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Coming up, there are more to the Sixers masters, two thousand twenty odds, million dollar picks and a deep dive into the election. I can't do better than that. All coming up. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Dotcom and the Ringer podcast network where, as usual, we're crushing it this week, including to watch HBO's podcast Rockit, for which I've always wanted to do, and The Exorcist, the first great modern horror movie. Both of those are up on the watch BuzzFeed.


And if you love all the watchable pads, you can find every single one of them on Spotify. The entire library is only available on Spotify. Coming up, Joe House, I are to talk basketball masters, millions, our picks and then Bakari Sellers and Harry Evans from CNN. We're going to talk about the election. So first project.


All right, he hasn't been out in a while because he's been busy with us. He's hosting Fareway rolling out golf podcast, and he's also posting on Fridays an excellent podcast of Warren Sharp on the Ringer NFL show that is breaking down the gambling trends heading into every weekend so you can listen to house twice. Listen him here also listening with Sharp. And I feel like your football betting is getting better. I feel like Sharp has made you raise it a notch.


And I don't feel like you're a full fledged moron anymore with gambling. And now I feel like you're like an occasional moron. Thank you for that.


I accept that. I think that is progress. I will say two things have happened since starting the podcast with Warren Sharpe this year in the first place. And this was bad for me at the beginning of the season. I bet so many more games on so many different angles than I ever have in my entire life because of the natural curiosity, the conversations I'm having with Warren. Let's try this theory out. Yeah, you know, in a one off moment, you're you're more likely to lose than to win.


And I was doing a lot of that. There were lots of L's on that that betting dance card, but a lot of experimentation. That's it. I mean, you know, Kyle was just telling me about his experience with the Patriots this year. It feels like BDM. And I told Kyle he didn't have to, you know, go deep with me about about his BDM experimentation. But I was doing the same kind of thing with the betting card early this season.


I have kind of turned the corner. I had a nice winning weekend. It was a four digit. Our return on investment last week for me was a couple of Parley's in there, a couple of teasers and the season is starting to make sense. Finally, that that's the way I feel. I thought you were going to say you had BDM experience really for the Washington professional football team for the twenty first century because you have that tip.


Well, they just did the Dallas I mean, that was an extraordinarily happy ending. Yeah, that's true. All right. We're talk about football later. You do belong to our picks. Wanted to talk about their Amaury going to the Sixers first. There have been rumblings about this. He leaves Houston. It's always suspicious when somebody leaves a very high paying, lucrative safe job. With seemingly nothing next, and I assumed he was going to do one of those back psychobilly being stolen and just get some hedge funds, you know, he's taken over the Philadelphia Seventy Sixers and there's been a lot written, a lot guess about where this might go.


First of all, I was happy for him as his friend, unhappy as the Celtics fan. I don't want there more in my division. That sucks. Second, you know, real ramifications here with the league for these next five years because they have two of the best 15 players in the NBA right now, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons to the best fifteen sixteen. Whatever your list is there on it. And there's been this question about sustainability with those two guys.


So naturally every everybody's mind jumps to. Which one of them is going? Which one is Darro going to trade? I'm going to give you my thoughts in a second on this, because I have specific clear thoughts on it. But what was your take when you heard about the date on this?


Well, in the first place, I wasn't surprised at all to hear that he was moving on. You mentioned in the setup to this that you thought that his job in Houston was safe. I didn't think that at all. I mean, between the China thing, well, his contract his contract was safe, I guess I should say.


OK, well, it was guaranteed safe, guaranteed his money was safe, that the bank was safe, the wallet was safe. The standing with the league and with Homeboy frittata was not good. I'm going to call him frittata. I mean, I like I just call him that said, it's too complicated, but he probably hates. Right, right. And based on some of the stories that came out about some of the constraints that Darryl was operating within in terms of budget and salary cap stuff, I'm sure that he was thinking about a next stop, a potential option for him.


This sexers thing really opened up quite beautifully for him. I mean, talk about winners and losers from the bubble experience. The Sixers flame out, which was eminently predictable, even in the absence of the injuries, really created this this dynamic within the organization for them to want to hit the reset button. And they have done so in pretty dramatic ways. I'm excited for Darrell.


Well, they hired Doc before Darrell. Doc and Darrell worked together in Boston when Darrell was a young, precocious, advanced metrics guy. During an era where most people in the NBA didn't know what advanced metrics were. My memory of this relationship was that Doc was not a huge fan of the numbers. Oh.


So now we fast forward 13, 14 years later, 14 years later, Dock's gets fired from the Clippers that got fired regardless of what the with the articles at Duck Duck that got canned and paid off to leave. One of the reasons was because of the advanced metrics thing and the Clippers had this super expensive, you know, this big front office, they have this guy, Winger, who is probably the most expensive advanced metrics guy in the league. They're showing all these numbers.


Hey, when you play Herot against Yokich, it's a disaster. They're like their offensive ratings, like 140. Don't do that. And hey, Lou Williams in the playoffs is is just awful. Don't don't play him as much. And he's just not listening. He's like, I know my guys. He gets fired. Now he's with Darro, who, you know, is kind of was was the Lewis and Clark of this the genre. So I'm watching out for that, but.


My where my mind drifted because everyone's like, who is he trading? Here's the thing about Darrell and I've known him for 15 years. He has always been the same. And we've talked about this on Pacas. He's a two star guy. His goal was always to have two stars, so. Right. So he starts with the rockets. One of the reasons he goes there, they have Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and they have a nice little run with those guys.


And Yao breaks down. Tracy breaks down. Now they have no stars. Gozal inat Hardin. It's got another star. All right, I got to get him a second star who's got to gets Dwight Howard, gives Dwight Howard huge free agent contract. Now, I got to say, that doesn't quite work out to get to the conference finals, Noble Experiment, Dwight hits a different point of his career. Now he's back to one star. What does he do?


Goes to get Chris Paul. Now I've got my second Sargon. Gets two years out of that, then the fatigue is dumb and dumber, end up convincing him to make the Westborough trade, which I think now we know that was Darrel's trade, but it was the same two star system. So my default with this Philly thing. Sorry for the long winded explanation. He's going to have two stars if he's trading one of those two guys, he's getting a star back, he's not going to go from two stars to one.


He's not making the three quarters for a dollar trade or even two fifty cent pieces for a dollar. That's not how he rose. He wants the two stars because then he feels like he's one of the best people in the league from a front office standpoint of finding the peripheral guys to put around the two stars. So my question for you, house. Will these be the two stars or is going to one of them for another star? What is more likely to you?


Well, that that's obviously the question on the tip of everybody's tongue, because the stat that made all the rounds immediately after news of this broke was dropped. One of his Woj bombs on Wednesday was how many trades Darrell has made. And you know that that he is a frequent dabbler and very committed to trying to put his franchise in the very best position. I want to do very quickly, a quick bit of sympathy for Doc and whatever he ran into in terms of the analytics with the Clippers and led to his defense, wasn't expecting this a quick bit of sympathy.


Paul George was fucking terrible, like he was atrocious. And if I don't know what the advanced analytics suggested about the likelihood of success of Paul, George and Kawhi Leonard in a non bubble circumstance, because I'm sure that the Clippers had a thesis for why that combination might work, but they didn't run a downside scenario, a bubble scenario. Well, Paul, George was going to show up with a gigantic pitchfork and try to stab all his teammates in their in their butts running around.


I mean, he was so he hit the side of the backboard. That is the Clippers meme for the entire playoff experience. It demeaned and diminished the Clippers standing and they have a problem that they have to try and solve now going forward. So I'm on doc side in terms of this year, on doc side, this is like you want a job with Philly.


Oh, I was kidding me. I texted Darryl. I would know nothing would make me happier than maybe a hired drunk house player personnel. I'm sure that would be really helpful to them. But in terms of of what to anticipate out of Darryl, I think this very first year I anticipate nothing in terms of those two guys. I think Embiid and Simmons are going to be there. He is going to let Doc do his thing. He'll have suggestions.


I think the really interesting thing is who he will put around those guys this season. I think the two huge needs to me for Philly are point guard and somebody that can make a gosh darn three pointer. And there's a point guard out there that Daryl has some experience with, has a track record with, and there are odds up today on where this player will land. And Philly was not on the list and I couldn't believe it.


Chris is his salary is too high. Well, they could work it out. Like, how about this? If you're going to go all in, if you're Josh Harris, co-editor of the Apollo doesn't matter, make it work. Come up with spend the money, spend the money. Do you want to try and put yourself like Bernie Sanders, like this pie in the sky?


No, no. Just spend the money. It'll happen. It's not pie in the sky. I think they're really limited. They they the only trade pieces they have a Josh Richardson is like ten million a year ball and like future first round picks is a oxes that you talk about. Chris Paul. I am not taking Horford back and then why not Tobias Harris back isn't it because smart he doesn't want to.


Horford Horford has less years than Chris Paul at this point doesn't he. Like there's some some advantage for us to. Well it has to plus a payout for the four for the fourth season.


Well it's a tough one there is there. I just think that there are ways of fighting teams that could use those players. I mean I trust there's a little bit of a blind faith sort of element to the idea that the first Horford for Heyward.


Now, Boston says to mean why. After her first season last year, which if you're trading firm, you would talk yourself into his playing out of position, it was weird. It was a weird season. Coaching thing was weird.


Everything was wrong. There's still some real statistical signs that he has had a different phase of his career, like he's not bad in the same way as a block shots, the same way I was mainly Joe IRA.


There really wasn't it wasn't a joke for Philly fans. It's you're talking about trading Horford and Harris like their ears perk up, right.


I mean the most fun trade on the planet. That the most fun NBA trade we can make right now for any team is just and be it for your hard and straight up is just so wonderful and so many different ways. I mean, they would have felt you'd have to throw in another salary to make it work, but it gives them beat his own team in Houston with Westbrook, which is just a bizarre combo. It would be riveting to watch.


I don't even know how that would play out. And then from the Philly side, you now you've solved how do I play all these bigger guys together? You have a closer there's a weird Ben Simmons dynamic that probably doesn't work out, which is probably maybe why they don't do it. But it's just would be so riveting to watch.


It can still happen. It just might happen a year from now or several months from now. I think the first thing that Philly needs to do is do a little bit of rehabilitation with Joel Embiid. Let's really push his value up by having him go through. I don't know how long this offseason is going to be.


It seems like it's only going to be, it's going to be short days or so, but like hopefully they're with him right now and a nutritionist and a dietician and a cardio machine or several cardio machines and a swimming pool. And we're going to see Joel Embiid arrive in the best shape of his life.


We have to know every year, every year, everywhere here. Why can't it happen while chamber. That won't work either. Well there in twenty eight in the shape this year. The other way to do it is to let him use the regular season to get in shape and watch minutes. Try and just get him prepared for for the playoff run. But when, when are we going to see the Joel Embiid in shape. The franchise under the previous iteration and administration was not in a position to impose any kind of institutional controls around him.


I don't know why they couldn't convince him to get in shape, but maybe Doc and Daryl can convince him to get in shape. Well, so Doc can. You would think build the relationship between Embiid and Simmons, you would think. I say that you would think because I want to Lubutu how do you say it? Well, here's the thing. I can't say the Clippers had awesome chemistry really dating back to the Chris Paul thing. And at some point that Clippers team, the chemistry was really bad the last couple of years they were with Blake and CP and all those dudes and I was going in the game.


Let's talk about it when I was doing TV. And then they would get mad at me. And the Clippers said, Why do you say that? Why are you saying Chris and Blake don't get along? Because I'm at the game watching them interact. So then that happens. And then last year, another chemistry disaster with that, with a whole new bunch of clippers.


Well, I saw one play. This is an indication one way or the other of any chemistry why he a team, because it was one hundred year pandemic that that they were that we were dealing with.


I think their chemistry was a little goofy before the pandemic. If they were really up and down and everyone's excuses like, oh, they these guys, they just can't find a rhythm. They haven't played enough games together. That's all true.


They had barely played ten games together and they were gathering my playoffs. Miami made the finals. They hadn't played together. I don't know. I think that gets a little bit of a free ride for this stuff. At the same time, I think he's a really good coach, but I think he's a good coach when the situation is a good situation. This is always this is a good situation, we hope. I think it is. You have no idea.


You and I have no idea, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons can. Be the two best players on a final scene, but I want to see it, I want to see it play out, I don't feel like I'm satisfied with the evidence we have. Right. We have no evidence. We have what we have to point to Toronto series. The Toronto series is decent evidence, good up. It's like the ball bounces around. If it goes to overtime, who knows?


Maybe they make the finals. Yeah. So. So anyway, I'm watching. I think you're right. I think your instincts are right. I think he tries to fill in the fringes. With the stuff he's really good at finding these Danielle house and and Shane Battier, that is the best example.


But even like the Ben Macklemore, all the reclamation project that are the roll guys or somebody like PJ Tucker who is bouncing around, never really found the right team, Darrel's really good at finding those guys. And another thing that he loves to do, sorry to give away our secrets. See, by the way, these aren't secrets. He told me. I've just I've been following for 15 years. He loves betting on failed buy lottery tickets or high lottery picks who never hit their potential.


But maybe it wasn't their fault. Like Daryl traded for Hasheem to beat, he traded for Johnny Flynn. I think he might have had Darko. Don't don't quote me on that. But he's he's over and over. He rolled the dice with guys drafted in the top seven because their thinking is like maybe it's a change of scenery will make it work.


Are you saying here on the B.S. podcast that MARKELLE Fultz is going back to the 60s?


Are you. Is that what you're saying. That say that. No.


Is it because I mean I could see it. I could see. Well my question with Daryl, he's so they create a team in the 07 08 that really nice Rockets team. Right. That was built around Yao and Tracy and then Yao couldn't stay healthy, but that was like an old school traditional type of team. Then they build this dishearten team that eventually becomes what that team became, which was 3s and free throws. I don't think necessarily darel that's his mantra is like, here's how to play basketball threes and free throws.


I think he tries to pick whatever the right system is for the players to have. And it's something like that to compare it to Pat Riley. But one of the reasons Pat Riley is so interesting is his Showtime Lakers and then goes and does this Ewing next thing. And it's a completely different style. And then in Miami and a one in two things, I'd be really interested to see Darrell put together a contender that's not the threes and free throws tomorrow.


And it's actually more of an old school model that uses these two guys who I think we both think are pretty special. They're just weird. They're unique players.


Or to be fair, one of the things that is part of Darryl's model that got kind of forgotten is he loves shots around the rim. He likes high percentage shots, and he has two guys who are super capable of high percentage shots if they can come up with a system to put them in the very best position. If we can see Joel Embiid inside of eight feet around the basket if we can see Ben Simmons playing some power forward that the Sixers flirted with and that they they claim they might unleash in the bubble and then we saw absolutely none of it and then he got hurt.


I mean there are, he has those pieces in place to fit the model that he likes. I mean, let's let's see these guys in the best possible situation they can be in to maximize those those talents. What's your question, Jim? What's his name? Uh, hold on, Tommy Shepherd. That's Tommy Shepherd, of course, the Tommy Farmer above the rim start. Tommy Shepherd went from playing outside without a border running the Wizards. All right.


You're going to be Tommy Shepherd. I'm going to be Darryl. Tommy Stero, how are you? What up, D? Hey, look, man, I'm just going to cut to the chase. Let's talk about a deal with Ben Simmons and Bradley Beal in it. What are your thoughts? OK, what do you have in mind? I feel like you have to throw in a tiny bit more, maybe like I got to pick Swap and twenty three, something like that.


I think Ben Simmons is younger. He's got he's got a longer contract. You can build your team around him maybe like a twenty three top. Two protected pics swap and we'll just call it in the league, no chance I'm not doing that. Bradley Beal is better than and more valuable than Ben Ben Simmons right now. At this moment, he's certainly more durable, four years older. He's demonstrated the ability to lead a team. He almost led the league in scoring this year.


And he took our franchise by our Washington franchise and made it semi interesting for about fifteen games in an otherwise said semi. Interested in who? The people that the Congo, the ten people who attended those Washington basketball games.


No, what they were they were fun to watch you forget already because it feels like ten lifetimes ago they had these incredible scoring games. There's no defense whatsoever, right?


Tommy, stop selling, man. The Wizards and I straight up forget the picks up Ben Simmons for Beal We'll call it in right now. It's a great deal Let's do it. I would do that in a heartbeat. I think that's a great trade.


I have no inside info about aggregators. Don't aggregate this and say Bob, I'm making this up on the spot. I just think that I want to see Ben Simmons. I care more about the Simmons piece than the Embiid piece on that team. I just want to see Simmons run a team. I want to see him in a team with an offense built around him and all the things he's good at do his thing. I think it'd be fun if he just like he takes over the Wizards.


And just kind of does his thing, and then if you're filea, you've solved that weird Simmons Abeed thing that nobody really could figure out what to do with, now you have a real perimeter guy. Now Dhara can work his magic and try to patch together the point guard position and now I'm in. If Embiid shows up in shape Now I can think about a title. The problem for Washington is John Wall. They have a John Wall problem. Yeah, you have to figure out how giving the team to Ben Simmons, which I think is absolutely the right move without hesitation or reservation.


But what do you do with Wall? Is he on board with it? Is he going to be supportive? And you just have to run out his contract unless the new collective bargaining agreement, whenever that comes around, offers a new amnesty clause and you can get rid of them. I mean, here, here's the great thing, though.


And this is where the Wizards can hire you as a consultant. You've had decades and decades of experience of being stuck with a team that didn't know what to do with somebody on an expensive contract that had a couple years to go figure that you could you could fucking teach a class on this. At this point, you could do a Masters class of Georgetown where it's running out, running out the last three years of somebody's horrific contract. Hey, guys, today we talk about Gilbert Arenas and yeah, you on this podcast two years ago, two thousand and seventeen, I posited that the Wizards in that moment should have stretched John Wall under the stretch provisions of the collective bargaining agreement.


And I love honor actually help me, you know, extend a graphic out that showed it. I mean, it was clear it was apparent then that the most important player on the team was Bradley Beal. That hasn't changed in two years. And so, you know, if we get Ben Simmons some some young blood and by the way, the reason he's so attractive, that dude plays defense well on him to win Defensive Player of the year. And he was in the conversation.


He finished top five.


I couldn't agree more. He actually gives a shit. He sure does. I'm not sure one hundred percent what he is yet, but I think he plays hard and I think he needs I would just build an entire team around. This stuff is going to anyway. I can't wait to see what Daryl does. I hope it doesn't conflict with my Celtics in every game. Yeah, but this is a story that makes the NBA more fun with Doc Daryle.


We have possibilities for bunch of trades. You have all the Philly fans. The process is kind of weirdly alive. Now, Daryl comes in to extend the process and we have the frittatas in Houston and and now there they are. We'll show Daryl we're smarter than that guy, even though we got into basketball eighteen months ago. And and we get to watch that when James Harden and that that is going to happen. That is Scott.


I just can't believe how how dark it was for Philly, really, like just a month ago with the basketball team in their football team and now their football team is going to win the NFC East and their basketball team is not just relevant, super interesting, super exciting. And, you know, I think in the running to finish top four in the East, well, Brand, who is in just an incredibly nice guy by all accounts, and I feel bad criticize him anyway.


But the the last two years that he put together. Is borderline iconic and did not do Tobias Harris, you just can't make that mistake.


It's I think I feel like even Ernie Grunfeld would have cringed a couple of times, but that's a Grunfeld move if there ever was one of overpaint. Tobias. Yeah, Ernie sets out the text. Congrats. Congrats, man. You locked him. You locked it down. Five years later, you did it. All right.


We'll take a break and talk basters in million dollar pics. All right, quickly before we get to million dollar pics. The Masters, let's talk about it, the commercials are out this week. Oh, yeah. Do you think the commercials should be used as an erectile dysfunction drug? Because I do feel the blood surge to my groin every time I see a masters that I mean, whether they're intended for that use or not, that's what happens there will affect the masters.


That music gets the green color. I am I am at attention. I you have my attention. So parts of my body. So a couple subplots.


And you've been covering this on Fairway wrong. But what Grey does not have it this year doesn't cross Thomas. Yeah. Feels across the best you can hope for with him is make it make the cut. Brooks we're not convinced he's one hundred percent healthy or do we feel like he's getting healthier.


A little bit better. A little. Brooks There's a tiny bit of value. He's available in some places still around like seventeen to one. Eighteen to one.


That's no way. That's right. I thought I saw that. Now he's like fourteen, fifteen.


Well let's just go that we're going to. It's fine. I'm just going to read all the ads. We'll do this quickly. OK. Beefy Bryson is six to one. Is your six to one favorite. That's absurd. That's outrageous. I think it's more fun to beat him to miss the cut than, than to bet on him. His best masters finish was as an amateur in twenty fifteen where he finished tied for twenty first. Now it is a new Bryson completely reinvented Bryson New Bryson.


His last two majors have been the very best performances in majors in his entire career. And all that weight and all that hitting power. I just don't think the golf gods at Augusta in particular are going to reward all that. I'm going to bet him to miss the cut because I think the odds are going to be good for that.


My bad here on Faneuil's sportsbook, he's plus seven fifty now. Yes, seven, seven. That's still too low. He shouldn't be under that some horrendous odds. Our guy, John, from the Romney hater. Yeah. Good year for him. Yes. I don't know if he's the golf MVP of twenty twenty because I think Bryson's kind of running away with that. But John Rahm is you got invited to the table at the at the terrible awards ceremony hosted by Sinbad.


The what what is it. Why does he what the what sorts of areas. The golf awards. Like if they did like that Dumba award show that they go forward so that cocktail tables, maybe not Sinbad, maybe it's a bit of a lot wider.


I don't know who it is. Kevin Pollak. Rob's at 11 and one still, I don't feel like I'm getting value, that I don't think I'm getting value with Rory at 11 or one either. But it is funny, the hierarchy now of golf, because the Masters, I think, is the best way to see, like, oh, who who do people think are the best five golfers in golf. So Bryson plus 750 from 11 one Rory 11 one JTS 12 to one and Justin Thomas is 12 to one.


Usually Brooks would be in there. But I think because the health thing is a little bit out. But that's the top five. If if I asked you to rattle that off, you would have guessed those five.


Yeah, sure. Of course. And we are paying attention to these odds. I think there is a tiny bit of value on Jay, and I'll tell you why he loves the Masters. He plays the Masters. Great. The last five years since twenty fifteen at the Masters. He's finished tied for six, tied for fourth, tied for 10th and tied for second. The only time in those five years that he didn't play was in twenty seventeen. I think it was because he felt he allegedly slipped and hurt his back.


We don't know what happened. He was at the height of his golfing powers. Speaking of being at the height of his golfing powers, he had an extraordinary fall. He absolutely annihilated everybody this fall in the FedEx Cup and he went to East Lake and just brought home fifteen million sweet dollars to sweet Paulina. He has a covid positive diagnosis that he is recovering from right now. And so he hasn't been in the headlines.


But, you know, if he's athey, I know I don't like the post covid athlete performance, so that's not a storyline in twenty twenty. But here's the thing. In golf, it's different because I understand I know exactly where you're coming from on this and Cam Newton has not been the same. But you know who did have in golf a very good performance. After two weeks off, Tony Pheno, Tony Female took two weeks off for Kobe and he can account.


He broke his ankle and continue to play the Masters. But you know who else is a great athlete like Tony Pheno is D.J. So D.J., a twelve to one, and Bryson sitting there seven and half to one. That's dumb, right? You like those odds? That's the flipped D.J. at twelve to one tiny bit of value. That's all I'm saying.


JTS twelve to one. Schaffel's fourteen to one. Shocklee really getting along well.


That's because a lot of people are on him because he's been he finished tied second last year at the Masters. He has all these top five and top ten finishes in majors. The question with him is whether or not he can jump across the goal line because he hasn't been able to do it. But certainly a top ten play, you'll get some decent odds on that. And vetting him for that is good.


It sounds like he should be a starter for the Tampa Bay Rays. He could just throw a solid six innings and then the crowd gives up a line drive single five and a half innings. I don't know if his caddie is going to pull him out. I don't know.


I'm just going to tell you, if that had been the Red Sox and we hadn't won a World Series yet, I would have reacted the same way I reacted after the great little Pedro game, which was I was so upset that the next day I had to leave. I was working for Kimmel's show. I had to leave Kimmel's show early. I had to go home early. I was so upset I literally couldn't function. Brooks Koepka is eighteen to one on this list.


That's what I like. That's, that's, that's, that's, that's an interesting value. Yes.


Plus you get to root for Brooks Koepka. That's right. Cantlay 20 to one. And then it jumps and I just can't lay it like twenty five to one, and he's going to want to Fandor, OK? I think he's available right this second at twenty five to one, he's worth a little sprinkle. He's another guy that's been around the hoop in majors this since the restart. He hadn't been very good then. He just strung four rounds together.


Very nice rounds right in your backyard at Sherwood Country Club. He won there, beat both Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas who are breathing down his neck. He held them off. He had the lead last year at the Masters. Sunday, back nine, he finished tied for ninth because he fell apart on the 17th and 18th holes, but can't lay a twenty five to one little value. Definitely a guy who could slip on the green jacket. OK, I'm going to just read off names and stop me when you get excited.


Bubba Watson. Twenty seven to one. I'm actually excited about another guy who's been playing very well. A lot of the advanced analytics in golf. His ball striking has been excellent. And one thing about Bubba that that is worth sharing, he tends to do well at places that he's comfortable with. He's a repeat winner at a lot of venues. He's already a repeat winner at the Masters. That's a guy that's going to get a top ten best for me and a top twenty bet.


And at that twenty seven to one, that's worth fifty bucks for sure. Bubba Watson can win the Masters again.


More cows is twenty seven, one does give everybody two majors in the same year seems unrealistic. First, May 1st Masters the last time. This is a stat that everybody is going to say. Fuzzy Zeller is the last guy in nineteen seventy, whatever it was to win the Masters in his first try. So not on that precedent. No, no, no. From more our fuzzy fried chicken. Zeller that that's the guy tough on tough tough tough one to live down there.


But fortunately for us it would have been a much bigger and we're still for him now but still. Oh I mean it's the first thing I think of when I hear is dead man. So that was brutal. Brutal. Just got fuzzy. Zeller also. Golden Bear. Look, I feel like everybody over 80 should be taken with a grain of salt, but the Golden Bear. We didn't need to have somebody write a Twitter post for him and then put that up.


It just wasn't necessary, was unnecessary. It's a perfect way to say that's necessary. Come out there, Patrick. Read twenty seven one. I agree. I saw him at higher odds, but still Patrick Reid won the Masters. So why do you keep insulting Fanjul? These are their odds. They're all Thando. I will take it up with Fedele Tigers, twenty seven point Stateway, Hatton's twenty nine on Websense at twenty nine on Matthew Wolf. Thirty three to one.


You know, two great performances in the majors by Matthew Wolf. Again, you don't know how a guy his age, his level of experience, how he's going to react to Agusta the first time. The interesting thing with a guy like Matthew Wolf, though, is he'll be experiencing it without fans. So it could be an entirely different dynamic, right? None of those Roar's, those back nine Roar's, that that really intimidate guys have that effect. So it's not crazy that a young guy might come up and do it.


And that's a reason that more Kiawah might be interesting as well.


Has Wolfen to house. Thank them from you. Yet it's just me and Matty was well, he's just wharfie. All right. Everybody else is also thirty three to one. Yeah. Everyone else is thirty seven point or higher. I'm just going to rip off names. Stop me if you get excited. Matsuyama, Fleetwood Spaeth. Adam Scott. Jason de. Justin Rose Oosthuizen. What numbers boost isn't available at Azeez available? Fifty one, that's that's that's there's a teeny bit of value there.


He's been playing pretty damn good. You know what we call that value. You call it the dictates value. It's a little we have that 50 to one and he's down one on the 15th and then, you know, bogey. Well, you better give Louis your bet. I'm top five and top 10 to cover off on the 50. The one. So you don't feel like a chump. That's a enty honesty ency.


Honesty, Paul Casey, Rickie Fowler, Scottie Scheffer, Sergio Garcia, Scottie Sheffler, also with SHEFFLER Safety doing. Yeah. Tiny tiny play on that tiny mickelsen. Sixty five to one. I'm him Phil Mickelson who missed the cut. I'm sorry I there's no evidence that he can compete against these young guys anymore. He played in the no cut event last week and finished either fourth from last or third from last. And miraculously the sportsbook offered a head to head where he was.


He was a quite a bit of an underdog, but who cares? I paid minus to forty or two fifty to play Abraham answer straight up against Phil Mickelson and I wish I'd called you and borrowed some extraordinarily large amount of money because I could only do what I had, which was my mortgage and my. I don't have a Bill Simmons mortgage, correct.


Correct. Yeah. And man. Oh man. It was it was he Abrahim answer beat Phil Mickelson by fifteen strokes. Oh my God. Yeah. So I accidentally skipped over Fleetwood and Spaeth.


If you're excited, we you said both those names and neither one. They were lower than you. Fifty to one. I didn't stop you. They were both in the forty to one category. Jordan Spieth at all times is is worth a look at the Masters. It's a magical place for him. He has that magical thing that's come out all right. Finds that he's he's actually been playing better the last handful of weeks. He's played in these no court events also and has some sun rounds that are like feel like they might be showing a breakthrough.


I don't know if you want to be a Jordan Spieth Crewther. There are some green shoots out there.


Stop, OK? Best narrative before we go, 40 million, our picks, best narrative, if you're just like what would be the most fun thing for golf?


I hate saying this, but it might be Bryson winning the Masters, I you beat me to it. I mean, I didn't know if you were going to ask me that. That is the answer. It would absolutely drive, you know, the golf world insane because, you know, part of the challenge since he's returned with all of this extra ball speed and length and everything is is like this existential crisis confronting golf. Oh, my God, he hits the ball so far.


How how can we possibly constrain him or contain him? So that would be hilarious. But in terms of like the sporting public in general here, here's a guy, you know, everybody loves the long ball, right? Like there is some resonance that would catch on with the general sporting public and seeing the Masters sort of brought to to to its knees because of of him hitting potentially four hundred yard drives. That's a narrative, right? That's an interesting story.


Brooks, you would also be a good story. I think I like Roxxy. That's my top two. All right. Taking a break. Do a million dollar pics.


Are doing million dollar pics in one second. Remember, we used the lines from Fandor Sportsbook, who also has seen game play so many different combinations, you can play player props, point totals, money lines. I'm always giddy just thinking about it. Fandor will refund the first same game parlay you lose on any NFL game each week, up to ten dollars. That means you can bet a different parlay risk free. Here is my pick now. They don't have the the Parley's out yet for Sunday where you can't mix the props at the props usually come about twenty four hours for the game.


I went to look at that Philly game. I you look at the money line, which is probably going to be like Philly minus four hundred, that kind of range. And I want you to look at Philly defensive special teams touchdown, which will probably be in the plus one twenty to plus one thirty range. And if you add those together it will get you over plus two hundred. I highly recommend that. And if you do it, I want you to go on Fandor, which is the only sportsbook app which has the same game parlays use promo code B.S. so they know I sent you.


If you already have an account you're good to go.


Same game parlays risk free repeat risk free all season long. For the NFL only on the finial sports, but don't forget to use promo code B.S. when you sign up 21 plus present in Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Iowa, refund issued as nonwar travel say credit that expires in seven days max refund. Ten dollars terms apply a gambling problem, one eight hundred five to two forty seven hundred Colorado or eight hundred bets off in Iowa or eight hundred nine with it in Indiana.


Eight hundred Gambhir in Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois. Or go to eighteen hundred. Gambled on that in West Virginia.


OK, last week I almost had a monster week. I almost swept it except for long. Chapala and then the bears decided throw water on my face and storm out of the restaurant. So I was up five hundred and forty thousand mastic. I'm positive now for the season up one hundred and forty four thousand. I'm actually doing well this season considering I've been on the bad side of pretty much all of these games that had the bad beats except for the Browns last week.


I pulled that one Baker Mayfield.


Well, that was right out of your rear end. One thing that has worked for me is not doing Tiss Impala's OK, familiar picks.


So naturally, I'm going to start with a teaser. It's time.


It's time. Rovi with the Eagles minus eight and a half over a Dallas team that I think is just flat out terrible. And that is not an overreaction thing they literally can't block. They have terrible linebackers and they have to do at quarterback, unless Sandy Dorn can come back from a concussion, they're poorly coached. They're awful. They are. The DVOA, their thirty first only the jets are worse, every sign says they're terrible, and then you have filly who actually has a pass rush.


They need the game. They have a chance to grab the division by the balls. They're only favored by eight and a half. So it's a down with the six points, a straight up or move. That's a two and a half. They win by a field goal. You win, you're going to sweat out the Carson Wentz rollercoaster. He's just going to do it now that going in, it's going to throw a pick. It's going to have fun ball.


He's going to hold the ball too long, get sacked. Let's start there, let's move the Eagles down to two and a half. Why am I not doing that? Yeah, this is the thing. It's going to be the most popular Tizer leg. That's for an entire slate. That would be the only reason at all to be concerned. You know, you want to go generally against the public when you can, but this is one where I'm with you.


There is a reason that there are 30 first in DVOA. I just watched them against my home team and boy, did I enjoy watching the shit out of them. They they're they're disgraceful. I mean, it's a it's an effort thing. It's a coaching thing. It's a concept thing. Obviously, Dalton, you know, you don't anticipate playing your backup come week seven, week six, week seven. And you know them trying to figure out what to do.


But like the Mike Nolan defense is unbelievable how bad they are scheme wise and execution wise. They can't tackle anybody and they don't even try. I'm so happy right now that Dallas is so terrible. I listen to you and Cousins Salon on the Sunday night spot. I couldn't believe that you included Jacksonville in the bottom three teams and you put Jacksonville in the same breath as the Jets and the Cowboys.


Well, they just crossed the middle of a cross off. Yeah. All right. Well, that's fine, because Dallas is way worse. They're awful. And the teams that you're describing, that's a great first leg. Let's get a million dollar picks.


Yeah, I just think you have to look at it as look, Wentz is going to scare you in the first hour and a half of this team. And you're going and you're going to feel real doubt and you're in your bones. It may be KD Lamb gets an 80 yard touchdown, whatever. There will be a moment of doubt, but just Philly will somehow pull the game out, hopefully not win by two and mash up. There's an interesting bet on Fandor Philly by fourteen plus is plus one twenty just on it.


Thrown that one and if it was plus I wanted closer to two to one. Look at that. All right. So for the second piece of this Eagles TES. I narrowed it in on Tampa. Minus 12 against the Giants and here's the case, first of all, the DVOA split, we're now at the point where DVOA, I think, really matters. Yeah, Tampa's first the Giants are tonight. So that's wonderful. So if we get that Tampa down under a touchdown to minus six, I have as big of a disparity as I'm going to get with DVOA.


The Giants defense is terrible. They've given up fifty point five percent on third down there, one four, seven stops on, fourth down. And then offensively, I think there's this feeling because Daniel Jones, he throws the ball. And I don't know that people think the Giants offense can at least move the ball. The stats don't back it up. They're what they're yards per attempt, six point one. They have nine turnovers and their twenty seventh in the league in rushing.


And to me, this is more a belief in Tampa who I think is the most logical NFC Super Bowl pick right now and the most complete team God wins how God is going to miss this game. But even with that said, they had the kind of defense that can extend leads. They're just a complete football team. And the thing is, if you're thinking this is a potential Super Bowl contender, these are the games that you end up winning by thirty or forty two to ten, kind of what they did to the Raiders last week.


So teasing the Eagles then two and a half and Tampa down to six, both of them have to cover. Who screws me in that, the Eagles? Well, let's tap the brakes for just one second because and I don't know how you want to handle this, it's off the board right now because I'm aware because there was like some covid thing. Yeah, yeah, yeah. They'll play it. They've they've they've plowed through every time. OK, well, if you have the confidence that they're going to play it because you don't want to just be out there, you have this wonderful tease and have a backup of a backup team.


Yeah. That's all I'm suggesting. OK, yeah. There's no argument with any aspect of what you just described. I think, you know, power ranking wise, there's a very defensible case to have Tampa at the very tippy top. And I just want to know, how does that make you feel? I mean, you could talk about it a little bit like I'm fine, OK? The Mookie Betts thing hurts way, way, way, way, way more.


Well, that's because we traded that guy as he was hitting his prime Brady's forty three. It's like it was going to end this year. Next year. We already got six Super Bowls out of them. And our team's terrible with or without him. Well, it's not like he's going to make a difference with this Patriots team. We can move on quickly because Tampa less than a touchdown, and that's what you've done. You've crossed one of the magic numbers to get it down under seven, which is important.


That's that's good value. You're fine. I like that a lot. One of the lessons we've learned from the podcast you're doing was sharp, because one thing you and I love to do is have an anchor team. So like this week, we be like, I love the Eagles. I'm going to tease them with four teams and I'll go three and one or I'll sweep the bets. And Sharp is like, don't rely on one team, be diverse, rely on a whole bunch of different bets.


So I'm trying to stick to that because I think it's good advice. So I'm normally I'd put the Eagles in two other teases, but I'm not going to do that this time. Next next bed. I'm looking at bills. Going to bring this line down to minus three against the Patriots, so it's minus one thirty one thirty to win one hundred. Bills 14 DVOA Pats. Twenty six bills, defense secretly not that good, they they they're they've given up over 50 percent on third down.


They've also they're fifty two point for their offense at their defense, the Pats offense. It cannot be overstated how bad they are. If you move this Seattle game, it's probably the worst offense in the league just for the year, even including the Seattle game. Thirty nine percent on third down there. Twenty eight the past year. It's their quarterbacks have thrown three touchdowns, eleven interceptions. Their quarterbacks have a sixty five percent passer rating and they've been able to run the ball a little bit.


But that doesn't matter when you fall behind by ten. And I think they this line should be at least seven. God bless the Pats. God bless Belichick, God bless the six Super Bowls, the town is not theirs. I laid out on Sunday's pod and we see this every year with the team. It takes everybody four extra weeks to kind of admit that the once great contender, whoever, it's just dead. It's gone. It's over. And we saw it with Dallas this year to them coverage out there on seven.


Even this Eagles line should be Eagles by ten. People won't give up on Dallas. I just think the line's too low. And getting into minus three don't have to worry about the hook. Makes a lot of sense to me. What do think?


There isn't a big track record of betting against Bill Belichick and having success. And I know how bad the New England has looked. And I know that you are studying them assiduously, that you're on every aspect of what New England is bringing to the plate.


The thing that concerns me is we saw Cam Newton at the height of his powers just four weeks ago, and then he had covid and he hasn't been the same guy. But what if this is the week that he is that guy again? That's great.


What can they guess what that means? That means the Patriots won. So I went either way. Great. OK, OK. All right. Next back and we're moving on it. I can't lose with this one.


I did not see a single sign from Cam Newton last week that he's going to be good this week. OK, but I would love like on Saturday if somebody read some piece about me and Cam Newton look great. This is like, oh, cool. Next one, Raider's Brant's, you talked me into this. Initially, I was leaning toward the Browns and you were passionate about the Raiders, there's some good signs that the Raiders are going to cover this.


They're getting two and a half against the Browns. It's in Cleveland. No other Bekka possible bad weather, possible wind, which I think is great for Baker Mayfield, who has enough problems as it is that wind into the equation. He's the diva. Twenty second for Cleveland. Twenty third for Vegas. Huge turnover differential raider's or minus five. Cleveland's plus five, which is usually a red flag for the team. That's plus raiders are kind of secretly good on offense.


They're 50 percent on third down, seven fourth down. And then on the flipside, the Browns giving up forty seven point one percent on third down and other teams are 11 and 12 against them on fourth down. And I was shocked last week from what we saw from their defense in a game where it's just seemed like they're ready to finish up. The Bengals and the Bengals were just putting together drives over and over again on them with no offensive line and no running back.


So to me, this is a pick them. I feel like you're getting two and a half, three points. I think I got thrown off by how bad the Raiders were in that Bucs game. But make the case why I shouldn't have been thrown off. Well, first of all, that was what what Warren Sharpe likes to call a faulty outcome, a faulty score. The Raiders were down by four points in that fourth quarter. And then a couple of things went Tampa's way.


And Tampa just just put the game out of reach. But the Raiders were in that game, you know, throughout most of it. And they were in the worst possible kind of disarray on the offensive line. It was an incredible mess. They had their right tackle, didn't play because of a positive covid test. And then his backup was inactive. And then they had all the other starting offensive linemen sit out self quarantine until Sunday morning to get all clear.


And then when they started playing the game, the Raiders right tackle had a knee injury and then another guy got kicked out. So, like, that's that is a low point for that offensive line. And they were up against the you know, the maybe the best. Yeah. Yeah, exactly right. Defensively in the league. And they were within a one score in the fourth quarter. It wasn't a blowout the way that the score kind of suggested.


You mentioned that the Raiders are sneaky, good on offense. They're sixth in offensive DVOA. And one thing in particular that they do well, that could be a nice indicator if there's bad weather is they do have a decent short passing game and that's all they have. What do you talk about? Well, I mean, you know, they have that deep threat and rugs and, you know, twice they said and he catches one, but that's it.


Yeah. There's a Naglaa player once a game. That's right. They said the Browns defense gave up thirty four points in four hundred and seventy yards last week to the Bengals. So I just think for all the reasons that you just said, these teams are pretty even to me, and getting the two and a half points is value. I like the Raiders in this spot. The Raiders are interesting because so week one, they beat Carolina by four in a game that now looking at what we've seen from Carolina, it's like that's that's a nice win.


They beat New Orleans by ten. We, too, they lose to the Pats in week three in a game that you had to watch it. They lost by sixteen, but it was just one of those shoot bullets in your foot game. And I did feel a little lucky coming out of that game. They lose to Buffalo by seven. They beat Kansas City and then that Tampa game, I think you throw it out. So then if they can be Cleveland, they're going at the Chargers home, Denver home, Casey, and then at Atlanta, at the Jets home, Colts Home Chargers home, Miami at Denver.


There is a roadmap for them to get to 10 wins. And I think this game's weirdly important to them because it's one of the tougher road games they have left. I think they're mad about last week. I could mark that one. The next one. I have a couple of maybes here we can report. OK, Steelers, Ravens, plus three and a half. I like the Steelers all year. They've been good to me. They've covered a couple of times.


I have them to win the AFC Central. I have them in their AFC from before the season. So I have a personal stake. I think last week was on pace to be a blowout and AJ Brown got that weird touchdown deep one is like, oh shit. And suddenly it felt like a game. I don't think Baltimore will be able to run the bottom. I think Pittsburgh has proven they swore they even swallowed up Tennessee's run game for most of the game last week, which puts the game in Lamar's hands.


And I just haven't seen him do it. And it's a good defense yet. He is going to be home. The thing that worries me is I just haven't loved Roethlisberger this season. He's been OK. But, you know, they're not even thrown for seven yards to pass. He seems to make to throw the game. And it makes me nervous for some reason that I can't really identify. The thing I do like is the hook. I like that this is three and a half, not three.


What do you think?


I really love Baltimore. OK, good. I think they they have been resting. There's there are some incredible stats for them coming off a bye week. Harbaugh is awesome. Coming off a bye week. Ten and two straight up nine and three against the spread, including games like last year. They were underdogs going up against the Pats. They came out and beat the crap out of them. Thirty seven to twenty Baltimore. This is crucially important to their desire to win the AFC conference and get the buy in the first place.


The important for the Lamar narrative. Well, and he needs a good win in a big game against against somebody he hurt his knee against the Washington almost professional, definitely might be professional football team. And he the last two games after that game, they ran him way less and his passing accuracy was down. That's another report that's coming out, is that he's he's really used this time to get himself healthy and that he's feeling good. It's a fascinating matchup on the on the outside because the Steelers have the best receiving corps in football and Ben gets rid of the ball faster than anybody.


But Baltimore has a chance to gameplan against that. And to me, the real deciding factor, why I like Baltimore in particular, is Devin Bush being out. I think that the Baltimore they can do some ball control. If Lamar really is healthy, he can run again. And if Lamar runs for 70 yards, I'm going to play this game by buying the hook. I want to buy Baltimore at minus one thirty down to minus three, because I just feel like that's a safer no, I don't want I don't.


So this sounds like an amazing game. Parlaying that to that. Give Fandor a second plug. But you do Ravens minus three at minus one thirty and then you do Lamar over whatever the rushing yards ends up to be like fifty eight yards, whatever it. Oh let's do that. Oh God damn it.


We're going to do that one now. All right. I'm going to stay away from that game. Another maybe Colts minus two and a half against the Lions. From a business standpoint, the Colts should be favored by at least three. This is a Phil Rivers question. They feel comfortable betting money on Phil Rivers, and I'm not sure I do, I agree it really hurts, right, because it has not been comfortable. I bet the Colts to win 10 games this year, and I have not enjoyed any of it.


But I will say this. They're getting the left tackle back. Anthony Costanzo is coming back. He missed the Browns game, came back for the Bengals game, but the bye that the Colts just had was helpful to him. Darius Leonard is coming back after missing the last two games. So that's big for him. The Colts have a sneaky, good defense and the Lions have beaten up on two bad teams to get themselves kind of back to five hundred, which is, you know.


Right. Well, the reality is they should be if Gurley falls down on the one, they're two and four. Yeah. And that's another reason why that might mark this one down. You know, the other thing, we haven't had the Jonathan Taylor break up game yet. I just traded for him and one of my legs because I had Watson and Calamar and I traded Watson for Taylor during his bye week because I was looking at running backs. And I'm like, who has a chance?


Like, it feels like it's going to hurt. They've been behind. They've had weird games, but maybe this is the week I'm going to mark them down. Next one is Bengals plus five and a half against the Titans.


Joey covers every week except for when he plays the Ravens. There's that since his thirtieth DVOA. Not great. I was really impressed with how they moved the ball last week. And then you think Tennessee's defense. Which is just abysmal, their defense sucks. It's kind of shocking, there almost can't be considered a contender. They've given up sixty one percent conversions on third down their defense. So six out of every 10 times, the other team gets a third down there as a plus nine and turnovers.


Now, the flip side, Gostkowski has cost them two games, but the five and a half just seems like Joey covers. Give me a little little garbage time TD for the cover. Could they keep it close? I was just intrigued by it. Talk me out of it.


That's the one year you're counting on. I don't really have a strong feeling for a side here. I might play Tennessee in a tease. I might tease them through the three and the 60s and down, you know, just to try to pull out the W.


Yeah. And, you know, because the price for that cheaper than the money line I am very fearful of Jerry covers.


I mean me to back off that Brown spent last week. He was just flat out terrifying. I guess we stop this guy, hit up late, do anything. The thing that I'm worried about, they do have like a decent defensive front seven and the Bengals offensive line is atrocious. And the concern always with Joey covers is, is that when somebody comes and goes out for any portion of the game at all, they're cooked.


I think I'm throwing them in. Long shot Parli two more Dolphins' plus three against the Rams. There's a Dolphins six to one AFC bet that neither of us have made, but we've been staring at for most of the week. Dolphins might be pretty good.


They throw throughout week one they lose to the Pats twenty and eleven, which is a goofy game. And they they just whatever they they had some injuries lose to Buffalo by three killed. Jacksonville went toe to toe with Seattle. Kill San Francisco, kill the Jets, and then they bring in two of forfeits. And that know they're only getting three against the Rams, they're 13 DVOA Rams are seventh. And the line is suspiciously low, which kind of makes me like the Dolphins, I would have assumed the Rams are favored by four, four and a half.


Why is the line three part of it has to do with the fact that the Rams are once again flying out east. This is their Fourth Eastern Time zone game already, you know, halfway through the season and they're on a short week. They just played Monday night against the Bears. And that was a physical effing game, right? That Bears Rams game. That's a good playoff preview for like a first round playoff matchup. Potentially. The Rams have really good performance against the spread.


And straight up on the East Coast under Sean McVay, ten and four against the spread in the last 14 games on the road, eight and two straight up and against the spread in their last ten games on the East Coast. That's because Sean McVay is a good coach and they plan and they they have sensible game plan. The concern that I have is the bird. What version of Jared Goff are you going to get?


Well, especially in the eighty five degree weather. There you go to it. That's it. Just played Monday night. Big win. Yes, exactly. Loras action I think is something that's the one I like. Here is the Dolphins money line. I think it's like plus one sixty five or something. I saw that that's, that's the number that I like here. We have no idea what that offense will look like. With to the offense was surprisingly pretty effective in a couple of different areas with Fitz Fitzpatrick.


We have no idea what to say. You got dolphins money lines plus one fifty. They're sure. There you go. I like the money line here. That's a little tasty. Mark that one down. Last one. It just we have to mention this one is Seattle. Plus minus two and a half against San Francisco, just. A complete fuck you to Russell Wilson that he's not favored by three in this game while Vegas is like now two and a half.


Here's the thing, I'm still not over Seattle. Shitting the bed last week, not just shitting the bed, they were accomplices in that lost, like they actively aided and abetted that loss through the combination of play call through the through having no defensive scheme whatsoever for the Murray. They had an f ing bye week and a full two weeks to prepare for Kyla Murray. And not one guy had eyes on Conrad Murray, that entire f ing game. And, you know, they had the game in hand to win with a minute.


Forty five seconds left and they ran three straight Carlos Hyde to the same side of the line. You know, they gained six yards, one first down and they win that football game as banned. Either Russell at the line didn't didn't you know, because they initiated that at that end of game they got one first down. They needed to first down. The way they got that first first down was Russell running for nine yards. And then they got another one.


They got the Arizona Cardinals in the position to have to use those those timeouts. And they did. But the game was on the line and they just run. Carlos Hyde, he doesn't get the yards, the universe.


They were due to lose that game because they've won plenty of them. That's a fact. Read the dumb game. Guys are just like, hey, man, you can't this can't happen again.


They have a historically bad defense. They're on pace. So to hunt below the NFL record for most yards allowed in the season, they've given up one hundred and seventy one first downs, which is third worst teams are almost forty nine percent on them and third down there. Twenty eight, the defensive DVOA and yet.


I don't know. I don't. I like the two and a half just in the Niners are banged up, too, right? They're missing now. They're missing. Mostert Wilson looked really good last week. He's out. DBO got hurt. He's out. And it's like it's like it's whack a mole. With the injuries so deep.


DBO is the truly concerning aspect for San Francisco because the one thing that is apparent you can throw on Seattle and it doesn't matter, you know, big, big IUC game. It could be it could be the Brad and I love that game. Yeah.


Last one long shot parlay. We got Bengals with the Vikings here against Green Bay plus seven but in four long shot parlay Bengals Vikings win. That's plus nine fifteen. And then you have bang. I don't like the Vikings. I don't know either. Bengals Bears is plus eight fifteen. Bears are playing the Saints, their five point underdogs to the Saints, the other move is to throw the Dolphins and Bengals together, and that's a plus 650. So there are three options for a long shot part of the week, I like Dauphin's Bengal's the best.


I think I do too. Oh, good. But I also like Bengal's bears. Yeah, I like the I like the bears also. I think New Orleans has been, you know, overrated by Vegas so far this season and they haven't really impressed me in any game. I very much liked what Carolina did against them all week in Carolina. I mean, they had to try a sixty five yard field goal at the end, but they were every bit the equal of New Orleans in New Orleans last week.


Did we say yes on the Colts? Minus two and a half? We did, right? Yes. I like the Colts. All right. Molenaar picks, week eight. I am up one hundred and forty four thousand for the season. Here's what we're doing, Tizer three thirty to win. Three hundred thousand Eagles, minus eight and half over Dallas and Tampa, minus twelve against the Jets Egleston minus two and a half. Tampa down to minus six.


Three thirty to win three hundred bills minus three against the Patriots. We're going to buy the half point minus one thirty three ninety to win three hundred and the Buffalo Bills against the six time champion now a potential carcas doing good patriots. I can't lose no matter what happens in this game.


Next one, the Raiders plus two and a half in Cleveland. Windi three thirty to win. Three hundred on that. And then we're going to do a little little sampling hundred each oh on Colts minus two and a half over the Lions.


Yes. Dolphins plus one 50 to beat the Rams outright. We just love it. And the Seahawks minus two and a half over the Niners, out of respect to Russell Wilson, just because if they lose this game, people will talk about the best podcast curse of Russell Wilson.


That's coming on the podcast.


I really, really need to cut through. You can't have that. Our long shot parlay of the week. We're going to do Bengals, Dolphins. Both of them have to win thirty K plus six fifteen and then we'll sprinkle a little 20 K on Bengals Bears. Good, plus 15. Yeah, that's called round robin right there in those are the million dollar picks for Weekend House. We can hear you with Warren Sharp, a guy who knows way more about football than I do.


But it was wonderful to see you, as always. Always a pleasure.


The Masters are right around the corner. We've got football in full array. And by the way, the holidays are coming. That means holiday food. Bill Simmons.


Oh, and also congratulations. For a week and a half ago, you broke the record for longest ad read in a History of a Ringer podcast. You did a Fandor read that was like five and a half minutes. So congrats.


I look I get excited when we're talking about fan betting. I mean, you know, kill me.


You're like the Paul Thomas Anderson of average. Just just give me an opportunity with Heineken again. Wait till I have some Heineken tonight. All right. I'll see you later. Good to see you, buddy. All right, bring it in right now, Bakari Sellers, who host the Bakari Sellers podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network, great podcast. He's also on CNN and a whole bunch of other places. And his colleague, Harry Harian, who has somehow never been on this podcast, the three of us are going to talk about.


The election, which is now less than five days away, so here, that is. All right, fellas, we're taping this. It is Thursday, 1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. So if anything changes, don't blame us.


We are now five days away and Beqaa is going to be on TV for seven straight hours. That was seven straight hours. Tuesday night. No, I don't know, about 7:00, but close, you know, we'll we'll pop in and pop out, but we actually start full coverage. I think he knows. So we start full coverage on Saturday with twenty four hours live starting Saturday morning. So we'll be on any any time you want to see some handsome guys, you tune in to CNN starting starting Saturday and we'll go through Thursday.


And here you're just you're just drinking coffee and staying up for five straight days. What's your life going to be like? I'm drinking the Coke Zero, the Diet Pepsi, anything that has caffeine. And I've already started. You know, I was I was in the studio at Potkin 740 on to on Thursday. I had four or five hits. Today I'm doing this thing. I did a radio interview and we're just going to keep on going, going, going until I collapse.


Hamster wheel. How are we looking right now? By then, I think is minus one eighty minus one seventy five. Trump is in the minus or the plus one forty five plus one fifty range. But and I were texting today. I, I'm still not a total believer in these polls because I am not convinced that there's a certain number of people out there who is honest when these pollsters call them. I do believe in that. We saw it a little bit in 2016.


I think that's not the only reason we had a surprise here. Do you believe the polls? I do OK, but here's the real thing, here's the real thing, Mr. Simmons, even if you had a polling error the same size as you had in twenty sixteen or current two thousand twenty, Joe Biden would still get over three hundred electoral votes. His lead, simply put, is larger than Hillary Clinton's. And we could go through the individual swing states during the course of this, but just the start of the national polls, because I think it just gives you a broad overview.


Joe Biden's up by nine or 10 points in the average in the final polls of twenty sixteen. Hillary Clinton was up three or four points. So Joe Biden's lead is twice as large as Hillary Clinton's was nationally. And so, you know, even if you don't believe the polls and you say you take some sort of discount, you still should have Joe Biden that OK, because what's your biggest fear right now, five days away? Well, so I'm I'm a little Zen, to be completely honest with you, because a lot of my Democratic brethren are a proverbial bedwetters.


And, you know, we have this this level of angst and anxiety. And I refuse to go there. And I just feel like to be completely honest and I don't know if he agrees with me, I think our democracy truly rests on three states, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. And the reason I say those three states is because you will be able to count those ballots on election night. There's no red mirages. My friends at Hawk Fish, we'll talk about often in a garage for those who don't know, is let's take a state like Pennsylvania, for example, that on election night, it appears that Joe Biden is winning.


I mean, excuse me, Donald Trump is winning without counting all of the mail in ballots. And so there's this freak paranoia that on election night, it's going to look like Donald Trump is winning before you count all the mail in ballots. And I think you get rid of all that angst, all of that anxiety, because Donald Trump literally and Harry, correct me if I'm wrong, but Donald Trump literally has to win Ohio, North Carolina and Florida to be president of the United States.


I'm not sure of a scenario he gets to 270. I mean, I know they are. You can play with them. But a legitimate scenario, he gets 270 without winning all three of those.


Yeah. What I would say is that you're 100 percent right if Joe Biden wins in the state of Florida. Sure. You could draw up some map of that occurring. I'm sure you could also come up with some scenario that bill routes for the New York Yankees. But those are very far in between. At the end of the day, if Joe Biden wins in the state of Florida, he is almost certainly going to be the next president of the states.


And that's pretty much the same as Ohio and North Carolina, although North Carolina might be a little bit might be more like ninety eight percent of the time if Joe Biden wins and North Carolina becomes the next president. But it's something fairly close to a sure thing.


And you count those votes, Bill, just so you know, you do count those votes. I mean, they dump those mail in ballots. You we will have so much data at seven o'clock out of the state of Florida that we will be able to pass through and be able to see what it looks like is happening. And this is this is going way into the weeds, just so you know. But Hillary Clinton and Democrats had a ninety thousand vote Democratic vote advantage going into the election in twenty sixteen at the open the ballot, you saw that she had a two hundred and forty seven thousand vote advantage.


I mean, with independents voting for her and some Republicans voting for her, she was up by two hundred and forty seven thousand votes. She ended up losing by one hundred and thirteen thousand. And so on Monday night, you're going to look for how many Democrat was the Democratic vote advantage. And then on Tuesday at seven fifteen, seven, twenty seven thirty, smart people like Harry and John King will be able to deduce and peel back how many votes she's actually up.


If she's up by more than two hundred forty seven thousand, if she's up by like half a million, then that's this is an interesting race in Florida, one that I would bet on if I was a Democrat. Why isn't Pennsylvania one of the key states? It is a key state. But what McCarthy is getting at is look well, first off, we should say Pennsylvania is absolutely key state, right? Absolutely. If Joe Biden wins in Pennsylvania, he's probably going to win the election.


In fact, I would argue it's you know, if you were to use a Nate Silver terminology, a tipping point state, Pennsylvania, is that it's the state that's likely to put a candidate over the top in the Electoral College. The difference in Pennsylvania is that the vote by mail or absentee ballots will not begin to get processed until Election Day in Pennsylvania. And the vote count is likely going to extend into Wednesday or Thursday. And the first ballots that come in in Pennsylvania will be the Election Day ballots, which is the exact opposite of what's going to occur in Florida, where the first ballots to get counted will be those apps both by mail and early in-person votes.


So essentially what he's arguing is that if Joe Biden wins in Florida, there's no real scenario. What Trump could say. See, I'm ahead in they. It from a birth is in Pennsylvania, while they those are perfectly legitimate votes, obviously, that are cast by absentee ballot. Trump is going to try and claim something nefarious when no such thing is actually. So this is I mean, people have been talking about that Tuesday night when we normally have a really good idea by whatever time, sometimes it could be late at night.


Sometimes it can stretch till 2:00 in the morning. Is there a world in which we have no idea, even when we go to bed on Tuesday, who won? Yeah, yeah, yeah, OK, well, it seemed like that was the fear initially, but but then now people are like, no, no actually but it still feels like like what would you say is more probable? It's going to bet on Tuesday night not knowing who won or who's going to bet on Tuesday night, knowing who won.


I think I think what's probable is you going to bed knowing who won without them being declared a winner. And I think that everybody, everybody will be able to say, like, you know, my guy won, you know, and this is probably more more tilted towards Joe than Trump. But my got one. I can go to sleep. We're hammered at three thirty. They have it. NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN. Having rolled out the breaking news with Wolf Blitzer banner that says we have a new president of the United States, it is because that didn't happen to three thirty three forty five a.m. last go round after I went to bed at eleven o'clock knowing that Hillary Clinton wasn't going to be president.


I mean, I knew the blue wall was chipped and I knew that she lost Florida. Yeah, that was over. And I think that you'll have something similar. I mean, when you by the time you get to the West Coast, a lot of my Democratic friends had these weird ideologies about Georgia and Texas. Go Georgia, go Texas. Anyway, if if if Joe Biden wins in Arizona, for example, where he's likely to win in Arizona, you know that late in the night, then you'll get closer to if everything else is up in the air, which I don't think it will be.


Arizona's one of those tipping point states. I think, Erick and correct me again, it's one of those tipping points that he wins Arizona.


Then the path gets even that much of Arizona is a state that often doesn't get spoken about on the east, perhaps because it's all the way in the West. Or maybe folks just don't like the desert. I don't know. But Arizona is a key state in terms of perhaps you could call it playing one B for Joe Biden. Right. If you put the Hillary Clinton states together, that totals two hundred and thirty two electoral votes. Then you add in Michigan with its 16, you get to forty eight, then Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.


Remember, Nebraska, like Maine, allocates one electoral vote to the winner in each of those congressional districts. The Second District, Omaha, very likely to go for Biden.


So that gets the two forty nine you add in with a specially, especially after he left everybody grazing at his last rally. Go to Mexico. Good put out. Let's talk about local news stories. So all of these things I'm sorry about. It is a local news story which will, well, help in that one electoral vote.


I know it's a very important electoral vote because you add in there, you get to two forty nine. You add in Wisconsin, where covid is going bonkers right now, you get to two fifty nine and then you add in Arizona and its 11 electoral votes and you get to exactly two hundred and seventy without Biden needing to win in Pennsylvania, win in Florida, win in North Carolina. So Arizona to me, a key state, one in which Joe Biden is leading by about four points in the averages.


We talk to each other right now. Wow. So what in terms of what Hillary didn't win in 2016, what are the states that Biden has clearly taken over over those last four years where we just feel confident these are the ones he's taken? Bakari. I wonder if you disagree with me, but I think in order of sort of the ones where I feel the most confident that Biden will win Michigan, then Wisconsin, I know there's been some doubt about Wisconsin, but I actually feel pretty confident that Biden will win there then Nebraska's second congressional district.


And then I think that there are different strokes for different folks, whether they think it's ultimately Arizona or ultimately Pennsylvania, that he will win. And he's obviously leading in North Carolina and Florida. But I think that and even Georgia. But there's far less certainty, especially about Georgia now.


I think so. And well, I'm not a I'm not a Georgia fan. Georgia's Fool's Gold. I think Georgia, Georgia, Georgia is a lot like Missouri was for Barack Obama. I got to do a side. Axelrod They always thought they were winning Missouri. They never did. And what you all don't probably don't remember and I don't know if I'm stumping here tonight, but if you go back, George W. Bush actually sent Dick Cheney to Hawaii.


Oh, I recall that in his reelection, because they they they fucking thought they were going in Hawaii and they got about like eight. So there's always a state or two where people think they can expand the map and they don't. I think George is probably their state, but I do think that the Senate candidates are going to have they're going to fare a little bit better and that's going to be a longer race, but. I think Harry's right, I think Arizona is probably the state I would point to that.


You will see the biggest turnover swing, I think you'll see a growth in Nevada, although Hillary won Nevada, I think you'll see a growth in Nevada. I think that he'll win all the blue, all states. But I think that the secret sauce and I'm not sure if Joe's going to pull this off or not, but I do think Ohio is a state where Joe Biden is over performing. And I think that there is a chance in Ohio that that I know Monmouth just came out with a poll like as we're taping today with Joe Biden's up up four or five.


And you got to put you got to throw that in a whole gumbo pot. So I don't believe he's up four or five. I think I think Ohio be one point, two point state, but we'll know election night. I think that's the state he can win.


You know, just to jump in here for a second, what is so important when you're looking at trends in the national polls, which I that's part of the reason I look at the national polling, is to understand demographic subgroups. And what you do see is that Joe Biden is considerably outperforming Hillary Clinton among white voters without a college break when you compare the pre-election polls in 2016 and the pre-election polls in 2020. And of course, if you know your math, there are a ton of those voters in the great battleground states such as Ohio, such as Pennsylvania, such as Michigan, such as Wisconsin, and although technically Iowa is not on the Great Lakes, I guess you could say it's part of the Midwest.


I think that's forgot about Iowa. That's exactly right. It's part of the reason why Biden is very competitive in Iowa, despite Hillary Clinton losing that state by a little bit over nine points. So what's the recipe for Biden?


Just crushing election night where it's actually like a landslide? Is it three or four states that if those go, it could? I think it's I think it's. I think it's. I think it's county level, I mean, you have to look at the states whereby you have or counties whereby you have these large portions. Of white, non college educated voters. And if you see him start to make up ground in those states, you can start to see a cascade.


What we are seeing, though, in Florida, in Georgia and North Carolina is you're seeing black voters, particularly 65 and above, turn out in numbers that are maximizing, if not exceeded. And the question is, and this is a larger question, this is a question for somebody smarter than I like Harry and Ron Brownstein and many of those guys is, are Democrats cannibalizing their voters? And that's that is probably one of the larger questions. 16, especially in Florida, because.


A lot of us were waiting for Broward County and Dade County to dump voters out and there were no more voters to dump out on election night because they had all voted early. And so the question is, are all of these target voters voting early? And I think that the biggest difference you see now are not some of the more traditional buckets, but. Are white, non college educated voters, are they coming home to Joe Biden or are they sticking with Donald Trump?


And that's going to tell the difference.


You know, another thing I would just point out is voters 65 and over. That was a group that has voted Republican and until election since at least two thousand, there's some argument among the nerds whether or not Gore won that senior vote or not. I tend to think he actually didn't, but whatever. That's for another conversation. But you do see that Joe Biden is leading among seniors nationally. You see that in Florida, that group is quite competitive.


And obviously, you go to the villages, you go down to Palm Beach County. Can Joe Biden expand upon the Democratic margins in Palm Beach, even if he's losing some ground among Hispanics in Miami-Dade? These are the types of questions that will ultimately become answered. And if he is, look, at the end of the day, if you lose a few Hispanic supporters, but you gain some whites without a college degree and you gain some senior citizens, that's a pretty good trade in the Electoral College.


Is it fair to say you can follow where they're spending their time these next four days to know where where their teams think are the states they have to win? I mean, look at Joe Biden's going to Minnesota as part of a Midwest package. I don't really think Minnesota is in danger, although, you know, Donald Trump went to the Minnesota in the final days of the 2016 campaign and we all thought, what the heck is he doing there?


And then he only lost the state by a point and a half. Look, I think it gives you a broad understanding of where the electoral map is, but I tend to be the type of guy who's like, what's the poll average say, historically speaking, how off of the polls been in those states? Have they been biased in one way or another? And that's how I tend to view it. I don't try to get henpecked by the campaigns themselves.


Sometimes they do head fakes. Donald Trump, especially my full head fake occasionally once in a while. So, yeah. Yeah, Donald Trump ended up campaigning in Macon, Georgia, like in the run up to the election in 2016 and everybody's like, why are you going to Macon, Georgia? Like Georgia's not in play then? It wasn't a swing state. I mean, so the head fake is is very, very real. I think, you know, Joe Biden, uniquely enough has been to.


Pennsylvania over 20 times. Over 20 times, he's been to no other state over five. So Joe Biden really, really, really, really wants to win Pennsylvania. I wouldn't be surprised if his election night or Monday night. And I don't know where it is. I'm just talking about the side of my neck. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was in Philadelphia to try to with Carson Wentz and Joel Embiid.


Exactly, I mean, I think he should go with Tobias Harris, I mean, and Doc Rivers has yet to roll out the whole crew. Yeah, definitely. Definitely can't rule out Darryl Moore. I mean, he hasn't answered a question about China since he left Houston.


So, you know, let's not do that. Let's not add any more monkey wrenches to that. Yeah. So I don't you know, I think there is a head fake, but I think that the most valuable thing you have is time. I know Carmelo is going to Texas. If she's not out there today, I can remember and I don't know where Mike Pence is. But, you know, right now this thing is pretty much baked. It's all about a goateed game now.


How much help has the voting stuff, the ads, the athletes stepping in, the celebrities, the social media campaigns? What do you honestly think has been the effect of that? I'd be interested in Bacardi's thoughts on this, but to me, it almost certainly can't hurt the turnout. Right. And this is something we haven't discussed yet. We're going to be looking at record turnout as a percentage of the voting eligible population since 18 year olds got the vote just before the seventy two election.


We're probably looking at one hundred and fifty five million people turning out of voting this time. It was less than one hundred and forty million back in two thousand sixteen. And I think there has been this real emphasis, both in the sports world and the celebrity world and just generally speaking, to get people to turn out and vote. And I think that you're seeing that right now in the early vote numbers, right? I mean, you just we ran past the twenty sixteen early vote earlier this week with no problem.


Not part of that's the pandemic. Part of that is just the overwhelming enthusiasm either for or against the president. United States being aided by all these. Get out the vote.


Yeah, I mean, I think you see you're seeing much more I mean, just people sharing their voices, whether or not it's Alicia Keys and Kerry Washington who were tonight doing something on CBS, I believe, and even somebody on the other side and I don't get offended by this. I think everybody should have their voice. But Jack Nicklaus today coming out and saying he's voting for Donald Trump. You know, people I mean, Twitter is not the real world, but the council.


Jack Nicklaus is stupid. One thing will happen. And to let the man speak of species 80 years old, I mean, he's fought the good fight. Let them win the support he wants to support. Now, Jay Cutler, I think he was probably, as you saw Jay Cutler come out to support Trump. I think he was probably trying to support Joe Biden, but it got intercepted.


I've been waiting to use that one all day. So, you know, that is different.


But everybody, you starting to see athletes, even 80 year old athletes and Jack Nicklaus or LeBron James use their voice and use their power. What will it change in this election, is your question, I'm not sure it will change much. I think that there is a huge lightning round right now. But I do believe with the numbers of poll workers in the numbers of people who are engaged in the process and now athletes finding their voice, I think it truly changes the fundamentals of electoral politics going forward.


And so I think both parties will now have to be more accountable because I don't think these voices are going to be quiet. I think that whether or not the number's always been very, very, very loud and very vocal. But the NBA now being vocal for rookies in the league to LeBron James are being vocal athletes who are retired, these entire institutions. So now I do think that there's not going to be any days off and it may not change what happens next Tuesday.


But I do think that it's going to raise the level of awareness about our political processes, which has not been raised going in the future going forward.


Well, don't forget about the NFL voting campaign, which was basically it looked like they spent about 10 bucks where it's like Pete Carroll in this ad, Pete Carroll, and these coaches and players like, hey, guys, you should vote. And there's you know, the NBA had these really cool, polished ad campaigns that feels like, hey, vote, vote is a good thing and just kind of crammed it through. But even the CNN football was kind of crazy to think about where we were three years ago, where, you know, football is just constantly trying to pretend nothing's happening outside the football bubble and out there.


I just want I want I want whatever Nick Saban had. That's all I want, because Nick Saban had coach for twelve hours and that went away. But I mean, just to mean that I've personally sued the NFL, I was appalled. They own an entire day of the week and to have them stick their stick their toe into. So it's kind of been dope. But watching these athletes, these athletes aren't going anywhere. I mean, these at these younger athletes, I mean, Justin feels led a protest to want to come out and play.


These younger athletes are going to I mean, they are compelling their coaches and everyone else to get involved. I think I think that something is happening in this country. And to sum it up, I don't think this is a moment. I think this is a movement.


I just want to jump in on that. As a Buffalo Bills fan who watches every single weekend, no matter how good or bad the team has been, I remember, you know, Caillaud and quarterbacking JP Lost and all that jazz. Yeah, I watch every single one of their games win or win or lose. And, you know, if you know Buffalo and you know the Buffalo metropolitan area, while the city itself is quite democratic, the metropolitan areas most certainly not.


And what you have seen in the last year amongst the Buffalo Bills is much more of a social justice campaign compared to four years ago where you saw Rexall. I am getting on that stage and endorsing Donald Trump, and it was just like that was what was expected and accepted and it has been a completely different world this year in the NFL, at least as far as the bills have been concerned. Hey, you think about one of the goals since basically since June was how do you raise awareness?


How do you get people motivated? How do you get them engaged? It feels like all of that's happened your generation. I remember I met Harry when he was a young whippersnapper and the 538 offices that were or you like early mid 20s at that point, I twenty's at that sounds probably about right. I was mid 20s and Koney show was probably, what, thirties then? Yeah.


You're one of the young whippersnappers now, this whole generation behind you, which you can really divide almost by social media as say maybe the cutoff is like twenty eight, twenty eight and unders are so much more engaged with all that stuff. And they've grown up with social media and they're just more active in general. And from that demo like if we're just saying eighteen to twenty six. Right, that will be the most engaged voting demo we've ever had, right?


But you know why, though? Do you know why? Why? It's because it's because they're not getting their news from traditional news sources like our parents. We all go to CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, and that that's changed because we're now gravitating towards cable news, whereas our parents had the Tom Brokaw's the Peter not who was with Tom Jennings.


Tom Brokaw. Who had it? Dan Rather. Yeah, there was a winner.


There was a oh, Dan Rather. Something about I was like there was another guy too. And so but now people are starting to move and consume their news in different ways, i.e. podcasts. They're getting their news off Instagram snippets. And so it's it's changed. So you can get. Way more people involved in messaging right now than you ever could, and everyone under their phone or with their phone feels like they could push out a political message. And everybody on Twitter has a lot of grief.


I mean, that's just the way it works now.


It's that Generation Z that's the difference that cut off between the millennials and that Generation Z, those GenZE years. I'm right at the edge of the Millennials, but I am a proud millennial. Those Jenn's years. I don't necessarily always know what they're doing, but God bless them that. What is. What is Biden's message these last four days?


I mean, Bakari, I wonder what you think it is, but to me, it's been a consistent message of unity. I'm going to bring back a sense of dignity to the White House. I'm going to listen to the scientists. And I am not Donald Trump. I mean, that's implied. He hasn't necessarily said it. Trump allows it to go. But I just want to step back for a second and just remark for a guy that so many complain could not stay disciplined.


Joe Biden's campaign has been so freaking disciplined. It's been nuts, especially given the preconceived notions of who Joe Biden was.


Yeah, I mean, Joe Biden has been the most disciplined candidate that we've seen, not named Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders, by the way, has been on the same message since nineteen eighty four. So, I mean, that has been somewhat that's who he is. But I will tell you that that Joe Biden has been. Very, very much on message, what's his what's his final campaign? I mean, he's the number one, two and three issue for voters going in.


In twenty eighteen we saw the largest issue by a long shot was health care. And I think health care tied into the coronavirus are the number one issues because it's not only people. And I think that I think Republicans miss it because they treat it only as a public health crisis. But it's truly an economic crisis as well. And when you think about the millions of think about the city of Auburn, for example, or the city of Athens. Or the city of Baton Rouge and think about the money they make by having one hundred and eighty thousand people every Saturday in that city, the small businesses, the restaurants, the bars, the hotels, the police who pull you over, you know, all of those things and they're not able to garner any of that revenue.


So it's a it's a true it's a true cataclysmic event. And so I think that Joe Biden's message the last four days is, one, don't fuck anything like no mistakes right now. I mean, that is so.


So he's going full game manager, Four Corners, Dean Smith, Four Corners all day. I mean, we're not are we managing or are we just putting people out there who can shoot free throws? That's not even management. That is just just four corners all day. Don't fuck it up. Talk about coronavirus and let's get to Tuesday and let's have a good team of lawyers in place. You've got to have lawyers from the Trump side, is there a possibility if they're starting to get from their internal polling stuff, that things are starting to slip away?


Do you see him flying off the flying off the map those last two days and taking some wild swings? Because it feels like that could happen to wild swings? I feel like every presidential rally is a wild swing from the president of the United States. This idea that he's all of a sudden going to get off message. He will go on and his speeches, you know, they'll go an hour, two hours. They'll have the prearrange comments that he's supposed to give and he'll consistently go off of message.


And I just find it know I've written on this. I appeared on air on and spoken about this. I just from a purely political analysts point of view. I don't really understand how you're running a campaign in this day and age in which we're all wearing masks, in which there is a global pandemic, and that is not at the heart of the campaign that you are running and that you're basically trying to ignore it away and you're blaming the press for bringing it up.


When people are literally dying and the coronavirus cases are rising, it is political malpractice. It reminds me of that Seinfeld episode. Does it does the fact that Bryan Cranston switched over to Judaism for the jokes, does it bother you as a Jew? No, it bothers me as a comedian. This is exactly it. It bothers me as a political analyst that someone could potentially run this type of campaign because I just think it's malpractice. And Bakari, covered by far, has to be the when we remember the twenty twenty election, I think the covid piece and how Trump handled it will ultimately be the thing we remember first.


Despite all the other crazy, terrible shit that happened this year, it's still coming down and covered is getting worse as we're hit in this election.


Yeah, I think so. But I also think I mean, I hear you. But I would think the further we get away from the Donald Trump presidency, like the people who support it and not support it, but the people who vote in Trump are going to look back at this moment to be like, wow, this was kind of surreal. Like what what what do we really do? What was going on? I think people will remember. I mean, there aren't many people before this year who remember the pandemic.


They didn't nobody remember the Spanish flu. Nobody remembered the 1918 Spanish flu. They just didn't it wasn't really taught in our schools, et cetera. People will always remember Donald Trump, this Trump ism. And Trump is not going away either. The question that Republicans will have in twenty, twenty four and please don't shoot me for talking about twenty twenty four even before we through the twenty twenty election, because people like Harry are already having polls out about who the GOP nominee will be in twenty twenty four.


It's Jack Douglas and Jack Nicklaus at eighty four, making a push for whether or not it's Hillary, whether or not it's Matt, Matty Gates or whether or not it's Tom Cotton or whether or not it's Nikki Haley or whether or not it's Narey Larry Hogan or Jeff Flake or or anybody any of these names or somebody we don't even know, they're still going to go or Donald Trump is doing that. He's running for mayor, though, so we'll see. So we'll figure out how far Trump Trump ism lingers in the Republican Party.


I think it's around us that, yeah, I think Junior will be the the torch carrier you would think over the over this next four years. And God only knows how fast he can rise up the ranks, whether in terms of the the Trump piece of this. Harry. Is there anything he is there a Hail Mary he can throw with four days to go that could actually flip any of this, in your opinion? I mean, look, there are no knowns.


There are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns. I'm sure there is some scenario in which he can do something that we haven't thought about that can change things. Right. There's a reason because I was thinking about the comet, the comet thing four years ago is the obvious parallel, right. That comes out of nowhere. And that actually did matter. Yes. I will point out that we're well past that point in the cycle. Right. I think that with some hope among conservatives and Republicans that the Hunter Biden stuff could turn into that.


As it turns out, it really was not picked up by the mainstream media. The story you just did not develop into the type of bombshell that I think conservatives were hoping it was brought up at the debate. And I think most people just had no idea what they were talking about. And this has been a problem for Trump as he is consistently talking to a cable news audience when the people who are truly undecided at the swing voters tend to be perhaps more of a network news audience during a during election or a local news audience.


Sure, there's a possibility that Trump could do something, but he hasn't done it yet with already 70 plus million people who have already voted.


It seems to me he's probably not going to do in the final, say, ninety six hours, one hundred and twenty hours of this campaign, because he told me early on in this that we needed forgood hours from from but he would basically like three out there, complete some passes, don't get paid. Don't, don't. No. No fumbles on Weigand Sack just now.


People laughed at me when I made the comment. Here's Eddie House comparison. It's true. And you know, make the Trent Dilfer. Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl and people forget Trent Dilfer has a Super Bowl. And he had an amazing I mean, of course you didn't. But he has an amazing defense and trade. Dilfer didn't throw the ball to the other team and Joe Biden is not doing that is one of the most disciplined campaigns that you've ever.


People make it classified as being unexceptional, and that's fine. And nobody cares about that. Trent, when he trimmed in hat, when you go back and look at NFL Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, is Trent Dilfer in your top five for on talent? No. Or mobility? No. Any of those things that you would attribute to a quarterback? No, but he's a Super Bowl champion. Joe Biden came at the right time. He's disciplined enough.


He's talented enough to be at that level. And, you know, he's going to I mean, we'll know this or this by next Tuesday. But I feel like he's he's in the best position of anybody running for president. And Harry, I think I'm right, but I don't know anybody that's been in a stronger position right now. I mean, even even Jimmy Carter running against Reagan in 80 was in a stronger position right now than Donald Trump is.


Jimmy Carter has emerged a lot of support in 1980, if I'm not mistaken. So, I mean, Joe Biden's in a really, really good spot.


For first, I'll put it this way. He is in the strongest position for any challenger of an incumbent since at least nineteen hundred and ninety two when Bill Clinton was taking on George H.W. Bush. And he's held it consistently. This has been the most consistent lead since I went back. And look, since nineteen thirty six, this lead is steady as a rock. It is Tyrod Taylor not throwing interceptions, if you'll allow me that one. I still think the bulls kind of screwed him over.


He has done the Chargers and got through it, got punctured lung can get attacked by the Chargers like wait a minute, I don't like the Tyrod Taylor because they could be on the bench for life.


His own team punch.


It is the one that got attacked by his team. Doctor got a car and he let them go to the playoffs. I'll put it that way. He left. He broke the streak. Now, obviously, the help from Andy Dalton and company. But still the point is he look, there's still a shot that the polls are for. Something crazy happens. But he had Joe Biden has done what he is needed to have done and allowed Donald Trump to be Donald Trump and allowed this to be a referendum on the president of the United States.


And in doing so, he has not allowed this to turn into a repeat of 2016. Sixteen, we had the two least like candidates of all time. He's allowed Donald Trump's unpopularity to speak for itself. So the Senate, this is almost like where you have the giant boxing pay per view with the huge super fight. But then there's this other fight. That's the fight right before that's getting no publicity on this is the Senate race is basically any of any big surprises looming in the Senate?


Like what's something to watch for people who have been following that? The two biggest Rochet, the two biggest races to watch for Democrats and it's a little bit counterintuitive, are Michigan with John James in Minnesota with. Tina Smith and it seems Smith is a mess, she's running she's running for the full term, and I think that if Democrats hold onto those two seats, then they will maintain, then they will not maintain, but they will gain a majority because they're going to Democrats are going to win.


We're going to lose Alabama. With all due respect, Tammy, type of Bill is probably going to abandon the people of Alabama, like he abandoned every team he's ever coached, but he's probably going to be a United States senator. So you lose that seat. But that means Democrats have to win for that means they win in Colorado. That means they win in Arizona. That means they win in Maine with Sarah Gideon. And that means they win in North Carolina with Cunningham.


They may even win in Iowa with Greenfield. That's the kind of on the on the edge there. But if you win those four and you maintain James A. Smith, then you have Mitch McConnell is no longer the majority leader. And I think that's very important to a lot of people. And so I think that the Tina Smith and Gary Peters, who's running against John James, if they win those seats, then. They will keep that they will gain a majority.


Anything to add here? I would just say. North Carolina and Iowa are the two closest races at this particular time where Republican incumbents, the Democrats need to win at least one of those. We'll probably know on election night whether or not Cal Cunningham, despite his sexting scandal, is able to defeat Thom Tillis. So that's the big one. And, you know, just in terms of surprises, maybe you'd be looking at a Montana or a Kansas, which are hot potential for Democrats, although I don't think they'll ultimately pull it off.


And then we hit on a very briefly earlier on is the two Georgia Senate races, John, also for the long seat against David Perdue. He's been coming on very strong in the polls. But remember, the key in Georgia is you have a 50 percent rule. You have to get a majority of the vote to win on election night or it goes to a runoff in January. And that special Senate election for the retiring or the resigning, Johnny Isaacson is certainly going to be in January.


And that other Georgia Senate race could also be January. So don't be surprised or shocked if Senate control ultimately comes down to one of those two seats, which both could have runoffs in January. Wouldn't that be nice to extend the election by an additional two months?


Oh, and also South Carolina is going to be closer than it should and is so, so will Alaska. Those are two races, by the way. I just want you guys to Google Alaska Senate race is some wild shit going on up in Anchorage right now. I mean, completely. Wow. So that's also that then. This is this is the key. The Lieberman's always screw Democrats. That's just the way the Lieberman is work. I think that you're going to have a race where Raphael Warnock in Georgia probably could get to 50 plus percent.


But for. Lieberman's son being one of the Democratic candidates and also Tarver and state senator, so I think he's going to get the forty seven forty eight percent. And I think that those two ancillary candidates to get to a couple of percentage points will keep it, which will keep him from getting over 50 percent and cost Democrats a seat before we go.


Has never been on this podcast before. And randomly, it's the week that the Patriots, the the decrepit post dynasty, we're all already really bad. The Patriots are going to Buffalo, the place that Tom Brady like, literally owned for two decades. And Buffalo is favored by three and a half. And I did million dollar pics before you guys came on in. Buffalo is one of my picks to beat the Patriots, because I don't think the Patriots are good anymore.


Harry, you never expected to see this in your lifetime? You know, my old line used to be the last time the Bills made the playoffs was before my bar mitzvah. Obviously, that is no longer the case. And I will say the only memory of Tom Brady losing in New England was when they lost thirty one to nothing to the bills. I believe it was in two thousand three. Your Patriots let go of Lawyer Milloy, I believe.


Oh, yeah. Sam Adams makes that interception rumble and tumble in the ensuing thinking. Oh my God, this is a great build season like many others that went up in flames. This is very surprising to see that the Buffalo Bills are not just favored over the Patriots in this game, but favorite to win the division. All I can say is it's about time, Bekar. You love this. You love that.


I mean, I actually actually think the Patriots are going to win the division and bounce back. I think Cam Newton is going to resurface. And I think that I think that the Dolphins and bills will scrabble around for some wild card spot, as they always do. But I mean, I just can't have faith in the quarterback from the University of Wyoming. Where is he from? Wyoming state. Why Wyoming? Wyoming state.


He's a or so I thought it was University of Wyoming. Whatever is from the. I just think that I think Cam Newton and the defense are going to get on track. And I think this week you'll have a case. I'm going to put up thirty plus and I think that's enough. I hope and pray you're right, because he couldn't have been worse last week.


And these are the right side of the field. What does that can you tell me why he can't throw to the other side of the field? What does that about? Why can't he only throw on one quarter that part?


I don't understand.


And I think they're still trying to figure this out as athletes coming coming off a covid in some cases, it really seems like a mess him up. Like Westbrook's been pretty open about post covid like he just didn't feel healthy and. Right. And it was tough for him to do weight training, all kinds of stuff. And he just didn't feel like he was himself in the bubble. And I think we've seen that more and more can look like a shell of himself.


Last week it was concerning that he was given that he didn't want to run.


He couldn't even get the ball. Yeah, he was skipping. I just feel like you'll get a better cam, OK? I think that at the end of the day, if it's a Cam Newton versus Josh Allen game, then Cam Newton will win that game any day of the week.


Oh, my goodness. Do you give me you give Josh Allen less respect than my mother oftentimes gives me. I mean, my goodness gracious, Josh Allen is not a bad quarterback. He was very good at the beginning of the season. He was he was OK enough last week against the Jets, which is kind of like saying I'm a good looking person, you know, at a ugly person party. I mean, granted, they still won. They needed to do so.


Look, I feel good about the bills. I'm not going to say that they're going to go win the Super Bowl. That's not what's going to happen this year. But I'll just end by saying, look, covid is a very serious thing. And the fact that you've seen some of these players not be able to bounce back in the way that they do, I hate to be this pontification, but this serious. We are frickin mass people. Yeah.


You wear a mask. You can listen to Bekas podcast on the Ringer podcast network. You had a good one today. Yeah.


Michael Cohen was on today. I had the best guest of anybody, including here and Bakari Sellers. And also we have Ron Brownstein on Monday and we're doing a live with live post election special with the one and only James Carville.


So, Harry, anything to plug? No, not right now, Bill. All right. It was good seeing you guys. Thanks for coming on. I appreciate it.


All right, guys. All right, thanks to House, thanks to Bekar, thanks to Harry, don't forget to rewash both if you missed that on the rewash BuzzFeed Rocky four and the Extra says, don't forget to check out the ring of Dotcom this week. And don't forget to check out our newest podcast on Ringer. ABC Radio starts with Ian Wright that launched this week. If you like soccer, I would highly recommend that one and I'll be back Sunday night with the cuts.


Break it down all of the week eight action week seven. We take whatever we can to break it down. See the.