Coming up, part one of the three-part annual NBA Overs, extravaganza with Rosillo and House. Can't wait. Next. We're brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where you can find The Ringer Gambling Show at Joe House as well as Fairway Rowland. Ryan Rosillo's podcast, named after him. It's called the Ryan Rosillo Podcast.

Hey, guys. Excited to be here.

We're going to do a three-part podcast. This is part one. We are doing two divisions per pop. We do the over-handers every year for the NBA. We have a lot of fun doing it. We did really well last year. We're not going to do as well this year. This year is really hard. This is part one. We did the Northwest and the Southwest and the Western Conference. Here we go. Pearl two. All right, Rosillo, the Denver Nuggets, over under 52 and a half. They won the NBA title last year. They are a plus 550 to win the title. They won 53 games last year and the over under is right there. I'll start here. Is this the most realistic mini-dynasty we've had since the 2017 Warriors range, where you could totally see a team winning like three and four years, maybe 2015 Warriors, somewhere in that Warriors range.

You've been on this for a while now just because I think when you saw them what, live twice in that Lakers series? Did you go to two of those games?

I went to a bunch of.

Them, yeah. You just came back. You were glowing about them. They haven't even won the whole thing yet. I think this is the best team. Look, that answer I don't have for you.

But.

If you look at how they finished last year, they were 46 and 19. They went seven and 10 the rest of the way. They weren't challenged by anybody in the West. I think there's just going to be... It's likely there's a little bit more of a challenge to them. Maybe they won't care about seeding like no one does, but I think this is one of those repeats where I actually liked the over.

Me too, How's that? What do you think?

They only have to win the same number of games that they won last year to get the over. So it doesn't feel like a.

Big- Is that you're coming in that hot?

Well, how about this? I thought there might be a little bit of foreplay to this. We're going right on Denver. We're going right to the-.

Normally, we would have started with the Pacific, right? Because that's the most interesting division. We do them in part, too. But I do feel like Denver has gotten overlooked where they lost Bruce Brown. Cool. They're going to replace him with Christian Brown. He's going to get most of the minutes. They like a bunch of these rookies. They're probably going to hit on one of them. They're going to have trades that they can make in December, January, February if they feel like they're missing something.

Hey, we haven't got... Jamal Murray is not going to be coming back from anything. He's going to be coming back from looking one of the best guards in the west. If you go those first few weeks, I remember watching those games being like, Oh, man. You could see it just wasn't there yet. The rest. So all you have to have them is be challenged, which we'd expect with the depth of the West and Murray to just be the same guy all the way through. And look, I like Bruce Brown, too. But this is... Look, itch. He's Curry in that when you put somebody with him, that guy's ceiling is that much higher. And all you have to do is look at Aaron Gordon. So I feel like if you're the GM of the Nuggets, there's a bunch of players you might not like where you'd be like, Well, I like him now. Now because of who we have here.

Yeah, you check out like, Can we throw Reggie Jackson for two months? See if he's got anything left. If he doesn't, we'll flip him.

Right, 100 %..

A.

Lot of.

Strother.

Buzz out there. Dan recovered from whatever he's.

Recovering from. Is Ricky Davis still playing?

The two-man thing with Joker and Murray, I actually think they have the Championship belt. I don't think it's debatable because they won the title. But I think what those two guys do together is still the most special thing in the league. Now, Giannis and Dave, I challenged that. Everybody got excited. We're taping this on a Monday. There's a preseason game yesterday. Giannis was like, orgasmic after. He's like, I've never had space on a basketball court before. I've never played with anybody who's been double team before. It's just like shots galore being fired at people he won title with, but not really. I'm not going to get excited about a.

Preseason game. So does that mean Giannis isn't going to barrel his head down into three defenders now?

Yeah, I feel like that's still going to happen. But yeah, Yoke, J. Murray, Yanes, Dame, Booker, KD. And then there's probably like, who would you have fourth in the two-man championship rankings? Would you have Butler and Bam? Would you have Tatum and Brown? Would you have Anthony Davis and Austin Reeves?

I knew it. I knew you were doing that. You see whatI did there. I knew you were.

Going to do that. Curry and whoever. Who would you have fourth? I had Butler and Bam, actually.

Ahead of Tatem and Brown? Yeah.

Two finals in four years. Okay. Right. And Bam is better than Jaylen.

Yeah, I would rather have Bam than Jaylen. But it's just funny. It almost feels like you're not allowed to say you'd rather have Tatum than Jimmy Butler, even though I think we still think Tatum is just a little bit better.

Than Butler. Yeah. I think he's a better MVP candidate. There's a higher ceiling for him at this point. Butler is going to be in his mid-30s pretty soon, maybe.

This year. The Steph part feels dismissive to not include him in it. But whenever I hear teams or anyone talking about the top two, right? Yeah. Because it's really been about who are the top two, who are the top two, where now we have a couple of options with Phoenix or Milwaukee with the third guy. We're like, Oh, we could be back on this. But whenever we do the top two, I feel like we prioritize who the second guy is way more than who the first guy is. The second banana guy. Yeah. So with Steph, you're like, You're really going to leave him out of the four no matter who that second guy is?

It's tough because I don't even know who the second guy is. I guess you would say Clay, but you could also say Wiggins if he gets his shit together this year. And you could also say Draymond, who might have been the best of support in the League last year. Yeah, but it's already hurt.

To say him as.

A two. Yeah. Well, that's why he's lower. Then there's some Fox bonus, Moby, Mitchell. There's a Kauai PG upside piece, but we haven't really seen it in four years.

Yeah, I can't wait to get there.

Yeah, I'm like, God. I still think, too, because Murray... I thought what Murray did in the playouts last year cannot be swept under the rug. I believe that's who he is. I don't think he got hot. I think that's who he is as a player. And I think this team is going to have a little edge to it this year because they won the title. And then it's like, okay, who's going to win? Is it going to be the Lakers? It could be Golden State. It's going to be Walkie. It's going to be Boston. And they're just not mentioned. They might not care, but I think they care a tiny bit. I think Mike Malone cares. I think he-.

The only edge that I anticipate is when they play the Lakers. Otherwise, the temperament of the joker is such... Like the team goes how his- Yeah, he just leaves. He's an emotional... Yeah. But, I mean.

Does anybody think maybe he's doing a little bit too much? How little he cares about-.

You think he cares more?

I think he cares more than this. I think whatever he's presented, I think there's a level of caring a little higher than maybe what he presents. Now, I'm not saying it's a complete act. Some of the back and forth of them in the Lakers is hilarious. I forget who had it or whatever. It was like, Oh, the Lakers had conversations this offseason about Denver? Yeah. They're like, Whoa. They did? Does Denver know this? It's also new because Denver was... Usually you were right for writing them off. Yeah. You're like, How good is this team? I know we talked about the defense and the road stuff. It was funny. I looked through the top six seeds last year in the West. Only two teams had a winning record on the road. Five of the top six in the East had a winning record on the road, which is usually an indicator. If you're asking me if it's a dynasty, it's too soon for me. But if you're asking me if this was just phase one of the second phase of domination, I know we're spending a lot of time on them, but they deserve it. When I looked at 52, I was like, God, I love that.

I love that number. Because it had been 54, 55 and a half. You're like, I don't know if I can go that high with it.

Don't you think House, he's a guaranteed 50 if he's going to play like 72 games, Yokeage?

That's it.

There you go. It's like the O'Tin the Math. It's like a pencil move for 50 plus. I think that Christian Brown replacing all the stuff Bruce Brown did last year is probably the variable, but I still think he can do it. I'm a believer. What do you think of the rookies? I know you were into that draft, but KOC is all excited about the rookies and their young player potential they have.

Yeah. I feel like they just were like, we're going to role player this. But everyone is a better role player with Yokech. Your life is just going to be easier. Look, we're still sitting here. They won a title, and we're wondering who their one through four is because Michael Porter Jr is still probably disappointing.

Yeah, but not as your.

Fourth best guy. No, I mean, he's really expensive, and we know it's a medical risk. But he hasn't really delivered the way you think he could, not because of pre-draft stuff. There are flashes with him where I think he's one of the 10 best shot makers in the NBA. I'm serious. The stuff he can do, getting a shot off and making it off the dribble with his size and everything, when he gets it rolling, now, a lot of it with him is ever just putting it all together. It was a slow start where there were very few glimpses. I think, Malone, there were years ago where they were hurt at the perimeter and he still wouldn't play the guy. So it's been a slow going for him, but there's still some hope that, wait a minute, what if he's just putting it together on a night to night basis, doing more of the stuff that he's supposed to be doing on top of the shop making where their profile is even higher?

I wonder we had the big three stuff for a while, and then we moved into a Big Two thing last spring. I wonder if Big Four is going to become the new thing. I hope so. The Celtics have a nice strong Big Four, and then plus the poor Zyngas piece, but the Denver's Big Four, I think-.

That's four since '92, you think?

What was the one with Al Abdinabi? Yeah, that one. But yeah, the four-man stuff. And that's where the Milwaukee case falls apart a little bit because their fourth is Midleton. We'll talk about them later. But I just don't know what I'm getting from Midleton at this point in his career. He was already sitting out, games and practices and stuff. I like them, Verse 4, and I think they'll be able to figure out the pieces around. That's an easy over for me. Over for you, How's that? Over. Over. Okay. Well, that was easy. Now it gets tough. Let's go to Minnesota. 44 and a half, they're one of 17 West teams with a 44 and a half over or under. They're plus 550 for the division, which is basically a yokeage will get hurt bet. Minus 144 for the playoffs, plus 102 for no playoffs. They finished 42 and 40 last year. And I guess the over comes down on this question. How can Edwards become a second team All-NBA guy?

Here's the mix. That's the only question?

For them to be... That's the biggest.

Question for me. Okay.

So we're talking he's swimming in the ocean with Curry, SGA, Booker, Murray, Lillard, Mitchell, and then you get into that Fox Brunson group. But do you think he can be an All-NBA guy this year?

I do.

I do as well.

I believe it because of what we just saw from him on the world stage and what we've learned over the years about guys who get into that situation, that opportunity and thrive and what it does in terms of boosting their overall, their own confidence, their primacy- Practice habits. -like everything. Everything that you learn-.

All the quote quotes about how much they.

Loved him. That's it. Yes.

What do you have, Rosilloow? All MBA possible for him?

Look, I love him, and I think everything's possible for him. He's one of the few guys like that early on. Once you started seeing him play, and be like, she's shooting you a text or whoever. And be like, are you watching this guy? And then it felt like his personality was the right personality to bet on. And then everybody loved him. I was hearing Finch the other day talk about him, he's like that. It's funny because I used to always dismiss it with you whenever you would talk about playing for Team USA. I'm like, Why do you think this is that.

Big of a deal? I won you over on my Team USA theory?

Yeah.

Because I think- with everyone but Brandon Ingram?

He was like, What's the dual citizenship story in France? What do I need to do for that? Is there paperwork? Look, it took a long time for me, but I've started to buy into it a little bit. Yeah, I like it. That just being around the other guys.

And the coaches and the culture, the.

Practice half. Yeah. So I'm in now, but I don't know how in I am on the rest of the guys. It's a tough number. It's three more wins in the last year. There's no reason why he shouldn't take it to another level to be able to do that. But how many games is town is going to miss? How many games is going to be cleared and then not want to come back? How many- Wow. Shots. No, I'm just serious. We've been able to get one guy away from them. We need to get the second guy. That's phase two of the Timberwolves operation here.

What do you think? A town's house?

He was.

Under the microscope this summer because it didn't seem like anybody wanted to trade for him, including Portland, including the Knicks. The trade market for him with the contract that he has was not robust.

It's literally a glass half full, glass half empty approach to him. Do you say that he will regard this upcoming season as the opportunity to remind everybody of who he is, his ability to play with Gobert, there.

Was some friction. The God Can trade 2001 range? Yeah, right. I got to show everybody I still.

Got it. Don't forget about Kat.

Right.

That was well executed for a guy that's been 50. Tried my best. That was really good. Priscilla was impressed.

I was trying. I thought it was funny that you left. It's like you forgot and.

Then you didn't. Yeah, I.

Forgot about it. Because I was trying to do it.

With- You got the erratic pause in there. It was good. Continue.

Edwards to me, isn't the fulcrum player. It's Kat. Kat's the difference for this team. Their fortunes depend on how many games does he play and does this combination with Gobert work. I think Gobert is ready to be the role guy that makes the most sense. So this is really up to Chris Finch and Karl-Anthony Towns. And I'm not going to say which way I'm leaning on the total until you give me permission, but I really like this Minnesota team. I think they're eight or nine good guys on this to you.

Towns only played 29 games last year. The year before, he played 74 an average 25 and 10, basically, and shot 53, 41, 82 percentages. So if you're just crunching numbers in a computer, you're like, Is this one of the 12 best guys in the league? Without ever watching basketball game. And then you watch them and it.

Feels different. But there's something I think about with every single team and every single... I don't want to be this negative, but what's your shithead vibe factor on any team? And when we get to Memphis a little bit later on, a lot of guys I really like. But last couple of years, you guys say and do stuff. That's just like, Deandre Aiton, when he got introduced to Portland and he's like, Hey, I'm here to dominate. That's my name, Dominating. We're like, Who are you working with? You know what? That sounds really good.

But are you trying to- Dominating? So you didn't like Dominating?

Not for him. I didn't because I watched him play. And so it's like, Wait, so is everybody else's fault? So Townes has some of that stuff when he does these interviews.

He just shouldn't give interviews at all. He should do the Leo DiCaprio just-.

I referenced it too many times, but when Ben Simmons did that sit-down with JJ, that hour-long thing, I go, I don't need to know anything more about him. I go, I'm good. And so I have certain players now.

I'm that way with Jayda Pinkhead at this point. I'm good, Jayda.

Yeah, they're just interviews where you go, Oh.

Unhappy marriage. I get it.

You.

Need Tupac. I really like a lot of the guys in this team. I like Kyle Anderson. I like Mike Connolly. Mcdaniels punched a wall right at the end of last year. Still like him. Still like him.

Still like him.

I really like Naz Reed. Kind of enjoy Shaq Milton. I just think they have too much talent. Listen, this was the most overrated five game loss in recent NBA history, but they did impress me against Denver in that playoff series. They really did. I don't know why I can't get it out.

Of my head. Did you ever feel like Denver was remotely threatened by them?

I just thought they gave them good games. I thought they were competitive. And if.

We're talking- More meaningful for Minnesota than for Denver. Ever, right? In your casting of this.

Yeah, I think they had two big.

Guys to throw. For growth purposes.

Where the league is heading, where the league's gotten a little bit bigger. They have some size and some... They haven't proven that they can play Go Bear and Towns together and be a team that wins 60 % of its games. But for me, it's an over because of Edwards, and I think he has a chance to... I just think I've seen this before. I've followed this league enough times. And I've seen the arc. And he said all the checkpoints of the arc, we've seen just every single stretch of it. And I just think he's going to have a huge year. And if he has a huge year, that's a 45-win team because they have defense and rebounding. They have Mike Connolly, which they haven't really had before, assuming he has one year left. So for me, it's an overhouse. Are you under or over?

I'm over. I'm not ready to do Lock. But as we go through this and start thinking about Lock, they're on my list.

And you're.

Under, Priscilla? Yeah, I am. I don't like it because it's just not a reflection on Edwards. It's a reflection on, I think, even if Edwards gets it rolling, it's going to bother Towns. Right. I think that's the problem is that it clearly should be Edwards team all the time.

And you don't think Towns is going to be sitting around going, How do I make Anthony Edwards better? How can I be his wingman?

Because he's another guy. He doesn't think he's done anything wrong with his approach to playing the game.

Well, so that leads me to my final question before we move on from Minnesota. If I had to give you an over under 10 more months for towns and go bear together, this experiment, 10 more months, that would take us into trade stuff next July. Nine months. Let's say nine months. Over under nine months, those guys will still be teammates. Would you go over or under that?

I'd probably still say over because I think it's the reluctance to trade in the league, and I.

Don't think go bears. I would also say over because I think it's going to work this year.

I would go over as well. I think it's going to be rocky. It's going to be weird.

Yeah, but if they're winning high 40s, then what are you doing? You shouldn't- Yeah.

I think all the rocky and weird was last year. I think they got that. This is why, it's Ryan's point, is like, Townes has to grow up. If he's a grown up, then their ceiling is a high ceiling.

So you have them playoffs or no playoffs?

I have them playoffs, but I just have them under that number.

Because there are no playoffs this plus one or two. They're playing as plus 140. So they're not being one of the top six.

I know it gets weird when you go through the west, you start feeling like you're running out of playoff spots. But just because I have it in the under, I don't think they're dramatically under it. I think it's a really good number. Okay.

Next team, my beloved Oklahoma City Thunder, who I already went all in on last week on my podcast. Their under is 44 and a half. They're 6:1 to 1:1 for the division, 85 to 1:1 for the title. They were 40 and 42 last year. And I am over on them. I am over to the point that the big fan deal boost this year, which we hit last year, and they're going to, I think, put it up on the site on Wednesday, maybe Thursday, but it's going to be Celtics 50 plus wins, Lakers 45 plus wins, and Oklahoma City 40 plus wins. They're going to boost that to like plus 250. I have Oklahoma City as either the fourth or the fifth best team in the west, and I accept all counterarguments. They're too young. They're a year away. They're not going to go for it yet. I just think there's too much talent. I think the Chat thing is being slept on is how important that's going to be for what they were last year and what they need this year. I think this team is as competitive as fuck, built for the regular season just to be good week after week after week.

I'm not saying they're going to make the second round or even make the conference finals. I just think as a regular-season team, this is a team that's going to be in the mid-40s and maybe even a little bit higher. They have a top guy. They have a guy. Shay was first team all NBA last year. Gideon continues to get better. Jaylen Williams, the last two months of the season, I don't know how many times we texted about him, Rosilloow, but really looks like he might have a chance to be somewhat special. And then you talk about the chat piece of it. I just think they're going to be a bitch to play. I really like them. They're deep. I haven't heard your thoughts, Rosillow and OKC, where do you stand?

I feel like everybody likes them so much that I want to zag a little bit. I feel like Shay is just be giving a first class ticket to Superstardom when normally it's like-.

The 31 a game did impress you?

Of course it did, but-.

Did 11 free throws a game? Playing without a center?

I'm not going to admit that I always love that he just basically can go right underneath the rim and then he's so herky-jerky. It just works every single time. So it's not as gross as some of the other guys with the way they get all their free throws. I guess I just... Are we sure he is an unimpeachable top 10 player in the NBA already?

I feel like he is because I watched him over and over again last season go toe to toe with the best players in the League. And it felt like a 50-50 type of crunch time with him against the best players in the League.

So you'd rather have Shay, Gilgars, Alexander than Devon Booker.

I don't think I would, actually. But I think for if you're talking regular season, I think Shay's credentials have been more impressive. We watched him last year basically dragged that team to the playoffs, and it was like the youngest team in the league. They'd have a center and they still won 40 and 42. I have no idea how they did it. It was more impressive than anything Booker did before Chris Paul got there.

You're right. Booker didn't have much-.

I did the Ringer 100 rankings. And you were texting me about Booker versus Tudom, which I know I'll probably talk to at some point. I think I undervalued Booker maybe by two, three spots because I'm with you as a big game guy. I think there's going to be a real burn and saddle this year with this Suns team. But maybe I'm overrating what SGA did last year, but I was just so knocked. I just couldn't believe how good he was last year. What do you think, Howce? Where do you stand?

It's a math problem because of the combination of how much improved I think the West is. We're not going to have and the Lakers hovering around the play in line this upcoming season. And they got better by 16 wins last year. So that climb, it's a tall climb to go from a 16-win improvement to another five-win improvement.

Well, hold on on that climb, because I did this in my pod, but I just want to read these stats again really quick. My theory on them was that if a team... If a young team, if the assets are special enough, they will jump. They're going to head into the 50s sooner than you think, because we saw it happen with OKC. In '09, they won 23 games. They went to 50 in 2010. They went to 55 in 2011, and they were in the finals in 2012. But with that team, everybody's like, Well, Westbrook is not a point card. I know KD is good, but I don't see it. Then all of a sudden, they were doing it. Golden State was in a similar spot. 2012, they won 23. 2013, jumped to 47. It's like, Well, that was weird. Well, weird season. What does that mean? 2014 won 51 and in 2015 they won 67. And then you go back to the 99 Mavs. They were 19 and 31 in the lockout year, 40 wins in 2000. 53 they jumped to in '01 and then '57 and '02. And that was with Durk and Nash. So the question for me is, are the OKC assets special enough to potentially be in that conversation?

And honestly, that comes down on where you feel on Chat. If you feel like Chat can be an impactful guy this year. They have four guys that I think for under 23 guys, Shay is a little older, but Gidee, Chat, Jayden Williams, and SGA. I think that's a pretty special nucleus for Cillow. You seem like you're a tiny bit lower on it.

No, but I'm going to go over and I- Wow.

You prepared me for it. I don't even know what that's called. That was like a pre-Zag. That was like an Un-Zag?

I was going to go under, but I knew that the only reason I was really doing it was because it was like, Wait a minute. Every time you watched them last year, they were better prepared than most teams. They have a bunch of different ways they can attack you. They didn't have really any front line guy. Here they were fighting for the back end of the playoffs in the West.

They played small ball, unbelievable. They were really.

Well coached. Right. And even though Ched isn't like the traditional five man that's going to be running around all the time, he just adds another level of resistance that you weren't going to have with what's really a power forward in Jaylen Williams. Right. And then the other Jaylen Williams, everybody loves. And it looks like this guy could be somebody who maybe makes a couple of All-Star teams, which you add that to the guinea pig. I guess I'm like, as great as Shay's numbers were and the way everybody talks about them, it's like, do they really have enough of a second guy to be like a 45, 47-win team.

It's a good case. Who's the second guy?

It's really the argument. That's exactly it. I'm under. Under? I think they're a 44-win team.

How is you fucking traitor.

But they also like, I think they've burned me like three years in a row where I've gone like, Oh, that team is going to suck. And then you're watching them and you're going, Oh, they're super prepared. They play really hard.

They're not going to suck because Dagnalt.

Is- I'm saying two years ago. Two years ago when they had four wins. But I think we got going into that year, that roster. I'm like, Oh, they're going to go under. They're going to try to get the pick. And then last year's number was a lot lower than the 40.

I think they're going to be a hard team to play when they're home, too. I think they.

Were.

Last year. They're bringing off Trayman, Cason, Wallace, the other, Jaylen, Williams, Thorp might be coming off the bench, but they're going to have these teams they can throw out as a second unit with real defense, with real energy, with some shooting. I really like this team. And you were talking about your instinct was to zag because so many people like them. This is how I got into trouble with NFL this year with the Lions and with the Jaguars. I was like, Oh, man, everyone likes the Lions. Ilike, I'm going to zag and do Green Bay. And then you watch two the Lions games and you're like, Holy shit. How did I go to the Lions?

No, you're right. Because I don't think there's a higher neutral approval rating of any NBA team than OKC right now. Yeah. Of all the stuff you read and go through it. I'm like, Man, everybody just likes them. So that's why we're like, we can get.

Five more wins. Well, there's.

One other.

Piece we didn't talk about all the picks. I'll just do it quickly. But they have two top four protected from Houston in '24, '26. They have clipper's unprotected in '24, '26. What a disaster. They have another.

Swap- Like going back and thinking that you gave up those picks.

Oh, my God. They have a swap with the Clips in '25. They have a Philly top six in '26. They might not have been beat at that point. The top 14 from Miami, two top 5s from Denver, and they have all their own picks. I actually think Toronto is going to be better than most, but let's say, Siakom becomes available. Let's say they just decide we need one more big guy, KOC throw out Robert Williams last week. I was like, Robert Williams sounds great for this team. Just add him for 20 minutes a game. I think it's going to be really easy for them to add one more guy and it'll probably be a big guy. But I like where they are. I'm in on this team. To me, the question would be, why not us? Copyright Kurt Schilling, almost 20 years anniversary. Why not us?

Good time for a Schilling reference.

Everybody likes that guy. Yes, he's red hot right now. All right, so House over... Super high. Priscilla over. I'm sorry, House under over, Rosilloow over Simmons over. Okay, it doesn't get any easier with the Utah Jazz. Over under 35 and a half, they went 37 and 45 last year. To make the playoffs, they're plus 420. To make the playing game, they're plus 250. Is this the single best asset team for you other than OKC from a player's picks? Just things standpoint, Rosilloow? Just things.

I like Oklahoma City's players better.

I have OKC One. I think Utah might be in the running for two. They own six of their next seven firsts. They have three mini firsts and a swap. They have a Lakers first in 27. They have two Cleveland firsts and a Cleveland swap. So they have all these different things they can do. And it also looks like they nailed the draft. I hate overacting the preseason. I hate it. I try not to watch too much of it. But this Keyante George really seems like he might actually be special right away. I don't know how they're going to keep him off the court. Have you watched him, Marcylla?

Yeah. There are certain games in college. If you watch the Kansas game, you're like, How did this guy not go top five? He has some of that in him. But then you watch some of the other stuff he does, you're like, Okay, this is why he hung around for a little while. But you'd at least rather see a guy. I think he's playing at Fog, where he was incredible. And you're like, You're playing there in that environment that young. There's no issues whatsoever. But welike any of these score-first guys that put a big numbers in high school, and you're like, Are you just defaulting all this shit that worked in high school all the time? Look, one of my other favorite guys is Taylor Hendrix, even though I can see the bad side of this where it's like, Yeah, actually just wasn't that good or into it. But he was so smart. He's that big, and he could actually shoot. But the George call, if they decide they have to play him a lot at Point Guard in the NBA this early, that's what has me leaning under. And they got off to that great start last year.

I think that's the other part house.

So this is the problem with them because you have to make a choice about whether you think they want to be competitive or not because Will Harvey is another stud coach. We're all we're talking about these teams with these incredible coaches.

Well, and to that problem, they owe their 24 first to OKC, and it's top 10 protected. Let's say they're 25 and 26 with 31 games to go, and it's like, What do we want to do? Do you want to make a run and we still fall short of the plan? And then we give the 11th PIC to OKC. Is that.

Worth it? Yeah. Look, they were 10 and three.

Yeah. This is the point.

Remember? Because I think we all had them under. We did.

Because I forecasted what they were doing last year. We thought they had a specific intention, and it wasn't that. We were dead wrong. And what also gives me pause is there are credible reports that they went hard after Dame. A team going after Dame at this stage of where he is in his career? That's not a team that is looking to reduce their competitive level. So I don't know. When Mark in in play last year, they were 500 team. They won 49 % of the games in Mark in and played.

Yeah, there's the two pass. This is one of the hardestovers because I could see them being sellers in January, February. Like, Olinik is a perfect January, February guy. It makes like 12 million a year. You could totally see the Celtics, Miami. There's a bunch of teams you could just see him on. Collins is flippable. I keep looking at their team.

But how do you trade for Collins and then go under? Although I just think John Collins is this mystery guy.

All the time. Do you know he's only 26?

Oh, yeah. No, he's like the.

Youngest guy. It's unbelievable. Catoom thinks he's only 26. It's like, Caleb, Hartt, and Tucker is 22. That was the other one where I was like, Wait, what? I feel like he's been in the League for 10 years. Here's the case for them going over house. We've watched Danny do this before with the Celtics in the mid-2010s. There's like, Rebuild. Here we go. They're collecting a lot of assets. And then all of a sudden, he was zag. He did that Isiah Thomas trade. What year was that? 2014?

Yeah, they were supposed to be rebuilding and they were just actually competitive. All of.

A sudden they were a playoff team. Yeah. And it was like, Wait a second, what are we doing? And then a year later, they're in round two in the East Finals. And he's like how I try to be when I play fantasy football. Where I'm just like, I don't ever... Or fantasy baseball, too. I'm never going for it or not going for it. I'm always like, What's the right trade? But I'm just trying to have fun. And Danny Angel, the real-life GM of that. This could be a situation where Toronto is like, Hey, we don't know if we want Siakom anymore. And Dana is like, What do you want for him? And all of a sudden, he's trading for Siakam. And the owner is like, Wait, I thought we weren't going for it this year. And Dana is like, Yeah, Siakam, he's good. We'll figure it out. So, I don't know, 36 doesn't seem like a lot. I think I'm a... Or it's 35 and a half. I think I'm an over.

I think I'm an over also.

And this is my fourth straight over, which, believe me, I have just a shitload of unders coming. But I think I'm an over for them. I think they're somewhere in the mid high 30s.

The problem is the rest of the west. I'm like, whose wins am I.

Taking from? They're also a very good home team.

That's why I went under on OKC, by the way. Okay. That math problem that Ryan.

You over or under?

I'm under. But I don't like doing that to Will Harvey, but-.

I like their talent. I really like their coach. And even if they decide to pack it in near the end, that still might be enough to keep that top 10 pick. But Agbajie, we didn't mention him. They doubled down on Jordan Clarkson. They gave him more money. Kessler just played in Team USA. He didn't play that much, but I think he was one of the.

Surprise guys. Chris Dunn, back in the fold.

Chris Dunn is back. This could be the year. All right. Well, last one I'm going under just because I can't do five unders in the same division, but it's the Portland Trail Blazers. Twenty-seven and a half is the over under. And as much as I love this team as a League pass team, and I do like a lot of the assets, the west is too good and something's got to give. And this team will be a seller, I think, December, January with Bragden and with Robert Williams. Keeping those guys would be nuts. Maybe even Jeremy Grant, who they just signed to an extension. But I think this team will aggressively try to get more picks as we head to December, January, and that 27 and a half is just a lot when every night you're playing a good team. So it's an under for me, Rosilloow, what do you got?

I have an under as well. I mean, even if they don't trade those guys, when you have a young backcourt that's also going to be bad defensively, they would have to be at a really high level offensively immediately. I think Aiton is going to put up better numbers than we've seen from him in years.

It's a Mo Joe Barry Carroll, like 22 and 12?

I just think Aiton is going to be a little less deferential to this group than he would be to Chris Paul while he was still there, Durant, Booker. It's just a little tougher to be like, Hey, can I have the ball more? And this group, he can do it. I can't wait. I mean, even the scoop preseason stuff, there's moments where I just get so aroused. Sorry. Yeah, I'll just say it.

The pick and roll stuff with him is pretty special.

His gear to finish, when you're like, Wait, is he think he's going to finish right now? And that's one of my favorite thing with small players to be like, Wait, this guy is going to be able to finish. Because we'll see other super athletic, smaller players be like, Oh, guess what? You're going to play in the League a long time, but you're never, ever once going to be able to finish the rim. You don't have that finishing package. So I'm with you. I can't wait to watch it. I think Aiton has better numbers. They're not going to trade all these guys. I don't think that would happen, but I think it's a numbers game in the west. So I'm under 27 and a half.

They'll flip Robb, and I think they'll flip Robert Williams.

Okay. They might want Robert Williams, though. Like, if he stays healthy, which is a massive if, almost an unlikely if, if he stays healthy to put next to Aten defensively. Although I don't know, like Robert Williams sometimes- That's pretty weird. Yeah, but there's also, and this is to your point, actually. There seems to be a lot of big defensive guys that have these insane metrics that I'll watch and go, Is that guy actually that good on defense? Or is he being asked to do... It's the Brooke Lopez thing.

We talked about this before. It's either the Brooke or it's the guy who plays nine minutes, and he's an awesome nine minutes. He's going full speed, but you can't translate it to 40.

Yeah, because when you looked at the Brooke Lopez stuff, he was like, Look what he does now on contests at the rim. I was like, Okay, well, let me look at it from this way. He never has to move. He's got one of the best perimeter defenders ever in Drew and then Yanis, who's.

Just horrifying. We'll see what his stats are this year with Dave Lohre trying to stop tray on. Good luck.

Yeah. So I've come to the point where I'm even... With more access to numbers, I'm even more confused because there's just some numbers out there with some of these big guys that tell you that they're point differential. And even some of the Jaron Jackson numbers are absurd. Yeah. And you're like, Okay, but what does that mean? Like you're not going to score on him, or he's.

Only- Then he gets five rebounds and three.

Team USA games. We knew that was coming. Yeah.

I'm still mad about it. There's a Chauncey Billups piece to this two house. It's an under. Oh, hey.

Take it easy. I'm a guy. I don't.

Like that. Love Chauncey, the player.

I'm not sure this... This is a really weird team where you have a bunch of guys who are like, Hey, man, I could probably use five more shots a game. Jeremy Grant, like, Hey, man, clear out. Because he had that in Detroit. I didn't resign here to stand in.

The corner. Simmons is like, Dames finally gone. Sharp is like, This is my year.

I'm the best guy in the team. Clear up for me. And then Aiton is like, I should be averaging 25 and 12. So I don't know.

You got Chris Murray and be like, My brother ain't shit.

Kevin Knox, finally. Yeah. And then poor, Tieball, who's just going to have to guard everybody. Yeah, it's a weird team. It's an under for me. So three unders. Sorry, Portland. We'll take a break and we're at the Southwest. All right, we're moving to the Southwest. This pod is about to go on tilt. There are some weird teams in this division. We'll start with the Memphis grizzlies. 45 and a half is the over under for them. They went 51 and 31 last year. They've been one of the most consistent, reliable, regular-season teams we have. Really, the only big thing they did was they brought in Marcus Smart. There's a Derek Rose thing that people are excited about that I'm not even going to acknowledge because he hasn't been a rotation of the guy in two years. Their depth is a little weaker and they don't have jaw for 25 games, which seems relevant for the over under. 45 and a half seems too high for me because there's a Marcus Smart. Guys, I got this until Jaw comes back that I just watched Marcus Smart for 10 years. Guess what? He doesn't have it. I'll hold my thought.

What are your quick thoughts on the grizzlies, Marcylla?

I want to like them more. But it was weird a couple of years ago in that Golden State series where Jaw started hinting at like, Wait a minute, what's up with you? Remember, he was like, That's a code break. And it's like, Nobody touched you. Then it was like they talked to all this shit. But then when they would lose, they couldn't do anything. Then that carried over to the Dylan Brooks thing.

It can't all be Dylan Brooks though.

No, but he's gone. Whatever. They weren't healthy. They were very, very unhealthy. If that team were healthy and there wasn't all the job bullshit, I don't know if they lose that series of Lakers. Last couple of years without jaw, 21, 22, they went 20 and five. They went 11 and 10 without them last year. I think the defensive numbers, it's more than a small sample. They're better defensively without them. I'm going over here, despite some personality stuff with the team where I'd like it just to mature. I also think the 25 game suspension is really excessive, but that doesn't seem to be a popular opinion.

Wow.

It's a lot. It feels like there was some breach with the league in hand. If there's more.

To it that I don't know that I'm wrong. I think there's more.

To it than I'm just never going to find out.

But if.

It is- It seems like a lot.

But again, in the moment, it's really hard to be the guy to be like, Hey, this is really stupid. You shouldn't be doing this. I think 25 games is an insane number. But they have a good track record without them. I still like this team when they're healthy. I think they've done a really good job with the depth of talent here. So I'm going over despite... I want to see this team, Postbrook's jaw coming back. I just want to see them be like the young, fun team. Now be the grown up team that beats other teams.

We got us.

Over. I like Memphis. Okay. I like the depth.

This is one of our big disagreements so far.

The point that Rosillo made about their defensive numbers and their competitiveness defensively, especially at the beginning of the season during the suspension. This is when they go out and catch some bodies. We didn't get a real good feel for what the...

He's laughing. No, we're in agreement.

The Luke Kenard bit can't be understated. They haven't had a shooter.

Like that. Which part that he's bounced around the league?

Well, I mean, it's a situation. This could be the best possible situation. And Stephen Adams returning to health means that Triple J gets to go back to the position that he should play, which is power forward. He's not comfortable playing center, which is why he only.

Averages five- They were in the third-string center last year. I like Memphis.

They also kick ass at home. It's just you cannot understate how competitive they are in their own building. I think they lost five games last year at home.

Starting lineup is Smart and Bane. Looks like Ziaire Williams, Triple J and Stephen Adams. Off the bench, Cunard, unless he starts. David Roddy. Can't say I was impressed by him.

Last.

Year. The body? Lofton, Tillman, Santee, Eldama, Conchar, Derrick Rose.

Eldama complains a lot, but he's a legit rotation guy.

In the fourth.

Quarter, by the way. I don't like the depth compared to where they had a couple of years ago. I don't. Now this is where Verner is going to come in like, Oh, Jesus Christ, Simmons. We win 50 games every fucking year.

What the fuck? B minus.

He doesn't really... He doesn't F-bomb that often. The only F-bombs when we're on the phone or whatever. He doesn't.

Often- You voted for Marcus Smart two years ago, Defense Player of the Year.

Hey, you all say what you want, but John Conchar.

I just think the 25, if you told me Jaw was playing the entire season, I would go over. But if you're telling me they're going to go 46 and 36 when they're probably around a 50-win team, do I think Jaw being gone for one-third of the season is worth five less wins? I do. I think they're somewhere between 43 and 45, and that's where I have them. I have a question for you, Cicillow, about the, would you bet if I gave you minus one-thirty, smart revenge comeback here plus 115 people realizing in December the Celtics probably sold high on them, where would you put your money?

We already know the answer to sell high. I mean, the funniest thing ever of all the stuff that we get blamed for is like, oh, now you don't like Smart because you get traded. It's like, have you not listened to us? You just hold on yourself. This has not been the Marcus Smart fan pod.

No, and I love Marcus Smart. I did not love him last year. I thought he looked like a tight end that was in his last.

Legs of being a starter. I think two years ago is the best basketball he's ever played. He was great.

But he was not that.

Good last year. Three years ago was, I thought, brutal.

And when they talk about the defense with him, he got lit up by I can't even count how many guards lit him up last year.

Everybody get a boner because he would stand up against a power forward and be like, Look at him. He can switch on anybody.

He just wasn't that good defensively last year. Now, maybe he was physically beaten up. Maybe he'll be awesome this year. Maybe he was climbing the mountain like Rocky Balboa to have a fuck you year. Very possible. I told Verno, I thought that was possible. But I also think the Celtics, I think, feel like they sold high. So we'll see.

I wonder with him, there was something going on between him and Joe Mass. There was. All season from game one.

There was. I wonder if- There was a leadership thing with him that I think they felt like he had a little bit of a hold over the team that maybe wasn't great. And I think they wanted the young guys to-.

If we see him and Taylor Jenkins out there.

I could see him being like, It's Marcus's time for a.

Little bit. Here are my ideas.

Here are my ideas, Taylor. Yeah, so that scares me on the total. And no, Tias Jones, who's like, I don't know if I've had a favorite backup. Love Tyas Jones.

He was really important.

For them. Right. I don't know that I've ever liked the guy that comes off the bench as much as him in recent memory. I mean, granted, it's not like I voted him sixth man or anything like that.

I don't think I did. Can we talk through the first 25 games of Crunch time for them where it's Smart, Stephen Adams, who-.

No, this is what it is.

-i used to foul him. He's a bad free.

Throwing him. It's Desmond-Bane after what number of game going, hey.

It's Desmond-Bane just night after night being ridden and Canara spot in the... But over and over again, it's going to be like the Celtics where the ball is going to find Smart with a minute left and he's going to decide whether to win or lose. I think that's 50-50 maybe a little worse.

You might be pulling me back to the underside, but I'm not doing it.

I know I'm going to watch this and go, Oh, I can't believe I... Or it's going to go the other way and go, Oh, my God, this team is really good. I'm such an idiot.

Because they were unhealthy on top of everything else they were going through.

That was a really unhealthy thing. But Adams is unhealthy all the time.

He's 29 years.

Old, he's played 2,000 NBA games.

Even Zahir, who I didn't love. Like in the draft, he only played like 30 games for him last year. So I think.

Triple Js had some injury, I think at least in three.

Years, right?

Yeah, LaRavia. And he played team USA. It's a lot of Desmond-Bane and it's a lot of is smart. Just quickly, where do you have Jah in the Can you please get your shit together rankings? Is he won? I think he might be one for me. But you can make a strong case for Zion.

Just ahead of Sandoval?

I put a little reality TV in there for me. Yeah.

I think I'm rooting for Jah way more than Sandoval.

How about Zion?

I'm rooting for Jaw more than Zion, even though I like Zion more as the player because I think with Zion, we can get a weird self-inflicted debate here or who's done the more egregious thing. But some of the Jaw stuff feels like a cry for help. Zion is just like, I don't give a fuck.

When the GM comes out during the summer and basically says, really proud of Zion. He's handling himself like a professional all summer. It's like, cool, the guy is going to be his fifth NBA season. I'm psyched that he's been a professional. It just seems like it's a real problem as we'll get to-.

Right, like, Zion's problems could be fixed with him just deciding, Hey, I don't want to go down this path. You know what I mean? Yeah.

I don't think the same is true of Jaw.

Well, it's a different conversation where you can win the debate against me by saying, Well, Jaw clearly is the guy that you'd be less likely to root for because he's doing this other stuff. Which again, depends on-.

I agree with you. There's some cry for help stuff with Jah, where it's like he already knew he was.

On.

A yellow card.

John at least knew like, Hey, stay in shape and want to play basketball. Okay, fair enough. Where Zion, the stuff I've heard from the three different... They've tried everything with him. They tried Alvin Gentry, who was like, I'm not going to hold his hand. He tried Stan, who has forgotten more about hoops than most people have, but that didn't work. And then it's like, all right, you're going to be bringing Willy, who I think is a terrific head coach.

Now you got Borrego in there, too. It's a good babysit him.

Well, I just don't want the 30 for 30 on Zion when he's 35.

Well, we've certainly filmed the first 45 minutes of it.

I could be totally wrong, but I've already convinced myself that this was a lot of weird shit for John very quickly. But then again, sometimes when I look at the.

Tweet- We've seen people bounce back from that though.

Yeah, but you know what? Actually, I'm going to challenge this. There's been a few tweets from Jaw where I'm like, Oh, wait, maybe you don't get it.

The stuff where it's like- It'd be three times a week for the therapy.

Yeah.

The Zion piece of they were talking. I saw on Twitter there was a jumping clip of him in a layup line where he did a dunk. I saw it on Twitter or TikTok or my son sent it. Somebody sent to me. It was like, Oh, Zion has been putting in work. He just did like a dunk. And I'm like, That's not even close to what he looked like at Duke. Athletically, he's not there anymore. I don't think.

You're right. I watched a Duke-.

Duke- The Zion is completely there. It's like a fucking one of a one.

It's crazy how that happens. I was watching the Steph Harden game where Steph had 33 in the second half after Durant had gotten hurt. And even watching those guys move around four years ago, it can almost be alarming. And watching the Duke, Zion stuff, you're like, Oh, that guy's gone.

Like, he's gone forever. Remember what happened to Blake Griffin in 2012, Clipper's early lab city, Blake Griffin. And then by the time we got to 16 after he had a couple of surgeries, he just wasn't the same explosive jumper anymore.

No, Rasheed Wallace had a quote about this where I forget somebody came in because Rasheed used to just be violent at the rim in the beginning, and he was huge, but he had massive pop. And he had said something like, You got those dunks for four or five years. Right. And I don't care who you are. You're just not going to have that same explain. I'm thinking like, What can I be saying that at 26, 27? But for a lot of guys, he's right. Unfortunately, we've been denied the Zion.

It's never.

Coming back. I don't think, dude. He closed out on the guy in the corner and blocked a three-point shot.

That was the greatest basketball highlight moment of your life until the 19 things Wemby is going to do this year.

Yeah, I don't know. Look, you just get bigger as you get older and all that stuff.

But he's not in the air anymore. All right, we got to keep going. We're going, I'm under you guys are both over on Memphis. Surprising. Okay, Dallas, we can spend one minute on this or we can spend 30. The over under is 43 and a half. They're plus 185 for a division, which is an interesting short of Memphis, if you want to get excited. They're somehow 25 to win the title. I'm happy to book those bets. Minus 192 for the playoffs. I don't know where to start. Where should we start, Rosila?

Okay. Well, if you want to Trump it all with they have Kyrie as their number two guy. Good luck with the over. It's a hard argument to counter. But 43 and a half, I think it's the lowest you're going to get with Luca at the stage of his career. I think Luca finally is going to be a little pissed off about everything, feeling like he still was doing it the right way, even though hes that he needed to step up his game. He could make an excuse to his way was always working because they made to the Western Convert Finals two years ago, which was still weird with the fact that they beat Phoenix. I'm still not quite over that one. But at 43 and a half, knowing they won 38 games last year still were tanking at the very end to protect the pick, and they won 15 two years ago. And I think Josh Green is going to be good. I think Grant gives them something stable. They also.

Brought in. Something stable, like the sound of conversation?

Well, he's just not Christian Wood. A voice talking? They don't have the Christian Wood option anymore because once you have to get Christian Wood on your team to understand you're like, Oh, wait.

Well, we've had five years at Luca. How many guys have been like, Well, we got to get rid of that guy. He doesn't fit here. Does anyone fit with Luca?

Oh, it's definitely getting to the dangerous...

I just said we've been so hard on James Harden and it's just like, who does fit with Luca?

No, there's-There's.

Seth Curry fits with them because we've seen it and they brought Seth Curry back. So I was.

Excited for that. I love seeing the hope for Daante Exxom that he's been so.

Nasty recently. Shout out to Danny Chow. He's on Exxom Island by himself with.

Just some rice. Give me the over, which I wouldn't want to do with Kyrie, but I just think it's a low number for what a great Luca year.

Can you put that in pencil until I'm done with my Dallas part? Because I might bring you back. Okay. What do you have, House?

I also prefer the over because of the esteem that I heap on Luca.

Okay. Kyrie has not had a normal NBA season since 2017. What are we doing in 2017, Rosillo? What are we doing around April 2017. Were you with Van Peld at that point? No. Do you have your own show?

No, I think Cannell just got laid off and I was in Manhattan Beach looking for a house and they were like, You're not being laid off. Can you please come back? Okay. That was actually exactly-.

How about you, Has. What was going on in 2017 for you?

I feel like I was trying to... In April, I probably was trying to figure out who could pay for me to go to the Masters. That's every year.

Yeah. 2017 for us, I think, was year two of the Ringer. He's played 290 games in the last six years.

Is that low?

Yeah. He's played 22 playoff games since the 2017 finals. And every year he figures out a reason to be unhappy about something or to go sideways on something. And I just can't get out of my head that he's going to try to force himself to the Lakers in January, February. They have all these assets that are ready to trade. They did that Russell contract specifically to trade it. And if anything about the situation is unhappy and he thinks he has another place to go, we've seen what he does. And I just don't trust it. And I don't really think he even necessarily wanted to resign with Dallas. I just think he did. Now, he's probably going to... Somebody will cut this clip and put it on his Twitter timeline, and then he'll tweet at it with some weird emoji. That'd be.

Pretty cool, though.

I'm just saying this is a six-year track record of when was the last time you had a normal NBA season? Six years. This would be year seven. So I'm going under. I just don't trust them. If you're the second best player on the team and your name is Kyree, and I don't really love the rest of the team. They're relying on two rookies. Lively is going to play. The Duke fans weren't even happy about Lively. This was a year ago. It was in college. Prosper, they're going to need to play. Josh Green, who had some moments, but was buried by the end of last year. And then Grant was getting DMPs on Boston. So on paper, I get it. I was like, Oh, I got this. But I don't really trust any of those guys. I don't trust Jadenhardy. Seth is probably the most reliable third guy in the team. I like Grant.

I like Josh Green way more than Jaden Harden.

But they buried him last year. Remember that Josh Green fell out of the rotation by the end of the year? I like Josh Green, too. Powell, how many bat-bats can he get?

I like him as a backup in this spot. But to Lively being the starter-.

It's crazy.

God, everybody likes Lively more after he left Duke. I feel like that's one of those NFL College football disconnects where one group can't believe the way the other group is talking about a player. In this case, I didn't love Lively's draft stuff at all. There's times he didn't even know he was right next to the rim. Right. There's this one clip I.

Have of- Is that R rookie centers.

I'm sorry. Go ahead. No, I just feel like Luca coming in a little pissed off knowing how disappointing last year was. Luca is good enough to get you to 45 wins.

That's my view as well. And to your point, everything that you laid out about Kairi misbehaving this upcoming season could be true, and they can still win games. It's better for him to play well and try and force what he wants.

I just think that's been, I think, top three most dysfunctional NBA organization for the last 10 years. Not the last five, for the last 10. They've had the most weird shit and just hard stuff to figure out. The most Zags and trades and they looked into the trade. But I just don't see any cohesiveness with anything about them. And I don't trust Kyrie. So if I'm wrong on this, so be it. But I just couldn't risk kicking myself. I'm like, God damn it. I got sucked in. My career team, I'm not doing it.

It's just a low bar, 44 wins over.

But here's the thing. I'm with you normally on Luca, so good, it's a guaranteed 45 wins. But the League is awesome. There's so many great players now. I don't know if you can just write that. To me, it's Yoke, Giannus are the only two now that you can say that's 50-wins plan. We've seen Curry missed the playoffs. We saw Luca missed the playoffs last year. So I'm out. All right. I'm under you guys are both over. We've had some good disagreements this year. When are we on the clock with Luca for you, Rosilloow? What if they start out at 24 and 26?

Yeah. Look, I think the hard and thing that you brought up is interesting because it was like in the beginning you're like, Oh, my God. It's amazing. Look at the numbers. And those two series that he had against the Clippers are like all time things. You don't have to look at the numbers. You're just watching the games. This guy is on another level, the battle he was having with Kauai there. But when somebody needs the ball this much, you do wonder, like I always wonder with the high usage rate guy at the top, and it's worked for other teams. But a lot of times you're like, Okay, the best option is him having the ball and making the decision in every single possession. But is that actually the best option once you get into the playoffs? And it really comes down to what that person wants, where it's just not my favorite, despite how impressive he can be and how great the numbers are.

I don't see a lot of evidence of those two being able to play together either, and not so defensively. I just have a lot of questions about this team defensively.

You didn't like five and 11? No. That didn't grab your attention.

I like when Kyrie tells the other guy how smart he is when he's like, Hey, if you were smarter, you would have understood that I was doing this.

Well, we've officially arrived at the single hardest team for the Overhenders. Should we take one more break, Kyle, or no? Let's take one more break. It's time. The hardest of the 30 teams, New Orleans Pelicans. There's a giant ceiling for this team. There's a massive floor with this team. The overrunners is 4040, 4, and a half plus 2.10 for this division, if you think they can beat Memphis and Dallas, 42 to 1 for the title. They're minus 1.32 for the playoffs, which to me is stunning to me that they have minus odds for the playoffs. They've already had some injury stuff. Trey Murphy had a meniscus thing. He's out for at least the first two months of the season. We've seen with meniscuses, they always take a little bit longer than people say. Nance has some stuff going on. Alvarado has some stuff going on. And that was basically their.

Depth- Nagey.

Ingram is coming off a really, really, really weird Team USA experience where they basically scratched them for the last two games. The deal is get a virus. We haven't seen Ingram and Zion play enough together to even really know what that is. It's a team where I like a lot of the assets. But remember that show, The Offer? I was like, I like a lot of the on the show and I really like The Godfather, but the show is not totally working for me. That's The Pelicans to me.

That guy was so good as Robert Evans. He was great.

Matthew Good? Yeah, Matthew Good. He's killing it.

Yeah, I ended up reading the biography after that show. I wanted to know more about him. I was like, How can anybody become that interesting? Anyway, give me the over. Fuck it.

Wow.

The thing is, I knew that was going to happen.

Yeah, it's great. We're due. We're due. We're due. We're due for one season of Zion. I believe in it.

He is that this is the brokeback. I can't quit you. I can't quit you, Zion. I can't quit you. You just can't quit him. When he was point forward for that 25 games, it was the most exhilarated I've ever seen, Rosilla.

By fresh- I was losing my mind because he didn't even know what he was doing. Then I would see him learning like, Oh, this is what they're doing to meet defensively. Then he'd figured this out. He's a good pastor on these drives. I was like, Okay, I'm in. Because yes, at one point last year I thought this was the most talented one through nine, one through 10 in the entire NBA. And if you're giving me just any chance of good luck, because we haven't had a lot of it down there, give me the chance of good luck over 44 and a half, I'm going to lock it in.

Oh, okay. I know.

We're not doing that yet.

We're not doing that yet. But okay, what do.

You have us? That's the only one.

You.

Know this about me. I am nothing if not a petty gambler, which is to say if I invest in you and go super hard and you start to... They had the top record in the West-.

This is the Italian in house.

It really is. And the whole thing completely collapses, falls apart, and I lose all that money. I'm sorry. Fuck those motherfuckers. Under. Under. There's too much bullshit going on all the time. You went through just a small bit of the injury stuff. But I'm not gambling on Brandon, Ingram, and Zion. Not doing it. So F-T-M.

So their last six seasons was 33 wins, 30, 31, 36, 42, last five seasons. New Orleans has had two playoff series wins in 20 years. They've had one- That's low. -150-win season. They've won two lotteries. They have more lottery wins than 50-win seasons. And then if you tie in the history of the New Orleans Jazz, it's just something about basketball in this city has not worked. And even when it seems like it should be working, like last year, it's this 20 game window. And we're going, Holy shit, are they going to be the One Seed? I remember we might have even done a podcast right around then or just so low.

They were 23 and 12. We were like, Man, look at all these teams juggle. That One Seed race the first few months of the season in the west was awesome.

We love them. At this time last year, we went to the whole thing. We throw so many flowers at their feet.

I think I had Zion traded two years ago.

Well, here's the big question, and this determines you over and under. If it's just an in or out, are you in on Zion or out on Zion at this point? Out. I think I'm out, too. But you're still in. You can't quit him.

I'm just thinking one year he has to be healthy. So that's my play. There's not a lot of science behind it.

Why does that have.

To be that way? I would because I like the rest of the roster that much. And dude, I think we did this two years ago because the last year we did the preview we were here. Two years ago, we did it at your house. Yeah. So that was the very first. And I've been wrong with these in the past, but bringing up the idea of flirting and bringing the sales people down and bringing your marketing team in and going, Look, let's get something for him that salvages because we've tried everything with it, and it doesn't work. And there's always something weird about the college football coach who wins at a major program that guarantees you two more good jobs. Yeah. Or like the guy that dates somebody really hot at a restaurant, and then he gets dumped, and then there's somebody else who's attractive. He's like, Well, I guess I'll give him a shot. Yeah. So you want to be rewarded on the first transaction here? And I still think there's a Zion price that would make it enticing. But you'd have to get everybody on board because he's still their star.

They have all their firsts. They have their choice between 24 or 25 Lakers first. They can do pick swaps with Milwaukee in 24 and 26, and they have the Bucks 27 first. So if they're in the mix, the thing that scares me about going under with them is if they're in the mix at all and guys start becoming available and teams become disappointed or whatever, they could move fast. I just don't trust it. And I would rather bet on the past history versus the hope that Zion can turn it around.

I see. The thing is, I think if everybody else is right, they could still win 45 games.

Yeah. I see them right around that 44.5. I could see them winning 45, 44, 43. It's going to be somewhere in there, but I'm going to go ahead or under.

Everybody's upset about the team USA, but think how good he was towards the.

End last year. But is he one of those guys that he's good when he has the ball all the time? But the moment he's got to fit in with a bigger... I was alarmed by how much he didn't fit in with team USA. Like, alarm.

Maybe he thought it was a scrimage.

Next one, Houston. So we have Houston and San Antonio left. We can go a little bit fast on this. But Houston is tough because they're over under 31 and a half. They're plus 980 to make the playoffs. They were 22 and 60 last year. They had Fred Van Vleet. They had Dylan Brooks. They had Thompson, who everybody likes. They somehow came Wintmore, but it doesn't seem like he's going to play that much this year. They had Rosilloow's favorite guy, Jeff Green. And Shane Goon is now 6'11, which nobody has investigated him, still trying to figure out what happened with that. A lot of assets? How? So there are enough basketballs for this team? The only.

One that matters is in the hands of their head coach. And your forecast for this season is a forecast of what impact can EMA have. He got two of his guys. He clearly influenced the acquisition of FVV and Dylan Brooks. He had a say in it. He made it happen.

Over James Harden. He squashed that James Harden shit.

Word. He sure did.

Nobody believed me on that. I was saying that for months. He squashed that.

Then he tried to take it back a little bit. He was like, No, it was just like we love him. But it was just- It.

Was an organization of it. Yeah. It's like, no, you.

Squashed it. So we're talking about a 10-win improvement over last season.

Seems like a lot.

But there's been some... It's an entirely different character of team.

But it might be, and it might be a year, take a year to get to the type. We watched EMA up close for a year there, and that dude is like, he holds everyone super accountable, doesn't put up with bullshit. He hates bad shots. You have to play defense. He doesn't want any whining, bitching, all that stuff. He will yank your ass from the court if you do one thing he doesn't like. And there's a bunch of guys on this team that are going to get yanked off the court.

And it didn't work for the first... The Celtics were under 500. They were under 500. What were they? Until they went on the run. They were.

Under, it was in. They were like, what, under 24.

And 25? It's one of my favorite things about EMA. The guy, people come back to the bench and he's like, What the fuck are you doing? And I can't wait to see him do it to this team. I mean, granted last year's team would have had a much harder time with this when you think about Jalen Green and then Kevin Porter Jr. Oh, my God. I don't think VanVleet and Dylan Brooks add 10 wins to your team.

This is an EMA bet. That's the argument for me.

It's too many wins because I think my fear with this team is they'll head to the place that they're going to get to. But I think the first 40 games are going to be tough. And there's also multiple teams on this team because there's a couple of versions of five guys that I like.

There's a talent level here where you go, Okay, Jaylen, we still have hope for Jabari. I liked more towards the end of the year when he was initiating more of his own stuff. But you could just tell with Jabari, it sucked for him because he's got this backcourt that thinks they have to have the ball in their hands every single time. And look, Zach Lowe even did this thing on Jaylen Green. But it felt a bit like the message of, Can you please be this guy that Zach Lowe is hitting at in some of these? Because there's some numbers that are really good that are baked in there, and then there's some horrifying ones where it's like, After pick and roll, this is the number of times that it led to an assist there because you can just see it was a take turns team. And it feels like with Vanvleet, because he's so good on and off the ball that they were like, Hey, this will force our guys. But this isn't about, Jaley Green can score 30 a game if he wants to, but that's not what this is. It's about him figuring out how to play with some other really talented guys because there's like five or six young dudes on this team that I actually like.

But usually this team is.

What- I love their draft. I love Whitmore. I think he could.

Be- What's your favorite asset on this team, Huston?

It's Jabari for me.

It's Jabari.

For me as well. Well, because of the growth that he showed us at the end of last season.

I might have Shingoon second. Yeah, I would like him. The fact that he grew was just astounding to me. He's like a giant guy now.

He's probably the most fun. I mean, look, Jalen Green has some possessions, where you're like... It's funny because-.

I think I'd have him third.

I think I was back home and they were playing Boston. I was like, Yeah, I know he puts up some numbers, but he's like a little shit. Jaylen Green looked like fucking Jordan in his second year. I mean, he was absurd. I hope it works out for him, but I mean, that's the thing. If you're a Rockets fan, you need to see some... It's not just a numbers thing with him because a lot of guys just have bigger numbers.

Well, don't you feel like we have to know after this season in some way with him? It's year three. This is a team that's going to be a little more professional. Jabari definitely took a step up. You can see it in Summer League. Because then.

The team, if it doesn't change the game in League, then you know the team is like, Hey, I think we're going to pivot how we initiate some of our offense stuff. And then you're like, Wait, so I'm not the chosen one anymore?

Is there anything funnier than veteran leader, Dylan Brooks?

Other than- Well, the China jokes are just apparently people wanted him.

You go under house?

I hate it because 31 is under, so I'm going to do under. Okay.

I really want to do under. This is a pretty easy under for me.

I really wanted to do over.

The West is too good. 32 wins is a lot.

It is too good.

But we.

Talked about a bunch of teams with good coaches, and this team has a really good coach. And then there are some teams we've talked about so.

Far where I didn't say the best things, but- I'm telling you it's going to be Rocky for the fifth game.

They're not going to be psyched about it in the beginning.

Yeah, he is going to be.

Really hard on them. Okay, I.

Like that. This is going to be the movie where the substitute superintendent comes in and is just super mean everyone in the school for the first.

Half of the movie. First practice, no ball.

Last team, San Antonio.

Just as an aside, I went to one travel team and my dad was like, What did you guys do? He's like, Oh, they didn't let us use a ball. He's like, You're not on this team anymore. He yanked you? He yanked me. He always thought that was the worst thing.

Just because- First practice is just be like, Let's scrimage. I want to see how you.

Guys were basketball. Yeah, right. That'll be the best way to tell who sucks and who doesn't. That's always a good metric. Let's have no ball and see what your closeouts are like in the corner for an hour.

San Antonio 28 and a half. Last year, 22 and 60. They added a guy by the name of Victor Wamedyama.

Do it.

Well, so for them to hit this.

Over- He isn't. You're not.

Going to, are you? For them to hit this over, he's got to play 70 games, right?

The all time we don't have to do anything, team. I don't see how he plays 70 games.

That's the problem. If you gave me 70 games of him, I could talk myself into 29 and 41 in those 70 games because he's so good. But I don't think they see the season this way. I think that's why they didn't go after Austin Reeves. I think that's why they did some We'll take your bad contract trades. And I think this was a throwaway season for them. Even though everyone says the draft is not that good this next draft, right, Rasell?

Yeah. These next two are supposedly... There's a couple of Ignite guys. There's a guy from Perth. There's not. But this shit changes really quick. I always think it's funny when front offices are like, Oh, the draft in 19 months sucks. It's like, we're all going to be in Chicago, and you're going to be telling me how great it is, one.

Through six. There's always somebody that pops up. Yeah.

I mean, it's 18-year-olds too. Like, hey, guess what? Some get better.

One of the things I don't like about this over under is you have to hit 29. I can't see any scenario where they win like 35. So now you're giving me this five-win window house. But then you give me all the upside of under the 28 and a half, where if Wmby gets hurt for two weeks and all of a sudden they go on a losing streak or they just yank them or they rest on whatever they have to do. It's a regretful under to me. But I did stare at it for a while, especially because Vasell didn't really play last year. I think he played 30, 35 games. So getting him for a full year with Wmby, I don't know, it seems like you're not-.

It's easy under for me. I think.

They're going to- It makes you sad, though. I feel.

Sadness in your face. No, they're building. If you look at the talent of San Antonio and put it side by side to Houston, Houston was a much bigger challenge for me. I think that Houston situation, I hate going under on Houston, San Antonio is building. And it doesn't make sense for them to rush this kid, and they're not going to. They're smart. They'll take their time. They'll get the right players. They'll learn about what NBA player he's going to be and get the right pieces around that. Right, how to use them. Yeah. So they're not in a hurry.

He's going to be the most viral NBA player we've had since we've had this whole infrastructure. I think that's the only thing that's guaranteed. We thought it might happen with Zion and Zion had some injuries and some stuff and it didn't happen with him. But just from the little stuff we've seen in the preseason, there's never been anything like this. My son is the most excited about him as he's been about any basketball player since he got on social media. And I just think he's going to be a thing over and over again. A really fun wrinkle. It's one of those if he's on TV, I'm probably going to watch. If it's like our fourth quarter and it's close. I want to see what happens here. So you're under, Rosila?

I am. They're just not very deep either. Despite some of the picks, some of the later picks I haven't loved, and I just don't see why they'd be playing him, I just am always going to be scared of the big guys that don't move like big guys, and that's the beauty of him as a player. But I think it'd be weirder if he didn't get hurt one of his first three or four years.

Yeah, there's the injury potential with him, knock on wood, but.

It is- I'm under.

All right, here we go. Here's what we had. Denver, all of us were over 52 and a half. Minnesota, me and House were over 45 and a half. Rosilla was under. Oklahoma City, I'm over. Rosillo is over 45 and a half as well. House under. You'll regret that one, House. Utah, 35 and a half. I went over. Rosillo went under. House went over. Portland, 27 and a half, all of us under. Memphis, 45 and a half. I went under. You guys both went over. We had a lot of disagreements for these first 10.

Yeah, fuck you.

Dallas, 43 and a half. I went under. You guys went over. You'll regret that. New Orleans, 44 and a half. Me under, house under, Cillow over. Houston, 31 and a half, we're all under. And San Antonio, 28 and a half. We're all under. That is it for part one. So, Rudy, what was your favorite over under? Probably Rosillo's.

Blind love of the Pelicans.

Well, but you knew it was coming then. Yeah, of course. I mean, come on. And I'm with you. I want.

It to be right. I just don't think it would be it.

So sorry, dude. All right. This was produced by Steve Sarudy, Kyle Creighton. Stay tuned for part two and part three. We will be doing the other 20 teams. Thanks for listening. Must be 21 plus and President in select states, Fando is offering online sports wager in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800, gambler, or visit fando. Com/rg in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. You can call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5-33-42 in Arizona. Call 1-88-7-89-777 or visit ccp. Org/chat in Connecticut. 1-800, 9 with it in Indiana. 1-800-5-2-2-4-7-00 or visit KsGamblingHelp. Com in Kansas. 1-8-7-7-7-0 stop in Louisiana. Mdgamblinghelp. Org in Maryland. 1-800-gambling. Net in West Virginia or 1-800-5-2-2-4-700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelp. Linema. Org or call 800-3-2-7-50-50 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts, or call 1-8-7-7-8-hope and why, or text, Hope and why, in New York.