Transcribe your podcast

Thank you for listening to this podcast, one production now available on Apple podcast, podcast, one Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.


Hey everybody. How do we predict a presidential winner? I'm going to give you an inside look to my ten unique and original keys to see who's going to win in November. Here's how we predict a president. I think you're going to really enjoy it. Please consider supporting us at Charlie Kirkham Report. If you guys are a monthly supporter, you guys get involved and invited to an exclusive Zoome call once a month at Charlie Cook dot com slash report.


Maybe give ten dollars, fifty dollars or five hundred dollars. Any level of support helps keep us moving strong and helps the Charlie Cook Show get in front of millions of more people, helps cover our production costs and more at Charlie Cook dotcom slash support. If you guys want to win a signed copy of the New York Times best seller The Magga Doctrine. Subscribed to the Charlie Kirk show type and Charlie Kirk show your podcast provider hits subscribe, give us a five star review and email us your subscription at Freedom at Charlie Cook, Dotcom Freedom at Charlie Kirkconnell.


If you guys want to get involved, Turning Point USA, go to CPUSA, Dotcom, TPE, USA, Dotcom. Buckle up, everybody. We are going to basically show you who's going to win in November in a way that no one else is to miss.


Episode. Buckle up. Here we go.


What you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Cook is on the college campus. I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Charlie Kirk's run in the White House. But I want to thank Charlie's an incredible guy, his spirit, his love of this country. He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.


That's why we are here.


How do we predict a president? There's a lot of prognosticators and pundits out there that have made a career out of being wrong, sort of people out there that try to say they know exactly what is going to happen and to know in November and they can see into the future. Now, most of these people have been professionally wrong about basically everything over the last four years. They said Trump will never run. They said Trump was going to lose. They said that Trump would get us into a war.


They said Trump would crash the stock market when President Trump is actually rebuilt the stock market twice as of today. Now, the stock market is plus twenty nine thousand points on the Dow, which now President Trump has done twice, something that no president can ever say they have ever done with that kind of monumental economic gain and recovery all within one term together. So these experts have been wrong about basically everything. And so some of these people that are in the presidential prediction business, such as Allan Lichtman, they've been they've been pretty accurate.


Allan Lichtman is someone who says he can predict presidents based on a certain formula that he has, but he says Trump is going to lose.


I think we should take a pause and look into actually the data of how Allan Lichtman formulates a president. Allan Lichtman has what he calls the presidential keys. Now, Allan Lichtman says that there are 13 keys in a system, some of which being a good or bad economy, whether someone's an incumbent. What are the biggest issues in the country? Some of them, I think, are very interesting and can be helpful.


However, I actually have a system that I have developed myself over the last couple of years of about 10 keys that are a little bit different than Allan Lichtman, 13 keys.


These 10 actually come from grassroots political experience. I've been in politics knocking on doors since I was 14 years old in the suburbs of Chicago. I got my start working for then Congressman Mark Kirk. No relation. Then Senator Mark Kirk did a little bit of work for then presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Kind of regret doing that involved in many races throughout the years, Illinois gubernatorial races. And of course, I had a front seat to the greatest political upset in twenty sixteen, President Donald Trump defeating Hillary Clinton.


Now, I accurately predicted that President Donald Trump was going to win in 2016, the day before the election of when I publicized the map, when I said that President Donald Trump was going to win Michigan and he was going to win the Electoral College, it came under vast amounts of repudiation and condemnation and mockery from the chattering class. So let's take a step back and say, how do we know someone is going to win now? We don't know for certain, but I think it's really interesting.


When I started to think about this and our team here on The Charlie Cook Show started to formulate, how can you accurately predict a presidential winner? Now, today at Real Clear Politics, usually the betting averages are something very interesting. The betting averages right now, the latest latest betting odds, forty nine point eight percent chance that Biden is going to win, forty nine point seven percent chance that Trump is going to win point one percent difference in the betting averages.


So for all these people, I think they know exactly what is going to happen. They're wrong. So if you are losing hope that President Trump may or may not win because the national polls or because some of the polls that might have came out today that show Donald Trump down nine in Arizona, which I don't believe at all, then you have to actually take pause and say, what do they say in 2016? With that, let's take a little refresher and remind ourselves what all these experts, when all these pollsters, when all these professional political pundits were saying just four years ago, play tape on.


Sorry. OK, here we are.


And which Republican candidate has the best chance of winning the general election of the declared ones right now, Donald Trump.


And so right now, Mr. Trump, to answer your call for political honesty, I just want to say you're not going to be president.


All right. But come on, come on, buddy, all let's say cow poo poo aside, there is zero chance we'll be seeing you being sworn in on the Capitol steps with your hand on a giant golden Bible. I'll make a prediction, though, for you. I don't really get into predictions much, but this one, I'll go way out on a limb. Donald Trump will never, ever be president of the United States, that Trump should not be in this race.


He's an absurdity. He is a travesty.


Donald Trump will never be elected president. United States. Donald Trump is the here today gone tomorrow candidate for president of the United States.


And it goes on. And it goes on and it goes on. These professional political pundits and congresspeople were mocking the fact that Donald Trump is going to win. So here are the 10 keys that we have here in the Charlie Kirk Show, how we can predict who is going to win the election. There was one of the reasons as to why we saw that President Trump was going to win as we were actually talking to normal people. We were talking to carpenters, we were talking to welders.


We were talking to average middle class voters. And we able to realize and recognize there was something very special happening in our country. I sent out this tweet the day before the election and said, final prediction, Michigan going to go to Trump or go red. And at the end I said, let's see what happens. One of the favorite Donald Trump quotes. Let's see what happens. So here are the 10 keys to victory. And I think all of them are actually ways that some of you that want to get President Donald Trump re-elected, you can actually participate when you look at what actually matters to moving the dial.


Number one is trends. The most important thing that no one talks about is that an election is not just a Polaroid shot, it is a moving picture. And so President Trump is trending in the right direction. Joe Biden is generally trending in the wrong direction. So you have to understand, when you talk about political polls, you have especially political races, there are multiple variables. It's not just is Donald Trump surging, it's also is the opponent descending.


You have one candidate that is actually doing worse and one candidate's doing better.


And so for Joe Biden, that's exactly the case. It's Joe Biden is actually sinking in the polls while Donald Trump is surging in the polls, you might say. Well, Charlie, of course, that's the case. That's not always the case. Someone's favorability might stay the same where Donald Trump might recover some of those numbers because of undecideds or third party voters. So you just kind of look at some of this polling post convention. And this is a this is political polls on Twitter.


Biden is down among black voter voters. Trump is up. Biden is down among Hispanic voters, Trump is up. And you just look at Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania voter poll in the general election match up. All registered voters in July had 53 percent for Biden, 40 percent for Trump. Now it's 49 percent for Biden, 45 percent for Trump. So if you look at poll after poll, this is why I like the real Clear Politics polling average. You can start to see the actual trend lines of what's happening.


I don't like to cherry pick certain polls. I said I instead look at what is the general trajectory of the race. Now, by the way, this is a massive movement for President Trump in Pennsylvania. Trump is down by two with likely voters in a poll that had Hillary Clinton winning Pennsylvania by six points, not to mention just a nine point shift in the last month. And the Democracy Institute poll from the end of August shows that President Trump is up nationally in battlegrounds.


That's right, nationally and in battleground. So these polls are actually all trending favorably for the president in the CNN poll. This is something very interesting. CNN very carefully and very subtly removed Iowa as one of their battleground states and their battleground tracker, and they added Colorado and Virginia almost taking out Iowa and saying we don't want to track those anymore. And they added, I Virginia and Colorado. Maybe they're seeing something that we're missing. And so what's really interesting about that is that CNN is analyzing a lot more polling than they're publishing and mind you, they include Ohio in their battleground column.


Ohio is not a battleground, it's a blowout state for the president, Trump is going to win Ohio by eight to 10 points, calling it right here and right now.


Now, trusting of all the polling aside, you have to look at trends, do not look at polls with the ever increasing number of makes, Fiat, KIYA, et cetera, and models. Pasifika five. It is now impossible to stock all the parts you need in a traditional chain store front. Wilander often pointless or seemingly intimidating questioning and wait while the counterman orders the parts on his computer, choosing the only brand his warehouse has happened to carry. You have computers with access to Roc Auto Dotcom at home and in your pocket.


One reason to repair and maintain your cars is to save money and that you can then use for other important things like mortgages or food. So why would you choose to spend 30, 50 or 100 percent more on the exact same part? So that's why you guys got to go to rock auto. Dotcom chain stores have different price tiers for professional mechanics and do it yourselfers. Yet rock outcomes prices are the same for everybody and are reliably low. Bestival prices at rock bottom dotcom are always reliably low for the same professionals and do it yourselfers.


So if you go to rock bottom dotcom, just tell them Charlie Kirks sent you. And if you guys you've rock, just tell them that Charlie Kirk is the best entailment Charlie Crist sent you. It helps everybody and go to rock star dot com right now. Always remember rock out or dotcom, the only parts you ever need. Amazing selection, reliably low prices, all the parts your car will ever need.


Ricardo Dotcom, the number two key of how to predict a president is enthusiasm. Who has a more enthusiastic campaign, more enthusiastic polling base, who are more enthusiastic base of support, Simon CLO's from the Democracy Institute, which I cited earlier, the enthusiasm gap is massive, very supportive of President Trump, 82 percent, very supportive of Vice President Biden, 40 percent over double the enthusiasm for President Trump. And just look at the viewership and fundraising from the convention.


This is from Breitbart overthe four day convention. President Donald Trump and the Republican Party earned one hundred forty seven point nine million viewers and raised 76 million dollars in cash over its four day convention. Joe Biden and his radical Bolshevik Jacobin party earned only one hundred twenty two million viewers and raised 70 million dollars. And the president's campaign in the RNC at the beginning of August surpassed one billion dollars, raised the most ever for any campaign ever in the history of politics.


And you can see the enthusiasm when it comes to crowd size as well. I'm fully convinced that Joe Biden doesn't want to come out of his basement and hold rallies because he knows that crowd size will pale in comparison to President Trump's events. I'm actually a big believer that crowd size matters. If someone's going to show up to your event, if someone's going to park at your event and someone's going to show up and take a day off of work to go support you, they are going to go vote.


They're going get others to vote. And it's just a example of a mass movement behind a candidate number three.


Grassroots energy and volunteers. It's not talked about at all by the pundit class or the professionals in cable news. They don't talk about this even in the slightest about how grassroots energy and the volunteer base is one of the leading indicators. I actually think it is the greatest indicator to determine a campaign shot at victory. Look at the level of grassroots support, grassroots donations. How many small dollar donors are there? Are people organically going out in the streets with your message?


Are people organizing behind your campaign without someone telling them or paying them to do so? Are people asking repeatedly, how can I help? How can I help? President Donald Trump is beating Joe Biden by far when it comes to grassroots energy. And you might be saying, well, Charlie, you just mentioned enthusiasm. This is different. These are how many volunteers are showing up to go knock on doors for Joe Biden. Very few to any how many people are showing up to actually help the candidate.


And if you've seen some of these boat parades over the weekend, it's an absolutely incredible sight to see. I'm talking about hundreds, if not thousands of people taking time out of their weekends to load up their boats with Trump flags and signs and parade around lakes, rivers, bays, gulfs, whatever you might see. It is an incredible sight to see. And on the volunteer front, check out this headline from Politico. And this should blow you away.


Trump's campaign knocks on a million dollars a week. Biden's campaign knocks on zero. Can you believe that Biden in the Democratic National Committee aren't sending volunteers or staffers to talk with voters at home and don't anticipate doing anything more than dropping off literature unless the crisis abates? The campaign and the Democratic National Committee, I'm reading from Politico here, think they can compensate for the lack of in-person canvassing with phone calls, text new forms, disorganizing, a virtual meet up with voters.


This is August 4th, 2020, just about a month ago. This is a huge difference between the Barack Obama campaign back in 2008 and 2012 and Joe Biden, one of the main reasons why Obama was able to build that successful Obama coalition is that Obama was a community neighborhood organizer. He knew how to build people and build successful coalitions from the ground up. He was a phenomenal organizer, awful president, but a phenomenal organizer. Biden is not simply utilizing volunteers.


You know why? Because there are none. There's no one to organize, there's no one showing up early on Saturday morning saying, hey, can I please go knock on doors for Joe Biden, that doesn't exist. There's a massive gap when it comes to persuasion on the side of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. When you're knocking on a million dollars a week and you're the Trump campaign, that's only going to wrap up because we ramp up we at a turning point, action our five points for organization running Students for Trump.


This weekend, we are going to be in North Carolina knocking on thousands and thousands and thousands of doors. We are going to be knocking on thousands of doors to get President Trump re-elected. And when you count those thousands and thousands of doors altogether, that makes a difference. The people you're communicating with, the votes that you're driving out to get somebody elected, a ground game can get you elected. Joe Biden has no ground game. This is the one of the most UN known variables right now happening in the entire political landscape is how Joe Biden is completely and totally missing any form of a ground game.


And when you're not knocking on doors, there's other things you're not doing. You're not actually organizing all the different facets of an infrastructure that takes you to victory. You do not have a ground game, then you do not have a campaign. It's that simple. Barack Obama was one of the best organizers ever when it came to building a grassroots coalition. So here's number four. This is a this is a hotly debated topic amongst political. Campaign experts, but I take a very, very strong stance on this yard signs matter.


That's right, I believe yard signs matter. I believe that bumper stickers matter. I believe that yard signs matter. And so number four that I have on this list of predictors of someone who's going to win is are they actually publicly displaying support for you now? Actually, I think that there is an under display of support for President Trump. I think more people would show support for President Trump if they were able to do so if without physical retribution, without losing their job about their career being put in jeopardy.


Now, we knocked on over 15000 doors in western Michigan. We being turning point action and students for Trump, 15000 doors. I drove all throughout western Michigan. I drove throughout Holland, Michigan, throughout Grand Rapids. I did probably about three and a half hours of driving that weekend, spoke at a great church with Pastor Cody. We had a great job, great time. I counted. I kid you not well over 600 Trump for president signs.


600, I had a running tally. Now, mind you, it is a conservative part of the state, but 600. I counted to Biden for president signs to. We had one of our teammates here at Turning Point action on The Charlie Cook Show drive across the country from Arizona to Washington, D.C.. He counted on his drive over 260 Trump signs and for Biden for president signs. Pretty incredible. That tells you something about who's willing to display support, who's willing to actually advocate for a candidate.


Now, you might say, well, Charlie, those are all rural, more conservative parts of. The country. Well, I brought this up a little over a month ago when Biden was trending in the correct direction of the polls, a member of our team was in Portland. You know, many Biden signs he saw one. BLM Inc. abolished ICE and the pro Riet pro terrorism signage outnumbered the Joe Biden signage 100, maybe even 200 to one. And I'm hearing similar stories all across the country.


So ask yourself and really think about it. How many Biden bumper stickers have you seen on the roads?


And maybe Trump wins now, people and I fully understand this, and I'm not saying that they're totally wrong. I'm just saying I completely disagree with the analysis. As people say, yard signs don't mean anything. I don't agree with that. I think that neighbors see leaders who put yard signs on their yard. It is a public display of support. You see it when you come in and out of your driveway. You're thinking about politics or think about persuading people.


I think that it is a multipoint boost. A lot of campaigns disagree, and I think those campaigns are wrong and they lose. How often do you hear about Biden yard signs getting destroyed, stolen or burned? Just recently, there was a 12 year old boy in Denver, Colorado, that was assaulted for having a Trump sign in swing states like Arizona, where the turning point USA headquarters is. I'm seeing such a lack of Biden enthusiasm, I don't think they could give out all the Biden signs if they tried.


I know the Trump campaign is worried that there's actually going to be a yard sign deficit or a yard sign deficiency. We had a turning point action type action. Dotcom are actually going to be giving out yard signs to the best. Grassroots volunteers from all across the country will be announcing that very soon. And this is not a new phenomenon, by the way. Check out this headline from Reuters. In February of this last year, rosy polls, but few yard signs, how Joe Biden stumbled in Iowa.


You might remember that Joe Biden lost Iowa badly after billing himself as the most electable candidate. And here's another from the Chico State University newspaper. So where the Biden bumper stickers this time this time last presidential election, Hillary Clinton bumper stickers were all over cars and Chico. The few Trump stickers were here and they're usually torn off. But Biden signs, stickers, not a chance. This at the university in California. There's questions about enthusiasm for Joe Biden.


Not good, Joe. And there was enthusiasm problems for Hillary. There's definitely enthusiasm problems for Joe Biden.


Good ranchers began with the standard of bringing top quality, 100 percent American born, raised and harvested meat to families across America. This vision was instilled into them from their grandparents that owned community grocery stores and believed in trust, charity and family values, good ranchers, dotcom partners directly with only American ranchers from across the U.S. to bring the highest quality meat straight to your door. Good ranchers. Dotcom gets 100 percent American raised beef right to your door beef the way it used to be.


Get America's best grass fed beef delivered straight to your door. Don't forget that shipping is always free and the taste is always delicious. Good ranchers, dotcom, 100 percent American beef, chicken and more support. American farmers support the American economy, skip the grocery store mystery meat and buy directly from good ranchers. NORCOM That's good ranchers with an S dotcom. But the promo code is Charly's. You just go to good ranchers of the dotcom ranchers and right now and use a promo code, Charlie, and save 30 dollars for a limited only good ranchers dot com promo code.


Charlie, I love high quality meat. Not that nonsense that you buy at the grocery store. So go to good ranchers dot com. That is good ranchers dot com promo code.


Charlie number five is social media velocity. I've come up with this term myself and I think this is something we do not talk enough about. Let's run through some of the social media comparisons between Biden and Trump. On an average day, President Trump sends about fourteen posts to twenty eight million Facebook followers on his campaign account, Joe Biden delivers about half that many posts to an audience of about two million on Twitter. President Donald Trump has eighty five million plus followers and Joe Biden has about nine point one million followers.


President Donald Trump and his campaign is outspending Biden on Google and YouTube of advertising of nearly three to one on Instagram. President Trump has nearly 22 million followers. Joe Biden has over three million and over seven to one difference. Look at this headline from The New York Times that came out last week. What if Facebook is the real silent majority? Right wing influences are dominating the political discussions on Facebook, raising questions about whether it will translate into electoral success in November.


There is grassroots success there, unbelievable grassroots support happening from the right, and it's outpacing the left in a huge way online. The author of the article, Kevin Rose, ranks the top performing link posts by U.S. Facebook pages every 24 hours. Check out the list from yesterday. Diamond Silk David Jay Harris Jr., Breitbart, CNN, Ben Shapiro for America, Dan Bongino, NPR, Huffington Post and David J. Harris, Jr.. Many of them are our friends.


Seven out of 10 of those are right leaning and that's just sharing of the links. And that doesn't include viral content videos or posts, the New York Times article ended with this. Brad Parr scaled the digital director of President Donald Trump's 2016 campaign, told 60 Minutes that if everything Mr. Trump did that year, the thing that actually moved the needle was Facebook.


Facebook was the method, Mr. Brockhouse, Mr. Scale said it was a highway which he drove his car on that highway still open, and right now the fastest cars on it have Magga bumper stickers. Now, before we get into the six key that we have exclusively here on the Charlie Kirk show, and we have some tape to play for you here that show you exactly that. I'm going to be taking your questions here at the end of this program. So just e-mail us your questions.


Freedom at Charlie Kirkham, freedom at Charlie Kirk Dotcom. And if we select your question, you guys win a signed copy of The New York Times best seller, The Magga Doctrine, if we select your questions. So e-mail us right now, freedom at Charlie Dotcom. So here's something that I believe is not talked about enough to the three top three issues that are in the country correlate with the issues that you want to be talking about. For President Trump, the top three issues are law and order, the economy and preserving our culture and saving the country.


For Biden, it is BLM Inc. It is the virus and it is the Democrat wish list. Those are the top three. But here's really what we're hearing out of Joe Biden, which is hating Donald Trump, weaponized racial group, racial grievance and the Chinese coronavirus. Biden doesn't have issues that he's running on. He doesn't. And he's starting to just realize that it's hurting him again. It took Don Lemon to raise the red flag on CNN. For Joe Biden to realize that he's not having law and order as an issue is actually hurting him.


Play tape.


I do think that this what you said was happening in Kenosha is a Rorschach test for the entire country. And I think this is a blind spot for Democrats. I think Democrats are ignoring this problem or hoping that it will go away and it's not going to go away. And so unless someone comes up with a solution over the next 73 days or 70. So how many days? Sixty eight days, 68 days. So it's not going to the problem is not going to be fixed by then.


But what they can do and I think maybe Joe Biden may be afraid to do it. I'm not sure. Maybe he will. Maybe he is. He's got to address it. He's got to come out and talk about it. And so Don Lemon here playing political campaign manager for the entire Democrat Party publicly. Basically, was the shot in the dark. All of a sudden, Democrats said, oh, yeah, you're right. And next thing you know, Biden is traveling to Kenosha and all of a sudden the peaceful protests went to actually all the destruction.


Is Donald Trump's fault like that? He's also rolling out major national TV ads on this theme, part of the largest ever for his campaign, a 45 million dollar ad spend to re-establish himself as the law and order candidate, which is just laughable. And this is all because the Democrats called the riots and the arson and the terrorism peaceful protests throughout the entire month of July and August. Number seven, incumbent. If you're an incumbent, you're very hard to beat.


This is this is historically an insurmountable advantage. There's only been two incumbents that have lost since 1980, and that is Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, both for different reasons. The one that really lost as a true incumbent would be Jimmy Carter. George H.W. Bush was, of course, an incumbent, but there were two extenuating circumstances. He was an incumbent after serving as eight years as vice president. So people were just ready for a party switch.


And also, Ross Perot really chiseled a lot of votes away from George H.W. Bush running for re-election in 1992. Trump is able to use his incumbency to his political advantage, perhaps better than almost anyone else, I think, in the modern political era. For example, have his RNC renomination speech on the White House lawn pardoning someone during the RNC and doing a naturalization ceremony from the White House, holding campaign rallies in front of Air Force One, securing once in a generation peace deals in the Oval Office while Joe Biden is in his basement holding his press conference from the James Brady briefing room in the White House.


And like I said earlier, the president has access to narrative setting message show because of this president, Donald Trump is able to actually do things, not just talk about things. Vice President Biden is unable to do things. So there are three ways to grade candidates. There's what you did, what you're doing, what you're going to do. Only an incumbent is able to actually play in that middle bracket, that second bucket. Joe Biden can't actually talk about what he's doing because he's a challenger.


That's why beating an incumbent is so hard, because you're able to say, here's what I did. Here's what I'm doing here and I'm going to do. Or Joe Biden can only say, here's what I did here, is that I'm going to do. And what he did actually contradicts what he wants is going to do. And actually, he didn't do anything except bad things. And no one actually believes what he's going to do. So every day President Donald Trump can actually use the office of the presidency to build goodwill amongst the American population.


He can use the office of the presidency to actually build coalitions of political support. He can use the office of the presidency to be able to broaden his appeal to likely voters. He could take advantage of traveling around the country to take advantage of the fact that he has taxpayer funded travel. And some people say, well, that's not right. Well, every every incumbent president has this. You have the biggest plane. You've got Secret Service protection, and you could go do official visits and people might interpret it politically.


You also take advantage of the fact that the Dow hit 29000 points today and take credit for it. So any good thing that happens in a country an incumbent can take credit for the challenge is when things aren't going well, you take responsibility for it. Key number eight and how to predict a president. More campaign stops. No one talks about this. Very few people do. I believe whoever does more campaign stops generally wins. This is obvious that Trump is winning here.


He did more campaign stops in Hillary.


In fact, it was four to one while Joe Biden was in Wilmington, Delaware, today in his basement, Donald Trump was in Wilmington, North Carolina campaigning. President Donald Trump did five different campaign stops while Joe Biden avoided his own convention. Joe Biden is literally playing follow the leader right now after the DNC. While pundits did a victory lap on his failing convention, Joe Biden released a statement saying he was content to stay in his basement for the rest of the campaign and not have any stops.


Now, after seeing the incredible and monumental success of the RNC and the optics, all of a sudden, Joe Biden is now emerging from his basement. Here's the brilliance of what President Donald Trump was able to do by having multiple campaign stops and actually campaigning around the country and communicating to voters is that he actually forced to campaign what was once a referendum on President Donald Trump is now Biden versus Trump. That's a completely different landscape politically to be playing on.


So Joe Biden is visiting Wisconsin tomorrow for the first time in three years. Here's a very simple question. Why is Joe Biden able to visit Kenosha tomorrow? But he wasn't able to do his Democratic convention in Wisconsin two weeks ago. What's different?


The difference is the poll numbers, not the virus, which you might say, well, you know, that's a serious question that Joe Biden should have to ask from reporters, say, well, welcome to Kenosha. Why are you here now? Why didn't you come to your convention two weeks ago? Why didn't you actually come to your nominating convention?


The reason that the polls are tightening and he knows it and the enthusiasm is on President Donald Trump's side and they're freaking out in the Biden campaign, as you guys know, paying out of your own pocket for gear that you need to do your job is pretty awful if you're high. Searching for military or first responder discounts, they're hard to find, so if you're in any of those fields, listen very carefully because there's a platform called Guddi It's terrific.


Guvs X works directly with brands to negotiate the best prices possible because you deserve the gear you need at the prices you've earned. Plus, you can trust that the gear you've ordered is 100 percent authentic, direct from the manufacturer. There's a huge collection of gear and apparel from popular brands, all in one convenient location. You see X honors your service and gives back to your communities. So if you're an American of service, a current or former member of the military firefighting front line, medical or law enforcement communities or the emergency medical joint govt acts for free.


Enjoy a community that honors and gives back to patriots like you. If you've got military of first responder background, visit Gov.., that's Gov and sign up for free for instant access to tons of deals and a community that honors your service. It's promo code kurk for fifteen dollars off first orders of fifty dollars or more. This is a terrific service for those of us that have served our country, Gov. Geof, use that promo code Kaixi, R.K. Key number nine and how to accurately predict a presidential winner.


I have a theory that the more exciting candidate wins than actually the boring candidate traditionally loses. Let's actually work backwards. President Obama was way more exciting than Mitt Romney and John McCain in 2012 and 2008. George W. Bush was far more exciting than John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000, Bill Clinton was way more exciting in 96 and way more exciting in 92. Ronald Reagan was far more exciting in 84 and in 88, I can go backwards in time.


In the 1960 election of Richard Nixon versus John, JFK, JFK was way more exciting than Richard Nixon, far more exciting. So Richard Nixon did eventually win the presidency in 1968.


Do you know why Richard Nixon actually ended up winning the presidency in 1968 because of the riots? There's a huge issue in the country in 1968 with social unrest. Richard Nixon was actually former vice president. Under Dwight D. Eisenhower and former governor of California, Richard Nixon was a power hungry politician, one in 68 won even more convincingly. In 1972, his vice president, Spiro Agnew, resigned. Gerald Ford, who I believe was majority leader at the time.


Is that right? I don't think he was speaker of the House minority leader, not majority leader. He was minority leader, ended up becoming vice president of the United States. And then Richard Nixon resigned. And then Gerald Ford ended up becoming the only unelected president in American history. And you know who the chief of staff to Gerald Ford was? Dick Cheney. It's an interesting little factoid. And then in 1976, actually, Ronald Reagan challenged Gerald Gerry Ford to the nomination in 1976 unsuccessfully, and then Ronald Reagan won the nomination in 1980 and beat Jimmy Carter, the incumbent.


And this also applies to primaries. We're not going to get too much into this. JFK beat Lyndon Baines Johnson in the 1960 primary. We can go into that. But I don't want to get too much into primaries. But the exciting candidate usually wins. Donald Trump is far more exciting than Joe Biden. Let me tell you that far more interesting. Number 10 key. And please email us your questions. Freedom at Charlie Cook, dotcom freedom at Charlie Cook Dotcom.


And if I select your question, you guys win a signed copy of the Magga Doctrine. Number 10, be on the right side of the unexpected. This is an easy way of saying it's better to be lucky than good. Almost always there is an October surprise be on the right side of that October surprise. Whatever that might be right now, President Donald Trump was right on the July and August surprise, which was the endless riots on the streets of America.


There was an unexpected to me. I know the I know the the base of the Democrat Party. I know the base of the arsonist left. So whatever ends up happening in the month of October, it might be a foreign conflict. I don't even want to speculate what it is because it's probably going to be a tragedy. If President Donald Trump is on the right side of that surprise, you will see the polling reflect that. You want to be on the correct side of the unexpected story, Biden for a couple of months was on the right side of the virus and the lockdown story.


So you put all those 10 things together, right side of the unexpected story, the more exciting candidate, more campaign stops, the incumbency advantage, the top three issues. And how do they line up with what the people want and the stances that people are taking? Social media velocity, which very few people talk about. And, of course, which we talk about, yard signs matter and branding matters, organic branding really, really matters. Grassroots energy and volunteers, who has more volunteers?


Who has more people showing up in the streets and knocking on doors, enthusiasm. And finally, of course, the trends, trends do matter and things can get very hot in the last 20 days of a campaign. Remember that things can change all suddenly as soon as people see the two candidates juxtaposed. Now, you might see, well, Charlie, debates aren't on there. I think debates do matter. I would have had a longer list of this.


I'm a believer that debates actually do move public opinion and people watch them. And I think these are going to be some of the most watched debates ever in the history of American politics. Before I get to that, here's what I actually think President Donald Trump has to pivot on. And usually pivot is a bad term. I think that President Donald Trump has to. Had the next chess move, I think President Trump can checkmate Joe Biden after Joe Biden fell into the riots and arson trap by doing nothing for six weeks.


Now, Joe Biden is like, no, no, I'm actually the law and order candidate. Now, here's here's a President Trump has to do call Joe Biden what he is locked down Biden. The lockdowns are the next big issue that no one is talking about. You can see this in the moral outrage that Democrats have in San Francisco of Nancy Pelosi walking to the hair salon. She said she was set up even though the evidence shows it was not a setup at all whatsoever.


Lockdown, Biden will lose the election if Joe Biden's on the side of arson and rioting, rioting and looters out of a swing voters remaining in America, they want the economy reopened. They want their lives back. And by the way, if Nancy Pelosi can go to a hair salon, we can vote in person, I was the first person to tweet that, by the way, everyone's been repeating over the last 24 hours. Just got to have a little bit of a copy right here.


And by the way, I don't mind. It's opensource as long as it's a good take. I don't mind if anyone says it. Let's get to some of your questions. Freedom at Charlie Dotcom. Freedom at Charlie Kirkconnell. Hello, my name is Susan. Hi, Susan. And my question is, what happens in the event Donald Trump wins but Biden does not concede it doesn't matter, does not take a concession. The Electoral College re-elect President Donald Trump, they're going to go to the streets, try to get violent.


This is why President Donald Trump needs to understand the channels of communication to be able to mobilize the National Guard. Susan, you win a signed copy of the New York Times bestseller The Magna Doctrine, sending your questions, everybody. What is the best response as a black man to my black peers when they ask me, what is President Trump's black agenda? Please help huge Trump supporter try to convince black people he's the guy for 2020. No. One, he stands for educational choice.


He believes that all Americans, including minority and black Americans, should have the freedom to be able to send your kid to a better school if you currently go to a failing school. This school, this issue disproportionately affects black America. That's number one. Number two, President Donald Trump delivered more results for the black community than Democrats ever have, despite not getting political votes or support from the black community. He went out of his way to go deliver results to a community that is insulted him, scorned him, persecuted him, went up against him.


Why did President Trump do that? Because President Donald Trump is a president for all Americans, not just a select few, not just the elites. If you want law and order, if you want the arson and the crime to stop, President Donald Trump is your guy. If you want jobs, manufacturing, come back to this country. President Donald Trump is your guy. The black agenda for Donald Trump is very simple. I'm going to restrict immigration and get more black people in the workforce.


I'm going to make America the drugstore, the world. We're going to make vitamin C, penicillin, Advil and essential pharmaceuticals again in our country here. We're going to employ black America and all Americans to help do that. I'm going to get the criminals and the thugs and the vigilantes that are on the streets of inner city black America in prison and make sure that they don't have same day bail for first degree murder like they do in the streets of Chicago.


President Donald Trump's black agenda is also about educational choice and family formation. The Democrats have had 45 years of absolute and total political monopoly, total political control. Explain to me why any Democrat and why any black person would go vote for a Democrat right now. I can't see a reason. They've destroyed Chicago, they destroy Atlanta, they destroy Philadelphia, the destroyed Detroit. They've destroyed New York City right now. And one of the unspoken stories happening in America is the death of New York City.


New York City is crumbling before us right now. And Mayor Bill de Blasio is keeping restaurant shut down. He is keeping schools closed. It is the crushing of a once great American city, all because of Democrats. And thanks for your question, Brian, do you want a signed copy of The New York Times best seller, The Magna Doctrine? Here's next question. Hi, Charlie. My question is this. Why are the Democrats, a media saying all the troubles are happening under President Donald Trump, but it's in Democrat run cities and states?


I just went through this. Lastly, why won't they denounce BLM antifa for what they're doing? Thanks, Kenny. What can you win a signed copy the a doctor. Make sure you email me to redeem it. And by the way, again, we are sending out 10 signed copies of the MCG doctrine to anyone who subscribes to us. If you're watching on Facebook, there's that link right now. Just press that subscribe button. Press that button opens up in your phone press unsubscribe button.


Email us freedom at Charlie Dotcom, freedom at Charlie Cook Dotcom. And if you want to contact us, I all the emails I glance at, I take an have at freedom at Charlie Cook dotcom question comments, feedback you name it. Freedom at Charlie Cook dotcom freedom at Charlie Cook Dotcom. Kennie to answer the question, look, the base of the Democrat Party is BLM Inc. The base is anti fo, the base is lawlessness and the base is arson.


They don't want to offend their base, our base, our normal, decent, reasonable people. And so we don't want to lose votes. But by just doing what we believe in and not defecting against our voters, we don't lose votes. And so BLM and Antifa, they are the enforcement wing of the Democrat Party and Tifa is the paramilitary arm of the Democrat Party. They just are. It is the unspoken rule that if you do not elect Joe Biden, we are going to go to the streets.


This is Joe Biden's form of a hostage situation in our country, basically saying if you do not support us, we are going to continue this political extortion and this political attack in the streets. And this is this is one of those evil things you can possibly do to tell a society that it is going to continue to burn unless you give us power. It is no different than water boarding an entire society, and Joe Biden basically says, you elected me, don't worry, I'll get these protests over with.


And some people are actually. And by the way, we've got a great email the other day, I don't know who sent it, maybe you're watching right now is a phenomenal email. I completely forgot about it. Forgot about the name, not forgot about it. He said where he said something really honest. He said. Charlie, I think they're right when they say the riots are going to stop if Joe Biden wins. I actually agree with that.


I think the riots will stop if Joe Biden wins. I think that's that's exactly the point. Is that what they're saying is actually true is that this is not actually a baseless extortion attempt, that they will turn off the right switch if they went. Next question here. We get a lot of mail in voting questions, by the way, we have a great podcast with Tom Fitton coming up that will answer all of your mail and questions. E-mail us right now, freedom at Charlie Dotcom.


What do you do when you're surrounded by liberals? You mentioned yard signs and bumper stickers. What advice do you have for someone that cannot share their views? I've already had a Gastón flag cut down from my flagpole. Look, I do not envy you one of the greatest blessings that God has given me. I can speak my mind every single day. I can say what I believe. I can do it publicly. I can inspire other people. My best opinion is as Jesse and thank you for that question.


And I hope that you don't get docked because you just got your question answered here on the Charlie Kirk show. You get a signed copy. The Magna Doctrine speak as loudly and confidently as you can to voice truth without compromising the safety of your family. I totally get it that if you're in downtown Portland or in New York City, you cannot wave a Trump flag. I get it. However, that just kind of shows the tyranny that exists in our country.


It is a sophomore material. Hi, Charlie. I'm sure reparations will be a question for the debates. If so, how does President Donald Trump answer David B.. It's a great question, David. In fact, I might actually tell the president this is my next conversation with him, I might actually I'm actually coming up with a debate prep document for the president of five trap questions. I think they're going to pin on him and how I would answer it if I were to believe that, you know, it would actually, you know, the president amazing.


And we have a great relationship. So here's how I would answer this. President Trump said, hey, look, I'm not a big fan of reparations and blaming people based on things they didn't do.


But if the Democrat Party is so focused on reparations, let's start with the history of their party. Why doesn't the Democrat Party pay the reparations opposing the 13th, 14th and 15th Amendment, the Democrat Party on the slaves Democrat Party is the party of KKK. The Democrat Party is the party of racism. Why doesn't Joe Biden pay reparations for being best friends with bitter segregationists? Why doesn't Joe Biden, if he can remember? Because he does have a great memory.


Why doesn't he ask his vice presidential nominee, his best friend, Senator Harris, his new best friend, former enemy, what she thought of his busing strategy when that little girl was her, when she had to actually get bussed? Why isn't Joe Biden here's an idea. Why doesn't Hunter Biden because he has all the money, because he sold us out to China, pay the reparations that the Democrat Party should pay. We as the Republicans have nothing to apologize for.


We're the party that freed the slaves past 13, 14, 15 amendment women's suffrage were the part of the Civil Rights Act. Black liberation. We don't care about the color of the skin. We care about your values. So if you guys want to have reparations, I'm not paying it. Republican Party's not paying it. The Democrat Party should pay it. That's how President Donald Trump should answer a question of reparations and the upcoming debate.


Next question. Hey, Charlie, huge fan for all you do. Do you think Donald Trump can win Maine in 2020? Yes, I love Maine. Maine is one of my favorite states in the entire country. I love all states equally. Unless you're from New York. Kidding haha. But I love Maine, some of the toughest people in the country, some of the best, most ethical people and the the least appreciated people. And they're good lobsterman.


I love the state of Maine. I really do. And I think Donald Trump can definitely win the 2nd Congressional District in Maine and I think he can win all of Maine. Please keep your questions coming. Freedom at Charlie Cook, dotcom freedom at Charlie Cook Dotcom. Here's one from Karl.


We got a lot of questions from people named Carl hey, Charlie, what do you think will happen in the vice presidential debates? Thanks so much. Well, Carl, you want a signed copy of The New York Times best seller, The Magna Doctrine? The VP debates are actually be some of the most important vice presidential debates in American history. Mike Pence versus Kamala Harris. Senator Harris is actually going to be kind of running as a co president. It's not just a traditional vice presidential debate.


This is going to be more important than ever before. And I think Mike Pence, some people call him the Silver Fox, is going to do very, very well. Mike Pence has been phenomenal lately. He was great on Fox News. I think the more Mike Pence, the better. I think Mike Pence needs to be deployed to congressional districts all across the country, the swing areas, these counties that really make a difference. Hey, guys, I encourage you to get involved.


A turning point, USA, USA, dot com. Check out our website. Get involved, get involved for the fight for Freedom and liberty at USA, Dotcom, USA, Dotcom. E-mail us your questions as always at Freedom at Charlie Dotcom, Freedom at Charlie Cook Dotcom and consider supporting us. We are doing two podcasts a day. I'm traveling the country of the best production team you can possibly imagine. The best fact finding team. We are finding the stories that matter.


We're explaining the issues. We go a little deeper. We give you the history and the philosophy, and we give you an analysis. These 10 things can predict a winner. In fact, they're original here in The Charlie Cook Show. They always work for me. Never, never let me down. I bet you guys can find who's going to win this race based on these ten things. And I think the harder we work, the more we volunteer, the more we're involved.


Things are constantly moving. It is not a snapshot in time. It is instead a motion picture all happening in front of us. Consider supporting us, Charlie Kirkham report. Email me as always, freedom at Charlie Kirk Dotcom. Thank you guys so much for watching. See you soon.


Now, panel, get all the quality parts you need at your locally owned Napa, because right now when you order from Napa online, you can pick up curbside of your local store in just 30 minutes or get your order delivered direct to your door with free one day shipping and over one hundred and sixty thousand quality parts when you spend thirty five dollars or more quality parts delivered quickly and safely. That's Napa. Know how to know how a participating stores started shipping and exclusions apply.