Part three of the NBA Overrunners extravaganza with Rosilloow and House. How are we still going? It's next. We're brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. If you missed part one and part two, we did the entire Western Conference plus Milwaukee's Division in the East. This is going to be part three, the Atlantic, as well as whatever the hell Miami's Division is called. And then we're going to give you our locks for the season of all the Overhanders that we did. Joe House here, Ryan Rosilew is here. One more time, Pearl Jet. All right, guys, Boston Celtics, 54 and a half. They're a plus 165 for the ones that are plus 380 for the title, plus 175 for the conference. They were 57 and 25 last year. This just instinctively feels like an over to me, but I don't trust myself because it's my favorite team. But I do think that the holiday white thing is going to be awesome. There's a lot of ways to talk about this team. What's the number one thing you're looking at, Rosillo?

Their guys play. I mean, other than Prazingus, their guys play. So that's why they feel like a safer over for one of the highest projected teams of any number you can find. So usually somebody wins a conference like mid to high 50s.

And considering- Like a 58, 59, 60 range.

I love the depth. I love the versatility. Prazingus scares a shit out of me. But even without him, I think they won a lot of games.

How else there was this moment, the first preseason game. They put Pazengas in the corner in the Al Horford spot. Taneem had the ball or somebody had him. They swung around and they threw it to him. He was open. But then somebody closed out on him. But he's 7'3 and he just shot a wide open three over the guy. I was like, Oh, I just think this is a nice spot for Perzingus. I have no idea if he can play healthy and they're going to post him up and he's going to have these incredible defensive guards. All he's going to have to do is protect the rim. I'm sure there's going to be a couple of teams that try to pound them and exploit him. What did you see from him last year that makes you think he could be the missing piece for a Boston Celtics title?

His versatility. He absolutely gets it going sometimes. And you can tell right away if he's in his rhythm. And he, surprisingly, would go down and mix it up a little bit. Now, defensively, he can't be under the basket. If he's under the basket, it's a bucket. He's a guaranteed bucket against any guy.

Who was the guy who coached him.

Last year? Vusovitch? Vusovitch absolutely annihilated him.

Yeah, that Bulls game.

They just parked him down below there and then let Vusovitch put him in the torture chamber, and he did it. The biggest question, Mark, to me isn't the fit of Poizingas because I think it'll work great. I'll knock on wood for it. He should be not in harm's way with the construction of this team in that roster. The question to me with the Celtics and the only hesitation reservation I have, what's the defensive identity? You lost the two stallworks, the real plus Grant Williams. I know Grant Williams and Joe Madd couldn't get on the same page. They couldn't figure out the right role for Williams. But those are tough guys, tough attitudes. They got out to the extended to the perimeter. They had the commitment to do that. What's the defensive identity of this team?

Well, Drew is a better defender than Smart is.

Yeah, and it's not even close.

No argument. No argument with him.

And.

White is better than Smart, I think, too.

Would you say those are the two best defensive perimeter guards in the league?

Carusso. And Carusso. Yeah, I think Carusso might be better. You could argue he might be better than both of them.

Yeah, but they're in the discussion. Yeah.

Some people look at White as just being too small. Miami was looking to attack him, and sometimes it looked like it was like, Oh, wait, White's just overmatched at this level when it matters. But I think the most basic thing you're asking for from your perimeter guys is just don't screw it up by not knowing what we're doing. White is definitely smart with that. Look, the Rob Williams part of it, it's a luxury. But I'm telling you every time, every few weeks he would land and you'd go, Oh, he's hurt hurt? No, he's not hurt. Wait, he's hurt. He's playing. I can't tell if he's hurt or not. I'm just telling Portland fans, get used to it because it's constant. And if your team is trying to win a championship and you're banking on him being healthy all the time-.

What would you compare him to for a purchase in Manhattan Beach, like a golf cart that keeps breaking down? It seems like an awesome idea to have a golf cart.

I think it is a lot like the golf cart, but not because it's breaking down. It's like, Well, hey, I don't drive drunk, but it's a golf cart. Right? So you're like, I'm not really doing anything wrong. It's just a golf cart. How fast.

Can I go? Probably it's the golf cart. I think their defensive identity is the Drew, Derrick White, and Tatum, who I think is going to play really hard this year because I think he's excited that this is his team. I think he is an MVP candidate. I'm not going to pick it, but I think this team is going to really give a shit in the regular season. And I think there's going to be an attitude and identity with them because they have a bunch of guys who play hard.

After what happened last year, losing to Miami, there's no reason who are they to think that they can just mail it in this year and then see what happens? They should be furious.

About what happened. That's a bunch of bench guys that I think are going to give a shit. Like, Pritchard, who they paid. But I think Pritchard is... I don't think it's going to happen, but you don't think Pritchard is as the sixth man of the year conversation with people in a circle? I think I could do it. Twenty-five minutes a game. I'm going to be a top three-point shooter. Pritchard is an irrational confidence guy. Say. I like Perset. I think Jordan Walsh is going to be a fan favorite. I think their bench is going to come in and swing some home games. I don't trust it on the road as much, but the top six is great. Horford should not play more than 1,200 minutes max. I would just keep him in the garage.

With one of.

Those car.

Covers on. I can't believe what they got from him last year. But you could even see then him being so good all last year. I don't know if that's why he was on teams at the end, but that was a big win. He couldn't.

Move in the playoffs or he couldn't move against Miami.

He couldn't.

Make any shots. Rosillo, if they're wrong about Joe Missoula, is that the biggest mistake anyone made this summer? Because if they're wrong about him, they basically went all in and they blamed. They said it was everybody else's fault. And if we just get this guy-.

Well, did they say that? They basically said that. I don't know. Does that mean they believe it? I just don't know how you can do that job the first year and not be making mistakes.

All.

The time.

Especially with barely any assistance.

Right. That's the point.

How about Jeff Van Gundy in.

The mix? Well, this.

Is a hard guy.

Look at what they did assistant coach-wise. This is one of the bits of research I did was.

Like.

Just be honest. Yeah. But I wanted to see how they built this up because I'm genuinely curious about forecasting the self-esteem. It was this Jeff Van Gundy thing, which was funny, senior advisor. But they brought in Sam Cassell.

Good. And Charles Lee, who everybody loves.

Charles Lee, really good. The first assistant under Coach Bud on the 21 winning Bucks team. And then, Emile Jefferson, Tatum's guy from Duke, Phil Presley. That's doing it right. It wasn't their fault that E-May had the issue that he had.

And they get rid of Smart and they get rid of Grant, who were the two guys that he clashed with last year. So they have cleared the fucking runway for this guy. They plowed all the snow off it. They changed the plane tires and they gave this guy a nice plane. And we're going to find out if he's a good coach or not because I have no idea if he is or not. I don't. And Rosillo doesn't either.

I will tell you that there are people that I trust that really do like him. But there were a few too many moments late in the season.

Where.

I don't really love being super critical of the coaches because I feel like there's all this stuff going on that we don't know about. But when the coach makes it easy to second-guess them with some of the stuff, and you're like, What the fuck is going on? But I'm a big blame the player, guys. They were pathetic against Miami to close those first two games. And then in game three, you're going, Where's the Pride? And then the Pride actually.

Shows up later. Game two is the inexcusable one to me when Butler was just punking them. And then everybody got mad at Grant Williams after. Listen, they're out of excuses. This is a seven-year run now, and they have, if not the most talented team, one of the most talented teams. Tatum is 26. This is right at the time of his career and of a normal NBA Stars career where you're supposed to peak 26, 27, 20, 29. Jalen Brown got paid. Poor Zingus is in the single best basketball situation he's ever been in. And they have stuff to trade, too. They have picks that they can still move around. And if they want to get slightly better, they will. They're spending a stupendous amount of money on this team. This team is like a Golden State Warriors level expenditure, but it's hard not to be super pumped. I'll just tell you this. You guys know this because we've certainly all talked about enough. But I couldn't watch that team play offense in the playoffs anymore. The team that they had, I just couldn't do it. They had to change something. I didn't know they would be as aggressive as they were, but I'm glad they were.

I think they had to be that way. You can't be like, No, we're good every year. Because as we laid out last spring, the NBA, you can't just assume it's going to keep going. You got to get aggressive. Unfortunately, the Philadelphia 76ers can't say the same. And their over-under is 47 and a half, and it's dropped two wins. And I still like the under. This is a mess. How can they save the season? I hope they don't do this. But if this hard and thing is unfixable, is there a scenario where they just move on from Darryl to try to save it? Because I feel like that scenario exists.

How does that help them?

I don't know. What else do you do? You have this imbued window.

Well, if they reached the conclusion that by getting rid of Darryl, then Harden will stay and that he will.

Be happy. And be engaged for.

A year? Well, they would have to dangle the extension that he thought he was getting. They'd have to put that.

Back on the table. If they do that, they should sell the team.

Well, I just have a hard time believing that the ownership is going, Darryl, we should pay him. He's like, Sorry. Okay.

Good.

Point. Cosmetically, I guess, but that would then mean you would have to pay him. And I wouldn't want to pay him. I would go back. I would have that right side drive in game seven in Boston and see Harden go, I don't want to be here. And I'd go, This is why we're not paying him.

You know what's funny? Roselle is going to miss Harden. When it's all over and Harden is retired, Roselle is like, You know what? It was really fun.

To just- I'm not.

Just complain about that.

I'm not. Because a lot of it is the way it was officialiated. And I look back, I regret those hours. I regret all the hours that I put in.

Do you think Joe Ellambid is saying the same thing? When does he say, Get me out of here?

The only thing that matters from Philadelphia is just divining Joe Ellambid's intentions and trying to figure out the best possible path to keeping him.

Yeah, because we can think Darryl is stubborn, and I give him a lot of credit. You moved off of Ben Simmons who doesn't even play for Harden. You had a chance. There was a stretch last year. We were like, Hey, look, they're in the conversation if something were to go their way. I think we all agree as we touched on earlier and Bid gets this collective pass about not being that successful in the playoffs where other guys with his profile would start really getting beat up on the talk shows. It doesn't mean like, Hey, guys, let's remind ourselves this year to shoot in and beat him more because I like them. You know what I mean? I haven't really wanted to do that. But there's some real proof that some of the stuff I would say about Westbrook not getting out of the first round. I could apply it the same way to Embiid. And the idea, too, that if you have an old traditional center initiating your offense in crunch time playoff possessions, does the game even work that.

Way anymore? Especially over the course of two weeks when you just get to watch-.

Every.

Single thing. -400 minutes of it or.

Whatever it is. And he's a little late on the doubles. There's still some stuff with him where I'm like, Man, how can you not feel some of this pressure and all these different things happening? Look, as much as we're sifting through the Embiid part of this, and Darryl will be like, My price is my price. And and all this different stuff, there may be a play here where with Simmons, it wasn't dire enough where it could be dire enough that there may be a move initiated based exactly how I said on what you said about making sure Embiid realizes we're on his side in this more so than hanging out for every last asset.

It would be interesting if Embiid just came out and was like, I'm fucking tired of this. I really want to win a title, and they've.

Got to fix this. I wonder how that would be because part of it you would go, yeah.

But I mean, direct it toward Harden and be like, you know what, man? You opted in. We were really good last year, and the East is worse. Let's try to win a title together. Stop bitching about all this other stuff. We're right here. We should have beat in Boston last year.

You have to play better. You opted in.

You.

Opted in, dude. You want to make this money.

They got rid of the coach that you wanted them to get rid of. They brought in nick Nurse who won a title for five years ago.

I think that's the very same conversation you guys are walking through. It could be the other way, like him going to management and saying, do what it takes to keep James. I like James. James made me the mother fucking MVP of the League. We got very far.

Into the- A positive feeling. We've got to- He feels this way, though.

What? I don't think he feels this way, though. I don't think he.

Feels this way. This is the question. This is what I'm saying. You got to divine his intentions. What does he want?

Did you watch Game Six and Game Seven in the.

Boston series? He was hurt. He's going to say to everybody. James Harden was? No, indeed. I'm saying did you see.

The James.

Harden part? But James Harden carried them into to game six and Game Seven. They weren't in that- He had two good games. There was no competition otherwise without.

James Harden carrying them to this one.

Passes to James Harden truth. I'm trying to tell you what the other side of this might look like, but it's all to Embid. It's Joela and Bid's call. If he went to Maury and said, get it done with James Harden and let's go to war. I mean, nick Nurse, I think, could figure out a way to make this work.

I have a lot of respect for Nurse. Have you seen some of this stuff coming from there where it's veiled, Doc shots. It's like a lot more movement this year. It's going to be nice to be in an offense where the ball moves around.

It's just a little- I'm looking forward.

To Harden off the ball cutting.

It was Doc holding him back.

Yeah. No, Harden, I mean, he moves a lot, Genobally-like, or he really moves with that ball.

I just love when they do the same shit with LeBron. Now, he's going to get out, push the tempo.

Yeah, get out.

I'm just going to run way more than that. Right. He's way more athletes. Actually, he's one of the slower paced guys because he's so good at dissecting what happens. So you can talk about whatever you want to do. The guy's going to default back to what he's comfortable with. That's what basketball is.

Especially as you get older.

Philly.

Owns their own first round pick this year, but they can't really trade it because they have a protected pick to OKC in 25 and then another protected pick to Brooklyn in 27. They have their own first and 29 and 30. They don't really have a lot of avenues to improve this team. I still feel like they should have gone after Dame because as I said, when it was happening, I just thought they had a two or three-year window here with them, and I think the window might have.

Slammed shut. So you would have done Maxi?

I would have. I would have tried to trade Maxi to a third team, tried to get those picks and just tried to figure out some package to try to get Dame with and put him within the and see if I have a better chance. But I think they're thinking we can turn Harden into more stuff, keep maxi. I just don't think they're going to be able to turn Harden into more stuff. I don't think there's a deal for him.

I wonder how much the Simmons thing motivates Maury to go like, Well, look, everybody, remember? Yeah. Other GMs would have given in. Other GMs would say, Hey, we just need to turn the page on this thing. He waited and waited and waited.

But the difference is Harden is one of the great saboteurs we've ever had in any sport. Like, Ben Simmons just went to London and went to clubs and just disappeared. He checked out. And just like, Clutch will save me on this. He's not disappearing. Harden is like, I'm going to be here and you guys are all going to be fucking miserable. And every three days I'm going to do something because he knows how to do this.

But it's different, though, because he still is hoping for the contract. So unless he thinks, that's why I just can't wait to see what's going to happen. Is he going to actually sabotage the situation to get out then while also demanding a new deal worth $180 million.

He also doesn't seem to understand that the other 29 teams in the League have watched the behavior. So it's like if you have some neighbor, and they had a dog and you saw the dog attack multiple neighbors, and the neighbor came to you. He was like, Do you want to adopt my dog? Really nice looking German Shepherd. I'm like, No.

Are you talking about Biden's dog? Yeah. I know we don't talk politics, but- Commander?

Yeah, Biden comes to you. It was like, Hey, commander, get.

To home. Joe, can we talk about your dog?

He bit at least 11 Secret Service agents. But yeah, at some point, the behavior is the behavior. And the other team see this like, Well, we trade for this guy. What if he becomes unhappy in three months?

No, you're right. But I think when you're really this special and you've been this special, it's something for this long, and it's actually gone your way so many times.

People just talk themselves into it.

Yeah. I also think, look, there's a sense around the league, too, that the agents that he's working with, if you had a clutch, if you had one of the real foundational agents, then maybe- Who used their power. This is the part of the agent game that most of us overlook or don't understand. Is that like, when there's a guy who's really valuable to a team, that opens up doors for the agent to have power with that team, okay? And everyone looked at Lamar Jackson's deal and said, Oh, remember all of you that said he needed an agent? And it's like, Well, he still didn't really get what he wanted. He wanted to be traded. And if you wanted to be traded, you have to have something that your agent can barter, meaning other clients or hate down the road, because as you know, and I know you hate it, and we argue about it all the time, there are simply just transactions done where the team does the agent a favor. And it probably doesn't come back to pay them back as much as they would hope, but they still keep that line of communication open.

So if you're trying to manipulate this a third time and not have the agent that maybe has the most intense client list, it's an even harder thing to pull off here.

While on top of it- That's a really good point.

-not being as desired as he was in the past.

They started 9-9 last year, House went 45 and 19, won 54 games. They were basically the team with the best record in the League for the last three-fourths of the season, hard to miss 24 games. Maximus, 22 and beat, missed 16.

That's a ton of wins from how many games.

Yeah. So it's dropped enough that I'm not positive it's a lock for me. It was a lock at 49 and a half because I was like, They're not winning 50 games. That's ludicrous. But the 47 and a half in a bad conference. It's still a hard under for me. You guys are under?

It's a lot like my Clipper's Pick, where I'm not going to be wrong on the over.

Right.

Knowing what could potentially happen here.

And there's what, a 4:1 chance and B gets mad in January. And it's like, You know what? We've run our course here.

Yeah. But if Darryl is still the GM, that doesn't mean anything. You're not just going to trade him for nothing. I just think like, Oh, hey, we're going into it. We're not quite sure which way James Harden is leaning. Then how do you take the over?

Nicks, 45 and a half, and we're going to talk about them right after this break. Get ready to start the NFL week off right now. All customers can get a no sweat same game parlay for Thursday Night Football. Just place a three-leg same game parlay in this week's game between the Saints and the Jags, and you'll get bonus bets back if you don't win. You know what else you can do on Fandool, by the way? Jag Saint's fun game to bet on. But you know what's really fun? Nba Future Boost, which we've been doing basically for three parts now on the BS podcast. I mentioned how we have Celtics 50 plus, Lakers 45 plus, OKC 40 plus. They're going to boost. Go check their website. It's going to be boosted, I think, in the plus 250 range. You know what else you can do on Fandol, by the way, my friends? Profit boost on any NBA futures bet from Tuesday until tip. Do you understand what I'm saying here? Profit boost house. Outside of the boost, the customers can apply the profit boost to any other of their favorite future bets that they hear on the pod.

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Because they don't have enough to win the title. They're on the hold for can they get Yanis? Can they get Mitchell? What if Embiid becomes available? So it's just two parallel passive. We're a really good four or five seed, but we're probably not getting it at around two. But we're also asset maintaining all these dudes in case something bigger happens. That makes me a little nervous with the over under. But Rosillo, I'm going over 45 and a half. I think this is at least a 46-win team.

Yeah. It's part of the TIB's deal where at some point last year it felt like he was done. That was definitely had a lot of momentum. For two weeks. When you think about certain things you'll hear over the course of a season, it looked like his days were numbered. Not even the case. Jaylen Brunson was so far beyond. We knew he was good. This was absurd. What he did to the Cavs in the playoffs. You look at them and go, Okay, well, who's that number two that makes them good enough to feel like they're in that first tier of the East? They're just not. They're not. But they're one through eight. It's pretty good. I hate to bring them up again because I spent so much time on them, too much time on him last year. But I think the hope is that Barrett is something that's either tradable or is the defining number two, three guy with Julius.

I think some nice playoff stuff with him, though, that I think we both liked.

Yeah, but the shooting across the board was down dramatically. I mean, he was 40 % from three two years ago. He was 31 % with a 34 between that. And look, I brought it up constantly. I thought it was really weird, like the way they would sub them out. They were doing the little mellow like, Yeah, sure, you're playing in the fourth quarter, buddy, but you aren't. And they would get weird on the patterns there. For them to feel better about their situation, he needs to finally put it together at 23, which usually this means four seasons in this is who he is, or that he does enough that he's actually valuable enough for whatever that next move is. But good luck.

House, they started 10 and 13. They finished 37 and 22, which is a 50-win pace and everybody's back. Why aren't we going over with this team?

I think that we are. Okay. I love the 17 and 8 that they went with Josh Hart. There's a force multiplier effect with this team in terms of when Hart arrived, it delivered an identity to the team. And then this DiVincenzo edition, which is like, he feels like, Yeah, great. But no, that's another villain over guy. And there's a whole thing going on, like a whole subtext of this rallying. The town loves this team, and they got to figure out what happens with Julius Randle, but they have tons of flexibility in terms of picks and talent to land. If Toronto decides to be a seller, I expect that nick to be all in on this. So they're a super over for me this year.

Randall's last five years, 22, 10, and 4, 1-2 team all NBA, 1-3 team all NBA, and he only missed 33 games. There's a case he's the most underrated guy in the league. Nobody's like, You know how I fucking love Julius Randall.

I fell out of love with him in the Miami series.

Yeah, I know. But then it turned out he was playing on a bad enough ankle that they had surgery for it.

You're right. Because whenever we do the All-NBA stuff, I'm like, Wait, I think I have to vote him. He's doing better than anything. Yeah, I have to vote him in. And then you're right, he plays all the time. Look, there was that year where he was going to be eligible for contract extension, and he took the money instead of waiting it out another year. But it was still such a huge number that you're like, Okay, it makes sense. And then when he did it, it was like, Oh, it's good that he did it because he had taken a dip down. He's just always a strange player. He's just always going to be a strange like, Wow, that guy's numbers are way better than I think they are. But in a big game, am I actually afraid of Julius Randall? And the answer is probably no.

You had Shamet face that you created? Yeah. Randall face is like a different face. He's one of those guys who'd almost be better playing with a hockey mask, so we wouldn't see. He's got expressions that just make you think things are going badly or he's unhappy, but it's just his face.

It's a great call because Shamit Face has a face that you'd be willing to overlook. You're like, Well, that guy can't be good.

I'm sorry. You have to win me over.

Because I.

Don't trust your face.

Randall Face just shares too much. Because when it's not going right and he's in the building, that got really weird at points last year where it felt like the city and the crowd was turning on him. And look, I know that he was hurt, but I would say that there are enough moments where he could do stuff in that Miami series as like, okay, so you're hurt when all the bad things are happening, but you're healthy enough when all the good things are happening there.

Maybe he grows a giant beard, like a hardened beard. They have a lot of first round picks. They have all their own picks. Dallas is protected first, top 10. Detroit is protected first, top 18, top 13, top 11, top nine, those are the protections. Washington's first, top 12 next year, I think you'll be keeping that one house. We're keeping that one. Top 10 and 25, top 8 and 26. And then they have Milwaukee's first, top four protected. So they can mobilize pretty fast with some packages and some things.

It'd be funny if the Mitchell thing... Well, I don't think the Cavs would do that way, especially knowing with Mitchell, Mitchell would have to force the issue. So Mitchell would have to say, Hey, with a one and one left, I'm out of here, which is a little different than if you're just going to straight up be a free agent. And then I don't know how many times you're going to keep reading the Nicks or monitoring Carl-Anthony Towns. This has been going on for like five years.

I know. I don't even think it's true. They're run-back Kentucky people, and I think they-.

Well, yeah, but that was the thing is that supposedly all this is going to pay off. They've done a really good job with what they have to this point, but landing that big guy. They could have done the Mitchell trade. They didn't. I don't think they believed they had enough competition for it, so they thought they're going to maybe get their way. And look, they end up eliminating the guy. When going into that series last year, I was like, Come on, Cleveland is going to be better than New York. And it was humiliating the way they beat Cleveland, I thought.

You know who I think is going to have a huge year? Fornie. No, I didn't. I just want to wake up or something. Brooklyn Nets, 37 and a half. They are plus 152 for the playoffs. I personally think they blew it, not going for Dame Laird. So here's where it gets tough, because I don't like this team and they're making Ben Simmons the point forward. And Spencer Dinwood has had some thoughts about this already. He's positive about it. He had the car keys last year, and now Ben is going to have the car keys. So he's going to have to learn to adjust off the ball.

And we had workout videos posted again.

Yeah, there's been some workout videos. They don't have their first round pick this year. It goes to Houston. So they don't have really any incentive to be bad. Butyour ass, I don't think they're very good. You're talking Dynwitty, Simmons, Miles Bridges, Cam Johnston, nick Claxton, Finney Smith in there, O'Neal, they're fine. It's a perfectly service. Lonnie Walker is in there now. Perfectly serviceable team. Is it okay if I just never believe in Ben Simmons again? Yeah, it was funny. I just want to believe in my Ben Simmons, but I'm not going to believe in the other.

Ben Simmons. Because I was thinking about clean slate program. Could we just each have three guys? We go, We have to. We have to be clean slate. We can't bring up any of the shit anymore.

So Randall would be a good one for you for clean slate program?

No, because when I did that deep dive on him, where I just watched him for an entire Miami game because I was having a hard time with that series. I'm just going to watch him. And boy, did I end up not liking him after a couple of those games. But if I just said Ben Simmons, Clean Slate Program, I can't bring up anything in the past. I have to go in with a totally like- Open mind. I have to be like an NBA writer that has a profile on him where I'm like, This guy gets it right around the corner.

Right.

Could you do it? Could you do it with Russell Westbrook? I think Westbrook's like, You can't do it anymore. Harden, I would not allow that content to be taken from me. Could you do a clean slate deal with Ben Simmons starting now? I challenge you.

I don't know how he looks athletically yet because the guy that played for the Sixers until the fateful Atlanta series was just athleticly a specimen who I think was one of the best athletes in the league and was an awesome defensive player. And is that guy still exist? So if you're telling me that guy's back and mentally there's some stuff going on, but at least the athlete part is back, I could talk myself into it. I just don't know. When somebody doesn't play for how many years was that? Two and a half?

Well, yeah, I mean, I.

Think- You're going spring of 2021, throw away the 22, 23, he was a zombie. So it's.

Been- It's literally an all time. I don't know.

But we might know. Deep down, we all might know.

The big question is, does he like to play professional basketball?

I'm really glad you asked that. The answer has been probably not for a while here.

It doesn't seem like it. No. But what if he decides that he does?

He's young. He's really good at saying all the right things when basketball isn't scheduled. Right. Like, August, great quotes.

Look, if it were just his health, that'd be one thing. I think he is mentally shot.

Yeah. No coming back. He's a kid, though.

Well, that determines the over-under because if you don't think he's going to be good for them this year, I don't see how they hit the over. I don't think- He was still- -they're 35 and 47 team.

Remember, I think it was a Boston game where I hit a million assists in the first half, and they actually took him out of the rotation to close the game because it was getting a little tighterYeah. And he was starting to revert to, I don't really want to make decisions here with the ball. And they ended up yanking him from him. Now if that's because of his back, okay, that's what he tells us all the time, and that he's back, he's ready to go. I think the biggest thing with Brooklyn here is they built up so much equity despite the weird turnover they had with Kyrie. They were 11-12 games over 500. They make that trade. They basically play like three to four games under 500 with this group for the rest of the way. For like 25 games, yeah. But they still held on to a sixth seed. So I think the overplay- That's that mind trip. Yeah. So I'm going under.

Yeah. I came to the same conclusion because that 1KD-Kyree stretch skewed their record, and I think they're a 35-win team.

We kept thinking they were going to fall apart, but their record was already built in to protect against it. And then everybody else around that seating was a game or two or below 500.

I really like McAl Bridges, but if he's your number one guy and the last guy in the Jumbotron video as you're introducing the starters, the guy who's got the talcom powder, he's like, blows it out and then fireworks go off. I'm not that excited about my team. And again, I really like McAlbriages. I love him. I think he's great. But to me, that's 35 wins.

That's your guy. He's showing the ceiling for him is even further than what we thought it could be. It's awesome.

I would put him above Jaylen Brown. But if Jaylen Brown was the best guy in this Brooklyn Nets team, I would think they're going to win 34 games. So there you go. How else you're in on.

The other as well? Yeah, I'm in on the other.

I feel bad.

I can't invest in Dinshiti.

Wow. Well, that's some Washed and Bad Blood.

That's right. You're right about that.

This would have been a fun Dame team. I like how it worked out. It's more fun to have my mom Milwaukee, but it would have been fun if they just said, Fuck it, and went after him. Toronto, 36 and a half. They have a new coach.

New.

Attitude. They replaced Vanvleet with Dennis Schrooter. Okay. They're against it?

Okay.

They brought in Grady Dick. They owe a top six protected first to San Antonio. So the question is, how good do you want to be? Does that mean they'll tank? My guess is they're probably going to try to be good. I like the team. They're 41 and 41 last year. I don't understand why it's five wins worse when really the only thing that changed was they turned VanVleet into Schrooter. And again, I like Schrooter. I thought he was good on the Lakers last year. Their chemistry was clearly off. They clearly need a coach change. Racillo, it's an over for me. And I have them in the playoffs, I think.

I'm going under.

Okay, let's hear it.

I do think VanVleet was that important. Although VanVleet is a weird player where there's all these other baked in advanced stats to tell you was actually terrible.

Well, the problem is there was like, Man, they had such bad luck in the clutch last year. I was like, Maybe they had bad luck because Fred Vanvleet was deciding every game for them, playing against Steph Curry and Nicole Okidge.

I also think there was some massive three-point percentage number against them that was absurd. So that would speak to your over call and all this.

But I.

Think Vanvleet was just really, really steady for him. And Schroeder, I've had about seven different relationships with.

Right. We've never been better, me and Dennis. We broke up. He moved out. He's back in. We're doing great. A lot.

Of the young guys that I've liked on this team, I need to be better. It's like a collective Evan Mobley team where there's a couple of dudes like OG and an Ovie is going into the Hall of Fame, obviously, for who we won't be traded for. I think we all like him. But some of the stuff you'd hear about who he wasn't offered for you're like, Wait, is there another one that I'm not aware of?

Well, you have a lot of Barnstock.

I do.

But- And he wasn't good last year.

That's what we thought. Yeah. I'm also willing to admit, I got to see some of the stuff like, What do you go to that's really tough to defend? Not, Hey, do you get 15 shots a game? Do you have something that's really tough? And I think he and Moby, it'd be nice if we saw something this year.

What do you.

Got, House? I mentioned in part one about how I'm a petty better, and I really don't forgive easily when the team burns me. This team underperformed by such a significant amount last year, and I'm sick of their shit, to be honest with you. Having said all that, I'm on the over because I think that they are a 37-win team with the talent. Well, the problem is that they had an identity, and it was a successful identity. And they could be a 45 or 46-Win team in the east if they maintain that identity. For whatever reason, they decided, it seems as a group, to not continue to bang the hell out of the offensive boards, to push their perimeter defense all the way out, to play relentlessly. They have this collection of guys, nobody that was taller than 6'10. And that was the game plan. And it really worked. They had 45 or 46 wins. They came in last year, forecasted around that slightly under it. I was like, Wait a minute. I love the way that this team plays. Nick Nurse has them cooking. They have a good identity. They're an inside, outside team. And collectively, for whatever reason, they're like, Fuck it.

This is too hard. I don't want to do this anymore. And they stopped playing the relentless defense that they had the previous season.

They got really surly. Like, Siakam was always pissed about stuff, it felt like. And then-.

Would you see the message quotes about, We were selfish last year. And he was basically, And that's what needs to change. It's like, Who are you talking about?

Every.

Basketball team is run by four people.

One of the best, preparation guys, adjustment guys, other basketball people rave about nick Nurse all the time. So I wanted to go over. There's no way they're that far off from 40 wins or whatever, but I just don't know why in the first year, a new guy coming in, this could be the part of the demise for the Raptors where it's like they had these pieces that were left over. Lowry is gone, Van Blee is gone, maybe it's Yackom. And these younger players that I've all liked, I'll throw Precious in the mix, too.

Eventually, I asked myself, How come you still like this guy so fucking much?

I think Schrooter could be good on this team. I really like the fit, and I wouldn't like him on most teams, I don't think. But even in the world championships, they built that whole Germany team around him and Frans, and he was cooking. I thought in the playoff series, I thought he really bothered the Warriors. I thought he did a nice job on Curry.

He played his ass off. You're right.

I thought he did a really nice job on Jamal. Jamal was awesome in the playoffs, but one of the key moments that happened in one of those Denver games was, didn't he get kicked out? He got into it with somebody, remember his goal, Stani. He got kicked out of one game. You could feel the difference with the Lakers. He was like a pit bull in those series. I just think he's a really smart old school foreign point guard.

So you're going to take him over?

I'm taking over. Oh, wow. Yeah, I have them in the playoffs. All right. I think they're going to be all right.

I have them over.

Grady Dick, excitement level. Is there a white guy resurgence right now? Pritchard gets a contract, GradyDick, teams won TJ McDonnell, Hero's got a chip on his shoulder. Heyward is expiring. Kevin Loe is back with Miami. Heyward is expiring. Are white guys back?

Not yet. Okay.

We're going to take a break and we're going to do the Southeast. Southeast, Miami has the highest over under 44 and a half. There were 44 and 38 last year. I got to say, this is an inexplicable over under to me. And I think there's a lot of disrespect to a Miami team that I know I'm Dr. Lumis in the Halloween franchise, just warning people about Michael Myers every year. But man, this team, so they lose Struess and Vincent and they don't get Dame and the natural instinct is to go, write them off. They're done. Well, they're fucked. I think they're fine. And I think Hero, I love every single quote I've read from him from the past two months. He's fucking pissed that he was in trade room all summer. I think he is the number one chip on the shoulder guy in the League right now for maybe not the talent of some of these other dudes. But I think he's approaching this like, I want to show everybody night after night that I can't believe Portland was like, Nah, that's not enough. Lowry is in a contract year. Jimmy Butler is about to hit his mid 30s.

And I think he considers himself now as one of the best guys in the League, which he should. But Hawks has coming in, Duncan Robinson, who they're able to resuscitate. People like Jovich. I think Rosilloow likes Jovich. They still have Bam. They still have Jimmy. They got Caleb Martin with some real C-legs under him now. I think this team is going to be pretty good. I think to me, this is like a mid to high 40s for me, and I didn't even really blink. What do you have, House?

Well, the win total is 44 and a half, and they won 44 last season, but their expected wins based on point differential was they had a negative point differential.

Because they won all those games in the clutch. But that's part of what makes them the heat. They're smarter than everybody else.

They have a top 10 defense every year. That's why. Because they have a top 10.

Defense every year. They have the best coach in the League.

I'm not so sure that a motivated hero is what this team wants or needs.

I'm talking regular season only. I understand. I'm just trying to win.

Regular- It's just hard for Hero to go, I can't believe all the disrespect. They made that run without you.

Yeah, but still.

Who.

Says no? Hero for Harden.

I would do it if I were Philly. But again, who are you asking here?

To me, if I'm trying to get Harden, if I'm Miami, that's Lowry for Harden. I'll throw in something else. Good luck. Like, Lowry and Robinson. No, but I'm not giving- Lowry and Robinson. I'm just not giving a para for-.

Here's what sucks for Miami. Is they spent all summer thinking this was going to happen, but although I don't think to the level of like, clearly, when the July conversation happens at Summer League where they're not even close. And on the initial conversation- By.

The way, it was late June. It wasn't even July where they think Dame is headed their way, probably starting around-.

The draft. After the draft.

June.

28 something. But there's a couple of different times in the timeline there where they're like, They met in Vegas. And then it was like, Wait, you're asking for Bam again? Because I always felt like, Hey, don't... There was a bunch of Miami stuff after the fact of like, Oh, well, they weren't serious. They were asking for Bam. We'd be like, Have you ever heard about a Darryl Maury trade rumor request? A lot of these guys, this is how they operate. They start there. Now, if Portland had its own motivation to not want to do it, we've already been over this a million times. But the backcourt situation for them, look, it's an over for me. They mailed it in last year and got to 44 wins, okay? So that's the number, and it's the division. And so you're like, Look, Butler is older. I think Lowry is close to a toast. I mean, he had a couple of nice playoff moments, but what are you really penciling in there? Because they did all this weighting. Again, I don't know at what point they realized they were probably out of it. They missed out on other options.

And then Struce is gone. Vincent is gone.

They can replace Struce with Robinson.

Struce was nice for him. I know he was.

But I mean, they can replace him.

Sure, but there's a reason why Struce is playing over him because Duncan felt like somebody that could be targeted, despite when he does have it going offensively. He had some really nice possessions for him last year. Look, it's an over for me, but I'm not going to beat myself over the head saying I have to put them as a tier one E's team with the other teams up there.

I love that chip on the shoulder, not just with Hero, but with this whole team where it was like, they didn't get Dame. Throw them in the fucking dumpster. And I think they thrive on that and they care about it. And I'm just not writing them off.

I'm not the single biggest factor for me is Bolster. We just took a two-month tour with that dude. We just watched him.

Do it right.

In our face for two months.

All right. So say they had gotten Dame. That means Milwaukee is the same. It means Boston is the same. Who would you pick to win the East?

What do they get? So if it's Lowry and Picks and they turn that into Dame?

No.

Hero.

I'm sorry, Hero and Picks.

Yeah, they do the deal that.

Everybody Miami- The problem is the deal wasn't perfect because they still needed to match the Dame number. And the part everybody forgets with Portland when they talk about what they got back, they wanted to get rid of Nerkidge. That was part of it. So his Dame plus Nerkidge was like, 68 % to eight million.

Well, it also made zero sense for Sharp, Simon, and Scoot to be closing a game with Hero. Right.

But I'm just saying in a vacuum, like Miami would have had to take Nerkidge back in the trade with Dame, which means they would have to do Hero and Lowry and Yovitch and all their pay.

Which they could have figured out a way to do. They could have figured it out. I'm just saying, if Miami has Dame and whatever pieces.

Around it- I probably would have-.

Still Pick me a walk here, Boston?

Yeah.

Me too. Yeah.

Because I think the stuff they would have had to give up, I'm not positive that would have cemented it. But who knows? We'll still hear from Miami this year because they still have their picks. They have that Lowry expiring, which they can get a whole bunch of things back. I think this is a possible Harden team. We'll see how it goes. Also, I'm not ruling out Donovan Mitchell for this team.

Interesting.

I'm just not-.

I would add to that. Once they missed out on Dame and then it was like this list of all these players Riley couldn't get, I felt like that was getting a little unfair. It's like, well.

Because- Riley got LeBron and Wade in the same summer. Riley pulled off Jimmy Butler, and I'm still trying to figure out how he got Jimmy Butler for Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside and a couple of picks. How the fuck did that even happen? Mitchell for a hero and a bunch of picks. If the Mitchell thing goes sideways. I still feel like it's sitting there. The Atlanta Hawks, 41 and a half plus 220 for the division, 49 to 1 to be the 1 seed.

That seems tough.

Minus 200 for the playoffs. They were 41 and 41 last year. Vegas is saying, We're only going to spot them a half game. House, what are your thoughts?

This is one of my favorite overs of the entire upcoming season. And all of it is because of the respect that I have for Quinn Snyder. We had a conversation earlier today. Why do we think that Quinn Snyder chose this situation rather than waiting and seeing what other opportunities came up.

His wife loved Atlanta. Loved it.

It's literally the answer, right? That's the answer.

It makes more sense than the other answers that would be basketball related, but.

Happy wife. Happy life. It's like when Kyle opens a bar in Poughkeepsie, same thing. She loved it there. Kyle, if you do that, I'm honestly going to kill you. Andyway, House.

Do I overestimate-.

The great thing about bar ownership is that when you can finally afford one, you're like, I shouldn't do this.

I'm too old. Wait, how later these nights?

You've learned. It's a bad investment.

The Z-tapes are even light the last couple of Sundays.

Speaking of bad investment, do we believe that Quinn Sny can make Murray and Trey Young work?

So you haven't committed to an over and under yet.

I said it the other day. It's one of my favorite overs on the entire board. And I love the idea of them potentially at those odds winning the division because something could go south with that Miami situation and Atlanta is well poised to fill in there. Getting rid of John Collins was additioned by subtraction.

Yeah, they had too many guys and they had to fix the minutes. What do you have, Rosillo?

I like the over here, and I feel good about it. I think they were a mess again last year. Look, I've covered all my Hawks thoughts.

But.

I think they should be good enough to get 42 wins in this conference. That's what it comes down to. I mean, hell, the playoffs seem to be different because Trey will have these moments where he's still going to scare you a little bit. Now, I think we've learned that whether it was the Boston series last year or New York. But there's some weird numbers you go through it like Trey and Murray on the floor together is like 1.6 points better than the opposition pro 100. And you're like, Hey, that's supposed to be a bigger number with those two guys. And then the way they would try to split them up, I kept watching all the different stuff. All I think is like, Hunter is going to be a little bit better, maybe a little bit more Jaylen Johnson, maybe a little more Sadik Bay, maybe not having Collins sit in the corner and missed shots. That ended up being a salary dump, man, after all the years of what they could possibly get for him. Legitimate salary dump. I think Quinn and the talent level, because I have liked the talent on the team, that should be 42 wins for the Atlanta Hawks?

So I think this is my single favorite over of all 30. I've wagered on it. I like them for the division and plus 220. I think they're going to be top four seed. And I just really like the spot for them because I think the regular.

Seasons- Boston, Milwaukee, Miami or Boston, Milwaukee, Philly?

I think Boston, Milwaukee, Cleveland.

Cleveland.

Atlanta 4.

Wow. So you'll have Atlanta, Nicks, Miami, and Philly.

Yeah.

Well, it makes sense on your over-unders if I go back and think about it.

I think they're this year's Sacramento, where I just think they're going to be a really good regular-season team. The Quinsteiner thing, even in the Boston series, you could feel it because Boston fucking killed them in the first two games. Those last three games were good games, and they tested Boston and they exposed some things that I think came back to Haunt the Celtics in the next couple of rounds. But getting rid of Collins who I like was important because they had too many guys and nobody was happy. The Kappella-Kongwo Combo, that's a real fucking center combo. Those guys play together. They're like 22 and 19 a game. I think they overwhelm Miami in that playing game. Hunter, we'll see. Maybe it's AJ Griffin in that wing spot. Maybe AJ Griffin is even a better bet. I still like the Bogdanovich as the third guard with these guys. And from Trey, this is like... He takes a lot of shit. I could see him having a huge year. I think this is going to be hard to play.

We already know he can put up massive stats, but it's going to.

Have to feel like- But can you knock over? I think the most they've ever won was 43. They had that run in the playoffs. I like this team, and the Quin standard thing is the number one reason for me because I just don't think they had good coaching. I don't think Lloyd pierce was a good coach. I don't think Nate McMillen was a good coach. I think Nate McMillen was better than Lloyd pierce who was terrible. But for the most part, this team just always looked like a.

Mess to me. Maybe. But I also know this team loved to go to the media telling everybody it was the coach's fault, too.

That's true. So from a Trey standpoint, this feels like a fork in the road for him in a lot of ways. This season, I know he's young. I know he's got years ahead of him. But you get to the point where you start developing bad habits as a player. And if you're just a good stats, mediocre team guy, you just end up that way. He's been in the league since 2018. So what are you? Can you make other guys better? Is it just everything has to be built around you? How do you measure success? I just think this team is going to rise to the occasion. I like their rebounding. I like Bay on this team, too.

So you think he figures out how to be the guy where it's not just the numbers, where it's like everybody's-.

Yeah, pick your spots. And that's where somebody like Quinn Snyder, I think, could really help them. The quiet- Sometimes it's not great for us if you take 31 shots. I know you had 40 tonight, but this and this didn't happen.

Maybe Patty Mills doing some veteran stewardship.

I'll tell you another thing for the chalkboard for the whiteboard for Atlanta. I wanted my big fan deal boost this year, which I've won the last two years. I wanted it to be Celtic's 50 plus wins, Lakers' 45 plus wins, and Atlanta 40 plus wins. And it's like the way it gets boosted would be around plus 250 when we end up doing it. And they asked if I could replace Atlanta with OKC because they said Atlanta was not a popular team with the betting public. Put that on your whiteboard, Atlanta. They're like, Put OKC in there. Okc is a little more lovable. People don't want to bet on Atlanta. That was an actual gambling take from Fandle.

Well, it's their book, so it's their number. So you can't blame them.

They just said Atlanta. People are like, Huh?

I don't even know it. Tiny juice on the over, minus 1.12 on the over.

All right, we're all going over in Atlanta. Yeah, that's definitely going to be a lock for me. Well, now it gets interesting. We have three teams left. You know what? Actually, let's do Charlotte first, and then we'll finish with Orlando, Washington.

I thought you said it gets interesting.

I'm going to get Charlotte out of the way. Charlotte's over under 31 and a half.

No, Ky Jones.

So Ky Jones is gone. Gone. And the over under.

Did not move. Has anyone ever requested a trade and then been cut?

About 30 for 30 about the Ky Jones Book Night draft? The 11th and 19th picks just 0 and 2.

I like Book Night. I knew Kai Jones. It was limited, but his journey over the last couple of months was fascinating. We'll leave it at that. The number didn't move.

I predict his social media presence to maybe be even a little more extensive than it's been. So starting five of this team looks fine. Lamelo, Rozere, Brandon Miller, PJ, Washton, and Williams. It's like, All right, that's solid on paper. The bench, it falls off a quiff. Hayward is probably their best bench guy. This was a violent under for me. And then it's been a sexy Analytics team. Pretty much everybody is saying over for this. So the over 31 and a half. I just don't personally see it. What do you think, House?

I'm on the over. And I think it's because last season, I'm treating as an aberration.

They're 27 and 55 and La Mello missed at least.

Half the season. I think that they're the team, a couple of years ago that... What did they win? 43 wins in 2021, '22, and then 38 wins.

Yeah, I forgot to mention the Bridges coming back. So you could say four of the five starters from the 43-win team from two years ago are back. But the conference was also worse two years ago.

Right. Because when you go, all right, LaMelo played 36, Hayward played 50.

Although, what are you really- Yeah, pencil that. Pencil to 50 in every year for Hayward.

That's true. Bridges plays zero. You're like, Wait. But if you go back to two years ago and they won 43, I thought that was one of the most impressive seasons anyone had in the League.

Yeah, you were saying that at the time. You were like, This team is the all-time overachieve. This is an unbelievable- This is an.

Unbelievable team. They're in all these games in the fourth quarter. That's why I just thought it was like, Of course, Jordan would be like, 'Oh, Brego, we got to move on. ' Do you realize what this guy has helped you do? And Lamelo playing 70 games means what? I mean, he has been statistically better than I thought he'd be. He's more fun. He's in a weird lane where he's like a rock star of a player because of the way he plays and the personality and the youth.

And the social media piece of it.

Lamelo Ball is a problem. #problem.

But clearly, there needs to be something else to his game to round out wins or losses here. He's avoided all this stuff. He's gotten all the good parts. Yeah. But I.

Think a lot of- There's some appalling playmaking at the end of the game. It's appalling.

I don't know. I imagine him being around for the full season. It's weird because for me, the first time I was like, Oh, my God, it's a 30. And then I started digging into it a little bit more. I was like, Am I actually going to say over for the Hornets and I'm not.

The Miles Bridges piece, too, where he's going to be playing again and he's going to go in every city and there's going to be a big story in the newspaper and it's going to be a sports radio thing. Players that can go either way with how it affects people.

So that's 50-50 to me because I.

Don't- On him?

I don't think anybody gives a shit about the Charlotte Hornets.

Well, that.

Might be true, too. They're not coming to town and there's a story about.

This guy. He hasn't played in two years, and he's going to be one of the most villainized guys in the League and how that affects them, I guess we'll see. Just talk about it from gambling purposes.

I understand. I bet it hard when it was at 30 and a half. It's at the book right now at 31 and a half. It's still an over for me. I think they.

Have seven. Why don't you tell me? I would have talked you.

Out of this. No, I think they have seven guys that can play. And 30 is such a low bar.

For them to hit this, Brandon Miller has got to be good immediately. So, Rosilloow, I defer to you.

Well-.

Because.

I think that's the way.

They hit it. Yeah. Right.

That's exactly. He's like, legit good. Even a little better than Keegan Murray last year in the Kings.

And I think he's going to be really good.

Well, so then maybe they hit it. But I don't know.

But by the way, Bridges played in '21-'22. He played 80 games, and he was awesome.

He was 20 points a game.

Yeah, 27 and four.

The season he missed was last season. He didn't miss two seasons.

Yeah, he's been 35 % from three for a year.

He's going to give me $40.

Million a year. All right, so you guys are going over?

I think I just switched it to over.

I can't believe it.

I just did it. I'm going under. I just can't live with myself otherwise. All right, now it gets fun. The Orlando Magic. Steve Saruddy in the house for this. He flew cross country just so we can talk to him about the Orlando Magic over under of 37 and a half. That's not the only reason he flew across country. We also wanted to see him. I wanted to feed him. Plus 900 for the division. Just mentioning that. Plus 172 for the playoffs. Last year, they're 34 and 48. And the house, it's only four more wins and they hit the over. What do you got?

I'm not just saying this because Rudy is sitting here. I like the over.

Okay.

I like this team. This is also one of these ones where their best player just was on a massive stage.

Both of them.

They're two best players. Sure. One's better than the other, though.

France?

France is better. Yeah, France is better. There's no argument, right?

Right now, but-.

I think Palo is going to be awesome.

He's going to be awesome.

France is better right now. Palo is 20 years old. Yeah, that's.

Part of the thesis for why there's a leap still for Palo. And he got that time. He was on.

That stage. Well, we found out in the world championships that him as a five is the destiny of Palo, but that's probably two, three years away with the muscle and stuff. Rosillo, what do you got for this? Thirty-seven and a half.

Because they're still so young, I was like, Wait, can you get 38, 39 wins out of this team? But you know what? I started thinking about it. If I'm that high on Palo, the second year guys that are special, that's when it happens. They played so many teams so tough and they still didn't really know what the rotation is. I think they may just collectively be like, Hey, we know we drafted a lot of you guys. Again, that's the Anthony Black, Sugs, Cole, Anthony, Markel, Fultz, who's getting the opportunity? I don't like the Howard pick at all, but Frons and Palo are that good. They just are. And so I was going to say under, but I'm going over.

I was leaning toward under, as I told Serudy before the podcast, but I have too many unders. And at 37 and a half, I need one more over.

If they were 30 wins, I go, Man, that's a pretty big leap. Think about all the times you're watching them late in the year. We're like, They've figured.

Something out here. You and I were talking during the year. We were saying like, Man, if there's one team that's better than their record, it's probably Orlando. They had big wins against good teams. They lost some last second games. It worries me with the guards because you.

Have- But they might just say, screw it, and be like, We're done pretending that this is an equal opportunity position thing.

This many years ago. I think that would be smart.

Sugs, Anthony. Anthony Black and Faults. And Faults is in a contract here. Faults is good. I actually like what I saw from Faults last year. I think Faults-.

So Rudy is the Faults is good guy, and he's been right about it for.

A long time. And Jonathan Isaac potentially coming back. I'm going to go over only because I think those two guys are going to play for six months and give a shit the whole time and be in games and have a couple of nice big wins. It just worries me. It looks a little too obvious.

I think we picked the over last year, didn't we?

We did. Yeah, we hit it.

We won the locks, I'm.

Pretty sure. We hit it.

We loved Orlando last year.

So this is a Palo, France bet. I also really like France for most improved because I think that.

Could-.

No, insulting that as a sorority.

Remember SGA won that year when he jumped to 27 points a game? And he was already good, but then he had that stat jump.

Right.

Could France have a stat jump?

Like that? I don't know. You'd have to be the only guy and have the ball every time.

His most improved odds, I think the only reason I liked it was because they were pretty high. Yeah, he's 30 to 1 for most improved. I could see it. All right, Serudy, what do you got?

They started 5 and 20 last year. That was.

Mostly- Five and 20?

Five and 20. And that was mostly because Foules was out. And they're like, Hey, Frans and Paula run the show, and they weren't really ready to do it. They finished 29 and 28. That's on pace to be the sixth seed, the.

Seventh seed. And the conference is worse.

I think that middle area is a little bit because that middle area is dense. There's a lot of teams that are the same. The Pacers are in there. Their best case scenario is maybe Brooklyn, Chicago, maybe Toronto. Two of those teams maybe just drop off and they get into the.

Play in. I mean, their number is higher than Toronto's number.

Yeah. The issue.

Is they still struggle to score. And they still don't... I mean, I've been saying this since 2010, it feels like they just don't have enough shooting. Maybe Jet Howard solves that. People didn't like that pick. I don't know. I'll wait to see what it's like. The number seems right. Thirty-seven and a half seems right around where they'd win. But every playing team last year had 40 wins.

Yeah.

I think it's more likely they win 40 games than if they win 33. I'm biased, but I would lean over.

There's a piece of it where I just want to root for it because I know I'm going to love this team as a League past team. It'll be a top five for me, and I don't want to be in the back of my head rooting for the under. But I believe in the Frans-Palau Combo just being a bitch to play over the course of six months. Because we're going to have that mid-season tournament in December and somebody weird is going to end up in there out of the eight. And it's going to be a team like this that just has two young players.

And I think the cool thing, too, is those guys are willing teammates. They've already gotten past the stuff that maybe frustrates me with other young guys where the only way they think they can contribute is by shooting.

I don't... I don't feel like I'm betraying Steve Kerr. He was so impressed by Palo and just thought the guy is going to be a beast. And he probably said that publicly, but I think that whole coaching staff was like, Jesus, holy mackerel. Like, what is this guy going to be? They all think he's going to be a five. I don't know how many years down the road it is, but when you think like he can't even legally drink yet, what's he going to look like down the road? The beating people off the dribble stuff last year from him was just breathtaking. We talked about it a lot. There's going to be a physicality of him as he gets bigger and as he puts on muscle. And then the France piece, I don't know how good that guy can be, but he would be on the shortlist of who could jump up and suddenly become an All-Star. The stuff he was doing, I know, is the World Championship, but the stuff he was doing was really high level. They were running everything through him.

The poised point is the thing. Yeah. And then that's what, Sarudy's observation about how that team had a winning record for a sustained run. That's because Franz Wagner has the poise.

They could run- They're going to rebound, too. The shooting is going to be the issue. To me, it's more likely somebody like Sugs is just all of a sudden better than he was last year, or Faults in a contract year, whatever it is. So we're all going over.

We're going over.

So, Rudy, you're too afraid to go over.

What could go wrong? I think the number is really right.

Okay. Well, the number is really right for our last team of the preview, the Wizards of Washington. Twenty-three and a half. Last year, they're 35 and 47. They are 13 to 1 to make the playoffs house. Here's the starting five, as far as I could tell. Tias Jones, who's just on eBay right now. Does anyone want to trade for a point guard who's been in some big games? Jordan Poole, who Kevin Garnett, unironically asked could he be used like James Harded on Houston? It was an actual podcast moment. Cory Kisbert, who has some nice shooting percentages. Kyle Kuzman just got paid in GAFFord. This team is awful, House. Why do you think they can go over?

Because this team is not any worse than the team that the Washington franchise put on the floor last season. Talent-wise, this team, I would argue-.

The 35-win last year team. That's right. But that team had poor Zyngus scoring 23 a game.

Well, and Beale.

Kuzma, they had 40 games of Beale last season.

So part of has this premise is Pool can replace a lot of the Beale stats.

He can replace all of them.

He'll certainly replace the field goal tubs.

Kuzma was the guy who got the touches at the end of the game, not Poor Zengas. And it was proper.

Winning recipe there.

He's a lot more the problem. The reason that I love this is because 23 and a half is so low. Your they have three guys that are professional guys that are auditioning for their next situation, Tias Jones, Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma. They're not motivated-.

The big three.

They're not motivated to go stink, though. They're competent. They're not incompetent. And DeLon Wright is going to be a tremendous asset for somebody. Look at that guy's advanced metrics.

For real, Bob always loved him.

He gets his hands on balls better than a compassionate. It's an amazing skill set. He's tremendous at this. Don't sleep on my guy, Kula Bali. Bilal Kula Bali. They actually, I think this new regime in Washington hit a draft pick.

Yeah, it does seem like it. This dude.

Is crazy long, has tremendous poise. He played with Wemby all year last year. He's not afraid of nothing. He thinks he belongs on a professional basketball court.

There is some quotes coming out about him from the players and coaches that are reminiscent of the baby rhinos stuff with Jaylen Carter and the Eagles. With the teammates are like, This guy. Jesus. Holy macro.

They suck, dude.

They do suck. Don't misunderstand. 24 wins is a W, though.

24 wins. You're not getting a 20.

Here's the reason.

You won't get to 20 wins. They will.

Start tanking at the trade deadline when most of these guys are gone.

They're going to go two for 28. But there are.

55 games between the start of the season and the trade deadline. So if they win 20.

If they go 20 and 30, if.

They go 20 and 30 to the first.

50.

Games, why not? Why can't they?

Because they're not good. They don't have any...

They're not even like a possible All-Star in this team house.

Well, Jordan Poole begs to differ. And he's going to show you- What are you talking about? Jordan Poole is going to show you that he's got... They were holding back. Steve Kerr and Dre Ma were holding in Golden State.

I actually think Jordan Poole, now that Denwitty looks like he's not going to have the ball enough, Jordan Poole is going to be our number one his teammates hate playing with him guy. That's my prediction.

I liked it. I read an article on Hooves Hype that Danilo Galinari said he couldn't wait to play the Celtics.

Oh, Revenge Game with Yallow?

What are you mad about?

Yeah, they did tell him that he was staying. How about Johnny Davis? You didn't mention him.

He's an unmentionable.

Howus. You missed on five straight first round picks until Kula Bali.

It's a whole new thing. Wait, we don't even know that that's a hit yet.

But I'm just at least giving it a do not know.

Kispert.

I like Kispert, but didn't they take him ninth?

Took him too high. Yeah. He can shoot, though.

Rosillo, is this 2024 Stealth Trade Machine team? Feels like there's going to be a lot of trade machine action with this team.

Yeah, but I don't know what do I want? I don't want Pool's contract. And I don't know that I want pool in a me against the world, Tupac's season. That's the other part. Kula Bali is going to do whatever he wants to do. Based on watching him play, I like Gafford. Kuzmo has actually been pretty good for him, and he got paid and maybe there's something there. But yeah, I think a lot of teams will call about Tias Jones.

I think pool's on the team the whole season, just for the record.

I think with that contract, yes.

If he plays really well, though, and his shooting percentages are close to what?

Because he shoots- Then keep him.

Right. We keep him. And maybe he's either a cornerstone piece as you grow or- I hate to.

Break it to you. You're keeping him either way. His contract could.

Be cheaper. No, his contract is going to look good in.

A year. If he's a cornerstone, you're keeping him. If he's not a cornerstone, you're not going to be able to trade him.

I think they are going to be able to trade him. He's in your life.

The three people in your life for the next few years are your wife, your son, and Jordan Pool. That's how it's going to play out.

Mile. Maybe me. He can have Chipotle. We like Chipotle at the house household.

I just don't see it. I'm going hard under. You're locking it?

Possible lock. Fine. Go ahead. I don't.

Think I'd lock it. I just think they get the firstthey get the pole position in the lottery with this team. I don't see a worst team.

There's too many professional players.

Their over-under is four-way.

Worst team. You're comparing it to Hinkie Sixers experiments. I think that's what's throwing you off here.

They're better than the Spurs. They're going to be more competitive than Portland.

House, your over-under is four-wins lower than every other team in.

The league. I think that's a mispricing.

This is fascinating now. We've got some serious, wizard's takes.

Usually, he's realistic with the Wizards, too.

Yeah, I think the other.

Thing is that- Something's going on with House. We're going to talk tonight.

There's nothing here that's core. There's nothing here that's like, Hey, even with Wmbunyama, San Antonio, even last year when they were tanking, they were still running stuff offensively. They were doing things. I think Detroit actually planned on being a lot better than they were last year. But then Cade goes down for the... There's not one guy in this wizard's roster where I think they're going to be like, Wow, we got to make sure we set the standard immediately, even though it's a really good for an office.

Who's your coach as?

Until Junior.

Did you have to check?

No, I wanted to make sure I didn't say Bickerstaff because we had a long run with Bickerstaff. He's the other worst coach in the East. West Until Junior is the worst coach in the East. And then Bickerson as the second worst coach in the East.

All right, I'm going to recap our over-unders, and then we're going to do locks. Celtics, 54 and a half, we all went over. Sixers, 47 and a half all went under. Knicks, 45 and a half, three overs. Nets, 37 and a half, all under. Toronto, 36 and a half. I went over, House went over. Rosilloow, under. Miami Heat, I went over. What did you do on that one? I didn't write a time, Rosilow. Over. And you're over as well? Yes. Okay, three overs for the Heat. Then the Atlanta Hawks, we were getting about them. Three overs. Orlando Magic, 37 and a half, three overs. But I think probably because Sarudy was here. There's an alternate universe where Sarudy is not here and maybe we're arguing more about the Magic.

I could change my.

Mind on it. That's fine. Charlotte, 31 and a half. Rosillo and House went over. I went under it. I don't feel great about it.

I don't feel great about the over.

Yeah, I just wish they went in the lead. Washington, 23 and a half.

Lock.

Under for me and Rosillo over for House. So there you go. All right, it's time for the Locks. House, what do you have for Locks out of the 30 teams?

How many are we doing? What's the.

Right number? You can do one. You can do three, you can do five. I'm probably doing six.

You're doing six.

My God. Well, I did seven last year. I think I went six and one. I'm good at these.

My locks. The best there ever is, man.

One of the best.

Atlanta over is a lock for me.

Is that a lock for you, Rosilloah?

Not a lock. Okay. Let's not lose our minds here.

Well, it's a lock for me, and it might be one of my favorites. What else has?

I can't do the Hornets, but I really want to do it. But I'm not going to do it.

Just do it, you wuss. I'm not going to do it. Do it.

You coward. I love the Pacers. The Pacers is a lock for me.

Okay. They're a lock for me as well.

Add me to the list. We love some Pacers basketball on.

This part. All right, Tyrese.

That was my favorite one.

It's a good one. It's too low.

It's too low.

We're all in agreement it's too low.

How else? Who else?

I am on the Suns Under. That's a lock for me. We did it last year. Eddie makes fun of the podcast for it. It's fine.

I'm going to do... I'm not going to do a lock. I really like that under, though, for them.

Who? Phoenix? Yeah. I think it's good.

It's really good. I'm not going to lock it because I don't feel as strongly about it as the other ones, but I really like that one. All right, what else?

I'm only going to do four. It's the Clippers Can Forever Fuck Off Lock of the year. The Clipper's is a lock under for me.

Okay. Rosillo?

Denver over Lock. Okay. 52 and a half. New Orleans over Lock. 44 and a half. Pacers over.

Yep.

And I'm just staying positive here. Miami Over.

And.

Then Dallas over. No unders. I don't want to be negative.

That's a Dallas over.

That's amazing.

This.

Is a positive guy.

You're up to something. How many did you just do? You did five. I want to add one more. Okay. Boston over. I do believe in Boston. I'm looking down at my notes, I left it off. Boston Over. I love the Boston Over.

I'm just stupidified by Dallas for you, Rosillo. You're saying Kyrie is going to have a normal season?

No, I'm never guaranteed that. I just.

Think that Lucas- Just a blind Luca bet.

It would be a blind Luca, like everything they did around it. And he comes in more motivated than ever before after last season being that disappointing.

My locks are... Weird they have, I think, all overs. Lakers over 47 and a half. Oklahoma City over 44 and a half. I'm really jealous of House of Phoenix Under, but I'm not going to do it. I am going to do Under for Portland. I'm a 27 and a half because I think that team is built to not be good this year. I have the Atlanta over 41 and a half. I have the Miami chip on their shoulder over 44 and a half. Us Against the World. Fuck you, 45 and 37 season. I also have the Indiana over 38 and a half. And I would have had the Philly, but it dropped enough that I don't feel like it's a lock because if and B just plays. They were so good last year that there's a world where they figure.

Their shit out. Maxie, even if.

Hard as short as... Yeah, that's a stay away to me. I really want to do Washington as an underlock. Should we just do that as a fuck you to house?

Yeah.

Put me down. Go ahead. I'm down too.

I did not give my Washington PIC as a lock.

All right. Me and Rosillo are under 23 and a half lock. Fine. The Wizards.

Fine. Every W I'm sending you. I'm going to create a Twitter X handle for it.

That's it for the special three-part over our other extravagance. And that was really fun. We kept good time. Rosillo stayed engaged.

You.

Still not coming to dinner. The house stayed awake. That's it. Thank you so much to Steve Saruddy for flying out for us. Thanks to Ryan Rosillo as well. Don't forget to listen to the Ryan Rosillo Podcast. Don't forget to listen to Joe House and the Mary of the Gamble show on Fairway Rowland. I will see you on this feed on Thursday. Must be 21-plus and President select states, Fando is offering online sports wager in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800, gambler, or visit fando. Com/rg in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. You can call 1-800, Next Step or text, Next Step to 5-3-3-4-2 in Arizona. Call 1-88-789-777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut. 1-800, 9 with it in Indiana. 1-800-522-4,700 or visit K. S. Gamblinghelp. Com in Kansas. 1-8-7-7-7-0 stop in Louisiana, mdgamblinghelp. Org, Maryland 1-800, gambler. Net in West Virginia or 1-800-5-2-2-4-7-00 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelp. Line ma. Org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-8-7-7-8-hope and why, or text, Hope and why, in New York.