for this team. I will say Tony has been bad.

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Yeah, I would I would agree with that. I would add to it that this also says they don't love what they have in Damien Harris. Yeah, there's all the oh, maybe Damien Harris, who, you know, was on the team last year. You wouldn't know. And he was getting some hype. He got a few days ago, seven snaps, you know, in his rookie season. They still feel like they need more because they don't think he's the answer.

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Yeah, they do run the football. I mean, even Sony, Michel, who somehow finishes the twenty eighth running back last year, almost 18, carries in all their victories. That's how that's the formulation that is going to work. We'll see Cam getting in there and OK, Lamar Miller added to the mix to I and expected to be back out on the field in a couple of days. And Alvin Kamara, I not a lot of specificity here, Alvin, but he he said he, quote, tore his knee.

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OK, something happened. It sounds bad in week that I want you to remind me, I would prefer not to know.

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I don't know what that ends up meaning, but he says he was dealing with it the whole season. He did not have surgery. He's been just recovering, rehabbing, working out, and now he's back. So, I mean, we knew something was wrong. I mean, he just didn't look right.

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He came back after, you know, he got injured a week, six, missed two games, came back, played the entire rest of the season and had, you know, was on pace for two hundred and eighty six opportunities. It was he was good for fantasy. He just didn't have enough touchdowns during that stretch. I'm not worried about the knee he injured before we saw him play.

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Well, when we were watching a lot of last year, I mean, he was one of the guys that if you watched him try to get to the edge and some of these games after the injury and you were like, that doesn't quite look like Alvin Kamara, you know, not super. No. Now regular. Yeah.

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Normal size, no matter. Mm. Any other news you got him. What.

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Yeah. And any other. That's what tore his knee means like any other news that you guys want to discuss talk about. We have one month from the NFL kickoff. One month away. Yes. Very hard knocks kicking it off.

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Fantasy drafts getting it almost Carmini last night sitting. No, no. Amazingly it wasn't sitting. It was a giant jump and fall to the ground. Why are you doing that? You're almost you jump out of the water.

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So out of a chair. Out of that room. So that's what I meant. No.

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So here's here's I'm on the way to my garage. I'm taking something into my garage. I open is on a journey to the garage. I'm on a journey. And I open the garage door. And as I open it, holding this box, something scurries in very fast into the house, into the house, right at my feet.

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Something scurries into your house, just beelines for my feet. And I am screaming, yeah, I can see this. And then I jump and I land on my knees and I'm running back to the couch where you're holding a box.

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Yeah. You were startled. You your reaction was to jump into the air and land on your knees. Well, it was it.

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Did you hold the box the whole time? No, the box was good. You know, this was I mean, the box was an empty. I was taken out to recycle. Oh, OK. I didn't care about that. But this was not a planned and choreographed move. This was more of a oh, no, I'm about to die anyway. So I go back to this to be clear.

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You landed on your feet or you landed on your knees. One knee one. You went down. I went down. OK, sack of potatoes down. And did it look like the superhero landing? No, no, those are cool. So I run back to the couch where my wife is and she's worried. I'm worried. I'm like, I think a rat just came in. Anyways, we spend about forty five seconds trying to get the I literally was standing on my couch at this point.

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Anyways, I, I finally worked my way back over to the garage door to try to look and see what happens. It was a rapper, was it was a rapper that was left on the ground and in my garage and when I opened the door, it blew in.

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It was Eminem, ice cream cookie rapper from one of my children. So I injured myself and made a fool of myself because they have a rapper is excellent and also reminds me what to spray for those rappers. Yeah. So we we have another podcast called the Spitfire's Podcast, and we often do funny drafts and we were drafting a fire fighting items from a pet store. And I took Rats'. Yes. And I was mocked relentlessly by Jason. Yes.

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And apparently it took one rat to send him to the couch. It was it was a rapper. I'm not afraid of rats. I'm afraid of rappers rap.

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Well, you never cease to surprise us, Jason.

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I mean, you are. Very special. It was embarrassing. It was an Eminem ice cream wrapper. OK, well, I hope you recover.

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I hope you can get back to true form like album that healing up. That's that's just don't sit anywhere and you'll be fine.

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Wide receivers. All right, top ten wide receiver episode, looking at our consensus wide receiver rankings and right at the top tip top. Big surprise here. Shocker, Michael Thomas, all of our number one overall wide receiver after he broke the NFL reception record. One hundred and forty nine for seventeen twenty five and nine on one hundred and eighty five targets. So he was thrown to twice per play.

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That's what that equates to for me. But just just obviously an incredible player. And any reason for us to think that? Now, more of the same for Michael Tom-Tom, 20 20, I think so, and don't hear what I'm not saying. He's my number one wide receiver as well, but I don't feel like, you know, we talked about what's the percentage chance that CMC is is the running back? What's the percentage chance that Michael Thomas is the wide receiver one at the end of the year?

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I put it to like 11 percent. I'd say maybe about a quarter, 15 percent for me.

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Yeah. I mean, Michael Thomas came into the league and was great. Rookie year, top ten wide receiver. He's been phenomenal, breaking catch percentage records every year. He is one of, if not the best wide receiver in the National Football League. He's locked in. But last year, his number one finish was absurd. I mean, the amount of targets that he got, you look at most players in the league and he said he broke the single season reception.

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Yes. You you, you you say, OK, this guy is a dominant one. So he's going to get one hundred and forty plus targets. Right. Like like Michael Thomas got the two previous seasons, one hundred forty nine, one hundred and forty seven. Last year he had one hundred and eighty five targets. Now they add Emmanuel Sanders. I don't think he is going to repeat at a number up there. I think it's going to be far more closer to one hundred and fifty targets, which again, that's awesome.

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I would love that. And he's, you know how many he's going to catch from? One hundred fifty targets. One hundred and fifty one. Somehow he will catch more than the amount of times the ball's been thrown at him. But I don't think that we'll see the level of wide receiver one tier that he was last season.

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He, by the way, kind of a crazy stat for how good he was last year. Never finished number one on any given week. He was just, you know, to three mindblowing, consistent. When Marvin Harrison broke the receiving record, he did it on two hundred and five targets, dropped down to one forty. The next year wasn't any less. Marvin Harrison and Michael Thomas won't be any less Michael Thomas. The targets will probably come down.

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You always have a chance at an offense that's good to put up better touchdown totals. I mean, nine touchdowns is not some outlandish number. It wasn't the backbone of his fantasy season.

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So he could easily do do that or end up in the eleven twelve range. Yeah, I mean, the real question with Michael Thomas is more related to when you're in the draft and you're deciding between the very difficult to find consistent running back options or going with the Michael Thomas, is he price right now in a place where he has to repeat to get the value?

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Yeah, I mean, right now he's inconsideration at the four is often picked at the five or six. All of those spots. I'm taking a running back personally. You know, it might change if I'm in a three wide receiver for PPR league, then obviously the depth is going to matter in the range of wide receivers that I'll start, will, will, will shift. But in your normal leagues, I'm I'm going running back probably for the first seven or so.

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I wanted to test that for you. So running back or Michael Thomas Kenyon, Drake or Thomas. Yeah. I knew you were going to go right to that name. I thought that was an easy idea. You would take Drake. I was trying to warm up to the line. No, I think I think the line bullseye. So I think the line is two. Earlier than that, I would take Michael Thomas over Kenyan Drake Myles Sanders.

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But if it comes to the Big Three, Alvin Kamara, David Cook and Clyde Edwards allare, I will I will draft them all over. Michael Thomas.

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Davante Adams comes in at number two on our top ten wide receiver list. He's three on my my rankings and Jason's two on mix in twelve games last year. Eighty three for nine, ninety seven and five on one hundred and twenty seven targets. And again that's only in twelve games played, including a couple of games where he's kind of beat up. So coming into the season, I think the biggest question mark is the identity of the Green Bay Packers.

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Last year, it was found in Aaron Jones in the running game, and you had, you know, disappearing acts in the passing offense at times, you also don't have a lot of help for Devonta Adams. Correct. On the other side of the field, you can you can be enthusiastic about Allen Lazard. He looks like he's going to be the two they lost. Devin Funchess. They had picked him up as an offseason acquisition. He opted out and they didn't invest draft capital.

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They went with the old quarterback in the first round routine and another running back and another running back in the second instead of, you know. More weapons for Aaron Rodgers, so, you know, Davante Adams is going to be a target monster. What are you looking at when you look at this season, the ceiling and the floor for Devonta Adams? He hasn't played a full season since twenty sixteen. Sure, he has some risk. I mean, we had if you remember, a couple of years ago, you had that devastating head injury when he was playing against the Chicago Bears.

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So he yeah, Adams does carry risk, but I love Davante Adams like he is a truly elite wide receiver, which is amazing that we are here calling Davante Adams elite compared to where he started in the NFL. Looked like he was going to be just an absolute bust, but he found his way. He's elite. He's a great route runner. He finds himself open. He's a target hog in games played last year. You're talking thirty plus percent of the targets.

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Those are elite. Those are Michael Thomas. Those are DeAndre Hopkins type of of a target share almost in one thousand yards despite the twelve games. And the story for Davante Adams last year, which he was still good when he was playing, was it was the touchdowns, you know, twelve games, only five touchdowns. He was coming off of three straight years with double digit touchdown receptions, which I expect him to be back to. He's he's one of those guys where you can make the easy bit of good will.

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Adams over under nine and a half touchdowns now. Oh, I'm going to take the over. So that's why I like and that's why he's my number two. I thought an interesting stat on Davante Adams over the last two seasons is from Pro Football Focus. Twelve percent of his targets have been contested. Just tells you how open open Davante Adams is. Any concerns with the snap percentage dip? Last year he was at the eighty four seventy four eighty nine percent and dropped to sixty three point range playing hurt.

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Yeah.

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Yeah. I mean he is truly, he's a guy that's going to be up in the one hundred and seventy plus target range. There's, there's not many and it's coming from a Hall of Famer who trusts no one else on the field. You've got the red zone prowess. The fact that he was the you know, he's the wide receiver three, two years ago, last year, who was great when he was playing. It was a fifteen points per game last year.

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So I'm all about the Davante Adams life. Yeah.

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And hopefully he can stay healthy for a full season and yes. Turn in that one hundred and seventy plus targets. Julio Jones comes in at number three is number two on my board for four, Jason three for Mike right now being drafted in the second round as the wide receiver, five off the board.

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So we all actually have him higher at the wide receiver position than others. A pillar of consistency throughout his entire career. Fantasy finishes since twenty fourteen, eighth, second, sixth, fifth, fifth, third. Mm hmm.

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And I know I didn't hear any. No ones. No, you did.

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And the loser what's what's crazy is you kind of look at it and I know that we have the the meme in our heads of Julio Jones limping off the field. Yeah. Fifteen, sixteen, fourteen, 16, sixteen, fifteen games played. He is, you know, snap percentages staying similar. He is just as automatic as it gets at the wide receiver position. If you talk about gambling in the second round on a running back that you think has upside or you stare down Julio Jones and you know, the output for Julio Jones will be right.

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What it's been. What do you do as a Jason, you're a risk averse, you know, first, second, third round type of player. You want to guarantee what you got in those spots because you miss in the first second round, you really set your team back. Then you got to hit at the lower probability rounds. How do you view Julio Jones? Are you ending up with him in a..

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I am ending up with him often if I am at the top of the first round in the first few picks, because I'm I'm running back heavy usually in those first couple of rounds. We talked about this yesterday. I don't want those round three, four or five running backs and I do want those wide receivers. So usually I end up with running back, running back. But when I'm near the top of the draft and I've got a stud running back and Julio falls to me at the back of the second, which I've had happen plenty of times, he's older.

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You know, he's he's never been fatigued. Yes, exactly.

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I was going to say it's just more people are used to seeing him there. And you've got other players that are a little bit more excited.

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And it's one of those things because he's not the touchdown machine that, you know, Delio Touchdown. Jones was a good dude. It was it was a fun short stretch. Julio Touchdown. Jones You know, he's not one of those guys that I would say is going to be the number one like as we've seen over the career. But he is his floor is so high. If you're in any kind of PPR league, he just dominates week in and week out.

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And that's who I want as my wide receiver.

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One, I am going to go on record. This is the year that he gets number one double digit touchdown. Oh, for Julio Jones. Well, then he's also just been wanting to try that since 2011. If he hits ten touchdowns, Julio Jones is the number one wide receiver. I would agree with that. It's time. It's time. I would like that very much. Julio.

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Hey, before we move on to the rest of the list, I want to thank today's sponsor, Pristine Auction. Come on, ladies and gentlemen, you know about pristine auction, the best sports memorabilia site on the planet. This is where I got my signed Blake jawin jersey, though, that I was able to unleash on air, find that just anywhere we got Davante Adams up on our wall right now. They make incredible gifts, very unique gifts for the sports fans in your life and you get fantastic deals.

[00:24:49]

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[00:25:17]

All right, we're going to move on to number four on our rankings, and that is Tyreek Hill. Tyreek Hill is number four. Last season, injuries slowed him down considerably, coming off of the number one overall fantasy finish in twenty eighteen a number four finish in twenty seventeen. He is being drafted as the wide receiver three right now.

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So he's getting all of the respect due to a world champion. So I have a little bit of a game to play, though, with Tyreek Hill that I think you will find. I like games intriguing, OK?

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I mean, and so it's going to beg a few questions from you, but we're going to play we're going to play a game called, you know, called Tyreek Hill or Stefon Diggs.

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Oh, I like it already. Oh no.

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Now this is numbers from the twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen seasons. OK, and just to throw it out there missed games. Who led the way between those two seasons and missed games. I'll start with that.

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Tyreek Hill missed two games I think. I think Diggs two years ago. I mean Diggs always misses games. He was pretty good this year actually.

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Tyreek Terry Smith. Oh no Terry Smith for Diggs is missed too.

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But I wanted you to know that when I give all these other stats, let's start with touchdowns, touchdowns. Tyreek Hill or Stefon Diggs over the last two seasons. Twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen. Goodness. Also having never been on this side of these games, this is wonderful watching, watching your faces because you don't know whether I'm trying not I've cursed Tyreek Hill was phenomenal two years ago.

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Double digits such as I'm going to go Tyreke I'm going to go Tyreke You are both correct Tyreek Hill nineteen touchdowns over the last two years but Stefon Diggs fifteen nineteen to fifteen. OK all right. One hundred yard games Tyreek Hill or Stefon Diggs. One hundred yard games over the last two years. Man that's tough. I'll go, I'll take this, I'm going to go Diggs as well because he's so hot and cold.

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Oh just the tyreek was hurt. You are correct. Stefon Diggs nine hundred yard game. These games are easy.

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Oh I don't know what you guys are talking about. Eight hundred yard games for two weeks and nine to eight Diggs wins. How about barely. Let's go this way. Top thirty six weeks. So this is a pretty important statistic.

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Top thirty six minutes to thirty six. All right. Thirty six weeks over the last two years.

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This is a gotcha. So I got to go.

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Diggs Yeah I because I think everybody listening. I mean the fact that where you're drafting him, where you're drafting Diggs says well of course that has to be Tyreek Hill. They are tied seven oh is a seventeen top thirty six weeks from each player, last one tops six weeks. So finishing inside the top six Terek Oh man.

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Well I like going to six and Diggs goes hot he goes I would have to go. Tyreke It would be disingenuous to actually say it is Tyreke OK all right. But just to point it out, it's eight to seven on top six weeks over that two year span and the only reason I'm bringing this up is not to necessarily.

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Oh boy oh boy I'm confused. Are you saying that Diggs is better than he's being drafted or the Tyreek Hill is worse than he's being drafted?

[00:28:48]

I'm going to give you one more to answer that question. Voice of public opinion. Thank you. Bust games over the last two years. So these are games where they actually go out and hurt your fantasy team. So I had my my stat ready was that over the last two years, Tyreek Hill has busted in forty percent of his games. Now that there was a long run this year when he came back from his injury and the defense was great for Kansas City.

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So I'm going to, I'm going to use my stat to my advantage. I'm going to guess Tyreke. I agree with Mike. It's actually seven days. Oh, you got 13 but 13 to 11 very close games. Everybody views Stefon Diggs through the lens of you don't know what you're going to get yet with these. Over the last two years Tyreke is not far off yet is drafted ridiculously different. So all that to say Tyreke is you're not getting Michael Thomas you're not getting Davante Adams you're not getting Julio Jones with Tyreek Hill you are getting a player that is going to potentially win you a week outright because it goes absolutely crazy.

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But he can disappear. You are not getting the engine to the car you are, but you're getting the noss. There you go and press that button. I want it. Yes, I want Tyreek Hill in my lineup. But he can't even though we you project him here. It's like the also the Amari Cooper syndrome where. Yeah. At the end of the year. Total points. Yeah. He's a wide receiver one. But if you were saying this is my guy, this is my wide receiver one, you know they, they can't cost you that many weeks.

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So the year know he's he's number six for me, he's number six for Andy. I can't imagine taking him over Julio Jones.

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I can't imagine taking him over to Jason has him ranked over Julio Jones.

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Is that is that still accurate?

[00:30:42]

So. Well, the ranking like you said, it's at the end of the year. Who has more fantasy points? Tyreek Hill, I think has a higher ceiling because of the touchdowns. But this is why when you look at tiers and you look at the rankings and the blurbs in the Utica and you see the risk rating and all of those things, you say, well, no, I'm going to draft Julio ahead of Tyreke because that fits my team better.

[00:31:04]

I do want to give a little bit of context or at least ask the question about specificity because it's been very negative on Tyreek Hill last year. Once you know that that midway point, the kids to the Chiefs defense got way better. Pat Mahomes was injured for a stretch of those games. He was hobbled. It wasn't the same offense during that stretch. From there to the end of the year, Tyreek Hill was the wide receiver. Forty one.

[00:31:32]

He was terrible. But if you look at the year prior and the first half of last year, Tyreek Hill was worthy of being the number one wide receiver. The number two three was phenomenal. So I think the question that fantasy owners have to at least have their own answer, since we don't know the future is was the the was the second half of last year, was that the new normal for the Chiefs for Tyreek Hill, or was that the injury of Tyreek Hill mixed with the injury of Pat Mahomes, mixed with the hot streak of the defense and and that is the outlier.

[00:32:06]

What what would be each of one of your answers to that question?

[00:32:10]

Well, I certainly don't think weeks 11 through 17 are prescriptive for Tyreek Hill at all in any way, shape or form. He is simply a less consistent player. Even when he was number one overall in fantasy, he was the 15th most consistent wide receiver, that is. And he's also going to have to be your first pick. If you want Tyreek Hill, he's going to be your first pick in the draft barring, you know, getting lucky and.

[00:32:34]

Yeah, you can get him in the second round, but his ADP is at one 10 right now, so. Oh, my God, there's a chance that he slides to the second round. And if you're at the turn, he may be your second pick. But the likelihood is you're having to start your team with Tyreek Hill and I you know, it's just something to be paying attention to. And it's all about your team identity. What are you going to do with the other picks?

[00:32:55]

Are you going to layer in more players with a lot of upside, but a lot of downside is going to be more consistency. These are the type of nuanced decisions your fantasy team has to make. Chris Godwin comes in at number five.

[00:33:08]

Chris Godwin got off to the absolutely insane start last season, finished with a he missed the last two games, but finished number two overall in fantasy football. He is the the example of the player that got the off season hype and delivered in every way, shape and form on second most yards per game last year.

[00:33:28]

Ninety five yards a game being drafted at the in the late second right now, not really. In association with that finish, people have doubts about whether Brady will be able to do what Winston did, whether God Brady will need to do what Winston did.

[00:33:44]

I think right. That's part of the issue is Winston's 30 interceptions meant, hey, we've got to keep in this ball twenty four point two fantasy points per game from weeks one through six that defined his season.

[00:33:56]

He was not as consistent over the last basically from the midway point of the season on. So. And we've talked one of the big principles that you notice each and every year, the beginning of the season, has such a mental impact on fantasy players. So those first six weeks dominating number one, oh, my gosh, look at this guy I got later in the draft. He's he's the best wide receiver in football. The backup wasn't as consistent.

[00:34:21]

It wasn't as good. Sure. A great wide receiver. But I think, you know, we have him at seven. Jason and I might have got him a four. Yeah. And look, I have a four. That's where my projections landed. It's scary ranking for a player who has a brand new quarterback. Now, I'm just, you know, projecting of trying to fit the puzzle pieces together of, you know, Chris Godwin is a top notch route runner.

[00:34:46]

Like the general public hasn't caught up on that yet. They like Chris God. When he broke out for fantasy, he was one of the best wide receivers last year. But you know how the the general public is like Keenan Allen, great route runner, Stefon Diggs, elite route runner using reception perception in our ultimate draft kit. Like Matt Harmon identified Chris Godwin as someone who's going to become an elite route runner. But when he was being drafted in the NFL draft, he was one of his absolute favorite players.

[00:35:15]

A lot of that as well because of contested catches, both of those things.

[00:35:19]

Yeah, and that's where we are like look at his Chris Godwyn success, running routes and especially, you know, he crushes the dig and the slant route. That's that's called the Tom Brady special new. I'm going to I'm going to come clean. I am starting to get. A little bit. More behind Tom Brady in general as a fantasy option and this offense and the belief that it will be. A passing offense, it will be oriented towards letting Tom Brady flex its muscles with Gronkowski, Godwin and Evans as often as he wants to, Brady didn't leave his six championship New England Patriots team to go and be a game manager, correct.

[00:36:04]

Somewhere else. He he wants to prove a point that he's the goat.

[00:36:08]

It's narrative. But I'll I'll look and I buy it. I buy it. You're right. Tom Brady does not leave New England without, like, a back pocket full of spite. Yeah. He's he's got something to prove. I mean, that team with that defense, they were eight. No, they were on the way towards the Super Bowl. It's not like he couldn't have won with the Patriots.

[00:36:29]

He wants to be an offensive machine.

[00:36:32]

And the weapons are just so different this year for him. And the thing is, is nothing that I've said about Brady earlier in the off season is not true. When it goes away, it goes away quickly. At this age, it's gone. I mean, it happened to Peyton Manning, but there is the other side. If it's not gone, it could be great. Mm hmm. So I think that I think Godwyn is probably he's probably being drafted in the right spot.

[00:36:56]

Wide receiver, sixth sense. You should have a little bit of concern when you're trapped in Chris Godwin. And if it seems like.

[00:37:04]

Now I'm feeling like maybe we're being a little negative about some of these players understand these are all our top ten wide receivers, the only thing you can really point out are question marks that might differentiate them between somebody else. He's my number four receiver.

[00:37:17]

Yeah, you hate him. All right. Number six, Kenny G.

[00:37:22]

Oh, so smooth. Kenny Golladay, oh, my. When it's Kenny's turn, you let it play a little longer. That's right. And let me tell you a little bit. Ba ba ba boo.

[00:37:36]

About Kenny Golladay blow Kenny Golladay. He already had the size. He already had the the build the athletic profile to be a superstar NFL wide receiver.

[00:37:52]

And you kind of you were seeing those flashes in his first few years. And I'm going to again, I'm going to refer to the route running. He had a major improvement in his reception perception. Scores of he is now turning from a guy who who could rely on just his natural athletic ability and size to someone who is becoming a polished route runner. And that, look, if he keeps taking those steps, Kenny Golladay will be elite. Darrell Bevell, The O.C. he just recently had an interview and they look narratively fine.

[00:38:29]

But this we got to go off of Bevels said, I want Kenny Golladay to be mentioned with DeAndre Hopkins, with Michael Thomas. That's what he wants. And he's the he's the one who will help turn Kenny Golladay into that. But I mean, of course, he is there is there any is there any offensive coordinator in the league that doesn't want his wide receiver, one to be mentioned with the greatest, but they don't they don't say it because sometimes it's stupid.

[00:38:55]

Can't say with a straight face for many players in his situation, it is interesting because he is one of only three players with double digit touchdowns last year. He also doesn't do it on, you know, it's one hundred and sixteen targets the year before. One hundred nineteen targets did it with different quarterback play. They started to trust Stafford to be the driver of the offense last year. Kindergarten. I have them up at five. Oh, Mike, you do too.

[00:39:17]

Yeah. Look, I love kindergarten. It belongs in that in that group. And his draft position is interesting because if you ended up with the first pick in the draft, you can come back in the third round with Kenny Golladay and a lot of drafts and I would be very happy to do it. Like, he gets air yards, he gets he gets high volume or high quality targets for fantasy points. He gets end zone targets. He gets big plays.

[00:39:38]

He gets big plays. I get it. I would love for Kenny Golladay to get one hundred and fifty targets, but he doesn't have to have that to be a a very consistent wide receiver, one I won't have if I can change your mind at least.

[00:39:53]

Yeah, but now that's a trust. Yeah, I just I don't I don't know what it is about, is it the sixty five or. Yes, you get the number.

[00:40:06]

So statistically I know what it is I don't like, you know, we just talked down Tyreek Hill and the consistency factor because you know TYREEK is probably an 85 reception guy but at least he has Pat Mahomes in the highest scoring offense, more touchdown opportunities, even even deeper yards per reception capability than than Golladay despite the height. You know Golladay is a player to me that is scary. I believe that Detroit wants to run the ball.

[00:40:39]

I mean, that's clearly what Darrell Bevell would thirtieth year running. They're on what they want to do.

[00:40:45]

That's what they invested in DeAndre Swift. Now, even when I project that, I don't think they're going to be able to, but I do believe that's their desire. I don't think they want Stafford to lead a high powered offense, because that's that's not what Patricia has ever been. That's not what Darrell Bevell has ever been until this last year where we had an eight game stretch before Stafford got injured, where he was amazing. And I think we're just extrapolating too much out of that to say this Lions offense was Stafford and Golladay and Marvin Jones is just going to be explosive.

[00:41:14]

And the reality is the difference between Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Is significant is its major goal, like I love Marvin Jones, Marvin Jones is the value pick in every single draft except for the ones where I end up picking Kenny Golladay in the third round. Marvin Jones is because he can get you a touchdown, he can get you three touchdown weeks, but he's not consistent. Kenny Golladay is the number one. It's it's not I don't have that feeling of projecting going like last year it was while Kenny Golladay, I don't know if I want to pay up because could he is he actually the number one or is it one A, one B, they're going to be going back and forth.

[00:42:00]

Last year to me wrote the story. It's Kenny Golladay is elite and he's only getting paid last year that wrote the story for you where Marvin Jones got injured in a game and left early and all that.

[00:42:14]

Kenny Golladay averaged thirteen and a half fantasy points per game, Marvin Jones twelve and a half. And so, yes, there is a difference. So consistency. Sure, my point is that these are I mean, you can get Marvin Jones in the eighth ninth round. I mean, he nobody wants Marvin Jones, whereas Kenny Golladay, you're paying up. And I just fear that if this is a 65 catch guy who doesn't end up near 10 touchdowns, he's going to disappoint you.

[00:42:44]

Yeah, I mean, I don't read much into the points per game piece because it's just Marvin doing his three touchdown thing and then disappearing for seven weeks. But yeah, I mean, there's always more risk, like Jason saying with a sixty five touchdown guy reminds me of Vincent Jackson. You know, Vince Jackson was a monstrous big play guy, double digit touchdown potential. The question is whether Golladay can take another step forward. I believe he can. I believe this offense will be Matthew Stafford's much in the way it was with Calvin Johnson.

[00:43:13]

He's just the driver. So I'd like to see the I think that's why we like Stafford at the back of drafts. But sixty five receptions moves Golladay down.

[00:43:21]

Golladay could be one of the best wide receivers in the league. He has the talent, the skill. If he was a one hundred and forty target type of player, a possession guy, as well as a deep threat, he would dominate fantasy. So that's why I get it. I love can Égalité. I just I don't think that's his role and I don't enjoy that in on my fantasy team. All right.

[00:43:42]

Number seven with Amari Cooper coming in at number seven.

[00:43:49]

You're welcome, Mike. This is my fault. This is my source. Also Jason's fault.

[00:43:54]

I think it's Mike's. I think it's Imari Cooper's fault. Um, it's my fault that he's this low. Yes. I have him for Jason at six, Mike at twelve. Well documented.

[00:44:06]

Somehow I still have them ranked above ADP.

[00:44:09]

This is ridiculous. Yeah. I mean, Amari Cooper hate myself for it. Weeks one through ten last year. Four reception, pays fifteen hundred yards, pays 13 touchdown pace, very consistent, back half of the year.

[00:44:25]

We prefer to blot that out. We actually deleted it from the player profile on the website. It just says error code.

[00:44:31]

You guys clearly did with your rankings.

[00:44:33]

That would be fifty nine four seven seventy nine. No, I don't I don't read too much into the back half of the year. No know doesn't. I think this is one of the best off. What about, what about when he did it two years ago for Dallas. He did not want the back half of the year when he played two years ago for Dallas, he was a no. What about the first half of the year when he played for a different team?

[00:44:52]

He wasn't as good.

[00:44:55]

I mean, it's just a matter of this is a flag planting player, if you believe that America can help your fantasy team, you know, you believe it is going to be one of the best in the league every year.

[00:45:05]

He's extremely inconsistent. He has half of his game's great, half of his game suck. But if you dive deeper, I think there is rationale. And and here's the thing. At the end of this year, it's going to be proven right. He's either going to have had another inconsistent year and Mike will be shirtless, running down the street with a with a cap on flying.

[00:45:26]

To be fair, I want to marry Cooper to succeed. I think he can be a top notch fantasy player.

[00:45:33]

This is just boy who cried wolf at this point. Yeah, Mike, I'm just. Look, if I if I missed the year that Amari Cooper finally became a season long league winning type wide receiver, so be it.

[00:45:47]

Amari Cooper is the reason that Brooks doesn't try anything new on the menu, because there's there's just it's the risk reward factor. If he just, you know, Amari Cooper, I got him at four, right? I mean, that's pretty high up there. You could take somebody just much more safe for consumption.

[00:46:03]

He is not a club sandwich. He's not a club. Oh, I love a club sandwich. No, he's he's the menu item. We go, oh, they have that here. They've got Kraft Mac and cheese. Really they have.

[00:46:12]

So it's not Kraft made such difficult to make. It's a you know, it's a lava cake. You know, one of those like very difficult to make desserts where they could be ruined or. Oh my goodness, this is great. Yeah. But I think they've figured out how to cook with Amari Cooper. And here's the thing. This is why I say if you if you dig a little deeper, the back half of the year when he was traded to Dallas, he was phenomenal.

[00:46:35]

Then he comes out and is phenomenal. Is the wide receiver three through those first ten weeks, gets injured, is hobbled, is on the field as a decoy, sucks obviously the rest of the season. And so the question and then they paid him one hundred million dollars. So the question is people make one hundred million dollar mistakes.

[00:46:52]

His ATP is really low. I have him, although I would I would estimate through with this ADP. Yes, I will. I am willing to draft Amari Cooper.

[00:47:02]

The last thing I will say about him is two of the last three years against press coverage. He is finished in the bottom twenty two percent. He cannot get off a jam. You don't want to know what wide receivers can't get off of. James Cooper Kupp, Tyler Boyd, Juju Smith, Schuster, Jamison Crowder. What are what's what's the common commonality between those four guys? Those are slot wide receivers. Amari Cooper is not a true number one.

[00:47:32]

He is not a true X receiver in honestly, I care that Omari like he's coming for the addition of Cedi Lamb might actually be way better for Amari Cooper because now you have someone else who can run on the outside and you can just keep moving. Amari Cooper around hoping that that a that a good cornerback doesn't see him. Oh, no.

[00:47:53]

Oh no. DeAndre Hopkins comes in at number eight. DeAndre Hopkins.

[00:48:00]

Yeah. Oh man. You know what? He's not getting the celebration dance bump in our rankings.

[00:48:07]

Yeah, he is the wide receiver for by ADP. He is eight on our consensus rankings eight, five and fourteen that it would be me, Jason and Mike. And that is a pretty big disparity for a player that is finished first, second and fifth the last three years. And whose Houston makes me makes me very sad where I have him ranked and Hopkins could he could be installed in Arizona and just be the target machine like he was for Houston.

[00:48:38]

I'm just I just don't see it happening that way.

[00:48:40]

You have an air raid offense where, like Kliff, Kingsbury wants to run five wide receivers out on the field. And when you have five wide receivers out there all the time, you don't force feed a guy. Thirty percent of your targets. Rich Rebar did a study on alpha elite wide receivers who changed teams and then had an ADP of being a wide receiver one. And by his calculation, there were six players who have done this in the past ten years and only one of them actually finished as a wide receiver.

[00:49:14]

One changing teams was the Brandon Marshall. I believe it was Brandon Marshall. Yeah. I mean, that's the one that sticks out. It's hard to do. I have had Hopkins in zero draft. Yeah. And I have him, but he's number one in my heart. Oh, for sure. And I hope he dominates and he will dominate in real football because he's fantastic. I have him at number five. I have him the highest. I actually think he has a good year.

[00:49:38]

There is no chance that I draft him in any league that I'm in because he's being drafted at that position where he has to hit and the variables are monumental.

[00:49:49]

You're talking about a player who has averaged one hundred and sixty six targets. Going all the way back to 2015, I can't get him there, he's one hundred and forty target guy, even with a faster pace of play. And so could he dominate for Arizona with a faster pace of play, higher scoring offense potentially, yes. But could he be nowhere near the value that you have to draft? Matt? Absolutely. You know, when we're just trying to make the highest odd, predictable choice, if you're too much somebody so much risk for me with Hopkins at that cost, obviously he's going to be good in general, but it's.

[00:50:31]

Will he pay off if you drafted?

[00:50:33]

Are we starting to get into some bigger question marks now? D.J., more No.9. Mike's got him up at seven, Jason at ten. I have him at twelve. D.J. Moore last year finished as the wide receiver. Eighteen.

[00:50:45]

D.J. Moore was the wide receiver ten before he went out at the beginning of a game with a concussion and then missed the next week. D.G. Moore. Was actually pretty great, like he was averaging six receptions in eighty four yards, and this was from Kyle Allen who had the thirty fifth best passer rating in the league. Thirty fifth. Now he gets to best take you now against Kyle.

[00:51:10]

Teddy Bridgewater last year was 11th in passer rating. We know that is accurate. We know that he can hit a player in stride. So to me it's D.J. Moore is he's an athletic freak, but 10th and targets last year. He is a focal point of this offense. And if he can get someone who is more accurate and actually hitting him in stride more often, I really think that more can be great. And he was the wide receiver, ten and half point PPR, like I said before, going out.

[00:51:41]

And that's only scoring four touchdowns.

[00:51:44]

Yeah, I was going to say D.J. Moore's narrative here is really if though, you know, as opposed to like Kenny Golladay overcame the blow experience and who was the other? They had multiple non starford quarterbacks last year. I can't remember the other guy's name, but Golladay kind of overcame that. Still had the fantasy finish that was strong last year. D.J. Moore ended up as the wide receiver, 18. We haven't projected higher than that by a by a wide margin.

[00:52:10]

It's it's noticing the touchdown totals. We're down. It's if Teddy Bridgewater is is going to be a big improvement, it's if Matt Rule is able to use the AJ more in the same capacity with the target share last year. One hundred and thirty five targets. Does that go up with Teddy Bridgewater? No doubt of the talent, more questions around D.J. more than other wide receivers because of those variables, new quarterback, new head coach, tough division is more going to be the centerpiece.

[00:52:40]

Robby Anderson also coming in.

[00:52:42]

Yeah, this this is there are variables here. And we just talked about DeAndre Hopkins. Both these guys have massive variables, different schemes, different quarterbacks. One of them you have to draft as the fourth wide receiver, one of them as the 15th wide receiver. And obviously, Hopkins has a longer history. He's done it. That's that's why he's being drafted there. But the value is more with more because, I mean, look here, what do we know about what do we know about Carolina?

[00:53:11]

Since we since there's a lot we don't know, we know their defense is going to be terrible. Yeah, we know that D.J. Moore is an athletic freak. Yeah. We also know that he pretty much dominated in the games that he played in. So if he takes another step forward in that third year with an offensive system, that's that's coming in. You know, Teddy Bridgewater, how was Michael Thomas when Teddy Bridgewater was the quarterback? Just fine.

[00:53:37]

So we know he can support someone. And I think that D.J. Moore's role close to the line of scrimmage, a lot of screen games they manufacture touches for him because he's so fast.

[00:53:46]

I think the ADP is the big key here. I mean, you're not if you're getting imit between wide receiver 12 and 15, you're not taking the kind of risk that you would with someone else. I am kind of you know, last year it was all is Curtis Samuel or D.J. Moore. Which guy is going to be the difference maker? We've already illustrated how bad the quarterback was. Thirty fifth best passer rating. That affects somebody like Curtis Samuel as well.

[00:54:08]

And the gap is is just so immense.

[00:54:10]

I mean, Curtis Samuels, a undrafted 14th round guy, D.G. Moore is a fourth round early fourth pick.

[00:54:17]

Curtis Samuel is an excellent post hype sleeper. He was he was open. He just for some reason, they decided last year, Curtis, Samuel, you're going to go out and you just run fly routes. You run run a nine down the field. And we'll see.

[00:54:31]

We'll see if I can get you this time. Oh, shucks, no. He missed again. Well, but we'll try it on the next play. Yeah.

[00:54:38]

So I think it will be interesting to watch D.J. more Carolina in general, like you talk about. The questionmark teams and what you're what you're going to get out of it, I'll be watching them closely. I mean, Kamps going to be interesting. They have a running back that catches the ball over a hundred times, you know, and you mix in Samuell, you mix in Robby Anderson, and then you still have to get more volume. I think we all agree if D.J. Moore doesn't have volume in this.

[00:55:02]

Oh, yeah. It's going to be a huge problem for the upside. Yeah, I completely agree with that, because D.J. Moore is a he's a slot wide receiver.

[00:55:10]

He has to have volume and coming in at number 10 is another one, that is volume type player Robert Woods makes the top 10. All this the respect that we've been just searching for Robert his entire career.

[00:55:23]

Mr. Woods, I hope you hear this. We have you as a top 10 FCC wide receiver. That's right. Welcome. Welcome in to the top 10 and game respect game. Go ahead and come on the show any time you'd like. Last year was a incredible only two touchdowns for Robert Woods.

[00:55:39]

This bizarre is being 90 receptions. Eleven hundred yards, two touchdowns, his back half of the year pace. Take it for what you will. One hundred and eighty target pace. One hundred and twenty reception pace. One hundred or fifteen hundred yards. I mean, that is a dominant I respect him, but I'm not going to give him 15 years, you know, and that's not really his M.O. I mean, if you're in a PR league, people have asked this question a lot.

[00:56:05]

I'm 100 percent comfortable with Robert Woods is my wide receiver, one in a PPR league.

[00:56:11]

He is going to get the rock a lot. Him and Cooper Kupp, they are the pass catchers on the outside. They're going to have the opportunities. And, you know, whether they go to personnel more, whether they use the tight end more, it doesn't really matter to me. Robert Woods is the linchpin of the passing offense, the passing offense that throws the ball more than anybody in football. And what really just undermined his whole season was just the total touchdowns.

[00:56:34]

And two is just, you know, maybe he's a five or six guy, but two is just outlandish.

[00:56:38]

Well, and that's what he is. I mean, he's I remember a game early in the season where he just completely missed a toe tap in the end zone. And he's he's a five or six touchdown guy, but he's consistent. He gets the ball. He is. You know, I made this argument last year for him and it seemed poor in the very beginning when Cooper Kupp got off to a strong start. But I believe he is the first read.

[00:57:03]

He is the first target in this offense at Cooper. Kupp is better around the end zone, but if you just want the consistency from fantasy production knowing he's on the field, you know, you saw at the end of last season when Cobb and cooks were kind of splitting time in the snap percentages. Sixty in the sixty percent range. Robert Woods doesn't leave the field. Robert Woods is always out. There is always the number one read for a great offense.

[00:57:27]

Sean McVay, we you know, we've put our trust in him as fantasy, you know, players. So Robert Woods is just phenomenal. And if the touchdowns happen to come up, if he gets eight, if Robert Woods gets eight touchdowns, he's a guaranteed top ten wide receiver. He's basically been a top, you know, twelve wide receiver for, you know, his pace the previous two seasons was great. And he's cheap. Nobody want he is not flashy.

[00:57:55]

You know, the Cup and Woods both are as unflashy a wide receiver cause it gets and they're phenomenal in both real life and fantasy.

[00:58:06]

And to be clear, we have him ranked by consensus at ten. That does not mean you draft him. Oh, no. You take that value. He is currently the wide receiver. Seventeen, but feels very safe. You know, when you think think about the types of wide receivers we've talked about today. Some are in that boom bust category. Robert Woods is not going to lose your week. He might not win you a week, but he's going to be a stabilizing force for your your fantasy role.

[00:58:30]

If you look at the wide receiver. Seventeen finish. So two years ago, he was a top ten fantasy wide receiver at the end of the year. And the only difference is, you know, a couple of yards, but is the four touchdowns. If if Robert Woods simply hit his regular five to six touchdowns, he would have been a wide receiver once again. Yeah. And this is why.

[00:58:51]

Look look at these players. Right. Robert Woods, fourth round pick, George Moore, basically a fourth round pick. He's at the three twelve. You've got Amari Cooper, fourth round pick. This is why I was talking about on the last episode when we were talking about the running backs. Eleven through twenty with these big questionmark guys, the David Johnson and Todd Gurley, Chris Carson, those players. They're all going in the same round as guys we have as our top in our top 10 at wide receiver, so get the top 10 running backs in the top 10 wide receivers.

[00:59:26]

All right.

[00:59:26]

That's going to wrap it up for today's episode of the podcast. I encourage you to check out Ultimate Draft Kit Dotcom. If you're if you're in that mode right now or you're ready for the season if you just want to win fantasy football.

[00:59:38]

Either way, either way, the drafts are coming. We got a one month from the season.

[00:59:43]

I cannot wait to what do we get? Sean McVay masks Sean McVay tonight.

[00:59:47]

Yeah, we all do. Yeah. She'll face shield kind of sounds a little bit like Jon Gruden. You know what I said. Oh, big time. If were McVeigh, I'd have to face shield as well. Too handsome. Hide behind the mask. Right. We'll catch you tomorrow. See you tomorrow. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy football podcast, join our fantasy football community on Join the Dotcom and follow us on Twitter at the Fabulous.